Author: Caracal

  • Faith, Land, and Votes: The Waqf Act and the Tightrope Walk of India’s Opposition

    Faith, Land, and Votes: The Waqf Act and the Tightrope Walk of India’s Opposition

    Religion has long been one of the most sensitive and polarizing forces in India. This is hardly surprising in a country that is not only the birthplace of several major religions but also home to a population that has, for centuries, defended its faiths with fervor. Religion is deeply woven into the nation’s social and political life, continuing to shape both public discourse and electoral outcomes. Unsurprisingly, any legislation that touches on religious matters tends to ignite fierce debate.

    A recent example is the Waqf (Amendment) Act, 2025, which has now been enacted into law. The Act introduces a host of new complexities in the functioning of the Waqf Board, the institution responsible for managing properties endowed for religious and charitable use within the Muslim community. Historically, particularly during the era of Muslim rule, large swathes of land—including those with pre-Islamic temples and long-established non-Muslim settlements—were brought under Waqf ownership. The current Hindu nationalist government, asserting a reformist agenda, has framed the new law as a measure to enhance transparency, secure property rights, and promote gender equality.

    Given the government’s commanding parliamentary majority, the passage of the amendment was all but assured. The more precarious political challenge, however, has landed on the shoulders of the opposition. Parties like the Indian National Congress—long proponents of secular modernism in contrast to the religious nationalism espoused by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP—now find themselves compelled to oppose the amendment in order to retain the support of their Muslim base. Yet doing so places them in direct conflict with their own stated ideals of progressivism and modernity.

    This is not the first time such a dilemma has emerged. Much like the controversy surrounding the triple talaq legislation, the Waqf amendment forces secular parties into an impossible balancing act: resisting the law may alienate liberal and secular-minded constituents, while endorsing it could be seen as abandoning a key electoral bloc. The BJP, meanwhile, has seized the opportunity to cast its rivals as beholden to Islamist interests—a narrative that not only undermines the opposition’s credibility but also complicates their path back to political relevance.

    What’s the Waqf Act?

    Waqf, an Islamic tradition, entails the permanent dedication of property for religious or charitable purposes. Though its roots in India trace back to the period of Muslim rule, the institution of Waqf expanded significantly under British colonial administration and continued to grow well after independence. Today, the Waqf Board manages an estimated 870,000 properties across 940,000 acres, with a cumulative value exceeding ₹1 lakh crore (approximately $12 billion). This makes it the third-largest landowner in the country, after the Indian Railways and the Armed Forces. Much of this expansion—particularly in the post-independence era—has been shaped by political patronage and legal ambiguities, prompting persistent calls for reform. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made addressing these issues a recurring theme in its electoral platforms.

    Mounting public pressure culminated in the passage of the Waqf (Amendment) Bill in 2024, which became law the following year. The legislation introduced sweeping changes to the governance of Waqf properties. Under traditional Islamic jurisprudence, such endowments can be established in three ways: by formal declaration, by long-standing public use (waqf by user), and through familial endowments (waqf-alal-aulad). The amended Act abolished the waqf by user provision and now permits only individuals who have practiced Islam for at least five years and who hold legal ownership of the property to declare it as Waqf. It also safeguards inheritance rights—particularly for women—by ensuring that familial endowments cannot override lawful claims by heirs.

    The amendment also redistributed key administrative responsibilities. The task of surveying Waqf properties was transferred from the Survey Commissioner to district-level authorities such as District Collectors. It mandated the inclusion of Muslim women and members of non-Muslim communities on both the Central Waqf Council and State Waqf Boards. Additionally, the Act called for the establishment of separate Auqaf Boards for the Bohra and Agakhani communities, thereby expanding representation beyond the traditional Sunni-Shia divide and amplifying the voices of historically marginalized Muslim sects.

    To improve transparency, the Act mandated the creation of a centralized online registry for Waqf properties and streamlined procedures for property mutation to align with existing revenue laws. It introduced a requirement for prior notice to all stakeholders before any property is designated as Waqf. The amendment also overhauled the tribunal system: Waqf Tribunal decisions are now subject to appeal in High Courts within a 90-day window. Outdated provisions, including Section 107, were repealed, bringing Waqf disputes under the purview of the Limitation Act of 1963.

    Experts have largely welcomed the Waqf (Amendment) Act of 2025 as a timely and necessary reform. It advances gender equity by mandating female representation in governance, protects inheritance rights, and fosters greater sectarian inclusion. It also grants the Central Government expanded authority over registration, auditing, and financial oversight, aiming to bring more accountability to a system long criticized for opacity.

    The politics of Act

    Indian politics today is largely shaped by the assertive direction of the Narendra Modi government, while the opposition remains disoriented, struggling to define its own priorities. The Waqf Amendment Bill has become emblematic of this divide. For the BJP, the bill represents a legal instrument to address longstanding land disputes involving the Waqf Board—an effort framed as reclaiming public and historical land holdings for broader civic use.

    In contrast, opposition parties, heavily reliant on Muslim electoral support, have consistently resisted legislation related to Muslim affairs—often regardless of its merit or potential benefit. Their opposition to the triple talaq ban, despite the practice being abolished in many Muslim-majority countries, was widely criticized as political appeasement. Such positions have increasingly alienated secular and liberal voters, many of whom now find themselves more aligned with the BJP’s reformist narrative.

    The government has also capitalized on public dissatisfaction with the Waqf Board, particularly its claims over properties predating Islam, including ancient temples and heritage structures. In many cases, even local Muslim residents are unaware that the land they occupy is registered as Waqf—based on historical claims dating back to the medieval period. These issues have stirred broader debates over the legitimacy of religious land endowments rooted in conquest and the relevance of vast religious land holdings in a secular republic decades after partition.

    By opposing the Waqf Amendment Bill and labeling it anti-Muslim, the opposition has inadvertently strengthened the BJP’s political positioning. Instead of recalibrating their stance, opposition leaders and Muslim political parties have turned to the Supreme Court—further reinforcing the BJP’s portrayal of them as obstructionist and disconnected from contemporary reformist sentiment.

    What happens next?

    The Waqf Act 2025 has triggered widespread protests among Muslim communities across India, highlighting the deep religious importance of the issue. In several areas, these protests turned violent, with some taking on openly anti-Hindu tones. In West Bengal—especially in regions with large numbers of Bangladeshi migrants—the unrest escalated into full-blown riots, resulting in deaths, injuries, looting, and widespread chaos.

    These incidents have deepened existing communal tensions. At the same time, the violence in West Bengal has helped rally Hindu nationalist sentiment across the state. BJP supporters quickly closed ranks, using the unrest to argue that the opposition’s policy of communal appeasement has gone too far. This growing polarization is working in the ruling party’s favor, strengthening its political position ahead of the next round of elections.

  • Singapore Faces Economic Toll from US Tariff Warfare

    Singapore Faces Economic Toll from US Tariff Warfare

    A video featuring Singapore’s Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, has gained widespread attention across the globe, despite the country’s relatively low profile in global politics. The video quickly went viral, particularly among critics of former President Donald Trump and those opposed to trade wars, as Mr. Wong addressed the flaws and consequences of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In the five-minute clip, Mr. Wong speaks calmly yet firmly, warning that America’s withdrawal from the global trading system it once helped shape poses serious risks—not only for Singapore but for the global economy. The video was shared widely, even by people who were unfamiliar with Mr. Wong or Singapore, recognizing the significance of his message.

    While some opposition voices in Singapore initially dismissed the video as an election tactic aimed at stoking fear, it later became clear that the issue is indeed pressing. Singapore is expected to feel the effects in two ways: directly, through tariffs on its exports, and indirectly, through disruptions in global trade. As a major transit and shipping hub, Singapore is vulnerable to these economic shocks

    The direct punishment

    Singapore was unexpectedly included in U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping universal tariffs, which imposed a 10 percent duty on its exports. The decision stunned both the Singaporean government and its business sector. According to the rationale provided by the Trump administration, the tariffs were intended to be reciprocal, targeting countries with bilateral trade surpluses against the United States. By that logic, Singapore should not have been affected—its tariff should be zero. Under the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, Singapore imposes no tariffs on American imports and actually runs a trade deficit with the U.S., meaning it imports more from the U.S. than it exports. The inclusion of Singapore on the tariff list has therefore been widely seen as irrational and punitive, without any clear explanation

    Prime Minister Lawrence Wong cautioned that the newly imposed tariffs would have a serious impact on Singapore’s economy, affecting both businesses and citizens. While it remains uncertain whether the country will enter a recession this year, he stressed that economic growth will almost certainly be significantly weakened. He pointed to an impending global slowdown, which is expected to reduce external demand for Singapore’s goods and services. Outward-facing sectors such as manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transport are likely to be hit hardest. These disruptions, he warned, could eventually reach ordinary Singaporeans through rising prices and job losses.

    Speaking in Parliament on April 8, Wong, who also serves as Finance Minister, warned that slower growth would translate into fewer job opportunities and more modest wage increases. He further cautioned that if more companies struggle or choose to relocate their operations back to the U.S., Singapore could face a surge in retrenchments and rising unemployment.

    The Ministry of Trade and Industry, which had earlier projected GDP growth of 1 to 3 percent for 2025, is now reassessing its forecast and is likely to revise it downward in light of the new economic challenges.

    The Indirect Punishment

    The U.S. has extended its tariff measures to major manufacturing hubs across Asia—centers on which many Singaporean businesses depend. As these Asian production bases are increasingly targeted, companies in Singapore, which are deeply embedded in global supply chains, will inevitably come under pressure.

    East Asia and Southeast Asia are bearing the brunt of these tariff hikes, with China hit hardest. The average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods now exceeds 145 percent. Southeast Asian nations are also grappling with steep tariffs ranging from 10 to 49 percent, with Vietnam facing a 46 percent rate.

    Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned that these measures will hasten the fragmentation of the global economy. Instead of trade and capital flowing based on economic efficiency, they will increasingly be redirected according to political alliances and strategic interests.

    PM Wong characterized these so-called “reciprocal” tariffs as a clear rejection of World Trade Organization rules. He further cautioned that the likelihood of a full-scale global trade war is growing.

    The deteriorating relationship between the United States and China remains a pressing concern for Singapore. PM Wong stressed that any further escalation between the two powers could destabilize the global economy. He warned that the world is entering a more volatile era—one marked by frequent and unpredictable shocks.

    What happens next? 

    Prime Minister Lawrence Wong laid out a proactive strategy to navigate ongoing economic uncertainty, announcing the formation of a new task force led by Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong. This task force will identify economic opportunities amid global turmoil and will comprise not only government agencies but also key organizations representing businesses, employers, and workers. Its mandate includes assessing emerging challenges, supporting affected companies and employees, evaluating the impact of tariffs, and maintaining transparent communication.

    Wong also emphasized the importance of strengthening Singapore’s ties with like-minded nations to uphold a rules-based international order. He has already held talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, with further diplomatic outreach planned. Singapore also aims to deepen cooperation with ASEAN partners to expand intra-regional trade and reinforce economic integration.

    Experts acknowledge that even if the U.S. eventually withdraws the tariffs and diplomatic ties improve, the indirect effects of the trade war are likely to linger—signaling tough days ahead for Singapore and global trade

  • Finally, the Date Is Out for GE2025: Singaporeans Will Go to the Polls on May 3

    Finally, the Date Is Out for GE2025: Singaporeans Will Go to the Polls on May 3

    Rumors of an early election have swirled for months, but now it is official: Singapore’s General Election will take place six months ahead of schedule. On May 3, Singaporeans will head to the polls, marking a pivotal moment for Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who will lead his first election as both Prime Minister and secretary-general of the long-ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

    The announcement came on April 15, shortly after President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, acting on the Prime Minister’s counsel, dissolved Singapore’s 14th Parliament and issued the Writ of Election, setting the stage for a swift political season.

    Nomination Day will be April 23, giving candidates just nine days of campaigning before Cooling-off Day on May 2, a brief but intense window for any last-minute maneuvering.

    An Unusual Pressure on the PAP?

    The outcome of the upcoming election seems all but decided: the People’s Action Party (PAP), the dominant force in Singapore’s political landscape, is widely expected to secure another victory. Even the opposition is not naive enough to entertain any illusions of victory. For decades, Singapore’s elections have faced criticism for their structural favoring of the ruling PAP, which has been in power since the nation’s founding. However, this election feels interesting. Beneath the surface of what might seem like a familiar narrative, several key factors are making it an intriguing contest to watch.

    This election marks a pivotal moment for PAP’s new leadership under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the first leader outside the Lee family to assume the role. The votes cast will be crucial for Wong’s political future, as any decline in public support could prompt tough questions about his leadership and his reforms. As a result, this election serves as a critical test of Wong’s direction and his vision for Singapore. It’s clear that Wong and his team are working diligently to secure a decisive win.

    While the PAP continues to emphasize its central role in the nation’s prosperity, it also underscores the added significance of this election in ensuring Singapore’s long-term stability and success. In a social media post following the writ’s issuance, Prime Minister Wong noted that this election provides Singaporeans with the opportunity to choose leadership capable of guiding the country through an increasingly uncertain global landscape. He also acknowledged that the global conditions that have supported Singapore’s success in recent decades may no longer be reliable. With this in mind, he is sending a clear message to the public: it’s time to choose him and his party to navigate Singapore through these turbulent times.

    PAP to contest all the seats, opposition to focus on strongholds.

    Singapore’s 14th general election since independence will see the People’s Action Party (PAP) contest all 97 seats across 33 constituencies, including 18 group representation constituencies (GRCs) and 15 single-member constituencies. The ruling party is expected to face a challenge in every seat, fielding over 30 new candidates—the largest slate in recent years. The PAP is confronted by a growing opposition that has gained ground in recent elections, fueled by calls for greater political checks and a wider range of voices in Parliament. In 2020, despite securing 61.23% of the vote, the PAP lost some key seats to the Workers’ Party (WP), which allowed the WP to secure the position of Leader of the Opposition for Pritam Singh.

    The WP is targeting at least 30 seats, including Hougang, Aljunied, and Sengkang GRCs, while also contesting five additional constituencies, including the new Punggol GRC. The party’s election slogan, “Working for Singapore,” underscores its commitment to unity and its goal of achieving a “First World Parliament.”

    The Progress Singapore Party (PSP) plans to field candidates in at least five constituencies. Following the confirmation of the election timeline, party leader Leong Mun Wai announced that its candidate list will be revealed soon. The PSP’s A-team is expected to contest the newly reconfigured West Coast-Jurong West GRC, where, led by Tan Cheng Bock, the party nearly defeated the PAP in 2020, securing 48.32% of the vote.

    Meanwhile, smaller opposition parties have staked claims to contested constituencies, creating the potential for multi-cornered races unless they can reach a consensus soon, making the path smoother for the PAP.

    A lot of topics to discuss

    In recent years, key issues such as the cost of living, job security, and the affordability of public housing have dominated national conversations, and it will lead to campaigns too. Inflation reached a peak of 6.1 percent in 2022 but eased to 4.8 percent the following year, dropping further to 2.4 percent in 2024. But impacts are still there and concerns remain about whether external factors, like renewed U.S. tariffs, could lead to another round of global price hikes.

    Resident employment saw an increase in 2024, reversing the previous year’s decline. Yet, new university graduates faced more challenges in securing full-time employment, and retrenchments rose in the final quarter. In response to these job insecurities, significant investments have been made in the SkillsFuture movement to help workers adapt to evolving industry demands. Additionally, a new initiative has been launched to support individuals who have lost their jobs and are working to re-enter the workforce.

    After a pandemic-driven supply crunch, resale Housing Board flat prices soared, with more units crossing the million-dollar mark. However, efforts to increase supply and stabilize the market have led to early signs of moderation in both public and private housing prices in the first quarter of 2025.

    Political scandals affecting both major parties are also likely to have an impact on the election. These include two extramarital affairs, the arrest of former Cabinet Minister S. Iswaran following a Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau probe, and a trial involving Mr. Singh, who was charged with lying to a parliamentary committee. Iswaran pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 12 months in jail. Mr. Singh was found guilty after a 13-day trial and fined, though he is appealing his sentence, which does not affect his eligibility to run for election.

    It’s heating up!

    The election mood is palpable following the release of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee’s report. Political parties have begun introducing their potential candidates to the public, and the atmosphere is expected to heat up—alongside the tropical summer—in the days ahead.

    The PAP has started rolling out its candidates constituency by constituency and will continue in the coming days. The WP and PSP are expected to follow soon. Still, Nomination Day could bring last-minute surprises as parties finalize their slates.

    This year will also mark the return of physical rallies—banned during the 2020 election due to the COVID-19 pandemic—with full-fledged campaigning set to begin after nominations close on April 23.

    The arena is ready.

  • In the Shadow of Tariffs, Xi Makes His Rounds—But ASEAN Still Pins Its Hopes on the US

    In the Shadow of Tariffs, Xi Makes His Rounds—But ASEAN Still Pins Its Hopes on the US

    Southeast Asia, a region home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies and crucial manufacturing hubs, has long been heavily reliant on the U.S. market. But in the last few weeks, the sweeping tariffs introduced by the Trump administration have created significant challenges for countries in the region, leaving businesses in trouble and governments facing growing economic instability.

    Amid this backdrop, President Xi Jinping arrived in Vietnam on Monday, marking the beginning of a diplomatic tour through Southeast Asia that will also take him to Malaysia and Cambodia. Chinese officials have marked the visit as being of major importance, reflecting Beijing’s desire to cement its influence in the region.

    Although China may not have the capacity to fully replace the U.S. in business, it is positioning itself as a more stable and reliable economic partner. Xi’s visit aims to reinforce this perception, portraying China as a dependable force aligned with the region’s development priorities. While ASEAN nations (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) deepen ties with Beijing, they continue to seek business relations with the U.S. and are open to compromise by fostering more dialogue and addressing trade imbalances, making the diplomatic talks in the region particularly interesting to watch.

    China: A Stable Partner

    Vietnam, a manufacturing hub, and Cambodia, where the garment and footwear industries are vital to the economy, were hit hard by U.S. tariffs—set at 46% and 49%, respectively—chosen by Xi for his visit. Washington’s approach has raised concerns in these countries. During Xi Jinping’s visit, China is expected to position itself as a stable and reliable partner, deliberately contrasting itself with the U.S., which has imposed—and then suspended—punitive tariffs. On Monday, China is likely to sign numerous agreements with Vietnam, including potential investments and cooperation on developing the country’s railway infrastructure, emphasizing a partnership built on worth and trust.

    Throughout Xi’s tour, China will likely present itself as the responsible guardian of a rules-based trade system, portraying the United States as an unpredictable force undermining established trade ties. While the meetings may not result in significant, tangible agreements, their symbolic weight is expected to be substantial

    Troubles with China

    Many experts argue that Southeast Asia’s businesses need to diversify and expand their trade relations with major economies like China, Europe, and India, as a way to mitigate the effects of U.S. trade policies from the Trump era. While these economies may not fully replace the U.S. market, the shift is vital for businesses that are heavily reliant on exports and have small, vulnerable domestic markets. Gaining access to larger economies provides a necessary lifeline for sustaining growth.

    However, turning toward China and other major economies presents its own set of challenges. Southeast Asian nations find themselves not only competing with China for market access and production opportunities but also grappling with complex geopolitical tensions. The South China Sea, in particular, remains a flashpoint, with several ASEAN countries embroiled in territorial disputes with China. For nations like Vietnam, which have been outspoken in their opposition to China’s actions in the region, balancing the pursuit of economic ties with the need to safeguard national interests adds a layer of diplomatic complexity.

    While confusion persists about U.S. trade policies, there are growing concerns in Southeast Asia that the 145% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods could lead to a flood of inexpensive Chinese exports into neighboring countries, jeopardizing local industries. According to Chinese customs data, ASEAN countries were the largest recipients of Chinese exports last year. Vietnam, which competes with and often mirrors China in various industries, could struggle if Chinese products flood the market. With U.S. exports accounting for 30% of Vietnam’s GDP, Hanoi needs them and is keen to avoid antagonizing Washington by aligning with China, particularly as it seeks relief from a new 46% tariff. As a result, the likelihood of Vietnam aligning closely with China following Xi Jinping’s visit has diminished.

    In a bid to mend relations and eliminate tariffs, Vietnam sent Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc to Washington, offered to remove tariffs on U.S. imports, and pledged to purchase more American goods, including in defense. Simultaneously, Vietnam is tightening export controls, cracking down on Chinese goods funneled through its territory, and limiting sensitive exports to China, particularly dual-use items like semiconductors. Vietnam remains hopeful that the U.S. will respond positively.

    What happens next?

    For most ASEAN nations, preserving strong economic ties with the United States remains a central priority, prompting many to actively pursue relief from mounting tariff pressures. In this context, Xi Jinping’s regional tour marks a calculated bid by Beijing to blunt Washington’s expanding influence—particularly through arms deals and trade negotiations aimed at easing tariff penalties tied to trade imbalances.

    Xi is expected to extend offers of strategic partnerships, backed by infrastructure investments and deeper political engagement, presenting China as a stable and dependable counterweight to the U.S. In return, Beijing seeks to safeguard its access to Southeast Asian markets and cultivate diplomatic goodwill that could translate into increased backing in international forums. At its core, China’s strategy is to prevent ASEAN states from becoming strategic adversaries—and ideally, to draw them more firmly into its geopolitical orbit.

  • A Return to the Table: The US and Iran Test the Waters of Diplomacy

    A Return to the Table: The US and Iran Test the Waters of Diplomacy

    When Donald Trump started his second term, it seemed like tensions with Iran were bound to escalate. His strong ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia—two of Iran’s biggest rivals—suggested a hardline approach was inevitable. But just a few months in, things have taken an unexpected turn.

    Trump now appears focused on striking a deal with Tehran. In a surprising development, the United States and Iran have wrapped up their first round of nuclear talks in Oman. These discussions are the first substantial talks between the two nations since 2018, when Trump pulled the U.S. out of the original nuclear deal, promising to secure a better one. After years of stalled diplomacy, these renewed talks signal real progress toward a potential agreement—one that could not only change the Middle East but also reshape global geopolitics.

    Optimism Grows After Positive Talks

    The United States and Iran have both described their recent nuclear talks as constructive. The two-and-a-half-hour meeting was brief but respectful, laying the groundwork for further negotiations.

    Iran’s chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, spoke favorably about the discussions, noting they occurred in a calm and respectful setting without the use of inflammatory language. This tone suggests the U.S. delegation, led by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, avoided repeating earlier threats of military action.

    Although the meeting was considered a success, it unfolded in an unusual format, with both delegations stationed in separate rooms and communicating through Oman’s Foreign Minister, Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi. While it stopped short of a full face-to-face dialogue, Araghchi and Witkoff briefly spoke in Busaidi’s presence—a modest but symbolically significant gesture. Aware of political sensitivities at home, Iran downplayed the interaction and withheld any photographs.

    Following the talks, the White House described the discussions as highly positive. Witkoff emphasized that he had been directed to pursue diplomacy and dialogue to resolve long-standing differences. The administration acknowledged the complexity of the issues but considered Witkoff’s direct communication a meaningful step toward a mutually beneficial outcome. Araghchi had earlier stated that Iran was committed to securing a fair agreement, while the U.S. reaffirmed the value of direct engagement as essential to reaching a possible deal.

    Second Round Set for Next Week

    A second round of nuclear talks is set for Saturday, marking progress toward a possible agreement. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted the next round may not be held in Oman, he confirmed that Oman would continue to mediate.

    Both sides seem increasingly willing to engage, with the upcoming talks expected to build on momentum from President Trump’s recent letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader. Sent via the United Arab Emirates, the letter expressed Trump’s desire to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to avoid potential U.S. or Israeli military action.

    Trump disclosed the ongoing negotiations during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the White House on Monday. Netanyahu later stated that both leaders agreed Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons. He also proposed a “Libya-style” disarmament model—complete dismantlement of weapons programs—which Iran has firmly rejected.

    Iran is instead seeking a deal that limits, but does not eliminate, its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Iranian officials continue to assert the peaceful nature of their program and insist that negotiations will focus solely on nuclear issues, excluding the country’s ballistic missile and broader defense capabilities.

    What happens next? 

    Uncertainty still surrounds whether the talks will lead to a favorable agreement, as both sides remain firmly committed to their core demands. Experts widely agree that both Iran and the United States need a deal, but any major compromise could trigger political backlash at home.

    As it continues to pose a significant security concern for two of America’s closest allies in the region—Israel and Saudi Arabia—making it unlikely that the U.S. would support any deal that fails to address their concerns.

    At the same time, analysts believe Iran has limited options. The country faces deep economic troubles, and its leaders are under growing pressure from a dissatisfied population. In recent years, Iran’s influence in the region has declined, especially in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and parts of Yemen. These losses have weakened Iran’s regional standing and challenged its image as a leader of the Islamic world—posing real risks to the future of the Islamic Republic.

    For Iran, a nuclear deal could provide a crucial lifeline—offering relief from sanctions and easing domestic unrest. For the United States, it presents a chance to keep Iran’s nuclear ambitions in check. As a result, talks are expected to continue.

  • In Trump’s Expanding Trade War, China Is in No Hurry to Flinch

    In Trump’s Expanding Trade War, China Is in No Hurry to Flinch

    The trade war between the United States and China has cast aside any remaining illusion of measured diplomacy. What began as a calculated exchange of economic pressure has devolved into a bare-knuckled standoff—a battle of wills between two superpowers, neither prepared to retreat, both pushing toward a brink that threatens to destabilize the very architecture of global trade.

    Just hours after President Trump unveiled a sweeping 145 percent tariff increase on Chinese imports, Beijing retaliated with its own salvo: 125 percent tariffs on American goods, coupled with warnings that further reprisals were on the horizon. Chinese state media wasted no time in framing Trump’s tactics as doomed, dismissing the escalation as both futile and provocative—a declaration that China would not yield to economic pressure, no matter how intense.

    While Trump temporarily eased tariffs on several countries—capping them at 10 percent for a 90-day period—China was pointedly excluded. The message was unmistakable: this was no longer a dispute over trade imbalances or intellectual property, but a deeper ideological clash, rooted in national pride and rival visions of global dominance.

    What is unfolding now transcends economic policy; it is a confrontation of political identities. As the world’s manufacturing powerhouse and its most voracious consumer lock into a cycle of retaliatory measures, the ripple effects have pulled the global economy into the turbulence. Supply chains fracture, markets quiver, and the already fragile post–Cold War trade order teeters on collapse.

    In this high-stakes deadlock, compromise feels increasingly remote. Instead, we witness the slow constriction of a geopolitical vise—one that promises to reshape the foundations of the global economic order for generations to come.

    China doesn’t compromise

    President Trump continues to portray himself as a reluctant warrior in an escalating economic conflict, claiming that countries are “crying” for trade talks. Yet from Beijing’s perspective, the narrative looks far different—marked by rising defiance, not desperation. While Trump appears increasingly frustrated, China seems prepared for a drawn-out fight.

    On Thursday, China’s foreign ministry issued a pointed response. Spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized that although China does not seek confrontation, it will not back down if provoked. He made clear that Beijing would not be intimidated by U.S. threats, and predicted that Washington’s strategy would ultimately backfire.

    The Chinese commerce ministry adopted a more restrained tone, expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue. Still, it stressed the importance of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and cooperation built on shared benefit. At the same time, an editorial in the state-run China Daily removed any ambiguity—China would not yield to American pressure.

    For the first time since tensions reignited, President Xi Jinping addressed the dispute publicly. During a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Xi stressed that trade wars benefit no one and that rejecting international norms would only lead to isolation. Still, he expressed confidence in China’s ability to withstand the pressure, stating that no matter the external challenges, the country would remain focused, steady, and committed to strengthening its domestic resilience.

    Global trade is bound to suffer

    WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned on Wednesday that the intensifying U.S.-China tariff war could reduce trade between the two countries by up to 80 percent. As their bilateral exchange represents around 3 percent of global trade, such a sharp decline could have serious consequences for the broader world economy.

    Chinese companies selling on Amazon are already preparing for sharp price increases in the U.S. market—or even a full withdrawal—due to the unprecedented effects of the tariffs, according to the head of China’s trade association. The fallout could reverberate globally, as any contraction in Chinese exports to the U.S. is likely to disrupt supply chains and reshape market dynamics around the world.

    Although China has reduced its dependency on the U.S. market over the years, the relationship remains economically significant. In 2024 alone, China exported nearly $440 billion worth of goods to the United States. Conversely, China is also a major destination for American exports, particularly agricultural commodities like soybeans and pork, as well as high-tech products.

    Whether a full economic decoupling between the two powers occurs will depend on how long the tit-for-tat tariff exchanges persist and whether the escalation remains confined to bilateral measures. In the meantime, some goods may be rerouted through third-party countries before reaching their intended markets in either China or the U.S., further complicating trade flows.

    Beijing, however, holds one key advantage: the U.S. is more reliant on Chinese imports than China is on U.S. exports. American imports from China are dominated by consumer products such as smartphones, computers, and toys. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities predict that Trump’s tariffs—then standing at 54 percent—could raise the price of the cheapest iPhone in the U.S. from $799 to $1,142. Economist Diana Choyleva notes that Trump may struggle to shift blame to China for such cost increases.

    On the flip side, China’s imports from the U.S. are primarily industrial and manufacturing inputs, including fossil fuels, soybeans, and jet engines. These are less likely to affect Chinese consumers directly, as price increases in such sectors tend to be absorbed further upstream. However, any imbalance in global supply and demand for these commodities may still ripple across international markets, affecting everyday life in other countries.

    What happens next? 

    As neither side appears willing to act with restraint, both the U.S. and China seem to be seeking alliances elsewhere. While the U.S. may attract countries aligned with its economic interests, China is actively working to expand its trade relationships beyond the American sphere of influence—particularly with nations also affected by Trump’s tariffs.

    In talks with his Malaysian counterpart, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao stressed Beijing’s commitment to strengthening cooperation within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). He also met with the European Union’s trade and security commissioner on Tuesday, reaffirming China’s intent to deepen trade, investment, and industrial ties. Notably, China and the EU agreed to immediately resume talks on electric vehicle cooperation.

    What began as a bilateral trade dispute is now evolving into a sprawling global standoff, entangling international trade and politics in increasingly complex ways.

  • Singapore’s Housing Dilemma, and the Parties’ Proposals to Solve It

    Singapore’s Housing Dilemma, and the Parties’ Proposals to Solve It

    As Singapore’s population continues to grow, the twin challenges of land scarcity and housing accessibility remain as pressing as ever. Since independence, the People’s Action Party (PAP) has positioned public housing as a foundational solution, rolling out a series of expansive schemes to meet the nation’s evolving needs. While the system is often praised as one of the most comprehensive and effective in the world, alternative perspectives—particularly those offered by opposition parties—are frequently sidelined in policy debates and long-term planning.

    By the early 2020s, public housing in Singapore had become predominantly centered in well-planned new towns—self-contained urban communities where residential blocks are integrated with essential amenities like schools, parks, and shopping areas. Yet, as economic pressures rise and social dynamics shift, housing has once again taken center stage in political discourse.

    As the general election approaches, public housing has evolved from a policy issue to a crucial benchmark of governance, providing voters with insight into how each party envisions the future of life in one of the world’s most densely populated nations.

    A Core Commitment of the State

    The People’s Action Party (PAP) has reaffirmed that housing remains a cornerstone of its governance strategy, emphasizing supply expansion and affordability in response to growing public concern. In March 2025, Parliament was informed that the Housing and Development Board (HDB) is set to exceed its five-year target of building 100,000 new flats—roughly the equivalent of two Ang Mo Kio towns. This milestone follows the January completion of all 92 pandemic-delayed Build-To-Order (BTO) projects, which collectively delivered 75,800 units over the past five years.

    A key government priority has been to reduce BTO waiting times to pre-pandemic levels of under four years—a goal achieved in 2024. This was accomplished through the accelerated rollout of shorter-waiting-time flats, with an additional 12,000 such units planned between 2025 and 2027.

    To keep public housing accessible to a wide range of income groups, the Government has bolstered financial support. In 2024, the Enhanced Housing Grant was increased to a maximum of $120,000 for families and $60,000 for singles. That same year, a new classification framework was introduced to maintain accessibility in prime areas such as Redhill and Tanjong Rhu. These flats now come with deeper subsidies, longer minimum occupation periods, and resale clawbacks designed to curb speculative gains.

    Delivering the 2025 Budget, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong reported that application rates for BTO flats had not only stabilized but dipped below pre-COVID-19 levels. With demand easing, the Government will increase the BTO quota for second-timer families by five percentage points starting in July 2025. From mid-year, singles will also be eligible to apply for two-room flexi flats in all locations and receive priority under the Family Care Scheme when choosing to live with or near their parents.

    WP Want reboot housing Policies

    The main opposition party, the Workers’ Party (WP), has been pushing for a fundamental rethinking of Singapore’s housing strategy. In 2023, Sengkang GRC MP Louis Chua contended that recent government initiatives—such as boosting housing supply and introducing a new flat classification framework—fell short of addressing the structural issues plaguing the public housing system. He urged the Government to adopt a more forward-looking approach by building homes ahead of projected demand and investing more substantially in rental housing, which he described as an overlooked and underdeveloped segment.

    The WP’s call for reform dates back to 2021, when it proposed an expanded public rental scheme to offer Singaporeans a meaningful choice between renting and owning. Chua argued that rental housing should not be confined to the lower-income demographic, but instead serve a broader range of residents. He also challenged the deeply held assumption that homeownership is inherently superior, citing high-income countries such as Switzerland and Germany, where robust rental markets coexist with strong economic and social outcomes.

    The party has also consistently championed lowering the eligibility age for singles to apply for Build-To-Order (BTO) flats—from the current threshold of 35 to 28 years old. This proposal was first introduced in the WP’s 2020 General Election manifesto and has since remained a key plank of its housing platform. In a 2022 parliamentary speech, Chua criticized the existing policy for implicitly suggesting that single Singaporeans are less entitled to state-supported housing. He maintained that granting earlier access would not discourage marriage or family formation but would instead reflect evolving social norms and life choices.

    PSP need Policy Reset

    The Progress Singapore Party (PSP) has also advocated for a reset in public housing policy, introducing two key proposals designed to create a more equitable allocation of HDB flats and broaden housing options for younger Singaporeans.

    The first initiative, dubbed the Affordable Home Scheme, would allow buyers to purchase flats at construction cost, plus a location-based premium. Crucially, payment for land costs—along with accumulated interest—would be deferred until the flat is sold on the resale market. In February, Non-Constituency MP Hazel Poa argued that this approach offered a fairer alternative to the current model, under which the Housing and Development Board (HDB) pays market land rates into the national reserves. She contended that the existing system imposes a heavy burden on citizens, who ultimately bear the cost through higher taxes and long-term mortgages that increasingly stretch over three decades.

    The second proposal, known as the Millennial Apartments Scheme, envisions a government-managed stock of rental flats in centrally located areas near the Central Business District. These smaller units would be offered to young Singaporeans on short-term leases of two to five years. During the 2024 Budget debate, PSP chief Leong Mun Wai explained that the scheme would offer temporary housing for those awaiting their BTO flats, while also relieving pressure on young couples to rush into the home-buying process. It would, he added, fill a critical gap in the housing market by providing much-needed flexibility for singles and young families navigating a competitive and constrained landscape.

    The PAP is rejecting opposition proposals.

    In response to these proposals, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told Parliament in 2023 that Build-To-Order (BTO) flats remain largely affordable, with most homeowners using Central Provident Fund (CPF) contributions to cover their mortgages, often without any out-of-pocket expenses. While he acknowledged the Workers’ Party’s call for lower flat prices might seem appealing, he warned that it would lead to significant trade-offs, such as a surge in demand and increased competition. He also raised concerns about potential windfall gains, especially for higher-income buyers who could profit from reselling subsidized flats.

    In response to the Progress Singapore Party’s (PSP) Affordable Home Scheme, Minister Indranee Rajah cautioned that it could undermine Singapore’s national reserves, benefiting only a small group of buyers. Under current policy, land is sold at fair market value, and the proceeds are directed into national reserves, managed by sovereign wealth funds. The returns from these investments support the national Budget, with half allocated to current spending and the rest saved for future generations.

    The PAP seems intent on rejecting opposition proposals, focusing on policies it believes are in Singapore’s best interest. While the opposition’s suggestions may lack traction, the upcoming election could see shifts in voter sentiment, particularly regarding housing policies. With this in mind, further announcements are expected in the near future as the PAP doesn’t want to lose votes. 

  • Is Sri Lanka quietly drifting back into India’s orbit?

    Is Sri Lanka quietly drifting back into India’s orbit?

    Long wary of being seen as a satellite of India, Sri Lanka has spent decades navigating its foreign alignments—at times courting the West, and more recently, leaning heavily toward China. That pivot, especially during the Rajapaksa era, brought a surge of Chinese investment but also coincided with one of the most severe economic crises in the island’s post-independence history. Now, under the weight of that collapse, Sri Lanka appears to be rebalancing. The island nation is quietly edging back toward New Delhi—not through grand gestures, but via a deliberate flow of strategic agreements and behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

    For Colombo, this shift marks a pragmatic recalibration. What was once seen as a one-sided relationship with India is increasingly viewed as a possible path out of economic despair. For New Delhi, the moment offers both a strategic opening and a pressing imperative. By providing critical aid, essential supplies, and infrastructure investment, India is not only helping to stabilize its southern neighbor but also reinforcing its presence in a region where Beijing’s influence has grown markedly.

    Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka

    Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister who has skillfully crafted diplomatic relationships across the region, recently made a significant visit to Colombo. The trip—his first to Sri Lanka since President Anura Kumara Dissanayake took office in September last year—served as a symbol of the changing dynamics in South Asian geopolitics.

    During the visit, India and Sri Lanka signed seven key agreements spanning defense, energy, digital infrastructure, health, and trade. The move signaled a recalibration in regional alliances, as both nations work to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean.

    Initially, concerns in New Delhi centered around Dissanayake’s leftist background and potential leanings toward Beijing. However, those apprehensions have since softened. Instead of drifting closer to China, Colombo appears to be re-engaging with New Delhi in a more pragmatic and strategic manner.

    Dissanayake reassured Modi that Sri Lanka would not permit its territory to be used in any way that might threaten India’s security. Modi, in turn, welcomed the gesture, emphasizing the deeply interconnected nature of security interests between the two nations.

    India Backs Sri Lanka’s Core Needs

    Amid an economic collapse and mounting debt to China, India provided vital supplies and assistance when Sri Lankans needed them most. While China invested heavily in large-scale infrastructure projects—many of which offered limited benefits to ordinary citizens—India’s approach focused on immediate relief and practical support. This made a lasting impact on the public and nudged the Sri Lankan government toward rebuilding trust and strengthening ties with New Delhi.

    That relationship is now evolving. Expanding beyond emergency aid, India is investing across multiple sectors. As a symbol of this growing partnership, the two leaders recently inaugurated—virtually—the construction of a 120-megawatt solar power plant, a joint venture funded by India and aimed at advancing Sri Lanka’s energy future.

    Sri Lanka needs to balance

    While Sri Lanka is working to repair its relationship with India, cutting ties with China is far from simple. China remains Sri Lanka’s largest bilateral creditor, accounting for over half of the island’s $14 billion in bilateral debt at the time of its sovereign default in 2022. The economic collapse, however, forced Colombo to rethink its heavy dependence on China—a reliance that had contributed to the crisis—and created space for India to step in with substantial financial and material assistance.

    Nonetheless, China’s role in restructuring Sri Lanka’s infrastructure loans remains vital. President Dissanayake’s first official overseas visit to New Delhi in December signaled a renewed diplomatic warmth, but his subsequent trip to Beijing in January underscored the balancing act Colombo must maintain. That same month, Sri Lanka signed a $3.7 billion investment deal with a Chinese state-owned company to build an oil refinery in the country’s south, reaffirming Beijing’s enduring economic footprint.

    It’s evident that Sri Lanka still looks to China for large-scale funding—support that India, thus far, has been cautious to extend. As such, it would be premature to declare a pro-India tilt in Colombo’s foreign policy. Instead, Sri Lanka appears to be navigating a delicate path, seeking to balance both powers in pursuit of its own national interests.

    What happens next?

    It’s clear that Trump’s trade policies have shaken the global order. China is no longer the China the world once knew; it is now seeking broader relationships rather than maintaining a confrontational posture. This shift will inevitably influence dynamics in South Asia as well. The region, with its massive population, represents a significant market that China cannot afford to ignore. Yet among South Asian nations, India stands out with the strongest purchasing power—making a stable relationship with New Delhi increasingly important for Beijing.

    India, for its part, remains deeply concerned about China’s growing influence in Sri Lanka, which it considers part of its traditional sphere of interest. As China recalibrates its global strategy, it may seek to ease regional tensions with India, potentially stepping back from past hostilities. In this evolving landscape, the groundwork is being laid for improved relations between India and Sri Lanka—an alignment that could help India reclaim its influence in the region. At the same time, it offers Sri Lanka a valuable escape from the strategic and economic trap it has been struggling to navigate.

  • RDU’s Game Plan: Wallets and Voices

    RDU’s Game Plan: Wallets and Voices

    Red Dot United (RDU), one of Singapore’s youngest political parties, was formed just before the last general election as a breakaway from the Progress Singapore Party (PSP). Since then, the party has struggled to carve out a clear identity in Singapore’s crowded centre-left opposition landscape. While it brands itself as a fresh and alternative voice, some critics argue that RDU has only further fragmented the opposition.

    In its first electoral outing, the party did not secure any seats but garnered over 30,000 votes—a modest showing, yet one that signaled potential. Now, as the 2025 general election approaches, RDU is setting its sights higher. It no longer wants to simply be part of the conversation; it wants a seat in Parliament.

    With that goal in mind, the party is focusing its campaign on issues that resonate with everyday Singaporeans, particularly the rising cost of living. At a press conference on April 3, party secretary-general Ravi Philemon announced that RDU will centre its campaign on such bread-and-butter concerns, while also advocating for fairer parliamentary representation.

    Six Constituencies

    After the release of new electoral boundaries for the 2025 General Election, Red Dot United (RDU) announced its plan to contest six constituencies. This decision follows discussions with other opposition groups and efforts to streamline campaign costs. One of the key battlegrounds is Jurong East–Bukit Batok GRC, a five-member constituency in the western region. On 15 March 2025, RDU held a porridge distribution event there, during which it introduced Pang Heng Chuan as a potential candidate.

    The party also confirmed its intention to contest Nee Soon GRC, another five-member constituency in the north. While secretary-general Ravi Philemon did not confirm whether he would lead the team, he highlighted his strong familiarity with the area. He also introduced Dr Syed Alwi Ahmad, a 57-year-old private school teacher who serves as RDU’s head of policy and Malay bureau, as part of the Nee Soon slate.

    In addition, RDU will field candidates in Tanjong Pagar GRC, a five-member constituency that spans central and western Singapore. The party also plans to contest three single-member constituencies: Jurong Central in the west, Jalan Kayu in the north-east, and Radin Mas in the central region.

    For the Common People

    This election, Red Dot United (RDU) is putting forward a platform focused on practical solutions to ease the financial pressures faced by everyday Singaporeans. During a walkabout at Yishun Park Hawker Centre, RDU secretary-general Ravi Philemon told reporters that the party would concentrate on issues that have a direct impact on people’s daily lives.

    He pointed out that many families are struggling to cope with the rising cost of food and increasing tuition fees. Addressing these concerns, he said, would be at the heart of RDU’s campaign. As part of its proposals, RDU is calling for the Goods and Services Tax (GST) to be reduced back to 7 percent—arguing that this would provide immediate financial relief to households. The party is also pushing for the removal of Singapore’s carbon tax, which it believes is adding to the cost burden for ordinary citizens.

    Can RDU make it?

    While Red Dot United (RDU) is focusing on issues that directly affect the daily lives of Singaporeans, the party recognizes that this alone may not be enough to secure a seat in Parliament. Most of the constituencies it plans to contest are currently held by the People’s Action Party (PAP), which continues to enjoy significant institutional and political advantages. In response, RDU secretary-general Ravi Philemon is not only campaigning on policy issues but also questioning the commitment and ethics of his opponents.

    Philemon expressed concern over whether current Members of Parliament in Nee Soon are effectively addressing the needs of their constituents. He cited public feedback on Mr Derrick Goh’s recent promotion to Group Chief Operating Officer at DBS Bank and questioned whether such a demanding corporate role might affect Goh’s availability and effectiveness as MP for Nee Soon Link and chairman of the Nee Soon Town Council.

    Philemon also voiced concerns about Minister of State Muhammad Faishal Ibrahim and former Nominated Member of Parliament (NMP) Syed Harun Alhabsyi. He pointed to growing speculation that Prof Faishal could be redeployed to the newly created Marine Parade–Braddell Heights GRC, following his appearance at a walkabout in Eunos on March 30. Meanwhile, Dr Syed Harun’s presence at a community event in Nee Soon on March 27—alongside several new PAP figures—has fueled rumors that he may be fielded in the constituency.

    Philemon questioned the reasoning behind moving Prof Faishal—currently the MP for Nee Soon Central—while introducing a former NMP like Dr Syed Harun into the same area. He raised ethical concerns, pointing out that NMPs are appointed precisely for their non-partisan stance. If Dr Syed Harun plans to run under the PAP banner, Philemon argued, there should be clarity on when he made the shift from a neutral position to one aligned with the ruling party.

    Dr Syed Harun and fellow NMP Raj Joshua Thomas both resigned from their posts on February 14, nearly a year before their terms were set to end. At a briefing on March 31, Law and Home Affairs Minister K. Shanmugam confirmed that the Constitution allows NMPs to step down in order to join political parties and contest elections.

    While Philemon acknowledged that such moves are legally and constitutionally allowed, he emphasized that legality does not always align with ethical standards. 

    It seems that Philemon and RDU have found the right campaign formula. The party is launching its bid with a focus on the rising cost of living and a call for fairer representation in Parliament—while also holding incumbents accountable. RDU believes this strategy could pave its way into Parliament

  • The Impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol: A Chapter Closes, But the Story Goes On

    The Impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol: A Chapter Closes, But the Story Goes On

    The president who declared martial law and attempted to shutter parliament has finally been decisively ousted. The political drama that has gripped South Korea since December is now approaching its climactic turn. In the peak moment of this saga, for 22 breathless minutes, millions across the nation listened as Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae of the Constitutional Court delivered the verdict in the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol—an outcome shaped by the president’s chaotic and authoritarian bid to consolidate power. The wait was excruciating, the atmosphere almost theatrical.

    The court’s ruling on Friday may have offered a fleeting sense of institutional redemption. Yet domestically, the country remains deeply fractured. The verdict that ousted the president is far from the final act. The saga will continue—perhaps as another season in a long-running national reckoning. The decision has now triggered a 60-day countdown to elect a new president, with the date to be announced within ten days by Acting President Han Duck-soo.

    A landmark verdict

    The Constitutional Court’s decision marks a pivotal juncture in South Korea’s democratic history. With each damning sentence, Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae gave voice to a public long demanding the permanent removal of the suspended president. Crowds gathered outside the court hung on every word, their anticipation mounting as Moon methodically laid out the case against Yoon Suk Yeol.

    Moon declared that Yoon’s actions posed a direct threat to democracy. He asserted that the 64-year-old conservative populist had gravely betrayed the public’s trust, plunging the nation into its most destabilizing political crisis since its democratic transition in the late 1980s. When the Chief Justice finally pronounced that President Yoon was officially removed from office, the crowd outside erupted in cheers.

    According to Moon, Yoon’s declaration of martial law had sown widespread chaos, damaging both the economy and foreign relations. He emphasized that Yoon not only imposed martial law without legitimate cause but also violated the constitution by using military and police forces to obstruct the legislature. This, Moon concluded, constituted a flagrant abuse of emergency powers and a collapse of constitutional order.

    The Chief Justice stressed that the severity of Yoon’s violations—both in terms of constitutional principles and their broader political consequences—made his removal necessary. The decision, though deeply disruptive, was framed as essential to preserving democratic integrity.

    Yoon, who did not appear in court for the ruling, has no right to appeal. He now faces a separate criminal trial on charges of insurrection—a dramatic final chapter to a presidency undone by its own authoritarian excesses.

    The election is coming.

    South Korea’s turbulent political climate now shifts toward a high-stakes presidential election, set in motion by the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Acting President Han Duck-soo is expected to announce the election date in the coming days. Although the legal process has advanced, the political atmosphere remains deeply fraught, with the public starkly divided.

    Political parties are racing to field competitive candidates, with the Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-myung currently leading in the polls. In contrast, Yoon’s conservative People Power Party faces a formidable task: finding a nominee who is either free from association with the disgraced administration or capable of channeling the strongman persona that once galvanized Yoon’s base.

    During his presidency, Yoon often leaned on Cold War-era rhetoric, branding opponents as pro–North Korean or anti-state—language that analysts believe only deepened national polarization. As the party charts its path forward, any potential candidate will need to navigate this fractured landscape by studying Yoon’s core supporters and tailoring a message that resonates with them.

    Unsettled division

    The ongoing clashes between South Korea’s rival political factions present a profound challenge to the country’s democratic foundations. While friction between a president and a parliament controlled by opposing parties is not unusual, the current level of animosity has taken a deeply unsettling turn. The National Assembly has become a battleground, a reflection of the broader dysfunction consuming the nation’s political discourse.

    When the Assembly held its initial impeachment vote in December, it offered the People Power Party a chance to distance itself from President Yoon Suk Yeol. Instead, its lawmakers boycotted the vote and reaffirmed their loyalty to the embattled leader. In doing so, they lent credence to Yoon’s widely discredited claims that recent elections—including a parliamentary vote earlier in the year—had been tainted by fraud.

    Such rhetoric found a receptive audience among Yoon’s supporters, who echoed Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” slogans as they poured into the streets. Conspiracy theories, once confined to the margins, quickly moved to the heart of political protest.

    Whoever takes office in the upcoming presidential election will inherit the unenviable task of bridging a deeply polarized society and restoring trust in democratic institutions—institutions that many believe Yoon systematically undermined.

    Conservatives in Trouble

    The Constitutional Court’s ruling brings a dramatic close to the turbulent three-year presidency of Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative populist whose rise and downfall are now framed by impeachment. After narrowly defeating liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung in the 2022 election, Yoon was initially seen as a bold, no-nonsense leader poised to cut through political deadlock and restore order to a weary electorate. But what once seemed like strength soon hardened into inflexibility. His presidency became defined by relentless confrontation—battling an opposition-led National Assembly, targeting critical journalists, clashing with striking medical workers, and obstructing probes into corruption allegations involving his wife, Kim Keon Hee. His rhetoric grew increasingly incendiary, casting political opponents as criminals and accusing them of colluding with North Korea, echoing the paranoia of South Korea’s Cold War past.

    In the wake of the ruling, the People Power Party issued a restrained statement, calling the verdict regrettable while affirming its respect for the Constitutional Court’s decision. The party also extended a formal apology to the public. Meanwhile, Yoon’s legal team denounced the decision as unconstitutional and demanded his immediate reinstatement. But public sentiment had already turned decisively against him. A Gallup Korea poll released just days before the verdict found that 60 percent of South Koreans supported his permanent removal from office.

    With the political winds shifting sharply against the conservatives, Yoon’s party now faces an uphill battle as it braces for the upcoming presidential election.

    The saga continues

    The political saga is far from over. Few believe that either the candidates or the electorate in the upcoming presidential election will be able to move beyond the bitterness of the past four months. Yoon’s future also looms as a troubling uncertainty in South Korean politics. He now faces a separate criminal trial on charges of insurrection—a grave offense that carries the possibility of life imprisonment or even the death penalty, although no executions have been carried out in South Korea since the late 1990s. Despite his removal from office, Yoon continues to command a fiercely loyal base, and how his supporters respond in the coming weeks will be closely watched. As the country approaches the polls, the political landscape remains deeply fractured. A liberal victory appears increasingly likely, while the conservative camp is gripped by internal doubts and public distrust. And The climate of hostility shows little sign of dissipating.