Author: Caracal

  • Significance of Putin’s Visit to China

    Significance of Putin’s Visit to China

    Russia and China, once the fighting communist brothers, now appear to be in a great relationship. The bond between Moscow and Beijing has reached unprecedented levels. Both Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping celebrated their “no-limits” friendship, recognizing it as a counterbalance to the global influence of the US. This partnership is becoming stronger as the Biden administration seeks to isolate Russia from its Chinese lifeline following the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. While Russia increases its attacks in Ukraine and the United States increasingly expands into the Russosphere, President Vladimir Putin has arrived once again in Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, as he seeks to showcase the enduring strength of the relationship and engage in further discussions with Chinese authorities. It is Putin’s second visit to Beijing in less than a year, the first after he took his fresh term, and the visit will also commemorate 75 years since the Soviet Union recognized the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

    Even Though, there are alot security issues to discuss, Experts believe business and the economy will be the main topics of discussion in Putin’s meeting with Xi. The two sides will be seeking ways to quietly circumvent US restrictions that have led to a decrease in Chinese exports to Russia following a post-war boom in both consumer products and dual-use goods, which have been crucial to the Russian war machine in Ukraine. China’s major banks are throttling payments out of concern over US sanctions, prompting Russia to propose a solution to the issue through a decentralized payment system that the West would be unable to track. Both sides will seek mechanisms that are immune to sanctions in the future. China officially opposes US sanctions, but in reality, banks and companies often find ways to comply to avoid encountering blowback from the US or being blocked from US dollar payments. Russia also aims to confront the decline in its gas exports, which have sharply dropped since its invasion of Ukraine, causing record losses for Gazprom, formerly the nation’s most profitable company. However, observers question whether Moscow and Beijing will be able to finalize an agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a long-anticipated project that would supply China with Russian gas. Putin is bringing an expanded team of advisers and industry leaders to Beijing; the team includes a number of seasoned technocrats whom he has dubbed the Russian “A-Team”.

    Putin’s relationship with Xi first took shape in May 2014 when the Russian leader traveled to Beijing for a two-day state visit to discuss a major gas supply deal. The visit occurred shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, resulting in Moscow being isolated by many Western countries. Xi promptly returned the favor by visiting Moscow and sitting alongside Putin during the city’s Victory Parade, an event boycotted by Western leaders as Russian-backed rebels seized territory in eastern Ukraine. Weeks before Putin sent his troops to invade Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian leader flew to Beijing where the two leaders famously celebrated their “no-limits” friendship. In an unmistakable show of support for Putin after his decision to invade Ukraine, Xi traveled to Moscow in the spring of 2023. For all the favors China does for Russia, in return, China gained a strong ally, as they have no more powerful allies. Xi praised Putin as his “best friend,” and many deals were signed between Russia and China. Russia provided China with oil and natural gas at a cheap rate and opened up the markets of Russia and Central Asian countries to China, which was an important move for China as they are losing European, American, and Indian markets. The United States responded fiercely. With tariffs raised by Trump, the Biden administration unveiled tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports last Tuesday. Tariffs were extended or introduced on a range of strategic sectors, including solar panels, electric vehicles, and semiconductors. On electric vehicles, rates were hiked from 25% to 100%, a situation that can pull them out of the flourishing market. 

    The Russian leader’s two-day trip to China comes as his country’s forces have pressed an offensive in northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, which began last week, marking the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began. Russia, which has signaled it is unwilling to abandon the war, will become increasingly dependent on China as a trade partner and as a key diplomatic ally in its deepening conflict with the West. Tensions in the South China Sea, increasing blocs in East Asia, and Central Asia’s recent lean towards the United States, and possibly Gaza, will be additional talking points. However, the primary objective of this meeting will be to prove their friendship to each other and demonstrate it to their enemies.

  • What’s behind Malaysia’s Orangutan Diplomacy?

    What’s behind Malaysia’s Orangutan Diplomacy?

    The tradition of exchanging animals as part of friendship has been observed by many countries in the past. However, China transformed this practice into a continuous diplomatic strategy. Panda diplomacy, the act of sending adorable, giant pandas from China to other countries for diplomacy and wildlife conservation purposes, serves as a strategy to demonstrate their appreciation for friendships and their dedication to nature preservation. Panda diplomacy catches the news headlines because of the exceptional rarity of the species, fascination that pandas evoke. Now, Malaysia, a country heavily criticized for its deforestation for large-scale palm cultivation, is also adopting China’s strategy to demonstrate its commitment to nature. Although Malaysia doesn’t have pandas, they possess another rare species, the orangutan.

    Malaysia faces pressure from the EU, one of its largest trade partners, which last year approved an import ban on commodities linked to deforestation. The action will severely impact the Malaysian economy, which relies on palm oil exportation. Malaysia criticized the law as discriminatory and began working with states that are consumers of their palm oil to reduce obstacles and continue trade. Thus, Malaysia adopted a strategy widely known as orangutan diplomacy, as it plans to give orangutans as gifts to countries that buy its palm oil to ease concerns over the environmental impact of the commodity. This commodity is prevalent in more than half of supermarkets from food to cosmetics. Over the years, media and environmental workers have accused the global demand for palm oil of fueling deforestation in Malaysia and neighboring Indonesia. According to Malaysia’s Plantations and Commodities Minister, Johari Abdul Ghani, the act of gifting the rare species orangutans to trading partners such as the EU, China, and India would demonstrate Malaysia’s commitment to biodiversity conservation to the global community. He emphasized that the country could not take a defensive approach to the issue of palm oil. Instead, they need to show the world that Malaysia is a sustainable oil palm producer committed to protecting forests and environmental sustainability.

    The Bornean orangutan, which is endemic to the island of Borneo, is listed as critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, akin to Giant Pandas in China. Besides Malaysia’s part of the Borneo island, orangutans are visible in the Indonesian part of Borneo and Sumatra. The numbers of orangutans are noted to be decreasing while the governments of Malaysia and Indonesia make efforts to conserve them. As the threat orangutans face from the shrinking of their natural habitats, rainforests, wildlife organizations have taken different stances on Orangutan diplomacy. Many have called on the Malaysian government to consider other ways to signal its commitment to protecting the species. On the other hand, many welcomed the government’s commitment to supporting coexistence with Malaysian wildlife, believing it will be a success like the panda diplomacy model, which has successfully promoted the conservation of species. Panda diplomacy led the species to be a talking point in western nations, and funds were raised for saving pandas from extinction. The Chinese government started to work more for their ambassador, and western nations also looked to support the preservation of Giant Pandas. Many wildlife conservators believe that through orangutan diplomacy, the problems facing orangutans will come into the spotlight, and the Malaysian government will work more for orangutan conservation.

    Palm oil holds significant importance in the Malaysian economy, serving as the cheap and widely available cooking oil in India and Pakistan, and used in food and cosmetics across Europe and the Americas, and even as biofuel in some countries, making it an indispensable commodity. Malaysia’s palm oil cultivation extends over roughly 5,000,000 hectares (19,000 square miles) of land, which was once forested. In light of concerns regarding deforestation, the Malaysian government pledged to curb the expansion of palm oil plantations by ensuring that at least half of the nation’s land remains covered by forests. Nonetheless, this effort faces significant challenges, particularly with rising demand leading to the expansion of plantations in Indonesia, and subsequent deforestation in Indonesia. The rainforests of both these countries are crucial for the world, and their loss would considerably impact global climate patterns. Therefore, reducing the usage of Palm oil is the strategy evolved to reduce the reliance on Palm oil, with the European Union leading this effort, which will likely extend to the USA and many other countries. 

    However, it’s clear any regulation  will significantly impact the Malaysian economy. In this context, Malaysia, seeking to continue in the European market and others, is demonstrating its dedication to nature and wildlife conservation through Orangutan diplomacy. By showcasing their commitment to nature, they expect to retain the market with them. Therefore, the Malaysian government’s Orangutan diplomacy will contribute to preserving the Malaysian economy and wildlife simultaneously.

  • How the Congress leader’s racist remark stirred controversy in India?

    How the Congress leader’s racist remark stirred controversy in India?

    Racism is an accepted joke in India. It is visible in public spaces, offices, and almost everywhere. Indian movies often depict scenes making jokes about black people and glorifying white individuals. It’s a common trend where villains and hooligans are portrayed as black, while heroes and heroines are white. People from the northeast, primarily Mongoloid, were humiliated by being referred to as other nationalities like Chinese. Furthermore, Southern Indian individuals have been called derogatory terms such as “negroes” by Indo-European people in the northern regions. As Southern Indian and northeastern individuals become more educated and attain better financial conditions compared to northern India, and as they ascend to important positions in government bodies, derogatory jokes of this nature have gradually diminished. However, as the General Election season heats up, the racist comment made by the leader of the Indian National Congress (INC) has once again brought racism in India to the forefront as a contentious issue.

    Sam Pitroda, a telecom entrepreneur, advisor to former prime ministers, and the former chairman of the Indian National Congress’s overseas wing, made a controversial comment that suddenly became a trending topic in Indian political spheres. He stated that over the past 75 years, Indians had thrived in a harmonious environment where people had coexisted, despite occasional disputes. Indians managed to unite a nation as diverse as India, where individuals in the east resembled those from China, in the west like Arabs, in the north like Europeans, and perhaps in the south like Africans. Furthermore, he added that diversity was not a problem at all as Indians considered themselves as brothers and sisters. However, the comments comparing South Indians, predominantly of Dravidian ethnicity, to Africans, and likening North East Indian people to the enemy country Chinese, were suddenly thrust into India’s political sphere.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), facing a tough fight from the Indian National Congress-led alliance in the ongoing general election, found Sam’s comment to be a boon. They cunningly used the comment made by the 81-year-old when only 3 out of 7 total phases had been completed, with remaining places including some in South India, a stronghold of the Indian National Congress. However, the BJP shrewdly exploited the situation against the Indian National Congress, highlighting their British connection and Rahul Gandhi’s Italian heritage, the current leader and star campaigner of the Indian National Congress. The BJP has consistently accused foreign media of aiding the Congress, and this incident was skillfully directed towards the influence of foreign culture on Indian culture. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself entered the stage, stating that Pitroda’s comment reflects the mindset of the Indian National Congress and their white worship. He added that Indians revere Lord Krishna, who is depicted as black, and do not harbor racist thoughts.

    The Indian National Congress, which was gaining momentum in Indian election campaigns, was severely hit by Sam Pitroda’s comment. Prior to this incident, there was another comment by Pitroda that caused trouble for Congress by suggesting an inheritance tax on the new wealth management system. Modi also used this comment against Congress by interpreting it from another perspective. As Pitrodha repeatedly made controversial statements, Congress removed him from his position and stated they do not support his statements. They accused the BJP of using his statements in a manner that he did not mean, and claimed that the BJP is diverting voters’ attention from the real issues in Indian politics. Some leaders suggest that the Indian culture Modi advocates has more racist elements than Western culture. However, the comments celebrated in the Indian political space will likely trouble the Indian National Congress.

    India is a multi-ethnic, multilingual country. Many wonder how such a country with so much diversity can exist. However, the country demonstrates unity and economic progress. Many believe that comments like those made by Sam Pitroda will affect India’s diverse culture and integrity, while others believe that Indian society accepts this kind of racism as humor and will overlook it. However, timing was crucial, and the BJP effectively used the situation. It’s time to rethink the leadership of INC, the venerable party, as their own leaders consistently lead them into trouble and their victories handed to the BJP. Regardless of the political aspect, such comments have far reaching consequences.

  • Is Iran losing grip on Iraq?

    Is Iran losing grip on Iraq?

    Iraq is in the midst of a power struggle between two power houses: one is their neighbor, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the other is the United States. Both parties are heavily interested in this country, which is divided between Shia, Sunni Muslims, and Kurds, situated in a volatile location in the Middle East. After turbulent years under Saddam Hussein and a subsequent power vacuum, Iraqi politics became heavily influenced by Iran due to the rise of Shia-based political parties. The interests of Shia, Sunni, Iran, and the US  have led to the near disintegration of the state, with the country nearly fragmented and the northern Kurdish territory almost functioning as an independent nation. However, in recent years, it is noted that this Shia-majority country is shifting away from Iran-oriented politics. Many believe that Iraq is drawing closer to the US and distancing itself from Iran.

    Iraq operates as a federal parliamentary representative democratic republic. It follows a multi-party system where executive authority rests with the Prime Minister of the Council of Ministers, serving as the head of government, and the President of Iraq, who serves as the head of state. The Council of Representatives holds legislative power. Abdul Latif Rashid, an ethnic Kurd, currently holds the presidency, wielding significant executive authority. He appointed the Council of Ministers, functioning as the cabinet or government. Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani, a Shia leader, serves as the current prime minister. Despite its democratic framework, Iraq exhibits signs of an increasingly authoritarian regime. But As regional tensions escalate, Washington will enhance its relationship with Iraq and may consider Iraq’s prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as a potential intermediary in its dealings with Iran.

    Both the United States and Iraq find themselves in a period where they need each other. Al-Sudani recently visited Washington, DC, meeting President Joe Biden and other top US officials. From the White House, al-Sudani addressed the regional tensions and expressed his encouragement for all efforts to stop the expansion of the conflict area. Iraqi officials state that their country was among a handful informed by Iran of the attack on Israel, which followed an Israeli strike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus. For the US, the Iran-Israel clash highlighted the necessity of maintaining US troops in Iraq for the time being and emphasized the need for the Iraqi government to do more to prevent Iraq from being used as a base of operations against the US and Israel by Iran and allied groups. More than 20 years after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 aimed at removing former leader Saddam Hussein, 2,500 US troops are still stationed in the country, primarily undertaking counter-ISIL (ISIS) roles. Amid regional tensions, al-Sudani appears to prioritize Iraq’s domestic issues, and aims to attract investment in the country’s private sector. Iraq’s economy remains highly reliant on the United States and its financial infrastructure. Al-Sudani is advocating for fewer American restrictions on the Iraqi banking system, increased investments, and enhanced security ties.

    Iran-aligned groups, such as the militias that constitute the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), pose a threat to both Iraq and US troops stationed there, with many expecting them to become the next al-Qaeda. US troops became targets in the aftermath of Israel’s war on Gaza. There is reason to fear Iran-aligned groups in the country remobilizing if regional tensions expand.  Finding a balance between Iran’s influence and US interests is not easy, with al-Sudani pushed to call for a complete withdrawal of US troops in January, seemingly in response to some 53 US attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. It’s made clear that al-Sudani doesn’t want to provoke enmity with Iran either. However, his warming connection with the US suggests a weakening of Iran’s control over Iraqi politics. Iraq is set to hold elections in 2025, and the prime minister needs the support of his domestic backers as well as the US if he wants to renew his mandate.

    As for the US, Biden will have both domestic and regional concerns regarding Iraq. The Biden administration is seeking to counter Iranian influence in Iraq at a regional level. The US would seek commitments to ensure Iraq’s sovereignty by minimizing Iranian influence across all levels of decision-making, including politics, economics, and security. And the US will aim to persuade al-Sudani to cooperate with US allies in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. In the last six months, officials from the Kurdish regional government have made several visits to Washington, aiming to enlist the Biden administration’s support in mediating with Baghdad. The Kurdish leaders generally view Sudani favorably and see him as genuine in his efforts to resolve Baghdad-Erbil issues.

    Iraq, one of the oldest places of civilization, has the third richest oil reserve after Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, it’s true that the country has never fully utilized its potential. There are many blames attributed to the United States, who removed Saddam Hussein for his alleged weapons of mass destruction. Iran has also been blamed for pushing its interests and causing political turmoil in the country. Islamist organizations like Al-Qaeda and ISIS also played a role in the destruction of Iraq. There are many parties to blame, but ultimately, the people are the ones who suffer the most, and they witness the failing of their beautiful state. However, recent developments in politics, moving towards a more neutral stance and cooperating with the United States and its wealth, offer hope for improvements in Iraq.

  • How will Xi’s visit to Hungary influence Europe?

    How will Xi’s visit to Hungary influence Europe?

    Hungary, the central European state, which frequently criticizes Europe and maintains warm relations with Russia, was said to be a Trojan horse to Europe by international media. The country, with a conservative government under the leadership of Viktor Orban, has kept a closer relationship with Putin than with any other western leaders. Many expect this country will join the pole under the leadership of China and Russia. Both Chinese and Russian governments are keen to maintain their relationship with Hungary, their sole ally in the European Union. China, who is losing the European market gradually, is investing a lot of money in Hungary to keep their business in the European market through Hungary. Many officials from both countries are flying in both directions to advance this objective. Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hungary, and it is considered to further bolster the relationship between China and Hungary, strengthening their economic collaboration, which leaves many doubts in the European union.

    Xi’s visit to Hungary is part of the recently concluded Eurotrip, which was his first European tour in five years. Xi arrived in Hungary late on Wednesday after stops in Serbia and France, and he was given a ceremonial welcome by Hungary’s president, Tamás Sulyok, at Buda Castle in Budapest. Xi was also met by the controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the airport. The Hungarian prime minister, the EU’s longest-serving leader, has sought to deepen ties with Beijing and Moscow and blocked EU motions criticizing China’s human rights abuses. After their meeting, the Chinese state media agency Xinhua reported that China and Hungary had decided to elevate their ties to an “All-weather comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era”. Orbán mentioned that the two countries were planning to broaden their collaboration across all aspects, including the nuclear industry. In a major departure from the European mainstream, the Hungarian prime minister said he supported China’s “Peace Plan” for Ukraine. While Western leaders have criticized the Chinese peace plan, known as the 12-point plan, published in 2023, because it does not call on Russia to withdraw its forces or return territory, the biggest demand of Ukraine and Europe.

    The rapport between Europe and China has significantly worsened in recent years. In 2019, the EU labeled China as “A Systemic Rival,” and just last year, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized the necessity for Europe to “De-risk” its ties with Beijing. This involves, in part, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains. It’s visible that the trends of European countries withdrawing from Chinese investment, and Europe is said to be working to shift the global manufacturing hub from China. The increasing calls for “Make in Europe” were disrupted by China and their “Unfair” market strategies, including subsidies. European agencies are conducting investigations against Chinese businesses, and the relationship between Europe and China is at an all-time low in the 21st century. However, Hungary, which is marking 75 years of diplomatic relations with Beijing, has distanced itself from the EU strategy. They continue their warm relationship with China and keep their doors open for Chinese business. In return, the central European country has received billions in Chinese investment and hosts Huawei’s largest base outside China. BYD, a prominent Chinese automaker, is preparing to inaugurate its first production line for battery-powered cars in Europe, located in Szeged, Hungary. This initiative presents a considerable challenge for European companies operating at the core of Europe. Interestingly, one of the main causes for dispute between China and Europe is China’s interest in the European EV market, which can be dominated by the cheap EV cars of China. According to statements reported by China’s state news agency, Xinhua, Xi declared that the relationship between China and Hungary is now at its strongest point in history.

    The countries chosen for Xi’s Eurotrip are interesting. France has a neutral relationship with China, while Serbia and Hungary, two European countries, have strong relationships with China. This proves the political importance of the trip. Serbia has long supported China’s claim on Taiwan and has Beijing’s support for its claim to Kosovo. Although Serbia is not a member of the European Union and doesn’t have much influence in the European market, the agreements with the European Union’s member, Hungary, will impact European politics and the European market. Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, has stated that 16-18 cooperation agreements would be signed during Xi’s visit, one of which could be a large-scale infrastructure scheme within China’s vast Belt and Road project. These agreements will further strengthen the relationship and maintain China’s ties with Europe and their foothold in the European market.

  • China’s Efforts for Palestine and Its Effects in the Middle East

    China’s Efforts for Palestine and Its Effects in the Middle East

    As over six months have passed since Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s ongoing retaliation, we understand some important trends. Firstly, neither Israel nor Hamas currently wishes for a ceasefire. Secondly, the US doesn’t hold much power over Israel. Indeed, Biden has asked several times for a ceasefire in Gaza, though Israel doesn’t seem to obey it. In the latest development, the US has warned that they will stop providing weapons, but Israel seems unfazed. If the United States can’t take action, Europe remains merely an observer. Saudi Arabia and Iran have demonstrated their weakness in international politics. Russia, engaged in another unending war, likely won’t be inclined to talk peace. India appears to be leaning heavily towards Israel. Qatar, the usual Muslim intermediary, has failed in its efforts. So, who is left to conduct mediation talks on the world stage? We’ve overlooked one significant player: China, rising super power.

    The Soviet Union, once the second pole, was the biggest supporter of Palestine, but they don’t exist now. After three decades of a power vacuum created by the disintegration of the Soviet Union, now we have a significant contender: the dragon, China. During the time of the power vacuum, many things happened in Palestinian politics. The first was the split in administration between the West Bank and Gaza, which severely weakened Palestine. Sensing a diplomatic opening, Chinese President Xi Jinping is stepping up China’s intervention in the Middle East crisis. Beijing’s primary aim is to facilitate reconciliation between the two primary Palestinian factions: the secular Fatah and the Islamist Hamas. Last week, it hosted talks between these two groups. Palestinian unity is seen by China as the most probable and practical solution for Palestine. If Palestine becomes a recognizable country, they will gain more power, and probably China can lead them to more positions in the UN and other bodies. If China accomplishes this, there is no doubt China will be the winner in the Middle East. There has been actual improvement with China’s mediatory efforts. Musa Abu Marzouk, the head of Hamas’s international relations office, stated in a Sunday interview that he anticipates Fatah and Hamas returning to Beijing soon for a second round of talks. He also disclosed that Hamas had wanted China, Russia, and Turkey to act as co-guarantors of any peace deal between Hamas and Israel, signaling Hamas’s distrust of the US’s inability or unwillingness.

    Some analysts perceive China’s engagement as an attempt to supplant the US’s traditional role in between Israel and Palestine. However, China regards its actions as a continuation of the role it played last year in resolving the nine-year diplomatic standoff between Saudi Arabia and Iran. China’s good fortune may be its timing. There is a weak administration currently in the US, and even Japan’s president said last month that the US is in doubt on their own world leader role. In this situation, the initiative made by China is a more practical way to bring about change in Palestine and establish an authorized body as the first step in negotiations with Israel. Both Fatah and Hamas find themselves in difficult situations. Fatah has become significantly unpopular, while Hamas is actively hunted by Israel. Both parties are in need of peace and a resolution. However, there are many hurdles. Just prior to the negotiations, Hamas launched a critique against the new Fatah-led government in the West Bank, asserting that it was not consulted on its formation. Fatah hit back, saying it had not been consulted about Hamas’s attack on Israel. But if they all get into the structure of government and show some unity, they can be presented to Israel for more talks.  As China can fix the Saudi Arabia-Iran issue they can fix this also. 

    The Gaza conflict resulted in a strengthening of China’s pro-Palestinian stance in the Middle East. Within a week of the Hamas attack on 7th October, the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, described Israel’s bombardment of civilians in Gaza as actions that “have gone beyond the scope of self-defense” in a call with the Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud. Xi commented on the crisis after the Third Belt and Road Forum in late October. He restated China’s long-standing support for a two-state solution and pushed for the creation of a humanitarian corridor to aid the Gaza Strip. In February, Beijing pressed the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to weigh in on the legality of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian Territories, which China deemed unlawful. It appears that China is exerting more effort compared to what is being contributed by so-called Muslim allies.

    China has been a net importer of oil since 1993, with about half coming from the Middle East. China has become reliant on a region that the US continues to dominate. But as per latest geopolitical happenings, The Middle East now feels the advantage of having an alternative to Washington’s supremacy. Gulf states are heavily investing in China, driven by their desire to free themselves from oil dependence, wean themselves off their over-dependence on the US, and embrace emerging countries, industries, and markets. The US is resisting this trend, for instance, challenging Middle Eastern countries not to invest in Huawei. One of the factors driving Washington’s desire to strike normalization deals with Saudi Arabia is the belief that it can help marginalize Chinese influence in sensitive security and energy sectors. Though, as part of the power game, China now gives hope to Palestine and peace lovers through their efforts.

  • How will “Squad” be beneficial for the Philippines?

    How will “Squad” be beneficial for the Philippines?

    Amid rising tensions, more regional blocs are emerging in East Asia and the Pacific. In addition to the Quad, consisting of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, and AUKUS, a defense pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US, a new regional bloc linking Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States is getting advanced into a more permanent alliance. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met counterparts from Australia, Japan, and the Philippines last week as Washington sought to deepen ties within the rising regional group, which Pentagon officials had privately nicknamed the “‘Squad”. The quadrilateral marks the latest regional partnership Washington has forged to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the region, and the formation of the alliance holds importance in the region’s evolving landscape as the United States expects imminent tensions in the region.

    The Philippines confronts substantial risks in the South China Sea, owing to its geography and close proximity to the Chinese shore. Nevertheless, the informal alliance referred to as the Squad offers a significant opportunity for the country. The Philippines will receive security assistance including both hardware and human resource training. Analysts suggest that this alliance will enable Manila to “Borrow the Strength” of the other three nations in countering challenges from China and in elevating the Philippines status beyond that of a “Junior Partner”. The Squad is expected to undertake more maritime exercises and provide greater security assistance to the Philippines, which in recent months has been involved in several naval skirmishes with Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. Washington has made it clear to all nations, including China, that Beijing’s recent behavior in the disputed waterway is “Irresponsible” and “Disregards International Law”. 

    The Squad will not just provide Manila with enhanced “Diplomatic Assurances” and assistance in building its capabilities but also guarantee increased interoperability between the Philippines and its allies. The absence of the Philippines in the Quad, formed between Asia-Pacific superpowers like Australia, Japan, India, and the United States, was notable. When India, traditionally allied with Russia, joined forces to counter China, the Philippines, the United States key ally in the region, was not included. This omission appeared to disregard the importance of the Philippines in the regional tensions, but the new alliance appears to rectify this.  Many believe there will be the move to  integrate the Philippines into the Quad to turn it into a five-member grouping, and some believe the United States forming an Asia-Pacific version of NATO. There are more countries in the region facing the threat of China and have entered into separate pacts with the US, such as Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. They could join with them when analyzing the tensions in the region.

    However, there are also dissenting voices; some argue that likening China to the Soviet Union or Russia is a mistake, suggesting that these agreements primarily benefit US interests. Chinese analysts warned that the Philippines had become increasingly manipulated by the US, losing its autonomy and becoming a pawn of the US in the region. Countries like India, never an ally of the US, have joined with them only to counter China, and they hold separate interests in the region. The integrating security pact will not agree with India, as they have been seeking separate relationships, including with the Philippines. India has forged ties with Manila, as seen in the recent sales of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines, noting that India-Philippines ties were likely to progress in non-traditional security areas such as cybersecurity, anti-piracy, and anti-terrorism. Last month, India delivered its first batch of supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines under a $375 million deal signed in 2022. However, the recent aggression of China on Philippines vessels is validating the Philippines moves and bringing the country to the center of tensions. 

    The United States can’t allow a situation like Ukraine in the South China Sea because significant suffering is occurring for the US and Europe due to the war. Additionally, as China seems to be losing momentum and facing significant challenges in its manufacturing sector, many predict that this situation will lead to an aggressive stance from China in the South China Sea, with the Philippines being a sure target in that situation. Here underscores the significance of the Squad; a bolstered opposition could prompt China to reassess its position. For the Philippines, it extends beyond security concerns; they foresee that aligning with the US can elevate them to the status of a regional power.

  • What’s Behind The Dip In Voting Percentage In India?

    What’s Behind The Dip In Voting Percentage In India?

    It’s a massive effort being carried out by the Indian government and the Election Commission to conduct the mammoth general election. The voting schedule spans seven phases over a two-month period, involving almost 970 million voters. A significant amount of money is being spent on campaigns to bring almost every voter to the polling booths. Democracy is only complete with the participation of people. Although efforts have been made by the Election Commission and political parties, the first three phases of polls have concluded with a lukewarm response. In the first two phases, there was a dip in percentage turnout, and in the third phase, although comparatively better, it remained low. Why are Indian voters reluctant to cast their votes? Which party will benefit from the low turnout?

    After extensive campaigning by both the Election Commission and political parties for the general election, the first phase of polling was conducted on April 19th, but it marked a decrease in the recorded vote percentage. As many as 102 seats went to the polls in the first phase, with a final turnout of 66.14 per cent, a decrease under 4 percent from 70 per cent in 2019. This phenomenon sparked curiosity in the electoral arena as younger voters, increasingly active on social media discussing politics, are observed to be less engaged in actually casting their votes. All political parties were disappointed as they did not receive the expected turnout. The first phase included Tamil Nadu, a southern state where Modi heavily concentrated, but the voting percentage decreased. There was zero voter turnout in 6 districts in Nagaland amid a shutdown call by some organizations, and the BJP’s stronghold recorded a lower turnout than in 2019. The trend continued in the second phase as well. In the second phase, for 88 seats, the election was conducted on April 26, registering a dip of about 3 percentage points in the voter turnout from 69.64 per cent in 2019. Interestingly, states like Kerala, which usually have a high percentage of voting, also recorded a lower turnout.

    Despite some single-digit percentage decreases, considering India’s mammoth population, there will be thousands of people withdrawing from the voting process, which is a significant blow to Indian democracy. This goes against the trend of increasing voter turnout in the last election when youths were increasingly ready to participate. However, the recent dip shows that youths are not actively participating, posing a threat to democracy. Fortunately, in the third phase of polling, after calls from the Prime Minister and the Election Commission to encourage participation in the election, on May 7th, a turnout of 64.45% was recorded, which is closer to the turnout in 2019. Thanks to Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, and Tripura, but the most populous state with a higher number of constituencies, Uttar Pradesh, continued the trend of decreasing percentage, with only 52.24% voter turnout. This means almost half of the population did not take part in the election, raising concerns for the Election Commission.

    While the Election Commission attributes the lower voter percentage to the harsh summer, with temperatures rising over 40°C and heat waves making people reluctant to vote, there are also political causes behind this decline. As experiencing a dip in voter percentage from 2019, which had propelled Modi and the BJP to power, it surely will affect Modi’s third term wish. A lower turnout indicates that there is no wave for Modi and Hindu vote consolidation. Opposition leaders also point out that the lower voting percentage, with all their votes are ensured, and the high interest among Muslim voters in the election will give the opposition party an edge. Experts believe that people’s reluctance to vote in connection with many believe election results will not bring any change, Modi will surely win his third term, that opinion polls and news channels predict, oppositions have nothing to do with it. They have become disinterested in the election, expecting a sure win for the BJP. Some are also discontent with Modi’s campaign that says they will surely win more than 400 seats, that brings an idea to people that the election result is already decided. Though It is clear that the ruling party will suffer more with a lower percentage, opposition parties also fear that besides party votes neutral votes will not be casted, so, they all are working to fix the issues in the upcoming phases.

    Three out of the seven phases of the Indian general election have been completed, leaving four more phases before the scheduled vote counting on June 4th. However, with several phases still ahead, out of the 543 seats, the election process for over half, 283 seats, has concluded. The remaining places include important states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Punjab. Political parties are addressing the lower turnout, and they are increasing their efforts to bring more people to the polling stations in the upcoming phases. National leaders, including the Prime Minister, are urging citizens to cast their votes, while the Election Commission is also working to enhance facilities and attract more voters. However, as every vote counts in democracy, people’s reluctance to participate is not a good sign.

  • Why Is The Pakistan-Afghanistan Relationship In Crisis?

    Why Is The Pakistan-Afghanistan Relationship In Crisis?

    Pakistan, a country troubled with borders, is facing a deep existential crisis. The multi-ethnic, multilingual nation continues to exist due to its strong adherence to Islamism and animosity towards India. However, the state has already faltered due to poor governance, recurrent military rule, escalating separatist movements, and rampant terrorist activities. Challenges also emanate from neighboring countries. India, the primary adversary, is increasingly assertive in its demand for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Additionally, relations with Iran have soured over Balochistan, while territorial disputes strain ties with Afghanistan. Afghanistan has never acknowledged the Durand Line, the border line between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which traverses the heartland of the Pashtun. Nevertheless, the relationship with Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Islamic brother, is crucial for Pakistan due to unique geographical challenges and the potential threat posed by India. But as like the twists in Bollywood movies Afghanistan is now the biggest concern of Pakistan.

    Pakistan, once accused of nurturing terrorism, reaped benefits from it. Serious blasts in Indian economic centers and Jammu Kashmir served to stun India, portraying it as lacking security in international media. Terrorism also served strategic purposes in Iran and Afghanistan. The Taliban, current rulers of Afghanistan, emerged from Pakistan’s terrorist nurturing programs. However, terrorism eventually turned against itself as terrorist organizations aimed at Islamizing the Indian subcontinent began to target Pakistan primarily. These groups, like the Pakistan Taliban, began attacking officials, tourists, and mostly Chinese foreign workers, earning Pakistan the label of a serious terrorist state. And severely worsened the economy of Pakistan. Accusations against Afghanistan grew as they seemingly adopted strategies of Pakistan used against India to now target Pakistan.

    Recently, Pakistan’s military revealed that a suicide bombing in March, which killed five Chinese engineers and a Pakistani driver, was orchestrated from neighboring Afghanistan by an Afghan citizen. Four suspects linked to the attack were apprehended. This is only one incident that grabs headlines of newspapers, due to the deaths of Chinese nationals, but there are a lot of similar incidents reported. The Pakistani Taliban, with sanctuaries in Afghanistan, intensified attacks within Pakistan since January, resulting in the deaths of 62 security forces. Evidence strongly implicates their involvement in the escalating violence. Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, witnessed numerous militant attacks in recent years, including a recent suicide blast targeting a van carrying five Japanese workers. The Pakistani Taliban, although distinct from but closely aligned with the Afghan Taliban, bore responsibility for such attacks. Consequently, animosity toward Afghans in Pakistan has surged. Nearly 563,639 Afghan migrants returned to Afghanistan following Islamabad’s crackdown on illegal migration, drawing criticism from international and domestic human rights groups.

    Pakistan and Afghanistan, as part of the Indian kingdoms, historically maintained a good relationship. There was a time when discussions leaned toward uniting Pakistan and Afghanistan to form a strong Islamic country in the Indian subcontinent. Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, a seasoned diplomat who held the position of Pakistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, recalled significant efforts made at the governmental level to establish an Pakistan-Afghanistan Confederation. According to Kasuri, the United States also endorsed this concept. President Zia-ul-Haq expanded on the notion of a Pakistan-Afghanistan Confederation, envisioning unrestricted movement for both Pakistanis and Afghans without the need for passports.. General Akhtar Abdur Rahman, considered Zia’s right-hand man and the Director-General of the ISI, himself a Pashtun, shared Zia’s vision of a post-Soviet “Islamic Confederation” comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kashmir, and even the states of Soviet Central Asia. Despite its abandonment, Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan remained warm. The Taliban received significant financial and logistical support from Pakistan, facilitated by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, which provided funding, training, and weaponry. After the Taliban’s removal in 2001, many found refuge in Pakistan. However, following the Taliban’s return to Afghanistan in 2021, the situation changed drastically. There is now a considerable amount of anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan, while negative feelings toward Afghan refugees are widespread in Pakistan. Issues such as calls for Pashtun land in Pakistan, the refugee crisis, and terrorism have strained the relationship to its lowest point.

    Foreign relationships are essential in modern times, as they create more opportunities for every state. Building relationships with neighbors is particularly crucial. However, Pakistan currently lacks both. Its relationship with Afghanistan is in a volatile state, and any further developments will likely exacerbate the situation. Both the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, though they are Islamic, their views, directions, and agendas differ. Pakistan’s new government favors the military and the West but does not support Islamic extremism like the Taliban’s Afghanistan. The Taliban government, on the other hand, will strive to benefit from Pashtun support by claiming Pashtun areas. Consequently, the Western-oriented Pakistani government may soon clash with the Taliban government, and as a result, the chances of improving relationships are diminishing.

  • Impact of Biden’s Xenophobia Comment on Asian Politics

    Impact of Biden’s Xenophobia Comment on Asian Politics

    The United States Presidential race is heating up. President Joe Biden, appearing aged and sluggish, intends to seek another term for the presidential role. The Democrat, known for his pro-migration stance, consistently supports and welcomes immigrants. Biden’s recent comment favoring the country’s migration policy, in comparison with Asia, is emerging as a controversial topic in the political sphere. At last week’s event to raise funds for his 2024 re-election campaign, Biden remarked that their welcoming stance towards immigrants was a contributing factor to their growth of the economy. He proceeded with the economic struggles of China, Japan, Russia, and India, attributing them to their xenophobic reluctance to accept immigrants. Biden underscored the strength immigrants bring to a nation, but with negative comments on rivals China and Russia, and interestingly towards Japan and India. Such a seemingly casual remark from a seasoned politician has the potential to impact foreign relationships badly.

    Biden’s comments against Asian countries’ xenophobia, were only meant to target Trump’s policies, but they made news in the Asian political landscape. Despite Russia, China, and India being multi-ethnic countries historically welcoming foreigners, their immigration policies do not resemble those of the United States or Western countries today. These countries’ stringent immigration laws and high population numbers coupled with a low job market, make them unattractive destinations for migration. These countries have significant multi-ethnic cities, such as Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Moscow, but small cities and villages usually don’t have that multi ethnic color. Though these countries’ populations and religions are generally open to foreigners, their politicians often run campaigns against immigrants. The stringent regulations are directly linked with politics. The countries are notorious for campaigns against the US, and which is often referred to as Xenophobia. But the comments against these countries by Biden, used by politicians in these countries, are being used to further escalate anti-American sentiments. However, mentioning Japan in the comment, a staunch ally of the United States, adds an intriguing dimension to the discussion.

    Japan is more notorious for xenophobia than other countries in Biden’s comment, and historically, this trait has been visible in Japanese society. The nation, which prides itself on its homogeneity, has long been hesitant about immigration. However, its falling birth rate and rapidly aging population point to an acute labor shortage in the coming decades. Many experts believe that Japan’s lagging economy is a result of its strict regulations on immigration. In the case of Japan, Biden’s comment is actually true. However, Making a negative comment on Japan alongside comments about enemy nations is a blow for Japan. Japan has been described as “Regrettable”, the top government spokesperson said on Tuesday. Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, Yoshimasa Hayashi informed at a scheduled regular news conference that representations had been lodged with the United States. These representations indicated that the comment was not based on the correct understanding of Japan’s migration policy and was regrettable. Japan’s ties with its security ally, the United States, remain solid. Nevertheless, this type of comment will definitely affect people’s mood.

    Only a few weeks before, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Washington for a summit with Biden and unveiled plans for military cooperation and projects ranging from missiles to moon landings to strengthen ties with an eye toward countering China and Russia. At this time, mentioning Japan was an unnecessary move by Biden. At Least it doesn’t need  to be criticized along with the enemy states. China and Russia already have strained connections with America. Regarding India, they were moved towards the direction of the U.S. during Trump. But, Biden’s comment has already made headlines in India, and it could worsen the relationship. This is certainly a blunder by Biden at a time when strong alliances with Japan and India are needed to counter the growing influence of China and Russia in the continent. While Trump was accused by Biden of damaging foreign relations, Biden’s actions may be causing even more harm to the United States’ foreign relationships.