Can Bangladesh’s Riotous Student Leaders Build a New Political Order?
The pattern was all too familiar—much like in many Islamic states, the ousting of a strong secular leader often signals not democratic renewal but the rise of Islamist factions, followed by a descent into instability. Initially, Bangladesh appeared set to follow this trajectory, with Hasina’s removal fueled by mass protests.
However, six months on, the forces of Islamization have not surged to dominance, nor has the country spiraled into complete chaos—offering a glimmer of hope for democracy. The upcoming general election now stands as a pivotal moment for a nation already fractured by political uncertainty. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is maneuvering for a political resurgence, the Awami League remains paralyzed by fear, and Islamist parties add further complexity to the landscape.
Amid this turbulence, the student activists who once spearheaded Hasina’s ouster have launched their own political faction, presenting it as an effort to reshape Bangladesh’s future. Whether they can move beyond their revolutionary roots and establish a sustainable political alternative remains an open question.
The New Student Party
Forged in the chaos of the riots that unseated Sheikh Hasina, the National Citizen Party (NCP) was founded by student leaders who once stood at the front lines of the uprising. They chose Nahid Islam—one of Bangladesh’s most prominent protest figures—to lead their movement. Until recently, Islam advised the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the administration that took charge in the wake of Hasina’s departure.
Speaking at a public rally in Dhaka on Friday, the NCP formally outlined its political vision and ambitions. Party leaders, including Nahid Islam, emphasized their commitment to drafting a new democratic constitution to prevent the return of constitutional autocracy. They presented the NCP as a fresh alternative to the long-dominant Awami League (AL) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), pledging to break the cycle of corruption and authoritarianism that has long plagued the country’s politics.
Bangladeshi voters have historically faced limited choices at the ballot box, and some analysts believe that the emergence of a third or fourth political force could ease the electorate’s frustrations. NCP representative Akhtar Hossain reaffirmed the party’s commitment to participatory politics and its opposition to both Islamophobia and religious extremism in the Muslim-majority nation. He noted that Bangladesh has experienced both anti-Islamic sentiment and extremism, and the NCP aims to counter both by prioritizing civic dignity and inclusive political participation.
However, some critics find the party’s stance contradictory, questioning whether it can maintain a balanced position between secularism and religious influences while appealing to a diverse electorate.
Duopoly in Bangladesh Politics
Since Bangladesh emerged from the 1971 Indo-Pak war, its political landscape has been less a contest of ideas than a dynastic struggle between two entrenched forces. The Awami League (AL), buoyed by India’s backing, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), with historical ties to Pakistan, have alternated between dominance and opposition, their rivalry defining the nation’s turbulent democracy. Smaller leftist and Islamist parties have struggled to gain significant voter support. Both parties have faced allegations of corruption, authoritarianism, and a failure to address systemic inequality, discrimination, and social injustice.
With the Awami League weakened by Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, the BNP has emerged as the most powerful political force. However, the National Citizen Party (NCP), the newly formed youth-led party, is attempting to carve out space for itself—often at the expense of both. In some areas, NCP activists have clashed with BNP supporters as they seek to claim AL strongholds, leading to heightened political tensions.
Samantha Sharmin, a leading figure in the NCP, has accused the BNP—without naming it directly—of obstructing national unity. She argued that every effort to build a new political consensus after Hasina’s fall has been disrupted by a party that views itself as Bangladesh’s rightful political leader.
The BNP has dismissed such accusations, maintaining that its priority is to contest the next elections and restore democracy. BNP politician Harunur Rashid welcomed the emergence of the NCP but downplayed its significance, arguing that his party has already earned the trust of voters and that the NCP lacks the political strength to challenge them. According to him, the BNP is unwilling to allow the NCP to rise at its expense.
Disagreements between the two parties extend to the nature of the elections. The NCP has called for the formation of a new constituent assembly to draft a fresh constitution, while the BNP insists that parliamentary elections should be held first. Additionally, the NCP has urged the interim government to ban the Awami League entirely—a demand the BNP has refused to support, arguing that the AL’s fate should be decided through elections. This position allows the BNP to maintain a more democratic image, but critics argue that it is also a strategic move to keep the political fight between the BNP and the AL, excluding new challengers like the NCP.
Sharmin has harshly criticized the BNP’s approach, accusing it of manipulating public sentiment, betraying the spirit of the 2024 uprising, and keeping the Awami League politically relevant. However, some analysts believe that despite its weakened state, the AL remains a significant force, still commanding between 30% and 35% of the vote. If NCP is sidelined, the AL opposition base may consolidate behind the BNP, further strengthening the party and shaping the upcoming elections into yet another AL-BNP contest—exactly the scenario the NCP is trying to disrupt.
Evolving Political Landscape
While the interim government has regained control, sporadic mob attacks and rising tensions continue to fuel unrest. Public frustration is mounting over delays in drafting a new constitution and holding elections. Any further postponement risks triggering another wave of violent protests, with political parties like the BNP and NCP likely to seize the moment to position themselves as successors—potentially plunging Bangladesh into deeper chaos.
The political battle is increasingly shaping up between the BNP and the NCP. However, despite its removal from power, the Awami League still holds significant influence. If elections are further delayed, the AL could reenter the political arena, presenting itself as the only viable option for stability. Even if legally barred from returning to power, the party may find an alternative political platform to retain its presence. How intelligence agencies navigate this evolving landscape could be instrumental in shaping future alliances. At the same time, Islamist factions may once again push for Islamic rule.
In the coming months, Bangladesh may witness the rise of additional political parties, as various factions seek to exploit the prevailing uncertainty—each attempting to “Catch fish in muddy waters.”
