At Last, a Ceasefire—Will it Last?
After much uncertainty, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire, offering hope to the people of Gaza, the relatives of hostages taken by Hamas, advocates of peace and humanity, and the incoming U.S. President, Donald Trump. Weeks of rumors about efforts to broker a truce, primarily driven by Trump’s team, culminated in Qatar’s prime minister announcing on Thursday that the parties had reached an agreement. However, Israel’s delayed announcement caused confusion, raising fears of a breakdown reminiscent of past failures. Finally, Israel ratified the ceasefire deal to exchange dozens of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel and to pause the 15-month war in Gaza for an initial six weeks. Approved in a cabinet meeting early Saturday morning, the agreement specifies that the ceasefire will take effect on Sunday. Despite this progress, doubts persist about the durability of the ceasefire.
Israel’s military actions in Gaza, following Hamas’s brutal terrorist attack, have claimed nearly 50,000 lives. This figure remains uncertain due to the absence of unbiased sources, but the devastating impact is clear. Hamas launched a brutal assault, and Israel responded with fierce retaliation that left Gaza in ruins. Now, the conflict appears to be nearing a pause. Israel’s security cabinet approved a ceasefire agreement despite an unexpected delay on Friday. Far-right members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government threatened to oppose the agreement or resign, risking months of efforts to halt the violence. After a six-hour cabinet meeting extending well past the start of the Jewish sabbath, the government announced the agreement’s approval just after 1 a.m. Jerusalem time on Saturday, underscoring the critical importance of this moment.
In a separate meeting in Cairo, negotiators from Egypt, Qatar, the U.S., and Israel finalized all necessary arrangements to implement the Gaza truce deal, as reported by Egyptian state-linked media. However, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu’s hardline national security minister, who had earlier threatened to quit the government if it ratified the ceasefire deal—potentially collapsing the ruling coalition—issued a last-minute plea for other parliamentarians to vote against it. He claimed that the terrorists would inevitably try to harm and kill again. According to Israeli media, Ben-Gvir and far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich opposed the deal, while other ministers voted in favor. David Amsalem, a minister not part of the security cabinet’s voting plenary, also expressed opposition during the vote.
Under the first phase of the agreement, which will last 42 days, Hamas will release 33 hostages, including children, women , and men over the age of 50, who were captured during their October 7th raid that killed around 1,200 Israelis. In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinians linked to Hamas currently held in Israeli jails. About 100 of the Palestinians scheduled for release are serving life sentences for violent attacks on Israelis, including a minor detained for a 2023 shooting attack in Jerusalem that injured an Israeli soldier. The agreement also includes an exchange of bodies of deceased hostages and Hamas members and outlines the launch of a reconstruction plan for Gaza.
The future governance of Gaza remains an unsettled and fraught question. The Biden administration, along with much of the international community, has championed the idea of reinstating the Palestinian Authority—based in the semi-autonomous West Bank, and ousted from Gaza by Hamas during a brief civil war in 2007—as the governing entity for the strip. This proposal, however, faces staunch opposition from Israel, which has consistently dismissed the suggestion. The result is a murky outlook for Gaza’s political trajectory, emblematic of the broader challenges in untangling the region’s layered crises.
As both parties frequently reach and break ceasefire agreements, the longevity of the current truce remains uncertain. It is evident that peaceful coexistence is unlikely, as Hamas, rooted in an ideology that considers the destruction of the Jewish state an Islamic duty, fuels hostility among the population in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli politics revolve around security concerns, making future ceasefire violations almost inevitable.
Much of the situation depends on Netanyahu’s leadership. While the ceasefire may enhance his standing internationally and among the families of released hostages, it has left others deeply dissatisfied. This tension threatens to destabilize Netanyahu’s administration and pave the way for an even more hardline government, aligned with global trends toward the far right, which could adopt harsher measures in Gaza.
Currently, neither Hamas nor its primary backer, Iran, can effectively escalate their campaigns against Israel. Both have been severely weakened by the ongoing conflict, and their former levels of international support, aside from some backing from staunch Islamist factions and liberal voices, have waned. As a result, any attacks for Palestine risk further marginalization in the global arena.
The most significant hope for a lasting ceasefire may rest with Donald Trump, who has interests in the region and has previously succeeded in fostering alliances between Israel and several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. His efforts to strengthen ties with Gulf nations and apply greater pressure on Iran could potentially reshape the region’s dynamics, enhancing Israel’s security and providing relatively safer borders. Israel already maintains strong relationships with its neighboring countries—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. While Syria under Bashar al-Assad once posed challenges, the current Turkey-aligned government in charge appears less hostile toward Israel. Meanwhile, Lebanon now features a pro-Western president who aims to curtail Hezbollah’s influence. As a result, Israel’s primary security concern has been largely reduced to Gaza.
Though its endurance remains uncertain, the agreement has briefly interrupted the persistent violence, providing a fleeting but hopeful prospect for lasting peace in a region long plagued by conflict. For now, Israel, Qatar, and the United States deserve credit for facilitating an accord that prevents further bloodshed in Gaza—though, as with all previous truces, its durability remains a matter of considerable doubt
