Author: Caracal

  • Are We Really Approaching a Ceasefire in Gaza?

    Are We Really Approaching a Ceasefire in Gaza?

    A ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict is now a demand from the United States as Americans head to the polls to choose their next president in November. Neither Hamas nor Israel seems particularly interested in this. Israel does not feel the need to stop the war at this point because they have successfully framed Hamas as their biggest threat following the October 7th attack. Meanwhile, in Gaza, a Hamas-controlled territory, a severe humanitarian crisis is unfolding, with over 40,000 deaths reported by local health authorities and critical issues such as famine and a lack of drinking water. This situation only strengthens Hamas’s image as a martyr organization within the Muslim world, which aligns with the group’s objectives. For outsiders who do not view this as a holy war, a ceasefire is their primary demand. The UN’s influence seems limited, and the U.S. is seen as the only power that can make a difference. Secretary Blinken’s visit raised some hope, but the situation still appears to be in limbo, with talks expected to continue.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the urgency of securing a ceasefire in Gaza as he concluded his Middle East tour, with an agreement between Israel and Hamas still out of reach. He stated that the deal needs to be completed soon, ideally within the next few days. Blinken urged Hamas to accept a bridging proposal that Israel has already agreed to and encouraged both parties to work toward finalizing it. Blinken, along with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, is focusing on this bridging proposal to narrow the gaps between the two sides in the 10-month-old conflict. Despite last week’s negotiations pausing without a breakthrough, the U.S. expects ceasefire talks to continue this week.

    However, analysts believe that achieving a ceasefire will not be easy. Hamas is not directly participating in the negotiations and has expressed concerns that the latest proposal on the table leans too much toward Israel’s demands. On Tuesday, the militant group responded to comments by U.S. President Joe Biden, who suggested that they were backing away from an agreement with Israel, calling these remarks misleading. The proposed plan calls for a six-week ceasefire, during which a limited number of female, seniors, and sick Israeli hostages would be freed in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. The ceasefire could be extended indefinitely while negotiators work on a second stage, which would include the return of soldiers and bodies, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and the return of displaced Palestinian civilians to their homes in the northern part of the strip.

    A key obstacle to reaching an agreement has been Hamas’s long standing demand for the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from all areas of Gaza, which Israel rejected without any doubts. When asked in Qatar about the terms of Israeli troop withdrawals within the ceasefire framework, and about a report in the U.S. publication Axios that quoted Netanyahu as saying he might have convinced Blinken that Israel should keep troops in the Philadelphi corridor, a strategic strip on the Gaza-Egypt border, Blinken responded. He stated that the United States does not support any long-term occupation of Gaza by Israel. He also clarified that the agreement is very clear on the schedule and locations of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawals from Gaza, and that Israel has agreed to those terms.

    Concerns about regional escalation have persisted since Hezbollah and Iran vowed retaliation after an attack last month, blamed on Israel, which resulted in the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. However, the likelihood of widespread conflict now seems to be diminishing, as the countries that threatened war are now worried that it could further weaken them and lead to internal unrest and civil protests.

    Many believe that U.S. politics are influencing the ceasefire efforts both positively and negatively. There are conspiracy theories on X suggesting that Donald Trump might be delaying the truce with his friend Netanyahu to avoid benefiting Kamala Harris in the election, though no evidence has been reported. However, it is clear that there is now a push for a ceasefire from the U.S. government, as it could provide a significant boost to Democrats in the presidential election. Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza remains a severe humanitarian crisis. A ceasefire would be a notable humanitarian achievement for these politicians.

  • Vietnam and China Deepen Party and Government Relations

    Vietnam and China Deepen Party and Government Relations

    China and Vietnam, often considered communist brothers, are unlikely to part ways as many political analysts believe. Instead, they are fostering closer relations between their communist parties and governments. With the passing of Nguyen Phu Trong, one of Vietnam’s influential leaders since Ho Chi Minh, it appears that Vietnam is drawing closer to the Chinese Communist Party and its government.

    Vietnam’s new General Secretary of the Communist Party and President, Tô Lâm, conducted a state visit to China from August 18-20. This marked his first foreign visit since being appointed to the powerful position following the passing of Phu Trong, signaling his prioritization of China. The official welcome, attended by Tô Lâm, his spouse, and a high-level Vietnamese delegation, was held with full honors at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Monday. The ceremony was presided over by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and President of China, along with his spouse.

    The event featured a notable presence of senior leaders from both the Chinese government and the Communist Party. Attendees included Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, Secretary of the Secretariat, and Director of the General Office of the CPC; Wang Yi, Politburo member, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, and Minister of Foreign Affairs; Wang Xiaohong, State Councilor and Minister of Public Security; Liu Jianchao, Head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee; Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission; Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology; and Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, among others. The presence of these high-ranking officials underscores the significance of the visit and Several agreements are anticipated from the visit, which could benefit Vietnam, particularly as China seeks greater cooperation with Vietnam amid its ongoing tensions with the United States.

    Both sides expressed satisfaction with the historic advancement of their relationship, which has reached an unprecedented level of intensity, comprehensiveness, and substance. Notable achievements include strengthened political trust, elevated bilateral ties, regular exchanges and contacts at all levels, robust trade collaboration, significant growth in Chinese investments in Vietnam, a strong recovery in tourism, and enhanced local and people-to-people cooperation.

    President Lâm welcomed China’s participation in three standard-gauge railway projects linking the two countries, including the Vientiane–Vũng Áng railway and the metro system in Hanoi. He encouraged China to continue expanding its market for high-quality Vietnamese farm products and to support the establishment of Vietnam’s Consulate General in Chongqing and trade promotion offices in China. Additionally, he proposed that China accelerate large-scale, high-quality investments in Vietnam, implement smart border gates, consider local currency payment cooperation, and enhance collaboration in science and technology, innovation, green transition, digital transformation, and high-tech agriculture. Vietnam hopes China will favorably consider these proposals, particularly in light of its general hesitation towards foreign investments from the West.

    Agreeing with Lâm, Li emphasized the need for both countries to maintain their cooperative structure and focus on win-win development. Li also highlighted efforts to improve rail connections between Vietnam and Europe via China, expedite the feasibility study for the Lào Cai–Hà Nội–Hải Phòng railway, plan the Đồng Đăng–Hà Nội and Móng Cái–Hạ Long–Hải Phòng railways, and facilitate the entry of high-quality Vietnamese agro-fishery products into China.

    Recognizing the significant potential for cooperation between their countries, the two leaders agreed to work together to enhance political and economic confidence and build a Việt Nam-China community with a shared future of strategic importance. They aim to advance bilateral relations to a new level based on the six major orientations, maintain regular communication at all levels, and promote exchanges and cooperation through Party, Government, National Assembly/National People’s Congress, and Fatherland Front/People’s Political Consultative Conference channels.

    While former Party Secretary of Vietnam Nguyễn Phú Trọng engaged with many Western countries, including the United States, and attracted investments from nations such as Germany, many expected Vietnam to align with the U.S. and Japan, which are positioning themselves against China in the region. However, recent diplomatic actions by the Communist Party of Vietnam indicate that, despite disagreements over South China Sea territories, Vietnam remains closely aligned with the Chinese Communist Party. This collaboration could negatively influence the United States by enhancing China’s regional position. As China extends its influence in the South China Sea, it may secure a strategic advantage.

  • China and the Philippines Collide Again

    China and the Philippines Collide Again

    China and the Philippines, long at odds over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, found themselves in conflict once again. On Monday, Chinese and Philippine vessels collided during a confrontation near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, according to statements from both countries. As expected, each side blamed the other for the incident near the Sabina Shoal, which is very close to the Philippines but claimed by all parties with stakes in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines reported that two of its coast guard vessels were damaged by China’s unlawful maneuvers, while Beijing claimed it took control measures after the vessels allegedly entered waters around the shoal illegally. China’s claim to nearly the entire South China Sea, a crucial trade route, continues to fuel tensions, with the dispute further complicated by the region’s strategic importance.

    China and the Philippines Collide Again

    Although both parties are avoiding casualties and showing restraint to prevent a broader conflict, China and the Philippines have repeatedly clashed in the vital waterway in recent months. These confrontations include disputes over a warship that was grounded years ago by Manila on the contested Second Thomas Shoal, where a garrison is stationed – a strategic move by the Philippines. Despite an international tribunal ruling that China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea have no legal basis, Beijing continues to assert its dominance in the region. The Philippines, however, maintains its claim to the rusted, grounded ship, a move that China strongly opposes and views as a provocative action.\

    Both sides avoided taking responsibility for the recent collision. China Coast Guard spokesperson Geng Yu accused a Philippine vessel of deliberately colliding with a Chinese ship early on Monday. He stated that the Philippine coast guard vessels had illegally entered waters near the Xianbin Reef in the Nansha Islands without Chinese government permission, using the Chinese names for the Sabina Shoal and the Spratly Islands. China claims the Sabina Shoal, located 140 km (86 miles) west of the Philippine island of Palawan, and over 1,000 km from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan Island. Geng added that the China Coast Guard took control measures against the Philippine vessels in accordance with the law. He also accused the Philippine vessels of acting in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, leading to a glancing collision. Geng sternly warned the Philippine side to immediately cease its infringements and provocations.

    Meanwhile, Manila’s National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea reported that two of its coast guard ships sustained damage in collisions with Chinese vessels conducting unlawful and aggressive maneuvers near the Sabina Shoal. The confrontation resulted in structural damage to both Philippine Coast Guard vessels, according to Manila.
    In recent months, both Manila and Beijing have stationed coast guard vessels around the shoal, with the Philippines concerned that China might build an artificial island there, while China fears the Philippines will deposit additional ships to strengthen its claim. Footage purportedly showing the incident, attributed to the Chinese coast guard and shared by state broadcaster CCTV, depicts a Philippine vessel appearing to collide with the left side of a Chinese ship before moving away. Another 15-second clip seems to show the Chinese vessel making contact with the rear of the Philippine ship. Captions with the footage claimed that the Philippine ship made a sudden change of direction, causing the collision. Additionally, a second Philippine coast guard ship, the BRP Bagacay, was reportedly rammed twice by a Chinese coast guard vessel about 15 minutes later, resulting in minor structural damage, according to Malaya.

    The repeated clashes in the South China Sea have raised concerns that Manila’s ally, the United States, could be drawn into the conflict as Beijing escalates its efforts to assert its claims in the region. The Filipino crew involved in the recent incident were unharmed and continued their mission to resupply Philippine-garrisoned islands in the Spratly group, which reduces the likelihood of direct U.S. involvement. However, analysts warn that Beijing’s strategy appears to involve advancing from the Second Thomas Shoal toward the Sabina Shoal, encroaching on Manila’s exclusive economic zone and normalizing Chinese control of the area. This situation is increasingly alarming for the Philippines, and the potential for serious escalation remains high and could eventually involve the United States.

  • Does Georgia Help Russia Bypass Sanctions?

    Does Georgia Help Russia Bypass Sanctions?

    It is dubious that, while people in Georgia aspire to European integration, politicians are not taking significant action toward this goal. Instead, they are drafting laws like the foreign agents bill, which make the country increasingly authoritarian and similar to Russia in terms of governance and media control. This situation is largely attributed to the significant business ties between Georgian politicians, businesspeople, and their Russian counterparts. Although Georgia was expected to align with Ukraine, given its own loss of substantial territory to Russia in the 2008 war, it is now accused of circumventing Western sanctions imposed due to Russia’s war with Ukraine – an accusation that could jeopardize Georgia’s European aspirations.

    The investigative outlet iFact recently published an article revealing troubling patterns. Journalists posing as parties interested in shipping dual-use goods to Russia found that sending items like drones and computer processors faced few obstacles. The report acknowledged existing inspection protocols designed to prevent illicit goods from crossing the Georgia-Russia border but pointed out that the effectiveness and thoroughness of these checks can vary. Moreover, couriers could potentially bypass Georgian restrictions by routing goods through Azerbaijan, Armenia, or Central Asian countries before reaching Russia. This pattern suggests that such circumvention is unlikely to occur without some level of cooperation from Georgian authorities.

    Georgian government officials have yet to directly address the report published earlier this month. Instead, their focus has shifted to other allegations linking them to Russia. Recently, the ruling Georgia Dream party has been preoccupied with damage control following an August 9 OCCRP investigation into the property holdings of Honorary Chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili’s family in Russia. Georgia’s Revenue Service has rejected the report, claiming that this is not the first instance of investigative journalists making baseless accusations about uncontrollable entry of sanctioned goods into Georgia and their subsequent export to Russia. Georgian Dream Party leaders have previously denied allegations that Georgia facilitates the shipping of sanctioned goods to Russia, citing a lack of conclusive evidence. Former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili asserted in June 2023 that the government is absolutely transparent and declared with full responsibility that no evidence has been presented showing that Georgia has helped anyone evade sanctions. However, this claim remains hard to believe.

    Georgia has not joined Western nations in sanctioning Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, citing concerns that such measures would severely impact its economy. Businesses often exploit loopholes to circumvent sanctions, a tactic historically common through rerouting trade via allied or neighboring countries. Georgia has been accused of such practices, along with other countries close to Russia like Kyrgyzstan, despite its recent protests against Russia and aspirations for EU membership. 

    Georgian leaders insist that the country is not being used to bypass Western sanctions. However, dual-use goods, such as certain mechanical and electronic components, are among Georgian exports to Russia, despite limited production capacity in Georgia. iFact’s report suggests that the presence of these goods indicates exploitation of legal loopholes and logistical routes to support Russia’s war effort. While some argue that sanctions circumvention is minimal, as shown by trade data, and that stricter restrictions could harm Georgia’s economy, others believe that Georgian authorities, closely linked with Russia, are deceiving both Western nations and their own citizens for business interests.

  • What Hamas Has Done to the Palestinians

    What Hamas Has Done to the Palestinians

    Gaza, the tiny piece of land on the Mediterranean coast densely populated with around 20 million people, is suffering greatly from the wrath of Israel. In the name of the promised state of Palestine or in an effort to maintain Muslim solidarity worldwide, the people – mainly Sunni Muslims – are enduring immense hardships. The death toll has risen to nearly 40,000 according to Hamas health authorities, while Israel reports around 1,000 deaths, including women and children. Injuries are expected to surpass 100,000. However, a truce remains elusive as neither Israel nor Hamas, the rulers of Gaza, are willing to settle. As Hamas, an organization that aims to uphold Islamic values and wage holy war against Israel, refuses to move toward peace by releasing hostages, civilians in Gaza are being harshly punished. Hamas is, in fact, punishing the Gazan people for choosing them, all in the name of God.

    Israel is now relentlessly destroying Gaza to punish Hamas, along with those who support them, and to dismantle all infrastructure intended for attacks on Israel. After the brutal October 7th attack on Israel, the country is no longer willing to gamble with its people’s lives. Consequently, Israel’s assault on Gaza is leading to what may be one of the worst war crimes in modern history. Hamas, committed to the removal of Israel and the Islamization of the region, initiated the brutal attack after a long pause during the Jewish holiday, showing no mercy to civilians.

    Now, they blame Israel, refuse to release hostages, and perpetuate suffering for their perceived heavenly reward. Israel, particularly under Netanyahu’s leadership, is using the situation very strategically. The attack by Hamas is now being used by Israel on a global scale to undermine the Palestinian cause, which is a dream for Muslims worldwide. It appears that Hamas has destroyed those dreams.

    The Islamic Resistance Movement, known by its Arabic acronym Hamas, has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007. The movement was founded in 1987 by quadriplegic Palestinian imam and activist Ahmed Yassin and has been associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. In the 2006 Palestinian legislative election, Hamas secured a majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council by campaigning on promises of a corruption-free government and advocating for resistance as a means to liberate Palestine from Israeli occupation. However, the Islamist organization, which does not recognize the existence of Israel, was seen as a significant threat to Israel. This tension culminated in the Battle of Gaza in 2007, after which Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip from the rival moderate Palestinian faction Fatah. Since then, Hamas has governed the territory independently of the Palestinian National Authority.

    Following Hamas’s takeover, Israel significantly intensified existing movement restrictions and imposed a complete blockade on the Gaza Strip, with Egypt also enforcing a blockade starting in 2007. Hamas has conducted attacks against Israeli civilians, including suicide bombings and rocket launches targeting Israeli cities. As a result of these militant activities and attacks on civilian targets, several countries – including Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States – have designated Hamas as a terrorist organization. Although Hamas has exploited the harsh conditions in Gaza caused by the blockade to fuel hatred among the youth, this situation has inadvertently benefited Israel, allowing them to brand Palestinians as terrorists and weaken Arab countries efforts to gain recognition for Palestine.

    The October 7th attack will be remembered as one of Hamas’s biggest blunders. At the time, Israel was deeply fractured by internal politics, with citizens protesting against the government. However, the Hamas attack unexpectedly united the Israeli people and strengthened their support for the government. Hamas may have believed that the weakened Israeli government would collapse under the assault, that taking hostages would soften Israel’s response, and that they could eventually negotiate peace through Qatari mediation, allowing Hamas to continue ruling Gaza and secure more funding from the Islamic world.

    However, Netanyahu, a shrewd leader, saw this as an opportunity to unite the nation and solidify his grip on power. Now, Israel no longer feels the need to compromise with Hamas or the Palestinians, as they have a clear justification for their actions.

    Life in Gaza is unbearable, with all boundaries of human suffering crossed. Even before the 2021 Israel-Palestine crisis, Gaza faced 48% unemployment, and half of its population lived in poverty. However, with the renewed Israel-Hamas conflict, life has become even more miserable. Death, injuries, and destruction have become daily occurrences, with businesses shutting down and access to basic necessities like food and water severely limited. As Hamas continues its battle with Israel, the United States and other countries have been limited in their ability to intervene, while Arab countries, which once celebrated Gaza as a symbol of Islamic resistance, are also not addressing the crisis. The people of Gaza seem abandoned, allowed by extremists to become martyrs for heaven. When we examine Hamas’s contribution to Palestine, it’s clear that they have made the lives of Gazans more miserable and have led to the collapse of the Palestinian cause.

  • How Mass Protests Are Shaking Bengal Politics

    How Mass Protests Are Shaking Bengal Politics

    West Bengal, India’s region of Bengal, is witnessing mass protests following unrest in neighboring Bangladesh that led to the toppling of its government. The protests in West Bengal were triggered by the brutal rape and murder of a junior doctor at Kolkata’s medical college and have shocked the nation. Although India’s police system is relatively strong and the protests have not descended into the same level of violence or anarchy seen in Bangladesh, the ongoing protests have become a significant challenge for the Bengal government, led by the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC). The AITC has been a fierce critic of Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led central government. The BJP has decided to leverage the situation to its advantage, and central agencies have stepped in to investigate. With nationwide criticism continuing ten days after the incident, many believe the unrest could further destabilize the state government.

    West Bengal, the eastern state of India formed after the division of Muslim-majority areas into Pakistan and later Bangladesh, has long claimed to be one of the most culturally influential regions, particularly in its reverence for the Hindu female deity Kali. The state asserts itself as the true heir of Bengali identity, a language-based identity that is gender-neutral, unlike many other Indian languages. Unfortunately, Bengal is now also known for an increase in crimes targeting women.

    The situation became notably concerning under Mamata Banerjee, the state’s female chief minister and founder of the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), who rose to prominence as one of India’s most influential political figures. Despite her strong position in elections, Banerjee has consistently faced criticism for failing to maintain law and order in the state. Gang rapes have become frequent, and the sensational case involving Sandesh Kahli, where an AITC leader was implicated in organized crimes against women with substantial support from local machinery, has highlighted these issues. Additionally, reports indicate that Muslim women in the state, many of whom migrated from Bangladesh, have faced violations of their basic civil rights. Government intervention has often been lacking, partly due to the political need of AITC to maintain support from the Muslim vote bank.

    The recent brutal attack on a doctor has intensified national attention, exposing attempts by the AITC government and authorities to cover up such incidents. Protests have erupted across West Bengal, with Kolkata, the state capital, emerging as the epicenter. Long marches and clashes between AITC supporters and protesters have disrupted daily life in Kolkata, one of India’s largest metropolitan areas.

    West Bengal’s political landscape is currently divided between the Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), which forms the state government, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is now the opposition in the state and leads the central government. The previous major players, the Communist Party of India and the Indian National Congress, have been ousted from the state, leaving the voter base split between the AITC and the BJP. The AITC now holds the secular and Islamist vote banks, while the BJP attracts Hindu nationalist votes. In previous contests, Mamata Banerjee and her AITC have been victorious, including in the last general elections.

    Political analysts are divided on the impact of the ongoing protests in Bengal politics. Some believe that the firm support of the Islamist community will provide Mamata Banerjee with momentum, as the BJP struggles to expand beyond Hindu votes and other parties that could have split the AITC’s vote base are currently inactive in West Bengal. However, some analysts predict that the reaction to these emotionally charged issues could mirror past events, such as the Nandigram firing incident that led to the ousting of the Communist Party, potentially leading to a similar fate for the AITC.

    The governor of the state, a representative of the central government, declared that West Bengal is not a safe place for women. Many believe this move could prompt the central government and the president to dissolve the state government and impose presidential rule, according to Article 356 of the Indian Constitution. BJP leaders, workers, and some pro-BJP figures are advocating for this action. From a political perspective, this represents a significant opportunity for the BJP, which has struggled to gain power in the last three assembly elections due to the firm support of Muslim votes for the AITC.

    The unrest in West Bengal poses severe security issues for India, particularly given the large number of Bangladeshis in the state and its history of Hindu-Muslim conflict. The central government fears that dissolving the West Bengal government could lead to further anarchy, similar to the situation in Kashmir. However, this situation has clearly shaken the West Bengal government, forcing Mamata Banerjee to take strong actions. The future of the protests will likely determine the fate of the West Bengal government, Mamata Banerjee and the All India Trinamool Congress.

  • Who Will Become Japan’s Next Prime Minister?

    Who Will Become Japan’s Next Prime Minister?

    As Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida decided to step down in September following his poor approval ratings, it has become certain that Japan will have a new prime minister next month. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a conservative party despite its name, is facing challenges in finding a successor. Their previous attempts, including Kishida, to continue the legacy of Shinzo Abe, who served as LDP’s prime minister from 2012 to 2020, have failed. The election to choose Kishida’s successor will take place during an LDP meeting in September.

    Kishida’s decision to step down has triggered one of the most unpredictable leadership races for the LDP in recent history. The selection process has turned what was once a competitive race with a vulnerable incumbent into an open contest with numerous credible contenders but no clear frontrunner. Among the potential successors are party insiders, unconventional ministers, and, in a rare move for Japan, two MPs under the age of 50. The presence of two women in the race also raises the possibility – however slim – of the country’s first female prime minister. This uncertainty is fitting, as it comes at a time of significant instability for the LDP, a broad coalition of conservatives that has governed modern Japan for most of the time since its establishment in the mid-1950s.

    Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister in his 60s who has declared his intention to run, could play a key role in the party’s future. Although he has failed in four previous attempts to become party leader, Ishiba consistently polls well among voters and should easily secure the 20 endorsements from lawmakers required to enter the race. The final decision will be made by the party’s 1.1 million members. Ishiba may face competition from digital minister Taro Kono, a moderate, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. The candidacy of two women is also notable. Yoko Kamikawa is one of the two women who might become prime minister if she receives support from Fumio Kishida. Meanwhile, Sanae Takaichi, the economic security minister and a right-wing favorite, recently underscored her conservative credentials with a visit to Yasukuni Shrine, a site linked to Japan’s militarist past. The party’s secretary-general, Toshimitsu Motegi, is likely ruled out due to his connection with factional maneuvering that has alienated voters.

    Kishida could still influence the race, especially if he supports another potential candidate, Yoko Kamikawa, whom he appointed last year as Japan’s first female foreign minister in nearly two decades. Although Kishida is not popular with the public, he remains influential within the party. If he backs Kamikawa and secures support from others in the LDP, she could become a strong candidate.

    The unexpected decision provides the LDP with some breathing room. With a month to choose a new leader and a year before the general election scheduled for October 2025, the new leader’s top priority will be to restore public trust before the next general election. The LDP’s next leader must be able to unite the party and effectively manage the government, with experience being more valuable than mere popularity in polls. Kishida’s successor will also need to address pressing issues such as the rising cost of living, escalating tensions with China and North Korea, and the potential return of Donald Trump as U.S. president. If the LDP selects a leader without addressing public concerns over political funding scandals, the party could face a significant defeat in the upcoming election. It would be advantageous for the LDP to choose a young leader with no ties to the current administration who can offer a fresh vision for the party.

    Given that the parliament is controlled by the LDP, the new leader will not face immediate challenges from within. However, if the party performs poorly, it risks losing its administration after nearly 13 years and potentially seeing the return of the opposition. As regional tensions with the U.S. and China escalate, strong governance is essential for Japan to safeguard its interests.

  • Thailand Gets a New Prime Minister From an Influential Political Dynasty

    Thailand Gets a New Prime Minister From an Influential Political Dynasty

    Amid turbulent times in Thai politics, Thailand has appointed a new, young, and inexperienced prime minister from a very influential political dynasty. With political power largely removed from the hands of the people and focused on preserving the constitutional monarchy, the situation became more complicated after the constitutional court ousted the previous prime minister, Srettha, on dubious charges. In response, the remaining politicians, after various bans in the legislative assembly, acted rapidly under the leadership of billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to prevent division and military rule. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, has now been chosen as Thailand’s next prime minister after securing enough support from lawmakers.

    Paetongtarn, 37, the youngest of three children of the controversial political figure Thaksin Shinawatra, will become Thailand’s youngest and only the second female prime minister. Her appointment on Friday followed 24 hours of intense negotiations. Speaking on Thursday after being named Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate, Paetongtarn expressed her respect for the ousted Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, acknowledging the unfortunate circumstances of his departure and emphasizing the need for the country to progress. However, analysts are skeptical, suggesting that her appointment may have been orchestrated by authorities and the Thaksin family. The Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, won the last general election but was subsequently banned by authorities due to its reformist stance. Despite the court’s decision to finalize the ban, the public remains supportive of MFP. By allowing Thaksin’s return, authorities hoped to mitigate public discontent. Young charming woman leader is definitely a good choice to deliver this hope.  Paetongtarn played a significant role in Pheu Thai’s election campaign, leveraging her family’s popularity among older rural voters in the north and northeast. Although her party finished second in the election behind Pita’s Move Forward Party, she did not run for prime minister last year. According to power brokers, she may now be ready for the role.

    Paetongtarn is the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to become prime minister, underscoring the family’s significant influence in Thai politics. However, she faces the challenge of leading a country that has moved beyond her father’s era. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006 before being ousted in a coup. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, was briefly prime minister in 2008, and his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, held the position from 2011 to 2014, both being forced from office by court rulings. Following his political setbacks, Thaksin went into self-imposed exile that stretched 15 years to avoid imprisonment and returned only recently. Many believe that through Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s influence will continue to shape the country’s leadership.

    Despite being Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn must prove herself as she takes office amidst significant political instability. Lacking prior government experience, she needed to secure 247 votes from the 493 members of parliament for confirmation. Although she achieved this, her tenure remains uncertain, and she could be dismissed at any moment, similar to her predecessors and other family members. Additionally, she faces challenges not only from the authorities but also from reformists who may form new parties and leadership to gain significant public support. Paetongtarn is in for a challenging journey ahead.

  • Why Doesn’t the Islamic World Have a Superpower to Challenge Israel?

    Why Doesn’t the Islamic World Have a Superpower to Challenge Israel?

    The conflict between Muslims and Jews has historical roots extending over centuries, primarily driven by religious differences rather than just territorial disputes. This is why the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict attracts worldwide attention and involves Muslims and Jews globally. Social media is abuzz with propaganda from both sides. However, on the ground, Israel has a significant advantage as a sovereign state with advanced project management, while Hamas, which governs Gaza and initiated the fresh wave of conflict with terrorist attacks in Israel, finds itself on the defensive with only weakened support from Iran. The conflict appears to be heavily skewed in favor of one side, with the Hamas side suffering greatly.

    In terms of international politics, Israel receives support from superpowers like the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, while countries like Russia, China, and India maintain a more neutral stance. This support provides Israel with a substantial advantage. On the other hand, Hamas and Gaza mainly receive backing from Iran, whose capabilities are in question. This raises the question: why are there no superpowers in the Arab or Muslim world capable of challenging Israel?

    The answer lies in U.S. supremacy in a unipolar world. Although there is widespread anger and calls for solidarity with Hamas across the Islamic world, which stretches from Morocco to Indonesia, these are largely limited to public statements. This situation represents a clear victory for U.S. diplomacy, which has either aligned powerful countries with U.S. interests or severely weakened others. A powerful or superpower country typically has strong leadership, economic influence, political influence, strong international alliances, and a strong military, but few countries in the Islamic world possess all these features combined. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey are considered powerful countries within the Islamic world today, but they are all aligned with the United States. Turkey is a NATO member with tight ties to the U.S., while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are highly reliant on business with the U.S., and their leadership maintains strong connections with U.S. diplomats. They also have military defense pacts with the U.S. Qatar, one of the wealthiest Islamic countries, also maintains a close relationship with the U.S. Despite their connections with Islamist leaders and organizations, and their roles in mediating with groups like Hamas and the Taliban.

    All the countries that previously challenged Israel are now weakened and humbled by U.S. strategies and diplomacy. Egypt, home to the largest army in the Middle East and the leader of last century’s Arab movements against Israel, along with Libya, Iraq, and Syria – countries that once challenged Israel—have lost the leadership capable of making such decisions. They are experiencing severe economic decline and face significant domestic challenges. Now, it seems that the Islamic Republic of Iran is currently the only major power from the Muslim world still challenging Israel. However, Iran has also been economically weakened by strong U.S. sanctions and faces serious domestic issues. Iran has been stunned and humbled by Israel through severe attacks. While Iran has vowed revenge, it has not taken any significant actions that are visibly effective. Nonetheless, Iran has not completely withdrawn from its ideological commitment to opposing Israel, unlike other states. Iran continues to fund organizations fighting against Israel, and Qatar is also reported to be providing support. Despite these efforts, no one is currently able to effectively challenge Israel, highlighting the weakness of the Islamic world outside of its elaborate organizations.

    As Israel is not ready for a truce, it seems likely that Gaza will be systematically annexed by Israel. This outcome appears inevitable. The stance of Islamic countries, which avoids a regional war, may bring peace, but it is clear that the position of Muslim governments does not reflect the sentiment of their populations. This could lead to a revival of terrorist organizations like ISIS in the Islamic world, which would bring more challenges in the region.

  • Thailand’s Political Drama Seeks New Actor for Prime Minister Role

    Thailand’s Political Drama Seeks New Actor for Prime Minister Role

    Thailand’s constitutional monarchy is viewed by observers as an ongoing political drama full of twists and turns. In the latest episode, the caretaker government’s prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, was ousted by the court for breaching ethical standards. This occurred just days after the constitutional court issued a high-profile verdict banning the political party and leaders who won the majority in the general election under lese-majeste laws.

    The coalition government was formed with the full support of royal establishments and authorities after overturning last year’s election results. This movement was backed by the courts, which effectively nullified the people’s verdict by law. The caretaker government, led by Srettha Thavisin, never garnered public support and is now facing a forced leadership change in an effort to regain public backing. The constitutional court ruled that Srettha had seriously violated ethical standards by appointing Thaksin’s former lawyer, Pichit Chuenban, to a cabinet position. Pichit was briefly imprisoned for contempt of court in 2008 over an unproven allegation of attempting to bribe court staff. Now, the leading party in the coalition, the Pheu Thai Party, has been tasked with finding a new prime minister.

    The Pheu Thai Party, a populist party lacking the reformist drive of Pita’s Move Forward Party, will convene on Thursday to select a successor for the ousted former prime minister, Srettha Thavisin. The party is working swiftly to strengthen its alliance ahead of a critical parliamentary vote on a new prime minister. Pheu Thai must choose between two candidates: Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney-general and justice minister, and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of controversial political figure Thaksin Shinawatra, who is also the party’s inexperienced leader.

    The constitutional court’s decision to dismiss Srettha on Wednesday not only dealt a significant blow to Pheu Thai but also to the political influence of the billionaire Shinawatra family, which has been at odds with Thailand’s powerful establishment and royalist military for two decades. Interestingly, Srettha is now the fourth premier from this movement to be ousted by a court ruling, and his removal may signal the end of a fragile truce between Thaksin and his opponents in the conservative elite and military establishment—a truce that had enabled the tycoon’s return from self-exile in 2023 and paved the way for Srettha’s rise to the premiership on the same day.

    Pheu Thai has acted swiftly to maintain its advantage, with media broadcasting live images late Wednesday of its coalition partners visiting the residence of its founder and influential figurehead, 75-year-old Thaksin. They aim to be decisive – any delay could lead to more infighting and power struggles, so the sooner they can hold a vote, the better. A quicker vote would make it easier to manage the process and control the outcome in the house.

    The convening of parliament less than 48 hours after Srettha’s dismissal stands in sharp contrast to last year, when it took two months for the lower house to convene and vote on a new premier following an election. At that time, lawmakers aligned with the military had united to block the anti-establishment election winner Move Forward from forming a government, but they later supported Srettha and Pheu Thai in a subsequent vote six weeks later. The 11-party Pheu Thai alliance, which holds 314 house seats, should have no trouble electing a prime minister on Friday, provided it remains united. A candidate must gain the support of more than half of the current 493 lawmakers to be elected as prime minister.

    Pheu Thai faces a crucial decision: whether to choose party veteran Chaikasem or take a gamble on newcomer Paetongtarn, despite the risk of triggering a backlash similar to the one that led to her father and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra being ousted in coups before fleeing into exile to avoid imprisonment. They will likely choose a successor soon, but the political drama is far from over, and it will continue until the people ultimately determine the final outcome. And after all, Bangladesh is not so far from Bangkok.