Category: Asia

  • Vietnam and China Deepen Party and Government Relations

    Vietnam and China Deepen Party and Government Relations

    China and Vietnam, often considered communist brothers, are unlikely to part ways as many political analysts believe. Instead, they are fostering closer relations between their communist parties and governments. With the passing of Nguyen Phu Trong, one of Vietnam’s influential leaders since Ho Chi Minh, it appears that Vietnam is drawing closer to the Chinese Communist Party and its government.

    Vietnam’s new General Secretary of the Communist Party and President, Tô Lâm, conducted a state visit to China from August 18-20. This marked his first foreign visit since being appointed to the powerful position following the passing of Phu Trong, signaling his prioritization of China. The official welcome, attended by Tô Lâm, his spouse, and a high-level Vietnamese delegation, was held with full honors at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Monday. The ceremony was presided over by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and President of China, along with his spouse.

    The event featured a notable presence of senior leaders from both the Chinese government and the Communist Party. Attendees included Cai Qi, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, Secretary of the Secretariat, and Director of the General Office of the CPC; Wang Yi, Politburo member, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, and Minister of Foreign Affairs; Wang Xiaohong, State Councilor and Minister of Public Security; Liu Jianchao, Head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee; Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission; Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology; and Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, among others. The presence of these high-ranking officials underscores the significance of the visit and Several agreements are anticipated from the visit, which could benefit Vietnam, particularly as China seeks greater cooperation with Vietnam amid its ongoing tensions with the United States.

    Both sides expressed satisfaction with the historic advancement of their relationship, which has reached an unprecedented level of intensity, comprehensiveness, and substance. Notable achievements include strengthened political trust, elevated bilateral ties, regular exchanges and contacts at all levels, robust trade collaboration, significant growth in Chinese investments in Vietnam, a strong recovery in tourism, and enhanced local and people-to-people cooperation.

    President Lâm welcomed China’s participation in three standard-gauge railway projects linking the two countries, including the Vientiane–Vũng Áng railway and the metro system in Hanoi. He encouraged China to continue expanding its market for high-quality Vietnamese farm products and to support the establishment of Vietnam’s Consulate General in Chongqing and trade promotion offices in China. Additionally, he proposed that China accelerate large-scale, high-quality investments in Vietnam, implement smart border gates, consider local currency payment cooperation, and enhance collaboration in science and technology, innovation, green transition, digital transformation, and high-tech agriculture. Vietnam hopes China will favorably consider these proposals, particularly in light of its general hesitation towards foreign investments from the West.

    Agreeing with Lâm, Li emphasized the need for both countries to maintain their cooperative structure and focus on win-win development. Li also highlighted efforts to improve rail connections between Vietnam and Europe via China, expedite the feasibility study for the Lào Cai–Hà Nội–Hải Phòng railway, plan the Đồng Đăng–Hà Nội and Móng Cái–Hạ Long–Hải Phòng railways, and facilitate the entry of high-quality Vietnamese agro-fishery products into China.

    Recognizing the significant potential for cooperation between their countries, the two leaders agreed to work together to enhance political and economic confidence and build a Việt Nam-China community with a shared future of strategic importance. They aim to advance bilateral relations to a new level based on the six major orientations, maintain regular communication at all levels, and promote exchanges and cooperation through Party, Government, National Assembly/National People’s Congress, and Fatherland Front/People’s Political Consultative Conference channels.

    While former Party Secretary of Vietnam Nguyễn Phú Trọng engaged with many Western countries, including the United States, and attracted investments from nations such as Germany, many expected Vietnam to align with the U.S. and Japan, which are positioning themselves against China in the region. However, recent diplomatic actions by the Communist Party of Vietnam indicate that, despite disagreements over South China Sea territories, Vietnam remains closely aligned with the Chinese Communist Party. This collaboration could negatively influence the United States by enhancing China’s regional position. As China extends its influence in the South China Sea, it may secure a strategic advantage.

  • China and the Philippines Collide Again

    China and the Philippines Collide Again

    China and the Philippines, long at odds over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, found themselves in conflict once again. On Monday, Chinese and Philippine vessels collided during a confrontation near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, according to statements from both countries. As expected, each side blamed the other for the incident near the Sabina Shoal, which is very close to the Philippines but claimed by all parties with stakes in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines reported that two of its coast guard vessels were damaged by China’s unlawful maneuvers, while Beijing claimed it took control measures after the vessels allegedly entered waters around the shoal illegally. China’s claim to nearly the entire South China Sea, a crucial trade route, continues to fuel tensions, with the dispute further complicated by the region’s strategic importance.

    China and the Philippines Collide Again

    Although both parties are avoiding casualties and showing restraint to prevent a broader conflict, China and the Philippines have repeatedly clashed in the vital waterway in recent months. These confrontations include disputes over a warship that was grounded years ago by Manila on the contested Second Thomas Shoal, where a garrison is stationed – a strategic move by the Philippines. Despite an international tribunal ruling that China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea have no legal basis, Beijing continues to assert its dominance in the region. The Philippines, however, maintains its claim to the rusted, grounded ship, a move that China strongly opposes and views as a provocative action.\

    Both sides avoided taking responsibility for the recent collision. China Coast Guard spokesperson Geng Yu accused a Philippine vessel of deliberately colliding with a Chinese ship early on Monday. He stated that the Philippine coast guard vessels had illegally entered waters near the Xianbin Reef in the Nansha Islands without Chinese government permission, using the Chinese names for the Sabina Shoal and the Spratly Islands. China claims the Sabina Shoal, located 140 km (86 miles) west of the Philippine island of Palawan, and over 1,000 km from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan Island. Geng added that the China Coast Guard took control measures against the Philippine vessels in accordance with the law. He also accused the Philippine vessels of acting in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, leading to a glancing collision. Geng sternly warned the Philippine side to immediately cease its infringements and provocations.

    Meanwhile, Manila’s National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea reported that two of its coast guard ships sustained damage in collisions with Chinese vessels conducting unlawful and aggressive maneuvers near the Sabina Shoal. The confrontation resulted in structural damage to both Philippine Coast Guard vessels, according to Manila.
    In recent months, both Manila and Beijing have stationed coast guard vessels around the shoal, with the Philippines concerned that China might build an artificial island there, while China fears the Philippines will deposit additional ships to strengthen its claim. Footage purportedly showing the incident, attributed to the Chinese coast guard and shared by state broadcaster CCTV, depicts a Philippine vessel appearing to collide with the left side of a Chinese ship before moving away. Another 15-second clip seems to show the Chinese vessel making contact with the rear of the Philippine ship. Captions with the footage claimed that the Philippine ship made a sudden change of direction, causing the collision. Additionally, a second Philippine coast guard ship, the BRP Bagacay, was reportedly rammed twice by a Chinese coast guard vessel about 15 minutes later, resulting in minor structural damage, according to Malaya.

    The repeated clashes in the South China Sea have raised concerns that Manila’s ally, the United States, could be drawn into the conflict as Beijing escalates its efforts to assert its claims in the region. The Filipino crew involved in the recent incident were unharmed and continued their mission to resupply Philippine-garrisoned islands in the Spratly group, which reduces the likelihood of direct U.S. involvement. However, analysts warn that Beijing’s strategy appears to involve advancing from the Second Thomas Shoal toward the Sabina Shoal, encroaching on Manila’s exclusive economic zone and normalizing Chinese control of the area. This situation is increasingly alarming for the Philippines, and the potential for serious escalation remains high and could eventually involve the United States.

  • How Mass Protests Are Shaking Bengal Politics

    How Mass Protests Are Shaking Bengal Politics

    West Bengal, India’s region of Bengal, is witnessing mass protests following unrest in neighboring Bangladesh that led to the toppling of its government. The protests in West Bengal were triggered by the brutal rape and murder of a junior doctor at Kolkata’s medical college and have shocked the nation. Although India’s police system is relatively strong and the protests have not descended into the same level of violence or anarchy seen in Bangladesh, the ongoing protests have become a significant challenge for the Bengal government, led by the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC). The AITC has been a fierce critic of Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led central government. The BJP has decided to leverage the situation to its advantage, and central agencies have stepped in to investigate. With nationwide criticism continuing ten days after the incident, many believe the unrest could further destabilize the state government.

    West Bengal, the eastern state of India formed after the division of Muslim-majority areas into Pakistan and later Bangladesh, has long claimed to be one of the most culturally influential regions, particularly in its reverence for the Hindu female deity Kali. The state asserts itself as the true heir of Bengali identity, a language-based identity that is gender-neutral, unlike many other Indian languages. Unfortunately, Bengal is now also known for an increase in crimes targeting women.

    The situation became notably concerning under Mamata Banerjee, the state’s female chief minister and founder of the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), who rose to prominence as one of India’s most influential political figures. Despite her strong position in elections, Banerjee has consistently faced criticism for failing to maintain law and order in the state. Gang rapes have become frequent, and the sensational case involving Sandesh Kahli, where an AITC leader was implicated in organized crimes against women with substantial support from local machinery, has highlighted these issues. Additionally, reports indicate that Muslim women in the state, many of whom migrated from Bangladesh, have faced violations of their basic civil rights. Government intervention has often been lacking, partly due to the political need of AITC to maintain support from the Muslim vote bank.

    The recent brutal attack on a doctor has intensified national attention, exposing attempts by the AITC government and authorities to cover up such incidents. Protests have erupted across West Bengal, with Kolkata, the state capital, emerging as the epicenter. Long marches and clashes between AITC supporters and protesters have disrupted daily life in Kolkata, one of India’s largest metropolitan areas.

    West Bengal’s political landscape is currently divided between the Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), which forms the state government, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is now the opposition in the state and leads the central government. The previous major players, the Communist Party of India and the Indian National Congress, have been ousted from the state, leaving the voter base split between the AITC and the BJP. The AITC now holds the secular and Islamist vote banks, while the BJP attracts Hindu nationalist votes. In previous contests, Mamata Banerjee and her AITC have been victorious, including in the last general elections.

    Political analysts are divided on the impact of the ongoing protests in Bengal politics. Some believe that the firm support of the Islamist community will provide Mamata Banerjee with momentum, as the BJP struggles to expand beyond Hindu votes and other parties that could have split the AITC’s vote base are currently inactive in West Bengal. However, some analysts predict that the reaction to these emotionally charged issues could mirror past events, such as the Nandigram firing incident that led to the ousting of the Communist Party, potentially leading to a similar fate for the AITC.

    The governor of the state, a representative of the central government, declared that West Bengal is not a safe place for women. Many believe this move could prompt the central government and the president to dissolve the state government and impose presidential rule, according to Article 356 of the Indian Constitution. BJP leaders, workers, and some pro-BJP figures are advocating for this action. From a political perspective, this represents a significant opportunity for the BJP, which has struggled to gain power in the last three assembly elections due to the firm support of Muslim votes for the AITC.

    The unrest in West Bengal poses severe security issues for India, particularly given the large number of Bangladeshis in the state and its history of Hindu-Muslim conflict. The central government fears that dissolving the West Bengal government could lead to further anarchy, similar to the situation in Kashmir. However, this situation has clearly shaken the West Bengal government, forcing Mamata Banerjee to take strong actions. The future of the protests will likely determine the fate of the West Bengal government, Mamata Banerjee and the All India Trinamool Congress.

  • Thailand Gets a New Prime Minister From an Influential Political Dynasty

    Thailand Gets a New Prime Minister From an Influential Political Dynasty

    Amid turbulent times in Thai politics, Thailand has appointed a new, young, and inexperienced prime minister from a very influential political dynasty. With political power largely removed from the hands of the people and focused on preserving the constitutional monarchy, the situation became more complicated after the constitutional court ousted the previous prime minister, Srettha, on dubious charges. In response, the remaining politicians, after various bans in the legislative assembly, acted rapidly under the leadership of billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to prevent division and military rule. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, has now been chosen as Thailand’s next prime minister after securing enough support from lawmakers.

    Paetongtarn, 37, the youngest of three children of the controversial political figure Thaksin Shinawatra, will become Thailand’s youngest and only the second female prime minister. Her appointment on Friday followed 24 hours of intense negotiations. Speaking on Thursday after being named Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate, Paetongtarn expressed her respect for the ousted Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, acknowledging the unfortunate circumstances of his departure and emphasizing the need for the country to progress. However, analysts are skeptical, suggesting that her appointment may have been orchestrated by authorities and the Thaksin family. The Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, won the last general election but was subsequently banned by authorities due to its reformist stance. Despite the court’s decision to finalize the ban, the public remains supportive of MFP. By allowing Thaksin’s return, authorities hoped to mitigate public discontent. Young charming woman leader is definitely a good choice to deliver this hope.  Paetongtarn played a significant role in Pheu Thai’s election campaign, leveraging her family’s popularity among older rural voters in the north and northeast. Although her party finished second in the election behind Pita’s Move Forward Party, she did not run for prime minister last year. According to power brokers, she may now be ready for the role.

    Paetongtarn is the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to become prime minister, underscoring the family’s significant influence in Thai politics. However, she faces the challenge of leading a country that has moved beyond her father’s era. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006 before being ousted in a coup. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, was briefly prime minister in 2008, and his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, held the position from 2011 to 2014, both being forced from office by court rulings. Following his political setbacks, Thaksin went into self-imposed exile that stretched 15 years to avoid imprisonment and returned only recently. Many believe that through Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s influence will continue to shape the country’s leadership.

    Despite being Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn must prove herself as she takes office amidst significant political instability. Lacking prior government experience, she needed to secure 247 votes from the 493 members of parliament for confirmation. Although she achieved this, her tenure remains uncertain, and she could be dismissed at any moment, similar to her predecessors and other family members. Additionally, she faces challenges not only from the authorities but also from reformists who may form new parties and leadership to gain significant public support. Paetongtarn is in for a challenging journey ahead.

  • Thailand’s Political Drama Seeks New Actor for Prime Minister Role

    Thailand’s Political Drama Seeks New Actor for Prime Minister Role

    Thailand’s constitutional monarchy is viewed by observers as an ongoing political drama full of twists and turns. In the latest episode, the caretaker government’s prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, was ousted by the court for breaching ethical standards. This occurred just days after the constitutional court issued a high-profile verdict banning the political party and leaders who won the majority in the general election under lese-majeste laws.

    The coalition government was formed with the full support of royal establishments and authorities after overturning last year’s election results. This movement was backed by the courts, which effectively nullified the people’s verdict by law. The caretaker government, led by Srettha Thavisin, never garnered public support and is now facing a forced leadership change in an effort to regain public backing. The constitutional court ruled that Srettha had seriously violated ethical standards by appointing Thaksin’s former lawyer, Pichit Chuenban, to a cabinet position. Pichit was briefly imprisoned for contempt of court in 2008 over an unproven allegation of attempting to bribe court staff. Now, the leading party in the coalition, the Pheu Thai Party, has been tasked with finding a new prime minister.

    The Pheu Thai Party, a populist party lacking the reformist drive of Pita’s Move Forward Party, will convene on Thursday to select a successor for the ousted former prime minister, Srettha Thavisin. The party is working swiftly to strengthen its alliance ahead of a critical parliamentary vote on a new prime minister. Pheu Thai must choose between two candidates: Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney-general and justice minister, and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of controversial political figure Thaksin Shinawatra, who is also the party’s inexperienced leader.

    The constitutional court’s decision to dismiss Srettha on Wednesday not only dealt a significant blow to Pheu Thai but also to the political influence of the billionaire Shinawatra family, which has been at odds with Thailand’s powerful establishment and royalist military for two decades. Interestingly, Srettha is now the fourth premier from this movement to be ousted by a court ruling, and his removal may signal the end of a fragile truce between Thaksin and his opponents in the conservative elite and military establishment—a truce that had enabled the tycoon’s return from self-exile in 2023 and paved the way for Srettha’s rise to the premiership on the same day.

    Pheu Thai has acted swiftly to maintain its advantage, with media broadcasting live images late Wednesday of its coalition partners visiting the residence of its founder and influential figurehead, 75-year-old Thaksin. They aim to be decisive – any delay could lead to more infighting and power struggles, so the sooner they can hold a vote, the better. A quicker vote would make it easier to manage the process and control the outcome in the house.

    The convening of parliament less than 48 hours after Srettha’s dismissal stands in sharp contrast to last year, when it took two months for the lower house to convene and vote on a new premier following an election. At that time, lawmakers aligned with the military had united to block the anti-establishment election winner Move Forward from forming a government, but they later supported Srettha and Pheu Thai in a subsequent vote six weeks later. The 11-party Pheu Thai alliance, which holds 314 house seats, should have no trouble electing a prime minister on Friday, provided it remains united. A candidate must gain the support of more than half of the current 493 lawmakers to be elected as prime minister.

    Pheu Thai faces a crucial decision: whether to choose party veteran Chaikasem or take a gamble on newcomer Paetongtarn, despite the risk of triggering a backlash similar to the one that led to her father and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra being ousted in coups before fleeing into exile to avoid imprisonment. They will likely choose a successor soon, but the political drama is far from over, and it will continue until the people ultimately determine the final outcome. And after all, Bangladesh is not so far from Bangkok.

  • Japan to Get New Prime Minister as Fumio Kishida Steps Down

    Japan to Get New Prime Minister as Fumio Kishida Steps Down

    Japan is poised for another prime ministerial change as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who took office two years ago, has decided to step down in September. With Japan’s next general election scheduled for October 31, 2025, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is making every effort to restore its image with the public, considering a prime ministerial change as part of this move. The current government and prime minister have a poor reputation among the public, according to polls.

    Kishida, 67, made a surprise announcement on Wednesday that he would step down as LDP leader in September and would not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) next month. His decision concludes a three-year tenure defined by scandal, escalating living costs, and unprecedented defense spending. Media reports suggest that Kishida faced pressure from within the LDP, with some members doubting his ability to lead the party to electoral victories. The party has struggled to manage rising criticism over the funding scandal, while soaring prices have left his cabinet’s support levels hovering around 25% this year, occasionally dipping below 20%.

    Conservative yet named liberal, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has no shortage of potential leaders. Among the likely successors are Shigeru Ishiba, a centrist and former defense secretary, and Taro Kono, the charismatic digital minister. The race for the LDP presidency may also feature female candidates, raising the possibility that Japan could have its first female prime minister. Ultra-conservative economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and former internal affairs minister Seiko Noda, both of whom ran against Kishida in the 2021 leadership race, might consider running again, though it’s unclear if either can secure the support of the 20 lawmakers needed to enter the race. Foreign minister Yoko Kamikawa is also mentioned as a potential candidate. The leader selected in next month’s party polls will become the new prime minister. 

    Kishida was elected president of the LDP in September 2021 for a three-year term, and went on to win a general election. Under his leadership, Japan bolstered its alliances with U.S. partners to address China’s expanding influence. However, public dissatisfaction increased due to the LDP’s links with the former Unification Church, which became evident after Abe’s assassination. Additionally, scandals involving slush funds and the yen’s decline, which contributed to inflation, further eroded trust. Kishida also faced criticism for failing to ensure that wages kept up with rising living costs as Japan moved past years of deflation.

    Kishida’s successor will be Japan’s third prime minister since Shinzo Abe, the longest-serving leader in the country’s history, stepped down in September 2020. Although the new prime minister will have the advantage of a strong LDP majority in parliament, he will need to prove his capability to secure a longer term. The incoming leader will face increasing international uncertainty, including the election of a new U.S. president, and growing domestic concerns over the cost of living crisis. Opposition parties are likely to intensify their campaigns, given their current best opportunity to challenge the administration after being out of power since Abe’s first term in 2012. 

    Japan is in urgent need of strong leadership amid rising threats from China, shifting U.S. leadership, and a declining economy. Therefore, the LDP’s upcoming election is a crucial event for both Japan and Asia.

  • Myanmar Junta in Trouble as Rebels Seize Strategic Military Base

    Myanmar Junta in Trouble as Rebels Seize Strategic Military Base

    The civil war in Myanmar, involving the military junta and an alliance of ethnic armies, is intensifying. The junta, formed after the 2021 coup d’état, is losing more territory to ethnic tribal armies, which are advocating for democracy despite their previous conflicts with Myanmar’s democratic governments. The coup and subsequent suppression united these ethnic armies, leading to the formation of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which is now waging war against the junta.

    In a recent development, ethnic rebels in Myanmar have captured a key military base, the army’s Northeast Command in Lashio, dealing a significant blow to the military junta. This is seen as the biggest setback for Myanmar’s military government this year. The fall of Lashio’s Northeast Command underscores the growing strength and confidence of opposition forces, putting the military junta in a difficult position.

    Lashio, the largest town in Shan State, Myanmar’s biggest state, lies just 110 km from the Chinese border. As an important trading hub, Lashio will provide political and economic benefits to the opposition. Losing control of this town and state could be the junta’s most significant defeat. The MNDAA has been targeting Lashio since launching its offensive in October, initially facing several setbacks. However, among Myanmar’s 14 regional commands, the Northeast Command in Lashio is the first to fall to armed resistance groups.

    The situation is dire for the junta, as the military had recently reinforced the Lashio base with around 3,000 troops. Yet, within a month, the base fell, leading to the surrender of over 1,000 soldiers. The commander of the Northeast Military Region, along with his two brigadier-general deputies, has been captured, marking them as the highest-ranking prisoners of war to date. This setback raises concerns that the ruling military council might have to abandon its efforts to hold contested territories and concentrate on defending the central heartland. It may also increase discontent with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power by overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. Doubts are growing about whether the Army can continue to function effectively under his leadership.

    On Monday, Myanmar’s military regime acknowledged losing communication with the commanders of a strategically important Army headquarters in the northeast, lending credibility to claims from a militia group that it had captured the base. Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for Myanmar’s ruling military council, said in an audio statement on state-run MRTV television that contact was lost with the Northeastern Command headquarters on Saturday night and that there were unconfirmed reports of some commanders being arrested by the MNDAA. Min also noted that the alliance was receiving weapons, including drones and short-range missiles, from unidentified foreign sources.

    The situation has remained difficult for the military junta since last year. In October, through a campaign called Operation 1027, the MNDAA captured large areas of territory along the border with China, including numerous townships and hundreds of junta-held posts. While the MNDAA had previously taken a regional military headquarters in Laukkaing, a key city on the Chinese border, the capture of the Lashio headquarters is even more significant. Many political analysts believe that the success of recent attacks in Shan State will boost the confidence of other factions in Myanmar, with reports indicating that the Arakan Army in the Rakhine state is increasing its strikes.

    The civil war in Myanmar has claimed the lives of over 5,000 civilians since 2021. Millions have been displaced internally, and the country’s economy is in tatters. The conflict is escalating, especially in Shan State and western Myanmar. According to Myanmar’s National Unity Government, a coalition of ousted democratically elected lawmakers seeking to establish a parallel government, resistance forces controlled over 60% of the nation’s territory prior to the capture of Lashio. There is speculation that the fighting may intensify and spread as opposition groups target towns and cities long regarded as military strongholds, such as Myawaddy and Mandalay. Mandalay, an economic and cultural hub, is located just over 200 kilometers from Lashio. Additionally, Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, faced an unprecedented attack that month when armed groups launched drone strikes and targeted military installations in the city. So, it looks like Junta is in big trouble. 

  • Thailand Outlaws Popular Progressive Party

    Thailand Outlaws Popular Progressive Party

    Thailand, the constitutional monarchy, once again failed its people. From the day the Move Forward Party, which aims to scrap outdated laws like lese majeste from the Thai constitution, came to light, the authorities have been working to bring it down. Even though the people voted for them and gave them the most seats in last year’s general election, they were denied administration. The party faced many cases, and finally, Thailand’s constitutional court ordered the dissolution of the country’s most popular and promising youth-led party, banning its leaders from politics for ten years over their election promise to reform the country’s strict and often cruel lese-majesty law. It seems the country doesn’t look for any chance to “move forward ”, despite people craving progress.

    On Wednesday, the constitutional court unanimously decided to dissolve the party and ban its executive committee, including its charismatic leader Pita Limjaroenrat, from politics for ten years. This decision followed a ruling by the same court in January, which declared the party’s pledge to reform the lese-majesty law unlawful and demanded an end to such efforts. Speaking at the party’s headquarters after the verdict, Pita stated that their movement would continue and that a new party and leadership would be established. The successor party, which Move Forward MPs will join, is expected to be announced on Friday.

    Thailand’s courts have often dissolved political parties and banned politicians, and the country has faced two coups since 2006 as part of a continuing power struggle between popular parties and the conservative establishment. Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, was dissolved by a court ruling in 2020 for allegedly violating election funding rules, a decision its supporters argued was politically motivated to remove them from the political landscape. The ruling sparked mass youth-led protests demanding democratic reforms and breaking a longstanding taboo by calling for changes to the royal family. Since then, at least 272 people have been charged with lese-majesty. In May, political activist Netiporn Sanae-sangkhom, 28, who was charged under the law, died in pre-trial detention after a 65-day hunger strike protesting the imprisonment of political dissidents.

    Although the dissolution might anger millions of young and urban voters who supported Move Forward and its progressive agenda, the ruling’s impact may be minimal, with only its 11 party executives facing 10-year political bans. Consequently, mass protests similar to those in 2020 may not occur. Hours after the ruling, Move Forward’s leaders announced that the remaining 143 lawmakers would establish a new party on Friday, similar to the response in 2020 when Future Forward, their predecessor, was dissolved.

    In Thailand, individuals have faced prosecution for making political speeches, wearing clothing considered to impersonate the royals, or selling satirical cartoons, all under Article 112 of Thailand’s criminal code, known as lese-majeste. In recent years, criticism of this law has grown, largely due to the mass protests that erupted in 2020. During these protests, young people demanded democratic reforms and challenged a deeply ingrained taboo by calling for changes to the monarchy’s role in public life.  their key demand was the abolition of the lese-majeste law. 

    It looks like Thailand’s youth politicians will not compromise with the authorities, and they have the support of the people, as evidenced by last year’s voter turnout. It is clear that a new party with new leadership but the same ideology will emerge in the next election. Sirikanya Tansakun, who is seen as a potential future leader, stated that while the party’s ideology would be preserved, its strategy would be dynamic and adaptable. Even if the constitutional authorities prevent them from participating in the administration and impose bans, the youth, including many from Gen Z who are globally connected through the internet, are not backing down. This cycle will continue until the people dismantle the authority. The constitutional monarchy is an absolute disgrace in the 21st century.

  • Iran Is Forced, But Are They Capable?

    Iran Is Forced, But Are They Capable?

    Iran is deeply humiliated by Israel’s killing of the Hamas chief in Tehran. Although it was anticipated that Israel might target him, the attack did not occur while he was in Gaza or Qatar. Instead, Israel chose to act when he arrived in Iran for the new president’s inauguration. As a major player in the Islamic world and the only country actively opposing Israel, Iran views this as a significant humiliation. This incident is not unprecedented; Israel has previously targeted several high-ranking Iranian officials, and some experts even speculate that Ebrahim Raisi might be a target. Iran’s regime feels compelled to retaliate to maintain its strong image domestically and its status as a defender of Islam globally. While previous responses have involved ceremonial missile launches, such a response may no longer suffice. But are they capable?

    Iran is undeniably a superpower in the Middle East, boasting a formidable military force. As of 2024, the Iranian Armed Forces are the second-largest in the region, surpassed only by the Egyptian Armed Forces in terms of active troops. Iran’s military consists of approximately 425,000 active-duty personnel and an additional 100,000 reserves and trained personnel available when needed. These numbers do not include the Law Enforcement Command or the Basij. Despite its numerical advantage over Israel, Iran faces more challenges than opportunities. 

    Most of Iran’s imported weapons are American systems acquired during the shah’s regime before the Islamic Revolution. Following international sanctions, Iran initiated a strong domestic rearmament program, resulting in an increasingly indigenous military inventory. By the 2000s, Iran had become an exporter of arms, although the effectiveness of its domestically manufactured items remains. The country has invested significantly in an ambitious ballistic and cruise missile program to enhance its mid-range strike capability, though updates on its progress are scarce. Additionally, Iran produces a variety of arms and munitions, including tanks, armored vehicles, drones, and an array of naval assets and aerial defense systems, which could be crucial in a conflict.

    Iran has purchased some munitions from Russia in addition to its indigenous weapons. However, since Russia is currently at war, it cannot meet Iran’s demand. It is uncertain whether other superpowers in Asia, such as China and India, will supply munitions to Iran. Supplying munitions would likely invite U.S. sanctions, so Islamic countries will probably refrain from doing so.

    The biggest challenge for Iran is that it does not share a border with Israel, so the size of its army does not provide an advantage. War through waterways is possible, but on all the routes through land and sea, U.S. allies are present and will likely stop them. Through the air, missiles are available, and they have been launched at Israel before, but Israel successfully blocked them. The only way that might work for Iran now is a joint attack with its allies in the region. However, there are doubts that these countries will cooperate with Iran now because they would suffer more than Iran if they intervened. However, it is certain that militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen will fight alongside Iran, and a joint attack with them is the only possibility for Iran. Iran is trying its best to partner with Islamic countries.

    Iran has called in foreign ambassadors to Tehran to assert its moral duty to hold Israel accountable for what it views as provocations and violations of international law following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Tehran has also requested an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Wednesday to seek backing from Arab states for potential retaliatory measures against Israel. Many Gulf leaders have expressed their condemnation of Israel’s actions but are advising Iran to show restraint.

    Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Security Council Secretary, arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iranian leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian. While discussions are advancing quickly, it remains uncertain how many countries will support Iran in its war against Israel.

    Experts suggest that Iran is striving to maintain its image. To potentially promote peace, the U.S. might indirectly assist Iran by allowing a token attack, enabling Iran to claim retaliation. Iran could then shift blame to other Gulf states. At this stage, a full-scale war seems unlikely, as Iran recognizes the significant challenges and potential internal problems that such a conflict would create. Although missile strikes or proxy attacks might continue, the likelihood of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains low. 

  • How Will Bangladesh Evolve After Hasina?

    How Will Bangladesh Evolve After Hasina?

    Bangladesh, founded just 50 years ago as a result of the conflict between Islam and Bangla language patriotism, is now facing one of the most challenging periods in its history. The country, marked by a flawed democracy, had been under the rule of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina since 2009. Following intense protests that resulted in over 300 deaths, Sheikh Hasina finally resigned. Although her course was constitutional and she won all elections, it frequently resembled an authoritarian regime, with all institutions under the control of the Prime Minister’s Awami League party, leading to widespread dissatisfaction among the people.

    Every regime has a limit. The series of protests, which led to Hasina’s resignation, began with university students protesting against the quota bill. This bill was intended to employ more Awami League supporters in government services, while educated youth continued to suffer from unemployment and poor wages. However, the protests quickly spread across Bangladesh, with opposition party workers and others who suffered under Hasina’s rule joining in. The government tried to suppress the movement by deploying police and Awami League party workers with the authority to enforce severe measures. However, these actions proved ineffective. Although the Supreme Court ruled to scrap the bill, leading to a brief lull, the focus soon shifted to demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. When violence erupted again following the Supreme Court ruling, Hasina labeled the protesters involved in sabotage and destruction as criminals rather than students, calling for a harsh response. The ruling Awami League party claimed that the demand for Hasina’s resignation indicated that the protests had been taken over by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the now-banned Jamaat-e-Islami party, who seek to Islamize Bangladesh.

    On Sunday, in an attempt to quell the escalating protests, the government declared a holiday from Monday to Wednesday, closed the courts indefinitely, and suspended mobile internet services. Access to Facebook and messaging apps, including WhatsApp, was also restricted. Schools and universities across the country were closed. At least 11,000 people have been arrested, and authorities imposed a shoot-on-sight curfew in some areas. However, on Monday, Sheikh Hasina decided to step down as the protests became increasingly violent. Video footage emerged showing people rushing to the Prime Minister’s residence and vandalizing it, reminiscent of the events in Sri Lanka a few years ago. Other footage depicted protesters vandalizing a prison van at the Chief Metropolitan Magistrate’s Court in Dhaka. Protesters set fire to vehicles and ruling party offices, with some wielding sharp weapons and sticks, escalating the unrest into severe riots against the rule of law.

    Political turmoil has long been a feature of Bangladesh. After gaining independence, the Awami League, led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the Father of the Nation, initially formed the government. His regime moved towards establishing a one-party state in 1975, marking the start of democracy’s first collapse in the country. During this period, civil liberties were curtailed, and many newspapers were banned. Following Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s assassination in 1975, Bangladesh experienced two decades of authoritarian rule, including military regimes. Students were consistently vocal against poor governance and breaches of civil liberties. In 1990, civil disobedience and mass uprisings led by students resulted in the creation of a Caretaker Government under Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed. Subsequently, the parliamentary system was reintroduced through a public referendum.

    After the Seventh Parliament election in 1996, Sheikh Hasina assumed the role of Prime Minister for the first time. However, in the subsequent term, a four-party alliance led by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami established a new government under Khaleda Zia. This period saw frequent protests and unrest, which eventually paved the way for Sheikh Hasina’s return to power.  Since 2008, Hasina has faced no serious opposition in elections, consistently securing nearly 250 out of 300 seats, a great majority in Parliament. However, her resignation, following mass protests, threatens her political future, and reports suggest she may seek political asylum in India. Despite her authoritative behavior, she kept Bangladesh away from Islamization and fostered a very friendly relationship with its large neighbor, India. So, Her departure is expected to have significant domestic and international impacts.

    According to the military chief’s announcement, an all-party coalition government will soon be established, and it will follow a general election similar to those in the 1990s. It is anticipated that former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) will return to power in that election. The revival of Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamic factions is also expected. Additionally, Bangladesh is likely to face significant geopolitical tensions. The current opposition parties are known for their anti-India stance, which may result in increased influence from Pakistan and China. Bangladesh is facing a challenging time on all fronts.