Category: Asia

  • North Korea Declares South Korea as the ‘Primary Foe’: Will it mark the end of Unified Korea?

    North Korea Declares South Korea as the ‘Primary Foe’: Will it mark the end of Unified Korea?

    The prospect of a unified Korea appears remote. The Korean Peninsula continues to be separated, housing a shared population in two separate nations: one receiving support from Russia and China, and the other backed by the United States and Japan. Despite some advancements in the last decade, North Korea emphatically dismisses any prospects for future cooperation and negotiations. At the moment, there is a clear division among the politicians of the two nations, highlighting ongoing challenges that impede the reunification of Korea and reminiscent of the sorrowful consequences of sibling strife.

    As per state media reports,  Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, declared on Friday that South Korea has once again become the North’s “primary foe.” He asserted that the nation would be safeguarded through force rather than diplomatic negotiations. Kim said this at a moment when North Korea had recently given up on its long-standing objective of uniting with South Korea. Instead, the North has insisted on formalizing its pledge to “completely occupy” South Korea land in the event of hostilities. Kim stated, “Defining the South Korean puppets as the most harmful primary foe and invariable principal enemy and deciding it as a national policy to occupy their territory in the event of a contingency is a reasonable measure for the eternal safety of our country and the peace and stability of the future.” 

    Kim also called for full-fledged battle readiness and a strengthened military might during a visit to the defense ministry on Thursday to mark the 76th anniversary of the North’s Korean People’s Army’s creation. Rejecting the notion of pursuing peace through discussions, Kim said, “Peace is not something that should be begged for or gained in exchange for talks.” The North, he claimed, no longer saw the need to go through the “unrealistic ordeal” of cooperating and holding negotiations with the South. 

    North Korea has been more aggressive in its criticism of and military provocations against the South in recent times. This is especially true after Kim described inter-Korean relations as that of “two states hostile to each other” at a party end-of-year gathering, claiming that efforts to bring the two Koreas together are pointless.

    North Korea has officially terminated its economic collaboration with South Korea. During a plenary meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly on Wednesday, officials voted unanimously to abolish the law governing inter-Korean economic cooperation. The decision reflects a broader move by the Supreme People’s Assembly to annul all agreements aimed at fostering economic collaboration with South Korea.

    Concurrently, the legislative assembly has passed resolutions to revoke laws associated with economic relations with Seoul, including those governing the once-prominent Mount Kumgang tourism project. This initiative, symbolizing past economic cooperation, had its origins during a period of engagement between the two Koreas in the early 2000s, attracting nearly 2 million South Korean visitors to the scenic mountain just north of the eastern border. This development unfolds against the backdrop of a significant deterioration in relations between the two Koreas.

    Yoon Suk Yeol, the president of South Korea, accepted the “extraordinary change” in North Korea’s inter-Korea policy but said he had trouble understanding the underlying reasoning. Yoon emphasized that, in spite of the change, North Korea has continued to advance communism during the previous 70 years, which has culminated in the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons that might endanger South Korea. Yoon, who is well-known for taking a strong stand against Pyongyang, expressed a willingness to communicate, even suggesting a summit with Kim and providing assistance with finances. He did point out that many view the North Korean leadership as “not a rational group.” 

    The potential reunification of Korea holds the promise of significantly reshaping the regional power dynamics, particularly given South Korea’s current standing as a regional powerhouse. In September 2009, Goldman Sachs conducted an in-depth exploration of the economic implications of a unified Korea in its 188th Global Economics Paper titled “Reassessing North Korea Risks and A United Korea.” The paper offered a comprehensive analysis of the economic strength that a united Korea could command, surpassing several G7 nations, including Canada, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and potentially Japan, within 30–40 years post-reunification. The projected GDP is estimated to exceed $6 trillion by 2050. Key factors identified as propelling this potential growth include the combination of a youthful, skilled labor force and abundant natural resources in the North, coupled with advanced technology, infrastructure, and substantial capital in the South. Additionally, Korea’s strategic location, linking three major economic powers, further contributes to the envisioned economic prowess.

    However, some argue that as long as the country remains divided, people may not be actively concerned about reunification. Surveys in South Korea indicate that younger generations are less preoccupied with this issue compared to their older counterparts, as they are forging distinct identities separate from the North. Meanwhile, the attitudes of North Korean citizens, who are less exposed to the outside world, may also differ significantly, suggesting a preference for maintaining separate entities. It is evident that negotiations and peaceful means alone will not lead to Korean unification. The only foreseeable scenarios for a unified Korea, given recent developments, involve the collapse of communism in the North, the presence of a robust leadership figure from the South, or a notable global conflict.

  • In the Year of the Dragon: Will Luck Shine on China Again After Tough Times?

    In the Year of the Dragon: Will Luck Shine on China Again After Tough Times?

    The excitement surrounding the world’s second-largest economy seems to have recently faded. Despite grappling with various challenges, including economic stagnation, declining birth rates, the relocation of manufacturing projects, and heightened tensions with the United States and India, China is entering the new year with aspirations of reclaiming its stature as a global superpower.

    As the Year of the Dragon commences, bringing a sense of renewal, even within the context of a communist nation, the Chinese people remain steadfast in their adherence to traditional beliefs and horoscopes. This year, traditionally associated with prosperity, holds considerable promise in the eyes of Chinese Culture. Nations following the Chinese zodiac or hosting substantial Overseas Chinese communities often experience a surge in birth rates during the Year of the Dragon. The belief that “Dragon babies” born during this time possess auspicious qualities contributing to improved life outcomes further bolsters the positive outlook.

    Similar to individuals, China eagerly anticipates the approaching year with aspirations for prosperity. The nation aims to liberate itself from the burdens of the pandemic and is prepared to introduce new initiatives, with a focus on revitalizing the Chinese economy and strengthening foreign relationships—an imperative agenda at this critical juncture.

    China strategically invests in various nations through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, but its trajectory is intricately tied to partnerships with Russia and India. The US and EU’s shift away from supporting China’s economic expansion is evident in the reconfiguration of financial flows. Collaborative efforts among these three nations are vital for development, and the future course of China will undoubtedly be shaped by coordinated measures to encourage increased cooperation.

    In contemporary times, China and Russia stand as exceptionally close allies, actively participating in extensive cooperation. This collaboration is strengthening, providing essential support to Russia in navigating the challenging landscape of tight Western sanctions. Additionally, China offers crucial political support amid ongoing Western resolutions concerning Ukraine. Despite their resilience in the face of Western pressure, both China and Russia exhibit a sense of economic unease when confronted with challenges such as losing access to Western markets, technologies, and investments. This constraint gradually impedes their ability to fully leverage their economic potential.

    Putin is heading into the presidential election in March, with the Ukraine war prominently featured in his re-election campaign. His victory is virtually assured. Alongside his electoral focus, Putin closely monitors Russia’s economy for signs of overheating and breakdown. The International Monetary Fund predicts a 1.1% growth this year, primarily fueled by war expenditures, with over 29% of the budget allocated to defense. Persistent inflation and tightening sanctions further strain the economy, even as the energy sector remains robust. However, sustained war and social spending are contingent on oil prices staying above US$50-US$60 per barrel. And China is ready to buy Oil.

    While Xi exudes confidence, he grapples with concerns about the economy, Taiwan, and US-China relations. Surface-level indicators suggest a robust Chinese economy, with a 5.2% growth last year meeting the government’s target. Yet, underlying trends signal potential long-term challenges and stagnation. High deflation, real estate sector issues affecting confidence and investment, declining foreign direct investment, and local debt problems contribute to economic tensions in the provinces. The election of William Lai Ching-te in Taiwan has crushed aspirations for more conciliatory leadership and popular opinion in the country, as it is less advantageous to Beijing. Any Tensions raised in the area, China needs Russia there or Russia is only superpower to help China in Taiwan Issue.

    Another possible challenge for Xi comes from the impending US election; if Trump wins, it might worsen the trade conflict and adversely affect China’s ties with Russia and India. Trump has favorable ties with Putin and Modi. Russia and China united this much only because of the Ukraine War, and Trump can possibly bring a resolution of the war. So any events in the Ukraine War will deteriorate resolution. Putin is still cautious of any signs that China is cutting down on its diplomatic and economic backing for Russia, but Xi will be keeping a careful eye on Russia’s activities in Ukraine and its dealings with North Korea.

    Currently, China and India grapple with a strained relationship, marked by eleven military conflicts. Despite Western support for India, they don’t want to align with Western interests, India is judiciously maintaining a cautious distance in its diplomatic engagements. Recognizing the potential drawbacks of aligning too closely with Western interests, India, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, who initially sought positive relations with China before the Galwan Valley conflict, is now openly critical of China. As Modi faces elections this year, he is likely to continue as India’s Prime Minister. Modi’s commitment to upholding Indian identity, along with his party’s emphasis on Indian principles over Western ones, underscores India’s reluctance to align itself closely with the West in the future. Consequently, it becomes evident that China and India need to foster cooperation in the future. Despite their differences, their shared interest in attaining a global superpower position allows for substantial mutual support. Russia, serving as a common friend to both nations, could play a crucial role in solidifying this relationship in the near future.

    In contrast, recent years have posed challenges for China. However, as the nation transitions from the setbacks reminiscent of a rabbit to the promising Year of the Dragon, optimism prevails. The impending Chinese New Year serves as a symbolic turning point, demonstrating China’s resilience in overcoming adversities. No longer defined by the difficulties of the recent past, China enters its auspicious Year of the Dragon with a renewed sense of purpose, poised to shape a more prosperous future.

  • The Philippines in Crisis: Unveiling the Escalating Political Feud and Its Toll on the State

    The Philippines in Crisis: Unveiling the Escalating Political Feud and Its Toll on the State

    The deepening conflict between the Philippines’ former President Rodrigo Duterte and Incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is steering the nation towards the edge of unprecedented turmoil. The confrontation between Duterte and Marcos Jr. surpasses ordinary political statements; it has evolved into a fracture with the capacity to split the nation, foreshadowing the specter of imminent civil unrest.

    The unexpected fallout between former allies Duterte and Marcos Jr. has left many bewildered. The once-unified coalition that propelled President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to a landslide victory in May 2022 is now unraveling, posing a threat to political stability in one of Asia’s rapidly growing economies. In the 2022 election, Marcos formed an alliance with Duterte’s daughter, Sara, who secured the position of vice-president. However, fractures in this political partnership have surfaced as Marcos deviates from his predecessor’s stances on anti-drugs and foreign policies. At the crux of this discord lies a fierce struggle for power. Duterte’s allegations center on Marcos Jr.’s purported ambitions to modify the constitution, specifically in relation to presidential term limits. Such a move, if proven true, raises concerns about a potential shift towards authoritarianism, echoing the era of Marcos Sr., the father of Marcos Jr.

    The haunting legacy of Marcos Sr.’s autocratic rule looms large over the Philippines, with memories of his oppressive regime, characterized by human rights abuses and economic mismanagement, still casting a shadow. The downfall of his authoritarian grip came during a popular uprising in the 1980s, prompting the establishment of the current constitution as a safeguard against the resurgence of dictatorial tendencies. Today, this constitutional fortress faces a critical test. Amidst this historical backdrop, the reported inclination of Marcos Jr. to amend the constitution raises concerns, given the Philippines’ tumultuous past. President Duterte’s resolute opposition is rooted in a profound fear of history repeating itself, with the nation confronting the unsettling prospect of renewed turmoil and division.

    While Marcos Jr. advocates for constitutional amendments under the banner of economic reform, skeptics perceive this as a thinly veiled maneuver to consolidate power. The potential economic benefits tied to relaxing restrictions on foreign investment spark apprehensions about potential compromises to democratic principles and social cohesion. At the heart of the dispute lies Marcos’s push for a constitutional overhaul in 1987, aiming to attract more foreign investors. However, suspicions within the Duterte camp suggest a more ominous motive: the perceived intent to extend Marcos’s stay in office, challenging the existing single, six-year term limit mandated by the nation’s constitution.

    In a sobering warning, Duterte expresses deep concerns that this growing schism may plunge the nation into a divisive and potentially violent era, drawing parallels to historical events involving the Marcos family. With a heartfelt plea, Duterte implores the armed forces and police to safeguard the constitution, underlining the gravity of a situation that transcends mere political discord. The emotional resonance of Duterte’s plea mirrors the magnitude of the crisis at hand, as the Philippines grapples with a constitutional quagmire propelled by a feud of epic proportions.

    While Sara Duterte has generally maintained a neutral stance amid the dispute between Marcos and her family, analysts caution that alterations to political provisions in the constitution could imperil her political future. Despite being a frontrunner in the 2022 presidential surveys, she aligned with Marcos to run as his vice president, and she is considered an early favorite for the 2028 election to succeed him.

    As per new reports things are getting more volatile. Duterte is now advocating for the secession of his home region, Mindanao, from the Philippines. This push for Mindanao’s independence stems from disagreements with Marcos over proposed changes to the constitution. While Marcos contends that constitutional amendments aim to facilitate foreign investments, Duterte accuses him of using these changes as a ploy to extend his stay in power.

    The 78-year-old former president has not only threatened to sever his native Mindanao region from the nation but has also drawn a stern warning from the country’s defense and security officials. In response to this recent fallout, simmering tensions between the two factions have become evident. The Philippine government is taking a resolute stance against any secession attempts, with a security official asserting their readiness to use “authority and forces” to prevent the division of the nation.

    National security adviser Eduardo Ano emphasized in a statement that any effort to secede, particularly recent calls related to Mindanao, would be met with decisive government force. Ano stressed that such attempts could undermine the progress made through the government’s peace deal with former separatist groups.

    Mindanao in Philippines map

    Mindanao’s tumultuous history is marred by prolonged violence and conflict as the government grapples with insurgents and extremists over the decades. This persistent instability has impeded economic development, resulting in widespread poverty in numerous villages. The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest rebel group in the region, had previously opted for peace, signing an agreement in 2014 that saw them relinquishing their pursuit of independence in exchange for increased autonomy in the Bangsamoro Muslim region.

    Despite the current tensions, Bangsamoro’s chief minister, Ahod Ebrahim, has reiterated a steadfast commitment to the peace agreement. Government peace process adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. has urged Filipinos to resist any calls for destabilization, emphasizing the crucial need for unity. Similarly, Philippine armed forces chief Romeo Brawner has instructed soldiers to remain united, loyal to the constitution, and obedient to the chain of command.

    Yet, should the political landscape further deteriorate, the looming threat of foreign investment withdrawal becomes increasingly pronounced amid the deepening polarization among the populace. Arsenio Balisacan, Marcos’s chief economic planner, echoes these apprehensions, underscoring that political instability has the potential to significantly impact the economy. Despite falling slightly below the government’s target last year, the Philippines achieved the fastest growth in Southeast Asia at an impressive 5.6%.

    Internationally, these disputes will undoubtedly resonate. Both Marcos and Duterte have showcased unique foreign policy orientations, with one forging closer ties to the United States and the other cultivating relationships with China. This expanding tug-of-war, intensifying with each passing day, carries repercussions not just for the Philippines but also for the wider region. Situated in the highly volatile South China Sea, the implications of this geopolitical struggle reverberate across an already precarious landscape.

  • Democracy on Trial: The Hard Journey of Pita and Move Forward Party

    Democracy on Trial: The Hard Journey of Pita and Move Forward Party

    Thailand’s democracy is being tested in the courtrooms. Thailand’s opposition leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, and his Move Forward Party are entangled in significant legal battles that pose a serious threat to the country’s democracy. The situation is critical and demands attention. 

    The country, characterized by its constitutional monarchy, has long been under the influence of both royals and the military, whose allegiance to the kingdom surpasses that to the government. Democratic aspirations received a boost last year through a landmark election that saw Pita Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward Party clinch victory. However, the current trajectory deviates from the nation’s democratic ideals. Increasing legal challenges have led to Pita’s removal from parliament, ensnaring both the party and its leader in a complex web of legal intricacies. Pita’s parliamentary return faces formidable obstacles imposed by the recently established government, which enjoys support from the military and royalists.

    In a recent development, Pita Limjaroenrat and seven other political figures have been handed suspended sentences by a Thai court for orchestrating an unlawful rally in 2019. This legal verdict adds to the hurdles confronting the opposition Move Forward Party, which recently faced a constitutional court ruling against it. The court’s decision highlighted that the party had undermined the monarchy and national security, as it advocated for amendments to the law safeguarding the monarchy from criticism.

    Limjaroenrat’s recent sentencing represents a substantial legal setback. Despite his recent reinstatement as a Member of Parliament, Pita faces potential disqualification should his appeal prove unsuccessful and the courts uphold the verdict. The legal framework in Thailand prohibits individuals convicted of serious crimes from holding parliamentary seats, prompting an organized effort to remove him from office. Charges against him include orchestrating an unlawful rally, and this setback follows a recent Thai court ruling that found his Move Forward party had undermined the monarchy.

    The Move Forward party is now confronted with the imminent threat of dissolution. Legal challenges have escalated in the aftermath of the recent constitutional court ruling, heightening the possibility of bans on the party’s executives from participating in political activities.

    The National Assembly of Thailand, (Ratthasapha in Thai), operates as the bicameral legislative branch of the Thai government Established in 1932 following the adoption of Thailand’s inaugural constitution, the formation of the National Assembly marked the country’s transition from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy. Comprising a Senate and a House of Representatives, the bicameral legislature boasts a total of 750 members. Among them, 500 are directly elected through a general election, constituting the lower house. The remaining 250 Senate members are appointed by the military. Elections in Thailand predominantly adhere to the first-past-the-post system, with 400 House of Representatives members elected through this method. The remaining 100 House members are elected through party list proportional representation.

    In the general elections held on May 14, 2023, to elect 500 House of Representatives members, the Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, surprised analysts by securing the highest number of seats. The Pheu Thai party, also in the opposition, followed closely, having previously won the most seats in the 2011 and 2019 elections. The voter turnout set a record at 75.22%. Despite emerging as a youthful and progressive force, winning the majority of votes and seats in the previous year’s election, Move Forward has encountered obstacles in realizing its agenda. The party’s promises of military reform, dismantling corporate monopolies, and amending the lese-majeste law were met with resistance. Unelected senators, aligned with the military royalist establishment, blocked the party from assuming power. Move Forward’s liberal platform and significant appeal among young and urban voters are perceived as a potential challenge to the established order in Thailand.

    The legal challenges against those perceived as opposing democracy in Thailand extend beyond Pita’s case. Several ongoing cases underscore the tension between supporters of democracy and those aligned with the constitutional monarchy. In a recent development on Monday, a district court in Bangkok issued a suspended four-month prison sentence for two years to six prominent figures associated with Move Forward’s precursor, the now-defunct Future Forward Party (FFP). Additionally, two activists received sentences in connection with the same issue.

    Thailand has long considered criticism of the lese-majesty law and the royal family as a forbidden topic. Pita’s rise to prominence was propelled by mass youth-led protests that called for changes to the monarchy’s role, including the abolition of lese-majesty. However, the authorities resist these changes, leading to charges against the main protest leaders. Over 260 individuals, including children, have faced prosecution under lese-majesty, also known as Article 112 of the criminal code. This law is broadly interpreted, allowing cases to be filed by anyone.

    It is evident that Pita and the Move Forward Party face an uncertain future, with implications for their participation in future elections. However, the people’s desire for democracy persists, and they are likely to rally behind new leaders and parties in the future.

  • Behind the Pardon: Najib’s Sentence Reduced Though Gilt Unchanged

    Behind the Pardon: Najib’s Sentence Reduced Though Gilt Unchanged

    The Federal Territories Pardons Board has formally declared a reduction in the prison sentence for the former Prime Minister, Najib Razak. Following his conviction for embezzling RM42 million from a defunct 1MDB unit, Najib will now serve a shortened sentence. The decision of the Pardons Board is particularly noteworthy, given the pronounced corruption in the case. 

    Najib, a figure of prominence, a former prime minister, and the son of the late Prime Minister Abdul Razak Hussein, held significant roles. He served as the president of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) from November 2008 to May 2018. Additionally, he assumed leadership as the head of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, guiding Malaysia for almost six decades with a parliamentary majority until the defeat in the 2018 general election.

    Najib faces multiple criminal charges, having been on trial since 2020. Simultaneously dealing with three other ongoing criminal cases, he is currently facing trial for 25 counts related to abuse of power and money laundering. These charges involve RM2.28 billion from 1MDB funds deposited into his AmBank accounts between 2011 and 2014. Additionally, he is accused of three charges of money laundering, amounting to RM27 million, through three AmPrivate banking accounts. Collaborating with Irwan Siregar Abdullah, Najib faces six charges linked to the misappropriation of RM6.6 billion in public funds, associated with payments to IPIC, an Abu Dhabi state-owned entity. Commencing his prison sentence in August 2022, the latest resolution indicates that Najib is expected to be released from custody by 2028.

    DAP, the predominant party in the Dewan Rakyat, has urged the public to remain composed in the wake of the Pardons Board’s decision to reduce the sentence of former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. Anthony Loke, the secretary-general of DAP, emphasized that the Pardons Board’s ruling is definitive and not subject to challenge in any court. He clarified that while the decision doesn’t absolve Najib of his conviction, it is a final judgment.

    Acknowledging the discontent among some Pakatan Harapan supporters, Loke affirmed that the Cabinet played no role in the decision, and the Pardons Board’s autonomy should be respected. He added that this development would not impact DAP’s relationship with Umno-Barisan Nasional in the coalition government, although he expressed uncertainty about its effects on the coalition’s prospects in the upcoming general election.

    Loke clarified that existing laws afford every individual, including Najib, the right to seek a pardon for their crimes, specifying that in this instance, Najib was not pardoned. Despite the sentence reduction, Loke emphasized that Najib remains guilty of the charges, and the rationale behind the decision rests solely with the Pardons Board.

    Former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin acknowledged that the board is not obligated to disclose its decision-making process but asserted that doing so would be in the public interest. Given the high-profile nature of the case involving a former prime minister, Khairy emphasized the importance of transparency and suggested that a representative of the board should explain the grounds for the sentence reduction to address the serious concerns of the Malaysian public.

    In Malaysia, each state possesses its own pardons board, appointed by the respective sultan or governor, with the sole exception of the federal territories. In the federal territories, the members are appointed by the King. The Federal Territories Pardons Board, overseen by the King, comprises five members, including the attorney-general, the federal territories minister (currently Dr. Zaliha Mustafa), and up to three others appointed by the King. Pardons Board’s ruling is definitive and not subject to challenge in any court. It is also deemed immoral to disagree with the board’s decision. 

    The pardons board is called upon to elucidate the reasons behind the reduction in Najib’s prison sentence, as the decision has left everyone perplexed. While the decision may be perplexing, it is essential to acknowledge the context within the constitutional monarchy framework. Malaysia, as a nation, has consistently adopted a robust stance against corruption. Consequently, this decision is expected to impact the country’s reputation, raising concerns about its commitment to anti-corruption efforts.

  • Sultan Ibrahim’s Enthronement: A New Chapter for Malaysia’s Monarchy

    Sultan Ibrahim’s Enthronement: A New Chapter for Malaysia’s Monarchy

    Malaysia welcomed a new Sultan in the person of His Majesty Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar of Johor. With a distinctive blend of business acumen, forthrightness, and cultural heritage, Sultan Ibrahim assumed the esteemed role of the new King of Malaysia in a traditional ceremony held at Istana Negara. Simultaneously, Sultan Nazrin Shah of Perak took the oath of office as the Deputy King. Both rulers earned their positions through election by the Malay Rulers during the 263rd (Special) Meeting of the Conference of Rulers in the previous October, embarking on a five-year term.

    The constitutional monarchy system in Malaysia, embraced by the country’s monarchies, is deeply rooted in a political framework that combines elements of the Westminster parliamentary system with features of a federation.

    While Malaysia is among the 43 nations practicing a constitutional monarchy, its unique rotational system sets it apart globally. This system involves the selection of a king from among the nine Malay rulers. The momentous occasion unfolded in the Balairung Seri (Throne Room), where 65-year-old Sultan Ibrahim and 67-year-old Sultan Nazrin Shah pledged their oaths and formally assumed their responsibilities. This took place in the presence of fellow Malay Rulers, Regents, and dignitaries from various sectors.

    Nine states in Malaysia are led by traditional Malay rulers, collectively known as the Malay states. The eligibility for these thrones is restricted by state constitutions to male Malay Muslims of royal lineage. Among these states, seven follow hereditary monarchies based on agnatic primogeniture: Kedah, Kelantan, Johor, Perlis, Pahang, Selangor, and Terengganu. In Perak, the throne rotation involves three branches of the royal family, loosely following agnatic seniority. Negeri Sembilan stands as an elective monarchy, where the ruler is chosen from male members of the royal family by hereditary chiefs. All rulers, with the exception of those in Perlis and Negeri Sembilan, hold the title of Sultan. The ruler of Perlis is addressed as the Raja, while the ruler of Negeri Sembilan is known as the Yang di-Pertuan Besar.

    Every five years, or in the event of a vacancy, the rulers convene in the Conference of Rulers (Malay: Majlis Raja-Raja) to collectively elect the Yang di-Pertuan Agong. This federal constitutional monarch assumes the role of the head of state for Malaysia. Since the Yang di-Pertuan Agong is elected from among the rulers, Malaysia, as a whole, is considered an elective monarchy.

    Each of the nine rulers in Malaysia serves as both the head of state for their respective state and the leader of the Islamic faith within that state. Similar to constitutional monarchs globally, these rulers do not directly engage in the administration of their states. Instead, conventionally, they are obliged to act upon the advice of their state’s head of government, known as the Menteri Besar (plural: Menteri-menteri Besar). While the ruler has discretionary powers in appointing the Menteri Besar, who must command a majority in the state legislative assembly, and can refuse a dissolution of the state assembly upon the Menteri Besar’s request, the monarch’s powers have been progressively restricted over time, though the precise limits remain a subject of debate.

    The Yang di-Pertuan Agong holds the position of the federal head of state in Malaysia and fulfils symbolic roles, including serving as the Commander-in-Chief of the Malaysian Armed Forces and engaging in diplomatic functions like hosting foreign diplomats and representing Malaysia on state visits. Additionally, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong serves as the head of Islam in his own state, the four states without rulers (Penang, Malacca, Sabah, and Sarawak), and the Federal Territories.

    As part of the responsibilities, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong is required to delegate all state powers, excluding the role of the head of Islam, to a regent. Similar to other rulers, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong follows the advice of the Prime Minister, exercising discretionary powers in the appointment of the Prime Minister. The appointed Prime Minister must command a majority in the Dewan Rakyat, the lower house of Parliament.

    Furthermore, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong is involved in the appointment of the Yang di-Pertua Negeri, who serves as ceremonial governors for the four states without rulers. This appointment is made based on the advice of the Prime Minister and the Chief Ministers of the respective states.

    While the sultan may not have a direct role in the country’s governance, they wield significant authority that can shape the political landscape. One crucial authority is the monarch’s power to grant pardons, exemplified in 2018 when Sultan Muhammad V pardoned Anwar Ibrahim, who had previously served a prison term for sodomy-related charges and now holds the position of Malaysia’s prime minister. Amid the escalating feud between Mahathir and Anwar, and mounting cases against Mahathir and allies, the new Sultan Ibrahim assumes importance as a key authority.

    Royal intervention has played a pivotal role in naming prime ministers three times following government collapses and post-election hung parliaments in recent years. Accusations of movements to topple the government highlight the importance of royal intervention in making crucial decisions. In a December interview with Singapore’s The Straits Times, the 65-year-old Sultan expressed his reluctance to be a “puppet king,” emphasizing his alignment with the people rather than being confined to parliamentary dynamics. He asserted his willingness to support the government while reserving the right to voice concerns if he perceives any improper actions.

    Maintaining a close association with Anwar, Sultan Ibrahim has been outspoken on Malaysian political affairs and corruption issues. The Sultan’s role is poised to be significant in shaping the country’s trajectory in the coming years.

  • Philippines-Vietnam Seascape: Marcos Paves the Way for Enhanced Maritime Cooperation

    Philippines-Vietnam Seascape: Marcos Paves the Way for Enhanced Maritime Cooperation

    Nestled in a corner of the Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea is the center of one of the biggest maritime disputes. Every country along its coast is involved in this complex geopolitical struggle. The main point of contention is China’s aggressive attempt to impose severe humiliation on its neighbors by gaining total control over the South China Sea. China’s narrative directly contradicts the territorial integrity of nations like the Philippines and Vietnam, which both have long coastlines along this disputed sea region. 

    The world economy heavily depends on the South China Sea. A staggering $3.4 trillion of the $16 trillion global maritime shipping industry passed through its seas in 2016. This vast territory, which is roughly 3,500,000 km2, is bordered to the north by South China, to the west by Vietnam, to the east by the islands of Taiwan and the Philippines, and to the south by the islands of Indonesia and Malaysia. The South China Sea Islands, which are made up of many archipelago clusters with hundreds of seamounts, islets, and small, uninhabited islands, are the center of conflicting sovereignty claims from various nations. Asia’s most potentially explosive source of conflict arises from these disagreements over the many names given to the islands and the sea. 

    In recent developments, the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is currently on a tour in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, for a crucial meeting aimed at fostering greater collaboration, particularly in the maritime domain. President Marcos announced that talks on maritime cooperation with Vietnam will be a cornerstone in establishing a strategic partnership between the two Southeast Asian nations. Prior to his departure for a two-day state visit to Hanoi, Marcos emphasized his commitment to enhancing this aspect, emphasizing the promotion of peace and stability in the region.

    During his visit, President Marcos is slated to engage with top officials from Vietnam, with a specific focus on agreements related to coastguard collaboration and rice supply. Given Vietnam’s significance as a major rice exporter and the Philippines being one of the world’s largest importers of rice, this collaboration holds strategic importance. It is anticipated that closer ties and collaboration will contribute to the formation of a strong alliance. With two-way trade exceeding US$7.8 billion last year, the trading relationship between Vietnam and the Philippines has become crucial for both nations, and further expansion is expected as their relationship deepens.

    President Marcos expressed optimism that his visit would elevate bilateral relations, ushering in a new era of friendship and cooperation. Beyond maritime affairs, discussions are anticipated to cover a broad spectrum, including trade, investment, education, tourism, and addressing regional as well as multilateral concerns.

    The historical roots of Philippines-Vietnam relations extend back for centuries. Following the conclusion of the Cold War, these relations witnessed a significant warming, despite Vietnam’s alignment with the Soviet Union and the Philippines’ affiliation with the United States during that era. Although territorial disputes over the Spratly Islands persist, involving Brunei, China, Malaysia, and Taiwan, recent bilateral ties have generally been characterized as amicable.

    Both nations disapprove of China’s nine-dash map, and they advocate for a multilateral diplomatic approach, considering the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as a mechanism for dispute resolution. Notably, Vietnam has been drawing closer to Europe and the U.S., prompting some experts to suggest that Vietnam is emerging as the new strategic partner for the West. This shift is not viewed favorably by China, leading to a deterioration in the relationship.

    As Vietnam becomes a more prominent ally of the U.S. in the region, the country seeks to foster stronger ties with Vietnam as part of its strategy to secure allies in the face of China’s increased influence in Southeast Asia. The recent visit by the President of the Philippines can be seen in the context of follow-ups to the visits by the U.S. and German presidents to Hanoi, indicating the intricate diplomatic dynamics at play in the region.

    It represents the optimal partnership that the U.S. seeks in the region to counter China’s aggression. Despite territorial disputes in the Spratlys, both nations consider each other diplomatic allies and members of ASEAN, averting potential military conflicts. Positioned strategically along a vital maritime route, these two countries can economically leverage the current Western sentiments of discontent towards China and potential future trade disputes. For both Vietnam and the Philippines, this situation presents both opportunities and risks concurrently.

  • India’s Lok Sabha Election 2024; Who Will Challenge Modi?

    India’s Lok Sabha Election 2024; Who Will Challenge Modi?

    • General elections are expected to be held in India between April and May 2024 to elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking third term with Bharatiya Janata Party. Opposition yet to choose their leader.

    India, renowned as the world’s largest democracy with a voter base exceeding 800 million, is gearing up to elect its next central government in the ensuing months. The incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Damodar Das Modi, a prominent figure in the realm of Hindu populism, leads his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with confidence through the political landscape. The recent state elections, often likened to semi-finals by the Indian media in anticipation of the Lok Sabha (House of Commons) elections, unveiled a discernible trend. In the prevailing scenario, the continuity of Narendra Modi in the Prime Minister’s office appears highly probable. However, making definitive predictions in the intricate tapestry of Indian elections, influenced by factors such as caste, emotions, and more, carries inherent risks. This article delves into the probabilities, obstacles, and strategies of each national party striving for success in the upcoming “Lok Sabha” elections.

    Lok Sabha Election 2023

    The Election Commission of India (ECI) is poised to unveil the election schedule for the 18th Lok Sabha, the lower house where constituents elect their representatives. The tenure of the 17th Lok Sabha is expected to conclude on June 16, 2024, but the prospect of an early election looms, fueled by the BJP’s heightened support following victories in state elections and a surge in Hindu backing after the Ayodhya Temple Inauguration. With a total of 543 seats, securing 272 forms a majority.

    As the 2024 Indian general elections draw near, the political landscape assumes an increasingly bipolar nature. Two major alliances have taken center stage: the incumbent National Democratic Alliance and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. Six national parties are in contention: Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Bahujan Samaj Party, National People’s Party, and Aam Aadmi Party. All parties, with the exception of the BSP, have aligned themselves with one of the two major alliances.

    India’s Lok Sabha Election 2024; Who Will Challenge Modi?

    Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

    Current Seats: 290 / 543

    Ideology : Hindu Nationalism

    Chances: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) asserts itself as a major political party in India, commanding substantial representation in both the Parliament of India and state legislatures. standing as one of the country’s two major political players alongside the Indian National Congress. Since 2014, it has held the reins of power in India, with Narendra Modi steering the ship as the incumbent Prime Minister. Aligned with right-wing tenets, the BJP maintains intricate ideological and organisational ties with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a volunteer paramilitary group. The party’s policy architecture finds its roots in Hindutva, a Hindu nationalist ideology. 

    The BJP touts various strengths, standing as the largest party, the ruling party, and the most financially robust party, all under the guidance of a strong leadership. Its broad support base is largely a result of Narendra Modi’s enduring popularity. With a well-organised structure, significant support from influential business figures, and minimal internal discord, the BJP presents itself as a potent political force. The party’s strength is further enhanced by initiatives in infrastructure development and the promotion of Hindu fundamentalism. The recent construction of a temple at the Ayodhya site, replacing the Babri Masjid allegedly demolished by former Muslim rulers, has garnered additional support for the BJP. The media also plays a pivotal role by offering substantial support to the party.

    Challenges: Since India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, no leader has secured a consecutive third election victory. In the face of a desire for change, people may opt for a new leader. Despite concerns such as rising prices and unemployment, the BJP skillfully manages to divert attention through Hindu-centric propaganda. The lack of significant challenges from the opposition allows the BJP to maintain its position. However, if opposing political parties successfully unite and strategically split the votes, it could impact the BJP’s chances of securing a clear majority. Nevertheless, the BJP remains the frontrunner with the highest likelihood of forming the government.

    Predicted Seats : 240-270

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    Indian National Congress (INC)

    Current Seats: 47 / 543

    Ideology: Secularism

    Chances: The venerable political institution, the Indian National Congress (INC), commonly known as the Congress Party, holds a significant and extensive presence in Indian politics. Established in 1885, the Congress emerged as the primary driver of the Indian independence movement. Presently, it serves as the principal opposition party, maintaining a widespread presence throughout the country. The Congress raises concerns against the government, citing issues like escalating unemployment, privatisation, price hikes, and growing societal divisions. Despite the backlash facing recent years, there persists a sentiment favouring the Nehru family, and they expect anti-BJP votes have the potential to consolidate through alliances formed with other anti-BJP parties.

    Challenges: In Indian politics, leaders are revered, yet the Congress party faces a dearth of figures who can rival Modi’s charisma. Rahul Gandhi, despite being part of a political lineage, struggles to command the recognition enjoyed by his father and grandmother. Additionally, the growing emphasis on secularism has led to perceptions of the party as more aligned with Islamist ideals. The party grapples with challenges in terms of limited television support and a comparatively weak presence on social media, compounding its issues.

    Predicted Seats: 60-110

    India’s_Lok_Sabha_Election_2024_Who_Will_Challenge_Modi

    Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)

    Current Seats: 8/543

    Ideology: Social Equality

    Chances:The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) stands as a political force on the national stage in India, dedicated to advocating for Bahujans, including Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes (OBC), and religious minorities. Established in 1984 by Kanshi Ram, the party sought to unite the diverse Bahujan communities, which were then divided into more than 1000 different castes.

    Despite facing a challenging phase marked by the absence of state governance, limited presence in various states, minimal representation in the Lok Sabha, and a lack of alignment with major alliances, the BSP still maintains a considerable vote percentage. As the election reaches its final stages, there is potential for the BSP to form an alliance with the Congress-led INDIA alliance. Capitalising on its strongholds in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, and others, the BSP could deliver a robust performance in the Lok Sabha Election.

    Challenges: The decision-making of Mayawati, the supreme leader, is proving detrimental to the party, resulting in a decline in its influence. The party’s footprint is diminishing, and it has not yet formed a significant alliance crucial for competing in the upcoming Lok Sabha election. Challenges include a dearth of policy development, insufficient funding, and a deficiency in strong leadership.

    Seat Prediction: 5-15

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    Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)

    Current Seats: 1/ 543

    Ideology: Populism

    Chances:The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is a political entity in India, established in 2012, by Arvind Kejriwal and his associates in the aftermath of the 2011 Indian anti-corruption movement. Currently, AAP holds the governing position in the Indian state of Punjab and the union territory of Delhi.  In the upcoming Lok Sabha election, the Aam Aadmi Party is participating in collaboration with the Indian National Congress under the INDIA alliance. Through this strategic partnership, AAP aims to consolidate anti-BJP votes.

    Challenges: The party leader, Kejriwal, is facing the potential of being charged in a scam case. Additionally, in Punjab, a key stronghold of the party, there is a lack of cooperation with the Congress, leading to the likelihood of votes being split.

    Seat Prediction: 5-15

    India’s_Lok_Sabha_Election_2024_Who_Will_Challenge_Modi

    Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM)

    Current Seats: 3/ 543

    Ideology: Communism

    Chances: The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) holding the status of the largest communist party in the country both in terms of membership and electoral seats. It stands as one of the national parties of India. The 34-year-long tenure of the CPI(M)-led Left Front in governing West Bengal marked the world’s lengthiest democratically elected communist-led government. The party has, at various times, been the third-largest in parliament. Presently, its prominence is primarily in the state of Kerala. As being a part of the INDIA alliance, the CPIM’s impact is expected to be significant in collecting anti-BJP votes in the contested seats.

    Challenges: The party’s significant presence is confined to Kerala. Workers and supporters have distanced themselves from the party in recent years. In a country marked by deep divisions based on caste and religion, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) stands minimal chances of making a substantial impact across India.

    Seat Prediction: 5-10

    India’s_Lok_Sabha_Election_2024_Who_Will_Challenge_Modi

    National People’s Party (NPP)

    Current Seats: 1/ 543

    Ideology: Cultural Conservatism

    Chances: The National People’s Party is a political party at the national level in India, primarily wielding influence in the state of Meghalaya. Established by P. A. Sangma following his expulsion from the NCP, the party attained national status in 2019, becoming the first political party from Northeastern India to achieve this recognition. The NPP is aligned with the BJP under the NDA alliance. Leveraging support from the Christian community, the party can also capitalise on developmental initiatives introduced by Modi in the region.

    Challenges: The party lacks any election strategies unless it contributes seat to the BJP-led alliance.

    Seat Prediction : 0-1

    In Summary

    The Indian elections take on global significance, given the nation’s status as the world’s fifth-largest economy and the largest democracy by participation. Narendra Modi’s vision includes expanding India’s influence globally, with aspirations for the country to secure its place as the world’s third-largest economy and a formidable global force. Consequently, the election results are bound to resonate beyond India’s borders. Some anticipate that a third term for Narendra Modi could mark a shift towards India’s identity as a Hindu-centric nation, departing from its current status as a modern secular state.

    The election results remain unpredictable, characterised by potential happenings before the election date  and its impact on sentiments of 80 million people. The days leading up to the elections are pivotal, shaping the trajectory of India’s future. In a society where opinions can swiftly shift, particularly in the realm of social media, making definitive forecasts becomes a formidable task. So,  Let’s wait for the biggest election festival of India.

  • Malaysia’s Gig Economy Ambitions: Government to take more Initiatives

    Malaysia’s Gig Economy Ambitions: Government to take more Initiatives

    With Malaysia poised as a significant player in the gig economy, the Malaysian government is proactively pursuing strategies to capitalize on its benefits and address its challenges. Minister of Communications Fahmi Fadzil has given his endorsement to the Umno Supreme Council’s proposal, advocating for the swift establishment of the Malaysia Gig Economy Commission. He plans to present this proposal during the upcoming Cabinet meeting scheduled for next week.

    During the Jiwa Madani Programme in Kampung Sungai Putat, Ayer Keroh, Fahmi Fadzil, in a statement to reporters, emphasized the importance of prioritizing the welfare of gig workers. He expressed that, from his perspective, ensuring the well-being of gig workers is of paramount importance. Fahmi Fadzil has consistently made efforts to support ride-hailing riders to the best of his ability, highlighting his unwavering commitment to this cause.

    Umno Secretary-General Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki confirmed that the Umno Supreme Council unanimously agreed to urge the government to promptly establish the Malaysia Gig Economy Commission. This initiative is designed to ensure the welfare and rights of gig economy workers in Malaysia are effectively safeguarded.

    Malaysia’s gig economy expanded significantly in 2023, bucking predictions that post-pandemic household and corporate activity would decline. In their September 2023 report, “Working Without Borders – The Promise and Peril of Online Gig Work,” the World Bank recognized Malaysia as one of the countries that has effectively used gig labor to increase job accessibility. This expansion is ascribed to heightened cognizance about the potential of digitalization and diverse inducements that facilitate the shift. The market size was RM1.33 billion in the third quarter of 2023. According to Mahadhir Aziz, Chief Executive Officer of Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC), the market size in 3Q 2023 had already reached 80% of the overall market size recorded for the entire year 2022, which was RM1.63 billion. 

    Aziz emphasized that the market’s continued demand, especially from the household and business segments, is indicated by this growth, with a particular focus on micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). He emphasized how different gig economy platform services and solutions are becoming more well known and how they help organizations along their digital transformation journey. The MDEC’s internal examination of the quarterly sharing economy platform report, which focuses exclusively on online labor platforms and excludes other types like money-sharing and goods-sharing platforms, is the basis for determining the market size. The gig economy, freelancing economy, and similar forms are collectively referred to as the “sharing economy”. 

    The lack of social safeguards, equitable pay, and opportunities for upskilling and reskilling gig workers are major concerns, but the true issue facing Malaysia is coming up with a precise definition of the gig economy. Although this would be a fairly promising area for policy for Malaysia, it would require lawmakers and policymakers to have a much better understanding of the nature of the gig economy as well as the realities of the commercial policies, algorithms, and business models of various platforms. 

    Mahadhir, however, stated that other difficulties faced by gig workers in Malaysia this year include a lack of social security and benefits; uncertainty and unpredictability surrounding income and means of subsistence; feelings of loneliness and stress; and an unclear career path. According to Mahadhir, independent contractors frequently do not have the same protections under labor laws and regulations as full-time employees, including minimum wage, employees provident fund (EPF), overtime, medical leave, extended health insurance, and other benefits. Thus, the government has a lot of issues to deal with. 

    For informal workers, the gig economy’s growth is a good thing since it gives them chances to move into more secure and reliable employment. Having access to employment prospects and other perks is a big step forward from the uncertainty these individuals faced before. The government will fulfill the strong demand for safety, rules, and control in this field when it moves to create codes specifically for the gig economy. 

  • Strategic Economic Alliances: Hong Kong and Malaysia Forge Deeper Connections Despite Ongoing US-China Dynamics

    Strategic Economic Alliances: Hong Kong and Malaysia Forge Deeper Connections Despite Ongoing US-China Dynamics

    Amid the challenges of the United States trade war, Hong Kong, the special administrative region of China, is grappling with a backlash. The protests for democracy, viewed as a catalyst for the deterioration of Hong Kong’s standing by the United States, have led to a significant retraction of American businesses from the region. However, China, emerging as a new superpower, is extending support to Hong Kong, ensuring the continuity of trade through the territory. In pursuit of this objective, the new government in Hong Kong is actively fostering stronger ties with Southeast Asia, especially Malaysia.

    In a recent development, at a celebration commemorating the tenth anniversary of the Malaysian Chamber of Commerce, the newly appointed Chief Executive of Hong Kong, a special administrative territory of China, committed to strengthening collaboration between Malaysia and Hong Kong to support free-trade agreements among ASEAN member nations. Malaysia, a crucial member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Hong Kong’s second-largest economic partner, plays a vital role in this initiative. 

    Acknowledging the strategic significance of ASEAN in its comprehensive plans, Hong Kong is actively expanding its corporate engagements. Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu underscored that this pivotal collaboration goes beyond mere trade statistics. He highlighted Hong Kong’s contributions to the Economic and Technical Cooperation Work Programme under the free-trade agreement between ASEAN and Hong Kong, expressing optimism about the future. The event attracted a diverse audience, including ambassadors and representatives from over 30 international trade associations.

    The Malaysian ambassador to China, Norman Bin Muhamad, who was present at the reception, expressed his hope for an intensified relationship between Malaysia and Hong Kong in the future. He emphasized that the success of this ongoing collaboration is a result of sustained and diligent efforts by all stakeholders over the years. He added, “It is our responsibility to ensure the relationship will endure and grow.”

    Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu conducted a week-long tour of ASEAN nations, including Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, last year. During this tour, he oversaw the signing of 33 agreements covering various areas such as trade and commerce, investment and finance, innovation and technology, logistics, academic research, and cultural exchanges. Among these agreements were 11 deals with Malaysia, including a significant railway and property agreement with Hong Kong’s MTR Corporation for a rapid transit project connecting the city of Johor Bahru and Singapore, with an estimated cost of about 10 billion ringgit (US$2.2 billion).

    Anthony Loke, Malaysia’s transport minister, expressed admiration for the property development funding model employed by Hong Kong’s MTR Corporation during the 2023 visit by Chief Executive John Lee’s delegation. Loke indicated openness to expanded collaboration with MTR Corp in various locations across Malaysia. Additionally, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore have endorsed Hong Kong’s membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free-trade bloc, comprising 15 Asia-Pacific countries, including the ASEAN group. During a meeting with consuls general of ASEAN countries, Lee reaffirmed his commitment to fostering closer ties between Hong Kong and the group.

    The prevailing trend in Southeast Asia reflects a growing affinity toward China. The surge of Chinese investments in infrastructure development and technology serves as a clear indicator of a significant shift in the region, where China is gradually assuming a more central role. Notably, Hong Kong is no longer detached from China, and the actions of the Hong Kong premier should be interpreted in conjunction with China’s strategic movements in the region.