Category: Asia

  • Can the U.S. Bring Indonesia onto Its Team?

    Can the U.S. Bring Indonesia onto Its Team?

    Indonesia, an archipelago state situated at the intersection of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, holds significant geopolitical importance. Although the United States is building a military bloc against China in the region, including major countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Singapore, Indonesia does not appear interested in joining. Whichever side Indonesia decides to align with will gain a substantial strategic advantage, but Indonesia is advocating for non-alignment, as it did during the Cold War. But Many expect escalating tensions might force it to choose a side, especially given China’s proximity. In this situation, the United States certainly does not want Indonesia to align with China, but its relationship with Indonesia is not as strong as it is with Malaysia and Singapore. The United States has not put as much effort into engaging Indonesia as it has with Malaysia or Singapore. Given Indonesia’s strong demand for investment and its growing reluctance to accept additional Chinese funding, this could be an opportune moment for the United States to strengthen its relationship with Indonesia.

    Indonesia’s rapid population growth and significant infrastructure developments have heightened the country’s investment needs. Recently, President Joko Widodo began working from the presidential palace in Indonesia’s ambitious new administrative capital. This modern city, being developed amidst rainforests, is set to be one of the largest investment ventures in the nation’s history. Despite being a centerpiece of Widodo’s two terms, the project has encountered delays. Announced in 2019 with a $33 billion budget, it is currently behind schedule and facing investment challenges.

    The project has been marred by confusion, as expected investments have failed to materialize. Indonesian Maritime Affairs and Investment Coordinating Minister Luhut Panjaitan had estimated the total investment needed to be between $30 and $40 billion, which is a lot of money for Indonesia. In 2022, the Japanese SoftBank Group withdrew due to concerns about returns. But the President Jokowi has assured investors that the project will advance regardless of the outcome of the 2024 Indonesian presidential election, stressing that Nusantara represents a valuable investment opportunity. As of August 2023, the government had allocated only 20% of the needed funds, while investors were reluctant to cover the remaining amount due to political uncertainty and Indonesia’s track record of underinvestment in infrastructure. By November, Jokowi acknowledged that no foreign investors had yet committed funds to Nusantara.


    The lack of investors in the megaproject poses a significant challenge for Prabowo once he assumes the presidency. Having promised continuity as part of his campaign platform, Prabowo has pledged to continue Widodo’s landmark projects, including Nusantara. However, the relocation project has already placed considerable strain on the economy. The need for foreign investors is urgent, and there are three potential sources to consider. One option is investment from Gulf countries. Indonesia has strengthened its ties with Islamic nations, and countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have previously made significant investments. However, as these nations are now focusing on policies to protect their own economies, the likelihood of substantial investment in Indonesia is low.

    Another option is the People’s Republic of China, a major trading partner for Indonesia. Despite the ongoing South China Sea disputes, China has made significant investments in Indonesian infrastructure, including the newly inaugurated bullet train. However, with China grappling with economic challenges and growing concerns about its influence, Indonesia has responded by imposing tariffs of up to 200 percent on various Chinese goods in 2024. Additionally, Indonesia is working to restrict Chinese investment in new nickel mining and processing projects, aligning with U.S. efforts to limit Beijing’s influence on the electric vehicle supply chain.

    This situation presents an opportunity for the United States. By increasing investments in Indonesia, similar to their approach in Malaysia, the U.S. could foster development and potentially integrate Indonesia into a regional bloc that includes Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Such alignment could boost investments from these countries and relief from reliance on Chinese goods, promoting growth and stability in the region.

    There are still a lot of issues to resolve between Indonesia and the U.S. Public sentiment may be unfavorable due to the ongoing Gaza issue. it is certain that China will closely monitor the situation and attempt to align Indonesia with its interests, which could challenge  the U.S.. But now,  For Indonesia, cooperation with the U.S. seems to be a great option for advancing its infrastructure projects and boosting the economy.

  • What’s next for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic?

    What’s next for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic?

    It was a significant week for Israel; they humiliated Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic all in the same week. They killed Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, at a safe house during his visit to the Iranian capital, Tehran, just hours after killing Hamas’s military commander, Mohammed Deif, at a safe house in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. The Qatar-based official’s death is likely to affect progress in talks for a ceasefire and hostage release deal, which were already faltering. It appears that Israel is gaining the upper hand, with Arab countries uninterested in regional escalation, and the UN is a big humor.

    Hamas, which began the conflict with a brutal attack on October 7th by crossing into Israeli territory, is now facing severe repercussions. Their leaders are being consistently assassinated, even as they flee to Syria, Iran, or Qatar. Hamas’s plan to negotiate using hostages has already failed, and the people of Gaza, who initially celebrated the attack, are now suffering the most. According to Hamas authorities, the death toll in Gaza has approached 40,000 and the situation seems far from being resolved, as indicated by Netanyahu’s address to the U.S. Congress.

    Ismail Haniyeh, who lost all his family members in Israel’s retaliatory actions, was an important figure in the Hamas movement. While Hamas will likely regroup and survive, this war has left them with a leadership vacuum. Salah al-Arouri, considered one of Haniyeh’s deputies, was killed in a strike in Lebanon in January, and Marwan Issa, Hamas’s deputy military chief, was reportedly killed in Nuseirat in March. On Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that an airstrike in Khan Younis last month successfully targeted Hamas’s military chief, Mohammed Deif.

    In the past, Hamas used a secret ballot in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and abroad to choose their political chief, but that is currently impossible. Instead, Khaled Meshaal, who is currently the head of the Hamas office in the Palestinian diaspora and was Haniyeh’s predecessor, is likely to step back into the role, at least as the acting politburo leader. Khalil al-Hayya, a Qatar-based deputy who has led Hamas’s ceasefire negotiation team, is from Gaza and is reportedly well-regarded by officials in Tehran, which positions him well to succeed Haniyeh.

    Even if a peace-seeking leader were to emerge within Hamas, peace in Gaza remains elusive. Prime Minister Netanyahu has consistently affirmed that the military operation will continue until all Hamas militants are eliminated. Israel claims to have eliminated half of the leadership of Hamas’s military wing, including six senior brigade commanders and more than 20 battalion commanders, and to have killed or wounded 14,000 militants. With the collapse of the hostage deals Hamas was relying on, it is becoming evident that this is the endgame for Hamas.

    Hezbollah, engaged in conflict with Israel alongside Hamas, is facing significant setbacks despite their control over certain territories. They have suffered major losses from Israel’s targeted strikes, with the most recent incident involving the death of a key militant leader who was believed to be secure in a residential area of Beirut. This event is a humiliation not only for Hezbollah but also for Lebanon. Last week, Hezbollah reportedly sent a warning through U.S. mediators that any strikes on Beirut would cross a red line and lead to retaliation against Tel Aviv. Despite this warning, Israel seems to have disregarded it and continues its hunt of Hezbollah leaders, exacerbating the group’s troubles.

    The Guardian of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, led the prayers over the coffins of Haniyeh and his bodyguard, who were draped in traditional black and white Palestinian scarves. Iran is also facing turmoil due to escalating tensions with Israel. Many believe that the death of former Islamic Republic President Ebrahim Raisi was planned and executed by Israel, along with other reported deaths from targeted killings. Despite attempts at retaliation, Iran has been unable to take effective action against Israel. However, Iran appears to be increasingly enraged. Speakers at Haniyeh’s funeral, which was attended by Khamenei, Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian, Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Hossein Salami, and senior members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, vowed to avenge his death. While Israel has already launched a new wave of attacks in Lebanon, Iran’s response is of significant interest. It remains to be seen whether Iran will continue its proxy warfare using militants in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, or if it will escalate to a direct conflict with Israel or engage in combined warfare similar to the 1960s.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t have any worries on escalating situations and they announced on Thursday that his  country is fully prepared to respond to any aggression from any party. Although international officials have limited influence over Israel and Iran, they are working to de-escalate the cycle of retaliation and prevent a broader conflict.

  • Armenia’s Blossoming Relationship with India

    Armenia, feeling abandoned after its humiliating loss in the war with Azerbaijan, struggles to make decisions in international relations. Russia has chosen to side with Azerbaijan, but Armenia cannot become hostile toward Russia as it still heavily relies on Russian military support and the Russian economy. Armenia cannot turn much toward the West either, as it observes the situation in Ukraine. Considering NATO is challenging for Armenia because Turkey, a NATO member, is a historical enemy. China does not prioritize its relationship with Armenia since Azerbaijan is one of its important trade partners. Therefore, no superpower is completely reliable for Armenia at the moment. However, in this situation, a surprising entry is gaining importance. Despite being a developing country, India is a rising superpower both militarily and economically, with aspirations for greater influence. India, which maintains friendly relations with both Russia and the USA, is becoming a great partner for Armenia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who heads a Hindu nationalist party and has shown past animosity towards Islam, is looking interested in strengthening ties with Armenia.

    For Armenia, partnering with India is an excellent option at present. Armenia seems interested in further developing its relationship with India, which has flourished through bilateral military cooperation. In March 2020, Armenia signed an important agreement to purchase four Swathi Weapon Locating Radars for $40 million from India. In September 2022, Armenia agreed to purchase four batteries of Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, anti-tank rockets, and various types of ammunition from India for $240 million. Indian Aerospace Defence News reports that by the start of the current fiscal year 2024-25, Armenia’s total weapons purchases from India had reached $600 million, making it the largest buyer of Indian weapons.

    There will be restrictions on obtaining military equipment from Russia, which is at war and favors Azerbaijan. Buying U.S. weapons could send the wrong message to Russia, and Israel will not supply weapons to Armenia due to its good relationship with Palestine. Thus, Indian weapons are currently the best option for Armenia. Additionally, Indian weapons are inexpensive and compatible with those Turkey supplies to Azerbaijan. 

    For India, the relationship with Armenia is somewhat emotional. The current Indian government, led by Hindu organizations that are critical of Islamization, feels sympathy for Armenia’s Christians, who have been treated harshly by their Islamic neighbors. Pakistan, India’s Muslim-majority neighbor with whom India has ongoing conflicts, maintains a strong relationship with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Although not of Turkic ethnicity and predominantly of Indian background, Pakistan claims a Turkic heritage and seeks to ally with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This alliance of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan appears to have grown beyond social media, and Turkey’s criticism of India is considered part of the worsening relationship between these countries. As a result, India has decided to boost its relationship with Armenia.

    Armenia and India have had a strong relationship throughout history. Both countries have exchanged culture and trade since medieval times, even when they were under Islamic empires. Many people of Armenian origin still live in India, and Armenian Christians have churches there. The relationship between modern Armenia and India has also blossomed. Indian presidents and prime ministers visited Armenia when it was a socialist republic in the Soviet Union, and India was among the first to recognize Armenia’s independence. In 1995, 2003, and 2017, Armenian Presidents Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan, and Serzh Sargsyan visited India, resulting in the establishment of several agreements. In a 2019 interview, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed Armenia’s support for India in the Kashmir conflict with Pakistan. This was a significant support for India, as Western countries and Islamic states tend to side with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. Amid the deepening relationship between India and Armenia, calls for recognizing the Armenian Genocide have increased in India, though there is opposition from Islamist and liberal factions. And For the first time under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, the Indian embassy in Armenia officially acknowledged the genocide, and in 2021, Indian Ambassador Kishan Dan Dewal paid tribute to its victims.

    India and Armenia are a perfect match, like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, as both nations have maintained their culture and beliefs despite significant regional changes. They now share common adversaries. Prime Minister Modi’s interest in cultures and histories fosters a desire for closer ties. This relationship is undoubtedly beneficial for Armenia, as it offers military, technological, and economic support without antagonizing Russia or the United States.

  • Israel-Lebanon Tensions Mount as Beirut Is Hit

    Israel-Lebanon Tensions Mount as Beirut Is Hit

    Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have been exchanging fire across the border since last October, with daily confrontations gradually intensifying. Deaths and casualties have been reported from both sides, and thousands of people have been displaced from their homes on both sides of the border. The conflict has been between Israel and Hezbollah, not Lebanon. There has been no attack from Israel outside of southern Lebanon, which is a stronghold of Hezbollah. However, it has been clear that if either Israel or Hezbollah escalates the conflict, Lebanon, an already fragile country, will be forced to join. This is now feared to be happening.

    Yesterday, Israel attacked a suburb of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Israel described it as a targeted operation to kill Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukur, who is wanted as a criminal. But, Lebanon is unhappy about the extension of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict into its densely populated capital city. The attack resulted in civilian casualties. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, three people, including two children, were killed, and 74 were injured in the attack.

    Lebanon’s cabinet is reportedly holding important meetings to discuss the attack, which the caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, condemned as a criminal act by Israel. In his statement, he added that the Israeli killing machine has not been satisfied by targeting the south of Lebanon and the Bekaa; it has now reached the heart of the capital, Beirut, just meters away from one of the largest hospitals and near the city’s important international airport.

    .In reality, Beirut had been bracing for Israel’s response to a rocket strike on a children’s football match in the occupied Golan Heights three days earlier. However, the attack on Beirut came as a surprise. The Golan Heights attack was attributed to Hezbollah, with both Israel and the U.S. blaming the group, though Hezbollah denied responsibility. Global leaders engaged in intensive diplomacy on Sunday to persuade Israel against escalating attacks on Lebanon, amid fears of a broader regional conflict. The U.S. has been spearheading global diplomatic efforts to prevent Israel from targeting Beirut or Lebanese infrastructure, aiming to avert a full-scale regional war. Although it was anticipated that Israel would retaliate, the assault on the capital city has left Lebanon feeling humiliated as an independent nation. Efforts are now underway to work with Lebanon to de-escalate the situation.

    Despite widespread anger expressed on social media, the Lebanese government is actively working to ease tensions. Lebanon’s foreign minister called the strike on Beirut a shock, given prior assurances from Israel’s allies that the country was planning a limited response that would not escalate into war. Lebanon plans to file a complaint with the UN Security Council and has requested Hezbollah to carry out a proportional retaliation. He stressed the need to end the cycle of destruction, killing, and death. In a briefing, Hagari noted that Hezbollah’s ongoing aggression and brutal attacks are pulling Lebanon and the entire Middle East into a broader escalation. It looks like Israel also aims to resolve hostilities without a larger war, the IDF is fully prepared for any scenario. 

    Both parties are growing increasingly vigilant as the situation in the region reaches a state of heightened tension. Tensions in  Lebanon have escalated to its peak since Saturday’s rocket strike on a town that killed 12 children playing football. Queues formed at petrol stations across the city as people filled their cars in anticipation of further escalation. Many airlines have canceled flights to Beirut, with Greece’s Aegean Airlines and Germany’s Condor joining Royal Jordanian, Air France, and Lufthansa in suspending services. But the chance of full scale war is less, because both parties will suffer.

    Hezbollah will need to retaliate now, and Israel will follow…

  • Bangladesh After the Civilian Outburst

    Bangladesh After the Civilian Outburst

    Bangladesh has witnessed a significant uprising against the government in recent weeks. The uprising nearly escalated to the level of a civil war with direct confrontations in the streets. On one side, police, paramilitary forces, and supporters of the ruling party are aligned, while on the other side, students and citizens opposing the authoritarian government are gathered on a large scale. Cities, including the capital Dhaka, have experienced deadly violence, with reports of almost 200 deaths and over 1,000 serious injuries.

    Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Bangladesh’s founder Mujibur Rahman and Prime Minister since 2009, has successfully cracked down on the situation and prevented a potential civil war. But The seasoned politician, understanding the mood of the state, is taking measures to regain control over the judiciary, executive, military, and public sentiment. The image of the weeping Prime Minister in front of the dead bodies was a significant move to restore her deteriorating image.

    The reintroduction of quotas for the descendants of participants in the independence war in government jobs was widely viewed as a move to appease members of the Awami League, a party born out of Bangladesh’s independence struggle. This decision sparked widespread outrage on campuses, as students already dealing with an economic downturn and high youth unemployment saw one of their few chances of securing a stable job being taken from them, with thousands of civil service positions to be filled through patronage rather than merit.

    As support for the protests grew, a violent, state-led crackdown began, and campuses descended into bloody battlefields, resulting in about 200 deaths. The Rapid Action Battalion, an elite unit of Bangladesh’s police forces, fired teargas from helicopters on crowds below, while army forces fired at protesters with what appeared to be light machine guns.  Government-backed violent student groups and armed riot police, operating under shoot to kill orders, used violence and deadly weapons against peaceful protesters, resulting in some of the worst clashes in Bangladesh in over a decade.

    The strength of the state-led crackdown has galvanized many on the ground to see the protest movement as no longer just about quotas, which were scaled back by the court on Sunday. While this decision was made by the courts, it was seen by many as a thinly veiled political maneuver by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has a tight grip over the judiciary. The movement has grown into a civilian-led effort to oust Hasina, who has ruled with an increasingly authoritarian grip since 2009.

    The prime minister has been ruling for 15 years and has spent so much time strengthening her hold over state mechanisms that she believes she has become invincible. In statements this week, widely criticized by protesters, Hasina argued that the violence was provoked by political opposition and Islamist groups hostile to Bangladesh as a nation, prompting her to send paramilitary and police forces to protect the students. Over 2,500 members of the political opposition including students have been arrested.

    The growing authoritarianism of Hasina’s rule, including the past three elections widely documented as rigged, had been brewing a civilian “Outburst”. These protests underscore the struggle between democracy and Hasina’s move toward complete totalitarianism. Although there has been a significant trust deficit between Hasina and the people for a while, this is the first time we are witnessing defiant calls for her removal on such a large scale.

    An uneasy calm settled over Bangladesh after the court ruling on Sunday reduced the quotas to 5%. Student leaders temporarily halted all demonstrations, expressing a desire to avoid further bloodshed and presented Hasina with a set of demands, including an apology and justice for those killed in the violence. Student activists said further action was planned but hindered because many organizers were in the hospital or had been detained by police, with some alleging torture. Others confirmed they had been put under de facto house arrest, with all forms of communication cut off, and were under constant surveillance from a counter-terrorism police unit notorious for involvement in enforced disappearances.

    Hasina won this time, but the prime minister is getting weaker day by day. Next time, neither a curfew nor the army will be able to suppress the people.

  • Vietnamese Politics After Nguyen Phu Trong

    Vietnamese Politics After Nguyen Phu Trong

    Vietnamese politics is entering a new era following the death of General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong. Trong was Vietnam’s most powerful leader in decades, having served as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) for the past 13 years across three terms. As Vietnam is a single-party state under an authoritarian system led by the CPV, the General Secretary holds the de facto highest position in Vietnamese politics. This new era, with a new General Secretary, is being closely observed both domestically and internationally, particularly in the context of serious geopolitical tensions in the region.

    Vietnamese politics remains largely stable despite frequent changes in the presidency and prime ministership, as the national congress, led by the Communist Party, makes the key decisions that shape the country’s direction. Over the past decade, Trong is credited with directing crucial policies, including those against corruption. He is arguably Vietnam’s most influential leader since its founding revolutionary, Ho Chi Minh. Trong became the general secretary of the ruling party in 2011 and made history by securing a third five-year term in 2021. He was also in the role of Vietnam’s president from 2018 to 2020. Despite the rapid changes in the presidency and prime ministership, the leadership of the Communist Party has remained stable, helping to preserve the country’s communist system. However, some uncertainty looms in Hanoi following the death of this long-serving leader. Trong left behind a mixed political and economic legacy, having overseen Vietnam’s rapid economic growth and a “blazing furnace” crackdown on corruption.

    Duties temporarily transferred to Lam, the 66-year-old who became president in May and was previously Vietnam’s public security minister. Lam is widely considered as Trong’s successor, particularly because he oversees Trong’s ambitious anti-corruption drive. Since 2016, this campaign has ensnared 40 members of the party’s Central Committee and dozens of military and police generals. Although the crackdown has enjoyed public support, the removal of six out of 18 Politburo members since December 2022, including three of Vietnam’s top five leaders since March, has sparked concerns about factional infighting and fears of a potential succession crisis. Acting leader Lam will hold the position until the Communist Party’s 14th Congress in January 2026. During the next 17 months, there will be limited policymaking as the Communist Party of Vietnam concentrates on selecting new personnel and preparing policies for the Congress.

    Despite the political turmoil, no change is expected in Vietnam’s foreign policy, with Hanoi remaining studiously neutral and maintaining deep economic ties with both China and the US and its allies. Observers generally viewed Hanoi’s pragmatic “Bamboo Diplomacy” under Trong’s leadership positively, as it delicately balanced relations between China and the United States amid a deepening rift with its northern neighbor in the South China Sea. However, Vietnam’s foreign policy could be influenced by external events. Potential flashpoints include Beijing’s rising assertiveness in the South China Sea, deteriorating relations with Cambodia, and possible changes in US policy under a new administration. Despite differences, Trong always maintained a good relationship with the Chinese Communist Party. Following the announcement of Trong’s death, the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping issued a condolence message, honoring him as a good comrade, a good brother, and a good friend.

    Under Trong’s leadership, Vietnam’s relationships with the US and Russia also reached new heights. Over the past 10 months, despite his health issues, Trong hosted both Xi and US President Joe Biden in Hanoi and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. Hanoi has also advanced its relationships with Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, and ASEAN neighbors.

    Trong did much to shape the country’s direction, and the likelihood of revising his policies or changing course is low. His successor remains uncertain, and the Politburo offers little clarity, as most recent additions have military backgrounds and are likely to be more obedient with fewer disputes. It is expected that there will be no clash in the succession. However, tough years lie ahead for Vietnam, and the Vietnam-China and Vietnam-US relationships will be tested as tensions rise in the region.

  • China and the Philippines to Ease Tensions in the South China Sea

    China and the Philippines to Ease Tensions in the South China Sea

    After escalating tensions to a highly inflammable level in the waters, including humiliations, passing highly volatile laws, and fueling the conflict in every way, it now seems that China is downplaying the situation and seeking to de-escalate tensions with the Philippines. It appears that China now aims only to maintain its claim to the sea and realizes that further inflaming the region would be detrimental. Consequently, they are preparing to compromise with the Philippines, spreading hope for peace in the region.

    According to reports, China and the Philippines have reached an understanding regarding resupply missions to a beached Filipino naval ship, a key flashpoint between the two countries in the South China Sea. In 1999, Manila intentionally beached the naval ship Sierra Madre on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal to assert its claims over the surrounding waters. Since then, a small group of sailors has remained on the vessel to support the Philippines interests, which has led to resupply missions that China has been accused of repeatedly attempting to obstruct. China asserts sovereignty over the South China Sea and is uninterested in the Philippines claims to the islands within it. China has accused the Philippines of using these supply missions to further its interests on the islands, while the Philippines has leveled similar accusations against China.

    The Chinese foreign ministry confirmed a temporary arrangement between the two sides to jointly manage maritime differences and de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea. The ministry reiterated China’s demand that the Philippines tow away the ship and restore Second Thomas Shoal to its original state, as if it were unmanned and without facilities. The ministry also stated that China is willing to allow the Philippines to provide supplies to the ship’s occupants on humanitarian grounds before the beached warship is removed. However, they warned that if the Philippines attempts to transport large amounts of building materials to the ship and construct fixed facilities or permanent outposts, China will not accept it and will resolutely block such actions to protect its sovereignty. It seems like China is indicating that it does not want to fight but is ready to engage in dialogue.

    The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) did not provide specifics about the provisional arrangement agreed upon Sunday for the resupply missions to the Sierra Madre. However, they noted that the arrangement followed frank and constructive discussions between the two sides earlier this month. The DFA emphasized that both parties continue to acknowledge the need to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation, agreeing that the arrangement will not affect each other’s positions in the South China Sea. Philippine foreign ministry spokesperson Teresita Daza also stated that they will not retreat from their claims on the South China Sea islands and affirmed that Manila will continue to assert its rights and jurisdiction in its maritime zones, including Second Thomas Shoal.

    The United States is bound to the Philippines by several defense agreements and pacts, including the well-known Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951. Additionally, the U.S. is working to increase cooperation with its allies in the East, such as Japan, Taiwan, and Australia, to build a military cooperation structure similar to NATO. This means that if tensions between China and the Philippines escalate further, it could develop into a regional conflict or even a third world war. However, the United States has no doubts about its commitment to the Philippines, and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that they will take all necessary measures to support the Philippines resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal. Interestingly, Sullivan’s counterpart in the Philippines, Eduardo Año, sought to prevent further escalation of tensions by stating that they do not need direct American military engagement in the resupply mission at this point.

    Both China and the Philippines have maintained firm positions on their territorial claims in the disputed waters. Tensions in the area have escalated into violence over the past year, including a recent incident where a Filipino soldier lost a finger in what Manila described as an intentional high-speed ramming by the Chinese Coast Guard. Numerous reports of similar incidents, mostly from the Chinese side, have involved attempts to humiliate opponents. Such provocations have raised fears of a conflict that could have global repercussions. However, recent developments and a mutual desire for dialogue offer the best solution for both China and the Philippines, as well as for the entire region.

  • Is the Israel-Houthi Conflict Intensifying?

    Is the Israel-Houthi Conflict Intensifying?

    Israel was stunned last week by a drone attack on its second-largest city, Tel Aviv. The drone, launched by the notorious Houthi militia, an Islamist organization operating from Yemen, penetrated Israel’s renowned surveillance radars and missile defense system, hit its target, and caused the death of an Israeli citizen while injuring multiple others. This incident was a significant embarrassment for Israel, which prides itself on its defense technologies. Although Israel conducted powerful airstrikes the day after officials vowed revenge, devastating the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah, an important location for the Houthi-led government in Yemen, Israelis now realize these militias can strike them by breaching defense systems. While the Houthis and other Islamists are celebrating their attack on Israel, there is global concern that Yemen, along with Lebanon and Syria, might escalate into a war with Israel. However, this will not be an easy task for Israel.

    The Houthis, an Islamic insurgent group linked with Iran, control a significant area in Yemen along its Red Sea coastal region, a vital trade route. They have long supported Palestine and Gaza, pledging to eliminate Israel. They have allied with Hamas and Hezbollah, two Islamist organizations with the same goal of establishing a Palestinian Muslim state from the river to the sea. The Houthi militia has targeted ships in the Gulf of Aden and disrupted maritime activity in the Red Sea for months in response to Israeli attacks in Gaza, garnering support from the Islamic world as they advocate for Islam more than the so-called wealthy Islamic kingdoms.

    Although numerous strikes against Israel and Western-linked ships have severely disrupted business at key Israeli ports, the recent strike on Tel Aviv was the first direct hit on Israel since Houthi rebels began targeting the country with missiles and drones last year. All previous attacks had been intercepted until Friday’s strike. The Houthis immediately claimed responsibility and boasted that they had used a new type of drone undetectable by radar and air defense systems.

    Israeli officials downplayed the Houthis’ claim, attributing it to “Human Error” rather than the Houthis capability to conduct a long-range attack that skillfully evaded Israel’s technology. Chief military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari stated that the drone had been detected by air defenses, but an “Error” prevented its interception.

    On Saturday, the very next day, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that its fighter jets had struck military targets in Hodeidah Port in Yemen “In response to the hundreds of attacks carried out against the state of Israel in recent months”. The airstrikes targeted a refinery and electricity infrastructure, igniting a massive blaze. Reports indicate that three people were killed and 87 wounded in the strikes on the oil facilities, though this has not been confirmed. Later in the evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the attack, stating that the port was targeted because it was being used for military purposes. He added that the strike sends a clear message to their enemies that there is no place beyond the reach of Israel’s long arm.

    The score is now 1 to 1, and it will likely end this way, just like the Israel-Iran conflict. However, political experts have other opinions. The increase in the number of missile attacks from the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Syrian Islamist militants proves they are intensifying their actions against Israel. They are aware that Western support for Israel is diminishing while support from the Muslim world for these groups is increasing, which is certainly advantageous for them. The Houthis vowed to “Plague” Israel with further attacks in response to the strikes on their port city, an approach that must be viewed within the context of the shifting global sentiment regarding the Israel-Gaza war.

    Israel is also unlikely to escalate the situation further because they know it isn’t as easy as dealing with Lebanon or Syria. The geographical distance, diminishing global support, and potential disruptions to global logistics will influence Israel’s decisions. The situation resembles Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia, despite having modern weapons, failed in their costly intervention in Yemen. The U.S. and U.K. also experienced setbacks with direct proxy wars there. Therefore, Israel is unlikely to engage in a full-scale war against the Houthis or Yemen right now. The drone and missile attacks will likely continue, as both sides seek to showcase their strength. However, since they are targeting populated cities, human losses are to be expected. Missiles are for killing people, not for finding solutions.

  • Why are Bangladeshi students protesting against the government?

    Why are Bangladeshi students protesting against the government?

    Bangladesh is in turmoil as student protests have escalated into riots. The country, notorious for its large population and low living standards, has been experiencing a wave of protests. In its 50 years of existence, Bangladesh has frequently experienced protests and severe government crackdowns that have hindered its development. Combined with a poor economy and high unemployment, these ongoing protests have further deepened the rift between the government and the people.

    The latest protests, which began at universities and spread across the state, were against a job quota bill that provided reservations based on the participation of one’s bloodline in the independence movement. The protests turned violent as the government and the ruling party’s student wing chose to confront the movement, which targets the government and the prime minister. The student movement is anticipated to emerge as a significant opposition force against Sheikh Hasina’s government, which has been in power continuously for nearly 15 years.

    At least 32 people were killed on Thursday, in addition to the seven killed earlier in the week, and thousands were injured after police fired tear gas into crowds of protesting students. As both government and private properties, including the state television office, were targeted, paramilitary forces were deployed across the country.

    Protests first erupted on university campuses across Bangladesh a fortnight ago as tens of thousands of students demanded an end to “Unreasonable and discriminatory quotas” for government jobs. The quotas, which reserve 30% of jobs for family members of veterans who fought in Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971, were abolished in 2018 but reinstated this month after a court order. The reintroduction of the quotas provoked fury among students, who argue that the job market in Bangladesh is already extremely challenging amid high unemployment, heavy inflation, and a struggling economy. With the private sector diminishing, government jobs have become the most secure and sought-after form of employment, yet are heavily restricted, with 50% already allocated through quotas.

    On Monday night, student protests turned violent when police and heavily armed members of the ruling Awami League’s student wing attacked the demonstrators. In Dhaka, police fired tear gas and charged at the protesters with batons, while pro-government groups assaulted them with machetes, bamboo rods, and hockey sticks, injuring thousands. The violence escalated on Tuesday as campuses nationwide became battlegrounds. Hundreds of protesters demanding reform of civil service hiring rules clashed with riot police, who had fired rubber bullets at them. The protesters chased the retreating officers to the headquarters of state television BTV in Dhaka. In their fury, the crowd set fire to the network’s reception building and dozens of vehicles parked outside.

    Many blocked major highways and railway lines and broke through police barriers to stage demonstrations across the overcrowded capital city of Dhaka. The new ruling on quotas was paused by the Supreme Court last week, but students have said they will continue protesting until the quotas are permanently overturned. Many political scientists believe the student movement is evolving into a significant opposition force in the country. While Hasina has suppressed Khaleda Zia and Islamist factions in the political sphere, the students now present a formidable challenge to her. Addressing this shift, Hasina has adopted a more aggressive stance. Sheikh Hasina referred to the protesting students using the slur “Razakars”, meaning those who betrayed the nation during the war of independence in 1971, which further worsened the situation.

    A job is precious in a country like Bangladesh. There are not many private sector jobs due to low investment, and overpopulation leads to an oversupply of unskilled workers, making labor cheap. Therefore, the only hope for many people is government jobs, which also carry significant social prestige. The quota system is killing this hope and is seen as favoring the ruling party’s interests, with no opposition to challenge it. Student protesters accuse Hasina of authoritarianism, and political scientists believe the current wave of protests is a direct response to prolonged repression under the authoritarian regime of Hasina and her Awami League party, who have ruled continuously since 2009. In January, Hasina won a fifth term in power after an election widely reported as rigged, with tens of thousands of her political opponents jailed. The anger against the government can be seen as opposition to favoritism, authoritarianism, and lack of opportunities.

  • How Imran Khan’s Possible Comeback Will Affect Pakistani Politics

    How Imran Khan’s Possible Comeback Will Affect Pakistani Politics

    The military-driven politics of Pakistan is in crisis again, with the possible return of former Prime Minister and Islamist populist leader Imran Khan and his political party to the mainstream. Major cases against Imran Khan, which blocked him from contesting in the last general election, have been suspended, including a conviction for illegal marriage that carried a seven-year sentence, a serious crime in the Islamic Republic. This conviction was overturned by a court in Islamabad on Saturday. This development raises fears that Imran Khan will actively return to politics to lead his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party against the will of the notorious military, conventional political parties, and executives.

    In the highly rigged last general election, the authorities did everything to prevent Imran Khan and his party from climbing to power. Although Imran Khan remains the most popular figure in the country, he and his party were banned, and all candidates contested independently. Nevertheless, PTI independents, who didn’t even have a common election symbol as they were banned from contesting collectively, won 118 seats out of 336. Removing the cricket bat symbol, which connects people with former cricket champion Imran Khan, was seen as preventing voters from recognizing the party on ballot papers, a crucial factor considering 40 percent of the population is illiterate.

    Although the number obtained by PTI independents falls far below the 169 seats needed for a majority, considering the attempts by the authorities to suppress the party, this was a significant achievement. Despite strong support from the authorities, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) only garnered fewer than 100 seats. Even though these independents secured a majority, their party was not recognized. The other parties joined to form a government under the direction of the military. The absence of Imran Khan facilitated this, but his return will likely end the dominance of the ruling alliance. His well-known ability to mobilize his supporters will likely cause more turmoil in a country already suffering from economic crises, terrorism, and poor governance.

    Pakistan’s government is not ready to give up and is seeking more ways to keep Imran Khan out of politics and stop the resurrection of PTI. In the last week, a Supreme Court ruling made the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) authorized again, and they became the largest party in the country’s parliament. The Supreme Court ruled last week that PTI was a political party and eligible for 20 further seats in a post-election dispute that arose from its candidates running as independents. The ruling handed PTI members seats reserved for women and minorities, which will increase the power of PTI in parliament.

    In response, the Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, said the government would go to court to press for treason charges against Khan, adding that there are many charges that can be brought against Imran Khan. The Pakistani judiciary is notorious for such charges. Tarar said the move to ban PTI was because Khan’s supporters had targeted military installations during violence after his earlier arrest on corruption charges in May last year and over allegations of foreign funding.

    The last election made it clear that Imran Khan and the PTI are the people’s choice. However, what if the people’s choice leads to suffering for the country and the region? Islamist populist leader Imran Khan can be considered a threat to the future of the country. He has chosen China over their conventional ally, the US, which poses a significant risk for both the country and the region, especially since Pakistan holds nuclear weapons, which can lead to more conflicts.

    Although questioning how dangerous Imran Khan is may be secondary, it is clear that the government’s actions against him are unethical and not supported by the constitution of the Islamic Republic. The government’s movements clearly indicate a shift towards a soft martial law. And PTI has faced a severe crackdown since last year. Its leaders were harassed and arrested in the run-up to the general election, and the military forced Khan’s close aides to leave the party.

    The actions of the Pakistani government are a significant blow to democratic norms, especially given that the Supreme Court has unanimously ruled that PTI is a legitimate political party. Imran Khan, who has been saved by the court on many occasions, may get arrested again, but this will lead to more division in Pakistani politics and probably more anarchy and violence.