Author: Caracal

  • How Much Has the Taliban Changed Afghanistan?

    How Much Has the Taliban Changed Afghanistan?

    The West abandoned Afghanistan, which is now ruled by the extreme Islamist organization, the Taliban, and is entering another year under outdated and inhuman laws. The land, long controlled by various foreign powers from Indian rulers to the United States, now has its own leaders, although influenced by foreign philosophies. News from the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is no longer making front-page headlines and is almost being neglected by the world media. This may be due to the perception that nothing more than expected is happening, and the repetition of such news has become mundane. The suppression of women, brutal punishments, and enforced dress codes are all nothing new. Some analysts previously believed that the new Taliban, allowed to take control of Afghanistan by the United States, would be different from the previous regime and that Afghanistan might adopt more relaxed Islamic laws, after two years, Afghanistan remains a strictly Islamic and regressive state.

    Even though it may seem planned or scripted, The new era of Taliban rule commenced shortly after NATO troops began their withdrawal. The Taliban swiftly launched an offensive against the Afghan government, making rapid advances as Afghan government forces collapsed. In August 2021, the Taliban seized the capital city of Kabul after regaining control over the vast majority of Afghanistan. Though the state of war in the country officially ended in 2021 with the reestablishment of an Islamic state, armed conflict persists in some regions due to fighting between the Taliban and the local branch of Islamic terrorist organizations, as well as an anti-Taliban republican insurgency.

    The Taliban government, which mostly resembles the Islamic Republic of Iran government, albeit the Sunni version, is led by Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Acting Prime Minister Hasan Akhund, both inaugurated in September 2021. Akhund is among the four founders of the Taliban and formerly served as a deputy prime minister of the previous emirate. His appointment was perceived as a compromise between moderates and hardliners. A new, all-male cabinet was formed by obeying Islamic Laws. The United Nations did not recognize the Taliban government and chose to work with the then government-in-exile instead. However, more countries, including Russia, are now seeking diplomatic relationships with the central Asian country due to its crucial location. Despite having sustained almost two years, the country’s economic and social conditions are reported to be worsening.

    After the NATO withdrawal, the country experienced a steep decline in its financial condition. Subsequently, following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, Western nations suspended most of their humanitarian aid to the country. Furthermore, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund halted their payments. Reports of food shortages and famine, along with expected news of banning females from education and public life, were common at the time of the takeover and in the following months. The help from Islamic countries like Qatar is now the backbone of the country’s economy. And addressing the economic reality, The Taliban is slowly promoting tourism now. 

    Afghanistan has high potential for tourism, but it was disturbed by the Islamic resurgence in the 1990s. Kabul was one of the favorite destinations for Indians and Europeans. The country’s most sought-after tourist destination is the Mountainous Bamiyan, a UNESCO World Heritage site, and the remains of two giant Buddha statues that were blown up by the Taliban during their previous rule in 2001. Since taking over Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban have pledged to restore security and have encouraged a small but growing number of tourists to trickle back into the country. They sold tickets to visit the site of the destroyed Buddha statues. However, the threat from Islamists continues, jeopardizing Afghanistan’s chances. Just recently, an attack by the Islamic State killed three Spanish tourists. Previously, the Islamic State had claimed responsibility for an attack that injured Chinese citizens at a hotel popular with Chinese business people in Kabul in 2022.

    Social conditions are also a significant concern about the country. Despite promises of a more moderate rule, the Taliban began carrying out severe punishments in public, executions, floggings, and stoning, shortly after returning to power in 2021. These punishments resemble those witnessed during the Taliban’s previous rule in the late 1990s. Last week, the Taliban conducted public floggings of more than 60 people, including over a dozen women, in the northern Sari Pul province.

    At least 63 people were lashed on Tuesday by Afghanistan’s de facto authorities, as confirmed by the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan in a statement. The mission denounced corporal punishment and urged adherence to international human rights obligations. The Taliban’s supreme court also confirmed the public flogging of 63 individuals, including 14 women accused of crimes such as sodomy, theft, and immoral relations. They were subjected to flogging at a sports stadium. Separate statements by the supreme court reported that a man and a woman, convicted of adultery and attempting to flee from home, were flogged in northern Panjshir province on Wednesday. Earlier this year, the Taliban publicly executed a man convicted of murder, with thousands watching at a stadium in northern Jawzjan province. This incident marked the fifth public execution since the Taliban seized power.

    The disastrous fate and misery of the beautiful Asian country continues. Unlike their previous emirate, The Taliban is now more mild. they don’t intervene in terrorism in other countries, and they are not considered a threat even by neighbors. However, life in Afghanistan does not vary significantly from the previous term. Strict Islamic laws continue, with women already ousted from public places, and outdated punishments described in Islamic rules still persist. Therefore, changes are evident in Afghanistan, but only in a regressive manner.

  • What Does the European Parliament Election Mean for Asia?

    What Does the European Parliament Election Mean for Asia?

    An important election is underway in Europe for the next European Parliament. Voting is taking place in all 27 nations of the European Union (EU), with polling set to conclude on Sunday. Approximately 373 million people across Europe are participating in the election to choose 720 members of the Parliament. This election will be crucial in shaping the priorities and political trajectory of the influential European Union for the next five years. The EU is currently dealing with pressing issues such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as challenges related to immigration and climate change. Polls suggest that hard-right parties are expected to make significant gains in several countries, a development that could have profound long-term implications for the continent. The world’s largest multi-country election, involving influential countries like France and Germany, will also impact global politics. Furthermore, many issues affecting Asia are also being discussed in the election campaigns.

    The European Parliament is the only EU institution where representatives are directly elected, and its Members of Parliament pass laws that are applied across all member states. For any legislation to be implemented, both the Council and the Parliament must agree. The Parliament also has ultimate approval over the funds allocated in the EU budget. The European Parliament is often the final authority on major policy issues such as the budget, trade, and sanctions on foreign nationals. It can also put major international objectives on hold, in the interest of the bloc.

    There are seven main groupings in the European Parliament, ranging from the extremes of the far right to the far left. The two dominant groupings are the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). Because of proportional representation, no single group holds a majority, necessitating the formation of broad coalitions to accomplish tasks in Parliament. While these two parties are expected to be the largest after the elections, all eyes are on the other main right-wing groups: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the hard-right, populist Identity and Democracy (ID). Once all the votes have been counted, each national political party will be assigned a number of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) relative to their vote share. It is up to the member states to determine how these seats are allocated. Full results are expected on Monday.

    The European market is crucial for Asian countries, making this election significant in light of the ongoing trade war with tariffs and other regulations. The trade conflict that began between the USA and China has now extended to Europe. The European market is a significant outlet for Chinese production, and additional regulations on Chinese goods will undoubtedly impact the Chinese economy and potentially the broader Asian economy as well. Right-wing groups are concerned about the loss of production to China and are advocating for more aggressive actions against market penetration by Chinese products. The push from Chinese companies in the electric vehicle (EV) market is being scrutinized by Parliament, and China is awaiting the results to gauge future trade laws against them. There is also a plan to find alternatives to China, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, and it is expected that the European Parliament will pursue this.

    As there are many migrants from Asia to Europe, both legal and illegal, this causes concern among right-wing groups, who frequently criticize current immigration laws. Therefore, the European Parliament election results are important for shaping future immigration policies, with expectations of tighter immigration controls. The current immigration system by the EU is contributing to the rapid development of far-right politics in Europe. Climate change is a key issue in the election campaigns. While left and green parties are advocating for more stringent emission restrictions, it is expected that the right-wing will gain ground in this election and work towards rolling back climate policies. This could indirectly benefit the Asian economy, as climate change discussions and restrictions have often targeted countries like China, India, and oil producers in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in Gaza will also be influenced by the European Parliament election. The Gaza war is currently supported by many European countries, but the European Union does not intervene much. As the conflict continues, many believe that Europe needs to take a move. The upcoming parliament may not intervene in the conflict, given that right-wing parties generally support Israel’s actions. The parliament’s approach to expanding European influence into the Caucasus will also be closely monitored, as it could significantly impact the power dynamics in Asia. 

    It is expected that the European election trend will also influence the elections in member states. A surge of far-right influence is anticipated in Europe’s upcoming elections, including in France. If they perform well in the European Parliament election, it could herald a golden age of far-right politics in Europe. This would not only influence and shape the European Union and the European continent but also have repercussions across all continents. Asia is likely to bear the brunt, especially as tensions rise between the superpowers.

  • Singapore to Conduct General Election Earlier?

    Singapore to Conduct General Election Earlier?

    While several months remain before the general election in Singapore, rumors are circulating that the election might be conducted earlier than currently expected. Updates from the Singapore Elections Department and the increased activity of political parties have led analysts to suggest that a general election could be called as early as September. This would be just four months after Singapore’s rare and only third leadership transition, during which Lawrence Wong succeeded Lee Hsien Loong as Prime Minister. This election will be a significant test for Wong as he faces public scrutiny for the first time in this role.

    By November 23, 2025, Singapore must hold a general election to establish the composition of its fifteenth Parliament. The upcoming general election will be the fourteenth since independence. Although there are several months remaining before the election and the completion of the current Parliament’s five-year term, the actions of political parties and other significant entities are causing analysts to speculate. Political parties have been ramping up activities both publicly and behind the scenes, even though the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee, which must be convened before a general election, has not yet been formed. In addition to the movements of political parties, the Elections Department has updated balloting processes and voter rolls, fueling speculation about an impending election. The department announced several updates to the election process, including the appointment of a returning officer, a public official appointed by the prime minister, who has the authority to direct individuals and social media firms to remove online election advertising that may breach rules. 

    All parties, including the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), have entered into an election mood. The People’s Action Party secured a significant victory in the 2020 general election, which was its most challenging contest since independence. The PAP won a majority of seats, losing only three electoral divisions, and has maintained its grip on power since the country’s independence. PAP has spent the past six months collecting feedback from volunteers through a “Refresh PAP” initiative, spearheaded by newly minted Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. Wong is expected to address PAP Members of Parliament and supporters on June 8 about the feedback from the initiative and how the PAP plans to incorporate it. The PAP aims to increase efforts to build stronger connections with Singaporeans and retain their confidence and trust. Wong has called for more diversity among newcomers and improvements in communication channels. The engagement sessions started early this year, with several talks posted on social media by party members using the hashtag #RefreshPAP. The PAP is modifying its election strategies. With a new campaign, new strategies, and a new Prime Minister, the PAP is looking for a fresh start. 

    Meanwhile, the opposition parties are also preparing for the election, anticipating a possible early call. The Workers’ Party is continuing its efforts to maintain its strongholds in Hougang and Aljunied, as well as in other areas it contested in the 2020 general election, such as Tampines, East Coast, and Marine Parade. They are aiming for a strong performance in the Jalan Besar group constituency as well. Although the party did not contest Jalan Besar in 2020, it did so in the 2015 election. Another important opposition party, the Progress Singapore Party, with Secretary-General Hazel Poa stating that her party, which currently holds two non-constituency MP seats, is prepared for the election to be called at any time. Non-constituency MP seats are awarded to opposition parties whose candidates perform best without winning a seat in an election. Poa stated that since last month, her party has been conducting two to four walkabouts and door-to-door visits every weekend.

    Even Though the election department did not know when the election would be held but emphasized that it must be ready whenever the vote was called. In March, the department responded to media queries by stating that about 50,000 public servants were being appointed as election officials, with training set to begin in April. Singapore has a history of calling early elections; for instance, in 2015, then-Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong informed Parliament on July 13 that the committee had been formed two months earlier. The committee’s report was subsequently submitted on July 21, and the election was called on August 25. The process could even be expedited with advancements in technology. In 1991, the report was completed on August 8, and Parliament was dissolved six days later on August 14. So fast.

    But there is also opposition to calling an early election. Many believe that a September election would be “hasty” and a more likely window would be after the 2025 budget statement. One of the key political events of the year, Singapore’s budget speech, is typically delivered by the finance minister in February. Many believe that Wong should not rush to seek a fresh mandate and instead take his time to make his case to voters. However, given the rapid preparations, it seems there is a high chance of an early call for a general election.

  • Modi Warned by Indian Voters

    Modi Warned by Indian Voters

    We love you, Modi. We need you, but we will not provide you with excessive power. This is the exact outcome of the Indian general election 2024. Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister, who was seeking a third consecutive term, failed to capture a majority single-handedly as he did in the previous two elections and is now forced to collaborate with allies. As per the latest report, it is certain that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will clinch power with 300 MPs, including independents who won in the election. However, the election results are contrary to celebrated predictions, which gave Modi a single-handed majority of 300 MPs out of 543. Many believe this unexpected election result is part of voters concern that securing a continuous mandate in favor of Modi could lead to authoritarianism and push him towards the collapse of the republic founded in 1950, ultimately leading to a Hindu nation.

    There were reported instances of authoritarianism and threats to the secular Indian republic during Modi’s second tenure and even during the campaign for this general election. Opposition figures who were reluctant to join BJP were punished by detective agencies, and the main opposition party, Indian National Congress, had its funds frozen at a time when they were in dire need. Additionally, all media, business tycoons, and movie stars aligned with the BJP, and the campaigns often turned into hate campaigns. Modi’s campaign highly idolized himself with slogans like ”Modi ki Guarantee” and he frequently boasted that he would win 400 seats while the opposition would not even cross 50. However, something different happened, as the election results proved.

    Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party can form a government, no doubts about it. BJP won 240 seats out of 543. No one is nearer, and the main opposition party Indian National Congress collected only 99 seats. There is no need to compare these two parties to determine the winner by tally. But Modi faces humiliation in India’s social media space because he alone couldn’t reach the 272 mark, the majority. Social media finds it amusing with the amount of money they used, the machinery they deployed, and all the tactics to tackle opposition chances. BJP still didn’t get the result they expected, and now they are relying on other parties. They are no longer invincible in India. 

    People appreciate Modi’s charisma and Indians admire his leadership. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that they may not fully endorse all of Modi’s unilateral actions; they prioritize safeguarding the constitution and halting authoritarian tendencies. Now, the BJP must broaden its alliances and foster more discussions among its allies and opposition, a departure from the previous term. Despite Modi’s assurance of continuing with allies, it remains to be seen how long he can sustain a united front. Modi previously ruled single-handedly, establishing his own brand by marginalizing other ministers and exercising control over every ministry. Going forward, this will not be feasible as they will have allies with differing interests. Modi can move forward, with parties like the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal United ready to join the BJP in a possible BJP-led NDA government. However, they may not fully support Modi’s policies and the BJP’s foundation agendas, which lean towards Hindu nationalism. Consequently, Modi faces constraints.

    The performance of opposition parties deserves applause, even though they failed to displace Modi. The Indian National Congress, which won 99 seats this time, doesn’t need to plead with the BJP for the official opposition leader post, which wasn’t granted in the previous two instances. The election results also favored the alliance led by the Indian National Congress, marking a resurgence for its leader Rahul Gandhi, who traveled across India to regain lost ground, although his leadership was previously questioned. The Samajwadi Party, the third-largest party in the election results, caused a major upset by breaking the BJP’s fortress in Uttar Pradesh and reducing seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party, securing 37 seats. Other parties in the opposition alliance, such as the Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, also performed well but fell short of toppling Modi’s dominance. However, the election results will undoubtedly boost the opposition alliance and parties, enabling them to raise issues like unemployment more prominently in the public sphere. It is expected that Indian media will finally allocate screen time to opposition parties as well.

    Indian democracy, frequently criticized by the West and seen as a bad example for democracy. But the election results show how Indians value their democracy and how they make decisions to safeguard the republic each time. Even though they did not punish Modi like they did with the previous autocracy wisher, Indira Gandhi, by giving all the mandate to the opposition bloc, they sent a strong message to Modi that the republic will be preserved. The possible next government by Modi will likely emphasize development programs instead of pushing Hindu agendas. For Modi, it’s time to review his actions and correct them; he has acted more like a king than a Prime Minister. So, the election results are good for Modi, good for the Opposition, and good for the republic.

  • India Entering A Political Circus

    India Entering A Political Circus

    Indian politicians and political parties are well known for their flexibility. They can shift sides sacrificing their political aims and stances to secure administration and power. This trend was common in the 1990s when several governments formed in New Delhi without a single majority, mixing up different ideological parties. Even parties that fought each other in Lok Sabha General elections would form alliances to form a government. There are several examples of this phenomenon; we even saw the Hindu Nationalist Party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Anti-Hindu Ideology Party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), coming together solely for the objective of forming a government, only to fail and soon after, find another partner. This trend, which badly affected India’s growth and the credibility of Indian politics, was diminished with the entry of Narendra Modi into national-level politics. He secured the magical number to form the government single-handedly in the general election. BJP formed the government with a single-handed majority but added their close allies ceremonially in 2014 and 2019. There was no scope for political circuses. Though the election results for the 2024 general election are coming out, BJP doesn’t have a single-handed majority, and is offering a great time for Political Circus again.

    While the Election Commission of India still has not officially published the full election results, the media is already announcing the outcome of the marathon Indian general election, stretched over seven phases and spanning over three months. It dealt a huge blow to predictions and opinion polls, which had anticipated more than 350 seats for the BJP-led alliance out of the 543 total constituencies, foreseeing an easy victory for the BJP. Even though the BJP emerged as the largest party after the election, it fell short by 32 seats  (at the time of writing) for a majority, which is 272. The main opposition party, INC, nearly doubled its previous seat count to 100, and with their alliance, they posed a tough fight for the BJP. At first glance, it may seem that the BJP-led alliance could easily form a government as they have a tally above the 272 mark. However, this is where India’s political circus comes into focus. The BJP-led alliance includes Janata Dal United (JDU), with 12 seats, and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), with 16 seats. They are known for their swing politics, having previously cooperated with the Indian National Congress. If they receive a favorable offer, they may jump to the opposition alliance, and to the hope of the Bharatiya Janata Party, these swing parties could also align with the BJP. Interestingly, besides the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress, everyone seems capable of switching sides.

    Even Though Modi can climb to the prime minister post for the third time, it’s sure it will not be the same as the previous Modi government. As the importance comes for the local parties which can help BJP to touch 272 mark, they can’t agree with the supremacy of Modi in Government,  idolizing and celebrating him in the government programs, and direct control of the Prime minister’s office in ministries. Sure, there will be opposition from allies. While BJP makes a mixture of the different politics in NDA, it’s sure different interests of each party will collide, Possible allies Janata dal united and Telugu Desam Party have regional interest and they uphold secularism over BJP’s Hindu nationalism. So bringing the bills in parliament, especially the bills projecting BJP’s ideologies, will be challenging unlike previous times. BJP’s flagship objectives like Uniform civil code, unification of Indosphere, which is widely expected to be carried on Modi’s third term with a great majority,  is in limbo now. Probably Allies, which projects secularism and regionalism will not cooperate with them.

    Indian circuses, widely known in the name of Bombay circuses were great entertainment to  watch and the current scenario in Indian politics after the general election results, with scope for a possible political circus will also be expected to offer entertainment. BJP has the upper hand, as they are still the biggest party, but who is going to stay with them is important. Before election results were announced, BJP leaders started talks with its current allies and parties in opposite blocs. BJP previously formed several state governments, by effectively catching the parties from the opposition bloc. The same strategy is expected by BJP here and they will form a government at whatever the cost. And INC the second biggest party, and Samajwadi Party third biggest party, they are allies now and They will probably wait, to watch the happenings, and they will try their best to  topple the BJP-led government, there is now more scope for them. The General election results clearly show BJP losing their tight grip in Indian Political space, and give negotiation capacity for small parties. It is sure that Modi’s third government will be completely different from the previous two terms.

  • Maldives to Worsen Relations with Israel

    Maldives to Worsen Relations with Israel

    Maldives, an Islamic Republic archipelago nation in the Indian Ocean, sustains its economy with tourism. The country, which boasts a comparatively higher living standards in South Asia and attracts a large number of tourists from all over the world, is making headlines with its strong reactions against Israel’s Gaza attack. Unlike government-level actions in the past, the Maldives has now decided to close its doors to Israeli citizens by implementing passport controls. Such action from the ruling Muizzu government, as a result of increased protests against Israel and as part of global Muslim solidarity, may worsen the country’s relationship with the West and thereby affect its economy.

    President Mohamed Muizzu has decided to impose a ban on Israeli passports without providing details on when the new law will take effect. Israelis love to visit the coral islands and luxurious resorts of the Maldives, but the Maldivian government does not share this interest. The offering of direct flights was denied by the Maldivian Transport Ministry. However, nearly 11,000 Israelis visited the Maldives in 2023. Official data showed that the number of Israelis visiting the Maldives dropped to 528 in the first four months of this year amid the tensions, down 88% compared to the same period last year.

    As a country with Islamic fundamentalism, the Maldives has always sought to uphold its Islamic character. Although they welcomed tourists from Western countries and India in large numbers due to a lack of other sources of income. And tourism has significantly improved the country’s income and quality of life. However, in recent years, both inside and outside parliament, there have been numerous events emphasizing its Islamic importance, which could impact the tourism sector. Hatred towards Israeli tourists and Jews is prevalent in the government and society, which advocates for Palestine. Last year, Maldivians held protests to stop Israeli tourism in the Maldives, showing solidarity with Palestinians. Maldivian MP Saud Hussain submitted a resolution to parliament to ban Israeli passport holders from entering the country, and Maldivians increasingly called for a boycott of Israel-linked companies. Opposition parties and government allies in the Maldives have been pressuring Muizzu to ban Israelis as a protest against the Gaza war. Following these events, in 2024, Maldivian MP Meekail Ahmed Naseem submitted a bill to parliament calling for a ban on entry for Israeli passport holders, which was promptly accepted, and the country has started implementing that law. The president’s office announced on Sunday that the cabinet decided to change the laws to prevent Israeli passport holders from entering the country and to establish a subcommittee to oversee the process. Muizzu also introduced a national fundraising campaign named ‘Maldivians in Solidarity with Palestine’.

    The Maldives has a complex relationship with Israel. The Maldives had lifted a previous ban on Israeli tourists in the early 1990s and moved to restore relations in the 2010s. According to the rulers of the country, this decision will change. The countries had good diplomatic relations from 1965 to 1974. From 2012 to 2017, they maintained cooperation agreements but did not restore full diplomatic relations. There were reports during the time of Mohammed Nasheed, who overthrew long-ruling Gayoom, that there were attempts at normalization. However, normalization attempts were scuttled after the toppling of then-president Mohamed Nasheed in February 2012. While Gulf countries normalized relationships, there were also talks, but the ruling politicians denied it. The Maldives maintains its stance in international venues too. The Maldives condemned the Israeli attacks on Rafah and called on Israel to abide by the International Court of Justice’s ruling.

    Israel’s foreign ministry urged Israeli citizens on Sunday to refrain from traveling to the Maldives. The ministry clarified that this advisory extended to Israelis with dual citizenship. “For Israeli citizens already in the country, it is recommended to consider leaving, because if they find themselves in distress for any reason, it will be difficult for us to assist”, the ministry said in a statement. And if Israel raises safety concerns, it will influence other western countries. 

    The travel ban to the islands will not matter much for Israel but is a self-destructive move for the Maldives. The country’s erratic politicians have already deterred Indian tourists by making silly comments about the nation, including racist remarks against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The immature political decisions have worsened tourist’s interest in the country, even though the country aims to attract more Chinese and Islamic tourists. Recent actions, such as the ban on Israelis, will undoubtedly damage the country’s reputation among the western population. Ultimately it’s all affecting the already strained economy, burdened by Chinese debt. It appears that politicians excel at triggering self-destructive outcomes.

  • Biden Pushes for Ceasefire in Gaza

    Biden Pushes for Ceasefire in Gaza

    Israel’s war on Gaza is continuing without an end in sight. More than a war, it’s easy to describe it as Israel’s rage against Hamas for killing their citizens and taking their people as hostages, affecting the civilians of Gaza. It’s emotional, sentimental, and religious. The world is split, with protests occurring from New York to Australia, and social media filled with hate comments. Several movements advocate for a truce, but Israel is determined to achieve complete control over Gaza and demolish Hamas from their territory. However, protests are also fuming in Israel, coupled with the prolonged war and fear about hostages, along with demands for post-war plans from the coalition government, creating disturbances for Israel.

    In the latest development, the US is now working seriously towards a ceasefire in Gaza, as it faces humiliation due to its weakened power over Israel and its commitment to human rights. With the US elections six months away, many expect that Biden will lose votes due to poor performance on the Israel issue, with Democrats anticipating a loss of support from Arab Americans and young voters. This is troubling for Biden, and they are finally making some reliable moves for a ceasefire in Gaza.

    During a news conference at the White House on Friday afternoon, President Biden stated that Israel has put forward a comprehensive new proposal to end the war, which serves as a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire. Israel has agreed to a proposal that would lead to a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. Biden explained that the proposal involves three phases extending over months. The first phase would last six weeks and include a full and complete ceasefire in Gaza, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza. Furthermore, the initial phase would entail the release of several captives held in Gaza, including women and the elderly. In exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel, humanitarian aid would be provided to Gaza. Israel faces deep pressure from within for delaying the rescue of captives. Biden also noted the presence of American hostages who would be released at this stage. He mentioned that Qatar, acting as an intermediary for Islamic terrorist organizations, had transmitted the proposal to Hamas.

    In the second phase, which also lasts six weeks, all remaining hostages would be released, Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza, and both parties would commit to a lasting truce. Finally, a reconstruction plan for Gaza would begin in phase three of the proposal, and the remains of any captives killed would be returned to their families. This plan appears feasible for both parties in the current scenario.

    Hamas, which created all the dilemma and actively tried for a ceasefire in Gaza and proposed a deal previously with the help of Qatar and Egypt, said it welcomed Biden’s remarks and his call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction, and prisoner exchange. The group also said it was ready to respond “Positively and Constructively” to any proposal that includes those measures – as well as the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes in Gaza. They consider it a win for them because they conducted Jihad, and Israel and their well-known agencies can’t free the hostages who are kept by Hamas. 

    But on the Israeli side, it’s not easy. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated that he authorized the country’s negotiating team to present a proposal aiming to secure the release of captives held in Gaza. Currently, Israel considers the immediate release of hostages important. However, the Prime Minister also stated that Israel will persist with the war until all its objectives are met, including the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities. The prime minister said Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.

    However, Netanyahu  is facing growing pressure from his military and intelligence chiefs, as well as the centrist members of his war cabinet, to outline a plan for administering and rebuilding Gaza when the war ends. Benny Gantz, a major rival who joined Netanyahu’s emergency unity government after 7 October, has said he will resign if the prime minister does not commit to a “Day After” plan by a deadline of 8 June. And there will be huge backlash from the Right wings too, for ending war without completely destroying Hamas. There are many who consider a ceasefire in Gaza itself a defeat.  It’s expected that the post-war situation will be challenging for Netanyahu as a leader because of a lot of corruption accusations against him. So many don’t believe the move from Israel is reliable, and it’s just a wish from Biden. The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, reportedly concluded from a visit to the region that he did not believe Netanyahu could or would commit to a long-term peace process.

    Biden’s announcement came as efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza have faltered amid the Israeli military’s push into the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The Israeli siege, which has led to dire shortages of food, water, and other humanitarian supplies, has spurred warnings of famine, but Israel is actually not looking to end the war immediately, or Netanyahu cannot do that now. It’s expected that the Gaza war will drag on for another seven months at least, but it will badly hurt Biden’s re-election prospects, who are already facing criticism for poor foreign involvement. While Biden pushes for Israel to agree to the plan, members of Netanyahu’s coalition government will disagree with the proposal and call for the war to continue. This situation makes it complex, so it is expected to once again highlight the weakness of the US government under Biden and it will continue the punishment for Gaza.

  • Is Taiwan’s Democracy Under Threat?

    Is Taiwan’s Democracy Under Threat?

    Taiwan, or the Republic of China, is the “Model China” for the West, mainly because of two reasons: one is hatred towards communism, and the other is democracy. Even though the country was founded under the authoritarian leader Chiang Kai-shek, Taiwan is included in the category of full democracy and ranked 10th globally in the Economist Democracy Index, indicating that the country has one of the best democratic systems. However, the introduction of PRC-like controversial reform bills is raising concerns about democracy in the state. Inside and outside the parliament, protests are intensifying, and experts believe that, in the name of protecting the island from mainland China’s interests, and crackdown of corruption, Taiwan is becoming increasingly authoritarian.

    Taiwan’s opposition-controlled parliament has passed a controversial reform bill despite heavy protests. The bill seeks to expand the legislature’s power to call on and question officials, military figures, and citizens, as well as demand documents. It is perceived as an attempt to establish complete control over people, reminiscent of the Chinese Communist Party’s laws. After days of hostile debate and physical fights between MPs inside, and mass protests by citizens outside, the bill passed in the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament. The bill passed 58 votes to 45, after a third reading on Tuesday evening in Taipei, during which there were further scuffles and members of the ruling party threw paper planes and hurled garbage bags at the opposition.

    The bills were driven by the two major opposition parties, the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) and the populist Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which together hold a majority in parliament after gaining ground over the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in January’s elections. The KMT-TPP legislative majority coalition is seeking to introduce a set of powers for improved institutional checks and balances, legislative strengthening, and democratic consolidation. These powers include the power to investigate, the power of inquiry, contempt resolutions, a normalized presidential address to the legislature, and the power to confirm appointments.

     When the final votes were tallied, triumphant KMT and TPP legislators waved small balloons shaped like suns. Proponents say legislative reform is needed in Taiwan for greater accountability and argue that these bills are similar to some that the ruling DPP attempted to introduce when they had a legislative majority. Remnants of over a week of hostilities and late-night deliberations, such as placards, flowers, and stacks of furniture, encircled the parliamentarians, while tens of thousands of protesters gathered outside. After the bill passed, KMT caucus whip Fu Kun-chi announced that the opposition would create a special task force to investigate alleged corruption within the DPP.

    The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) told the media it would reject the new bill and the President will send it back for review, seeking a legal ruling on its constitutionality. Despite having worked on similar bills when they held a majority in parliament, Caucus Whip Ker Chien-ming stated that the bill’s content was “Absolutely Unconstitutional” and questioned the legality of the voting process. The DPP accused the opposition of using the reforms to undermine President Lai Ching-te’s administration, which was formally inaugurated last Monday. The DPP and its supporters claim that the opposition is undermining Taiwan’s democratic processes to push the bill through, Contending that the proposed law could be readily exploited to target political adversaries and disrupt the operations of Lai’s administration.

    The protests are the largest Taiwan has seen since the 2014 Sunflower Movement, a time that many protesters this week referenced and drew inspiration from. Outside the building, tens of thousands of individuals congregated to protest against the bills for the third time in a week. The protest movement was named the Bluebird Movement, a name orthographically similar to Qingdao East Road, where the main protests took place. The rallies featured a full day of speakers and musical acts. Crowds surged as work and school concluded, coinciding with the passage of the bill.

    With the president and the ruling party at odds with the opposition-majority parliament, ongoing conflicts are expected to persist, posing a significant challenge for newly inaugurated President Lai. He must navigate political adversaries in the parliament while also addressing China’s threats to annex Taiwan. However, it is evident that such bills, whether proposed by the DPP or the opposition alliance, will weaken Taiwan’s democratic system. Without a robust democracy, there will be little difference between Taiwan and Mainland China.

  • Can Modi’s Third Term Bring Akhand Bharat Closer?

    Can Modi’s Third Term Bring Akhand Bharat Closer?

    Only one phase of polling remains out of the seven phases of the marathon Indian general election, which has stretched over three months. On July 4th, the election results will be published. Even though predicting the minds of a billion people is challenging, the media are forecasting an edge for the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is expected to secure a consecutive third term. If a strong leader like Modi and Hindu Nationalist Party  awarded a continuous third term, it is expected that there will be more actions fulfilling the long-held wishes of Hindu organizations, with a priority on the formation of Akhand Bharat, a greater Indosphere, stretching Afghanistan to Myanmar, including all South Asian countries.

    Last year, on the occasion of the inauguration of India’s new parliament building, a mural was unveiled that depicted a map of the Maurya Empire under Ashoka. This map, instead of modern India, sparked controversy and criticism from several of India’s neighboring countries, as almost all of them were part of that ancient empire. Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, then spokesperson for the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, condemned the mural, branding it as an expression of revisionism and expansionism. Similarly, the junior minister for foreign affairs of Bangladesh voiced concerns, noting widespread discontent over the depicted map. Additionally, numerous Nepali politicians voiced their apprehensions about the mural.

    While India appears to be employing a strategy akin to China’s, which asserts claims over neighboring territories using the Qing Dynasty map, it has not assuaged the concerns of its neighbors. Responding to these concerns, Arindam Bagchi, the spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, conveyed that the mural embodies the concept of responsible and people-centered governance championed by the ancient king Ashoka and the Maurya empire. However, it is evident that the map aligns with the agenda of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which advocates for a revival of India’s past glory. Politicians in the BJP, including Minister of Parliamentary Affairs Pralhad Joshi, proudly declared it as a symbol of Akhand Bharat, the Pan-Indian country, asserting it as their destiny.

    Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist right wing party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have often been accused of far-right politics that aim to revive India’s ancient histories and mythologies. He frequently speaks about restoring India to its former glory. Modi also made headlines with his promotion of the ancient name “Bharat” instead of the Western name “India” and by making  a strong objective of reclaiming the Pakistan-held territory of Kashmir.

    Akhand Bharat has been a long-standing demand since the Indian independence movement. The call for the creation of Akhand Bharat has occasionally been raised by various Hindu nationalist organizations, including the BJP’s parent organization, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS textbook included a map that depicted Pakistan and Bangladesh as part of “Akhand Bharat,” along with post-partition modern India. Additionally, a trade union magazine from the same organization extended this concept to include Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar. Moreover RSS, there are many other organizations advocating for this idea, such as the Hindu Mahasabha, Vishva Hindu Parishad, Shiv Sena, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, Hindu Sena, and Hindu Janajagruti Samiti. There is even one organization named the Akhand Hindustan Morcha that has this goal in its name. Many Hindu organizations believe that Akhand Bharat, stretching from Afghanistan to Myanmar and from Kashmir to Sri Lanka, is the true country they deserve. They advocate for this region, collectively called Akhand Bharat, as it reflects the ancient Hindu empires that once covered this entire area. They claim evidence for their pan-nation theory exists in the languages and cultures of these regions.

    According to these Hindu organizations, Mughal and Islamic rule, referred to as Ottoman colonization, and British colonization caused the decline of the greater Indosphere, the pan-nation. They believe that when the demand for Indian independence was ignited, Britain, who not wanting a superpower in Asia, conspired with the Indian National Congress under Nehru to fragment India and lose these territories. The subsequent Congress government neglected the idea of Akhand Bharat.

    However, they believe this is the perfect time to achieve this goal. Under Modi’s regime, they think they can reunite these territories with India and restore Akhand Bharat. Modi’s BJP aspires to continue ruling until 2047, the 100th anniversary of the Republic of India, and they believe it will happen during this period. BJP politicians have already expressed a desire to officially rename India to Bharat, its ancient name. Additionally, they have spoken about reclaiming Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, which was lost in the early years of independence. BJP supporters frequently use the map of Akhand Bharat in their campaigns to garner public support.

    Many believe that for those who support pan-India, the route to unification will be driven more by the economy than by the military. As India becomes economically richer and is expected to be the third-largest economy in the next decade, with per capita GDP also showing signs of improvement, there is a chance for closer collaboration with neighbors, potentially leading to an economic union or a strong confederation. Other countries in the region, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar are all facing deep economic crises and are largely reliant on China’s support. For Afghanistan and Pakistan, their opposition to India is primarily due to rising Islamic identity and funding from the Middle East for Islamic governance. However, it appears that the Middle East is now less interested in Islamic propaganda and these countries are now more connected with Chinese money. But Sri Lanka serves as an example of how a country can suffer from relying on Chinese money, and the Maldives might follow. These small countries reluctance towards India is only because of Chinese financial support. If Chinese financial support diminishes, countries like the Maldives, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar may have no other option but to collaborate with India. Bhutan already seems to be a collaborative country. These collaboration is expected to follow the confederation and the Akhand Bharth. 

    It’s certain that India will not attempt to induce unification into a single country through military means in the near future, as the Hindu organizations wish. Such actions would significantly hinder India’s goal of becoming a developed country by 2047. Instead, the BJP is likely to adopt a more tactical approach using economy, market, Media and Movies etc. With the interests of the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia in the region waning, increased financial investment and Indian influence could lead to greater cooperation and potentially a strong union, making Akhand Bharat a possible reality. If Modi continues into his third term, he will likely work towards this goal, as it is not only his vision but also a long-time demand of the BJP’s parent organization. It is certain he cannot move forward while ignoring it. Therefore, the result of the 2024 general election in India is not only important for India but also for the entire region.

  • What’s Behind North Korea’s Waste-Filled Balloons?

    What’s Behind North Korea’s Waste-Filled Balloons?

    The use of propaganda balloons has long been a source of tension between North Korea and South Korea, two nations locked  in conflict since the 1950s. South Korea is an expert in this tactic, frequently sending propaganda-filled balloons to the North, which disturbed the communist government. They continued This practice until recently. However, South Korea ceased this action, While North Korea is reported to be sending balloons filled with human feces and rubbish.

    This “new way” for the authoritarian communist country to humiliate South Korea has quickly become a trending topic in the political sphere. On Wednesday, the South Korean military released photographs depicting inflated balloons tethered to plastic bags. Other images appeared to show trash strewn around collapsed balloons, with the word “Excrement” written on a bag in one photograph. This method, sending rubbish and feces, noted since the Scythian period, is a classic and ancient way to humiliate enemies. Considering North Korea’s large missile collection, one might wonder why they resort to such tactics. Nevertheless, North Korea’s inhumane and vulgar actions have sparked fury in South Korea.

    According to reports from South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, citing military sources, more than 150 balloons had been detected. Some of the balloons landed on the ground, while others were still in the air. Some of the balloons had traveled long distances, reaching as far as the southeastern province of South Gyeongsang, a province close to Japan. The fallen balloons appeared to have been carrying various items of rubbish, including plastic bottles, batteries, shoe parts, and what is believed to be manure, an official of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. South Korea has issued a warning to residents living near the border with North Korea to remain vigilant. The South Korean military reported that unidentified objects believed to be from North Korea had been spotted near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the heavily fortified border separating the two Koreas.

    The balloons arrived after Kim Kang-il, a North Korean defense vice-minister, warned that the regime would retaliate in response to anti-North Korean leaflets flown across the border in the opposite direction. For years, South Korean activists and North Korean defectors have launched balloons to North Korea containing leaflets that critique the regime and encourage North Koreans to challenge the longstanding rule of the Kim dynasty in the name of Communism. Additionally, they have transported USB memory sticks containing K-pop music videos, prohibited in the North. The North Korean leader dismisses this material as rubbish.

    Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, activists in the South released helium-filled balloons across the border. The balloons reportedly contained masks, over-the-counter painkillers, and vitamin C tablets, as well as booklets celebrating life in the wealthy, democratic South. The packages also included hundreds of USB sticks containing videos of US Congress members denouncing North Korea’s human rights record. Even though it may seem acceptable to the rest of the world, for North Korea, which claims not to have cases, it is considered humiliation. This is the same humiliation they are now inflicting on South Korea, sending a clear message that the material they send to the North is just rubbish, equivalent to feces, to them.

    While balloons were mostly used by human rights activists and Korean unification supporters in South Korea, the South Korean government didn’t intervene much in this. However, in 2020, the South Korean government, led by the liberal president Moon Jae-in, drew an angry response from human rights activists after it took action against two defector organizations that routinely released propaganda balloons, accusing them of unnecessarily provoking the North and hampering efforts to improve cross-border ties. The government rescinded the permits of the groups when they consistently disregarded official requests to cease the flights.. 

    For the regime in Pyongyang, the balloons represent a potential existential threat since they challenge the carefully crafted narrative surrounding the Kim dynasty and the people blocked from outside the world. The regime routinely describes their contents as “Dirty Waste” and claims that they were responsible for spreading the coronavirus through the balloon packages.

    The cross-border balloon activity was reduced during Moon’s administration, which criminalized leafleting campaigns in a law introduced in early 2021, six months after Pyongyang expressed its anger over the leaflets by blowing up an inter-Korean liaison office in the North Korean border town of Kaesong. However, after two years, South Korea’s constitutional court nullified the contentious leafleting law, deeming it an undue restriction on free speech. With the court’s grant and North Korea’s move to send waste to South Korea through balloons, more balloon launches are expected to be prompted. The mutual humiliations are not expected to escalate to a military level.