Who Will Govern Gaza?
Fifteen months after Hamas’s deadly assault on Israel and the subsequent military retaliation, a fragile ceasefire has paused the violence, leaving Gaza battered and broken. This narrow strip of land along the Mediterranean, once envisioned as a cornerstone of a Palestinian state, has again drawn global focus, fueling both solidarity across the Muslim world and a rise in antisemitic episodes. Since seizing control from the Palestinian Authority in 2007, Hamas has claimed to govern on behalf of Gaza’s population, despite the absence of electoral legitimacy. Its prolonged confrontation with Israel, however, has left its leadership fractured, its regional alliances shaken, and its infrastructure gutted. A rapid return to strength appears improbable, creating a perilous vacuum that has plunged Gaza’s residents into profound uncertainty. Yet history and geopolitics are unforgiving to ungoverned spaces. The question remains: Who will step in to lead Gaza, and by what mandate?
With Iran under severe strain and Russian influence in the Middle East waning, the key players left in the region’s shifting dynamics appear to be Israel, the United States, and the Gulf states. The U.S. alignment with Israel is unmistakable, exemplified by President Trump’s policies favoring Israel, such as recognizing Jerusalem as its capital. A similar approach is anticipated concerning Gaza, raising fears of undermining any prospects for Palestinian statehood—a significant concern for Muslim-majority nations. The absence of effective governance in Gaza exacerbates the crisis, further punishing the population and risking the resurgence of Islamic extremism. To avoid a dangerous political vacuum, Arab states are pressing Israel and the U.S. to enable the UN relief agency UNRWA to take the lead in stabilizing and rebuilding the territory.
Discussions on Gaza’s future governance will begin 16 days after the ceasefire takes effect, as part of the second stage of negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has avoided addressing the issue since the war began, viewing any “day after” talks as a potential trigger for destabilizing political divisions within his already fragile coalition, which was strained by the ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the Israeli government plans to terminate all cooperation with UNRWA by January 30, accusing the agency of aiding terrorists. This move raises significant doubts about how the anticipated post-ceasefire surge in aid will be distributed in Gaza.
Concerns are rising that Israel will move forward with its plan to sever all cooperation with UNRWA, a decision backed by the Trump administration, especially as aid to Gaza is set to increase. In the U.S., allegations against UNRWA include claims that it has been infiltrated by Hamas sympathizers and has assumed an ideological role in advocating for Palestinian refugees. The Knesset has passed legislation aimed at ending UNRWA’s operations in Palestinian territories, following Israeli allegations that UNRWA staff in Gaza were involved in the October 7 Hamas attacks. The UN subsequently launched an investigation, resulting in the firing of nine UNRWA employees. Now, it seems unlikely that Trump, who also hates UNRWA will persuade Netanyahu to backtrack on this decision.
Arab states, supported by most European powers, argue that no organization other than UNRWA has the scope and capacity to oversee the urgent distribution of food and supplies in Gaza. They also do not believe the Palestinian Authority (PA), which currently governs the West Bank. The PA is often accused of high levels of corruption and lacking effective administrative bodies. Arab diplomats maintain that while Hamas may be willing to step aside if the PA is granted authority over Gaza, it would reassert itself if it perceives the move as resembling colonial rule. Furthermore, they acknowledge that the PA remains deeply unpopular in the West Bank.
The likelihood of a governance body being formed under the direction of the U.S. and Israel now seems the most probable outcome for Gaza. Israel, unwilling to relinquish valuable territory or risk another assault, is hesitant to jeopardize what it perceives as strategically vital. Netanyahu, evidently unwilling to risk his own political future, will not hand over Gaza to the Palestinian Authority. A systematic occupation, reinforced by the steady expansion of Jewish settlements under heavy security, would transform Gaza into a reflection of the West Bank, gradually erasing any vestige of a Palestinian state.
