Category: Elections 2024

The Downfall of the Indian Opposition Alliance

Narendra Modi and the BJP is in a cruise mode. With the impending Lok Sabha (House of Commons) elections on the horizon, a multitude of factors fortify their confidence in an enduring dominance. Modi’s magnetic leadership, forward-looking developmental initiatives, resonance with Hindu sentiment, and substantial financial backing collectively underpin what appears to be an unimpeded march toward electoral success.

Yet, at the heart of Modi’s seemingly seamless trajectory lies a conspicuous vacuum— the absence of a formidable opposition in the Lok Sabha. The official recognition of an opposition, necessitating at least 10% representation, is notably vacant in India’s current political landscape. This void amplifies the BJP’s influence, leaving the opposition space remarkably unfilled.

The primary opposition force, the venerable Congress party, grapples with substantial weaknesses that have diminished its efficacy. Despite these challenges, the Congress seeks to mount a credible challenge to the BJP by forging alliances with various state parties under the umbrella of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.

In its initial phases, the alliance displayed commendable performance. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, commonly known as I.N.D.I.A., has emerged as a united front announced by leaders representing 28 political parties, gearing up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The acronym I.N.D.I.A. was proposed during a pivotal meeting in Bengaluru, where leaders from all 28 participating parties unanimously embraced this symbolic title.

The inaugural meeting of opposition parties, a momentous gathering in Patna, Bihar, was chaired by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on June 23, 2023. Attended by 16 opposition parties, this assembly marked the introduction of the proposal for a new alliance. Following this milestone, the second meeting unfolded in Bengaluru, Karnataka, on July 17 and 18, 2023, under the chairmanship of UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi. During this session, the formal acceptance of the alliance’s formation took place, with an additional ten parties joining the coalition. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance was officially christened, and plans were set for the third meeting, scheduled to occur in Mumbai.

The third assembly took place in Mumbai between August 31, 2023, and September 1, 2023. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and chief ministers from five different states were among the notable attendees. After two days of intense discussion, the coalition reviewed key electoral issues related to the approaching general elections in great detail. During these talks, the details of the coordination committee were carefully outlined, and a complete three-point resolution was eventually adopted. This resolution is a significant step forward for the cooperative projects carried out by various political organizations uniting under the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. It unequivocally declares the alliance’s commitment to working together to address the many issues that the general elections in India in 2024 are expected to present.

The fourth assembly, convened in New Delhi on December 19, 2023, honed in on pivotal elements encompassing seat-sharing, joint rallies, and the selection of a prime ministerial face and/or convenor for the alliance. A noteworthy resolution was embraced, underscoring the imperative to maximize the use of VVPATs in the imminent elections. The emphasis lay on self-verification by voters and the separate storage of VVPAT slips. Setting deadlines for seat-sharing arrangements, the alliance declared nationwide protests against the suspensions of opposition MPs in the Indian Parliament on December 22. While plans for a grand joint rally in Patna on January 30, the death anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi, were alluded to, they remained unconfirmed.

However, the trajectory took an unexpected turn with the advent of the fifth meeting, conducted virtually, with some leaders unable to participate. Post-meeting, Mallikarjun Kharge, the president of the Indian National Congress, assumed the mantle of alliance chairperson. Seat-sharing discussions took center stage, with the Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, declining the role of national convenor.

As the electoral momentum initially surged, the later days unveiled the burgeoning vulnerabilities of the alliance. The dearth of robust leadership, the failure to establish a cohesive minimum program, and internal avarice within participating parties are now precipitating the coalition’s collapse. At the national level, the Indian National Congress stands as the sole representative within the alliance. However, the party grapples with internal weaknesses, marked by the absence of a prominent leader and the dominance of the Gandhi family, reluctant to relinquish control to outsiders. Regrettably, this familial stronghold has yet to recognize the urgency of the situation, failing to formulate effective policies to counter the formidable presence of Modi, despite being a national-level party. The intricate dynamics of this political landscape underscore the critical need for a resilient and strategic opposition to navigate the challenges presented by the current political climate.

While on paper, other collaborators such as the Aam Aadmi Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and former national parties like the All India Trinamool Congress and Nationalist Congress Party carry or carried a nationalist label, their influence remains largely confined to their regional strongholds. Exploiting the weakened state of the Congress, these parties seek to contest and expand their influence beyond their traditional territories, a move restricted by the Congress itself.

The complications intensify as regional parties with conflicting national interests undermine the broader image and objectives of the Congress. The alliance with the DMK, with its anti-Hindu stance and leaders making divisive statements, casts a negative shadow on the national-level standing of the Congress. Personal agendas, exemplified by JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar, further contribute to leaders withdrawing from the alliance. Modi’s strategic overtures, including awards for local parties and their leaders, have enticed collaboration with the BJP-led NDA alliance, leading parties like RLD and the National Conference to consider exiting and join NDA. A growing number of parties are preparing to contest the elections independently rather than aligning with the BJP.

Genuine democracy necessitates the presence of an opposition. India, proudly hailed as the world’s largest democracy with a populace exceeding 100 billion, fails to meet the criteria of a commendable democratic model in the eyes of Western think tanks. The absence of a robust opposition in India poses the risk of transforming the nation into a de facto single-party state, as the BJP champions the notion of Ramarajya, departing from the modern state concept embraced by Western counterparts.

The ideological architects behind the BJP seem to dismiss the strength of a diverse and vibrant opposition, opting instead to emphasize a narrative that weakens the West and underscores perceived conflicts with Islam. To safeguard the essence of Indian democracy, it is imperative for the opposition to awaken to the current scenario. However, the very parties constituting the opposition, driven by personal interests and avarice, appear poised to precipitate the collapse of the INDIA alliance. This potential disintegration could inadvertently pave the way for a third term for Narendra Modi, if not counteracted promptly. The intricate interplay among political forces in India emphasizes the vital significance of a robust opposition to safeguard the democratic values that characterize the nation’s democracy.

February 19, 2024
Imran Khan’s Setback: Coalition of Political Dynasties to Take Power in Pakistan

In the end, it’s all about power. Two arch-rivals, both hailing from prominent political dynasties and tainted by allegations of corruption, have forged an alliance to grasp the reins of authority. Following the dramatic aftermath of the recent general election in Pakistan, a coalition comprising the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has orchestrated a strategic accord, effectively sidelining the party led by the populist former prime minister, Imran Khan, despite its securing the highest number of votes.

The coalition, composed of former collaborators who worked together to dismantle Imran Khan’s PTI government, was revealed in a press conference held in Islamabad on Tuesday night. With a shared goal of addressing the nation’s numerous challenges, these opposing factions, supported by two smaller coalition partners, publicly announced their plan to form a united government. Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister and current president of PML-N, emerged as their nominee for the position of prime minister.

In response to this intricate political maneuver, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party vehemently denounced the coalition as “mandate thieves,” criticizing the collaborative endeavor to wrest control from the party that secured the highest number of votes. Despite PTI holding the largest vote percentage and the highest number of members, their inability to contest with a uniform election symbol, due to a ban, led to PML-N emerging as the largest party according to the election commission. With PPP and smaller parties lending their support, this coalition is poised to secure the majority of 133 seats out of 265. The military, a crucial determinant of power dynamics in the nation, has already given its endorsement to this formidable coalition.

As the final tally comes out by election commission, The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has successfully garnered support by endorsing independent candidates, securing a significant tally of 92 seats. In a tightly contested political arena, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) has strategically allied with independent candidates, consolidating a formidable bloc with 81 seats. The Pakistan People’s Party follows with 54 seats, while the Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), and the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) hold 17, 6, and 3 seats, respectively. Contributing to the intricate mosaic of political representation, smaller parties like the Balochistan National Party (Mengal), Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party, Awami National Party, Balochistan Awami Party, Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen, Pakistan Muslim League (Z), and Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party each hold one or two seats. This diverse distribution highlights the multiparty dynamics in play, laying the groundwork for a coalition government that necessitates strategic alliances for effective governance.

Initially anticipated as a straightforward victory for PML-N and its leader, the three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the election took an unexpected turn. PTI’s overwhelming support translated into the highest number of parliamentary seats, dealing a perceived blow to Nawaz Sharif, who had received tacit support from Pakistan’s influential military—an institution historically known for shaping election outcomes. PTI contends that widespread rigging tainted the electoral landscape, leading to an alleged injustice that deprived them of numerous parliamentary seats. From his prison confines on Tuesday, Khan cautioned against other political entities “venturing into the misadventure of forming a government with stolen votes.”

The subsequent press briefing illuminated the coalition’s selection of Shehbaz Sharif, the younger sibling of Nawaz Sharif and a former prime minister from 2022 to 2023, as their nominee for the role of prime minister. With no opposition within the coalition, he stands poised to assume the position uncontested. Asif Ali Zardari, co-chair of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), elucidated the reasoning behind their alignment with PML-N, stating, “Looking at everything, we have thought and decided to sit together. We have contested elections against each other, but despite that, it is not necessary forever. Opposition happens in elections. It was electioneering opposition, not ideological opposition.”

While Zardari is slated for the presidency nomination, the PPP affirmed their intention to abstain from holding ministries within the coalition government. These roles will be occupied by figures from PML-N and smaller coalition partners. Bilawal Bhutto, Zardari’s son and PPP co-chair, exhibited reluctance to forge a close association between the party and the coalition government, rooted in the considerable support for PTI among the masses and the perceived unpopularity of PML-N.

Shehbaz Sharif expressed gratitude to Zardari and Bilawal, acknowledging their party’s decision to vote for PML-N. He emphasized the coalition’s unified stance, declaring, “Today we have united to tell the nation that we all accept the split mandate.” Despite this, public skepticism and legitimacy questions persist, prompting Shehbaz Sharif to pledge “revolutionary steps” to address the economic crisis. However, the new government inherits power amid a cloud of public distrust, particularly from fervent supporters of Khan and PTI, who view PML-N and PPP as enablers of military interference in politics.

The coalition’s proclamation also underscores the sustained dominance of Pakistan’s two powerful political dynasties – the Bhuttos and the Sharifs. Maryam Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, assumes the role of chief minister of Punjab province, wielding significant political influence.

In anticipation of a potential opposition role, PTI’s leadership categorically rejected coalition offers from PML-N or PPP, bolstered by the incarceration of numerous senior PTI figures who allege politically motivated legal proceedings against them. Responding to the evolving political landscape, Zardari extended an olive branch to PTI for reconciliation, stating, “It should, and every other political force should, come and talk with us. Our economic and defense agenda should be common.”

Despite legal challenges raised by PTI, the impending government is destined to be a coalition of PML-N and PPP. Despite skepticism from international media, the military’s decisive role solidifies this alliance. The future trajectory of this government may be foreseeable, as any internal issues within this coalition are unlikely to lead to another election, given the fragile state of Pakistan’s economy. The notorious alliance of parties notorious for corruption and dynastic politics, appears poised to steer Pakistan, raising concerns about the country’s future stability.

February 15, 2024
In the Hands of Tomorrow: The Significance of Young Voters in Indonesia

Indonesia emerges as a pivotal testing ground, given the prevalent presence of millennials and Generation Z within its population. The growing influence of the internet-savvy generation within the voting booths plays a pivotal role in determining the election’s outcome.

The Indonesian General Elections Commission highlights a significant demographic shift, revealing that out of the anticipated 205 million voters, a notable 106 million fall below the age of 40, constituting 52% of the expected electorate. This shift underscores the captivating nature of Indonesia’s elections, emphasizing the escalating impact of the younger generations on shaping the political landscape.

With presidential elections occurring every five years, the 2024 polls on February 14th signify a noteworthy departure. This marks the first instance in a decade for the selection of a new leader due to the term constraints of the incumbent president, Joko Widodo. The 2019 election, with an 82% voter turnout, showcased the lowest abstention rate since the initiation of the presidential electoral process in 2004. Ongoing election campaigns vividly spotlight the candidates’ focused outreach to a specific audience.

Campaign strategies encompass a diverse range, from TikTok initiatives and the rebranding of established political figures to resonate with the preferences of the new generation, to mobile phone-centric campaigns and musical festivals. Banners line roads, pavements, and homes, transforming social media feeds into a bustling battleground of election fervor, adorned with campaign videos, fan art celebrating candidates, and a torrent of opinions.

Parties and candidates employ various strategies, such as distributing tickets to K-pop concerts and crafting social media feeds filled with cats and viral dancing, in a deliberate effort to capture attention. Even candidates with Islamic backing strategically tailor their efforts to address the concerns and inclinations of the youth demographic. This diverse array of campaign methodologies reflects a deliberate endeavor to connect with and appeal to various segments of the electorate, underscoring the evolving landscape of political outreach in Indonesia.

Against the backdrop of a significant youth demographic, a discernible pattern emerges as all three contenders for political office in Indonesia surpass the age of 50. Notably, the leading aspirant, 72-year-old Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, strategically selects a vice-presidential candidate under 40, specifically Gibran Rakabuming Raka, aged 36 and incidentally, the offspring of the incumbent president. Subianto’s campaign tactics entail a deliberate effort to reshape public perception, steering away from the image of a military general accused of instigating unrest in the nation. Presently, he cultivates a contrasting persona – that of a genial grandparent, engaging in TikTok dances and even crafting a personalized avatar tailored to resonate with the TikTok generation. This calculated rebranding strategy, reminiscent of Jokowi’s past initiatives, underscores the candidates’ recognition of the influential role of social media and the effectiveness of well-funded campaigns in shaping public sentiment.

Prabowo Subianto, a former special forces commander, carries a controversial legacy marred by allegations of past human rights abuses. These encompass claims of involvement in the abduction and enforced disappearance of student activists in 1997 and 1998. Despite being discharged from the army over these accusations, he has not faced criminal prosecution and vehemently denies any wrongdoing.

Accusations of rights abuses in Papua and East Timor further stain Prabowo’s record, with allegations including targeted killings of East Timorese civilians, such as the notorious 1983 Kraras massacre where hundreds lost their lives. Despite labeling these claims as “unproven allegations, innuendoes, and third-hand reports,” Prabowo, renowned for his fiery temper, undergoes a substantial rebranding effort to secure voter favor. His campaign depicts him as a grandfatherly figure, adopting a softer tone in speeches and even showcasing jovial dance performances on stage.

The primary concerns resonating among young Indonesians encompass the quality of life, corruption, institutional integrity, and environmental issues, particularly air pollution. Economic challenges, notably in social welfare and unemployment, add to the critical concerns, with 14% of Indonesians aged 15 to 24 grappling with joblessness in 2022. The youth, increasingly alarmed by climate change, particularly in Jakarta, the world’s most polluted city, assertively call for a government possessing both “good character” and a “certain level of competency” to address these pressing issues.

Despite these urgent concerns, the youth engagement in social media appears more motivated by entertainment than the substantive problems they face. Some experts argue that the election’s social media space is often utilized to divert attention from real issues, providing entertainment through platforms like TikTok that create a screen-blanketing effect. Social media takes on a pivotal role in connecting with young voters, considering that nearly 60% of the nation’s workforce operates in informal sectors. TikTok and Instagram have transformed into crucial battlegrounds for political campaigns, featuring tactics such as TikTok live streams and targeted engagement to resonate with the younger demographic.

As the election results approach on Wednesday, they not only hold the key to determining the nation’s new leader but also offer insights into the efficacy of social media campaigns in addressing the concerns of young voters. However, a growing concern arises, questioning whether political campaigns might excessively rely on superficial strategies, potentially trapping young voters in gimmicks rather than addressing substantive issues. The outcome not only shapes the nation’s future but also sets a global precedent on the role of screens in political campaigns and the behavior of the internet generation during elections.

February 13, 2024
People Choose Democracy in Pakistan; “Military Nominee” Fails to Impress
In the recent Pakistan general election, both the military and Nawaz Sharif fell short in their endeavors to secure victory. Instead, the electorate opted for the alternative led by the Islamic populist figure Imran Khan, who is presently incarcerated on serious charges, including an alleged non-Islamic manner of marrying his wife – a crime in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Despite Imran Khan’s imprisonment, his party had to navigate the electoral landscape with independent candidates, lacking a uniform election symbol. Surprisingly, the voters rejected candidates endorsed by the military, opting instead for those aligned with Imran Khan.

To summarize the distribution of seats for various parties in the Pakistan general election according to Al Jazeera’s report:
- Pakistan People’s Party (PPP): 54 Seats
- Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN): 76 Seats
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Affiliates: 97 Seats
- Others: 37 Seats (Including the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM -17)
The total number of seats mentioned in the report is 264.

According to reports from Pakistan, no single party secured a majority in the 265-seat assembly. Imran Khan’s affiliates emerged with a leading position, securing 97 seats, although they currently lack an official party structure. The party with the majority, officially backed by the military and representing former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), is set to shape the political landscape. The election outcome underscores a significant divergence from the expectations set by the military and Nawaz Sharif, highlighting the enduring support for Imran Khan and his political vision even in the face of challenges and legal controversies.

This election outcome not only stands as a testament to Imran Khan’s political standing but, perhaps more significantly, reflects the public’s aversion to military intervention in governance. The lingering uncertainty revolves around whether Imran Khan can establish a government, fostering the potential for a coalition government or, conversely, grappling with a military junta in the upcoming term. Despite enduring challenges such as living costs, security, energy, employment, and environmental concerns, the noteworthy aspect extends beyond the yet undetermined final seat tally for each party. The remarkable voter turnout signals a resolute commitment to exercising democratic rights and resisting military interference in the electoral process.

Despite allegations of vote-rigging and a suspicious internet blackout during the election, General Asim Munir, the current army chief, remains optimistic about the outcome. The military’s endeavors to manipulate the election were seemingly thwarted, partly due to the innovative use of social media by the PTI, including AI-generated campaign videos featuring Khan addressing voters from jail.

Although Nawaz Sharif secured the second position, he assertively claims his right to form the next government. To achieve this, he may seek support from the PPP, his historical rivals, and potentially court independents aligned with Khan. Both parties, emblematic of powerful political dynasties—the Sharif family and the Bhutto family—may engage in political negotiations in the days ahead before the largest party or coalition is decided and subsequently invited by the president to form the government.

Before the polling on February 8th, the prevailing perspective suggested that Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister and leader of the PML-N, was on the verge of assuming the role of the next prime minister. This perception gained traction as he appeared to have tacit support from Pakistan’s influential military establishment, a historical powerhouse recognized as the nation’s political arbiter, renowned for influencing elections and directly shaping governance through coups.

As the election approached, it became clear that the military leadership was resolute in preventing Imran Khan’s party from regaining power. Khan, who had initially secured victory in 2018 with military backing, experienced the dissolution of their alliance, ultimately leading to the orchestrated downfall facilitated by the generals.

In a spokesman role for Imran Khan, Ali Khan emphasized the crucial part that the military, frequently referred to as the “establishment,” plays in shaping the political environment. Ali Khan was shocked by the public’s overwhelming support and encouraged the “prime institution”, which is the military, to respect the people’s will and avoid getting directly involved in politics, even in the face of the military’s best efforts to retain control.

Despite these appeals, the imprint of the military’s influence remained unmistakable in the election outcomes. Nawaz Sharif’s apparent return from political exile, facilitated by a clandestine agreement with the army, echoed a history fraught with turbulence, marked by the conclusion of previous terms following challenges to military authority.

Within Sharif’s party, apprehensions surfaced concerning the election results and the anticipated formation of a feeble coalition government. Some speculated that this coalition might align with the military’s agenda, strategically sidestepping challenges to their political and business interests. There were murmurs of the potential ascension of Sharif’s younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif, to the role of prime minister should such a coalition come to fruition.

A senior PML-N leader intimated that the military harbored concerns about Nawaz Sharif’s pursuit of a parliamentary majority, apprehending the resurgence of a defiant leader. The military seemingly derived satisfaction from the election results, capitalizing on a society divided and polarized. A hung parliament, according to observers, conforms to the military’s proclivity for control through repression, ensuring their unopposed dominance in the political arena.

The Chief of Pakistan’s military is urging political leaders to demonstrate “maturity and unity” in the aftermath of an inconclusive recent election. The failure to produce a clear winner has prompted the military’s favored party to forge a coalition for governance. The military’s historical influence over Pakistan’s political landscape, with generals overseeing nearly half of the country’s post-1947 history since partition from India, is significant. General Syed Asim Munir stressed that elections are not a zero-sum competition but a mechanism to determine the people’s mandate. He called on political parties to respond with maturity and unity, emphasizing the importance of stability and a healing approach to transcend the prevailing politics of anarchy and polarization.

In the aftermath of an unforeseen election triumph, Imran Khan’s political party asserts its determination to lead the next government, despite opposition efforts to wrest power through a discreet coalition deal. However, challenges loom large as Khan remains incarcerated and effectively in exile, posing potential ramifications for the governance of any forthcoming administration. The political landscape, shaped by Imran Khan’s brand of Islamist populism, prompts reflections on Pakistan’s future, especially in the context of perceived shortcomings.

The election results suggest potential geopolitical repercussions as well. A fragile government backed by the military may resort to conflict with India to garner public support, a move that could exacerbate the country’s existing challenges. The unfolding political developments will likely have a profound impact on the entire region. In such a scenario, Sharif emerges as a favorable candidate for the military. The impending struggle to secure a government position may witness independent affiliates aligning with Nawaz Sharif’s coalition, enticed by financial and power incentives. Should these efforts prove unsuccessful, the imminent specter of military rule—a familiar occurrence in Pakistan—continues to loom on the horizon.
February 12, 2024
Indonesia Elections 2024: Jokowi Era to Continue through Prabowo

On February 14th, Indonesia, the third-largest democracy globally, will decide on their next president. Jokowi, the current president and a prominent populist leader, continues to shine on the political landscape. However, constitutional constraints prevent the incumbent President Joko Widodo, affectionately known as Jokowi, from seeking a third term. Nevertheless, Jokowi wields substantial influence in the election by offering unprecedented support to the leading candidate, Prabowo Subianto, challenging entrenched norms in Indonesian politics.

Although Mr. Widodo has not officially endorsed a specific candidate, his clear indications of support for Prabowo—whose running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is Jokowi’s eldest son—have sparked discussions. Jokowi, serving as Indonesia’s second two-term president since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 2004, stands in stark contrast to his predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Yudhoyono adhered to the societal tradition of official neutrality during polls, refraining from political involvement. In contrast, Jokowi is affiliated with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and actively participates in political events. Adding to the complexity, candidate Jokowi is endorsing Prabowo, who is not a member of PDI-P. Instead, Prabowo belongs to another party called the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) party.

Furthermore, the incumbent president’s frequent visits to the crucial battleground of Central Java in the weeks leading up to the election, described as work trips by his office but perceived by some analysts as open campaigning for Prabowo, the leader of the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) party, have raised eyebrows. Ganjar Ponomwo, presidential candidate from Jokowi’s Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), strongly advises Mr. Widodo to make a clear endorsement statement, emphasizing the vital need for state officials to remain impartial while navigating this complex political environment.

During his campaign, Mr. Prabowo has pledged to continue programs initiated by Mr. Widodo, reciprocating the incumbent’s involvement in populist initiatives like providing cash aid and a pay raise for civil servants. This participation is viewed as a mobilization of state apparatus to bolster support for his chosen successor. Prabowo currently leads the polls, with supporters seeing him as a robust leader capable of ensuring stability, committed to maintaining the continuity of Jokowi’s development plans.

If none of the contenders receives more than 50% of the vote on February 14, a runoff between the top two candidates is set for June 14. But according to experts, as of right now, most cases might not require a second round. As to the most recent survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), it appears that Prabowo is above the 50% threshold that is required to win in the first round. In the survey that took place between January 16 and 26, 50.7 percent of the 1,200 participants agreed with the former military person who is the favorite of Jokowi. Twenty-two percent of respondents said they supported former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. Mr. Ganjar Pranowo, a member of Jokowi’s party, supported by 19 percent of those surveyed . The percentage of people who were unsure was close to 7%.

The unfolding dynamics of this election occur within the context of a significant and diverse electorate. Ongoing debates revolve around the role of political dynasties and their implications for the strength of the country’s democracy. Civil society groups express unease, suggesting that Jokowi is seeking to retain influence even after leaving office. Concerns are raised about the potential ramifications of this alliance, impacting how the public perceives the presidency as an institution and the electoral process as a whole. If Prabowo is chosen in the upcoming election, it is likely to cast more doubts on Indonesian politics, solidifying the continuation of the Jokowi era and further spreading dynasty politics in the so-called third-largest democracy in the world.

February 5, 2024
The Power Play: A Closer Look at Pakistan General Election 2024

Pakistan finds itself in its most challenging period since its inception. Confronted with an array of formidable obstacles encompassing poverty, inflation, corruption, substantial public debt, escalating military expenditures, and a surging wave of extremism, the nation is navigating the complexities of organizing a general election for the national and state assemblies.

Set for February 8, 2024, the impending general elections in Pakistan stand as a critical juncture in shaping the composition of the 16th National Assembly. The spotlight is on two major political contenders vying for the leadership: the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), helmed by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the prevailing party in the previous elections, faces a unique predicament, with its leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan prohibited from contesting in the election. Moreover, a contentious Supreme Court ruling, stripping them of their electoral symbol in the lead-up to the elections, has compelled them to field candidates as Independents.

The oscillation between democratic and military rule in the so-called “Islamic Republic” State adds a touch of irony when discussing tenures. While the constitution stipulates a consistent 5-year term for the government, the actual duration often hinges on military decisions. The last General Elections in Pakistan took place in 2018. The National level election occurred in 272 constituencies, each selecting one member for the National Assembly. Simultaneously, at the provincial level, elections transpired in all four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA). Despite numerous changes in government leadership, the 2018 parliament successfully completed its mandated 5-year term.

The aftermath of the elections saw the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerge as the single largest party at the national level, securing both the popular vote and a majority of seats. At the provincial level, the PTI maintained its dominance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) retained its stronghold in Sindh. The newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) claimed the top spot in Balochistan. In Punjab, a closely contested scenario unfolded, with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) initially securing the largest number of directly elected seats. However, with the support of Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and the inclusion of independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter ultimately became the largest party, successfully forming the government. The intricacies of Pakistan’s political landscape, shaped by these elections, highlight the intricate dance between democratic processes and military influences.

The landscape of 2024 diverges significantly from that of 2018. Imran Khan, the once-popular leader who secured victory in the 2018 election, was compelled to step down from the head of the government following a no-confidence vote in 2022. His political fortunes took a further hit with a 10-year ban, preventing his participation in the upcoming general election. The party he led, PTI, has faced neglect in the election arena, with its symbol removed and often obscured in television broadcasts.

Shehbaz Sharif assumed the role of the new prime minister after the successful no-confidence vote. Subsequently, in 2023, as the parliament’s five-year tenure concluded, Anwar ul Haq Kakar took charge as the Caretaker Prime Minister. After protracted negotiations and disputes over the election date, Pakistan finally settled on a definitive schedule in February.

As the 129 million citizens prepare to select their prime minister, the political scenario is still completely unpredictable. The potential for low voter turnout and concerns over terrorist activities cast a shadow on the election. With Imran Khan absent from the arena, and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) not participating, discussions about the last election’s winner are set aside. In the previous election, PTI, with its populist ideology under Imran Khan’s charismatic leadership, military support, and a stance against corruption, secured 31.82% of the votes. This translated into 149 seats out of 342 after the election, surpassing the majority threshold of 171 with the assistance of smaller parties.

The main candidates in the current election contest are the Pakistan People’s Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Another prominent candidate in this election is Fazal ur Rahman, who is affiliated with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (Fazl).

The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML(N), positioned as a center-right and conservative political entity in Pakistan, currently holds the status of the third-largest party in the Senate. Established in 1993, the party emerged as a consolidation of influential conservative figures after the dissolution of the Islamic Democratic Alliance, with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at its helm. While the party’s foundational principles lean towards conservatism, advocating for free markets, deregulation, lower taxes, and private ownership, recent years have witnessed a shift towards a more liberal stance on social and cultural matters. However, members have faced allegations of employing Islamist populist rhetoric.

The historic 2018 general election in Pakistan saw a close race between the PML-N and PTI. The PML-N won 165 seats in the Punjab legislature and 64 seats in the National legislature of Pakistan, their influence was less pronounced in the assemblies of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Baluchistan. After the election, his son, Hamza Shahbaz, became the Leader of the Opposition in Punjab (Pakistan), while Shehbaz Sharif became the Opposition Leader in the National Assembly.

PML-N played a pivotal role in the opposition alliance, Pakistan Democratic Movement, which successfully orchestrated a No-confidence motion against Imran Khan, leading to his removal from office on April 10, 2022. Subsequently, Shehbaz Sharif ascended to the position of Prime Minister of Pakistan. As the upcoming elections approach, PML-N, led by Nawaz Sharif, anticipates a triumph in the absence of PTI. Pre-election opinion polls conducted by reputable Pakistani surveyors, including Gallup Pakistan and the Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR), indicate that PMLN has regained ground against its rival, PTI, particularly since June 2023. The return of Nawaz Sharif from exile and the Supreme Court’s decision disallowing the bat symbol associated with former national cricket team skipper Imran Khan have been influential factors in this resurgence.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) stands as a center-left, social-democratic political force in Pakistan, currently holding the position of the second-largest party in the Senate. Established in 1967, the party emerged in response to the military rule of President Muhammad Ayub Khan, uniting prominent left-wing politicians under the leadership of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. While the PPP’s initial platform was rooted in socialism, its objectives persistently include the transformation of Pakistan into a social-democratic state, the promotion of egalitarian values, the establishment of social justice, and the maintenance of a robust military. Among the three largest political parties in Pakistan, alongside the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the PPP has played a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape. The advent of PTI in Pakistan’s political arena significantly impacted the PPP, but they aspire to gain ground in some provinces and witness a substantial boost in their vote share.

On the other hand, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (Fazl) (JUI-F) represents a Deobandi Sunni political entity in Pakistan, often hailed as “the biggest religious-political party” in the country. Concentrated predominantly in southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Baluchistan, areas primarily inhabited by Pashtuns, JUI-F may not clinch a victory single-handedly in the upcoming election. However, experts posit that the party holds the potential to influence the ruling dynamics, with some believing that the chance of PML-N securing a single-party majority is relatively low.

Regardless of the election outcome, the military’s influence will loom large over Pakistan’s future, presenting a myriad of challenges in the years to come. Hopes for a government capable of controlling the military and fostering economic prosperity seem bleak. However, even maintaining the current situation could be considered a positive scenario for Pakistan.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once prominent funders of Pakistan as an Islamic nation, have curtailed their financial support, redirecting their focus towards their own growth. Meanwhile, China’s mounting debt and increasing control over the country, coupled with the waning interest of the USA and the West in the region, along with Iran’s aggression and India’s aspirations for superpower status, all contribute to the turbulent times ahead for Pakistan.

In an effort to present themselves favorably on the global stage, Pakistan must project an image of a democratic nation governed by rule of law. This election assumes paramount importance in shaping the country’s future, serving as a crucial factor in navigating the challenging geopolitical landscape.

February 3, 2024
How will the Huge Amount for the Election Affect Indonesia?

The most important aspect of democracy is elections. A strong democratic nation is created by transparent democratic elections. Fair elections are thus a basic obligation of every democratic nation. However, elections are no longer an easy procedure in modern times. In countries like Indonesia, which has 200 million voters, elections are costly and often detrimental to a country’s booming economy.

The Indonesian Government earmarked Rp 25 trillion (approximately USD 1.7 billion) for election preparations in the fiscal period of 2022–2023. More than half of this budget was allocated to the General Elections Commission, while the majority of the remaining funds were directed to the General Election Supervisory Agency. Hasyim Asyari, Chairman of the General Election Commission (KPU), highlighted the substantial cost involved in printing legislative ballots, amounting to over Rp 800 billion. With additional funding anticipated for the upcoming fiscal year. Among the realized expenditures, Rp 20 trillion has been deployed for election logistics and preparatory tasks managed by the General Election Commission (KPU) and the Election Oversight Body (Bawaslu). Additionally, an allocation of Rp 3.4 trillion has been designated for election security, dissemination efforts, and publications, involving various ministries and state agencies.

Globally, democracies are grappling with concerns over the escalating costs of elections. Efforts are being made worldwide to alleviate the economic burden associated with these processes. For instance, Malaysia has initiated movements like mandatory tenure completion to address these concerns. Despite the global discourse on cost reduction, Indonesia faces the challenge of balancing the financial demands of a crucial election with the imperative of upholding democratic principles.

Though Important Indonesian officials have confidence in the spending. The Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs’ Secretary, Susiwijono Moegiarso, is expecting the cost can be balanced by the country’s economic growth in the duration. He expressed hope that Indonesia’s economic growth would be positively impacted by the general elections in 2024. He cited the strong economic growth of 2023 and predicted an even stronger performance in 2024, attributing it to the approaching elections on February 14, 2024, when speaking at the Investor Trust Economic Outlook 2024 event.

Moegiarso pointed out that Indonesia had sustained growth of over five percent for eight consecutive quarters until the third quarter of 2023. Emphasizing the historical trend, he explained that election periods traditionally stimulate domestic economic activity through increased government spending and consumption, particularly by non-profit institutions serving households. The activities during the election period are expected to contribute to a rise in the real gross domestic product (GDP) and expedite money circulation.

In addition to the election-driven optimism, Moegiarso outlined the government’s development agendas for 2024, supported by state budget (APBD) policy. The government has also devised fiscal policies to accelerate national development targets and priorities. The ongoing economic transformation agenda includes down streaming natural resources, mining, and food products.

Furthermore, Moegiarso noted that national economic solidarity is bolstered by positive growth in consumption and investment in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). As Indonesia looks ahead, the combination of election-driven economic momentum and strategic policies positions the country for continued economic strength.

It’s true that democracies lose money when holding elections, but this money will go toward boosting economic activity, which is beneficial for the economy. Furthermore, the policies that the democratically elected government is dedicated to implementing benefit the economy more broadly. Hence, in the long run, democratic elections are mandatory, election expenses are a reality, and policies by democratic governments lead to prosperity.

January 26, 2024
All Eyes on Sabah: Sabah to Test Out New Political Alliances

Speculation is rife about the prospect of a state election in Sabah this year, despite the ongoing five-year mandate set to conclude in December 2025. The ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition has witnessed growing discussions surrounding the potential for an early election. While the GRS-led state government’s term is until September 2025, political analysts posit that GRS may leverage its strengthened position and new alliances before the Opposition can effectively organize. GRS and its component parties have had sufficient time to settle, in contrast to Opposition parties like Sabah Umno and Parti Warisan, which are still finding their footing.

The alliances forged during the 2020 state elections have undergone substantial transformations, with GRS aiming to solidify novel partnerships. Recognizing an opportunity to capitalize on the perceived vulnerability of Warisan, GRS may position Sabah Umno as its primary contender in Muslim Bumiputera seats. The last Sabah state election, held on September 26, 2020, marked a departure from the tradition of aligning with the Malaysia general election date The Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition emerged victorious in this election, securing a simple majority of 38 seats. Within three days, Hajiji Noor from BERSATU–PN was sworn in as the Chief Minister. The GRS coalition, comprising Perikatan Nasional with 17 seats, Barisan Nasional with 14 seats, and PBS with 7 seats, became the largest electoral coalition in Sabah since September 2020.

Following the Malaysian general election in November 2022 and the formation of a government alliance between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional, GRS announced its inclusion in the alliance. Despite GRS members Bersatu, SAPP, and STAR initially aligning with Perikatan Nasional, they signed a cooperation agreement with other parties. MLAs and MPs from Bersatu Sabah announced their departure from the party to become direct members of GRS, aligning with the coalition at the federal level. On December 17, GRS officially expelled Bersatu from the coalition. STAR, another member party of both GRS and PN, announced its exit from PN on December 5. As of December 2022, SAPP is the only member party of both GRS and PN.

Despite these changes, the government’s status quo in Sabah remains unchanged. Although PH and WARISAN are allied with GRS at the federal level, they continue to oppose the GRS-led administration at the state level.

The Sabah political crisis of 2023, widely known in local media as Langkah Kinabalu or the Kinabalu Move, commenced in January, when the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS)-led state government of Sabah collapsed. The collapse occurred as the Barisan Nasional (BN), a key coalition party, withdrew its support. Bung Moktar Radin, the Leader of UMNO Sabah (a component party of BN) and the Kinabatangan Member of Parliament (MP), along with Lamag Assemblyman, attributed the withdrawal to a lack of confidence in Chief Minister Hajiji Noor’s leadership. UMNO Sabah expressed its intention to shift support from the GRS coalition to the WARISAN Plus coalition. On January 9, Malaysian leaders Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi travelled to Kota Kinabalu to engage with Sabah’s political leaders in an effort to address the crisis.

As of February 6, there have been no alterations in the status quo regarding the Sabah government. This was influenced by the public support extended to Hajiji by five UMNO MLAs, notwithstanding Bung’s decision. Additionally, a state cabinet reshuffle took place on January 11 as a response to the unfolding events. On May 25, the Sabah State Legislative Assembly ultimately sanctioned the Anti-Switching Parties Law, commonly referred to as the Anti-frogs habit.

While an early election could benefit GRS given its current strength, concerns about dissatisfaction and seat distribution within the coalition pose risks. Analysts caution that sabotages and significant losses could occur if internal tensions escalate. Despite the evolving political landscape, analysts believe that GRS could perform well if its rivals struggle to solidify alliances.

Elections have the potential to either fracture or fortify a coalition. According to reports, the Sabah government is exploring the latter scenario. There is an opportunity to call for elections to bolster the coalition, capitalize on the challenges faced by the opposition, and extend its tenure of rule.

January 22, 2024
What does Taiwan’s General Election mean for South East Asia?

Taiwan’s presidential election last week captured global attention as Lai Ching-te from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emerged victorious as the newly elected president, defeating rivals Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party. This landmark win represents the first time a political party in Taiwan has secured a third consecutive presidential term. Despite this achievement, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its legislative majority, leaving no single party with sufficient votes to govern independently.

Since the early 1990s, the political landscape in Taiwan has been predominantly shaped by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT). Led by front-runner Lai Ching-te, the DPP originated from the anti-authoritarian protest movement, but after eight years in power, it is increasingly perceived as an establishment party. The DPP advocates for safeguarding independence and peace by fostering closer ties with other countries, particularly emphasizing a strong relationship with the United States.

Despite Taiwan’s relatively small size and a population of around 24 million, its election has drawn global attention due to security concerns arising from China’s looming threat of annexation. With the DPP returning to power, the alliance between Taiwan and the United States is expected to strengthen, and escalating tensions between Taiwan and China.

The Taiwan issue has become a major obstacle in Sino-U.S. relations, impeding efforts to de-escalate tensions. As the post-Covid pandemic world order unfolds, China’s aspirations of global dominance are getting challenged and the chance of China taking assertive measures in Taiwan and the South China Sea becomes evident. Economic slowdown, population decline, and increased self reliance of countries make China more susceptible to aggressive actions in these regions.

Within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), all 10 member states maintain One China policies, demonstrating unity on this front. However, in the event of a Taiwan contingency, the situation swiftly transforms into a humanitarian challenge, with countries grappling to safely and promptly evacuate their citizens. The complexity of this scenario is exacerbated by variations in humanitarian and disaster relief capabilities among Southeast Asian states.

April 2023 statistics from Taiwan’s Ministry of Labor reveal a substantial presence of migrant workers, with approximately 256,000 Indonesians, 257,000 Vietnamese, and 154,000 Filipinos in Taiwan. In contingency scenarios, the welfare and safety of these Southeast Asian populations become paramount concerns for their respective home countries.

Beyond the significant number of Southeast Asian nationals in Taiwan, nations in the region face the delicate task of balancing potential U.S. requests for assistance against pressures from China to maintain neutrality. China’s extensive investments in Southeast Asian countries, such as the One Belt One Road project, have fostered growing favor toward China among media and the public in nations like Myanmar and Indonesia. Movements against nations perceived as unfavorable to China, as seen in concerns over the Thailand canal project, serve as a cautionary signal for Singapore and Malaysia, which exhibit a more pro-U.S. stance. Southeast Asian nations, particularly Malaysia and Singapore, play pivotal roles as hubs for U.S. and European businesses in Asia, intensifying their reliance on the U.S.

The increasing financial support from China to countries like Indonesia adds a layer of complexity, potentially causing a regional divide if challenges arise. While Southeast Asian countries have no direct impact from Taiwan’s electoral outcomes, they must carefully determine their responses to the evolving impact on U.S.-China relations and regional security.

January 15, 2024
Malaysia for Consistent Elected Government Tenures: An Examination

Democracy stands as a noteworthy human accomplishment, and nations embracing democratic principles are often commended as progressive nations. Nonetheless, the escalating expenses associated with democratic processes, particularly the growing financial burden of elections, pose a significant challenge for public funds in many democratic nations. While essential for the functioning of a democratic system, the financial burden is considered a responsibility of democratic governments. However, if a government is unable to be formed following an election or if the tenure is prematurely terminated, it results in a substantial loss of public funds.

To address this issue, numerous countries are actively considering legislative measures to alleviate the financial strain associated with elections. These efforts aim to maintain the democratic process while minimizing the economic impact on the nation. Malaysia, having experienced the turnover of three prime ministers during the challenging period of the COVID-19 era, is reportedly contemplating the introduction of a law. This proposed legislation would enable the sitting government to complete its full term in office, mitigating the risk of unwarranted political instability and safeguarding the Malaysian economy from further disruption.

In an effort to avert any unjustified political instability, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi declared his intention to put forth a law or policy that guarantees the government’s continuation for the duration of its mandate. Addressing the Opposition’s charges of bribery involving the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to sustain the present administration, Zahid highlighted the adverse impact of having three prime ministers during the 15th Parliamentary Session in Malaysia. This situation caused misery for the populace by upsetting the government and resulting in a lack of direction and bad management during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Zahid warned that it would be harmful to repeat such historical issues and asked the Opposition to reevaluate their strategy. He emphasized the necessity of a mental shift and the significance of political stability at trying times such as the pandemic. In order to avoid similar interruptions in the future, Zahid suggested that a government should hold office until the conclusion of its term after receiving approval from the Agong.

The proposed legislation raises doubts about its objectives; while addressing political instability and cost reduction is commendable, as a democratic measure, it may not be a straightforward law. Allowing a poorly performing government to extend its tenure and hindering the potential realignment of political alliances post-election can lead to undemocratic governance.

The 15th general election in Malaysia is reported to have cost taxpayers up to RM1.1 billion, making it the most expensive national polls to date. The substantial increase in costs, doubling the expenditure from the previous elections, was primarily driven by the inclusion of around five million new voters. The Elections Commission acknowledged this surge in costs, particularly with a record-high voter turnout. Looking ahead, there is no doubt that election costs will continue to rise, and a country cannot overlook such significant financial implications.

Enforcing a law to secure a government’s full term can offer economic stability by averting political upheaval, yet it raises concerns about potential compromises to democratic principles. Navigating the equilibrium between economic advantages and the increased threat to democratic principles, Malaysia’s proposed legislation presents a substantial challenge to the democratic framework.

January 15, 2024