What’s the Future of Ethiopia?

What’s the Future of Ethiopia?

Ethiopia is a complicated ethnic federation consisting of various ethnicities and tribular regions. The survival of that nation amongst fastly fragmented African countries through ethnicities was an interesting study for political scientists. Often they relate to the future of Africa and, the last decade’s highest economic growth of 9.5% GDP astounded the world. Infrastructure, social development, and settlement of conflicts with Eritrea invited a lot of appraisal to them. But it seems in recent years Ethiopia has moved back to African norms and secessionism. Civil war commenced with the Federal Army and Tigray Region’s Army – TPLF, Unlike other African internal conflicts the intercession of Nobel Prize for Peace Winner Abiy Ahmed, the Prime minister of Ethiopia gained a lot of attention from the western world.

Ethiopia has a rich history like Egypt, China, and India. The country, largely ruled by the Amhara Kingdoms – in its modern history by abolishing the communist government; backed by the USSR, where Tigray’s People’s Liberation Front did a major role in the formation of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (merging the Amhara Democratic Party, Oromo Democratic Party, and the Southern Ethiopian Democratic Movement) in 1989.  As commanders in control, the Tigrayans who were 6% of the second most populated country of Africa, occupied a lion’s share of Ethiopian Orthodox, Government, Ministries, and Military. 33% of major Oromo people, 30% amphoric people, and almost 80 other ethnic groups marginalized pathetically after this phenom. Although economic growth and living standards started increasing they eventually get into war with the breakaway region called,  Eritrea. The corruption in the government increased enormously, the financial sector miserable collapsed, debt increased, elections were highly altered, and the 2015 election won by the TPLF was noted as one of the most corrupt elections in the last decade.

In the 2018 election, Amharas and Omoros united to elect Abiy as the Prime Minister who has a strong intention to unite the federation. He managed to form the Prosperity Party by joining  ADP and ODP the two majority ethnicities political party and expanded the party to other regions too. He ensured all ethnicity’s participation, women empowerment, free political detainees, and ended the long-running war with Eritrea. These efforts by Abiy gained international recognition and the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2019. The Tigrayans believe they are pushing to back-seat and stated Prosperity Party will lead to monarchy and pictured Abiy as a power-hungry leader. In the 2020 election when TPLF won with a huge majority in Tigray region, Abiy and the federation curtailed all grants and aids to the region which lead to civil war. On Nov 4th federation bases in the Tigray region were attacked by TPLF and Non-Tigraynas started to get attack by Tigrayans in the region and vice versa.

As the leader of the African Union and regional peacekeeper Ethiopia’s conflict always affects all sectors of the region, conflict continues outer of Tigray in the western region, Benishangul Gumuz reported; with 100 people died in violence after Abiy’s visit and SNNP province secessionism increasing swiftly. The international community looks to further development in the conflict that created two hundred thousand refugees to Sudan. Egypt is already in a dispute with Ethiopia for the dam construction across the Blue Nile and Eritrea is officially backed by Abiy as both of them are against TPLF. When pressure boosts to Abiy for the discussion he said it’s an internal issue only and no more talks on the topic, comments of Tedros Adhanom a prominent Tigray leader are also anticipating. Eritrean PM Isaias Afwerkis’s comment was more interesting, as he predicts Ethiopia’s future will be like Yugoslavia, but it is for sure powerful as it wholly decides not only the future of Ethiopia but also of entire Africa.

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