As the U.S. Withdraws, Can China Take the Helm?

Donald Trump’s policies—cutting aid, imposing tough tariffs, downsizing alliances, and publicly humiliating leaders—have significantly damaged the United States’ global reputation. The humiliation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a shock to the Western world and marked a major setback in U.S. foreign relations. Many now believe that by the end of Trump’s second term, America’s international standing could erode even further.

While the U.S. economy and the dollar remain dominant, even its closest allies are questioning whether promoting a second global power is inevitable. But if not the United States, then who?

The traditional European powers—Britain, France, and others—once led the world but are now weakened. Even if the European Union consolidated its economic strength, reaching a GDP of $18 trillion, it would still trail the U.S. Moreover, Europe remains a fragmented bloc, deeply divided by political conflicts between the left and right, making a unified challenge to U.S. dominance unlikely. Militarily and technologically, Europe also lags far behind.

Russia, once the United States’ great rival under the Soviet Union, has proven itself a diminished force. Its war in Ukraine has exposed deep military and economic weaknesses, making it clear that Moscow is no longer a serious contender for global leadership.

That leaves China as the only nation truly positioned to rival the U.S. With a $19 trillion economy—just $10 trillion behind America’s—an increasingly sophisticated military under centralized command, and technological advancements that have even caught Washington off guard, China has both the ambition and the capacity to assert itself on the world stage. The question is: Can it seize the moment?

U.S. Step-Back

To safeguard its interests, the United States is increasingly withdrawing from international institutions. It has already pulled out of the World Health Organization, and under Trump, there is even the possibility of an exit from the United Nations or NATO—the very alliance that anchors Western Europe to the U.S. Cuts to security funding and demands for increased financial contributions from NATO allies have been viewed as humiliating by many member-state politicians.

Trump is also shifting away from traditional alliances with strategically located partners. In 2024, he suggested that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for its defense, despite the self-governing island already spending billions on American arms. This year alone, Taiwan is reportedly considering an additional $7–10 billion in military purchases to maintain favor with the Trump administration—a strategy that other nations may attempt but cannot all afford.

At the same time, cuts to U.S. foreign aid could weaken ties with many countries that rely heavily on American financial support. Numerous political parties and organizations worldwide operate with U.S. funding, and if those resources dry up, they may easily shift their allegiances to new backers.

Ambitious China 

China’s ambition for global dominance extends far beyond Communist Party meetings and nationalist action films. As the United States retreats from international commitments, it creates a power vacuum that China is eager to fill. Despite its authoritarian governance and poor human rights record, global institutions have done little to challenge Beijing. By funding these organizations, China can subtly influence international agendas in its favor.

The rise of trade wars and economic protectionism may further push nations to decouple from the U.S., creating opportunities for Chinese products to dominate global markets. Meanwhile, China’s extensive infrastructure investments have already forged deep ties with many countries. As the U.S. cuts foreign aid, China is well-positioned to step in, offering financial lifelines and strengthening its influence.

Many nations seek investment but fear U.S. retaliation. However, if Washington intensifies economic punishments, these countries may increasingly turn to China as an alternative partner. Additionally, the U.S.’s handling of Taiwan presents another potential opening for Beijing. Should Washington waver in its commitment to defend the island, China could swiftly assert control over Taiwan and expand its dominance across the South China Sea. Such a move would significantly advance China’s strategic influence, further positioning it as a central force in global politics.

Is China Capable?

Over the past decade, many news outlets predicted that China would overtake the United States, citing its rapid GDP growth, technological advancements, and large-scale infrastructure projects. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, strict lockdown measures, trade restrictions, and a real estate crisis—coupled with a declining population—slowed China’s momentum. While the West anticipated a complete economic collapse, China managed to withstand these challenges and is now showing signs of renewed growth, expanding its influence in Central Asia and other regions. China is asserting itself in global affairs.

However, China’s ascent to global leadership still hinges on its relationship with the West. While Trump’s policies have strained U.S.-China ties, many liberal democracies maintain economic partnerships with Beijing. A key uncertainty remains China’s military preparedness—unlike the U.S., its forces lack combat experience, casting doubt on their operational effectiveness. Nevertheless, Beijing continues to strengthen its position, steadily advancing toward its long-held ambition of global dominance.

What Happens Next?

Political experts strongly believe that despite disruptions and diplomatic humiliations, the West will remain firmly aligned with the United States. Without breaking Western unity or expanding its influence in the Middle East, China cannot achieve true global dominance.

Although Ursula von der Leyen envisions a stronger and more independent Europe, the continent remains deeply tied to Washington—willing to endure tariffs and occasional setbacks rather than sever ties. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern leaders, driven by economic interests, are likely to maintain their alignment with the U.S., as will India. This leaves Russia as China’s only major strategic ally.

Analysts suggest that Washington is now seeking an  opportunity to weaken the Russia-China partnership. If Moscow were to distance itself from Beijing, China could find itself increasingly isolated on the global stage.

However, if Russia remains firmly aligned with China and Europe drifts away from its close relationship with the U.S., the balance of power could shift significantly. If China also manages to strengthen ties with India, its global influence would be further solidified.

For years, Beijing has aspired to global leadership but has struggled to fully realize that ambition. Ironically, the evolving geopolitical landscape—largely shaped by U.S. actions—may become the very force that propels China to the forefront.