Assessing the Israel-Iran War Fear: Perspectives and Predictions

The focal point of the Middle East conflict currently lies between two nations: Israel and Iran. Egypt is no longer an Arab superpower, and Turkey and Saudi Arabia show no interest in engaging in conflict with Israel. Other countries in the region lack the capability to challenge Israel. The only remaining powerhouse opposing Israel is Iran. Interestingly, Iran also lacks good terms with the United States. As animosity between Israel and Iran escalates, along with their leaders’ cries and calls for revenge, the world fears that war will break out. These countries have been embroiled in tensions for years, targeting each other’s officials. Iran funds and supports terrorist organizations, including Hamas, posing a threat to Israel. In response, Israel targets Iran’s top leaders, heightening tensions. The attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria further escalated tensions between the two countries. Subsequently, Iran launched around 300 drones and missiles at Israel, prompting Israel to retaliate with missile strikes targeting Isfahan, an important city for Iran. The breaking news alerts that followed stirred global apprehension, with people worldwide fearing that the region had taken a step closer to full-blown conflict.

In Reality, no one will benefit from a catastrophic war at present. These countries possess a significant amount of artillery, and Israel possesses nuclear weapons, while Iran is accused of having nuclear bombs and high-impact weaponry. The war would be disastrous for the entire region. After World War II, there haven’t been collisions between major powers; instead, there have been instances of larger countries invading smaller ones, as observed in attacks like those on Ukraine or Gaza. Israel’s attack on Gaza is driven by a desire for revenge and is highly politically motivated, and they don’t need a full-scale war. If they were to attack Iran, there would be consequences, potentially involving the intervention of Iran’s closest allies, such as Russia and China. However, Israel is under intense pressure from its closest allies to restrain any response. Leaders from Washington, Paris, and London have openly expressed deep concern over the rapid escalation of a decades-long shadow war into a precarious exchange of direct strikes. For months, US diplomats have been engaged in intensive efforts to prevent Israel’s conflict in Gaza from expanding into a wider conflict, shuttling between regional capitals.

Though Iran and Israel initiated a drone shower against each other, it occurred on a small scale, merely considered as threats. The direct confrontation began with Israel’s attack on the embassy of Iran, resulting in the deaths of top diplomats. In retaliation, Iran struck Israel using drones. The US received information from Iran before they attacked Israel, which significantly reduced fatalities. Although the scale of the Iran attack was surprising, analysts noted that Iran exhibited some restraint by warning the US. If it deployed its weapons differently, it could cause more harm. As the conflict continues, Israel conducted an attack with missiles in the Iranian city of Isfahan. Isfahan is a historic cultural center and a military hub, hosting several important facilities, including a major airbase and factories linked to drone production and a uranium enrichment plant.

Tehran had issued a warning that any Israeli counterattack would provoke a stronger retaliation, with President Ebrahim Raisi stating on Wednesday that even the slightest strike would elicit a “Massive and harsh” response. Within hours, the US confirmed the attack as an Israeli strike and reiterated its longstanding call for restraint. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken said that they are committed to Israel’s security and they are also committed to de-escalation”. By Friday night, officials in Iran and Israel had merely stated that multiple drones had been shot down; neither country had admitted who had authorized the strike. However, Iran and Israel appear to have cooled down now. Some speculate that the uneasy pact of silence offered the only slim hope that the latest round of dangerous attacks might have temporarily ceased.

Actually, these attacks between these countries are demanded by their administrations, which face protests from their people. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, they can present that they are only voicing support for Islam and Palestine. This is important because the country faces backlash from the population about stringent Islamic rules. So it is necessary for them to present a stance against Israel, although they know they are not capable of a full-scale war against Israel. If the war continues, it’s not certain that Russia and China will not cooperate with them, because Russia does not want to fight with Israel and China gives importance to its economy; they would face pressure from the China Sea if they entered into war. Therefore, the political stalemate once again spared the world. It appears that the likelihood of a full-scale war is nonexistent.