Category: Opinion

Impact of Biden’s Xenophobia Comment on Asian Politics

The United States Presidential race is heating up. President Joe Biden, appearing aged and sluggish, intends to seek another term for the presidential role. The Democrat, known for his pro-migration stance, consistently supports and welcomes immigrants. Biden’s recent comment favoring the country’s migration policy, in comparison with Asia, is emerging as a controversial topic in the political sphere. At last week’s event to raise funds for his 2024 re-election campaign, Biden remarked that their welcoming stance towards immigrants was a contributing factor to their growth of the economy. He proceeded with the economic struggles of China, Japan, Russia, and India, attributing them to their xenophobic reluctance to accept immigrants. Biden underscored the strength immigrants bring to a nation, but with negative comments on rivals China and Russia, and interestingly towards Japan and India. Such a seemingly casual remark from a seasoned politician has the potential to impact foreign relationships badly.

Biden’s comments against Asian countries’ xenophobia, were only meant to target Trump’s policies, but they made news in the Asian political landscape. Despite Russia, China, and India being multi-ethnic countries historically welcoming foreigners, their immigration policies do not resemble those of the United States or Western countries today. These countries’ stringent immigration laws and high population numbers coupled with a low job market, make them unattractive destinations for migration. These countries have significant multi-ethnic cities, such as Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Moscow, but small cities and villages usually don’t have that multi ethnic color. Though these countries’ populations and religions are generally open to foreigners, their politicians often run campaigns against immigrants. The stringent regulations are directly linked with politics. The countries are notorious for campaigns against the US, and which is often referred to as Xenophobia. But the comments against these countries by Biden, used by politicians in these countries, are being used to further escalate anti-American sentiments. However, mentioning Japan in the comment, a staunch ally of the United States, adds an intriguing dimension to the discussion.

Japan is more notorious for xenophobia than other countries in Biden’s comment, and historically, this trait has been visible in Japanese society. The nation, which prides itself on its homogeneity, has long been hesitant about immigration. However, its falling birth rate and rapidly aging population point to an acute labor shortage in the coming decades. Many experts believe that Japan’s lagging economy is a result of its strict regulations on immigration. In the case of Japan, Biden’s comment is actually true. However, Making a negative comment on Japan alongside comments about enemy nations is a blow for Japan. Japan has been described as “Regrettable”, the top government spokesperson said on Tuesday. Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, Yoshimasa Hayashi informed at a scheduled regular news conference that representations had been lodged with the United States. These representations indicated that the comment was not based on the correct understanding of Japan’s migration policy and was regrettable. Japan’s ties with its security ally, the United States, remain solid. Nevertheless, this type of comment will definitely affect people’s mood.

Only a few weeks before, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Washington for a summit with Biden and unveiled plans for military cooperation and projects ranging from missiles to moon landings to strengthen ties with an eye toward countering China and Russia. At this time, mentioning Japan was an unnecessary move by Biden. At Least it doesn’t need to be criticized along with the enemy states. China and Russia already have strained connections with America. Regarding India, they were moved towards the direction of the U.S. during Trump. But, Biden’s comment has already made headlines in India, and it could worsen the relationship. This is certainly a blunder by Biden at a time when strong alliances with Japan and India are needed to counter the growing influence of China and Russia in the continent. While Trump was accused by Biden of damaging foreign relations, Biden’s actions may be causing even more harm to the United States’ foreign relationships.

May 8, 2024
Israel’s Mission to Remove Any Scope of Palestine

Everyone knows that the two-state solution is the most plausible resolution generated in the longstanding conflict between Israel and Arab countries. Israel, a Jewish nation, and Palestine, a Muslim nation, encompass Israel-captured territories, namely the West Bank and Gaza. However, these plans faced rejection due to disapproval from both Arab society and Israel. Israel desires to retain all the land it currently occupies, while Palestine seeks the removal of Jews from their land.

Long before the establishment of a Jewish state on the British-controlled eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, the notion of a State of Palestine for Muslims existed. The British Peel Commission report of 1937 initially proposed separate Jewish and Arab states within the territory. Subsequently, in 1947, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a partition plan for Palestine, though Arabs resisted partition. Since the 1982 Arab Summit, the leadership of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), a prominent organization of Palestine, has, in principle, accepted the idea of a two-state solution. Despite momentum from the Oslo Accord towards mutual recognition, it ultimately collapsed. Other organizations for Palestine like Hamas did not agree with the PLO.

Right-wing governments of Israel, including Netanyahu’s, proceeded to establish large settlements in the West Bank, an area designated for Palestine by the international community. Netanyahu employed a strategy of expansion into East Jerusalem and the West Bank to gain an advantage in elections, a plan reportedly continuing according to the latest reports. Nevertheless, most international countries recognize the West Bank and Gaza as part of Palestine. Many political experts argue that Israel’s mission to expand into these territories is undermining the prospects for Palestine in recent years, contravening international law, which prohibits the permanent settlement of territories occupied militarily.

Amidst the ongoing conflict between Hamas in Gaza, Israel is not slowing down but extending its construction efforts and building more Jewish settlements in the West Bank. This exacerbates the complexity of border division between Muslims and Jews. As more land falls into the hands of Jews, the Islamic character of the region is also diminishing. These actions, conducted without regard for international agreements, are perceived as part of Israel’s mission to control more Palestinian land, with Hamas attacks providing justification for such moves.

According to a report by The Guardian, Israel’s government has significantly increased the construction of settlements across East Jerusalem. Planning documents as part of Israel’s mission on the West bank, reveal that over 20 projects, totaling thousands of housing units, have been approved or advanced since the onset of the conflict in Gaza six months ago. Ministries and government offices, often in collaboration with right-wing nationalist groups known for attempting to displace Palestinians from their homes, are spearheading the largest and most contentious projects. Israeli planning authorities have sanctioned two new settlements since the conflict began, marking the first approvals in East Jerusalem in over a decade. Additionally, the expansion of a high-security settlement named Kidmat Zion, situated in the heart of the Palestinian neighborhood Ras al-Amud on the city’s eastern fringe, is pending public feedback. Israel’s mission on the Westbank detailed in the report.

Israel has initiated a plan for Gaza as well. There are influential business-politicians who recognize the strategic value of the seafront area. They have already devised a plan envisioning a future phase where Hamas no longer controls Gaza, ensuring security for Israeli citizens. Instead, other Palestinian entities would assume governance of the territory. Israel would retain the right to operate within Gaza, akin to the current arrangements in the occupied West Bank. This move underscores Israel’s mission to annex more areas in the West Bank and Gaza, thereby diminishing the scope for Palestine. International bodies that fail to broker a ceasefire in Gaza find themselves limited in their ability to intervene. Arab leaders who reject the two-state solution are facing repercussions for their stance. Ironically, the expectation held by former Arab leaders that Palestine would be established by driving out Jews and Israel from the country is being reversed. Israel is increasingly being established by driving out Arabs.

April 17, 2024
Role of the Philippines Domestic Politics in South China Sea Tensions

Steadfast foreign policies are instrumental in bolstering the strength and reputation of each country. The United States maintains a consistent foreign policy stance regardless of whether it is led by a Democratic or Republican administration. In many developed democratic nations, policies remain stable across different administrations. However, in some countries, changes in governments and issues in domestic politics lead to significant shifts in foreign policies. Countries with flawed democracies and highly corrupted politicians are often known for making rapid policy changes or shifts in views. They may shift foreign policies to quell the people’s discontent with the ruling government. These shifts may lean towards the United States, China, or India, but regardless, they have a substantial impact on the nation. While some outcomes may be positive, many occasions result in negative effects on the nation, and sometimes, the entire region is affected.

The Philippines serves as a notable example of these political trends. It is a country where political dynasties, celebrities, and prominent families often wield significant influence over the political sphere, which is rife with corruption. The Philippines is traditionally allied with the United States and in contention with China over the disputed South China Sea. The Philippines and the People’s Republic of China are at odds over the Scarborough Shoal, the Spratly Islands, and the Camago and Malampaya gas reserves. However, China’s economic growth in the 2000s also impacted Philippine politics, leading to a shift in policies favoring China. The former president R odrigo Roa Duterte, was accused of favoring China, deviating from the conventional strong alliance with the US. Allegations suggest that Duterte aided China in advancing its efforts in the South China Sea by forming an unofficial alliance with the country.

Actually, a hornet’s nest was created by the purported “Gentleman’s Agreement” between China and the Philippines regarding the South China Sea during the previous Duterte administration. Harry Roque, a former presidential spokesman, contended that the unofficial agreement was designed to maintain the status quo in turbulent areas, such as the Second Thomas Shoal. The agreement was referred to as a “Disguised Surrender” of the nation’s sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone by retired Associate Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court. Many important figures requested an inquiry over this agreement. It was deemed “Treasonous” by Senator Ana Theresia Hontiveros, who also requested an investigation. The covenant purports to require Manila to promise not to transfer building supplies to support its outpost in the low-lying Second Thomas Shoal, which is a corroding beached ship. Opponents claim that it gives Beijing more leverage.

It was clear that Duterte favored China by deviating from the conventional US-favored policy. Even though Duterte didn’t sever the US relationship, his closeness to China definitely affected the relationship with the US. The current president Bong bong Marcos, is shifting the policy back in favor of the US, which makes China more aggressive. Many believe that Marcos’s return to a policy favoring the United States is part of the growing tension between the current and previous pres idents; their disagreement became apparent to the public. The “Gentleman’s Agreement” was withdrawn, but the sudden changes show how short-sighted Philippine foreign policy has become. Indeed, domestic politics are affecting the Philippines. A political alliance with Beijing in the previous government was undoubtedly in the interest of politicians, even though it is evident that China wants to increase its territory and does not share the Philippines ambitions. Politics also plays a role in the current movement towards the US. We can predict that there is a chance that the future president will alter these policies.

Under the new president, it appears that the Philippines is heavily leaning on the United States; they have entered into numerous agreements with the United States, and Biden recently announced a commitment to protecting the Philippines along with Japan. It’s clear that there will be a warming of the relationship between the United States and the Philippines as the Chinese economy shows weakness, and there will be no switching. However, if the government fails to address the people’s issues, opposition may sometimes bring China back into the scenario. Nevertheless, it’s certain that Philippine politics contribute significantly to the country’s problems.

April 13, 2024
How Israel’s Gaza Attack Revealed New Global Order

There is no doubt that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world order is led and directed by the Mighty United States. However, after three decades of US supremacy, the last three years have seen considerable shifts in the United States’ supremacy in the global order. As the Gaza attack and Ukraine war continue without seeming a possible end, some points are clear: the UN is an ineffective waste of money, the United States can no longer participate in direct wars, Russia appears weak, China can only fight with words, and Muslim solidarity among nations for Palestine has waned. Yes, this is the new world order. Even the policymakers are confused about the new developments around the world. The Gaza conflict is actually shedding light on the shaken world order. And this new world order is curious with some important happenings that could never previously be expected. The United States is not vetoing the resolution against Israe l. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other important Muslim countries are no longer interested in Palestine. While the embassy is attacked in Syria, Iran Remains calm.

Every war reshapes history and presents significant challenges to international relations. Two days after the Hamas massacre in Israel that ignited the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the region would be reshaped to Israel’s advantage. Six months later, nobody believes they’ve lost yet. However, these events pose challenges to international relations. Interestingly, the United States is now taking a strong stance against Israel’s aggression, demanding a ceasefire and withdrawing from vetoing the UN Security Council resolution. While this stance doesn’t directly impact the relationship, it generates discontent among political figures and is also considered part of an internal issue in Israel. As a country deeply intertwined with the money and politics of the United States, experts suggest that the United States’ recent actions reflect discontent stemming from long-standing rule and corruption allegations against Netanyahu

And another important development is the freezing of the progress of the United States mission in the Middle East to unite Sunni Arab countries and Israel, which initially appeared successful. It was a significant achievement by Donald Trump, leading to successful agreements between many Arab countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco with Israel. This movement is undoubtedly part of the evolving agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, resulting in the relationship between Jews and Sunni Islamic countries reaching an all-time high. However, Israel’s Gaza attack has unsettled the populace in the region, causing countries to distance themselves from further progress in building relationships with Israel. Additionally, there is discontent among Turkey and Egypt who have already established relationships with Israel. Iran, the sponsor of Hamas, is not only gaining support from Shia countries like Lebanon and Syria but also from the global Muslim population, thus strengthening its position in international politics. Despite making strong statements, Iran has not taken any action to de-escalate tensions in Gaza, actions they are capable of. Furthermore, Pakistan, another country seeking domination in Islamic countries and the largest ally of the United States, is becoming increasingly irrelevant in international politics.

Israel’s Gaza attack has also been seized upon as a golden opportunity for Russia, which is facing humiliation in Ukraine. The Ukraine war has receded from the main headlines, allowing Russia to present double standards to Western countries. However, many doubt the capabilities of Russia. Even their closest ally, China, the globally overrated power, appears to be keeping its distance from the latest developments. Additionally, countries like Brazil, South Africa, and Spain have made headlines by advocating peace in various forums. India, previously distant from Israel and the US, has conventionally supported Palestine and a two-state solution. However, it is now emerging as one of the biggest supporters of Israel, with the friendship between Modi and Netanyahu strengthening this stance.

No doubt, the United States remains the sole superpower in the world. Russia, China, or any other nation cannot match the effectiveness of the Soviet Union in foreign policies and military strategy development. However, recent incidents mark a weakness in the United States’ political strategy. US diplomacy is experiencing continuous setbacks, particularly during the Biden era. They struggle to direct Israel, influence Europe, confront adversaries, and execute effective campaigns. Biden has failed to achieve his aims in renovating political relationships damaged during the Trump era. The new global order exposes the weaknesses of the United States. Additionally, the Middle East is transitioning from an era defined by religion to one driven by business.

April 12, 2024
Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

Narendra Modi is on a mission to sweep the upcoming Indian general election. He continuously states in rallies that he will secure 400+ seats out of the total 545 seats. Perhaps it is merely an election strategy to ensure the common perception that Modi will continue for a third term, though it’s clear that if Modi wants a third term single-handedly, he has to expand his influence to the southern states, which are still opting for the rival Indian National Congress and its allies.

When opinion polls and election scientists predict the loss of current seats and anticipate tough fights from states where Modi’s BJP has secured the majority of their seats, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra, they are focusing on other states that traditionally haven’t contributed to the BJP. South India is now in the radar of the BJP. The people of southern states, with different ethnicities and languages compared to the rest of India, always follow different trends. But Modi has proven his winning mindset before and is not backing down. By increasing rallies and setting up thorough election campaigns, Modi is getting ready to reap more seats from the south.

South India, the region comprising the five states and one union territory, which are Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Puducherry, contributes almost 130 seats out of 545 seats. Every state has different political scenarios, different leaders, and different alliances. The stronghold of the Indian National Congress has the government in Karnataka and Telangana. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the ruling parties are allied with the Indian National Congress. In Andhra Pradesh, a Congress faction, YSR Congress, is in administration, and the only government in alliance with the BJP is in Puducherry.

Tamil Nadu, known as the paradise of regional parties, has a myriad of parties advocating Tamil nationalism, representing various castes, and fans associations of movie stars. It holds the most number of seats in South India, with 39 seats in the upcoming general election being contested by three alliances. The INDI alliance, comprising the Indian National Congress, Tamil Nationalist Party DMK, Communist parties, and Dalit Party VCK, is at the forefront. The All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance includes some Islamist parties, and the NDA, the BJP-led front, comprises the Vanniyar Caste Party Pattali Makkal Katchi and factions of All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The state gave one or two seats to the BJP in the last elections, and opinion polls suggest they may gain some seats this time, improving upon their previous general election’s record of zero seats. Expectations are for 3-4 seats to be won here, while opinion polls favor the INDI alliance. However, Modi is confident and hardworking, conducting numerous rallies and expecting to secure more seats from Tamil Nadu.

Karnataka, which has 28 seats, is the only BJP stronghold in South India. Previously, it formed governments, and BJP surprisingly secured 26 seats in the last Indian general election. However, the state assembly election followed by the general election was swept by the Indian National Congress. BJP formed an alliance with the regional party JDS to repeat the victory of the last time and sweep all seats. However, this time, the Congress is putting up a tight fight under a strong state-level leader. It is expected that the BJP-led NDA alliance can secure 15-18 seats out of the 28 available. In a state known for Hindu-Muslim tensions, BJP will definitely use Hindu sentiments to secure more seats.

In Andhra Pradesh, which contributes 25 seats, there are multi-front fights. The ruling YSR Congress, a faction of Congress, is on one side, while the Indian National Congress is on the other. Additionally, the BJP leads an alliance with the strong regional party TDP and the party of movie star Pawan Kalyan. Like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh has many parties associated with movie stars and caste-based parties. However, as the general election coincides with the state assembly election, the sentiment against the ruling state government largely determines the election results. In the last general election, the YSR Congress party led with 22 seats out of 25, with the rest going to the TDP. But this time, the Indian National Congress and BJP are also contenders. With the alliance of TDP and the Modi factor, BJP is expecting to secure 3-4 seats from Andhra Pradesh.

Kerala is the state that has never given a Member of Parliament to the BJP. The BJP doesn’t have any significant role in the political landscape of the state, which has 20 seats and is highly divided between the CPIM-led LDF alliance and the INC-led UDF alliance. Even though the BJP has some strongholds in the state, they didn’t secure any seats in the last general election for parliament. Out of the 20 seats, 19 were won by UDF and 1 by LDF, but the subsequent state assembly election was won by LDF. However, with the state facing severe economic struggles and the rise of Islamism, there is hope for the BJP. Narendra Modi has conducted several rallies, and they are expecting to secure more than 4 seats from the state in the changed political landscape.

Telangana contributes 17 seats to the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). In the upcoming general election, there is expected to be a multi-front fight for these 17 seats. The INC, BJP, and the strong local party BRS, along with many communist and religious parties, are all participating. In the last general election in 2019, BRS secured the highest number of seats with 9, followed by BJP with 4, and then Congress with 3. However, the INC made a comeback following the state assembly election. Currently, the INC holds the advantage in opinion polls, while the BJP is gaining momentum and hopes to capitalize on the collapse of the BRS Party. BJP expects to secure more than 4 seats, and there is a possibility for BJP to capitalize Hindu-Muslim religious tensions.

Puducherry, the Union Territory, an old French territory, has one seat in the House of Commons, which was won by the INC last time. Then, the BJP-led alliance won the state assembly election, and they are expecting to win the seat by tightening the contest.

It’s clear that the Indian National Congress has the upper hand in South India. However, the BJP will pose a tough challenge, and the growth of the BJP in the region is evident. They are gradually expanding into more regions and states, with Modi giving importance to the region. Increasing their tally from the current 29 out of 130 seats to more will help them secure additional seats and decrease the number of seats for their prime rival, the INC, as they too expect to gain more seats from the region. Predictions suggest 35 to 40 seats for the BJP in the upcoming general election, and sometimes it may even be more. Modi has proven before that he can work wonders in general elections.

April 10, 2024
At What Cost? Saudi Arabia’s World Cup Journey Puts Human Rights on the Line

FIFA, the governing body of football, stands on the verge of selecting Saudi Arabia as the host nation for the 2034 World Cup. Hosting the FIFA World Cup grants unparalleled visibility and prestige to the chosen country, making it a highly coveted achievement for Saudi Arabia to showcase itself to the world stage. However, FIFA’s decision to potentially award hosting rights to Saudi Arabia has sparked controversy, given the organization’s frequent accusations of corruption and Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record. The previous selection of Qatar as a host, despite its lack of significant football history and its issues with labor and human rights, also raised skepticism before. And before Qatar it was Russia. Now, with Saudi Arabia aspiring to host the 2034 tournament. This has prompted concern among human rights advocates, who fear that Saudi Arabia may be attempting to use the World Cup as a means of diverting attention from its human rights violations through a practice known as “Sportswashing”, portraying a positive image to the world while ignoring underlying issues.

The Guardian, the center-left British media outlet, has already published a series featuring how migrant workers are being used or scammed in the name of the World Cup in Saudi Arabia. Qatar serves as a precedent example; the stadiums built without basic security or regard for the value of people’s lives host the World Cup. Many lives have been lost for the World Cup, and many people have been abused by the peculiar visa scheme Qatar offers for workers. The Saudi Arabian World Cup is expected to be a second version of Qatar.

Saudi Arabia’s human rights record is dismal. Despite limited efforts to fortify its human rights framework, the nation receives a dismal score of eight out of 100 in the widely recognized Freedom in the World report, issued by Freedom House, which evaluates political rights and civil freedoms. The law mandates that wives must submit to their husbands in a manner considered “Reasonable”, and any disrespect toward the government can result in severe punishments. Moreover, human rights organizations are prohibited from operating in Saudi Arabia.

There is widespread skepticism regarding FIFA’s ability to fulfill its human rights obligations, even if they are strictly limited to World Cup-related projects. Nonetheless, there is still an opportunity for potential action. As part of its bid, Saudi Arabia for the 2034 World Cup must provide an impartial evaluation of human rights conditions in the nation to FIFA by this summer. “Sustainability and Human Rights” constitute one of the six selection criteria, and FIFA is obligated to assess human rights risks as part of the selection process.

FIFA has committed to ensuring the protection of worker’s rights and their safety as part of its efforts to uphold human rights. Saudi Arabia stands out for having the poorest labor conditions among Gulf nations. There is Similar conditions in Qatar too. However, Saudi Arabia presents its own unique challenges. Recent advancements in labor rights are highlighted by Saudi authorities, including the abolition of the kafala system, which previously tied migrant workers to their employers, and the implementation of regulations governing recruitment. Workers are now permitted to join legitimate independent trade unions, allowing them to file complaints without fear of prosecution. Additionally, the absconding law has been eliminated, ensuring that it is no longer considered a crime for workers to leave their employment.

Perhaps these fears are only held by certain left-wing groups, human rights organizations, and newspapers. Maybe these reports come from individuals who seek to tarnish Saudi Arabia’s reputation. Perhaps they come from people in Bangladesh and Pakistan who are willing to sacrifice their lives to obtain significant financial gain that can support their large families. However, we all know that FIFA is playing a double game by selecting these hosts. While they promote progressive values, they prioritize countries’ financial interests over these values. Or we can believe that FIFA is on a mission to slightly improve human rights in the countries where it completely lacks.

April 5, 2024
Rise of Political Islam in Malaysia and Indonesia: An Analysis

Malaysia and Indonesia, both predominantly Muslim nations with secular governance, have charted unique paths in history, differing from many other Islamic countries. Their divergence traces back to colonial eras, with British and Dutch rule shaping them differently from Ottoman-controlled territories. Even after achieving independence, while they instituted specific Islamic frameworks – Indonesia even embracing Islamic Sharia in certain areas – they generally maintained a more liberal outlook compared to Arab nations. However, in recent years, there has been a noticeable rise in the influence of Islamic parties in both countries, signaling a shift from the waning of anti-colonial nationalist movements. This trend emerged prominently in Indonesia from the early 2000s and has more recently gained traction in Malaysia. Although these parties may not hold unilateral authority, they wield significant sway over the public.

The intertwining of religion and politics is becoming more pronounced in the region. Islamist politics is gaining significant traction in Malaysia, with PAS’s influence transcending its traditional support base. Especially in rural Malay areas, PAS has emerged as the favored choice for many Muslims. Strengthening its hold in the northern states and the east coast, PAS is also gaining ground in other parts of Peninsular Malaysia. This shift towards Islamist parties like PAS can be attributed, in part, to internal turmoil within UMNO, Malaysia’s oldest political party, including scandals such as the 1MDB controversy involving former Prime Minister Najib Razak. For the Malay Bumiputera community, race and religion stand as core values that have long guided PAS since its inception. There is a growing sense of concern that Malay voters are increasingly leaning towards conservatism, embracing PAS’s agenda of Islamization and advocacy for Shariah laws.

After Malaysia’s 2022 General Election, PAS emerged as arguably the most potent individual party at the federal level. It now commands 43 out of 222 seats in parliament, surpassing the influence of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), the multiracial-centric Democratic Action Party (DAP), and even UMNO. Historically, UMNO, a Malay nationalist party, held sway over Malaysian politics from 1957 to 2018. On the federal stage, PAS spearheads the opposition coalition PN alongside the Malay nationalist party Bersatu. In the six state elections of 2023, PAS achieved significant victories, securing 105 out of 127 contested seats. It orchestrated a clean sweep of all 32 state seats in Terengganu under the PN banner, clinching 27, while the remaining five went to Bersatu. Presently, PAS governs four states—Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah, and Perlis – in the north, known as the Malay heartland.

Fueled by its recent political successes, the conservative party is setting its sights on forming the government in the upcoming General Election. Divisive Malaysian politics have exacerbated societal fractures. In the Malaysian context, the majority comprises the Malay Bumiputera, who are predominantly Muslim. This reality underscores PAS’s unwavering stance that leaders in Malaysian politics must be Malay-Muslims, as they represent the dominant demographic in the country. PAS remains resolute in this position.

In Indonesia, a nation more diverse than Malaysia, the mission of Islamic parties focuses heavily on fostering Islamic identity within the state. The National Awakening Party and the Progressive National Mandate Party are prominent Islamic parties in Indonesia, advocating for political Islam. And there are many small parties, They have a limited regional presence, particularly in Aceh, where Sharia law is implemented. These parties have achieved varying levels of success in terms of seats won and membership.

The prominent party, The National Awakening Party (PKB) was established in 1999 by the traditionalist Muslim community in Indonesia, with significant overlap with the membership of Nahdlatul Ulama. Described as a nationalist Muslim party, PKB promotes inclusive and nationalist principles while upholding the Pancasila doctrine. In the legislative assembly, the party holds 68 out of 580 seats, with a vote percentage of 10%.

Indonesia boasts larger Islamic territories and population, dissenting voices foresee an impending demand for Sharia law in additional regions. They perceive the recent electoral defeat of figures like Anies and Muhaimin Isakander in the presidential election as part of the ongoing Jokowi wave. These proponents argue that the current 10% representation could burgeon in the future, leading to the proliferation of Islamic politics across more regions.

In the region, Muslims are devout yet also seek prosperity. Political Islam has often relied on instilling fear, anxiety, and the perception of Islam being threatened. While fear may resonate with some of the younger generation, hope tends to be more appealing. Malaysia and Indonesia, with their unique identities among Islamic nations, have pursued more modern and secular political approaches. In contrast, Islamic Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are gradually relaxing strict Islamic rules. Meanwhile, Islamic factions are gaining influence in the democracies of Malaysia and Indonesia. It’s clear that if these factions were to govern independently, it would likely result in a significant loss or alteration of the national identity of these states.

March 30, 2024
Will Chinese Economy Slowdown Affect the “Science War” With the United States?

The perpetual struggle for supremacy among nations often culminates in tragic and devastating conflicts. However, in the realm of science, this rivalry proves beneficial, as the nation at the forefront of innovation typically emerges as a global leader. This dynamic prompts governments to allocate substantial resources for research and development.

Throughout history, the competitive landscape of science has propelled progress.. Nazi Germany’s advancements in aircraft research, for instance, spurred the United States to enhance its own aircraft technologies. Similarly, the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union fueled significant progress in space science, consequently advancing capabilities in various fields such as agriculture and medicine.

After the dissolution of the USSR, a period of stagnation gripped innovation, lacking the competitive impetus that had driven progress. However, the rise of China as a formidable force in the early 21st century, particularly excelling in technology, artificial intelligence, and space exploration bring back good days for science. China’s ambitious pursuits compelled the United States to readjust its research focus, breaking free from years of relative stagnation.

However, there are indications that the Chinese economy might be faltering. This situation makes one wonder what impact it might have on the pace of technological development and what shape future global innovation will take.

While Chinese leaders address the economic challenges, they are not putting their feet back in embracing the technology. China’s policy decisions are channeled through the Chinese National Assembly, colloquially referred to as the “Two Sessions.” Last week’s deliberations during the “Two Sessions” are expected to yield additional policies aimed at bolstering science and technology, forming a pivotal component of a broader strategy to enhance economic growth. As the legislative and top political advisory bodies convene, a fervent discussion ensues concerning China’s technological development and the potential threat posed by the “Middle-technology Trap.”

The “Middle-technology Trap” involves the peril of developing nations initially benefiting from the transfer of industrial capabilities but encountering prolonged stagnation in catching up with technologically advanced nations, sparking a spirited debate. China’s pursuit of high-quality economic development is intricately linked with technological advancements. While some argue that the substantial gap between China’s technological capabilities and the West fuels the discourse, opposing views question the accuracy of the middle-technology trap concept in portraying China’s current status. This skepticism arises from instances where China has surpassed the United States in certain technological aspects.

The ongoing discussions reflect China’s nuanced approach to navigating the challenges and opportunities in its technological journey. China aims for a delicate balance between self-reliance and global collaboration to propel its development, showcasing a strategic and multifaceted perspective on the evolving landscape of technology and its role in the nation’s progress.

China’s standout technological achievement is in the realm of electric vehicles (EV). Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) in the EV value chain has experienced significant growth, and Chinese companies’ expects dominance in high-tech industries expanding overseas.

The surge in Chinese EV investments abroad can be attributed to a combination of “Pull” factors abroad and “Push” factors within the Chinese market. International car manufacturers in Europe and the US prefer proximity between battery makers and their plants to mitigate supply chain disruptions and reduce transportation costs. Chinese battery manufacturers, possessing the necessary technology and capital, are well-positioned to meet this demand. Simultaneously, the deceleration and increasing saturation of China’s domestic EV market serve as additional incentives for Chinese EV companies to explore overseas opportunities. With a concurrent rise in global EV adoption, leading Chinese EV companies, spanning raw material refiners, battery material producers, battery manufacturers, and EV producers, are actively targeting international markets.

Notably, BYD stands out as the world’s largest EV car producer, continually advancing technologies, vehicles, and batteries within China’s robust research centers. The reliance on subsidies and support from the Chinese government is evident, providing a crucial boost for Chinese companies in research and development. When the Chinese economy undergoes a slowdown, there is a growing need for more market-driven funding, potentially impacting business operations.

China has emerged as a global leader in the development and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI). Whether in e-commerce, ride-hailing services, or autonomous vehicles, Chinese companies operating in these sectors are formidable global competitors, significantly contributing to China’s overall progress. Chinese policymakers have implemented a comprehensive set of regulations focused on data and consumer protection. These regulations aim to ensure the responsible use of technologies and prevent market abuses by dominant players. China’s regulatory framework, in terms of scope and breadth, currently outpaces that of leading counterparts in Europe and the United States.

When we are talking about data security we have to consider the government level data breaching too. The alignment of interests between autocratic governments and AI technology is notable. Autocratic rulers seek the ability to predict the whereabouts, thoughts, and behaviors of citizens – a fundamental aspect of AI technology. This shared purpose creates a synergy between AI technology and autocratic governance. Given the significant data dependence of AI, regimes with authoritarian tendencies, known for extensive data collection, hold a distinct advantage. Companies with Chinese government contracts can leverage state data to enhance commercial projects.

China is poised to intensify research and development in advanced space technology, with potential implications for the country’s economy and national security. Scheduled for 2024, China’s lunar mission aims to retrieve the first-ever samples from the moon’s far side. Additionally, plans include sending Chinese astronauts to the moon by 2030 and establishing an international lunar research station. China has made remarkable strides in its space endeavors, achieving notable success in key programs such as the independently-run manned space station Tiangong, the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, and lunar and Mars exploration initiatives. And it provoked the US to reinvigorate their space missions.

China aims to explore outer space to expand humanity’s understanding of Earth and the cosmos. Simultaneously, the program seeks to foster global consensus on responsibly utilizing outer space for peaceful purposes and ensuring its security for the benefit of humanity. Additionally, the mission includes meeting the demands of economic, scientific, and technological development, national security, and social progress.

China’s major achievements in space science include the successful operation of the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, the high-resolution earth observation system, advancements in satellite communications and broadcasting, the completion of the lunar exploration program, and the establishment of China’s own space station. Notably, the Tianwen-1 Mars probe and the Zhurong Mars rover have marked China’s entry into interplanetary exploration.

Looking ahead, China aims to integrate space science, technology, and applications to support the new development philosophy and meet high-quality development requirements. Initiatives include upgrading Long March carrier rockets for non-toxic and pollution-free launches, deploying smarter modular technology, and introducing new-generation manned carrier rockets and high-thrust solid-fuel carrier rockets.

Preparations for the Chang’e-6 lunar mission are progressing smoothly, with plans for a relay satellite deployment in early 2024. The Chang’e-8 mission in 2028 invites global collaboration for unmanned lunar expeditions, emphasizing cooperation in spacecraft launch, orbit operation, spacecraft-to-spacecraft interactions, and lunar surface exploration. The mission aims to gather valuable data for the construction of a permanent international research station on the lunar south pole by 2040, aligning with China’s broader ambition to become a major space power.

Despite China’s rapid economic growth driven by technological advancements borrowed from developed economies and Russia, lingering concerns persist. It is clear that fostering innovation, optimizing incentive structures, and refining review systems are critical for maintaining this growth. Even in sectors where China holds a leading position, such as electric vehicles, the reliance on foreign technology underscores potential gaps in achieving complete self-sufficiency. But, it’s clear, China acknowledges the pivotal role of science and technology in its growth trajectory and is unwavering in its commitment to ensuring their sustained development. Prognostications indicate that China’s future growth in high technology will involve a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, biotechnology, green technology, internet, robots, artificial intelligence, and material science. Certain analysts contend that the present-day anxiety surrounding China’s artificial intelligence breakthroughs is reminiscent of earlier concerns regarding Soviet technology developments. They propose that these concerns might potentially propel technological growth in the United States by fostering the creation of increasingly sophisticated technologies.

March 12, 2024
India’s New Megacity in the Mouth of Malacca Strait: A Geopolitical Study

India is setting up a pioneering initiative by allocating a substantial investment of $9 billion (£7 billion) to establish a dynamic port city on Great Nicobar Island. Positioned at the entrance of the narrow Malacca Strait, serving as a gateway to the Indian Ocean, this ambitious project represents a transformative effort aimed at reshaping the regional dynamics. The comprehensive plan envisions the evolution of the Indian Ocean island, home to 8,000 inhabitants, into what has been termed the ‘Hong Kong of India.’ Which involves the creation of an international shipping terminal, airport, power plant, military base, and industrial park, strategically aligned with considerations for tourism development.

Location of Nicobar Islands

At the heart of this venture lies India’s dream for dominance over the Malacca trade route, adding layers of geopolitical significance. Predictably, environmentalists, often vocal opponents of infrastructure projects in developing nations, are already raising concerns about one of India’s most ambitious undertakings. Scholars from diverse global perspectives are collectively urging India to reassess its mega-construction plans for the island. Their cautionary message emphasizes that proceeding with the project could potentially deliver a ‘death sentence’ to the indigenous Shompen hunter-gatherer community residing there.

India’s Ambitious Plan

Great Nicobar Islands in Nicobar Islands Map

Nestled within the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago in India, Great Nicobar Island stands as a haven predominantly inhabited by tribes. As the largest and southernmost among the Nicobar Islands, its strategic positioning serves as a gateway to the vast Indian Ocean via the narrow Malacca Strait. Notably closer to Indonesia than the Indian Mainland, this island is located just 93 miles northwest of Aceh on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and approximately 800 miles east of Chennai on the Indian mainland.

Great Nicobar accommodates a population of Shompen people estimated to be between 100 and 400. Encompassing 921 km2 (356 sq mi), this sparsely inhabited island is characterized by lush rainforests, earning renown for its rich and diverse wildlife. Presently, the only signs of development on this often-neglected island are an airstrip of 915m at Campbell Bay/Ten Lua on the East coast and at least one small shipping dock.

The island’s history is marked by a significant event – the 2004 earthquake and tsunami – which brought dire consequences, including a day-long isolation from external interactions. Despite its strategic importance and ecological richness, Great Nicobar remains a largely undeveloped landscape, waiting to unfold its potential.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has unveiled an ambitious investment plan of $9 billion (€8.38 billion) to revolutionize Great Nicobar, envisioning it as a pivotal military and trade hub. The proposed developments encompass an international container terminal, deep-water port, dual-use airport, power plant, and a greenfield township, with the potential to elevate the population to the hundreds of thousands. Positioned strategically near the Malacca Strait, one of the world’s most bustling shipping lanes, the envisioned port in Galathea Bay adds a critical dimension to the plan.

There is a hopeful anticipation for the implementation of free trade policies, distinct laws, and a separate entity, similar to the Hong Kong model. Experts posit that the success of such island endeavors often hinges on exemptions from the mainland’s stringent regulations.

This visionary proposal, brought forth on January 18, 2021, by India’s policy development team NITI Aayog and informed by a comprehensive feasibility report from AECOM India Private Limited, projects a flourishing population of 650,000 inhabitants on the island by 2050. Currently, the island is home to a modest 8,500 residents, while the entire archipelago, comprising over 500 islands, with only about 40 inhabited, accommodates a total population of approximately 380,000. The anticipated population surge raises valid concerns about the substantial ecological pressure it may exert on the island and its environs.

A Stalemate For China

The enduring and contentious border dispute between China and India, Which is unrecognized by either side, has led to significant confrontations on multiple occasions. As India strengthens its alliances with key players like Japan and the U.S., China watches with heightened concern. Part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative strategically invests in India’s neighbors grappling with political and economic instability, including Pakistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. This financial leverage not only provides China with a considerable advantage but also allows it to shape political alliances and influence media narratives against India.

India’s foremost geopolitical challenge with China extends beyond the harsh geography and climate of the land border. It encompasses critical port leases, where vital transport hubs have fallen into Chinese hands due to the inability of recipient countries to repay substantial loans. Notably, Hamabanthotta, a key port leased to China, poses a significant threat to Indian navies, with reports of Chinese naval and spy ships utilizing these strategic locations. If tensions escalate, there is a potential for all Indian ports to be targeted from these Chinese-controlled ports, pushing these nations into a proxy war, given their high dependency on China.

The economic repercussions are twofold: these Chinese ports not only divert trade routes between China and Europe away from traditional Indian ports like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Kochi but also contribute to an economic setback for India. Amidst this complex scenario, India’s newly proposed port city emerges as a potential game-changer. Positioned strategically at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, a critical juncture in the China-Europe trade route, it becomes a focal point in one of the world’s most vital economic conduits in terms of goods’ value and shipping volume. The Indian navy’s presence in these waters creates a strategic stalemate, compelling Chinese ships to navigate through this crucial point, providing India with both economic and military advantages. Despite China exploring alternative land routes through Russia and Pakistan, the conventional route through the Malacca Strait remains irreplaceable. Any Indian blockade in the Malacca Strait could significantly impact the Chinese economy.

The West Bloc’s Opposition

The Western powers, notably the USA and UK, exerting their influence in the Indian Ocean, harbor reservations about India akin to their concerns about China. Despite their inclination to counterbalance China, they are cautious about empowering India too much. Western nations, alongside China, are wary of India gaining an upper hand in the trade route that facilitates 60 percent of global maritime trade. In contrast to the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait region doesn’t currently pose many problems. because there are no unilateral claims. It includes the territorial waters of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and India, which is a major player in the area. Even if no one country wants to rule the route by itself, India’s bold actions on Great Nicobar, which were previously disregarded, indicate a change in its strategic priorities. With this action, India’s influence in the Malacca Strait is expected to grow.

As the initial stages of discontent, the US and UK media expressed numerous reservations about the Nicobar project. Concerns have been prominently raised, particularly in relation to the Great Nicobar actions, with a focus on potential impacts on the Shompen community, deforestation, and seismic activity in the region. This scrutiny has been extensively covered by sources such as The Guardian, BBC, and Deutsche Welle. Evidently, Western nations, disapproving of India’s approach in Great Nicobar, are adhering to their established method of critiquing infrastructure projects in developing countries.. The alignment of India’s trajectory with China’s stirs expectations among Western powers that India will assertively seek a more substantial share in the region. This, in turn, is foreseen to directly impact the trade flowing through this pivotal route.

In Summary

A significant geopolitical shift looms on the horizon if India proceeds with its Great Nicobar plan. This strategic move promises an unprecedented advantage for India in the Malacca Strait. China, finding itself potentially blocked from the Indian Ocean, faces a challenge in advancing its cooperation with India unless its trade route is jeopardized in an unprecedented manner. The impact could be substantial for smaller nations heavily dependent on the trade route. Therefore, the persisting rivalry for influence between China and India in these smaller countries is expected to endure.

It is evident that India is strategically deploying its trump card against China, presenting a formidable challenge. Interestingly, this shift is not welcomed by Western nations, adding an intriguing layer to the evolving geopolitical landscape

February 24, 2024
Why is Free Kurdistan Not Happening?

Kurdistan, the homeland of the Kurds, remains unrecognized by the world and is confronted with an unprecedented threat to its survival. The autonomous region in Iraq, having established separate administrations, military structures, and a distinct identity, is actively advocating for complete statehood but finds itself in a state of limbo.

As the United States’ closest ally in the region, with a majority Kurdish population, Kurdistan faces existential threats from neighboring countries that harbor a considerable Kurdish population antagonistic to their cause. Despite contemplating the immediate availability of statehood, the Kurds are indeed grappling with significant existential challenges. Various reasons contribute to the threats to the Kurds’ long standing aspiration for statehood, ranging from internal issues to concerns about the weakening of the American government.

The original Kurdistan, also referred to as Greater Kurdistan, is a loosely defined geo-cultural region in West Asia where Kurds constitute a significant majority population, and the foundation of Kurdish culture, languages, and national identity is deeply rooted. Geographically, Kurdistan spans the northwestern Zagros and the eastern Taurus mountain ranges.

Map of Kurdistan (Image Courtesy: Fondation-Institut kurde de Paris)

Kurdistan is commonly divided into four regions: Northern Kurdistan (southeastern Turkey), Southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq), Eastern Kurdistan (northwestern Iran), and Western Kurdistan (northern Syria). Some interpretations extend its boundaries into parts of southern Transcaucasia. Different Kurdish nationalist groups advocate for either an independent nation-state covering these regions with a Kurdish majority or increased autonomy within existing national boundaries. The precise demarcation of the region remains a contentious issue, with certain maps exaggerating its scope.

As of a 2016 estimate from the Kurdish Institute of Paris, Kurdistan’s total population is around 34.5 million, with Kurds constituting 86% of the population in Northern Kurdistan. The region also includes Arab, Turkish, Assyrian (Syriac), Armenian, and Azerbaijani minorities. Southern Kurdistan hosts Christian (Assyrian and Armenian) and Turkish (Turkmen) minorities. Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran have significant Caucasian populations that underwent Kurdification, adopting Kurdish as their primary language. Kurdish, part of the Indo-European language family except for the Semitic and Turkic languages around them, is a crucial component of Kurdish identity.

Geographically, Kurdistan covers approximately 190,000 km² in Turkey, 125,000 km² in Iran, 65,000 km² in Iraq, and 12,000 km² in Syria, totaling around 392,000 km². Turkish Kurdistan encompasses a substantial area in the Eastern Anatolia Region and southeastern Anatolia of Turkey, with an estimated 6 to 8 million Kurds residing in the region.

The term “Kurdistan” has historical origins, first documented in 11th-century Seljuk chronicles. From the 8th to the 19th centuries, a multitude of Kurdish dynasties, emirates, principalities, and chiefdoms emerged. In the 20th century, there were short-lived attempts to establish Kurdish entities, including the Kurdish state (1918–1919), Kingdom of Kurdistan (1921–1924), Red Kurdistan (1923–1929), Republic of Ararat (1927–1930), and Republic of Mahabad (1946).

Map of Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Image Courtesy: University of Kurdistan Hewlêr)

Iraqi Kurdistan, which has the most chance for getting statehood and recognition from the international bodies, obtained autonomous status through a 1970 agreement with the Iraqi government, solidified as the autonomous Kurdistan Region within the federal Iraqi republic in 2005. In Iran, there is a Kurdistan Province, though it lacks self-rule. Kurds involved in the Syrian Civil War successfully seized control of significant portions of northern Syria, establishing self-governing regions under the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (commonly known as Rojava), where they aspire to achieve autonomy within a federal Syria post-war.

A 2010 report from the United States, predating the instability in Syria and Iraq as of 2014, predicted the potential existence of Kurdistan by the year 2030. The vulnerability of the Iraqi state, exacerbated by the 2014 Northern Iraq offensive by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, created an opening for Iraqi Kurdistan to pursue independence. Turkey, while historically opposing Kurdish autonomy in Turkey and Syria, shifted its stance toward acknowledging the possibility of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq.

Turkey’s long standing fear has been that a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq would fuel and support Kurdish separatists in Turkish provinces, leading to strong opposition to Kurdish independence in Iraq. However, amidst the chaos following the US invasion of Iraq, Turkey began collaborating more closely with the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government. Despite this, the mere mention or expression of ‘Kurdistan’ in Turkey still carries the risk of detention and prosecution.

The successful 2014 Northern Iraq offensive by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant further weakened the Iraqi state’s ability to exert power, providing the Kurds with a “golden opportunity” to enhance their independence and potentially declare an independent Kurdish state. The Islamic State’s hostility towards Turkey made Kurdistan strategically valuable to Turkey as a buffer state. In June 2014, a spokesman for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party expressed Turkey’s readiness to accept an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

Kurdistan, endowed with abundant oil resources, has been actively engaging in economic cooperation and securing oil deals primarily with its volatile neighbor, Syria. Despite the complexities surrounding the Kurdish issue in Syria, significant oil contracts have been forged between Kurdistan and Syria. Additionally, Iran, which has recently taken a stronger stance against Kurds in the region, particularly following the Mahsini issue, has also established increased economic cooperation with Kurdistan.

According to the Iranian Free Zones News Agency (Freena), Hojatollah Abdolmaleki disclosed the collaboration during a press conference at Iran’s exclusive exhibition in Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan region. Abdolmaleki emphasized the pivotal role of the newly established free zone in fostering cooperation between Iran and Kurdistan. The opening ceremony of the exhibition saw the participation of senior officials from both sides, including Abdolmaleki, the secretary general of the Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce, the Iranian envoy in Sulaymaniyah, and the head of the Union of Exporters and Importers of the Kurdistan Region.

Despite several promises for statehood from the United States, Iraq, the United Nations, and occasionally from Turkey, the Kurds have faced numerous obstacles, particularly prolonged referendums driven by various reasons. Although they came close to achieving statehood in 2017, even their allies rejected the prospect. The Iraqi government has reclaimed territories once occupied by the Kurds, including areas with significant oil reserves. The collapse of oil revenues has left the Kurds grappling with serious financial challenges.

In addition to Turkey, Iran has also intensified actions against the Kurds, further contributing to the Kurds’ predicament. A significant division exists within the Kurdish population, with the ruling KDP party leaning towards Iran’s support rather than aligning with the Iraqi federal government. The United States has a vested interest in the region, providing military aid and financial assistance, with a notable presence of administrators and officials in Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan. However, the inactive governance and increased Iranian intervention have posed challenges.

Despite the current difficulties, a people with a long history of fighting for their identity and a homeland are likely to find a solution to their current problems. However, the extended decision-making process by the United States could jeopardize a key and reliable ally in the region, potentially leading to strategic consequences.

February 11, 2024