Duterte On Arrest: What’s Next for His dynasty?
The relentless drama of Philippine politics has taken another dramatic turn with the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte at Manila’s international airport, following a request from the International Criminal Court (ICC). A towering figure in one of the country’s two dominant political dynasties, Duterte’s detention is more than a legal reckoning—it is a moment of profound political consequence. With the general elections fast approaching in May, the Duterte family, now steered by its next generation, is fighting to preserve its influence in an increasingly hostile landscape.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s decision to comply with the ICC’s warrant, coming after his earlier move to remove Duterte’s daughter from the vice presidency, appears to be a calculated bid to erode the family’s power. In a time when ICC warrants are often dismissed or ignored, Marcos Jr.’s cooperation is widely seen as a strategic maneuver—one that not only neutralizes a formidable rival but could also signal the decline of a once-dominant political dynasty.
Duterte Indicted
As his 80th birthday nears, an international tribunal closes in on the former president. Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court (ICC) accuse him of crimes against humanity for orchestrating a ruthless anti-drug campaign that claimed up to 30,000 lives. Gunmen, acting under his war on drugs, executed most of the victims—men from the country’s poorest urban enclaves—in the streets, blurring the line between state policy and unrestrained violence..
Duterte’s rise to the presidency in 2016 was built on a promise of unrelenting violence. Before assuming national office, he had already cultivated a fearsome reputation as the mayor of Davao City, where he was accused of deploying criminal gangs to carry out extrajudicial executions. On the campaign trail, he vowed to rid the country of drugs with a crackdown so ruthless that, he boasted, Manila Bay’s fish would grow fat on the bodies of the slain. Once in power, he made good on his threats, publicly endorsing the killing of suspected drug dealers and even encouraging ordinary citizens to take up arms against addicts.
Since his election, estimates cited by the ICC suggest that between 12,000 and 30,000 civilians have been killed in anti-drug operations. His long-anticipated arrest came as he arrived at Manila’s international airport from Hong Kong, where the prosecutor general served him with an ICC warrant, formally charging him with crimes against humanity. He was swiftly taken into custody and has since boarded a flight bound for The Hague.
The Political Impact
Despite the international outcry over his administration’s bloody drug war, Duterte remained a deeply entrenched political force, particularly in his stronghold of Davao. Yet even his most devoted supporters, for all their outrage over his arrest, are unlikely to transform their defiance into a large-scale People Power-style uprising. For now, their resistance is largely confined to the digital sphere, far removed from the historic street protests that once altered the course of Philippine politics. Still, Duterte is not merely an individual; he is the patriarch of a powerful political dynasty, with his family wielding influence at both the local and national levels. How they navigate this crisis will determine whether the Duterte name retains its political clout or fades into irrelevance.
Many analysts see his arrest as the beginning of his dynasty’s decline. Unlike Duterte, whose strongman persona and incendiary rhetoric cultivated a nationwide following, his children have yet to command the same level of appeal. His downfall, they argue, is more than just a legal reckoning—it is a repudiation of the brand of politics he embodied, one that valued brute force over diplomacy. Meanwhile, Marcos Jr. has capitalized on this shift, recasting himself as a pragmatic and responsible leader—one who champions human rights and the rule of law. In doing so, he not only consolidates his own power but also leaves an already fragmented opposition struggling to find its footing.
For years, Duterte sought to insulate himself from prosecution by pulling the Philippines out of the Rome Statute in 2019, effectively shielding himself from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. But Marcos Jr. reversed course, rejoining the treaty and clearing the way for the ICC’s case against Duterte to move forward. His arrest marks the final and irrevocable fracture in the Marcos-Duterte alliance, a strategic partnership that secured their joint electoral victory in 2022. The alliance had propelled Duterte’s daughter, Sara, to the vice presidency while helping Marcos Jr. mobilize Duterte’s voter base. But the split had been brewing for some time. Marcos methodically distanced himself, rejoined the ICC, and systematically sidelined Sara—moves that now seem less like routine political repositioning and more like the calculated dismantling of a former ally.
Time for another Duerte?
Rodrigo Duterte’s children—Sara, Paolo, and Sebastian—occupy key positions of power, ensuring the family’s continued political relevance. Sara Duterte currently serves as the 15th Vice President of the Philippines, having been elected alongside Bongbong Marcos in 2022, when he secured the presidency in a decisive landslide. Before assuming the vice presidency, Sara was the mayor of Davao City, a position she first held in 2010 after succeeding her father, who had completed his third term. She returned to the post in 2016 when Rodrigo Duterte launched his presidential bid, having previously served as his vice mayor in 2007.
Paolo Duterte, the eldest son, has represented Davao City’s 1st District in Congress since 2019 and previously served as Deputy Speaker for Political Affairs. His political trajectory includes stints as vice mayor to his father in 2013 and later to his sister in 2018. Meanwhile, Sebastian Duterte, who ran unopposed in 2019, succeeded Paolo as vice mayor and later replaced Sara as Davao City mayor following the May 2022 elections. The Duterte family’s hold over Davao’s mayoralty has been nearly unbroken since 1988, with the only exception occurring between 1998 and 2001, when Rodrigo Duterte was briefly succeeded by Benjamin de Guzman before reclaiming the post.
As the Duterte dynasty faces a political reckoning, the question of who will emerge as its next standard-bearer looms large. Sara Duterte, despite her position as Marcos Jr.’s vice president, has openly positioned herself as his rival. Her confrontational stance, including incendiary rhetoric that at times suggests her allies are prepared to remove Marcos from power, has resonated with a significant segment of Filipinos while also exposing her to political risk. Now facing an impeachment process that threatens to derail her career, she could either see her ambitions cut short or find herself elevated as the leader of an opposition movement, paving the way for another Duterte resurgence.
Many believe the Duterte family will use Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest to craft a narrative of persecution, portraying him as a martyr punished for his leadership. This framing could rally public sympathy, reinforcing the dynasty’s influence even in adversity. In response, the family may attempt to introduce a new figurehead, ensuring the continuity of the Duterte brand in Philippine politics. Whether Filipinos embrace or reject this strategy remains to be seen, but the dynasty’s capacity to shape the country’s political landscape is far from diminished.
