Category: Elections 2024

  • Iran to Hold Election Ensuring No Changes

    Iran to Hold Election Ensuring No Changes

    The Islamic Republic of Iran is set to conduct the first round of its presidential election on June 28th. This swift election follows the unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. According to the Islamic Republic’s constitution, a new election must be held within fifty days to fill the vacant presidential post. No one expects Ebrahim Raisi’s successor to bring significant political change, and Iran’s unpopular elections, characterized by highly vetted candidates and low voter turnout, are intended to maintain the regime’s priorities of continuity and stability.

    As the regime is well aware of the public mood against them, politicians with views divergent from the Islamic Republic are banned from public politics, so they cannot even think about participating in elections. In the last race, in 2021, the Guardian Council, an elite body appointed by Khamenei that vets candidates, banned all reformists, although they do not oppose the Islamic Republic. This time, however, one has made the cut. More options have been provided by the authorities. Masoud Pezeshkian, a doctor, MP, and former health minister whose father was Azeri and mother was Kurdish, is an interesting candidate. Cynics assume he has been picked precisely because he is unlikely to win, viewing the parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, as the likeliest victor among the six men running. Saeed Jalili, a former national security adviser known for his hardline religious views, is another contender. However, the ceremonial election winner is likely to be predetermined by the authorities.

    Mr. Qalibaf, widely predicted to win, has repeatedly faced corruption allegations, though he is favored by the regime. He helped oversee violent crackdowns on students both as a general and as a police chief, making him indispensable to the regime in suppressing protests against it. Iran’s most powerful entities, the supreme leader’s office and the country’s military Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with whom he has served and maintains strong connections, are expected to support him for the presidential role. Analysts suggest he might steer Iran towards what they regard as its inevitable future: increasingly dominated by the military rather than the clerical establishment. Qalibaf is also a former mayor of Tehran with a reputation as a technocrat, raising hopes that he might improve living conditions, despite the challenges posed by the mounting sanctions. 

    Even though the Islamic Republic has numerous issues to address in an election,such as women’s rights, human rights, and economic misconditions, the selection of candidates who lack the courage or obedience to the regime is the primary reason for candidate approval. This may lead to neglecting the issues facing Iran. Since most participants in the election are conservative, the candidate chosen is often the most conservative Islamist leader or the leader with the closest connection to the regime. Although candidates’ behavior towards the public and their public image also matter, the outcome of the last election, which resulted in the selection of the last president, Ebrahim Raisi, known as the butcher of Tehran due to his tough stance for the republic.

    But of course, tough times are waiting for the new president. The possible hostility of a second Trump administration and the regime facing widespread discontent at home, following the suppression of the massive Women’s, Life, Freedom protests, are all factors to consider. Actions towards the people who celebrated the death of the butcher will also be interesting to watch. The evidence of recent years suggests that the regime is more concerned about conservative consolidation at the top than about legitimacy from below.

    The last presidential election, held in 2021, recorded the lowest turnout ever, with only 48% of electors bothering to cast their votes. Therefore, the regime needs to appear credible and re-engage at least parts of the public. Reformists had warned of an election boycott if their candidates were barred from running. Some also speculate that the supreme leader may hope to curb factionalism and infighting within conservative ranks. However, the widespread assumption is that Mr. Pezeshkian is permitted to participate because Iran’s powerbrokers are confident he will not win. In the past, Hassan Rouhani ascended to the presidency with the backing of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; Mr. Pezeshkian does not have a similarly influential supporter. Ali Larijani, a moderate conservative who was barred from running, might have been a more formidable threat as a heavyweight figure. However, whoever wins, those in power remain confident that he will not pose a problem. Thus, the Islamic Republic will be preserved.

  • Modi Warned by Indian Voters

    Modi Warned by Indian Voters

    We love you, Modi. We need you, but we will not provide you with excessive power. This is the exact outcome of the Indian general election 2024. Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister, who was seeking a third consecutive term, failed to capture a majority single-handedly as he did in the previous two elections and is now forced to collaborate with allies. As per the latest report, it is certain that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will clinch power with 300 MPs, including independents who won in the election. However, the election results are contrary to celebrated predictions, which gave Modi a single-handed majority of 300 MPs out of 543. Many believe this unexpected election result is part of voters concern that securing a continuous mandate in favor of Modi could lead to authoritarianism and push him towards the collapse of the republic founded in 1950, ultimately leading to a Hindu nation.

    There were reported instances of authoritarianism and threats to the secular Indian republic during Modi’s second tenure and even during the campaign for this general election. Opposition figures who were reluctant to join BJP were punished by detective agencies, and the main opposition party, Indian National Congress, had its funds frozen at a time when they were in dire need. Additionally, all media, business tycoons, and movie stars aligned with the BJP, and the campaigns often turned into hate campaigns. Modi’s campaign highly idolized himself with slogans like ”Modi ki Guarantee” and he frequently boasted that he would win 400 seats while the opposition would not even cross 50. However, something different happened, as the election results proved.

    Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party can form a government, no doubts about it. BJP won 240 seats out of 543. No one is nearer, and the main opposition party Indian National Congress collected only 99 seats. There is no need to compare these two parties to determine the winner by tally. But Modi faces humiliation in India’s social media space because he alone couldn’t reach the 272 mark, the majority. Social media finds it amusing with the amount of money they used, the machinery they deployed, and all the tactics to tackle opposition chances. BJP still didn’t get the result they expected, and now they are relying on other parties. They are no longer invincible in India. 

    People appreciate Modi’s charisma and Indians admire his leadership. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that they may not fully endorse all of Modi’s unilateral actions; they prioritize safeguarding the constitution and halting authoritarian tendencies. Now, the BJP must broaden its alliances and foster more discussions among its allies and opposition, a departure from the previous term. Despite Modi’s assurance of continuing with allies, it remains to be seen how long he can sustain a united front. Modi previously ruled single-handedly, establishing his own brand by marginalizing other ministers and exercising control over every ministry. Going forward, this will not be feasible as they will have allies with differing interests. Modi can move forward, with parties like the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal United ready to join the BJP in a possible BJP-led NDA government. However, they may not fully support Modi’s policies and the BJP’s foundation agendas, which lean towards Hindu nationalism. Consequently, Modi faces constraints.

    The performance of opposition parties deserves applause, even though they failed to displace Modi. The Indian National Congress, which won 99 seats this time, doesn’t need to plead with the BJP for the official opposition leader post, which wasn’t granted in the previous two instances. The election results also favored the alliance led by the Indian National Congress, marking a resurgence for its leader Rahul Gandhi, who traveled across India to regain lost ground, although his leadership was previously questioned. The Samajwadi Party, the third-largest party in the election results, caused a major upset by breaking the BJP’s fortress in Uttar Pradesh and reducing seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party, securing 37 seats. Other parties in the opposition alliance, such as the Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, also performed well but fell short of toppling Modi’s dominance. However, the election results will undoubtedly boost the opposition alliance and parties, enabling them to raise issues like unemployment more prominently in the public sphere. It is expected that Indian media will finally allocate screen time to opposition parties as well.

    Indian democracy, frequently criticized by the West and seen as a bad example for democracy. But the election results show how Indians value their democracy and how they make decisions to safeguard the republic each time. Even though they did not punish Modi like they did with the previous autocracy wisher, Indira Gandhi, by giving all the mandate to the opposition bloc, they sent a strong message to Modi that the republic will be preserved. The possible next government by Modi will likely emphasize development programs instead of pushing Hindu agendas. For Modi, it’s time to review his actions and correct them; he has acted more like a king than a Prime Minister. So, the election results are good for Modi, good for the Opposition, and good for the republic.

  • India Entering A Political Circus

    India Entering A Political Circus

    Indian politicians and political parties are well known for their flexibility. They can shift sides sacrificing their political aims and stances to secure administration and power. This trend was common in the 1990s when several governments formed in New Delhi without a single majority, mixing up different ideological parties. Even parties that fought each other in Lok Sabha General elections would form alliances to form a government. There are several examples of this phenomenon; we even saw the Hindu Nationalist Party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Anti-Hindu Ideology Party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), coming together solely for the objective of forming a government, only to fail and soon after, find another partner. This trend, which badly affected India’s growth and the credibility of Indian politics, was diminished with the entry of Narendra Modi into national-level politics. He secured the magical number to form the government single-handedly in the general election. BJP formed the government with a single-handed majority but added their close allies ceremonially in 2014 and 2019. There was no scope for political circuses. Though the election results for the 2024 general election are coming out, BJP doesn’t have a single-handed majority, and is offering a great time for Political Circus again.

    While the Election Commission of India still has not officially published the full election results, the media is already announcing the outcome of the marathon Indian general election, stretched over seven phases and spanning over three months. It dealt a huge blow to predictions and opinion polls, which had anticipated more than 350 seats for the BJP-led alliance out of the 543 total constituencies, foreseeing an easy victory for the BJP. Even though the BJP emerged as the largest party after the election, it fell short by 32 seats  (at the time of writing) for a majority, which is 272. The main opposition party, INC, nearly doubled its previous seat count to 100, and with their alliance, they posed a tough fight for the BJP. At first glance, it may seem that the BJP-led alliance could easily form a government as they have a tally above the 272 mark. However, this is where India’s political circus comes into focus. The BJP-led alliance includes Janata Dal United (JDU), with 12 seats, and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), with 16 seats. They are known for their swing politics, having previously cooperated with the Indian National Congress. If they receive a favorable offer, they may jump to the opposition alliance, and to the hope of the Bharatiya Janata Party, these swing parties could also align with the BJP. Interestingly, besides the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress, everyone seems capable of switching sides.

    Even Though Modi can climb to the prime minister post for the third time, it’s sure it will not be the same as the previous Modi government. As the importance comes for the local parties which can help BJP to touch 272 mark, they can’t agree with the supremacy of Modi in Government,  idolizing and celebrating him in the government programs, and direct control of the Prime minister’s office in ministries. Sure, there will be opposition from allies. While BJP makes a mixture of the different politics in NDA, it’s sure different interests of each party will collide, Possible allies Janata dal united and Telugu Desam Party have regional interest and they uphold secularism over BJP’s Hindu nationalism. So bringing the bills in parliament, especially the bills projecting BJP’s ideologies, will be challenging unlike previous times. BJP’s flagship objectives like Uniform civil code, unification of Indosphere, which is widely expected to be carried on Modi’s third term with a great majority,  is in limbo now. Probably Allies, which projects secularism and regionalism will not cooperate with them.

    Indian circuses, widely known in the name of Bombay circuses were great entertainment to  watch and the current scenario in Indian politics after the general election results, with scope for a possible political circus will also be expected to offer entertainment. BJP has the upper hand, as they are still the biggest party, but who is going to stay with them is important. Before election results were announced, BJP leaders started talks with its current allies and parties in opposite blocs. BJP previously formed several state governments, by effectively catching the parties from the opposition bloc. The same strategy is expected by BJP here and they will form a government at whatever the cost. And INC the second biggest party, and Samajwadi Party third biggest party, they are allies now and They will probably wait, to watch the happenings, and they will try their best to  topple the BJP-led government, there is now more scope for them. The General election results clearly show BJP losing their tight grip in Indian Political space, and give negotiation capacity for small parties. It is sure that Modi’s third government will be completely different from the previous two terms.

  • Can Modi’s Third Term Bring Akhand Bharat Closer?

    Can Modi’s Third Term Bring Akhand Bharat Closer?

    Only one phase of polling remains out of the seven phases of the marathon Indian general election, which has stretched over three months. On July 4th, the election results will be published. Even though predicting the minds of a billion people is challenging, the media are forecasting an edge for the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is expected to secure a consecutive third term. If a strong leader like Modi and Hindu Nationalist Party  awarded a continuous third term, it is expected that there will be more actions fulfilling the long-held wishes of Hindu organizations, with a priority on the formation of Akhand Bharat, a greater Indosphere, stretching Afghanistan to Myanmar, including all South Asian countries.

    Last year, on the occasion of the inauguration of India’s new parliament building, a mural was unveiled that depicted a map of the Maurya Empire under Ashoka. This map, instead of modern India, sparked controversy and criticism from several of India’s neighboring countries, as almost all of them were part of that ancient empire. Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, then spokesperson for the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, condemned the mural, branding it as an expression of revisionism and expansionism. Similarly, the junior minister for foreign affairs of Bangladesh voiced concerns, noting widespread discontent over the depicted map. Additionally, numerous Nepali politicians voiced their apprehensions about the mural.

    While India appears to be employing a strategy akin to China’s, which asserts claims over neighboring territories using the Qing Dynasty map, it has not assuaged the concerns of its neighbors. Responding to these concerns, Arindam Bagchi, the spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, conveyed that the mural embodies the concept of responsible and people-centered governance championed by the ancient king Ashoka and the Maurya empire. However, it is evident that the map aligns with the agenda of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which advocates for a revival of India’s past glory. Politicians in the BJP, including Minister of Parliamentary Affairs Pralhad Joshi, proudly declared it as a symbol of Akhand Bharat, the Pan-Indian country, asserting it as their destiny.

    Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist right wing party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have often been accused of far-right politics that aim to revive India’s ancient histories and mythologies. He frequently speaks about restoring India to its former glory. Modi also made headlines with his promotion of the ancient name “Bharat” instead of the Western name “India” and by making  a strong objective of reclaiming the Pakistan-held territory of Kashmir.

    Akhand Bharat has been a long-standing demand since the Indian independence movement. The call for the creation of Akhand Bharat has occasionally been raised by various Hindu nationalist organizations, including the BJP’s parent organization, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS textbook included a map that depicted Pakistan and Bangladesh as part of “Akhand Bharat,” along with post-partition modern India. Additionally, a trade union magazine from the same organization extended this concept to include Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar. Moreover RSS, there are many other organizations advocating for this idea, such as the Hindu Mahasabha, Vishva Hindu Parishad, Shiv Sena, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, Hindu Sena, and Hindu Janajagruti Samiti. There is even one organization named the Akhand Hindustan Morcha that has this goal in its name. Many Hindu organizations believe that Akhand Bharat, stretching from Afghanistan to Myanmar and from Kashmir to Sri Lanka, is the true country they deserve. They advocate for this region, collectively called Akhand Bharat, as it reflects the ancient Hindu empires that once covered this entire area. They claim evidence for their pan-nation theory exists in the languages and cultures of these regions.

    According to these Hindu organizations, Mughal and Islamic rule, referred to as Ottoman colonization, and British colonization caused the decline of the greater Indosphere, the pan-nation. They believe that when the demand for Indian independence was ignited, Britain, who not wanting a superpower in Asia, conspired with the Indian National Congress under Nehru to fragment India and lose these territories. The subsequent Congress government neglected the idea of Akhand Bharat.

    However, they believe this is the perfect time to achieve this goal. Under Modi’s regime, they think they can reunite these territories with India and restore Akhand Bharat. Modi’s BJP aspires to continue ruling until 2047, the 100th anniversary of the Republic of India, and they believe it will happen during this period. BJP politicians have already expressed a desire to officially rename India to Bharat, its ancient name. Additionally, they have spoken about reclaiming Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, which was lost in the early years of independence. BJP supporters frequently use the map of Akhand Bharat in their campaigns to garner public support.

    Many believe that for those who support pan-India, the route to unification will be driven more by the economy than by the military. As India becomes economically richer and is expected to be the third-largest economy in the next decade, with per capita GDP also showing signs of improvement, there is a chance for closer collaboration with neighbors, potentially leading to an economic union or a strong confederation. Other countries in the region, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar are all facing deep economic crises and are largely reliant on China’s support. For Afghanistan and Pakistan, their opposition to India is primarily due to rising Islamic identity and funding from the Middle East for Islamic governance. However, it appears that the Middle East is now less interested in Islamic propaganda and these countries are now more connected with Chinese money. But Sri Lanka serves as an example of how a country can suffer from relying on Chinese money, and the Maldives might follow. These small countries reluctance towards India is only because of Chinese financial support. If Chinese financial support diminishes, countries like the Maldives, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar may have no other option but to collaborate with India. Bhutan already seems to be a collaborative country. These collaboration is expected to follow the confederation and the Akhand Bharth. 

    It’s certain that India will not attempt to induce unification into a single country through military means in the near future, as the Hindu organizations wish. Such actions would significantly hinder India’s goal of becoming a developed country by 2047. Instead, the BJP is likely to adopt a more tactical approach using economy, market, Media and Movies etc. With the interests of the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia in the region waning, increased financial investment and Indian influence could lead to greater cooperation and potentially a strong union, making Akhand Bharat a possible reality. If Modi continues into his third term, he will likely work towards this goal, as it is not only his vision but also a long-time demand of the BJP’s parent organization. It is certain he cannot move forward while ignoring it. Therefore, the result of the 2024 general election in India is not only important for India but also for the entire region.

  • West Bengal And Its Criminal Politics

    West Bengal And Its Criminal Politics

    West Bengal, an eastern province in India, was once considered the think tank of the country, producing a row of talents that India was proud of, including Rabindranath Tagore, Asia’s first Nobel laureate in literature, and Oscar-winning director Satyajit Ray, among many others. However, now West Bengal is infamous for politically affiliated criminal gangs and their lethal conflicts. Almost every month, there are reports of violent political gang wars, with the government led by Mamata Banerjee, leader of the All India Trinamool Congress, frequently accused of supporting these criminal activities. Following last year’s notorious Panchayat (Local Body) elections, it was reported that almost 50 people lost their lives. Political violence in rural Bengal continues unabated. Local body leaders are being killed, party offices are being set on fire, and opposition party workers are being brutally attacked. Events like those in Sandeshkhali, where party leaders turn into powerful authorities and rule through criminal activities, preventing other parties from conducting political activities, are not isolated incidents. These issues persist as West Bengal faces another significant election for the Lok Sabha in Delhi.

    Along with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, West Bengal is one of the few states in India where polling is spread across all seven phases of the marathon election, largely due to security concerns arising from political feuds. The Election Commission chose to conduct elections by selecting a small number of constituencies in each phase to provide tight security for the election process and to allow security agencies to take complete control of violence-prone hotspots, thus avoiding deadly fights. Despite tight security by different state and central agencies, sporadic incidents of violence were reported across the state during the six completed phases. The Election Commission of India reported receiving nearly 1,000 complaints following the last phase alone, and police noted clashes and threats in various areas. Each phase has witnessed significant violence, whereas the rest of the nation, including volatile Kashmir, has hosted elections peacefully. Interestingly, despite the high political tensions, a higher voter turnout was recorded in Bengal, in contrast to the lower responses seen in the rest of India.

    West Bengal is a crucial battleground in the Lok Sabha elections, contributing 42 seats to the 545-seat Lok Sabha (House of Commons), making it the third-largest contributor after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), aiming for a third consecutive term, needs to secure more seats from the state, having won only 18 out of 42 seats previously. The All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), the current ruling party in the state, is also strongly contesting the ongoing general election. The intense rivalry between these parties is leading to disastrous street fights and other criminal activities in the state. Formerly dominant parties like the Indian National Congress, and India’s biggest communist party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), are also contesting the Lok Sabha election, but this time as allies, turning it into a three-way fight between the BJP, AITC, and the CPIM-Congress Alliance.

    While the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) and BJP are now leading the violent politics, many experts believe that the past Communist years, which lasted for a long time, laid the groundwork for the current situation. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), or shortly CPIM, dominated the political sphere from the 1960s onward, displacing the Indian National Congress (INC) in the state. Like most communist governments worldwide, CPIM established groups capable of quashing political opposition in their strongholds. In some places, these groups evolved into more violent factions, including Naxals, who opposed the Indian Union. Even though CPIM distanced itself from Naxals, CPIM-supported groups, criminal gangs became increasingly common in West Bengal. The long rule of a single party, the bureaucratic culture of communism, economic decline of the state, and lack of employment all contributed to the evolution of political gang culture in Bengal. When CPIM was removed from power after a long tenure, many of these gangs migrated to the All India Trinamool Congress, where they continued their criminal activities. Interestingly, these gangs then started to target CPIM, their former supporters. However, with Narendra Modi’s seismic entry into national politics, the Bengal landscape was also shaken. The BJP replaced CPIM as the prime opposition party, possessing the finances, ideology, and power to challenge Trinamool Congress. And Bengal became the arena for these two heavyweights, further splitting the gangs into AITC-linked and BJP-linked factions. Many analysts fear that the BJP’s entry into Bengal may escalate political gang wars along communal lines, as the party represents Hindu nationalism, while Bengal’s large Muslim population, many of whom migrated from Bangladesh, stands firmly with the Trinamool Congress, paving the way for a potential communal clash in the future.

    We cannot deem it democracy when violence becomes the means to seize power. However, in Bengal, violence is increasingly becoming a tool for political parties to assert control and uphold their dominance. Political parties shamelessly nurture individuals associated with violence. Police and judiciary intervention is limited due to extensive support for gangs from lawmakers. We cannot expect an end to this cycle as both state and central governments are complicit in using these criminals, regardless of their party affiliations. However, The decline of Bengal persists, with no concerted efforts to rectify the situation.

  • The Hindu Rivalry in Maharashtra Politics

    The Hindu Rivalry in Maharashtra Politics

    Maharashtra, the richest state in India, has always been a stronghold for Hindu politics. It boasts a proud history with Chhatrapati Shivaji, the king who established a strong Hindu kingdom and fought against the Islamic Mughal Empire. The Hindu Maratha Kingdom and Shivaji remain sources of pride for Maharashtrians even today. Many organizations in Maharashtra claim Shivaji’s succession. Shiv Sena, one of the biggest political parties in Maharashtra, is a group of proud followers of Shivaji, formed by Shivaji devotee Bal Thackeray. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the current ruling party of India, also supports Shivaji’s pro-Hindu ideology. Naturally, the Hindu nationalist BJP and the Hindu regionalist Shiv Sena became allies, forming joint governments in Maharashtra. However, following interesting events after the 2019 general election, a serious crack formed in the relationship. These former Hindu brothers became the worst of enemies and now find themselves on opposing fronts, engaging in fierce battles against each other to remove the other from Maharashtra Politics.

    Maharashtra, including India’s financial capital, Mumbai, contributes the second-largest number of members to the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). After populous Uttar Pradesh, the 48 MPs from Maharashtra are crucial for forming the government in Delhi, making its politics always significant for Indian politics. Like many other Indian states, the Indian National Congress (INC) dominated the state after independence, continuously forming governments in the state until the 1990s. However, after Shiv Sena decided to enter parliamentary politics and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) provided strong support, forming a Hindu alliance, the political landscape in Maharashtra changed. The allies clinched power by removing INC. Then, two clear political spheres emerged: the Hindu alliance led by Shiv Sena and BJP, and the secular sphere led by INC and its schism, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

    With Narendra Modi’s entrance into the leadership of the BJP in 2014, the scenario changed dramatically once again. With Modi’s popularity, the BJP rose as the biggest Hindu party in Maharashtra, overtaking Shiv Sena in terms of obtaining seats in the state assembly and parliament. This eventually grew into a serious ego clash, leading to the collapse of their alliance. Shiv Sena then moved to a secular alliance with Congress and NCP, forming a government together at the state level. However, the BJP managed to split Shiv Sena, causing a significant number of Shiv Sena members in the state assembly to move to the BJP side. This led to the toppling of the Shiv Sena government with Congress and NCP. The BJP then formed a government with the splintered faction of Shiv Sena. Through these actions, reminiscent of Hindu mythologies, the rivalry between BJP and Shiv Sena intensified. Interestingly, the Election Commission granted the faction that joined the BJP official status, including the party’s symbol and colors. This marked the complete collapse of Shiv Sena and a thorough victory for Modi and the BJP. The remaining faction, led by Uddhav Thackeray, the son of founding leader Bal Thackeray, continued as Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and remained aligned with Congress.

    The ongoing general election is taking place in this tumultuous political landscape. Long-term allies are now fighting each other by leading separate fronts. Whoever secures more seats in the general election will gain an advantage in the upcoming crucial state assembly elections. It’s a race to determine who carries the Hindu legacy and who carries Shivaji’s legacy. The volatile election is filled with toxic comments and is attracting attention throughout the country. The comment of Shiv Sena (Udhav) leaders comparing Modi to Aurangzeb and Narendra Modi’s reply all took the headlines nationwide. Shiv Sena, which lost its official status to the faction that moved to the BJP side, now known as Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), is fighting alongside their old foes, the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The NCP was also split by the same strategy the BJP used on Shiv Sena. In the alliance, Shiv Sena (Uddhav) will contest in 21 seats, INC will contest in 17 seats, and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) will contest in 10 seats. Meanwhile, the BJP’s alliance, which includes the Election Commission’s officially recognized factions of Shiv Sena and NCP, will see the BJP contest in 28 seats, the official Shiv Sena faction in 15 seats, and the official NCP faction in 4 seats. With five phases of the election in the state, only one phase remains, scheduled for May 20th. 

    Opinion polls are predicting a close contest for both sides. Even though Modi remains a popular leader in the state, there is considerable sympathy for Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), NCP, and INC, which have also lost leaders to the BJP alliance. Many believe that while leaders have jumped to the BJP alliance, the supporters remain with the opposition. Election analysts point out that different vote banks in different sectors, who conventionally do not join, can be stitched together by the alliance of Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and Congress. Hindu nationalists, Muslim voters, and secular voters can join with the alliance. However, Maharashtra is crucial for Modi’s aspiration for a third term, so he is also contesting fiercely. The election result will reveal who is the true Hindu leader in Maharashtra and who is the inheritor of Shivaji’s legacy. So the result day will be a significant day in Maharashtra politics.

  • How the Congress leader’s racist remark stirred controversy in India?

    How the Congress leader’s racist remark stirred controversy in India?

    Racism is an accepted joke in India. It is visible in public spaces, offices, and almost everywhere. Indian movies often depict scenes making jokes about black people and glorifying white individuals. It’s a common trend where villains and hooligans are portrayed as black, while heroes and heroines are white. People from the northeast, primarily Mongoloid, were humiliated by being referred to as other nationalities like Chinese. Furthermore, Southern Indian individuals have been called derogatory terms such as “negroes” by Indo-European people in the northern regions. As Southern Indian and northeastern individuals become more educated and attain better financial conditions compared to northern India, and as they ascend to important positions in government bodies, derogatory jokes of this nature have gradually diminished. However, as the General Election season heats up, the racist comment made by the leader of the Indian National Congress (INC) has once again brought racism in India to the forefront as a contentious issue.

    Sam Pitroda, a telecom entrepreneur, advisor to former prime ministers, and the former chairman of the Indian National Congress’s overseas wing, made a controversial comment that suddenly became a trending topic in Indian political spheres. He stated that over the past 75 years, Indians had thrived in a harmonious environment where people had coexisted, despite occasional disputes. Indians managed to unite a nation as diverse as India, where individuals in the east resembled those from China, in the west like Arabs, in the north like Europeans, and perhaps in the south like Africans. Furthermore, he added that diversity was not a problem at all as Indians considered themselves as brothers and sisters. However, the comments comparing South Indians, predominantly of Dravidian ethnicity, to Africans, and likening North East Indian people to the enemy country Chinese, were suddenly thrust into India’s political sphere.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), facing a tough fight from the Indian National Congress-led alliance in the ongoing general election, found Sam’s comment to be a boon. They cunningly used the comment made by the 81-year-old when only 3 out of 7 total phases had been completed, with remaining places including some in South India, a stronghold of the Indian National Congress. However, the BJP shrewdly exploited the situation against the Indian National Congress, highlighting their British connection and Rahul Gandhi’s Italian heritage, the current leader and star campaigner of the Indian National Congress. The BJP has consistently accused foreign media of aiding the Congress, and this incident was skillfully directed towards the influence of foreign culture on Indian culture. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself entered the stage, stating that Pitroda’s comment reflects the mindset of the Indian National Congress and their white worship. He added that Indians revere Lord Krishna, who is depicted as black, and do not harbor racist thoughts.

    The Indian National Congress, which was gaining momentum in Indian election campaigns, was severely hit by Sam Pitroda’s comment. Prior to this incident, there was another comment by Pitroda that caused trouble for Congress by suggesting an inheritance tax on the new wealth management system. Modi also used this comment against Congress by interpreting it from another perspective. As Pitrodha repeatedly made controversial statements, Congress removed him from his position and stated they do not support his statements. They accused the BJP of using his statements in a manner that he did not mean, and claimed that the BJP is diverting voters’ attention from the real issues in Indian politics. Some leaders suggest that the Indian culture Modi advocates has more racist elements than Western culture. However, the comments celebrated in the Indian political space will likely trouble the Indian National Congress.

    India is a multi-ethnic, multilingual country. Many wonder how such a country with so much diversity can exist. However, the country demonstrates unity and economic progress. Many believe that comments like those made by Sam Pitroda will affect India’s diverse culture and integrity, while others believe that Indian society accepts this kind of racism as humor and will overlook it. However, timing was crucial, and the BJP effectively used the situation. It’s time to rethink the leadership of INC, the venerable party, as their own leaders consistently lead them into trouble and their victories handed to the BJP. Regardless of the political aspect, such comments have far reaching consequences.

  • What’s Behind The Dip In Voting Percentage In India?

    What’s Behind The Dip In Voting Percentage In India?

    It’s a massive effort being carried out by the Indian government and the Election Commission to conduct the mammoth general election. The voting schedule spans seven phases over a two-month period, involving almost 970 million voters. A significant amount of money is being spent on campaigns to bring almost every voter to the polling booths. Democracy is only complete with the participation of people. Although efforts have been made by the Election Commission and political parties, the first three phases of polls have concluded with a lukewarm response. In the first two phases, there was a dip in percentage turnout, and in the third phase, although comparatively better, it remained low. Why are Indian voters reluctant to cast their votes? Which party will benefit from the low turnout?

    After extensive campaigning by both the Election Commission and political parties for the general election, the first phase of polling was conducted on April 19th, but it marked a decrease in the recorded vote percentage. As many as 102 seats went to the polls in the first phase, with a final turnout of 66.14 per cent, a decrease under 4 percent from 70 per cent in 2019. This phenomenon sparked curiosity in the electoral arena as younger voters, increasingly active on social media discussing politics, are observed to be less engaged in actually casting their votes. All political parties were disappointed as they did not receive the expected turnout. The first phase included Tamil Nadu, a southern state where Modi heavily concentrated, but the voting percentage decreased. There was zero voter turnout in 6 districts in Nagaland amid a shutdown call by some organizations, and the BJP’s stronghold recorded a lower turnout than in 2019. The trend continued in the second phase as well. In the second phase, for 88 seats, the election was conducted on April 26, registering a dip of about 3 percentage points in the voter turnout from 69.64 per cent in 2019. Interestingly, states like Kerala, which usually have a high percentage of voting, also recorded a lower turnout.

    Despite some single-digit percentage decreases, considering India’s mammoth population, there will be thousands of people withdrawing from the voting process, which is a significant blow to Indian democracy. This goes against the trend of increasing voter turnout in the last election when youths were increasingly ready to participate. However, the recent dip shows that youths are not actively participating, posing a threat to democracy. Fortunately, in the third phase of polling, after calls from the Prime Minister and the Election Commission to encourage participation in the election, on May 7th, a turnout of 64.45% was recorded, which is closer to the turnout in 2019. Thanks to Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, and Tripura, but the most populous state with a higher number of constituencies, Uttar Pradesh, continued the trend of decreasing percentage, with only 52.24% voter turnout. This means almost half of the population did not take part in the election, raising concerns for the Election Commission.

    While the Election Commission attributes the lower voter percentage to the harsh summer, with temperatures rising over 40°C and heat waves making people reluctant to vote, there are also political causes behind this decline. As experiencing a dip in voter percentage from 2019, which had propelled Modi and the BJP to power, it surely will affect Modi’s third term wish. A lower turnout indicates that there is no wave for Modi and Hindu vote consolidation. Opposition leaders also point out that the lower voting percentage, with all their votes are ensured, and the high interest among Muslim voters in the election will give the opposition party an edge. Experts believe that people’s reluctance to vote in connection with many believe election results will not bring any change, Modi will surely win his third term, that opinion polls and news channels predict, oppositions have nothing to do with it. They have become disinterested in the election, expecting a sure win for the BJP. Some are also discontent with Modi’s campaign that says they will surely win more than 400 seats, that brings an idea to people that the election result is already decided. Though It is clear that the ruling party will suffer more with a lower percentage, opposition parties also fear that besides party votes neutral votes will not be casted, so, they all are working to fix the issues in the upcoming phases.

    Three out of the seven phases of the Indian general election have been completed, leaving four more phases before the scheduled vote counting on June 4th. However, with several phases still ahead, out of the 543 seats, the election process for over half, 283 seats, has concluded. The remaining places include important states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Punjab. Political parties are addressing the lower turnout, and they are increasing their efforts to bring more people to the polling stations in the upcoming phases. National leaders, including the Prime Minister, are urging citizens to cast their votes, while the Election Commission is also working to enhance facilities and attract more voters. However, as every vote counts in democracy, people’s reluctance to participate is not a good sign.

  • What makes Uttar Pradesh the Focal Point of Indian General Elections?

    What makes Uttar Pradesh the Focal Point of Indian General Elections?

    Uttar Pradesh is the powerhouse of Indian Politics. With an approximate population of 250 million, it would rank fifth, just below the fourth-placed Indonesia, if it was an independent country. The most populous state in India, wields considerable influence in the country’s representative parliamentary system. The state holds 80 seats, the highest number of seats, out of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (House of commons). Therefore, whoever secures more seats in Uttar Pradesh will determine who will wield power in New Delhi. In the ongoing 2024 general election, voting in Uttar Pradesh spans all seven phases, and unlike the previous elections, the fight is concentrated between the two powerful alliances as seen at the national level. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance and the Indian National Congress led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) are making final efforts to sway voters in their favor.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party and their allies swept almost every seat in the last two general elections. BJP is confident and hopes they can improve the tally from last time’s 62 seats out of 80 and 50% vote share. Uttar Pradesh contributed more to Modi’s magic in the recent Indian general elections or made Modi’s magic run possible. Several factors favor the BJP this time around. There is a notable absence of anti-incumbency sentiment, and Narendra Modi remains the most popular leader in the state. The positive mood towards the BJP-led Uttar Pradesh state government and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is another factor BJP will benefit from. The construction of Ram Mandir, infrastructure projects, and welfare programs for the common people will contribute. Under Modi’s leadership, BJP successfully broke the caste politics once prominent in the state, which is expected to decrease votes for opposition parties that mostly relied on caste politics.  The BJP maintains alliances with minor regional parties such as Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal Sonelal, and is competing in a total of 75 out of 80 seats, with the remaining 5 allocated to these regional parties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is standing from Varanasi, as in previous general elections.

    The Indian National Congress (INC), the venerable political party and the second-largest in India, lacks its former prominence in Uttar Pradesh. So, they are in alliance with the strongest regional party in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP). The alliance is part of the national-level I.N.D.I.A alliance, which gives a tight contest for Narendra Modi’s third term wish. A total of 62 seats out of 80 will be contested by the Samajwadi Party, 17 seats are allocated for the Indian National Congress, and 1 seat is for the Trinamool Congress. The last general election was a disaster for the Samajwadi Party and the Indian National Congress. The Samajwadi Party only got 5 seats, and the INC shrunk to one seat. Both parties’ recent great performances occurred in the 2009 general election, before Modi’s entry. In that election, the SP won 23 seats, and the INC won 21 seats from Uttar Pradesh. But in the next general election, the political landscape completely changed with Modi’s entry. However, this time, the alliance is confident to gather anti-BJP votes, secular votes, and Muslim votes. They expect that even though anti-incumbency sentiment is not visible outside, people have concerns about the lack of jobs and loss of recruitment in government posts, against the backdrop of unemployment in India. The alliance expects that the call for a caste census will successfully disrupt the Hindu unity stitched by Narendra Modi. Moreover, the decision of charming leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi to contest seats in Uttar Pradesh will delight the party’s supporters.

    The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also vying for seats in Uttar Pradesh. Though, Similar to the INC, they are encountering significant challenges in the state. They are contesting in 79 seats in Uttar Pradesh and without forming any major alliance. In the last election, they got the second-biggest tally in Uttar Pradesh with 10 seats. However, they had an alliance with SP in that election that collapsed soon after the election, and since then, the party has been in constant deterioration. Mayawati, the supreme leader, is not looking to contest in the Lok Sabha election, and her nephew, raised as her successor, is not looking like a charming leader. It’s clear they can’t make a stunning performance like in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, but if they repeat 2019’s result, BSP can remain in the political sphere of Uttar Pradesh, and they can be an important player if BJP doesn’t get a single-handed majority at the national level. The Communist Party is also contesting in Uttar Pradesh but doesn’t seem like it will make an impact.

    Uttar Pradesh has always perplexed political experts. The “Modi magic” in Previous general elections in Uttar Pradesh was also a wonder. And if Modi gets another sweep from the state, that will also be a wonder. Given the inherent bias in Indian opinion polls, they are not a reliable indicator. However, judging from the state’s mood and the polling rates of the preceding two phases, the BJP seems to hold the advantage. However, the contest between the BJP alliance and the INC alliance remains tight. While exit polls suggest a BJP sweep akin to the 2014 election, there’s anticipation for the Samajwadi Party to stage a comeback. INC and BSP expect seats. It’s evident that Uttar Pradesh plays a crucial role in shaping every parliament and the forthcoming one, so political parties are sparing no effort to sway Uttar Pradesh’s electorate. As someone aptly said, Uttar Pradesh will determine the rulers for New Delhi.

  • Can Rahul Gandhi Bring Back the Era of Caste Politics in India?

    Can Rahul Gandhi Bring Back the Era of Caste Politics in India?

    Castes, the subdivisions in Hindu society, have always been a political tool in India. People have voted for leaders from their caste, and caste-based politics, or caste politics, became prominent in Indian politics. More than development and basic infrastructure, people love leaders and parties that speak for their caste. In a country where marriages are arranged based on caste, caste-based voting is quite understandable. However, in recent years, under Modi’s regime, caste politics is facing tough challenges. Modi’s religious politics successfully blanketed caste politics; he brought all Hindu castes under an umbrella and called for Hindu unity, causing a significant setback for Indian opposition parties, which lost their conventional voting patterns. In response, opposition parties are protesting against religious politics and now calling for the return of caste politics. Rahul Gandhi, the prominent leader of the opposition party, repeated calls for a caste census, considered a significant move to bring back caste politics in India.

    Since independence, castes have been a factor in Indian elections, although their impact was not visible in initial elections due to sentiments lingering from the Indian independence movement and the animosity directed against Muslims from the Partition. However, there have been voices raised against the neglect of backward castes. Higher castes, such as Brahmins, have traditionally held positions in higher levels of administration, while backward castes, which are more numerous, have historically been sidelined and severely disadvantaged due to educational and economic backwardness. Dr. Ambedkar, a renowned Dalit leader in India, voiced concern about this situation and advocated for the reservation system to benefit the most backward classes, commonly known as scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. However, the system has failed to sufficiently meet the needs of the of backward castes. Consequently, politics based on caste empowerment slowly commenced in the Indian political sphere. Several leaders have emerged as caste advocates, and several parties have been formed to represent different castes.

    The Indian National Congress, now voicing for caste politics, was initially against it and used religious politics to suppress the rise of caste politics. However, caste-based mobilization and communities have become common. The Mandal Commission report, which emerged after extensive protests, shook the Indian political sphere. Movements like government job reservations, where government jobs are highly prestigious, shook the nation and led to the rise of caste-based political parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, and Lok Dal. The Bahujan Samaj Party, aimed at empowering backward castes, became a national-level party, marking the peak of caste politics while religious politics suffered. 

    However, corruption, greedy leaders, and dynasty politics resulted in the diminishing influence of caste-based political parties in later years. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, caste politics was undergoing a reduction in significance. The Bharatiya Janata Party, advocating Hindu nationalism and often expressing animosity towards Muslims, successfully united all castes and formed a massive Hindu vote bank. They appointed a Scheduled Caste and a Scheduled Tribe person to the country’s most respected position, the Indian presidency. Through this action, Ram Nath Kovind, a Scheduled Caste individual, and Draupati Murmu, the incumbent president from a Scheduled Tribe, assumed the presidential role, while Narendra Modi himself is from a backward community. They effectively reshaped the political landscape into Hindu nationalists versus Anti-Hindus. Opposition parties, including the Indian National Congress, are accused by the BJP of being sentimentally inclined towards Muslims.

    As Narendra Modi is seeking a third term, the opposition has begun addressing the strategy adopted by the BJP and is ready to undermine Hindu unity or religious politics and bring back caste politics. The Indian National Congress, once damaged by caste politics, is now the front-runner advocate for caste politics because they know it’s the only way to counter Narendra Modi’s dominance. They have started working on this strategy. Rahul Gandhi, the most influential leader in Indian politics after Narendra Modi, frequently advocates for a caste census. The caste census is a tool to determine the number of people in various castes and their economic and social status. Many expect that conducting a caste census will evoke a situation similar to that after the implementation of the Mandal Commission report, where people will vote according to their caste sentiment rather than religious interests, potentially splitting the Hindu vote bank created by the BJP. This could revive caste-based political parties that are now in alliance with the Indian National Congress. Therefore, the Opposition alliance and the Indian National Congress are actively promoting the caste census, repeatedly mentioning it in different rallies and including it in their election manifesto.

    Caste politics was once believed to improve the living conditions of backward castes and untouchables -But it doesn’t. Leaders of caste politics parties and their relatives became wealthier and more influential, but this did not benefit the common people, who still suffer from poverty and social backwardness. Caste politics has drawn criticism for worsening the state of people, with all caste-based political parties being highly corrupted and facing serious accusations, with some even in jail. Rahul Gandhi aims to introduce a caste census only for political purposes. But if the opposition wins, by campaigning for caste census, it may mark the return of caste politics in India.