Category: Asia

  • Asia’s Korean Love: How will Korean Soft Power Influence the Region?

    Asia’s Korean Love: How will Korean Soft Power Influence the Region?

    Several months ago, a cohort of young girls mysteriously disappeared from their homes in India, sparking a widespread search by local authorities. Subsequent investigations led the police to locate the missing girls, revealing a captivating story behind their departure. The reason for their unexpected journey garnered significant attention as it unfolded in the media—a tale infused with the fervor of dedicated BTS fans determined to catch a glimpse of their idols at any cost.

    This unique incident unfolded in India, a country known for its historical reluctance to embrace foreign cultural phenomena, including those from the United States. The episode serves as just one example within a vast tapestry of occurrences illustrating the profound impact of South Korean culture and celebrities on a global scale. Whether through the infectious rhythms of K-pop, the allure of K-beauty, or the influence of South Korean cinema and fashion, this East Asian nation has consistently punched above its weight in shaping international trends.

    Exemplifying this cultural influence is the phenomenal success of the “Gangnam” Star PSY,  boyband BTS, and girl band “ Blackpink”  which annually rakes in billions. The group’s popularity transcends borders, reaching far beyond South Korea’s shores. Particularly noteworthy is the distinct appeal BTS holds for Asian audiences, leading individuals from diverse nations such as Pakistan, Japan, Mongolia, and Indonesia to adopt Korean cultural standards as their own.

    This phenomenon signifies a notable departure from traditional style benchmarks, with Asian communities increasingly finding resonance in South Korean cultural norms. As a result, the reach and impact of South Korea’s cultural exports continue to extend across the globe, leaving an indelible mark on societies far and wide.

    Korea Now possesses a formidable superpower—its soft power. In the aftermath of World War II, the United States effectively wielded this soft power in the era of the internet and information, establishing itself as a global influencer. Setting standards in music, fashion, and cinema, the U.S. crafted a narrative that painted its citizens as the epitome of excellence, often leaving African, Asian, and even Eastern European perspectives feeling marginalized.

    However, with the advent of the smartphone era, the pre-established U.S. standards encountered challenges as they failed to authentically represent Asia and Asians. Industries across Asia, from Indian cinema to China, Japan, and the Philippines, struggled to break free from the Eurocentric beauty standards perpetuated by the West. Despite the universal appeal sought in content creation, a void remained, leaving the door open for Korea to emerge victorious in recent decades.

    K-pop consistently dominates Asian charts, and years after the immense success of “Squid Game” and Bong’s groundbreaking “Parasite,” the Korean content juggernaut continues to surge forward. With K-pop girl group Twice claiming the top spot on the U.S. album chart, South Korea’s cultural influence shows no signs of waning. And the movies of Ma-Dong Seok made him the  new super star in the region.

    Western studios are currently in the midst of what can be described as a Korean “Gold rush” Netflix, in a significant move, disclosed a staggering $2.5 billion investment in South Korea projects over the next four years, spearheaded by the announcement of a second season of the immensely popular Squid Game. Not to be left behind, Disney and Apple TV+ are also actively seeking a share of the Korean content market, commissioning additional South Korean shows. 

    Even the venerable BBC has joined the fray. In February, CBBC and BBC iPlayer introduced the Gangnam Project, a coming-of-age “dramedy” delving into the journey of becoming a K-pop superstar. 

    For emerging markets like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, a fervor for Korean content is sweeping across the population, reshaping the entertainment landscape and defining the future. Unlike content from the United States, which struggles to make significant inroads in these countries, Korean movies, series, music, and fashion wield considerable influence. This impact is most pronounced among teenagers, youngsters, and smartphone users who transcend conventional religious and cultural boundaries. In the last decade, Merchants note a distinct preference for Korean influencers and products among this demographic, with a notable demand for products endorsed by Korean figures.

    This trend signifies a continued shift among the youth away from conventional movies and music in these regions. While the United States initiated this cultural movement, resistance from older generations curtailed its spread. Interestingly, Korea has avoided such opposition, with elders displaying a more receptive attitude.

    Beyond the Indian subcontinent, countries like China, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam are also experiencing a profound impact from Korean content. Inspired by the success of Korean storytelling, these nations are now exploring and globalizing their own content to align with the Korean narrative. Observing the convergence of these cultural trends, it becomes evident that it presents a unique opportunity for content creators and industries alike.

    The expansive reach of the K-genre has evolved beyond the traditional domains of pop music, TV, and film, now encompassing newer realms such as beauty, fashion, cuisine, and literature.

    This global cultural output has proven to be a lucrative asset for what is now Asia’s fifth-largest economy. In 2021, exports of South Korean cultural content soared to a remarkable $12.4 billion, surpassing earnings from domestic electronic appliances and electric vehicles. A 2019 study by the Hyundai Research Institute estimated that BTS alone contributed approximately $3.67 billion annually to the South Korean economy through exports, consumption, and inbound tourism. The impact is exemplified by the success of the band’s single “Dynamite,” reaching No. 1 in the US in 2020 and believed to have generated almost 8,000 jobs. The government actively supports and promotes this flourishing industry, recognizing its economic significance.

    Despite the predominantly positive portrayal of Korea in its cultural exports, artists also delve into the darker aspects of Korean life, addressing issues such as mental health, sexual assault, and exploitation, particularly of women. Numerous films shed light on the complexities of South Korean society, raising important questions. Instances of K-pop stars secretly filming intimate encounters without consent have exposed South Korea’s “Molka” spycam epidemic, revealing broader issues of misogyny within the entertainment sector. The government actively engages with these challenges, acknowledging the need to address such issues and foster a healthier environment for artists amidst challenging circumstances.

    The most triumphant figures in K-pop have traditionally presented variations of the same song in diverse languages to cater to specific target markets. This strategy notably propelled Jungkook of BTS to the pinnacle of both the US Billboard Hot 100 and the UK singles chart last year with his debut solo single, “Seven.” In a noteworthy evolution, multilingual performers now share the stage with K-pop bands originating outside Korea. For instance, the colossal Korean boyband NCT has expanded to include sub-branches like NCT Wish, featuring six Japanese members, and WayV, whose members hail from China and Thailand. And Blackpink has Aria from India. Additionally, Vcha, an American girl group based in Los Angeles, adds to the global diversity within the genre.

    As linked with popularity for K-lifestyle, a surge in international interest has emerged in learning the Korean language. Universities , Schools, and Language clubs in Asia and the US saw a rise of Korean language demand. Korean is more demanded than Chinese, Japanese among youngsters in Indian language clubs even though the business and job opportunities that language provides.

    South Korea became the  modern center of the creative world. This influence of a cultural superpower  is not a recent development; even in ancient times, states with rich  literature, philosophies, arts, and books held sway. Greece, Persia, India, France, England, to name a few, all harnessed soft power to exert influence. The reverence for cultural superpowers endures, with the United States standing as a prime example. Through movies, music, fashion, and various cultural exports, the United States has established itself as a dominant force globally, overshadowing counterparts from Britain, France, Italy, and Russia. With the 21st century, a new player is in the stage, South Korea is definitely getting an upper hand in the cultural superpower. And Asia which does not cooperate with anything besides the business is getting closely bound with this Korean entertainment business.

  • Manila Faces Humiliation Against China in the South China Sea

    Manila Faces Humiliation Against China in the South China Sea

    It is undeniably disheartening for the Philippines. In the waters of the South China Sea, a Chinese coast guard ship deployed a water cannon against a civilian Philippine vessel, a stark demonstration of power dynamics and a form of blatant bullying. The widespread dissemination of video clips depicting the incident has stirred strong emotions within the Philippines.

    According to official statements from the Philippines, China engaged in “dangerous maneuvers” that not only inflicted damage on vessels but also resulted in minor injuries to four Filipinos, posing a significant threat to lives. A thorough investigation by a Philippine national task force revealed that the ship’s windshield was shattered during the confrontation. In addition to this distressing incident, a Philippine coast guard vessel suffered minor structural damage in two separate collisions involving Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels.

    Escalating tensions in the South China Sea mark a heightening power struggle between the Philippines and China. The unfolding events transpired during a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre, a venerable World War II-era ship reconfigured to function as an outpost for a small Philippine troop contingent. Grounded in the shallow waters of Second Thomas Shoal since 1999, situated within the Spratly Islands, this aging vessel has now become a central and strategic focus in the ongoing dispute.

    The Philippine Armed Forces describe the rotation and reprovisioning of troops on the BRP Sierra Madre as a routine and essential task, vital for sustaining military forces in the West Philippine Sea and upholding a continuous Philippine presence within its exclusive economic zone. However, China doesn’t like this.

    Video footage from one of the incidents, shared by the Philippines, depicts its crew swiftly placing a buffer between two coast guard vessels on a collision course, while their Chinese counterparts document the event. China argues that its coastguards took necessary measures against a Philippine vessel, accusing it of “illegally intruding” into waters near Second Thomas Shoal.

    According to China, the Philippines deliberately provoked discord and engaged in malicious propaganda, consistently destabilizing peace and stability in the South China Sea, objectives solely pursued by China. Such behavior is viewed as a form of bullying against other nations, including Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. China’s territorial claims encroach upon the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

    The enduring challenges between the Philippines and China persist, partly fueled by robust support from the United States. Through various agreements, the Philippines and the USA have solidified their alliance, positioning the Philippines as the United States’ most reliable regional ally. This collaborative partnership has, to some degree, prevented conflicts from escalating to critical levels. In the event of a large-scale confrontation, the presence of the United States and Japan in the region holds the potential to forestall catastrophic outcomes, averting a scenario reminiscent of a global conflict akin to World War.

    Situated 118 miles (190km) off the Philippine island of Palawan, the disputed atoll lies within Manila’s exclusive economic zone, serving as a contentious focal point in the South China Sea. The Philippines consistently lodges accusations against Chinese vessels for engaging in aggressive attempts to impede resupply missions to the shoal. Analysts caution that escalating incidents heighten the risk of miscalculation, with the potential consequence of involving the United States—a significant ally of the Philippines—in a confrontation with Beijing.

    The Second Thomas Shoal, claimed by both China and the Philippines, faces overlapping claims from Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. This area, crucial for global trade and believed to hold substantial undersea oil and gas deposits, has been a central point of contention. A small Philippine marine and navy contingent stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, a stranded warship since the late 1990s, monitors the area. China has surrounded the shoal with coast guard, navy, and other vessels, hindering Filipino efforts to fortify the Sierra Madre.

    The Chinese coast guard contends that it took control measures against Philippine ships illegally intruding into waters near Ren’ai Reef (Second Thomas Shoal), accusing a Philippine ship of intentionally ramming a Chinese coast guard vessel. Longstanding tensions in the South China Sea were expected to be discussed at a summit of leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and their Australian counterparts in Melbourne, with the Philippines and Vietnam planning to express concerns over China’s escalating actions in the disputed waters.

    Despite a 2015 ruling by an international tribunal in The Hague, dismissing China’s claim to almost the entire South China Sea as legally baseless, China persists in asserting sovereignty over the region. The South China Sea serves as a vital global shipping route, facilitating trillions of dollars in trade annually, while also housing significant reserves of oil, natural gas, and abundant fisheries.

    The timing of the incident just ahead of an Asian leaders’ summit, where Beijing’s maritime aggression was expected to be discussed, adds an intriguing layer to the narrative. Responsibility for the event remains unclaimed, creating a murky backdrop. The task force strongly condemned China’s actions, characterizing them as “another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission.” They emphasized that such unprovoked acts not only put lives at risk but also caused injuries to Filipino individuals.

    In response to these developments, the Philippines took a diplomatic stance by summoning China’s deputy chief of mission to Manila, seeking clarification and addressing what was perceived as “aggressive actions” leading to the collision. Interestingly, the situation has not escalated further, and there is a hope that it will maintain a diplomatic course. The avoidance of an all-out war is crucial, as everyone seeks to assert their rights in the region without triggering a potentially disastrous conflict. It is reminiscent of a situation akin to a college bullying scenario, where posturing for dominance is prevalent, yet there is a shared understanding that a collapse into war would be detrimental for all parties involved.

  • Russia Ukraine War: Russia’s Problem With Demand of Chinese Yuan

    Russia Ukraine War: Russia’s Problem With Demand of Chinese Yuan

    Russian businesses have been depending more and more on the yuan to meet their foreign exchange needs since Moscow was cut off from the Western banking system. As war is not looking to end soon, Yuan financing has become both expensive and scarce in Russia, creating a bottleneck for companies seeking foreign capital. This challenge adds to the existing burdens faced by these companies, including higher domestic interest rates and a looming wave of debt due this year.

    Two years following Russia’s exclusion from the Western financial system, major energy and mining corporations have significantly turned to the yuan to meet their foreign currency needs. China and Russia have notably reduced their dependence on the US dollar in bilateral trade. Over the past year, Chinese and Russian officials reached an agreement to conduct over 90% of trade between the two nations using Russia’s ruble or China’s yuan. This shift has ensured uninterrupted business, leading to a record $200 billion in total transactions between the two countries last year. Simultaneously, Russia’s trade with the US has witnessed a substantial decline, reaching a 30-year low.

    Despite China’s benchmark government bond yields reaching a two-decade low, the restricted yuan liquidity in Russia, coupled with heightened demand from importers, is resulting in increased borrowing costs. This financial challenge compels companies such as MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, Russia’s largest miner, to confront tough decisions—whether to secure expensive ruble funding or bear the rising expense of domestic yuan debt.

    Over the past year, Russia has experienced a more than twofold increase in its benchmark, leading to corporate borrowers contending with an additional 1.2 trillion rubles (US$13 billion) in debt-servicing costs. In the given the current circumstances, the average cost of debt is anticipated to rise.

    The volume of Russian corporate yuan bonds, primarily sold on the domestic market, nearly stalled in the final three quarters of the previous year, reaching the equivalent of 800 billion rubles, as reported by the Russian central bank. While loans in the Chinese currency surged to a record US$46 billion in 2023, their share in corporate credit portfolios remained in single digits.

    Yuan liquidity in Moscow is becoming scarcer, and its costs are becoming more volatile, indicating difficulties in expanding yuan lending for domestic banks. Faced with a deepening yuan liquidity crunch, Russian lenders have resorted to the central bank’s Chinese currency swaps, leading to a substantial increase in yuan funding costs. Industry experts suggest that if the deficit persists, it could result in a further uptick in yuan bond yields.

    Despite facing financial constraints, Russian companies have encountered difficulties in directly borrowing within China due to capital controls complicating the repatriation of funds abroad. Moreover, since 2018, they have refrained from issuing yuan securities like panda or dim sum bonds, a departure from the 11 such issues in the prior eight years. Even the government, despite years of planning its own yuan bonds, has encountered obstacles in discussions with China about securing loans in yuan.

    Chinese lenders, including the world’s largest by assets, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC), have notably increased their exposure to Russia through offshore branches. The Russian subsidiary of ICBC alone observed a five-fold surge in total local assets from the beginning of 2022 through October 1 of the following year, according to the latest data published by the Bank of Russia.

    The increased involvement of Chinese lenders presents a challenge to the financial stability of Russian corporations, heightening concerns about the potential depletion of capital for industries, particularly as refinancing needs sharply escalate. Despite recording robust profits, companies are grappling with constraints, further exacerbated by new export taxes imposed by the government to fund the war. This development undermines the advantages of a weaker ruble that had previously contributed to record margins.

    The elevated interest rates necessitate a more cautious approach by companies when considering investments that require substantial debt capital. This careful strategy reflects the impact of heightened borrowing costs on corporate decision-making and investment strategies.

    The current situation poses a setback for Russia’s and China’s endeavors to promote de-dollarization. Both nations now face the challenge of intensifying efforts to establish their currencies as substitutes for the dollar. The Russian ruble seems to be out of contention, while the limited availability of the yuan is a notable hurdle, despite Beijing’s progress in internationalizing the currency. People’s Bank of China has engaged in bilateral currency swaps with over 30 central banks, including those of Saudi Arabia and Argentina.

    The lack of yuan availability and the abundance of rupees for Russia  reveal hurdles in cooperation between major economies. Additionally, strained relations between China and India limit the possibility of mutual acceptance of their currencies. As major economies work towards cooperation, the realization of a viable alternative to the dollar appears distant.

  • Maldives Deepens Strategic Relationship with China, Evidencing a Shift from India

    Maldives Deepens Strategic Relationship with China, Evidencing a Shift from India

    China and the Maldives have solidified a robust military partnership. On Tuesday, Maldivian officials publicly expressed their desire for the withdrawal of Indian troops from the archipelago while simultaneously finalizing a “military assistance” pact with China. The agreement, characterized as China’s provision of cost-free military aid to the Republic of Maldives, was formally endorsed by the Maldivian Minister of Defense and a senior Chinese military official, aiming to enhance bilateral ties. As per a statement from the Ministry of Defense on X, formerly Twitter, the Maldivian Defense Ministry underscored the agreement’s significance in fostering “stronger bilateral ties,” specifying that the military aid is offered without charge, although specific details were not disclosed.

    Since assuming office in November, President Muizzu has actively sought to strengthen his ties with China. This shift in policy aligns with his “India Out” platform from the election campaign, aimed at reclaiming what is perceived as “lost” sovereignty. President Muizzu underscored Maldives’ Islamic identity over its Indian identity by opting for a ceremonial trip to Turkey, eschewing the traditional visit to India after taking the oath. Subsequently, he solidified his political ties with China. In line with his electoral commitments, Muizzu set a deadline of March 15 for the complete withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives. Negotiations resulted in a phased pullout, with the initial forces departing before March 10 and the remaining troops scheduled to leave by May 10.

    President Muizzu’s triumphant state visit to Beijing in January resulted in the signing of twenty agreements encompassing infrastructure, trade, economy, green development, grants, and various initiatives. Notably, around $127 million has been allocated for the construction of 30,000 social housing units and the enhancement of Male’s road infrastructure. These commitments underscore the president’s unwavering commitment to fostering a robust alliance with China across multiple critical domains.

    During the visit, Muizzu underscored China’s position as one of the Maldives’ closest allies and key developmental partners. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, affirmed Beijing’s dedication to establishing a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership with the Maldives. Mao emphasized that their collaboration is not directed at any third party and remains impervious to external influences.

    Following the visit to China, President Muizzu, in a presidential address on February 5, underscored the critical need for the Maldives to bolster its military capabilities. He revealed that the defense force was on the verge of attaining round-the-clock surveillance capabilities over the nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone, covering an extensive 900,000 square kilometers. Additionally, the government decided against renewing an agreement that permitted foreign countries to measure and map the oceans and coasts of the Maldives.

    India has expressed serious concerns over these recent developments, with the Maldives facing accusations of betrayal in the Indian media. Historically considered a traditional ally of India, the small archipelago in the Indian Ocean, situated close to the Indian mainland, has been heavily dependent on India for support, particularly in terms of military aid, since gaining independence. The alliance’s significance was underscored in 1980 when Indian military forces were dispatched to the Maldives to prevent Sri Lankan rebels from taking control of the islands, solidifying India’s influence in the region.

    However, as the Maldives’ economy underwent expansion and tourism exploration, the nation’s focus pivoted towards China. China emerged as a prominent player, seeking to assert itself in the Indian Ocean and challenge India’s regional dominance. This shift proved highly advantageous for the Maldives, fueled by China’s substantial investments in the region, notably through projects like the $200 million China-Maldives Friendship Bridge and various other initiatives under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

    The completion of this transition was marked by the victory of the president and the party backed by China in the recent Maldivian election, resulting in the ousting of established political parties. The Maldives’ altered geopolitical objectives solidified by the invitation extended to the Chinese Military and the  removal of the Indian military from the islands.

    Presently, there are 77 Indian soldiers and 12 medical personnel from the Indian armed forces stationed in the Maldives. India has provided two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft, primarily employed for marine surveillance, search and rescue operations, and medical evacuations. In light of safety concerns, India has initiated the withdrawal of its military presence, acknowledging the associated risks.

    With the Maldives heavily indebted to China, their reliance on the country is substantial, encompassing the use of airports, ports, and territories. Any escalation of tensions between India and China could position the Maldives as a focal point. Male is in close proximity to the critical Kochi naval base and Thiruvananthapuram, a significant city in India. The Thiruvananthapuram airport is merely a few kilometers from the Maldives. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and all neighboring nations are aligned with China, heightening the risk for India.

    In response, the Indian government has initiated projects to fortify Lakshadweep, an archipelago near the Maldives and a geographical extension of the island chain. Major Indian billionaires are planning substantial investments in Lakshadweep. Moreover, Minicoy Island, the closest to the Maldives, is preparing to establish a naval base, airstrips, and cantonments. India is also strengthening ties with Mauritius, located to the southern side of the Maldives. Given these circumstances, India is not anticipating a reversal from the Maldives and is preparing for potential new threats.

    Despite its image as a well-liked vacation spot for visitors from the US, Europe, the Middle East, and China, the Maldives lost its largest market, Which is India.  Boycott calls and anti-Maldives protests spiked in India, causing a large loss for Male.  Tourism is the backbone of Maldives. And the loss will hit the economy hard. The Maldives government is striving to fill the void left by the Indian market by attracting tourists from China and the Middle East. But India is creating competition in the tourism sector of the region by promoting travels to Mauritius, Seychelles and its own archipelago, Lakshadweep. The heightened competition presents a significant challenge to the Maldives, and it is evident that the country will play a substantial role in any potential tensions between India and China.

  • China Addresses Reality in ‘Two Sessions’: Sets Modest GDP Target And Makes Key Political Decisions

    China Addresses Reality in ‘Two Sessions’: Sets Modest GDP Target And Makes Key Political Decisions

    As the political elite gathers in the capital for the simultaneous sessions of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), colloquially known as the “Two Sessions,” the nation’s top priorities for the upcoming year and beyond are revealed. Premier Li Qiang, addressing this annual assembly, tactfully acknowledges the realistic nature of the 5% GDP growth target. A prudent objective reflects a keen awareness of the intricate challenges posed by the global economy, simmering regional tensions, and nuanced domestic issues.

    While the growth target remains consistent with last year’s, attaining it will necessitate a more substantial government stimulus. This is due to the persistent dependence on state investments in infrastructure, leading to a significant buildup of municipal debt.

    The premier outlines a nuanced vision for the country’s economic future, set against the backdrop of China’s historical preference for modest economic objectives, especially amid regional tensions and demographic complexities. The aftermath of a stumbling post-COVID recovery in the past year has exposed deep-seated structural imbalances in China, encompassing weakened household consumption and diminishing returns on investment. These challenges, including a property crisis, Low customer demand, rising deflation, a downturn in the stock market, and growing concerns over local government debt, have prompted calls for a new development model.

    There are indications that certain challenges facing China’s economy may have deeper roots, particularly issues stemming from an aging population and a diminishing workforce. January’s official data disclosed that China’s working-age population constituted 61% of the economy, down from 68% in 2013.

    It’s evident that these challenges have heightened the pressure on China’s leaders. Premier Li stressed the need for preparedness in the face of all risks and challenges, advocating for a transformation in the growth model, structural adjustments, improved quality, and enhanced performance.

    According to some experts, the significance of the GDP goal has diminished in recent years. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has shifted focus away from growth and, consequently, the importance of the GDP goal. Instead, he emphasizes addressing structural issues that he believes undermine overall economic security.

    During the deliberations of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the annual budget will be discussed, projecting a 7.2% increase in defense spending and a 1.4% rise in public security expenditures. Central government expenditures are expected to witness an 8.6% uptick. Premier Li emphasized a proactive fiscal stance and prudent monetary policy, intending to run a budget deficit of 3% of economic output.

    Notably, China plans to issue 1 trillion yuan (US$139 billion) in special ultra-long-term treasury bonds, not included in the budget. The special bond issuance quota for local governments is set at 3.9 trillion yuan, with China also targeting a consumer inflation rate of 3% and the creation of over 12 million urban jobs to maintain a jobless rate around 5.5%.

    Chinese Premier Li Qiang has restated China’s dedication to the “Reunification” with Taiwan, withholding specific details about the expected timeline for this pursuit., China omitted the reference to “peaceful reunification” in its work report, committing to resolutely advance the cause of China’s reunification and opposing separatist activities leading to ‘Taiwan independence’ and external interference. 

    And as expected China’s defense spending is set to increase by 7.2%, marking the ninth consecutive year of single-digit annual growth and contributing to heightened tensions in the South China Sea.

    In his work report, Premier Li underscored the crucial implementation of the “One Country, Two Systems” policy, ensuring self-governance for Hong Kong residents and preserving the city’s high degree of autonomy.

    Li emphasized the governing principle for Hong Kong and Macau to align with the law and be administered by patriots. He pledged Beijing’s support for the economic growth of both Hong Kong and Macau, striving to improve residents’ livelihoods and ensure sustained prosperity and stability. Highlighting the unique advantages and characteristics of these regions, Li urged active participation in the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, contributing significantly to the overall progress of the country. The Greater Bay Area initiative represents Beijing’s strategic plan to integrate Hong Kong, Macau, and nine other southern Chinese cities into an economic powerhouse and a center for innovation and technology.

    China is set to continue its investment in technology innovation and advanced manufacturing, signaling the removal of all foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, Beijing plans to ease market access constraints in service industries like telecoms and medical services. The government also intends to formulate development plans for emerging sectors such as quantum computing, big data, and artificial intelligence, which are currently under strong government control. However, critics argue that this high-tech manufacturing focus may exacerbate industrial overcapacity, deepen deflation, and heighten trade tensions with Western nations.

    In a surprising move, China has canceled the premier’s post-parliament news conference, sparking concerns about the country’s increasing inward focus and centralized control. This represents a departure from the past three decades when China actively sought to clarify its politics and policies to attract foreign investment and enhance trade. Analysts interpret this shift as a move towards an era of isolation, reflecting China’s evolving stance on openness and transparency.

    Notwithstanding these reports, Chinese stocks exhibited a minimal response, trading largely unchanged, indicating that investors were unimpressed with the stimulus plans and reform promises. Analysts observe that policymakers seem satisfied with the existing trajectory, disappointing those who anticipated a more substantial push. Premier Li acknowledged the challenges associated with these targets but underscored that “high-quality development” remains the foremost priority. So we have to think, China is veering towards more communist approaches in addressing the issues they currently face.

  • Nepal Citizens Recruitment to Wagner Army: How is it Happening?

    Nepal Citizens Recruitment to Wagner Army: How is it Happening?

    In a prevalent trend, individuals from South Asian nations, grappling with overpopulation and high unemployment, often find themselves opting for high-risk employment opportunities. From Saudi Arabia to the UK, there is a noticeable presence of South Asian workers undertaking perilous jobs, driven by the need to support their big families despite the associated dangers. Notably, certain individuals in Nepal are particularly sought after for roles in security services, exemplified by the renowned Gurkhas, considered the elite members of security forces. These warriors, once serving in the armed forces of the British, German, and Soviet nations, are now being recruited into the Wagner Army, actively involved in the conflict on behalf of Russia against Ukraine.

    Over the past year, there have been reports of Nepalese individuals actively engaging in the conflict in Ukraine. The gravity of the situation became apparent on December 4 when it was revealed that six Nepali citizens had lost their lives while participating in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Subsequently, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal disclosed that over 200 Nepali citizens had enlisted in the Russian military since the full-scale invasion commenced in February 2022. PM Dahal also highlighted the presence of Nepalis in the Ukrainian army. And these figures are official counts, and the actual numbers may be higher.

    Responding to the unfolding scenario, Dipendra Bahadur Singh, an official at the National Human Rights Commission Nepal, stressed the importance of diplomatic dialogues between Nepal and both Russia and Ukraine. He underscored the illegality and associated risks of Nepali citizens joining foreign armies without the explicit consent of the state.

    Prime Minister Dahal acknowledged that while Nepal voted in favor of a UN resolution condemning Russia’s attempted annexation of four Ukrainian territories, some Nepalis fighting for Russia have been captured by the Ukrainian army. Furthermore, there is credible information about Nepali nationals serving in the Ukrainian army, adding complexity to the situation.

    Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement cautioning citizens against joining foreign armies in conflict-ridden nations. The emphasis was placed on the fact that Nepali citizens are enlisted only in the national armies of friendly countries under established traditional agreements. And Russia is not in the list.

    As apprehensions escalated, the ministry urged Moscow to bring back Nepali citizens from the conflict zone and to refrain from involving them in the ongoing conflict. Presently, the government is engaged in diplomatic efforts to rescue citizens captured in the war, and local authorities are actively investigating how Nepalis are navigating their way into the Russian army.

    Nepal has implemented a decisive measure by prohibiting its citizens from seeking employment in Russia or Ukraine. This decision aligns with a recent directive from Russian President Vladimir Putin, streamlining the naturalization process for foreigners who choose to join the Russian army. This directive extends the same privilege to immediate family members, creating an added incentive for recruitment.

    Human traffickers operating in Nepal and India have played a central role in orchestrating the transportation of young Nepali men into the conflict in Ukraine. These traffickers exploit the vulnerabilities of individuals by presenting alluring prospects, such as fast-tracked citizenship or significantly higher salaries than what is available in their home countries. A notable crackdown in Nepal resulted in the arrest of twelve individuals in December, charged with trafficking approximately 150-200 men to Russia. These traffickers demanded substantial sums, around $9,000, masquerading as fees for tourist visas to Russia, only to later coerce the victims into joining the Russian military.

    In grappling with the complexity of the situation, the Nepali government had previously appealed to Russia to repatriate the bodies of soldiers who lost their lives in the war against Ukraine, coupled with a demand for just compensation for the grieving families. Moreover, there are reports indicating that additional Nepali soldiers have been taken captive by Ukraine.

    Outside of Nepal, other South Asian nations find themselves entangled in a comparable quandary. Frequently, males embark on illicit migration, often under the guise of tourist visas, taking advantage of countries with lenient visa programs. Those lacking proficiency in the Russian language come under scrutiny, finding themselves ensnared in military engagements, sometimes affiliating with groups like the Wagner military. The predicament extends to India, where reports unveil that certain individuals, under deceptive pretexts, have been dispatched to partake in the conflict in Ukraine. Families of these individuals are now urging the government for aid in repatriation.

    Furthermore, apprehensions persist about potential recruits from Pakistan and Bangladesh. However, acquiring precise figures remains a formidable task due to the absence of robust citizen tracking systems and limited information flow from these countries.

    Similar instances have surfaced involving individuals from diverse nations, including Cuba, Serbia, and several African countries, enlisting in the Russian military. Occasionally, agencies deceive individuals seeking employment in Russia and neighboring countries, redirecting them towards military service without proper informed consent.

    People who are in need of food, those who are jobless and have nowhere else to turn, and even in the event of a conflict, these people will join. It follows that human migration to the conflict zone makes sense. However, it shows how the country has fallen short of ensuring job opportunities and population control. The situation is comparable to that of medieval Europe, when individuals served in other countries’ armies only in order to benefit financially. Sometimes people would sooner die than go hungry. 

  • China’s Parliament to Meetup: What Will be the Outcomes of China’s “Two Sessions”?

    China’s Parliament to Meetup: What Will be the Outcomes of China’s “Two Sessions”?

    China is navigating through tumultuous times, grappling with multidimensional challenges. Issues such as stagnating economic growth, population shrinkage, real estate troubles, the emergence of competing manufacturing hubs in the region, security concerns in the South China Sea, as well as international relationship complications, underscore the complexity of the situation. Interestingly, despite large financial outlays, the Belt and Road plan and related projects spearheaded by Supreme Leader Xi Jinping have not had much of an impact that previously expected. 

    In this context, China’s political leaders are poised to gather for the Annual Legislative Sessions, popularly known as the ‘Two Sessions.’ The National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) will convene concurrently, featuring almost 3,000 NPC delegates endowed with authority over constitutional amendments, legislation, and state appointments. The agenda encompasses a thorough examination of economic, diplomatic, trade, and military strategies. Premier Li Qiang is anticipated to inaugurate the sessions with a comprehensive report covering these vital aspects, alongside discussions on budget approvals and key appointments.

    Legislators are anticipated to greenlight crucial annual budgets, including the military budget, and endorse Premier Li Qiang’s inaugural government work report. the third plenum, initially designed to delve into the midterm plan for the economy and governance but repeatedly delayed. The postponement of the plenum underscores the exceptionally intricate and challenging foreign and domestic issues confronting the Chinese economy.

    The dearth of information continues to fuel the ongoing narrative surrounding China’s political uncertainties, coinciding with a widespread lack of confidence in the nation’s economy among global business leaders and the private sector. International investors eagerly await signals indicative of Beijing’s return to a pro-development stance, closely monitoring indicators such as China’s GDP target and development strategies. Xi Jinping faces heightened concerns regarding the fragility of the Chinese financial system, aggravated by recent turbulence in the stock market. Elevated US interest rates and the persistent US-China rivalry contribute to ongoing capital outflows, exacerbating existing apprehensions.

    Despite Beijing’s announcement of a 5.2 percent growth in 2023, the post-Covid recovery for the world’s second-largest economy remains uneven. Pressing issues such as youth unemployment, demographic shifts, and strains in the property market emerge as significant concerns. Xi’s January declaration, designating the finance system as a “high-risk” area, underscores the renewed focus on this sector. This intensified attention follows a series of prominent crackdowns on state bankers and financiers since 2017, interpreted as efforts to address capital control loopholes that could undermine the effectiveness of any market rescue stimulus.

     Li Qiang’s government work report is unlikely to unveil bold new directions in China’s economic policy. Anticipating a growth target akin to the previous year’s approximately 5 percent, a focus on elaborating the agenda set by the Communist Party during the central economic work conference in December. In the absence of substantial economic reform, achieving this target may necessitate additional stimulus measures, potentially manifesting in a higher deficit-to-GDP target or increased off-budget fiscal injections.

    The Chinese government  is concerned about security too , and China’s neighboring nations are particularly keen on comprehending military budget growth targets. 

    Effectively handling diplomatic and defense affairs is crucial for Beijing to navigate tensions with the United States and manage regional hotspots like the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula. Normalizing operations in these areas requires foreign diplomats and military officials to engage with their Chinese counterparts in accordance with established protocols. The resolution of the ongoing purges within China’s diplomatic and defense corps is contingent upon the Central Committee’s meeting. 

    The recent demotions of Qin and Li have led to vacancies within China’s state council, the nation’s cabinet. Wang Yi, currently the director of the influential CCP foreign affairs commission, has assumed the role of foreign minister, succeeding Qin. However, experts widely perceive this as a temporary arrangement. As this year’s NPC unfolds, there is heightened anticipation for a potential replacement, with Liu Jianchao emerging as a likely candidate due to his significant involvement in recent diplomatic engagements.

    Li, the ousted former defense minister, underwent removal from the CCP’s central military commission, signaling a shift in leadership. Dong Jun is speculated to take over as the new defense minister, but uncertainties persist regarding whether Dong or any new foreign minister will join the state council. The past year witnessed the dismissal of over 10 senior figures in China’s diplomatic and defense circles, some of whom were promoted just last March. Qin Gang, the shortest-serving foreign minister, disappeared in June, while Li Shangfu, China’s shortest-serving defense minister, has not been seen since August.

    Despite these changes, both Qin and Li retained their positions on the Central Committee, the Communist Party’s pivotal 300-member decision-making body. The removal of nine other generals, including two former rocket force commanders, in December over “serious violations of discipline and law” further emphasizes the party’s crackdown on corruption.

    Beijing, however, has provided minimal explanations for these high-profile removals, leaving the status of their successors uncertain. This rare and swift reshuffling of top diplomatic and military positions suggests potential serious wrongdoing, though Beijing has refrained from disclosing specific reasons behind the abrupt changes.

    As thousands of China’s political elite gather in Beijing for the annual session of the national legislature, attention will be riveted on the Great Hall of the People, where observers anticipate significant developments. The skepticism persists among international media outlets, casting doubts on the delayed nature of this year’s “two sessions” and elevating it to a critical juncture for the nation’s leadership. This forum provides a unique opportunity to unveil plans addressing China’s stagnant growth and external challenges. Observers speculate that the delay may be linked, at least partially, to President Xi Jinping’s impending decisions regarding the ongoing purges. The eyes of the world are keenly fixed on these developments, as they carry far-reaching implications for both the nation and its global counterparts.

  • Will the Surge of Farmers Protests Impact Modi’s Hopes for a Third Term?

    Will the Surge of Farmers Protests Impact Modi’s Hopes for a Third Term?

    Over the past decade, only one protest against the Modi government has managed to both astonish and successfully secure the protesters’ demands. The farmers’ protests, a notable demonstration, resulted in the retraction of proposed reforms aimed at significantly altering India’s agricultural landscape. The BJP-led administration found itself caught off guard by the intensity of this protest, which included several months of blockades in the capital, New Delhi.

    In addition to the impactful 2020–21 farmers’ protest, there were various other demonstrations opposing issues such as the triple talaq prohibition bill and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which grants citizenship to Hindu refugees from Pakistan and Bangladesh. Wrestlers in India also expressed their dissent, particularly objecting to the BJP leader’s lack of charges in connection with allegations of rape and harassment of women wrestlers. But, they all failed.

    Even though Modi was able to overcome the farmers’ disapproval, some farmers are starting a new wave of protest against the central government with fresh demands. Is Modi’s political trajectory in India at risk from a group’s protest that mimics the 20–21 protests? 

    At the core of India’s economic structure lies the agricultural sector, serving as the linchpin that sustains not only the country’s 1.5 billion inhabitants but also reverberates globally. Ranging from expansive agricultural holdings owned by influential landholders to the smaller-scale operations of modest farmers, the spectrum is diverse. Despite this disparity, the Indian government is intricately entwined with the fate of its farmers and the agricultural industry. Long held in high esteem alongside the military in the Indian political landscape, farmers witnessed a shift in their standing with the advent of Modi, who redirected focus from agriculture to prioritize the business and service sectors. 

    The introduction of the farmers’ bill, intended to commercialize agriculture, faced vehement opposition from various quarters, including farmers, landlords, communists, and anti-Indian union groups. This collective resistance had a profound impact on Indian politics, compelling the government to backtrack on the proposed legislation.

    The protests that unfolded in 2020–21 were a concerted response to three proposed legislations aimed at relaxing regulations surrounding the pricing, storage, and sale of agricultural produce—regulations that had long served as a protective shield for farmers against the uncertainties of the free market. Farm unions vociferously warned that these measures could have disastrous consequences for the livelihoods of farmers, rendering them vulnerable to the influence of large corporations. Despite months of staunch insistence from the Modi administration that the reforms were in the farmers’ best interest, on November 19, 2021, Mr. Modi announced the repeal of the controversial legislation. Subsequently, the parliament swiftly approved the repealing bill.

    This turn of events was widely hailed as a victory for farmers, showcasing the potent impact of large-scale demonstrations in influencing governmental decisions. However, the triumph was short-lived, as the BJP strategically dismantled the farmer alliance by garnering support from various castes and creating divisions among the farmers along Hindu and Sikh lines. Political parties representing farmers in Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh also played a role in this fragmentation. The BJP effectively neutralized the possibility of a united mass demonstration akin to those witnessed in 2020–21 by abandoning legal reforms and opting for collaboration with the farming community instead.

    As we approach the 2024 general election, certain factions are resurfacing, yet their attempts to reach Delhi have been thwarted. In neighboring states, heavily armed troops have been deployed, even providing grenades and shells to prevent their advance. This development has cast a shadow of uncertainty over established political analyses. Observers recognize that politically motivated protests could emerge as a potent tool to impede Modi’s bid for a third term, especially given his recent electoral victories, a weakened opposition, and the inauguration of the Ayodhya Temple. With elections looming, protesters assert that they are applying pressure on the government to promptly address their concerns.

    While the government and BJP argue that their actions aim to sway public opinion, accusing certain factions of harboring separatist motives, such as the demand for a Sikh nation in Punjab, the protesters reject this narrative. Some BJP leaders have gone to the extent of labeling the demonstrators as terrorists. In this charged political climate, it’s noteworthy that Congress and every opposition party align themselves in support of the farmers.

    Allegations have surfaced that certain BJP members have joined forces to threaten or assault the protesters. Farmers contend that promises made by the government during the 2020–21 protests remain unfulfilled. Additionally, they have called for the government to forgive their debts and provide pensions. Farmers argue for consequences against counterfeit fertilizers, herbicides, and seeds, and urge the government to increase the maximum number of workdays under the rural job guarantee program to 200.

    Furthermore, the demonstrators demand that India renounce all free trade agreements and withdraw from the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is widely acknowledged that these demands may not be met during the period of the current government. Consequently, the BJP claims that this is a political theater orchestrated to discredit Modi.

    Until now, new waves of farmer’s protest have had minimal impact on the Indian public, especially when compared to previous instances. The diminished coverage of protests by the Indian media has contributed to this subdued response. Farmer’s groups and Political parties that represent Farmers like Rashtriya Lok Dal, despite expressing readiness to collaborate with the Modi-led alliance. Several parties had withdrawn their support for the administration in 2020–21 upon recognizing the pulse of ground in that time. However, the current political landscape appears different now. Modi has solidified support from farmer’s groups, successfully redirecting to other issues like Hindutva to captivate the Indian public’s focus. And doubts about the political motivations of these protesting farmer’s groups are now surfacing among the public.

    While Modi’s position may be secure, the methods employed to quell protesters, involving the use of shells, grenades, and drones, raise concerns about the state of democracy within the nation.

  • Saudi Arabia to Host the 2034 World Cup: How Saudi Arabia Evolves as the Leader of Islamic World 

    Saudi Arabia to Host the 2034 World Cup: How Saudi Arabia Evolves as the Leader of Islamic World 

    The football World Cup wields an unparalleled influence that surpasses other major events, be they in business, politics, or culture. The World Cup is not merely a sporting spectacle; it stands as one of the grandest festivals globally, overshadowing even the significance of major events like the Olympics and World Expo. The recently concluded 2022 World Cup final between Lionel Messi’s Argentina and defending champions France, with a reported global viewership of 1.5 billion, underscores its colossal reach.

    However, the reported figure of 1.5 billion viewers is likely an underestimate, given the tournament’s true global impact. Despite Qatar’s limitation to 32 participating teams, the World Cup emerges as a premier tourist attraction. Its ability to capture the collective attention of the world is unmatched.

    Hosting the World Cup is not just a privilege; it transforms into a nexus of business, politics, and international prestige. For the brief duration of one or two months, the host nation becomes the epicenter of the entire world. Qatar, recognizing the transformative potential of this privilege, invested a staggering $220 billion in the 2022 World Cup, surpassing the GDP of many nations. The return on this investment, however, extends beyond mere economic gains.

    Qatar strategically used the World Cup as a global stage, gaining unprecedented attention and featuring prominently on the world map. In that moment, the world became Qatar, and Qatar became the world. At Least people tried to find this small country in the Global map.

    Amid Qatar’s revelry, Saudi Arabia observed keenly, recognizing the World Cup as a unique avenue to attain global attention. Understanding the profound impact this sporting event can have on the international stage, Saudi Arabia discerned an opportunity to achieve their objectives by following in Qatar’s footsteps—by hosting a World Cup of their own. The World Cup’s demonstrated power and allure have turned it into a strategic tool for nations seeking a substantial impact on the global stage.

    Saudi Arabia is poised to take on the monumental task of hosting the 2034 World Cup, a tournament featuring 48 teams and over 100 games. The prospect of significant events and substantial business opportunities awaits the Kingdom. Despite the absence of an official announcement and the absence of contenders, Saudi Arabia stands unchallenged as the sole capable host for this colossal event. Notably, even Qatar, with its eight stadiums, is deemed insufficient to accommodate this 48-team tournament, reinforcing Saudi Arabia’s unique suitability for the task at hand.

    Unlike the cooperative format of the forthcoming World Cups in 2026 and 2030, which will be held in several nations, the 2034 edition will be held exclusively under Saudi Arabia’s exclusive control. The United States, Canada, and Mexico will all co-host the tournament in 2026, with the USA’s economic strength being matched by Mexico’s football tradition and Canada’s stadium infrastructure. In a similar vein, the 2030 edition takes place across six nations, ranging from Spain to Argentina, demonstrating the logistical difficulties involved in accommodating 48 participating nations and organizing over 100 games. 

    While the World Cup may not rival the Olympics in scale, the sheer magnitude of fan engagement surpasses that of the Olympic Games. The organizational efforts required are immense, demanding substantial commitments from participating countries. In this context, Saudi Arabia emerges as the sole bidder for the 2034 World Cup, establishing a compelling case through the creation of a football heritage featuring prominent leagues and big names. Their infrastructure is primed to handle the extensive demands of hosting over 100 games, and their financial prowess positions them to counter any opposition that may arise, aligning with the Kingdom’s aspirations for the global football spectacle.

    Saudi Arabia formally announced its bid to host the 2034 World Cup of soccer on Friday. Since no other expressions of interest were received by FIFA before the deadline late last year, the campaign’s success seems almost guaranteed. In recent years, the Kingdom has made large investments in well-known sports like golf, Formula One, soccer, and boxing, which has led to charges that it is “Sportswashing” its human rights record. 

    The perplexing question arises: why is Saudi Arabia allocating substantial resources to sports? This is particularly noteworthy for a country governed by Sharia law, historically seen as tribal and resistant to human rights considerations until the last few decades. However, Saudi Arabia, amid significant face shifts, is now seeking a foothold in the hospitality, technology, and real estate industries. The investment in sports business is viewed as a strategic move to present a changed image to the world, particularly in light of their endeavors in the global sporting arena.

    Hosting the football World Cup emerges as the pinnacle of this strategy, providing Saudi Arabia with a unique platform to showcase its transformed face to the world. In the span of two months, the Kingdom aims to position itself as a global host, highlighting not only its sporting prowess but also its advancements in hospitality, technology, and real estate—an astute and calculated move in the evolving narrative of Saudi Arabia on the world stage.

    The Qatar World Cup proved to be a strategic loss for Saudi Arabia. At that time, Saudi relations with Qatar were strained, but Qatar leveraged its increased missionary operations and showcased their importance for the U.S. mission within the region. By positioning themselves as mediators in various contentious issues, they subtly sidestepped Saudi Arabia, traditionally considered the global leader of Islam. Qatar’s influence extended through Al Jazeera media and strategic investments in Europe, giving them a certain eminence in the Muslim world.

    When Qatar hosted the World Cup, it elevated them to the global stage. Despite Saudi Arabia hosting major events and the UAE organizing the World Expo, nothing rivaled the impact of the FIFA World Cup. Qatar emerged as the shining star of the Muslim world who are the first world cup hosts from the Muslim world. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, aspiring to reclaim its historical position as the leader of the Islamic world, finds itself in good terms with all major global powers. The nation has made substantial advancements in infrastructure and business, yet the missing piece of the puzzle remains its “image”.

    This is precisely why Saudi Arabia, with its considerable financial resources, is prepared to invest heavily in the upcoming World Cup. The billions flowing into the event are anticipated to  boost their image and also provide a competitive edge over counterparts like Qatar and the UAE in the highly competitive hospitality business. Saudi Arabia has secured a golden opportunity, a chance bought with the currency of ambition. As the wise often proclaim, the path to nobility is paved with the currency of Kings.

  • Iran Legislative Elections 2024: Polls Open for “Ceremonial” Election

    Iran Legislative Elections 2024: Polls Open for “Ceremonial” Election

    The Islamic Republic of Iran is now holding elections for the legislative assembly and the Assembly of Experts. Sixty-two million eligible voters are ready and willing to carry out their civic duties on Friday. Starting at 8:00 a.m. local time, the event is scheduled to last for ten hours. However, historical trends suggest that voting hours may be extended until midnight, just as they have in prior elections. 

    The candidates are obtained by passing through high refinement processes. There are a lot of criteria to contest in the election. Interestingly even though there are tight restrictions to contest, About 15,200 individuals are running for the 290 seats, which is unusual. Candidates face disqualification if found actively supporting the Shah, endorsing political parties or organizations considered illegal, facing charges related to anti-government activities, converting to another faith, renouncing the Islamic faith, being convicted of corruption, treason, fraud, bribery, involvement in drug-related activities, or violating Sharia law. Additionally, candidates are ineligible if they played a role in the pre-1979 government, possess significant land holdings, have a history of drug addiction, hold convictions for actions against the state, or have been charged with apostasy. These stringent criteria underscore the complex eligibility standards aimed at ensuring the suitability and alignment of candidates with the Islamic principles and the state’s interests.

    And Islamic Republic’s election is very interesting because of its lower turnouts. And this time there are a lot of reasons for the lower turnouts. People’s interest in this ceremonial election is very low, questioning even the essence of democracy. A low turnout, reflective of a populace disenchanted and losing hope. The aftermath of Iran’s severe crackdown on protesters, resulting in numerous casualties, injuries, arrests, and even death penalties, has cast a shadow over the political and social milieu. Consequently, the atmosphere has grown more repressive, fostering widespread dissatisfaction among the public. Millions of Iranians, according to many observers, have given up on the idea that the country’s governing mullahs can pull out of an economic catastrophe brought on by a confluence of corruption, incompetence, and U.S. sanctions. Many Iranians may stay at home due to popular outrage about declining living conditions and widespread corruption, even if establishment loyalists are expected to favor hardline candidates.In recent months, the cost of staples including bread, pork, rice, and dairy products has soared. About 40% is the official inflation rate. Over 50% is what analysts and insiders estimate. Since the presidential elections in 2021, the national currency has depreciated sharply against the dollar on the open market. Housing costs have risen, motorists’ fuel quotas have been reduced and prices for internet services increased. The economic pain, blamed by the ruling conservatives on the former administration, has earned the government criticism from all sides. And in the weird political landscape of Islamic Republic, people doesnt have another option, just vote to satisfy the authority’s watch dogs, or be brave and stay out of polling.

    Recent polls conducted by the state television channel indicate a projected national turnout of 41.5%, while a survey from Ispa, a semi-official polling agency, estimates a slightly lower turnout at 38.5%. The conservative establishment’s decision to exclude moderates and reformists from standing within the regime’s ranks during President Ebrahim Raisi’s 2021 election contributed to a turnout below 50%—a departure from the trend observed since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

    Critics, particularly reformists, characterize the elections as “meaningless, non-competitive, unfair, and ineffective in the administration of the country.” This sentiment underscores the prevailing disillusionment with the current state of Iran’s governance. The Twitter hashtags #VOTENoVote are being actively disseminated on social media by Iranian activists and opposition groups, who contend that a high voter turnout will validate the Islamic Republic. Hardliners and subdued conservatives who all pledge allegiance to Iran’s Islamic revolutionary ideals will face off in Friday’s poll, which has been boycotted by mainstream moderates and conservatives and dubbed an “unfree and unfair election” by reformists.   On the international front, U.S. spokesperson Matthew Miller underscored that a significant portion of Iranians harbors no expectation of a free and fair electoral process. He further highlighted the long-standing perception of Iran’s political system as featuring undemocratic, non-transparent administrative, judicial, and electoral systems. The global awareness of these systemic issues amplifies the stakes of the ongoing elections, casting a critical spotlight on Iran’s political trajectory and the public’s perception of its leadership.

    In this occasion call for boycotts , The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been in power for more than 30 years, urged Iranians to cast ballots on Thursday. He claimed that abstaining from voting “would not solve anything”. State media broadcast numerous election specials and launched new channels to feature candidates in an effort to boost voter turnout and excitement in the lead-up to the polls. State media broadcast numerous election specials and launched new channels to feature candidates in an effort to boost voter turnout and excitement in the lead-up to the polls. Though a state-affiliated polling firm is predicting a 41% turnout for the parliamentary elections. 

    In the current electoral proceedings, the landscape is such that the outcomes may not instigate any substantive alterations within the nation, nor do they appear poised to address consequential political ramifications. Despite this, the election holds a heightened degree of fascination, primarily due to its potential role in determining the successor to Khomeni. This figure, vested with the comprehensive authority to shape policies and function as the country’s commander in chief, presides over a nation characterized by a volatile stance towards its neighbors and the United States.

    It is noteworthy that the Parliament, in the broader context, wields limited influence over foreign policy and Iran’s nuclear agenda. The prevailing sentiment is one of disinterest and non-participation, characterizing this electoral episode as yet another Asian drama that seems to mock the essence of democracy. Perhaps, this lukewarm response can be interpreted as a reflection of people’s resentment towards the challenges of life, the formidable economic situation, and the widespread protests that ensued following the tragic demise of Mahsa Amini. Just another electoral act for the sake of an election, nothing more.