Category: Elections 2024

  • Pro-China Party Emerges Victorious In Maldives Parliament Election

    Pro-China Party Emerges Victorious In Maldives Parliament Election

    The Maldives is drifting away from India. Following the Maldives parliamentary election held on April 21st, the pro-China party, People’s National Congress (PNC), emerged victorious. President Muizzu’s PNC’s win garnered significant attention due to its strong ties with China, which coincide with its expressed hostility towards India. The People’s National Congress (PNC) secured 66 out of the first 86 seats declared by the Elections Commission of Maldives, exceeding the threshold for a super-majority in the 93-member parliament. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which had aimed to obstruct efforts to reshape Maldivian diplomacy, faced a substantial setback after its previous landslide victory in the 2019 elections. The outcome was seen as a validation of Muizzu’s push for strengthened collaboration with China.

    Maldives, an archipelago nation made up of approximately 1,192 small coral islands spanning 800 kilometers near the equator, stands as one of the nations most susceptible to rising sea levels due to global warming. Despite its vulnerability, this premier luxury destination finds itself at the center of significant geopolitical tensions. China’s extensive investment in various infrastructure projects such as land reclamation, apartment complexes, and bridges has led to a notable shift in the country’s allegiance towards China. Although the Maldives lacks historical ties to China, the populace has increasingly embraced Chinese influence due to the economic and emotional advantages derived from these investments. China’s strategic move in the Indian Ocean, along with its significant financing of infrastructure initiatives in countries surrounding India, is being viewed as a potential strategy to ensnare smaller states in debt and exert influence as proxies for China. India is concerned that China may exploit the strategic positioning of the Maldives, Which is close to Indian shores. Historically, the Maldives enjoyed a close relationship with India, benefiting from historical ties and Indian assistance in safeguarding its sovereignty, including thwarting an invasion attempt by Sri Lanka. However, under President Muizzu’s tenure, there has been a notable shift away from India, evidenced by politicians, including members of the government, openly ridiculing Indian Prime Minister Modi and India. Tensions heightened when the Maldives chose to remove Indian military personnel deployed under an agreement. And also President Muizzu refrained from ceremonial visits to India, instead favoring engagements with Turkey and China. These events sparked campaigns against the Maldives in India, leading to a notable economic downturn for Maldives.

    In the midst of heightened geopolitical tensions, the resounding victory of Muizzu’s party reflects the prevailing sentiment within the state. Muizzu himself emerged triumphant in last September’s presidential election, representing the interests of the pro-China former president Abdulla Yameen, who was recently released following the overturning of his 11-year corruption conviction by the court. Before this parliamentary election, Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) and its allies held only eight seats in parliament, limiting Muizzu’s capacity to implement his agenda post his presidential victory. However, as campaigning for the parliamentary elections intensified this month, Muizzu strategically awarded significant infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, the principal opposition party, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which had previously held a super-majority, suffered a humiliating defeat, securing just a dozen seats. Additionally, independents secured 11 seats in the parliament.

    Despite the concerns raised by ecologists and climate activists about the future of the island nation, which stands among the first countries significantly affected by climate change, it seems that both the populace and politicians are not prioritizing it as they should. This sentiment is reflected in the election results, with Muizzu, the former construction minister, planning to pursue further apartment construction, land reclamation, and other large-scale projects that strain the capacity of the fragile coral islands. The political landscape is heavily influenced by Islamism, with foreign affairs failing to adequately address the realities of climate change. However, this victory is a green flag for Muizzu and China.

  • The Politics of Opinion Polls: Can We Rely on Indian Opinion Polls?

    The Politics of Opinion Polls: Can We Rely on Indian Opinion Polls?

    The mammoth Indian general election, unfolding across multiple phases starting on April 19th. anticipates the participation of over 96 million voters throughout its seven phases spanning two months. Results are slated for release on June 4th, marking nearly 50 days since the inauguration of the first polling phase. As India asserts itself as a global force in both economic and political spheres, the Indian election gains paramount importance internationally. Supporters of democracy closely scrutinize the intricate electoral processes, applauding Indian authorities for effectively engaging such a vast electorate. Nevertheless, numerous analysts voice concerns over potential flaws in the democratic system. The prevalence of smartphones among the populace, often outweighing educational resources, exacerbates susceptibility to misinformation and paid propaganda. From television to cinema, there is a considerable propaganda drive aimed at shaping the mood of the nation, often overshadowing real issues. Opinion polls are one of the tools used in Indian elections, often tailored to specific interests and potentially influencing the collective mood of the nation. In a country like India, celebrated for its mob mentality, opinion polls are considered to have a significant impact.

    Opinion polls have been a fixture in elections worldwide for many years, utilized by political parties and the press in various democracies such as France and the United States for centuries. Over time, they have developed foolproof sampling, leveraging technology to minimize inaccuracies. Nonetheless, from the outset, many have raised objections to opinion polls, questioning their reliability and their influence on voters and politicians. Several countries have implemented regulations governing opinion polls, and allegations of biased funding against certain well-known polling agencies have undermined their credibility, leading to doubts about their impartiality. As opinion polls stir considerable tumult in the Western world, India, the largest democracy, has only recently adopted this trend in the 21st century. While some press and agencies had conducted opinion polls previously, they did not gain much popularity. However, the proliferation of television and rivalry between television channels propelled opinion polls into prominence in India. Initially confined to major cities, India’s opinion polls expanded through technological advancements and substantial funding. Indeed, opinion polling has burgeoned into one of the most lucrative industries in India, with television channels, the press, and YouTube channels vying for the services of surveying agencies or establishing their own survey teams.

    Opinion polls in India have peaked in the last 10 years, with many inaccuracies regarding the winners of constituencies and completely wrong predictions at the state level, although at the national level, most opinion polls predicted the general mood. However, questions persist about the sampling methods and the impact of opinion polls on Indian people. The population is highly diverse, encompassing various ethnicities, religions, views, and languages, and individuals often feel ashamed, fearful, or dishonest about revealing their voting preferences. Despite education levels, factors such as family influence, caste dynamics, mob mentality, and celebrity endorsements heavily shape voter mentality. Additionally, millions of people may never encounter any opinion poll.

    Though The result of opinion polls have become celebrated in the television and social media. In this context, Indian opposition parties accuse Indian opinion polls of being highly corrupted and influenced by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and business interests. They claim that television channels and major agencies, currently funded by BJP-linked business entities, propagate the notion that the opposition is weak and that Modi will secure most seats. This creates a “Bandwagon Effect”, prompting voters to support the candidate perceived to be winning in the polls. Those familiar with the parliamentary system tend to favor the party projected to win, making it a potent election strategy. The river of Opinion polls  from the past year predicting Modi’s third term and the humiliation of the opposition are likely to influence public opinion.

    According to the findings of numerous television, print, and YouTube channels engaged in conducting surveys, many of which boast considerable sample sizes of up to 200,000, all indicate that the BJP is likely to emerge victorious. Despite the Election Commission’s mandate prohibiting opinion polls within 48 hours before polling commences, the released results have already shaped a favorable narrative for the BJP. Voters are primarily interested in electing members from the party projected to govern the state, or they prefer candidates aligned with the ruling party over those going to sit in the opposition bloc. Thus, opinion polls are poised to have a significant impact on the outcome of the Indian general election.

  • Ruling Party Gets Heavy Defeat in South Korean Parliamentary Elections

    Ruling Party Gets Heavy Defeat in South Korean Parliamentary Elections

    People showed a red signal to the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in the South Korean Parliamentary Election. The party, along with a number of prominent leaders, suffered defeat in the 22nd general election, which was held on April 10th to choose 300 lawmakers. Under the leadership of progressive leader Lee Jae-myung, who was the target of an assassination attempt earlier this year, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea reaped a landslide victory. The Democratic Party secured 161 seats out of the 254 constituency seats where members are chosen by the direct voting system. By combining the seats gained by the allies and the proportional seats, Lee Jae-Myung can easily form a strong government.

    With an overall turnout of 67 percent, the highest in 32 years, the shift of the wind was sensible and became evident with the election results. The People Power party, a conservative party which had won the presidential election two years before, saw conservative figure Yoon Suk Yeol take oath as president. Yoon’s campaign was successful in upholding Korean conservatism. However, the people decided to vote against the People Power party in the parliamentary election to replace the government under the prime ministership of Han Duck Soo, who was accused of several instances of corruption and misdeeds. The aggressive actions against opposition leaders, rising inflation, and the ongoing doctors’ strike all contributed to the loss of the People Power party, which only secured 109 seats, a combined number of constitutional and proportional seats. 

    The election has piqued the interest of the international media since it is perceived as a showdown between liberalism and conservatism, a trend that is currently evident in all democracies. Furthermore, Korea is perceived as a significant cultural force, and the belief that it is undergoing a rapid social revolution only adds to the curiosity 

    As the Prime Minister and leader of the disastrous election campaign, Han Duck Soo, along with his colleagues and senior politicians, took responsibility and offered their resignations. However, the result is actually a severe blow to President Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon accepted the result and promised a revision, though conventionally, a parliamentary election is considered as an assessment of the president or a referendum, and he failed. As many political analysts previously predicted, he planned to implement significant changes in domestic policies by leaning towards a conservative agenda before, but now it seems impossible. It’s clear that as the opposition holds the majority, they can block presidential vetoes and the passage of constitutional amendments. Yoo will be a lame duck leader as his rule has three more years in his five-year tenure.

    In terms of foreign policy, the South Korean parliamentary election is not having any serious effect, but the result is saddening for the United States and Japan. The relationship is at its warmest point, and they admire Yoon. However, the current prime minister has often adopted neutral stances on the Taiwan and Ukraine issues. Nevertheless, as the country highly values the international policies it has crafted with the United States and Japan, the election result will not have much impact

    The election result is hailed by the media as punishment for the previous government, which brought the people’s lives into misery with price hikes. Many experts point out that South Korean people prefer liberalism over conservatism, and it’s true. With the alliance of the Democratic Party and other liberal parties like the Progressive Party and the New Progressive Alliance winning seats, it clearly shows the mood of the nation. Additionally, many small parties also secured seats in the election by capitalizing on discontent with conventional parties. Despite being founded weeks before the election under the former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, the new Rebuilding Korea Party garnered 12 seats.

    Lee Jae-myung, the winner of the election, addressed the victory. As a politician who is always in the headlines of newspapers and whose journey started from a child factory worker to the prime ministership, he is an interesting figure to study. He has been plagued with several scandals, though Korean people chose him to replace the Han Duck soo government, which failed to address inflation and the cost of living crisis. Lee acknowledged that he will work on it. Korean people are showing that they have their own priorities. Conservatism may not be accepted in the face of price hikes.

  • Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Narendra Modi is on a mission to sweep the upcoming Indian general election. He continuously states in rallies that he will secure 400+ seats out of the total 545 seats. Perhaps it is merely an election strategy to ensure the common perception that Modi will continue for a third term, though it’s clear that if Modi wants a third term single-handedly, he has to expand his influence to the southern states, which are still opting for the rival Indian National Congress and its allies.

    When opinion polls and election scientists predict the loss of current seats and anticipate tough fights from states where Modi’s BJP has secured the majority of their seats, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra, they are focusing on other states that traditionally haven’t contributed to the BJP. South India is now in the radar of the BJP. The people of southern states, with different ethnicities and languages compared to the rest of India, always follow different trends. But Modi has proven his winning mindset before and is not backing down. By increasing rallies and setting up thorough election campaigns, Modi is getting ready to reap more seats from the south.

    South India, the region comprising the five states and one union territory, which are Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Puducherry, contributes almost 130 seats out of 545 seats. Every state has different political scenarios, different leaders, and different alliances. The stronghold of the Indian National Congress has the government in Karnataka and Telangana. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the ruling parties are allied with the Indian National Congress. In Andhra Pradesh, a Congress faction, YSR Congress, is in administration, and the only government in alliance with the BJP is in Puducherry.

    Tamil Nadu, known as the paradise of regional parties, has a myriad of parties advocating Tamil nationalism, representing various castes, and fans associations of movie stars. It holds the most number of seats in South India, with 39 seats in the upcoming general election being contested by three alliances. The INDI alliance, comprising the Indian National Congress, Tamil Nationalist Party DMK, Communist parties, and Dalit Party VCK, is at the forefront. The All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance includes some Islamist parties, and the NDA, the BJP-led front, comprises the Vanniyar Caste Party Pattali Makkal Katchi and factions of All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The state gave one or two seats to the BJP in the last elections, and opinion polls suggest they may gain some seats this time, improving upon their previous general election’s record of zero seats. Expectations are for 3-4 seats to be won here, while opinion polls favor the INDI alliance. However, Modi is confident and hardworking, conducting numerous rallies and expecting to secure more seats from Tamil Nadu.

    Karnataka, which has 28 seats, is the only BJP stronghold in South India. Previously, it formed governments, and BJP surprisingly secured 26 seats in the last Indian general election. However, the state assembly election followed by the general election was swept by the Indian National Congress. BJP formed an alliance with the regional party JDS to repeat the victory of the last time and sweep all seats. However, this time, the Congress is putting up a tight fight under a strong state-level leader. It is expected that the BJP-led NDA alliance can secure 15-18 seats out of the 28 available. In a state known for Hindu-Muslim tensions, BJP will definitely use Hindu sentiments to secure more seats.

    In Andhra Pradesh, which contributes 25 seats, there are multi-front fights. The ruling YSR Congress, a faction of Congress, is on one side, while the Indian National Congress is on the other. Additionally, the BJP leads an alliance with the strong regional party TDP and the party of movie star Pawan Kalyan. Like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh has many parties associated with movie stars and caste-based parties. However, as the general election coincides with the state assembly election, the sentiment against the ruling state government largely determines the election results. In the last general election, the YSR Congress party led with 22 seats out of 25, with the rest going to the TDP. But this time, the Indian National Congress and BJP are also contenders. With the alliance of TDP and the Modi factor, BJP is expecting to secure 3-4 seats from Andhra Pradesh.

    Kerala is the state that has never given a Member of Parliament to the BJP. The BJP doesn’t have any significant role in the political landscape of the state, which has 20 seats and is highly divided between the CPIM-led LDF alliance and the INC-led UDF alliance. Even though the BJP has some strongholds in the state, they didn’t secure any seats in the last general election for parliament. Out of the 20 seats, 19 were won by UDF and 1 by LDF, but the subsequent state assembly election was won by LDF. However, with the state facing severe economic struggles and the rise of Islamism, there is hope for the BJP. Narendra Modi has conducted several rallies, and they are expecting to secure more than 4 seats from the state in the changed political landscape.

    Telangana contributes 17 seats to the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). In the upcoming general election, there is expected to be a multi-front fight for these 17 seats. The INC, BJP, and the strong local party BRS, along with many communist and religious parties, are all participating. In the last general election in 2019, BRS secured the highest number of seats with 9, followed by BJP with 4, and then Congress with 3. However, the INC made a comeback following the state assembly election. Currently, the INC holds the advantage in opinion polls, while the BJP is gaining momentum and hopes to capitalize on the collapse of the BRS Party. BJP expects to secure more than 4 seats, and there is a possibility for BJP to capitalize Hindu-Muslim religious tensions.

    Puducherry, the Union Territory, an old French territory, has one seat in the House of Commons, which was won by the INC last time. Then, the BJP-led alliance won the state assembly election, and they are expecting to win the seat by tightening the contest.

    It’s clear that the Indian National Congress has the upper hand in South India. However, the BJP will pose a tough challenge, and the growth of the BJP in the region is evident. They are gradually expanding into more regions and states, with Modi giving importance to the region. Increasing their tally from the current 29 out of 130 seats to more will help them secure additional seats and decrease the number of seats for their prime rival, the INC, as they too expect to gain more seats from the region. Predictions suggest 35 to 40 seats for the BJP in the upcoming general election, and sometimes it may even be more. Modi has proven before that he can work wonders in general elections.

  • Will the 2024 General Election Mark the End of Indian Communism?

    Will the 2024 General Election Mark the End of Indian Communism?

    The Modi era is redefining Indian politics. The Indian political landscape has undergone drastic changes since Modi assumed the prime ministership after the 2014 general election. Under his leadership, the ruling party, BJP’s influence has expanded across India, with many states that were previously inaccessible to even the mighty Indian National Congress now showing no reluctance to turn in favor of the BJP. As a result, several political parties, including the Indian National Congress, are experiencing their lowest representation in the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). Indian communist parties, once significant players in Indian politics, have also suffered significant losses, with their remaining strongholds crumbling during what Modi’s supporters refer to as his “Ashwamedha”. Despite India’s large working-class and untouchable populations, which were once seen as fertile ground for communism, the country now appears poised to eradicate the last vestiges of communist influence.

    In a country that maintained a highly amicable relationship with the Soviet Union, numerous communist-affiliated parties emerged. Among these, The Communist Party of India (CPI) and its factions are considered the foremost representatives of communism in India. The Communist Party of India was founded in 1925 in Kanpur and actively participated in the resistance against British rule and Indian landlords. The party garnered support from the people by addressing common issues such as casteism and advocating for land reforms. Following independence in 1947, the party gained popularity at the national level and emerged as the second-largest party in the early Lok Sabha elections. It also formed governments in many states through democratic elections.

    The Communist Party of India (CPI) and its two divisions, the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPIM) and the Communist Party of India Marxist Leninist (CPIML), are considered the strongest communist parties in the Indian political landscape. There are many other divisions, including several banned divisions, who do not agree with the Indian constitution and fight against the Indian military, commonly referred to as the “Naxals”. The CPI, CPIM, and CPIML are also contesting in the upcoming general election. They are in coalition with the INDI alliance and contesting in many constituencies. 

    CPIM, the strongest and only remaining national party, is contesting most seats. They are part of the government in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, but they fear they will lose their status as a national party if they do not make an impressive performance in the upcoming general election. CPIM is contesting in Kerala, once a stronghold, and in West Bengal, Tripura, and several pockets in the states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, etc., with the support of the Indian National Congress. They do not have any national ambition, but they want to preserve their election symbol, the prestigious Hammer sickle and star, and their national party status. They hope they can garner anti-Modi votes in Kerala and anti-Mamata votes in Bengal and contribute to the INDIA alliance to form a government. However, considering the ground reality, the possibilities are low. In Kerala, their only remaining fortress in India, they failed to form an alliance with the Indian National Congress, and they are fighting each other. It is expected that INC has the upper hand in Kerala with the people’s hatred toward the incumbent communist government. In West Bengal and Tripura, once strongholds of CPIM, the party is now very weak, and it will be a wonder if they secure seats there as they face stiff competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party, though they expect to secure some single-digit seats in Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan as part of the INDI alliance.

    CPI and CPIML, other important communist parties, have already lost their national party status. They contest in the election just to have their representation in the Lok Sabha. They are contesting in their strongholds like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Bihar, and Jharkhand. CPI expects some single digits from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, while CPI ML expects seats from Bihar. All three prominent communist parties are getting ready for the endgame because they know that if they are removed from one state, a comeback is almost impossible. In every state where communist parties have been removed from power, people don’t choose them again. West Bengal, the state they ruled for almost 40 years, doesn’t offer any scope for them now. And in Tripura, they vanished. Therefore, continuing to be represented from their remaining stronghold is important for them. Many opinion polls and reports are predicting a blow for the communist party. Combining all three parties at the national level, a mere five to ten seats are predicted.

    There are many reasons why communist parties are failing. Firstly, continuous splitting has led to the division of vote banks and reduced the bargaining power and wealth of the party. Even though they are now cooperating, they remain split. Additionally, there is a lack of vision from leadership, shifting policies, increasing caste-based politics since the 1990s, and a Hindu wave since 2014. The party leadership is considered greedy, and many are reported to be corrupt. Serious corruption accusations are rising against leaders, including the remaining communist Chief Minister, Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who is expected to be arrested after the election. It is clear that people are moving away from communist parties, and the party struggles to reach a new audience except for some university students. And interestingly, The current ruling party of India, the BJP, considers communists as anti-nationals. Therefore, this election will decide the future of communism in India.

  • Turkey’s Local Elections: Opposition Stuns with Victory Over Erdogan’s Party

    Turkey’s Local Elections: Opposition Stuns with Victory Over Erdogan’s Party

    Last year, Erdogan comfortably won another presidential term amidst severe economic crises, mishandling of natural disasters, and a steep decline in living standards. This underscored his enduring influence and highlighted the weakness of the opposition. Erdogan, Turkey’s leader for the past two decades as both Prime Minister and President, adeptly navigated challenges to his rule. He successfully thwarted a potential military coup, triggered by constitutional provisions aimed at safeguarding secularism in the country. Moreover, Erdogan orchestrated a referendum to transition Turkey’s governance from parliamentary to presidential, driven by his desire to retain power. He effectively advanced Islamic and Ottoman sentiments, sacrificing the progress Turkey had achieved since the World War. The reopening of Hagia Sophia after years of closure symbolizes this transition from modern secular principles to embracing Turkey’s Ottoman aspirations

    In Turkey, elections encompass six levels of government: Presidential (National), Parliamentary (National), Municipality Mayoral (Local), District Mayoral (Local), Provincial or Municipal Council Member (Local), and Muhtar (Local). Less than a year ago, both presidential and parliamentary levels were conducted, and Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) emerged stronger, leaving Turkey’s main opposition parties disheartened. However, after a year in the local elections, we are witnessing a surge in support for opposition parties in the local level elections.

    It’s no surprise that the recent local elections brought about a remarkable shift, leading to exuberant celebrations well into the early hours. With inflation soaring close to 70% and voter dissatisfaction amplified by a significant increase in interest rates. Erdogan’s strategy of leveraging Islamic identity politics has faced challenges. The austerity measures endorsed by Erdogan since his reelection have placated Western markets but have alienated key AKP supporters. In contrast, the charismatic and influential opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu’s ability to appeal to conservative voters has bolstered the CHP, making him a formidable adversary compared to the lackluster opposition candidate fielded last May.

    In Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, the incumbent mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu, convincingly defeated Mr. Erdogan’s candidate. Imamoğlu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) also achieved sweeping victories in other major cities, securing landslide wins in the capital, Ankara, and easily in Izmir. Local elections in Turkey’s key cities, notably Istanbul and Ankara, hold significant importance in the country’s political and economic landscape. The mayors of these cities play prominent roles in national politics. In a surprising turn of events, the CHP managed to secure victories in conservative towns and villages that constitute Erdogan’s electoral stronghold in Anatolia and near the Black Sea. The gains made by the Islamic far-right New Welfare Party (YRP) in those regions, at the expense of the AKP, further compounded the president’s woes.

    The recent election has injected enthusiasm into Turkish politics. As a fresh challenger heralding a new era for Turkish democracy, Ekrem İmamoğlu’s securing of a second term as Istanbul’s mayor sparked jubilant celebrations among his supporters. The victory of Turkey’s main opposition party in the local elections exceeded expectations, offering the Republican People’s Party (CHP) a glimpse of a promising future. Social media platforms overflowed with celebratory memes, and Istanbul residents took to the streets, blaring music and, in some cases, removing posters of Erdogan’s mayoral candidate. Addressing his supporters after a night of historic wins, Ekrem İmamoğlu declared it “The Dawn of a New Era”.

    The opposition’s strongest showing in decades is also a success for another leader called Ozgur Ozel. Following its defeat in the general election last year, the CHP appointed a new, younger leader, the former pharmacist and trusted candidate Özgür Özel, who is perceived as a longtime ally of İmamoğlu. Both represent a shift within the opposition, with the ability to appeal to conservative and Kurdish factions of Turkish politics beyond the party’s traditional stronghold. Together, they successfully united all anti-Erdogan votes.

    At the same time, the setbacks for Erdogan’s AKP reflect years of internal turmoil. While the president has maintained popularity, the party’s overreliance on his charisma has intertwined their fates. Despite Erdogan’s prominent role in the campaign to reclaim Istanbul from İmamoğlu, the party fielded a mayoral candidate unlikely to emerge as a potential successor – a figure Erdogan sorely needs but seems hesitant to endorse. Additionally, the AKP faces challenges from far-right parties, which have split their voter base. The emergence of Islamic parties like the New Welfare Party (YRP) will definitely challenge AKP’s support

    Considering Erdogan’s firm control over institutional patronage and influence networks, honed over his more than two decades in power, it would be premature to interpret these results as a definitive turning point. However, they provide ample reasons for optimism among secular and liberal voters. Most notably, Sunday’s significant rebuke may deter Mr. Erdogan from pursuing additional constitutional amendments to enable him to seek yet another presidential term.

  • Potential Third Term Victory Looms for Modi and BJP

    Potential Third Term Victory Looms for Modi and BJP

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confident in his assertions. He has reiterated in the previous assembly meetings in parliament, the Republic Day ceremony, and numerous rallies that he will undoubtedly win the upcoming election. He has also stated his aim to secure over 400 seats in the House of Commons. This isn’t mere boasting; Modi is acutely aware of the ground realities. Having started his career as a tea seller and grassroots worker, he understands the pulse of the nation.

    A potential third term would pave the way for the BJP to implement its ideology, such as Hindu nationalism, with greater authority. While many express concerns about the potential authoritarianism and one-party state that a third term for Modi could entail, the opposition seems ill-prepared to counter the BJP’s groundwork and ambitions. 

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already completed seat distribution among its allies and commenced a significant number of candidate selections for the upcoming election marathon. They are confident in their prospects, buoyed by the BJP’s favorable standing in opinion polls. Even though the aspiration of securing over 400 seats out of the total 545 seems ambitious according to current opinion polls, the BJP has a history of surpassing such predictions. In the last Lok Sabha election in 2019, opinion polls underestimated the BJP’s performance, predicting that only alliances could surpass the 272-mark, yet the BJP single-handedly crossed the 300-seat threshold.

    Expanding into regions where the party traditionally had limited presence, such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and West Bengal, while maintaining dominance in Hindi-speaking states and western India, suggests that the BJP could easily exceed expectations. By positioning strong candidates and allocating seats based on ground surveys and reports, the party is laying extensive groundwork. Indian media’s overwhelming support for Modi and the government is evident, with a focus on celebrating the BJP rather than reporting on common people’s issues. News channels have taken on a quasi-spiritual role, projecting Modi as a spiritual leader and guru, particularly during events like the Ayodhya temple opening ceremony.

    Given the importance of social media in a country with the highest number of smartphone users and mobile connectivity in the world, the BJP’s successful utilization of social media is noteworthy. Their campaigns are saturating Indian cyberspace, further bolstering their electoral strategy.

    The BJP benefits greatly from the weakness of the opposition, particularly the Indian National Congress (INC). While analysts warn of increasing authoritarian tendencies within the BJP, the Indian opposition struggles to compete with Modi, even in media representation. Narendra Modi has openly expressed his goal of achieving a “Congress Mukt Bharat”, aiming to eliminate the main opposition party, the INC, from Indian politics. The INC’s presence in the media and social media platforms has significantly diminished, with their funds frozen due to actions by the tax department. Moreover, notable leaders, including former chief ministers, are defecting to the BJP amidst targeted investigations by the Enforcement Directorate into financial irregularities. This move not only weakens the opposition but also potentially shields those joining the BJP from further scrutiny by the Enforcement Directorate. Alongside these stringent measures against the opposition and the acquisition of media outlets, as well as the expansion of influence over the executive and judiciary, some analysts argue that this trend is leading to the increasing dominance of Modi and the BJP across all spheres of governance.

    Simultaneously, some experts highlight the unpredictability of Indian voters and they argue that opinion polls are pointless. Indian elections are inherently uncertain due to the vast diversity of the electorate, comprising 970 million individuals from various ethnicities, languages, and cultures. With an expected voter turnout of over 60%, the electorate’s highly emotive nature can lead to abrupt shifts in political preferences. Historical events, such as the 1991 general election, where the unforeseen assassination of Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi reshaped the electoral landscape, serve as poignant reminders of this unpredictability. Similarly, the decision by the Vajpayee-led BJP government to call for early elections, despite favorable opinion polls, led to an unexpected mandate for the INC.

    This unpredictability remains a significant factor, offering hope to the opposition until the final polls are concluded. Opposition parties anticipate potential seat losses for the BJP over the course of its ten-year tenure. Additionally, internal conflicts between new BJP leaders who come from other parties  and traditional party figures add an intriguing dimension to the political landscape. The formation of alliances between regional parties and the Congress presents an opportunity to garner diverse support, particularly amidst ongoing issues such as farmer protests, unemployment, and price hikes.

    However, the current dominance of the Indian media, largely funded by BJP-linked business interests, poses a challenge for the opposition. Despite aspirations for a 400-seat victory, the reality remains that the Congress lacks the capacity to diminish the BJP’s majority, touching the crucial 272-mark.

    When Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s inaugural Prime Minister, along with the freedom fighters, embraced democracy in a largely illiterate state, it signified a courageous step forward. Despite facing skepticism and ridicule initially, Nehru diligently fostered a democratic ethos in India. Even amidst criticism, he acknowledged and rewarded journalists and cartoonists for their critiques, showcasing his dedication to democratic principles. However, following Nehru’s era, India experienced a gradual decline in these values, with corruption, dynastic politics, horse-trading, and moral bankruptcy becoming prevalent.

    The BJP, under the leadership of Modi, emerged as a response to the scams and corruption of the previous Congress-led government. Failing to address these issues, Congress paved the way for the BJP’s rise, which now faces an election without many negative factors weighing it down. With its roots in the Hindu nationalist organization RSS, it’s evident that a third term for the BJP would align closely with the RSS’s directives. This third term could potentially redefine India, moving it further away from the principles established by Nehru’s government in 1947.

  • Any Ray of Hope for the Indian National Congress?

    Any Ray of Hope for the Indian National Congress?

    The Indian National Congress, renowned as the architect of modern India and often referred to as the grand old party, still holds significant sway nationwide. However, as India approaches its 18th Lok Sabha election, even the Congress party itself doesn’t foresee surpassing the 272 – mark threshold independently. Despite its pivotal role in the Indian independence movement and subsequent politics, the party now grapples with mounting a substantial challenge against Modi’s potential third term in the upcoming general election. Despite being the second-largest party in parliament, it falls short of the necessary strength to secure the official opposition leader post, lacking a mere 10% of total Lok Sabha seats. This situation highlights issues of faltering leadership, nepotism, and dynastic politics, demonstrating how these factors can erode a political organization over time. With its participation in the newly formed INDIA alliance for the impending election, the prospects of forming a government seem dim. The lingering question persists: Can the Indian National Congress reclaim its former influence and prestige?

    The prevailing uncertainty stems from a noticeable lack of leadership within the party. The absence of strong leaders often undermines political entities. Through its preference for the Nehru dynasty, the Congress party marginalized other noteworthy leaders, resulting in the formation of splinter factions that have significantly diminished the INC’s national standing. Additionally, the neglect to cultivate leaders at the state level has led to the loss of several states. Increasingly, remaining leaders are defecting to the BJP, encouraged by governmental restrictions on Congress funding and the BJP’s use of investigative agencies against Congress figures. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s prominence within the party as the current leader from the Nehru Family, both he and his sister Priyanka Gandhi remain hesitant to directly confront Modi, potentially contributing to a lack of confidence in the current leadership.

    However, the INC is currently in the process of announcing its candidates, though it is contesting fewer seats than in previous elections. The final allocation of seats will be determined by a formula established after deliberations within the INDIA alliance. Despite some dissatisfaction with Modi’s prolonged tenure and his emphasis on Hindutva and Hindu unity to consolidate votes, Congress aims to bring attention to issues such as unemployment and socio-economic challenges. However, financial constraints, fund freezes, and media outlets aligned with the BJP have hindered the dissemination of Congress’s manifesto. Media coverage has largely focused on narratives of Hindu unity and the construction of the Ayodhya temple, overshadowing Congress’s campaign efforts. Despite attempts to revive caste politics to divide Hindu vote banks, these efforts have yet to yield significant results. Furthermore, the BJP has successfully fragmented the Muslim vote bank by supporting regional and Islamic parties like AIMIM in the previous election.

    Although some undemocratic tendencies from the BJP contribute to the current dilemma of INC, political analysts also hold INC accountable. Some INC leaders still anticipate replicating the election results of 2004, when all opinion polls projected INC’s loss but it formed the government. However, analysts argue that the party is in a weaker state than in 2004. INC’s prospects rely on strengthening their party’s foundation, which entails identifying and promoting new national-level figures, given Rahul Gandhi’s declining appeal; he has already failed to effectively challenge Modi. If Congress can present a strong contender against Modi, it could potentially attract all the anti-Modi votes. Yet, there is potential for Congress to address this gap. Moreover, investing in the development of state and local leaders is vital for building a robust foundation. In crucial states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Bihar, once strongholds of the INC and where numerous Lok Sabha seats are at stake, Congress faces significant challenges. Without winning more seats from these states, INC cannot form a government in New Delhi. While Congress is weak in these areas, BJP is increasingly successful, and these states contribute significantly to Modi’s successful tenure. Restoring the party’s former prominence in these states is crucial for achieving its aspirations in Delhi. Without addressing these core issues, merely forming random alliances, Congress’s return to power remains a mere aspiration.

    The BJP’s significant strength has raised concerns about potential authoritarian tendencies, emphasizing the urgent need for Congress to stage a comeback. A robust opposition nationwide is crucial for safeguarding democracy, serving as a vital check against unchecked authority. However, Congress appears hesitant to pursue bold initiatives or launch vigorous campaigns, compounded by the Nehru family’s reluctance to cede control. This reluctance impedes the party’s ability to form alliances with local parties, some of which have distanced themselves due to concerns about dynastic politics. Additionally, the BJP’s tactics, such as imprisoning opposition leaders and enticing defections through financial incentives and threats, present formidable obstacles. Moreover, the freezing of the main party’s funds hampers Congress’s ability to engage effectively in elections. It is imperative for Congress to acknowledge its shortcomings, assert itself as a legitimate opposition entity, and adopt proactive measures to uphold Indian democracy. Failing to do so risks undermining India’s democratic principles, potentially leading to a de facto single-party system.

  • Indian Election 2024: Can Trinamool Congress Save their Fortress?

    Indian Election 2024: Can Trinamool Congress Save their Fortress?

    The All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), ranked as the third-largest party in the Indian Parliament, is bracing for a crucial moment. In their bastion of Bengal, they confront a formidable challenge from the BJP, with exit polls hinting at potential setbacks in a state pivotal to the Lok Sabha. A stumble in the impending general election could spell the loss of power for Trinamool Congress in the Bengal state assembly. Despite recent setbacks and a narrowed focus on Bengal, Tripura, and Meghalaya, the party is mustering all its resources for the upcoming polls. Led by the steadfast Mamata Banerjee, they are contesting all assembly seats independently, aiming for maximum representation. Their goal is unequivocal: to emerge as the leading opposition force against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and reclaim their national standing, irrespective of the prevailing sentiment in opinion polls.

    Ahead of the election announcement, the Trinamool Congress has introduced its full roster of 42 candidates in Bengal. Spearheading the election campaigns is the formidable Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of Bengal. Among the candidates are ousted MP and charismatic female leader Mahua Moitra, alongside former cricketer Yousuf Pathan.

    In order to challenge the BJP on the national level, Mamata Banerjee and the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) have taken the lead in building the opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A. But because of disputes over seat sharing, AITC is running unaffiliated with I.N.D.I.A parties like the Indian National Congress and the Communist Party of India in West Bengal. The opposition has expressed shock and dissatisfaction at this move, although Trinamool has defended its position by emphasizing the state’s real circumstances.  The difficult relationship between the Indian National Congress  has been exacerbated by AITC’s refusal to give up more seats, particularly outside Bengal. Furthermore, even if AITC and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) oppose the BJP together, their long-standing animosity that dates back to decades makes any potential partnership difficult to achieve. As a result, Mamata Banerjee has decided to run the election alone.

    The party gains its strength from robust support from the Muslim community and secular voters. Within the state, there exists a significant Muslim demographic, with many constituencies having a Muslim majority. There’s apprehension among the Muslim populace regarding the potential third term of Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi. A sizable portion of the Muslim population hails from neighboring Bangladesh and may have migrated illegally. BJP’s stance advocating for their exclusion from the country has instilled fear within this community, prompting them to rally strongly behind Mamata, who is vocally critical of the BJP despite having allied with them in the 1990s. The consolidation of Muslim votes is poised to grant AITC approximately 30 seats, maintaining the state government under their control, with all administrative machinery functioning in their favor. AITC also benefits from the support of certain criminal elements involved in politics, further bolstering their position. Instances of intimidation by these elements against BJP and other opposition party workers, as well as the general populace, contribute to a climate of fear that could translate into votes for AITC. 

    Negative factors are increasingly stacking up against the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC). There’s growing discontent surrounding Mamata Banerjee’s third term as Bengal’s Chief Minister, exacerbated by concerted efforts from the BJP. Anti-Muslim rhetoric is gaining traction, coupled with narratives depicting the plight of Hindus and the comparative progress of BJP-led states. Additionally, historical notions of Bengal’s former glory are being invoked. The Sandeshkhali incident, a widely publicized event implicating Trinamool leaders in serious crimes including rape, has tarnished the government’s image. Internally, AITC faces dissatisfaction over allegations of corruption, criminal activities, and the perceived nepotism in grooming Mamata’s nephew as her successor. The Hindu vote is consolidating, while the Muslim vote risks fragmentation due to disunity among AITC, INC, and CPI(M), further undermining AITC’s position.

    If the upcoming election deals a blow to AITC, the party’s future hangs in uncertainty. Considering the electoral patterns in the state, a setback could potentially entrench a prolonged period of struggle for the party in subsequent elections. BJP’s steady ascent, evidenced by their increase in seats from 2 to 18 within just five years, instills hope and garners support in the state, as indicated by opinion polls. Thus, AITC must carefully assess its standing and adapt accordingly. Despite receiving backing from the government in Bengal and maintaining relevance in national politics, AITC lacks clear ideologies and positions, which may alienate Muslim voters, leading to the party’s collapse. However, if Mamata Banerjee defies opinion polls and electoral analyses, staging a comeback as the savior of the opposition and Muslims, it could mark a resurgence for AITC, potentially expanding its influence nationally. The stakes are undeniably high for AITC in the upcoming crucial game of politics.

  • South Korea’s Parliament Election 2024: Campaigns Kick Off Ahead of April Election

    South Korea’s Parliament Election 2024: Campaigns Kick Off Ahead of April Election

    South Koreans will cast their ballots to choose a new National Assembly on April 10. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ruling party is attempting to reclaim a parliamentary majority as the official campaign for the next general election in South Korea began on Thursday. The upcoming parliamentary election is commonly perceived as a midterm assessment of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s leadership and a chance to counteract attempts by the opposition to impede his conservative agenda. It will also be a confidence test for the opposition Democratic Party, which has controlled the Assembly for the previous four years. In the capital city of Seoul, leaders of the nation’s main political parties hosted rival events to jubilant supporters, signaling the start of nearly two weeks of campaigning ahead of the vote on April 10. 

    Mr. Yoon secured the presidential election by a narrow margin in March 2022. Within three months, his People Power Party achieved victories in several major-city mayoral and provincial governor races. Nevertheless, Mr. Yoon’s presidency has faced significant obstacles, including his party’s constrained influence in the single-chamber Assembly and his declining approval ratings.

    The upcoming electoral contest carries immense weight for Mr. Yoon’s administration. A triumph for his party could inject vigor into his ambitious reform agenda, spanning healthcare, education, labor, national pension systems, and the pledge to dissolve the Ministry of Gender Equality. Additionally, it would validate his efforts to align South Korea more closely with the United States.

    Given South Korea’s single-term presidency, which confines Mr. Yoon’s tenure to 2027, securing a parliamentary majority is imperative for advancing his policy objectives. 

    The People Power Party, led by Han Dong-hoon, frames the election as a pivotal moment to reshape politics and enhance public welfare. Han has taken a combative stance, branding opposition leaders as “Criminals” and vowing to hold them accountable, a strategy he portrays as addressing the populace’s concerns.

    Central to the PPP’s appeal is its promise to purge what Mr. Yoon labels as corrupt “Anti-State” progressives from the heart of South Korean politics, a message resonating strongly with conservative voters.

    However, despite Mr. Yoon’s approval rating languishing around 34 percent and public dissatisfaction mounting over the lackluster economy, the opposition Democratic Party (DP) and a newly formed minor third party are leading in certain polls. Projections from the Yonhap News Agency indicate that opposition parties could secure over 200 seats in the 300-member Assembly, granting them the authority to impeach the president or override his veto power.

    Analysts view the upcoming election as an extension of the closely contested 2022 presidential race, where Mr. Yoon narrowly defeated the DP’s current leader, Lee Jae-myung, by a mere 0.73 percent margin. Lee is currently embroiled in multiple investigations, including allegations of bribery related to a company suspected of unlawfully transferring $8 million to North Korea. Despite denying all charges, Lee’s credibility remains under scrutiny. Additionally, there has been a surge in support for a party formed by former justice minister Cho Kuk, who faces a two-year prison sentence for falsifying credentials to facilitate his children’s admission into prestigious universities. He is currently appealing the verdict.

    Lee has urged voters to view the election as a referendum on Mr. Yoon’s governance over the past two years, criticizing the administration’s perceived incompetence, the soaring cost of living, and its hawkish stance toward North Korea, which he believes jeopardizes peace on the Korean Peninsula. The liberal opposition’s rallying cry is to “punish” the Yoon government for a range of issues, from escalating consumer prices to its rejection of a parliamentary bill aimed at initiating an independent investigation into allegations of corruption involving the first lady, Kim Keon Hee.

    Out of the 300 parliamentary seats in contention, 254 are determined through voting across various electoral districts nationwide. These contests primarily pit Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party against the opposition Democratic Party. The remaining 46 seats, not tied to specific districts, are allocated among smaller political factions based roughly on their proportional representation in a parallel nationwide poll.
    Despite the fact that South Korea faces many complicated issues, including a stagnant economy, skyrocketing housing costs, an aging population, growing income inequality, a gender gap that is especially noticeable among young people, and an increasing nuclear and missile threat from North Korea. That being said, almost all issues are seen via a partisan lens due to the nation’s widening political split. According to analysts, this election is more about playing on voters’ fears and animosities toward rival groups than it is about meaningful policy conversation.