Author: Caracal

  • Is Iran’s Attack On Israel A Well-Staged Political Drama?

    Is Iran’s Attack On Israel A Well-Staged Political Drama?

    Iran wants to do anything to secure its image. They were humiliated by the attack conducted by Israel on their consulate in Syria. An attack on their embassy is a big humiliation and a violation of international laws, in which Israel doesn’t have an interest. The Iranian government said they will seek vengeance. Though no country in the Middle East is ready or capable of fighting with Israel, Iran knows it. But Iran did it. They flew almost 300 drones and missiles to Israel on April 14th. Iran’s attack on Israel was obstructed by the US, UK, and Israel. But the following events make Iran’s attacks dubious as well-planned political drama. There is news coming that the attack was carried out after informing neighboring countries and Turkey. Iran said they are stopping further attacks after, and they said they balanced the humiliation they got from the consulate attack. For Israel, they gained something to present to the world after experiencing the huge negative impact of the continuing attack on Gaza. For the US and UK, they can say they protected Israel, which is important for the elections coming in these countries. So Iran’s attack on Israel is a win for all.

    Since the formation of Modern Israel, tensions have existed between Israel and its Muslim neighbors, leading to a lot of wars. Though there was a brief period of peace in the last decade, which led to relations between Israel and prominent Arab countries reaching an all-time high. Credit for this goes to Donald Trump, who worked out these relationships. However, the Hamas attack on October 7th turned all scenarios upside down. When Israeli people’s anger flared up due to failures in governance and safety, as well as Hamas’ capture of Israeli citizens as hostages, Israel started an attack on Gaza. When this attack on Gaza continues after several months, it seems that the situation in the Middle East is becoming less volatile, which is interesting, considering the suffering of people in Gaza. Hamas leaders may find refuge in Qatar, and Hezbollah is reluctant to intervene. Neighboring countries are not ready to participate, and Islamic leaders like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are not overly interested in these issues. However, attacking a consulate and killing officials severely damaged Israel’s reputation, and the killing of aid workers probably set Israel back. On this occasion, Iran’s drone missiles were flown to Israel. Everyone, including the US, was aware of Iran’s attack on Israel. Iran actually seized the opportunity to make a counter-attack on Israel, becoming a Muslim country still capable of fighting against Israel. Israel can use this to show the world that there is a threat to them. Though Israel easing restrictions and Iran stating they will not fight further, all seems settled.

    While Israel’s top general, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, provided the clearest confirmation yet since the attack that Israel would retaliate, the likelihood of a full-scale war appears to be diminishing. There will be targeted attacks from Israel to Iran or its allies. As two countries, Israel and Iran do not share a land border, but Iran’s closest allies, Syria and Lebanon, are neighbors of Israel. However, attacking these neighbors is not a good idea for Israel now. There is doubt that the US or UK will not stand with this idea, and there is discontent against Netanyahu in Israel, a prolonged war will only escalate this. Attacking Syria will draw Russia and the US directly into the warfare, leading to a devastating situation. Iran is sure that airstrikes against Israel will not work out; they are well prepared for it. Moreover, Iraq will not always cooperate with Iran to use their sky as a pathway for missiles. Attacking through the sea is almost impossible, but they can intercept Israel-linked ships from the Persian shore or Arabian sea with the help of Houthis. Iran is already holding an Israel-linked ship for violating the rules.

    The war on social media and targeted killings will continue. Israel, the US, and the UK will support the campaign against Iran, while Iran will aid terrorist organizations fighting against Israel. This pattern is likely to persist, as per analysis of a new world order. In modern times, starting a war is easy, but ending it is incredibly difficult. A possible deadlock and a perpetual war will be the result of modern war. The Ukraine war serves as a good example of this. Russia cannot progress further, even though they have been severely impacted economically and politically, despite their experience in warfare and possession of high artillery. Economic setbacks are not tolerable in modern politics, which are highly intertwined with business interests. Therefore, the likelihood of further escalating tensions into a full-scale war between Israel and Iran is low.Yet, the drama, Iran’s attack on Israel was well-staged and appealing.

  • North Korea and China Conduct High-Level Meetings with High Regard

    North Korea and China Conduct High-Level Meetings with High Regard

    The poor living conditions and the communist regime define North Korea. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or North Korea, is a country that is frequently in the news because of its strange totalitarian government, sophisticated arsenal of weapons, and intense rivalry with the US, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, which is its neighbor. The country, almost isolated from the world to preserve its authoritarian rule, still exists with only close ties to Russia and China. Actually, It is Russia and China that sustain North Korea as a country. Everything from basic needs to military technology is obtained through these countries. Therefore, more than their celebrated missiles, North Korea relies on its relationship with these countries. North Korea appears to be the child constantly yearning to be with its parents, while Russia and China resemble a couple locked in a struggle against a common enemy, their bond tightly intertwined.

    There are significant developments in world politics now, especially in Asian politics. We are witnessing a weaker Russia, and China is experiencing an economic slowdown, resulting in a diminishing global superpower aspiration. Tensions are high between the China-Russia alliance and the US-Japan alliance. However, no one is currently prepared for a full-scale war, and everyone is aware of its disastrous effects. Power politics is dominating the world stage now, replacing the emphasis on weapons. Countries are aligning themselves with others and bolstering them with financial support and political appeasement. The United States, China, Russia, India, and everyone else is engaged in this race for domination in power politics. By convening high-level official meetings and investing in infrastructure, China is strategically pulling more countries onto its side. China is also keen to bolster relationships with North Korea to effectively counter the threat from South Korea and Japan. During the highest-level talks between the allies in years, a senior Chinese official reaffirmed ties with North Korea on Saturday during a visit with the Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un, in Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea. It was reported as a friendly get-together between two amicable nations, but when we consider the geopolitics of the area, it becomes intriguing. These countries are known for hiding the truths, perhaps even better than the United States.

    China, The main diplomatic and financial supporter of North Korea looks forward to deepening their relationship. In honor of the anniversary of the start of diplomatic relations, North Korea and China are anticipated to have several exchanges this year. During the 1950–1953 Korean War, China fought on behalf of the isolated communist state against the US and other countries. China’s efforts prevented the Korean reunion and preserved communist rule. The relationship has persisted over the years, with China reportedly breaking UN sanctions in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program and missile launches. Additionally, China supports North Korea’s fragile economy to meet their demands.

    North Korea has recently tested missiles, aimed at frightening South Korea and its ally, the United States. This is the backdrop against which the conference is being held. Zhao Leji, the third-ranking member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee and the chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, is conducting talks in Pyongyang. Zhao stated that since the two nations’ diplomatic relations were established 75 years ago, they have been “Good neighbors and struggled together to attain a common destiny and level of development”, as reported by Xinhua, the Chinese official news agency.

    Zhao’s visit to North Korea marked the first bilateral exchange involving a Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member since the pandemic, which holds significant importance despite claims that it was a friendly meetup. This importance stems from it being the first such exchange after the COVID-19 lockdown. Several events occurred during this period. Kim traveled to Russia in September for a summit with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. According to experts, the deepening relationship with China and Russia could help North Korea to take more aggressive actions in the region. However, amid these accusations, stories of strong friendship between these countries may cause concerns for the people of East Asia.

  • Will the Death Penalty for the Property Tycoon Truong My Lan, Help Vietnam’s Reputation?

    Will the Death Penalty for the Property Tycoon Truong My Lan, Help Vietnam’s Reputation?

    When we examine the history of communism, behind the failures of communist governments, corruption often emerges as one of the prominent causes. It’s true that the communist ruling system, the state-owned ruling system, often becomes the paradise of corruption practitioners. Vietnam, a well-known communist country, does not want to be in such a situation; the country is taking harsh actions against corruption. With an ongoing anti-corruption drive called “Blazing Furnace”, led by the Secretary-General of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, cracking down on corruption at the administration level, many important officials, including two presidents and two deputy prime ministers, were forced to resign. Now, Vietnam is extending its war against corruption beyond the administration level. As a recent development, on Thursday, in a shocking move, one of the country’s influential property tycoons, Truong My Lan, was charged with fraud, bribery, and violation of rules, and sentenced to death.

    Truong My Lan, aged 68, is the founder and chair of the developer Van Thinh Phat, and a well-known businesswoman from Vietnam. Prosecutors indicated on Thursday that the total losses generated by the Truong My Lan swindle now amount to $27 billion, approximately 3% of Vietnam’s GDP. Lan was convicted of embezzling money over a ten-year period from Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB), the largest bank in Vietnam in terms of assets. Despite lacking direct executive authority at SCB, Lan possessed 91.5% of the bank’s shares through intermediaries and shell corporations. She was charged with creating fictitious loan applications to withdraw cash from the bank between 2012 and 2022. Official media reported that these loans constituted 93% of the bank’s entire credit provided. Without these activities, Lan and other SCB bankers were accused of paying state officials the largest bribe ever recorded in Vietnam, worth $5.2 million, to conceal the fraud. During the trial, Do Thi Nhan, a former top banking inspector of the State Bank of Vietnam, testified that the funds were handed over in Styrofoam boxes. Nhan stated that she refused the boxes upon discovering they contained money, but Lan declined to take them back. Lan was put on trial alongside eighty-five other individuals, including former SCB executives, government officials, and central bankers. Lan denied the accusations, and a relative informed Reuters that she would file an appeal prior to the ruling.

    Though the death sentence is an unusually severe punishment for a corruption case, and often considered to create a bad image in front of the modern world, the message brought by the trial and death penalty is clear. No mercy for the corruption. During the trial in Ho Chi Minh City, the decision stated that the defendant’s acts “eroded people’s trust in the leadership of the Communist Party and state.” State media, which is under tight control of the communist party, followed a five-week trial and covered it in great detail. According to VN Express, authorities had erected security cameras and fire safety equipment to preserve the evidence ahead of the hearings; trial-related documents were stored in 105 boxes and weighed 6 tonnes. Over 1,000 of Lan’s properties have been taken into custody, and approximately 2,700 people, 200 of whom were attorneys, were called to the trial. The country, which aims to become China’s replacement or the next industrial and manufacturing hub, is seeking to attract investors, but it is unclear if this tough approach would inspire confidence or suspicion among them. However, in terms of Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign, it is unparalleled and historic.

  • Role of the Philippines Domestic Politics in South China Sea Tensions

    Role of the Philippines Domestic Politics in South China Sea Tensions

    Steadfast foreign policies are instrumental in bolstering the strength and reputation of each country. The United States maintains a consistent foreign policy stance regardless of whether it is led by a Democratic or Republican administration. In many developed democratic nations, policies remain stable across different administrations. However, in some countries, changes in governments and issues in domestic politics lead to significant shifts in foreign policies. Countries with flawed democracies and highly corrupted politicians are often known for making rapid policy changes or shifts in views. They may shift foreign policies to quell the people’s discontent with the ruling government. These shifts may lean towards the United States, China, or India, but regardless, they have a substantial impact on the nation. While some outcomes may be positive, many occasions result in negative effects on the nation, and sometimes, the entire region is affected.

    The Philippines serves as a notable example of these political trends. It is a country where political dynasties, celebrities, and prominent families often wield significant influence over the political sphere, which is rife with corruption. The Philippines is traditionally allied with the United States and in contention with China over the disputed South China Sea. The Philippines and the People’s Republic of China are at odds over the Scarborough Shoal, the Spratly Islands, and the Camago and Malampaya gas reserves. However, China’s economic growth in the 2000s also impacted Philippine politics, leading to a shift in policies favoring China. The former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte, was accused of favoring China, deviating from the conventional strong alliance with the US. Allegations suggest that Duterte aided China in advancing its efforts in the South China Sea by forming an unofficial alliance with the country.

    Actually, a hornet’s nest was created by the purported “Gentleman’s Agreement” between China and the Philippines regarding the South China Sea during the previous Duterte administration. Harry Roque, a former presidential spokesman, contended that the unofficial agreement was designed to maintain the status quo in turbulent areas, such as the Second Thomas Shoal. The agreement was referred to as a “Disguised Surrender” of the nation’s sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone by retired Associate Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court. Many important figures requested an inquiry over this agreement. It was deemed “Treasonous” by Senator Ana Theresia Hontiveros, who also requested an investigation. The covenant purports to require Manila to promise not to transfer building supplies to support its outpost in the low-lying Second Thomas Shoal, which is a corroding beached ship. Opponents claim that it gives Beijing more leverage.

    It was clear that Duterte favored China by deviating from the conventional US-favored policy. Even though Duterte didn’t sever the US relationship, his closeness to China definitely affected the relationship with the US. The current president Bongbong Marcos, is shifting the policy back in favor of the US, which makes China more aggressive. Many believe that Marcos’s return to a policy favoring the United States is part of the growing tension between the current and previous presidents; their disagreement became apparent to the public. The “Gentleman’s Agreement” was withdrawn, but the sudden changes show how short-sighted Philippine foreign policy has become. Indeed, domestic politics are affecting the Philippines. A political alliance with Beijing in the previous government was undoubtedly in the interest of politicians, even though it is evident that China wants to increase its territory and does not share the Philippines ambitions. Politics also plays a role in the current movement towards the US. We can predict that there is a chance that the future president will alter these policies.

    Under the new president, it appears that the Philippines is heavily leaning on the United States; they have entered into numerous agreements with the United States, and Biden recently announced a commitment to protecting the Philippines along with Japan. It’s clear that there will be a warming of the relationship between the United States and the Philippines as the Chinese economy shows weakness, and there will be no switching. However, if the government fails to address the people’s issues, opposition may sometimes bring China back into the scenario. Nevertheless, it’s certain that Philippine politics contribute significantly to the country’s problems.

  • How Israel’s Gaza Attack Revealed New Global Order

    How Israel’s Gaza Attack Revealed New Global Order

    There is no doubt that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world order is led and directed by the Mighty United States. However, after three decades of US supremacy, the last three years have seen considerable shifts in the United States’ supremacy in the global order. As the Gaza attack and Ukraine war continue without seeming a possible end, some points are clear: the UN is an ineffective waste of money, the United States can no longer participate in direct wars, Russia appears weak, China can only fight with words, and Muslim solidarity among nations for Palestine has waned. Yes, this is the new world order. Even the policymakers are confused about the new developments around the world. The Gaza conflict is actually shedding light on the shaken world order. And this new world order is curious with some important happenings that could never previously be expected. The United States is not vetoing the resolution against Israel. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other important Muslim countries are no longer interested in Palestine. While the embassy is attacked in Syria, Iran Remains calm.

    Every war reshapes history and presents significant challenges to international relations. Two days after the Hamas massacre in Israel that ignited the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the region would be reshaped to Israel’s advantage. Six months later, nobody believes they’ve lost yet. However, these events pose challenges to international relations. Interestingly, the United States is now taking a strong stance against Israel’s aggression, demanding a ceasefire and withdrawing from vetoing the UN Security Council resolution. While this stance doesn’t directly impact the relationship, it generates discontent among political figures and is also considered part of an internal issue in Israel. As a country deeply intertwined with the money and politics of the United States, experts suggest that the United States’ recent actions reflect discontent stemming from long-standing rule and corruption allegations against Netanyahu 

    And another important development is the freezing of the progress of the United States mission in the Middle East to unite Sunni Arab countries and Israel, which initially appeared successful. It was a significant achievement by Donald Trump, leading to successful agreements between many Arab countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco with Israel. This movement is undoubtedly part of the evolving agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, resulting in the relationship between Jews and Sunni Islamic countries reaching an all-time high. However, Israel’s Gaza attack has unsettled the populace in the region, causing countries to distance themselves from further progress in building relationships with Israel. Additionally, there is discontent among Turkey and Egypt who have already established relationships with Israel. Iran, the sponsor of Hamas, is not only gaining support from Shia countries like Lebanon and Syria but also from the global Muslim population, thus strengthening its position in international politics. Despite making strong statements, Iran has not taken any action to de-escalate tensions in Gaza, actions they are capable of. Furthermore, Pakistan, another country seeking domination in Islamic countries and the largest ally of the United States, is becoming increasingly irrelevant in international politics.

    Israel’s Gaza attack has also been seized upon as a golden opportunity for Russia, which is facing humiliation in Ukraine. The Ukraine war has receded from the main headlines, allowing Russia to present double standards to Western countries. However, many doubt the capabilities of Russia. Even their closest ally, China, the globally overrated power, appears to be keeping its distance from the latest developments. Additionally, countries like Brazil, South Africa, and Spain have made headlines by advocating peace in various forums. India, previously distant from Israel and the US, has conventionally supported Palestine and a two-state solution. However, it is now emerging as one of the biggest supporters of Israel, with the friendship between Modi and Netanyahu strengthening this stance.

    No doubt, the United States remains the sole superpower in the world. Russia, China, or any other nation cannot match the effectiveness of the Soviet Union in foreign policies and military strategy development. However, recent incidents mark a weakness in the United States’ political strategy. US diplomacy is experiencing continuous setbacks, particularly during the Biden era. They struggle to direct Israel, influence Europe, confront adversaries, and execute effective campaigns. Biden has failed to achieve his aims in renovating political relationships damaged during the Trump era. The new global order exposes the weaknesses of the United States. Additionally, the Middle East is transitioning from an era defined by religion to one driven by business.

  • Ruling Party Gets Heavy Defeat in South Korean Parliamentary Elections

    Ruling Party Gets Heavy Defeat in South Korean Parliamentary Elections

    People showed a red signal to the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in the South Korean Parliamentary Election. The party, along with a number of prominent leaders, suffered defeat in the 22nd general election, which was held on April 10th to choose 300 lawmakers. Under the leadership of progressive leader Lee Jae-myung, who was the target of an assassination attempt earlier this year, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea reaped a landslide victory. The Democratic Party secured 161 seats out of the 254 constituency seats where members are chosen by the direct voting system. By combining the seats gained by the allies and the proportional seats, Lee Jae-Myung can easily form a strong government.

    With an overall turnout of 67 percent, the highest in 32 years, the shift of the wind was sensible and became evident with the election results. The People Power party, a conservative party which had won the presidential election two years before, saw conservative figure Yoon Suk Yeol take oath as president. Yoon’s campaign was successful in upholding Korean conservatism. However, the people decided to vote against the People Power party in the parliamentary election to replace the government under the prime ministership of Han Duck Soo, who was accused of several instances of corruption and misdeeds. The aggressive actions against opposition leaders, rising inflation, and the ongoing doctors’ strike all contributed to the loss of the People Power party, which only secured 109 seats, a combined number of constitutional and proportional seats. 

    The election has piqued the interest of the international media since it is perceived as a showdown between liberalism and conservatism, a trend that is currently evident in all democracies. Furthermore, Korea is perceived as a significant cultural force, and the belief that it is undergoing a rapid social revolution only adds to the curiosity 

    As the Prime Minister and leader of the disastrous election campaign, Han Duck Soo, along with his colleagues and senior politicians, took responsibility and offered their resignations. However, the result is actually a severe blow to President Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon accepted the result and promised a revision, though conventionally, a parliamentary election is considered as an assessment of the president or a referendum, and he failed. As many political analysts previously predicted, he planned to implement significant changes in domestic policies by leaning towards a conservative agenda before, but now it seems impossible. It’s clear that as the opposition holds the majority, they can block presidential vetoes and the passage of constitutional amendments. Yoo will be a lame duck leader as his rule has three more years in his five-year tenure.

    In terms of foreign policy, the South Korean parliamentary election is not having any serious effect, but the result is saddening for the United States and Japan. The relationship is at its warmest point, and they admire Yoon. However, the current prime minister has often adopted neutral stances on the Taiwan and Ukraine issues. Nevertheless, as the country highly values the international policies it has crafted with the United States and Japan, the election result will not have much impact

    The election result is hailed by the media as punishment for the previous government, which brought the people’s lives into misery with price hikes. Many experts point out that South Korean people prefer liberalism over conservatism, and it’s true. With the alliance of the Democratic Party and other liberal parties like the Progressive Party and the New Progressive Alliance winning seats, it clearly shows the mood of the nation. Additionally, many small parties also secured seats in the election by capitalizing on discontent with conventional parties. Despite being founded weeks before the election under the former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, the new Rebuilding Korea Party garnered 12 seats.

    Lee Jae-myung, the winner of the election, addressed the victory. As a politician who is always in the headlines of newspapers and whose journey started from a child factory worker to the prime ministership, he is an interesting figure to study. He has been plagued with several scandals, though Korean people chose him to replace the Han Duck soo government, which failed to address inflation and the cost of living crisis. Lee acknowledged that he will work on it. Korean people are showing that they have their own priorities. Conservatism may not be accepted in the face of price hikes.

  • Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Narendra Modi is on a mission to sweep the upcoming Indian general election. He continuously states in rallies that he will secure 400+ seats out of the total 545 seats. Perhaps it is merely an election strategy to ensure the common perception that Modi will continue for a third term, though it’s clear that if Modi wants a third term single-handedly, he has to expand his influence to the southern states, which are still opting for the rival Indian National Congress and its allies.

    When opinion polls and election scientists predict the loss of current seats and anticipate tough fights from states where Modi’s BJP has secured the majority of their seats, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra, they are focusing on other states that traditionally haven’t contributed to the BJP. South India is now in the radar of the BJP. The people of southern states, with different ethnicities and languages compared to the rest of India, always follow different trends. But Modi has proven his winning mindset before and is not backing down. By increasing rallies and setting up thorough election campaigns, Modi is getting ready to reap more seats from the south.

    South India, the region comprising the five states and one union territory, which are Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Puducherry, contributes almost 130 seats out of 545 seats. Every state has different political scenarios, different leaders, and different alliances. The stronghold of the Indian National Congress has the government in Karnataka and Telangana. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the ruling parties are allied with the Indian National Congress. In Andhra Pradesh, a Congress faction, YSR Congress, is in administration, and the only government in alliance with the BJP is in Puducherry.

    Tamil Nadu, known as the paradise of regional parties, has a myriad of parties advocating Tamil nationalism, representing various castes, and fans associations of movie stars. It holds the most number of seats in South India, with 39 seats in the upcoming general election being contested by three alliances. The INDI alliance, comprising the Indian National Congress, Tamil Nationalist Party DMK, Communist parties, and Dalit Party VCK, is at the forefront. The All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance includes some Islamist parties, and the NDA, the BJP-led front, comprises the Vanniyar Caste Party Pattali Makkal Katchi and factions of All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The state gave one or two seats to the BJP in the last elections, and opinion polls suggest they may gain some seats this time, improving upon their previous general election’s record of zero seats. Expectations are for 3-4 seats to be won here, while opinion polls favor the INDI alliance. However, Modi is confident and hardworking, conducting numerous rallies and expecting to secure more seats from Tamil Nadu.

    Karnataka, which has 28 seats, is the only BJP stronghold in South India. Previously, it formed governments, and BJP surprisingly secured 26 seats in the last Indian general election. However, the state assembly election followed by the general election was swept by the Indian National Congress. BJP formed an alliance with the regional party JDS to repeat the victory of the last time and sweep all seats. However, this time, the Congress is putting up a tight fight under a strong state-level leader. It is expected that the BJP-led NDA alliance can secure 15-18 seats out of the 28 available. In a state known for Hindu-Muslim tensions, BJP will definitely use Hindu sentiments to secure more seats.

    In Andhra Pradesh, which contributes 25 seats, there are multi-front fights. The ruling YSR Congress, a faction of Congress, is on one side, while the Indian National Congress is on the other. Additionally, the BJP leads an alliance with the strong regional party TDP and the party of movie star Pawan Kalyan. Like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh has many parties associated with movie stars and caste-based parties. However, as the general election coincides with the state assembly election, the sentiment against the ruling state government largely determines the election results. In the last general election, the YSR Congress party led with 22 seats out of 25, with the rest going to the TDP. But this time, the Indian National Congress and BJP are also contenders. With the alliance of TDP and the Modi factor, BJP is expecting to secure 3-4 seats from Andhra Pradesh.

    Kerala is the state that has never given a Member of Parliament to the BJP. The BJP doesn’t have any significant role in the political landscape of the state, which has 20 seats and is highly divided between the CPIM-led LDF alliance and the INC-led UDF alliance. Even though the BJP has some strongholds in the state, they didn’t secure any seats in the last general election for parliament. Out of the 20 seats, 19 were won by UDF and 1 by LDF, but the subsequent state assembly election was won by LDF. However, with the state facing severe economic struggles and the rise of Islamism, there is hope for the BJP. Narendra Modi has conducted several rallies, and they are expecting to secure more than 4 seats from the state in the changed political landscape.

    Telangana contributes 17 seats to the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). In the upcoming general election, there is expected to be a multi-front fight for these 17 seats. The INC, BJP, and the strong local party BRS, along with many communist and religious parties, are all participating. In the last general election in 2019, BRS secured the highest number of seats with 9, followed by BJP with 4, and then Congress with 3. However, the INC made a comeback following the state assembly election. Currently, the INC holds the advantage in opinion polls, while the BJP is gaining momentum and hopes to capitalize on the collapse of the BRS Party. BJP expects to secure more than 4 seats, and there is a possibility for BJP to capitalize Hindu-Muslim religious tensions.

    Puducherry, the Union Territory, an old French territory, has one seat in the House of Commons, which was won by the INC last time. Then, the BJP-led alliance won the state assembly election, and they are expecting to win the seat by tightening the contest.

    It’s clear that the Indian National Congress has the upper hand in South India. However, the BJP will pose a tough challenge, and the growth of the BJP in the region is evident. They are gradually expanding into more regions and states, with Modi giving importance to the region. Increasing their tally from the current 29 out of 130 seats to more will help them secure additional seats and decrease the number of seats for their prime rival, the INC, as they too expect to gain more seats from the region. Predictions suggest 35 to 40 seats for the BJP in the upcoming general election, and sometimes it may even be more. Modi has proven before that he can work wonders in general elections.

  • Singapore Extends Hand of Friendship to Palestinian Authority

    Singapore Extends Hand of Friendship to Palestinian Authority

    The ceasefire talks appear to be deadlocked. People, including women and children, are being killed in response to Israel’s actions following the Hamas massacre of Israeli citizens on October 7th. Gaza, the territory ruled by Hamas, is on the brink of complete collapse due to Israel’s aggression. Everyone knows what’s happening in Gaza is a crime. However, besides some countries like South Africa and Spain, the world remains silent. So-called Muslim countries show little interest in addressing this issue, except for Iran, which directly sponsors Hamas. As part of global Muslim solidarity, there is growing outrage on social media, but Muslim governments mostly limit themselves to issuing statements on the issue. Given the support of the United States and other economic leaders for Israel, countries cannot openly oppose Israel, so they opt to condemn attacks on Hamas ruling Gaza. Singapore, a developed country in Southeast Asia with a significant Muslim population, appears to be following a different strategy: refraining from Gaza and instead seeking to establish stronger connections with the Palestinian Authority and West Bank.

    Despite Singapore being surrounded by Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia, which have witnessed a surge in political Islam, Singapore maintains warm relations with Israel through numerous treaties and economic and military bilateral trades. While Malaysia and Indonesia have recognized Palestine as a state, Singapore has not recognized Israel and has positioned itself favorably with Israel and the United States, which has benefited Singapore’s economy. Nevertheless, Singapore has consistently supported and advocated for a two-state solution, including the formation of a Palestinian state. Singapore has also supported Palestine by voting to grant it observer state status in the UN. 

    As the latest development of Singapore’s clever strategy, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong  congratulated newly appointed Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Dr Mohammad Mustafa. Palestinian Authority, the Hamas rival Fatah controlling government from the Ramallah, West Bank is considered more in connection with western governments. Since 2013, Palestinian Authority has used the name of Palestinian government and they represent Palestine in meetings instead of the Hamas controlled Government from Gaza. By extending congratulations to the newly appointed Palestinian Authority leader, Singapore is paving the way for further ties with the West-friendly Palestinian Authority.  This will help Singapore’s reputation in the West and the Islamic majority neighbors. As the regional business hub, this is important for Singapore. And it will quench the dissatisfaction of Islamic population in Singapore even though they are free from Islamic surge in Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Dr. Mustafa succeeded his predecessor, Mohammed Shtayyeh, who resigned in February, as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority during Israel’s invasion of Gaza last month. Mr. Lee noted that it was a “Very challenging time” in his letter of congratulations to Mustafa, given that the Israel-Hamas conflict was approaching its sixth month and there was little indication that hostilities would end soon. “The severe humanitarian situation in Gaza profoundly worries Singapore. To enable the quick and unrestricted delivery of relief, we support an urgent humanitarian ceasefire” – he stated. In addition to deploying a Republic of Singapore Air Force aircraft for airdrop missions, Singapore has provided three installments of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

    In addition, Lee mentioned Singapore’s pre-war initiatives for Palestine. Mr. Lee underlined Singapore’s commitment to supporting Palestinian efforts to build capacity under the Enhanced Technical Assistance Package (ETAP). In his letter to Dr. Mustafa, he stated that throughout the ETAP, over seven hundred Palestinian officials have taken part in research tours and training sessions. A representative office was set up in the West Bank’s Ramallah in 2022 in order to improve Singapore’s relation with the Palestinian Authority. Mr. Lee went on to underline Singapore’s support for a negotiated two-state solution, calling it “The only viable path towards a comprehensive, just, and durable peace” between Israelis and Palestinians. 

    While the Palestinian Authority, known as one of the most corrupt but peaceful Palestinian organizations, has no role in Israel’s war on Gaza, Singapore is pursuing the most practical approach for the country. Singapore cannot involve itself in Gaza due to its close ties with Israel and the United States. However, as Asia’s business hub and an important trade post for many Muslim countries, Singapore can demonstrate its commitment to Muslims and Palestine by strengthening its relationship with the Palestinian Authority. This strategy aims to satisfy the Islamic populace while maintaining alignment with the US, effectively hitting two birds with one stone.

  • Will the 2024 General Election Mark the End of Indian Communism?

    Will the 2024 General Election Mark the End of Indian Communism?

    The Modi era is redefining Indian politics. The Indian political landscape has undergone drastic changes since Modi assumed the prime ministership after the 2014 general election. Under his leadership, the ruling party, BJP’s influence has expanded across India, with many states that were previously inaccessible to even the mighty Indian National Congress now showing no reluctance to turn in favor of the BJP. As a result, several political parties, including the Indian National Congress, are experiencing their lowest representation in the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). Indian communist parties, once significant players in Indian politics, have also suffered significant losses, with their remaining strongholds crumbling during what Modi’s supporters refer to as his “Ashwamedha”. Despite India’s large working-class and untouchable populations, which were once seen as fertile ground for communism, the country now appears poised to eradicate the last vestiges of communist influence.

    In a country that maintained a highly amicable relationship with the Soviet Union, numerous communist-affiliated parties emerged. Among these, The Communist Party of India (CPI) and its factions are considered the foremost representatives of communism in India. The Communist Party of India was founded in 1925 in Kanpur and actively participated in the resistance against British rule and Indian landlords. The party garnered support from the people by addressing common issues such as casteism and advocating for land reforms. Following independence in 1947, the party gained popularity at the national level and emerged as the second-largest party in the early Lok Sabha elections. It also formed governments in many states through democratic elections.

    The Communist Party of India (CPI) and its two divisions, the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPIM) and the Communist Party of India Marxist Leninist (CPIML), are considered the strongest communist parties in the Indian political landscape. There are many other divisions, including several banned divisions, who do not agree with the Indian constitution and fight against the Indian military, commonly referred to as the “Naxals”. The CPI, CPIM, and CPIML are also contesting in the upcoming general election. They are in coalition with the INDI alliance and contesting in many constituencies. 

    CPIM, the strongest and only remaining national party, is contesting most seats. They are part of the government in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, but they fear they will lose their status as a national party if they do not make an impressive performance in the upcoming general election. CPIM is contesting in Kerala, once a stronghold, and in West Bengal, Tripura, and several pockets in the states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, etc., with the support of the Indian National Congress. They do not have any national ambition, but they want to preserve their election symbol, the prestigious Hammer sickle and star, and their national party status. They hope they can garner anti-Modi votes in Kerala and anti-Mamata votes in Bengal and contribute to the INDIA alliance to form a government. However, considering the ground reality, the possibilities are low. In Kerala, their only remaining fortress in India, they failed to form an alliance with the Indian National Congress, and they are fighting each other. It is expected that INC has the upper hand in Kerala with the people’s hatred toward the incumbent communist government. In West Bengal and Tripura, once strongholds of CPIM, the party is now very weak, and it will be a wonder if they secure seats there as they face stiff competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party, though they expect to secure some single-digit seats in Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan as part of the INDI alliance.

    CPI and CPIML, other important communist parties, have already lost their national party status. They contest in the election just to have their representation in the Lok Sabha. They are contesting in their strongholds like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Bihar, and Jharkhand. CPI expects some single digits from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, while CPI ML expects seats from Bihar. All three prominent communist parties are getting ready for the endgame because they know that if they are removed from one state, a comeback is almost impossible. In every state where communist parties have been removed from power, people don’t choose them again. West Bengal, the state they ruled for almost 40 years, doesn’t offer any scope for them now. And in Tripura, they vanished. Therefore, continuing to be represented from their remaining stronghold is important for them. Many opinion polls and reports are predicting a blow for the communist party. Combining all three parties at the national level, a mere five to ten seats are predicted.

    There are many reasons why communist parties are failing. Firstly, continuous splitting has led to the division of vote banks and reduced the bargaining power and wealth of the party. Even though they are now cooperating, they remain split. Additionally, there is a lack of vision from leadership, shifting policies, increasing caste-based politics since the 1990s, and a Hindu wave since 2014. The party leadership is considered greedy, and many are reported to be corrupt. Serious corruption accusations are rising against leaders, including the remaining communist Chief Minister, Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who is expected to be arrested after the election. It is clear that people are moving away from communist parties, and the party struggles to reach a new audience except for some university students. And interestingly, The current ruling party of India, the BJP, considers communists as anti-nationals. Therefore, this election will decide the future of communism in India.

  • Call for Elections in Israel as Netanyahu’s Popularity Declines

    Call for Elections in Israel as Netanyahu’s Popularity Declines

    In Tel Aviv and throughout Israel, thousands of demonstrators have assembled, demanding that the government negotiate the release of captives held by Hamas in Gaza and call for early elections. Israel, now under a new coalition led by long-standing leader Benjamin Netanyahu due to emergency circumstances, is launching attacks on Gaza and expanding operations to Lebanon and Syria. Dissatisfaction with the government is also mounting among the Israeli population, fueled by the failure to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas and poor governance. As international pressure, particularly from the US and UK, intensifies regarding the government’s actions in Gaza, reports indicate a growing sense of dissent among the Israeli populace, with calls for elections gaining traction.

    Israeli Minister Benny Gantz, a key figure in the government’s war cabinet and a prominent rival of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is spearheading calls for early parliamentary elections in September amidst growing pressure fueled by the Gaza conflict. Dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s extended leadership, marked by authoritarian tendencies and allegations of corruption, has been simmering for some time. Netanyahu has held the prime minister’s office since 2009, with only a brief hiatus from June 2021 to December 2022. The recent Hamas attack has momentarily fostered unity among the populace and opposition parties. However, as tensions rise, the focus shifts to the issue of hostage release, prompting criticism that Netanyahu is leveraging the conflict to divert attention from other pressing matters.

    Gantz, the leader of the National Unity Party and a former Alternate Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Defence Minister and retired army general, currently serves as Minister without Portfolio in the wartime government since 2023. Gantz recently called for elections during a statement from his position in the Israeli parliament, proposing a date in September or on the first anniversary of a conflict that would be agreeable to all parties.

    The current government of Israel, the thirty-seventh in its history, was established in 2022 following the Knesset election. Led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the sixth time, this coalition government comprises seven parties: Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Religious Zionist Party, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, and the National Unity Party, with notable representation from the far right. Following the outbreak of the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict, opposition leader Yair Lapid joined Netanyahu and formed  an emergency government. 

    The Likud party, under the leadership of the prime minister, dismissed the suggestion for an early election, contrasting with the support it received from other quarters. Senator Schumer echoed the sentiment, endorsing early elections due to a substantial majority of the Israeli populace favoring it in a significant poll. Yet, the prospect of early elections hinges on  securing the agreement of 61 elected officials in the Knesset, where Likud holds the largest number of seats but falls short of a majority. Likud voiced opposition to holding a national poll during wartime, expressing concerns that it could induce paralysis and interfere with military operations in Gaza.

    With awareness of Netanyahu’s waning popularity and widespread dissatisfaction with the current government, Likud confronts significant hurdles. Recent polls suggest that in the event of early elections, Gantz would eclipse Netanyahu in popularity, a trend particularly evident since October 7. Israel is currently grappling with a multitude of challenges. International discontent is mounting due to escalating casualties, reports of military operations, and civilian suffering in Palestine, including the deaths of foreign aid workers. The absence of progress toward hostage release further exacerbates the conflict. As the war persists, drawing criticism from foreign powers such as the US and UK, and with countries like Spain voicing strong objections, domestic protests and calls for elections pose formidable challenges for Netanyahu’s administration.