Author: Caracal

  • Xi Jinping’s Euro Trip: A Political Analysis

    Xi Jinping’s Euro Trip: A Political Analysis

    Chinese President Xi Jinping is on an important visit to Europe. Xi will engage in extensive discussions with European leaders, as Europe is actively seeking a truce in Ukraine and, in return, China is expected to reduce tariffs on Chinese products. The Chinese President’s visit marks the first time since 2019, with five eventful years having passed since then. The visit, just before the European election, is gaining importance as a trade war continues between China and Europe. Xi’s trip includes stops in France, the heart of Europe; Hungary, China’s closest ally in Europe; and Serbia, considered the unwanted child of Europe. Despite signs of growth in the Chinese economy, the ongoing disputes with their second-biggest trading partner, the European Union, are causing huge losses for China, prompting an emphasis on more trade agreements at the meetings. It is expected that the meetings will also be influenced by Russia’s demands.

    Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, and Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, will meet with the President of China in Paris. Von der Leyen has expressed the European Union’s continuous dissatisfaction with China, citing the latter’s significant manufacturing subsidies. She denounced China for its unfair trade policies and the unacceptably distorted markets brought forth by these substantial subsidies. Such actions might cause Europe to become less industrialized and result in a large loss of jobs, especially in the German auto sector.  Last September, the EU commenced an investigation to consider imposing punitive tariffs. The aim is to protect EU producers from the influx of cheaper Chinese Electric Vehicle (EV) imports, which benefit from state subsidies. This investigation, part of a series initiated by Brussels, covers various supplies to Europe, including medical devices and wind turbines. These products are being sold at half the cost of those made in Europe. The European Commission’s trade chief hinted that tariffs on Chinese EVs could be imposed by June, following an investigation into state support for electric car manufacturing in China. The European Union expresses concerns about the possible circumvention of sanctions against Russia by Chinese enterprises engaging in trade with their neighbor. However, China argues that the trade investigations are driven by political motives and that the consumer would be the lone casualty of a tariff war.

    Regarding the war in Ukraine, Xi acknowledged the impact it has had on the people of Europe, emphasizing that China is not directly involved in the conflict but is actively pursuing a peaceful resolution. One of Europe’s long-standing requests of China, particularly from Macron, has been to exert pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war. However, after two years, Europeans have come to realize that this is unlikely to happen, especially considering Russia’s support from China and its robust economy. Despite this, China has prioritized its stance on Taiwan, appreciating Macron’s independent position on the matter. During Macron’s visit to China last year, he emphasized France’s independent stance on Taiwan, which China respects. This stance might explain why Xi chose France over Germany for his visit. Macron will likely attempt to dissuade Xi from retaliating over the EV investigation, possibly by discussing import duties on French cognac and agricultural goods. France also aims to advance discussions on opening the Chinese market to its agricultural exports and resolving issues related to intellectual property rights in the French cosmetic industry. Additionally, during Xi’s visit, China may announce an order for approximately 50 Airbus aircraft.

    China cannot afford increasing restrictions in the European market, especially considering the potential tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs), which would pose significant challenges for Beijing. According to Rhodium Group, EU imports of EVs from China reached $11.5 billion last year. Thus, China is aiming to mitigate tensions with its visit to Europe. In addition to visiting France, Xi will also travel to Serbia and Hungary during his Euro Trip. China has proposed deepening law enforcement ties with Hungary, expanding their relationship beyond the economic sphere to include a security cooperation agreement, raising concerns in other EU countries. Hungary already serves as Huawei’s largest base outside China, and it will soon host carmaker BYD’s first European factory. Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary, has consistently supported China in international forums and opposed EU motions critical of China on human rights issues. The trip also includes Serbia, a state in Europe known for its favorable stance towards Russia and China. Efforts will be made to further strengthen the China-Serbia relationship. While the outcome of the trip remains unclear as both parties focus on their interests, Xi’s visit will contribute to the European Parliament election. 

  • Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Approach to Gaza Challenges

    Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Approach to Gaza Challenges

    Following Israel, Saudi Arabia stands as the United States’ foremost ally in the Middle East. The connection between the kingdom and Washington is robust and intimate, with both entities walking hand in hand towards shared goals. However, Saudi Arabia, the land of Mohammed, the site of Mecca and Medina, a country that still upholds strict Sharia law and one of the largest funders of Islamist organizations always says about a commitment to Palestine. The question arises: How long can they continue to turn their face against their fellow Muslim brothers in Gaza? The issue in Palestine has never been solely between Palestine and Israel, two countries, but has always been perceived as a conflict between Muslims and Jews, thus garnering global attention. Saudi Arabia, considering itself as the leader of Muslims, has faced significant criticism for its inaction regarding Palestine. However, recent developments suggest that Saudi Arabia is strategically moving to gain more benefits from the United States by staying with them in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

    Saudi Arabia still doesn’t have a formal relationship with Israel, even though the United States is the primary ally of both Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia cooperated with the Arab League against Israel in the initial years of the Arab-Israeli conflicts. However, they played only minor roles in the series of wars. Even though Hamas and Palestine maintain stronger ties to Saudi Arabia’s rivals, Iran and Qatar, Saudi Arabia did not try to publicly align with Israel, not even during the Trump administration when Saudi Arabia’s allies like the UAE and Bahrain established formal ties with Israel. However, business between them gained momentum as Saudi Arabia’s allies established diplomatic relations with Israel. But all the progress was lost when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th of last year. The Hamas attack, Israel’s retaliation, and perceived poor administration from the US under Biden have brought the Israel-Saudi Arabia relationship to a standstill. Some even doubt if the Hamas attack on Israel was orchestrated by Iran and Russia to halt Israel-Saudi Arabia talks. If an axis develops among the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, other players will be thrown out of the scenario. However, now there is widespread anger among the Muslim population against Israel, including in Saudi Arabia. Due to strict laws, protests are unlikely, yet criticism is high as the Saudi government hasn’t intervened. Meanwhile, Iran and Turkey are using the situation to assert their roles as advocates for Islam and leaders of the Muslim world.

    Saudi Arabia is actually strategically maneuvering its position. The kingdom is presently focused on diminishing its reliance on Israel while leveraging the circumstances to secure more favorable terms with the United States. Despite encountering criticism from certain segments of the Muslim world, Saudi Arabia perceives this strategy as advantageous. With no ceasefire in Gaza and strong opposition from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government to a Palestinian state, the Saudis are now pushing for a more streamlined alternative. Which is excluding Israel from the deals with the United States. This alternative involves bilateral defense pacts, US assistance in developing Saudi Arabia’s civil nuclear energy sector, and significant collaboration in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. Under Riyadh’s proposal, these agreements would not require Israel’s approval. The United States is cautious about involving Israel at this stage, fearing that Saudi Arabia might pivot towards alignment with China or Russia, which could undermine US dominance in the region and have significant economic repercussions. While the exclusion of Israel from these agreements will impact Israel, it is expected that Israeli businesses will shift to the US. A formal offer would be extended to Israel, proposing Saudi normalization, a significant objective in Israeli foreign policy, in exchange for definitive steps towards establishing a Palestinian state encompassing Gaza and the West Bank. The US aimed for this offer to become a focal point in Israeli politics, particularly during elections following the potential collapse of the Netanyahu government. 

    Saudi Arabia, one of the powerhouse of the Middle East,  ranks as the world’s second-largest oil producer after the United States and the second-largest GDP in the Middle East, trailing only Turkey. They are in an effort to transition from strict Islamic laws to a more economy-oriented perspective involving substantial investments in media, tourism, and sports. Furthermore, they aspire to host prestigious global events such as the FIFA World Cup and Olympics on their soil, underscoring their prioritizations. The support of the United States will ensure that Saudi Arabia can achieve this endeavor. However, a less assertive stance on the Gaza situation has the potential to tarnish Saudi Arabia’s reputation as the leader of Islamic states. On the other hand, it aids the United States in intensifying efforts to bolster bilateral trade, enhance security partnerships, and promote technological advancements, including the establishment of a uranium processing plant. Concerns regarding the kingdom’s human rights record and women’s rights issues, which no longer seem to trouble the United States. Instead, they aim to maintain a close alliance with Saudi Arabia, And that Saudi Arabia is keenly aware of.

  • What Led Turkey to Suspend Trade with Israel?

    What Led Turkey to Suspend Trade with Israel?

    The encampment protests for Gaza are making huge waves around the globe. Western nations like the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia are witnessing the protests on a large scale, and countries like Colombia are openly starting to criticize Israel. On this occasion, there was criticism that many protests are not visible from Muslim countries, especially from the Middle East. However, now Turkey, which claims Ottoman hereditary so proudly under the Islamist politician Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is taking strong actions against Israel by halting all trades with Israel and accusing it of humanitarian tragedy in Gaza. Turkey’s decision is a huge and brave step, considering Turkey had an amicable relationship with Israel and is a NATO member and ally of the United States. Historically, Turkey recognized Israel when they announced independence, while many Muslim countries were reluctant to do so. The fruitful relationship started to sour during the Erdogan regime and was taken to its lowest level by Turkey’s imposition of a trade embargo, overthrowing trade agreements, and foreign relations in the area.

    Turkey’s trade ministry announced late on Thursday that export and import transactions related to Israel have been stopped, covering all products. The ministry emphasized that these measures would be strictly and decisively implemented until the Israeli government ensures an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Turkey’s trade ministry had previously announced restrictions on exports to Israel in early April, halting the export of iron and steel products and construction equipment. The decision has a huge economic impact because as of 2023, the two countries had a trade volume of $6.8 billion. This trade embargo by Turkey will also cause harm to the Turkish economy, as Turkey’s exports mostly go to western countries with close ties to Israel, and Israel itself is a top importer of Turkish goods. And as expected, Israel drew strong criticism of Turkey’s decision. Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, accused Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of acting like a “Dictator” in response to the reported restrictions. This dispute is likely to deepen tensions between the two former close allies. Katz accused Erdoğan of “Violating agreements by obstructing ports for Israeli imports and exports” alleging that he disregards the interests of Turkish citizens and businessmen, and ignores international trade agreements. Katz also stated that Israel would attempt to replace any lost products through local production and imports from other countries. Last month, he had criticized Erdoğan for publicizing his latest meeting in Istanbul with the head of Hamas’s politburo, Ismail Haniyeh.

    The reason behind Turkey’s decision, or Erdogan’s decision, is political. Turkey knows this action could sour relationships with Israel and, consequently, the West. However, the West will not take any action against Turkey now. There are several reasons for this. There is global sentiment against civilian killings in Gaza, which is also present in the West. Following the killings of aid workers and university protests, Western media are not actively supporting Israel anymore; they are maintaining a neutral stance instead of siding against Hamas, the terrorist organization responsible for brutal killings in Israel and taking hostages. This shift in Western mindset is providing Erdogan with a sense of security, as there is support for Turkey’s decision among Western populations. It’s evident that there is significant sentiment among Muslims worldwide in support of fellow Muslims in Palestine, and there is also resentment toward wealthy Gulf countries that have not taken significant steps to support Palestine, despite their close ties with Israel and the US. Erdogan can leverage this sentiment to portray himself as a true Ottoman leader, as he desires. As a seasoned politician, Erdogan can navigate this sentiment to push his agenda of Islamism In Turkey, especially as the country’s opposition makes progress and wins elections. He sees an opportunity and frames it well, presenting it at the opportune moment. So, this action will definitely impact Turkish domestic politics where Erdogan faces challenges.

    Israel’s revenge mission for the deaths of 1,136 Israeli citizens on October 7th and the taking of about 250 people hostage shows no signs of stopping nearby. The Israeli military is currently in Gaza and has bombarded the territory, resulting in the deaths of more than 34,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. This situation has provided many politicians with leverage. Netanyahu doesn’t need to worry about protests against him, Iran has taken advantage by increasing calls for reform after Mahsini’s death, and European right-wing politicians have found an opportunity to showcase the increased Muslim population in Europe. Additionally, Turkey is now seeking an opportunity to quell discontent against Erdogan and gain an advantage over the opposition by increasing solidarity with Palestinian Muslims. So, everyone benefits except for the common people who lose their lives and property. Turkey’s decision to impose a trade embargo will not have any impact on Israel or the new world order; however, it is a win for Turkey and Erdogan.

  • How Does India-China Tension Benefit Nepal?

    How Does India-China Tension Benefit Nepal?

    Geopolitical tensions between superpowers always cause damage to their smaller neighbors. In the world wars and during the cold war era, the small neighbors of superpowers suffered greatly; often, they were dragged in without any direct interest in the conflicts. The domestic politics of these countries are always influenced by their neighbors. Any attempt to change puppet governments often leads to severe punishments for the people. While there are many adverse effects of this power struggle, there are also some benefits to consider. We can see this in the flow of funds from super powers to strategically located poor countries. For example, the Maldives is receiving a large sum of money from China, Taiwan is receiving considerable aid from the United States, and some countries are benefiting from both sides due to their strategic location. Nepal, the landlocked Himalayan country sandwiched between the heavyweights of India and China, is one such country. The country, home to Mount Everest, is dragged into India-China tensions, and these countries are investing in infrastructure projects, politicians, and even cultural organizations.

    Nepal has seen a significant influx of foreign investment in recent years. Most recently, during a two-day investment summit in Kathmandu, which concluded on Monday, representatives from India and China actively announced investments seeking to forge closer ties with Nepal and enhance their countries’ economic presence in South Asia. At the summit, potential investors pledged to inject up to US$68.3 million into the country. It is huge for a politically unstable country. Nepal is currently undergoing a transition from a centralized monarchy to a federal democratic republic under its 2015’s Constitution. Additionally, it aims to shift from reliance on international aid towards becoming a hub for global investments. Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal emphasizes that liberal economic policies lay the foundation for a vibrant and investor-friendly business environment. Although India’s and China’s interests were evident in the resulting deals announced.

    Delegates from India and China constituted the largest contingent among the 2,400 representatives from various countries attending the summit. While India dispatched around 150 participants, China’s delegation was twice as large. During the summit’s opening on Sunday, Beijing announced the exemption of visa fees for Nepali travelers starting May 1. This initiative coincides with the commencement of commercial flights from two international airports in Nepali cities Pokhara and Lumbini. Previously, the Himalayan route to China was inaccessible to Nepalis due to the government’s support for Tibetans, and the open border between India and Nepal caused concerns for China. However, recent developments suggest cooperation between Nepal and China to establish more routes through these challenging terrains. Progress is evident in air and road links, as well as border checkpoints. Feasibility studies for cross-border railways and transmission lines are also advancing.

    The airports, funded by China in the hundreds of millions of dollars, have been completed. In contrast, India has been cautious about opening air routes to Nepal, partly due to concerns over these airports’ connection to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. While additional projects are planned, there are concerns that they may further facilitate China’s access not only to Nepal but also directly to India’s northern regions. Despite Nepal’s naturally open border with India, infrastructure development appears to be more pronounced and effective on the Chinese side. Additionally, China’s funding of hydropower projects raises concerns for India. If India-China tensions escalate, the rivers originating in Nepal could become contentious, as they supply water to populous and fertile plains in India. Recognizing the importance of the situation, India is now actively addressing these issues. Piyush Goyal, India’s Federal Minister for Commerce and Industry, emphasized in a speech at the event via video call: “We will continue to expand our trading and business relationship. I urge Indian investors worldwide to invest in Nepal, seize the opportunity, and contribute to Nepal’s emerging development”.

    The impoverished South Asian country, boasting some of the world’s largest mountain peaks, holds potential across various sectors but has unfortunately been overlooked by investors. However, the current India-China tensions are instilling hope. The country’s hydro power generation sector, already one of its biggest exports and poised for further expansion, is expected to benefit from these investments. Presently, Nepal generates 3,200MW of hydropower, with numerous large-scale projects totaling 5,568MW in the pipeline. While India heavily invests in Nepal’s hydropower initiatives, China aims to establish a foothold in the sector. Infrastructure development from both ends will also improve the tourism sector. Hindu and Buddhist pilgrimages to Nepal already promise significant economic benefits for the tourism industry. As railroads are completed, Nepal expects an influx of Chinese tourists too. Hence, the India-China tensions offer hope for Nepal, recognizing that its transition from a low-income to a middle-income nation hinges on support from India and China.

  • How Does The COVID-19 Vaccination Affect Indian Politics Anew?

    How Does The COVID-19 Vaccination Affect Indian Politics Anew?

    In a country with a significant conservative and religious population, the world’s largest and most successful COVID-19 vaccination drive was conducted. Despite doubts within religious communities about the unknown liquid being injected as a population control measure, and within the scientific community regarding the vaccine’s insufficient testing, nearly 95% of India’s eligible population received vaccinations. This drive was a huge success because people believed in Narendra Modi, who led the campaign. Narendra Modi conducted extensive campaigns, publishing images of himself receiving vaccines and urging everyone to get vaccinated. He touted this massive vaccination drive as one of his biggest achievements and issued certificates for vaccine recipients with his own prominent image on them. In the subsequent state elections, Narendra Modi benefited from the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. However, during the crucial time of the Lok Sabha elections, after only two phases out of seven had been completed, the COVID-19 vaccination drive gained mainstream again, but not in Modi’s favor.

    With the approval of several vaccines in India, the Covishield vaccine, initially developed by Oxford–AstraZeneca and manufactured under license by the Serum Institute of India, emerged as the preferred choice for most individuals. At a time when the world was gripped by fear of the deadly COVID-19 virus, the Serum Institute stepped up production, delivering a significant number of vaccine doses. Modi faced pressure from international media and opposition parties, who criticized the Indian government for inaccurate death counts. Consequently, when the WHO authorized the vaccine, the Modi government swiftly introduced it to the people, leading to a massive COVID-19 vaccination drive that astounded the world. Modi consistently stressed the significance of vaccinations and initiated programs to encourage people to participate in the COVID-19 vaccination drive. Modi and the managing director of the Pune Serum Institute, Cyrus Poonawalla, became stars and sensations in Indian newspapers. Modi’s image was displayed on certificates, vaccination centers, and wherever possible. Modi further condemned political parties and leaders who expressed doubts about vaccines, including his strong criticism of the Samajwadi Party and its leader Akhilesh Yadav, who raised concerns about large-scale vaccination drives without thoroughly examining potential side effects. The principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress, faced humiliation as Modi vaccinated the majority of the population, dismissing any reservations they voiced. Those who questioned the vaccine were branded as anti-national. In the eyes of the Indian populace, Modi emerged as a superhero, revered as the savior who safeguarded them from the deadly Coronavirus.

    But as the COVID virus receded from the news headlines, people started to question the side effects of the virus. They began to doubt the increased cases of heart attacks and brain damage, even among youths. Conspiracy theories emerged, while the government and government-linked medical associations denied them all. However, during a crucial time, on the occasion of the General election in which Modi sought a continuous third term, the situation took a turn. As the vaccine developer, AstraZeneca admitted in a British court that the vaccine had some side effects that could cause hemorrhage in rare cases, prompting almost 52 people to join a petition in the British court. The opposition parties and social media erupted in rage against Modi, dealing a setback to his aspirations for a third term as Prime Minister. The Indian National Congress hit Narendra Modi hard because the government had not addressed the issue yet, despite having information about the side effects. The government failed to take actions to study and address the issue. The Samajwadi Party, which had questioned vaccines during the vaccination drive, was now mocking Modi and the BJP. Cyberspace attacked Modi more furiously, with Twitter hashtags like #ArrestModi trending, and many people expressing concerns. This is likely to influence Indian voters, who are highly emotional. Interestingly, neither Modi nor the government has made any statements in response, They are neglecting it  and viewing it as an attempt to alter the election scenario.

    The doubts surrounding the COVID virus, such as its origin, original impact, and whether it is a biological weapon, as well as concerns about vaccines, remain entrenched in conspiracy theories. In India, the COVID-19 vaccine has become a political tool, with numerous accusations directed at both the vaccine and its manufacturer, the Serum Institute. The Institute is accused of providing funds to the BJP through the election bond scheme, highlighting systemic corruption issues. However, government supporters affirm that the COVID-19 virus saves lives and provides immunity for people, with side effects being very rare compared to the number of people who have received the vaccines. Despite this, people, especially in cyberspace, continue to share their fears. This is an issue the government must acknowledge and will likely impact future vaccination drives. As petitions are filed in Indian courts, any comments from the court will undoubtedly affect the Indian populace and, consequently, Indian General election.

  • Can Lawrence Wong’s Social Media Skills Secure Gen Z Votes?

    Can Lawrence Wong’s Social Media Skills Secure Gen Z Votes?

    No doubt, social media is the best way to connect with youth, especially Gen Z. They spend more time on social media than on newspapers or television channels, and they don’t believe in conventional media. Therefore, politicians are keen to attract Gen Z voters by using social media. If the content and campaign are entertaining or convincing, people won’t care about the leader’s past or stances. That’s why many political leaders around the world cunningly use social media to attract Gen Z voters. Despite past scandals or policies, Gen Z voters love the performance on social media platforms and dislike conventional media’s propaganda and edits. This trend has been observable for decades in Western countries and is now spreading to Asia as more people use smartphones and the internet. Leaders like Narendra Modi and Prabowo have greatly benefited from their social media campaigns. Even though Singapore, traditionally not involved in social media-driven politics, is catching up as the Deputy Prime Minister and main candidate of the next general election in 2025, Lawrence Wong becomes active in the social media space, sensing the trend in neighboring countries.

    In the upcoming general election in Singapore, a significant portion of the electorate is composed of Gen Z voters, similar to many other Asian nations. Singapore was reaching its “youth peak” in the last general election in 2020, with a large proportion of its demographic pyramid apparently made up of people in their 25s to 35s. Roughly a third of eligible voters were in their 20s and 30s. The youth voters will be high for the next general election too. Analysts believe that Lawrence Wong needs to dominate social media if he wants to win over young voters in the upcoming general election. So, Wong is making significant efforts for this. Wong, who was not strong previously in the social media space, is now creating accounts and posting social media content. Lawrence Wong’s first foray into TikTok in June 2020 was a 51-second video of him in a white collared shirt wishing netizens a happy Mid-Autumn Festival, with barely legible font and no pop track in the background, a typical mistake for every elder social media user, but he understood the mistake as he was punished with lower engagements. Since then, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Wong’s content has undergone a nearly total makeover, featuring smooth transitions and hit pop songs with beats, typically trimmed to no longer than 30 seconds. And it worked well. He appeals more to youth now and gains a TikTok base of 120,000 followers.

    The 51-year-old, slated to become the first prime minister of Singapore born in the post-independence era, is also a figure whose political trajectory has been and will remain closely tied to the ever-evolving landscape of social media. Although some videos may not have resonated as strongly as others featuring him playing the guitar or participating in charity motorcycle rides, experts assert that political leaders must adeptly navigate the digital sphere to avoid being deemed “Cringe” by young voters during elections. Acknowledging this, the People’s Action Party (PAP), currently in power, has spent the last few years attempting to dominate various platforms. Alongside traditional media, the government frequently uses social media to make significant announcements. And now, all the important shifts in office are also declared through social media. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, 72, for example, announced on Monday his decision to hand over the reins to Wong on May 15 through a statement on social media. In Singapore, political officeholders now typically employ this method.

    It’s interesting that Asian leaders are putting more effort into social media campaigns, portraying themselves with super charismatic characters, particularly in their attempts to reach Gen Z voters, and it’s proving effective. The biggest examples are India and Indonesia. On social media, Narendra Modi is cultivating an image of a strong, Hindu, powerful leader capable of embodying the old Hindu emperors from history books. Youth resonate with this image, sharing content with powerful music, urging others to vote for Modi. Similarly, in Indonesia, Gen Z seems uninterested in Prabowo’s shady past, focusing instead on his endearing actions as a grandfather figure portrayed on social media. And it’s working. The “Cute GrandPa” campaign was a superhit. Prabowo has gained a significant number of Gen Z votes. So, how can Wong stand out from this trend? The power of social media influence, combined with effective social media skills, has become a necessity for political leaders.

  • Does The LDP’s Loss In Elections Signal For Kishida’s Future?

    Does The LDP’s Loss In Elections Signal For Kishida’s Future?

    As he assumed office in late 2021, Fumio Kishida, the Prime Minister of Japan and president of the country’s ruling conservative party, the LDP, made promises of a “New Capitalism” and a stronger Japan abroad. He pledged solutions to the country’s demographic crisis and was widely welcomed on international stages as a strong leader from Japan following Shinzo Abe. However, now he finds himself navigating a sea of struggles, with no visible improvement in the economic and social situation, and the LDP experiencing a significant loss in crucial by-elections within their party strongholds. The main opposition party, the CDP, has won three seats formerly held by the LDP. The result is widely interpreted as voter anger and punishment for the LDP’s involvement in a years-long corruption saga. These losses coincide with Kishida’s struggle to rebuild support for his cabinet amidst voter discontent over inflation and the scandal. The defeats may dissuade him from calling a general election prior to the party leadership vote in September, where there’s a risk of him being replaced.

    Over the past two weeks, international media outlets have been celebrating Fumio Kishida for his efforts to foster collaboration among East Asian countries and his advocacy for the US’s global leadership role. Kishida may have found reassurance in the recent suggestion by US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell that he, along with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, should be considered joint recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize for their endeavors to confront their countries’ turbulent historical legacies and present a united front against nuclear-armed North Korea. Additionally, Prime Minister Kishida received acclaim for his speech to the US Congress. His address was met with cheers, marking him as only the second Japanese leader to speak before a joint session of Congress, following in the footsteps of Shinzo Abe. However, after his return to Tokyo following a productive summit with Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister has encountered strong domestic political challenges. The yen’s plummet against the dollar, the persistent cost-of-living crisis, and uncertainties surrounding the funding of policies aimed at tackling Japan’s low birth rate and its most significant military buildup since the end of the war further exacerbate the situation.

    However, the most significant debate arises from a funding scandal, initially disclosed last year, which has emerged as a focal point for public outrage amid increasing doubts regarding Prime Minister Kishida’s capacity to lead the LDP to success in the upcoming lower house elections. Although the election is not scheduled for well over a year, the scandal, involving 85 LDP lawmakers who were discovered to have funneled undisclosed profits from ticket sales for party events into slush funds, has left Kishida with little room to maneuver. The party’s response to the slush fund debacle has consistently failed to convince the public, and there is scant reason to believe that planned reforms would reverse this trend. Efforts to mend the damage inflicted by the funding scandal, along with promises of reforming political funding regulations, have also proven ineffective in mitigating criticism from the media. Despite the punishment of 39 LDP lawmakers, Kishida evaded censure despite evidence indicating that his own faction had similarly underreported ticket sale, highlighting apparent double standards that risk inciting a factional power struggle, potentially leaving him politically wounded as he endeavors to secure his party’s endorsement as LDP president this autumn.

    The defeat in Shimane, along with victories for non-LDP candidates in other by-elections on Sunday, may ignite an early challenge to Kishida’s leadership as the party prepares for presidential elections in September, where the winner is automatically appointed prime minister. Despite generally positive feedback regarding his summit with Joe Biden earlier this month, three April surveys indicated that approval for Kishida’s cabinet fell well below the 30 percent threshold often considered a danger zone for Japanese premiers. Despite its robust economy, the country is experiencing turmoil within its political sphere. Now is a critical moment for Japan to confront these challenges head-on. Once the world’s second-largest economy, Japan risks being surpassed by numerous countries in the upcoming decades, which will undoubtedly impact the current trajectory of the nation. Therefore, these are valuable times for Japanese politicians to take action.

  • How Does US Foreign Aid Package Benefit Taiwan?

    How Does US Foreign Aid Package Benefit Taiwan?

    Taiwan, along with Ukraine and Israel, receives a significant amount of funds and help as part of the US-declared Foreign Aid Package. After much delay and contentious debate, and following calls from Ukraine, the foreign aid bill was signed by United States President Joe Biden last Wednesday. Three countries are  benefiting directly from the bill and receiving significant amounts of money. One is Ukraine, which is engaged in a strong war with Russia and is in high demand for money and weapons. Another country is the conventional ally, Israel, which is in conflict with Hamas and also in need of money and aid from the United States. The third is Taiwan, whose inclusion is interesting because they are not currently at war. However, it needs to be considered that the United States expects more tensions in the region, and is preparing for it.

    The foreign aid package, amounting to $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, contains provisions that have a broad impact on many parts of the Asia-Pacific region. Through the bill, House Republicans allocated $8.1 billion for the Indo-Pacific region, framing it as an effort to counter the People’s Republic of China, which claims Taiwan and the entire South China Sea. Within the foreign aid package, $2 billion is earmarked for the foreign military financing program, benefiting Taiwan and other security partners in the Indo-Pacific, all of whom are deemed crucial in confronting Chinese aggression according to the US. This financing program enables eligible partner nations to procure US defense articles, services, and training. Additionally, $1.9 billion will support defense-related expenses for Taiwan and other regional partners, while $542 million will specifically enhance US military capabilities in the region which will bolster regional deterrence.

    The primary allocation of funding within the bill is directed towards projects within the United States itself. $3.3 billion from the bill is allocated to bolster the domestic submarine-building industry. Of this amount, $1.9 billion is specifically designated for the Columbia-class submarine, the latest class of nuclear-powered submarines for the United States. An additional $200 million is allocated for a Virginia-class submarine as well. The majority of these funds will be invested domestically, benefiting over 16,000 suppliers across all 50 states. The inclusion of submarine funding was a prerequisite for congressional approval of the Aukus deal involving the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia. Its purpose is to ensure that the United States can fulfill Australia’s requirement for Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines without compromising its own capability needs. Therefore, this package will contribute to the US economy and US foreign relationships simultaneously.

    The delay in passing the bill sparked significant criticism against the government both inside and outside the US. A significant outcry arose from Ukraine, which is currently in urgent need of financial assistance. However, it wasn’t easy for the United States; there were protests against spending US taxpayers’ money on Ukraine and war, with arguments advocating for peace talks with Russia. Additionally, Israel being another beneficiary led to further delays, as Israel’s aggressive stance resulted in numerous civilian deaths in Gaza, demanding the US to intervene and halt the conflict. Protests are mounting in the US, with participation from many students, human rights activists, and Islamic communities. Additionally, there are many people who are against funding Taiwan. They fear that increased financial support and weapon systems provided to the Asia-Pacific region will escalate tensions. However, such actions are deemed necessary by the US to stimulate its economy, given the need for government spending and pressure from businesses.

    Taiwan considers the aid package essential for its defense and expresses concerns about China’s potential future aggression. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen applauded the foreign aid package. According to Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, the aid gravely breaches  US obligations to China and sends the wrong message to separatists seeking Taiwan’s independence. China is concerned about this development since the US is expected to gain more influence in the region as a result of the Foreign Aid Package for Taiwan, which would draw other nations closer to the US. The political environment in Asia Pacific will change as a result of these measures. China, which considers Taiwan its own territory, has consistently urged a halt to arms supplies, while the United States continues to be Taiwan’s most significant international supporter and arms supplier despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties. Thus, it is certain that the foreign aid package will impact the balance of power in the area.

  • What is Driving the Increase of Gaza Protests in Western Countries?

    What is Driving the Increase of Gaza Protests in Western Countries?

    Global Muslim solidarity has kept Palestine alive, or Palestine has kept alive global Muslim solidarity. Sunnis, Shias, and Mujahideen all share common thoughts for Palestine. Deep sentiments for Palestine have been created by Muslim writers. Muslim countries have joined together, even launching attacks for Palestine. Muslim journalists have penned articles in various languages, English, French, German, Hindi, to garner support for protests for Gaza. Muslim students have organized massive rallies in Dhaka, Karachi, Mumbai, Baghdad, and many other places, all orchestrated like a finely conducted concert for Palestine and people, who are suffering there. All of this has presented global support for Palestine, despite Israel and the United States supporters leading most influential institutions and newspapers. However, it’s interesting to note that this harmony for Palestine is not as evident after the recent attack in Gaza. Muslim countries are issuing statements but not taking significant actions against Israel. Palestine-related articles featuring images of suffering people are not prevalent in Eastern newspapers, even though casualties are high. Furthermore, students in Pakistan, India, and Arab countries are not as active on the streets for Palestine. Meanwhile, protests for Gaza are intensifying on the US campuses and in the streets of European cities. It’s interesting,  There are more big protests in London than in Karachi.

    Large-scale protests for Gaza are ongoing in reputable US universities like Columbia University and on major European streets, as well as in Australia, amid police arrests and clashes with other groups in an unprecedented manner. Despite these countries alignment with Israel and the continued support of popular politicians for Israel, many Muslim communities, human rights supporters, sympathizers, and left-leaning individuals are joining together to create large-scale protests in Western countries to oppose war and uphold humanity. This movement is unprecedented in scale. Some universities have been forced to cancel their graduation ceremonies, while others have witnessed entire buildings being occupied by protesting students. Police intervention has exacerbated the situation. Interestingly, in the Middle East and South Asia, traditional centers for protests remain relatively calm. The Gulf states do not support democratic protests and enforce strict laws against them, while Arab republics like Iraq and Egypt have tight controls due to links with extremist radicals among protestors. In populous Muslim countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh in South Asia, there is fear that protests for Gaza could become targets for looming terrorist organizations in the country. Additionally, in India, traditionally a home for intellectual Muslims, the government under Narendra Modi is taking a hardline stance against protests for Gaza and Palestine.

    So, the looming protests in Western nations are occurring only because they can be conducted safely and publicly there. A large number of people, especially students and intellectuals, have migrated to these countries from Arab states and South Asia. They can express their anger and sympathy for Israel’s actions against Palestinian Muslims through protests for Gaza. Moreover, they will receive support from human rights and left-wing groups, which is not as readily available in Arab and South Asian countries. Conducting rallies in Pakistani and Bangladeshi cities will garner less news value. However, many critics argue that the mounting protests will have a reverse effect in Western countries. Social media is already displaying animosity towards Islamist people who have migrated to the West. These protests will likely exacerbate such animosity, with right-wing politicians exploiting it to cast doubt on and wonder about the large-scale protests led by Muslim intellectuals in support of Gaza. Consequently, there is a fear that mounting protests for Gaza will fuel racism and anti-Islamic sentiments.

    The shift of “Protests for Gaza” from east to west is a clear indication of recent migration patterns as well. Eastern countries tend to restrict free speech or expression for Muslims, prompting known Muslim intellectuals and individuals to migrate to the West, where they can utilize freedom of speech to advocate for Muslims. This trend is evident, for example, in India, which was once a hub of protests for Gaza but has significantly changed in the last 10 years under the Hindu nationalist government of Narendra Modi, which favors Israel and takes stringent actions against Palestine protests. Muslim intellectuals from such countries have migrated to the West, where they have the freedom to protest. This trend is also visible in Pakistan and Arab countries. Therefore, these shifts in the locations of protests for Gaza not only signify the emergence of voices for the suffering people in Gaza but also highlight changes in global politics.

  • How Are Trade Barrier Reforms Progressing In Central Asian States?

    How Are Trade Barrier Reforms Progressing In Central Asian States?

    The economy of the United States is its greatest asset. Instead of relying solely on its military, it utilizes the hegemony of the dollar and its economic might to forge partnerships with other countries. The United States’ financial contributions led to a West-leaning, communist-averse Europe after World War II. Similarly, it spurred the resurgence of East Asia by injecting capital and ensuring the market. The United States’ economic interests have played a significant role in mitigating full-scale conflicts in the Middle East. This strategy, centered on leveraging financial resources and markets to build alliances, is now expanding to encompass Central Asia. Central Asia, once hindered by the dominant influence of the Soviet Union and Russia, is now becoming more accessible to the United States. The US initiative in the region seeks to foster a market conducive to the prosperity of Central Asian states and to attract American investment, thereby strengthening ties with the United States. 

    Central Asian states have long been characterized by trade barriers, bureaucratic hurdles, and regulatory complexities, greatly impeding economic progress. However, steps are currently being taken to tackle these challenges, representing a significant advancement towards creating a unified regional market similar to the streamlined documentation and policy frameworks found in Europe. Promoting the establishment of such a unified Central Asian market and facilitating smooth trade and service flow are fundamental elements of a regional economic strategy championed by the United States, known as the B5+1 initiative. Amidst a flurry of diplomatic engagements in mid-April, Central Asian leaders are actively exploring the potential of the B5+1 initiative. Launched in March, the B5+1 initiative assigns the five Central Asian nations, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, with the responsibility of spearheading efforts to promote regional free trade and enhance export opportunities.

    In recent times, geopolitical analysts have turned their attention to the growing interactions among Central Asian countries, spurred by the diminishing influence of Russia and the stagnating economic growth of  China . Notably, a multitude of discussions and agreements have unfolded in the region, often without the presence of Russia. A significant event occurred on April 18, when Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon signed 28 interstate agreements spanning political, economic, and social realms. Noteworthy among these were two agreements aimed at bolstering trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, with a focus on simplifying customs procedures at border checkpoints and safeguarding industrial property rights. Preceding Mirziyoyev’s visit, a joint investment forum in Dushanbe drew around 600 officials and business leaders from both nations. They expressed keen interest in collaborative ventures, particularly within the mining and renewable energy sectors, and sought to expand trade. Initiatives such as establishing a free trade zone at the Oybek-Fotekhobod border crossing and developing a logistics hub at Andarkhan were emphasized. Additionally, plans were unveiled to streamline permit requirements for freight-carrying trucks crossing the Tajik-Uzbek border. Despite bilateral trade reaching $505 million in 2023, officials aspire to elevate it to $2 billion in the near future. This ambition was echoed by Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during his agreements signing with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, underscoring the significance of facilitating cross-border movement and enhancing the exchange of manufactured goods. Subsequent to discussions with Japarov, Tokayev engaged in talks with Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev, likely focusing on regional trade dynamics. While details of these discussions were scarce, it was apparent that bilateral relations and regional cooperation were prioritized. However, challenges persist, notably between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, where trade turnover declined significantly due to ongoing border disputes and unmarked border areas. Additionally, Turkmenistan poses a significant obstacle to efforts aimed at promoting connectivity, with issues such as a severe shortage of qualified personnel hindering international cooperation within contractual frameworks. Nonetheless, Ashgabat’s interest in expanding regional trade appears substantial, as evidenced by the sizable delegation it dispatched to the inaugural B5+1 conference in Almaty.

    Recent diplomatic initiatives seem to have drawn the Kremlin’s attention, as it expresses concern that increased trade facilitation in Central Asia could lead to the expansion of commercial networks that bypass Russia. The ongoing developments aimed at streamlining trade processes in Central Asia appear to unsettle Moscow.  Nevertheless, landlocked countries with tough terrain require substantial investments in infrastructure to connect with the global economy. They traditionally rely on Russia, and China made a lot of road and rail networks under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is unlikely that Russia, China, and Iran will cooperate with the trade union in this context. So the US could potentially influence countries such as Pakistan and the Southern Caucasus countries, which have aligned with European interests. These will lead to huge shifts in the entire asia geopolitical landscape. So the Impact of B5+1 will grow beyond Central Asia.