How long will Syria remain a battleground?
After Sunni Islamist rebels captured Aleppo, the Syrian civil war once again grabbed international attention. The conflict, which began in 2011 between Syria’s official government under authoritarian leader Bashar al-Assad and the opposition, has now lasted almost 14 years, claiming nearly 600,000 lives and displacing at least 10 million people. It has filled headlines at various points over the years and shows no signs of slowing down. The civil war in Syria has undoubtedly become one of the biggest disasters in the 21st century and a significant benchmark in modern warfare. While, on the surface, the war appears to be a power struggle between Assad and the opposition, a closer examination reveals a deeper dynamic. The war involves numerous parties, each pursuing its own interests, and Syria has become a battleground for various countries.
President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’athist government receives political and military support from its Shia partner, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and its long-time ally, Russia, another authoritarian regime. The Lebanese Hezbollah group, the Palestinian PFLP-GC, and other factions also actively back the regime. Since September 30, 2015, Russia has deployed military assets in Syria, conducting a major air campaign against anti-government forces at Assad’s request. The U.S. and its regional allies have criticized Russia’s military actions. However, these regional allies soon pursued their own interests in the war. In November 2015, Turkey, a U.S. ally, clashed with Russia over alleged airspace violations and Russian bombings of areas in Syria that were supported by Turkey’s anti-government factions. Meanwhile, the United States did not align with Turkey and ran its own operations.
The Syrian opposition, represented politically by the Syrian National Coalition, receives financial, logistical, and sometimes military support from Sunni-majority states allied with the U.S., particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-majority group fighting against Assad in northern Syria, receive military and logistical support from NATO countries, except Turkey, due to their historic rivalry. Instead of helping them, Turkey fights the SDF and has captured a significant amount of territory from them.
Besides the superpowers and their factions, from 2014 to October 2017, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), a group internationally recognized as a terrorist organization, controlled a significant portion of Syria’s territory. During this period, Western nations, including the U.S., Russia, Britain, and France, conducted direct military actions against ISIL in Syria and Iraq. Now, ISIL has shrunk to only a few desert pockets.
As of December 2024, five key countries are directing the war in Syria: the United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Israel. Despite its war in Ukraine, Russia remains a staunch supporter of Assad’s regime. Even after Islamist advances in Aleppo, Russia continues to send support to Assad, signaling its long-term plans in the region. By the summer of 2023, Russia had maintained 20 military bases and 85 other military points in Syria, with plans to enhance infrastructure to strengthen its military presence and capabilities.
As Iran seeks to cement Shia dominance in Syria, engage in a power struggle with Israel, and ensure Assad’s regime remains strong, it actively supports Shia militants in Syria. Neighboring Lebanon and Iraq, though not directly involved, serve as havens for militants, effectively acting as breeding grounds for various Shia armed groups.
The United States remains present in Syria, albeit with reduced involvement compared to earlier years. It operates a small portion near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders and supports rebel factions in the region. The U.S. maintains strong ties with Kurdish forces, now the second-largest military group in Syria, who control significant territory in the northeast.
Turkey, a NATO member and nominal U.S. ally, pursues its own agenda in Syria. Opposed to both Assad and the Kurds, Turkey has seized and controls large areas in northern Syria, creating a buffer zone. Turkish forces have clashed with Kurdish groups, and Ankara reportedly has ties to Sunni Islamist factions, including HTS, which recently captured Aleppo. Turkey’s primary goal is to establish a Sunni, anti-Kurdish opposition presence in the region.
Israel remains highly active in Syria, viewing Iranian involvement in the country as a direct threat. Israeli forces frequently target Iranian officials and Hezbollah members operating in Syria, particularly those linked to attacks on Israel. If opportunities arise, Israel may also seek to expand its territorial control in the region.
What is the future of the Syrian civil war? When will it end? How long will it last?
The answer is that it will continue. Syria has already collapsed, but the war will persist as long as foreign powers maintain their interests in Syria. A complete takeover by Assad, as seen in the past, is unlikely. Russia and Iran, Assad’s key allies, are deeply entangled in other wars and face significant financial strains, limiting their ability to recapture all the territory back.
The United States, under leadership like Trump’s, is unlikely to deploy troops actively to support the rebels against Russia and Iran. However, the U.S. will not entirely abandon the Opposition and Kurds, as they align with American interests in the region.
Meanwhile, Turkey will remain a major player, continuing its support for HTS and other anti-Kurd factions. The conflict is evolving into a three-way war, with Assad’s official army, supported by Russia and Iranian-backed Shia militias, on one side; Kurdish forces and U.S.-backed militias on another; and HTS, Turkey, and Sunni militias on the third.
These factions will continue to clash, ensuring that Syria endures more bloodshed and tears in the years ahead.
