Is Syria Entering a New Era of Peace?
After thirteen years of devastating civil war—claiming around 600,000 lives and displacing six million—rebels have seized Damascus, ending Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian regime. Once a symbol of unshakable power, Assad has fled, leaving behind a nation scarred by his rule and the violence that defined it. The Islamist coalition Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is now administrating Damascus. Their triumphant march through Syrian cities is marked by the hoisting of a new flag—a poignant echo of the 1930s nationalist movement against French colonial rule. This banner, now embraced by crowds and draped along Damascus’s streets, signifies more than a regime’s collapse; it is a declaration of an era’s end.
For decades, the Syrian Arab Republic operated less as a democratic state and more as a personal fiefdom under the Assad dynasty. Yet, as the dust settles, the flag’s promise of renewal carries an unspoken question: will this new chapter fulfill the dreams of a fractured nation, or will it lead to yet another uncharted and precarious path?
A fragile yet palpable sense of hope has begun to spread across Syria in the wake of Assad’s official ouster from the war—a moment that feels almost surreal to a population accustomed to despair. For those who once fled the carnage, enduring the indignities of life as migrants, the news signals the faintest possibility of a return, however uncertain, to a land they scarcely recognize. In liberated cities, the crackle of celebratory gunfire fills the air, and once-omnipresent statues of Assad are toppled with theatrical fervor. Rebels parade captured allies of the former regime through the streets, as the nation’s official flag—its somber hues now synonymous with repression—is replaced with the green-bannered emblem of the opposition. It is a victory both symbolic and intoxicating.
This moment is being hailed as another hard-won victory for the Arab Spring’s enduring mission to unseat entrenched dictatorships across the Arab world. Yet the cost of this triumph is staggering: thirteen years of relentless conflict, nearly half a million lives lost, and the displacement of more than half of the population—a scale of human suffering that defies comprehension. The rebels’ lightning-fast march from their stronghold in Idlib to Damascus, achieved in a mere two weeks, has drawn inevitable comparisons to the Taliban’s startlingly swift seizure of Kabul. In Syria’s case, the speed of the advance lays bare the hollowed-out power of Assad’s government and the waning influence of its embattled backers, Russia and Iran
Syria’s descent into chaos was never simply a civil war; it was a stage upon which global powers enacted their rivalries. The United States, Israel, and a constellation of Sunni states found themselves embroiled in a proxy confrontation against Russia and Iran, each seeking to reshape the region’s political contours to their advantage. Now, with reports suggesting that President Bashar al-Assad has fled to Russia alongside his family, the once formidable Russia-Iran axis seems on the brink of relinquishing its tenuous hold over Syria’s fractured state.
Amid the shifting alliances and fractured ambitions of Syria’s long war, Turkey has emerged as the unequivocal victor in a geopolitical chess that drew in superpowers and regional actors alike. What began as a conflict shaped by American support for liberal factions and the staunch backing of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Russia and Iran—complicated further by the shadowy maneuvers of Israel and the Sunni bloc—soon morphed into a theater where Ankara played a decisive hand. Faced with the dual pressures of a staggering migrant crisis and an emboldened Kurdish presence along its southern border, Turkey deftly repositioned itself from a peripheral participant to a central player, reshaping the war’s trajectory in ways that no other power could.
Under Turkey’s strategic direction, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—a Sunni Islamist organization deemed a terrorist group by the United States—cemented alliances with Turkish-backed factions, forging a cohesive and well-supported coalition. Operating from its stronghold in Idlib, HTS received Turkish logistical and tactical support, including training that bolstered its capacity to wage a coordinated campaign. As these forces advanced with astonishing speed, ultimately seizing control in Damascus, Turkey’s influence in Syria became unmistakable. This ascendancy not only underscores Ankara’s newfound leverage but also signals a revival of Turkey’s long-diminished prominence in the complex power dynamics of the Middle East.
Will the rebels’ triumph herald a lasting peace in Syria? The answer, steeped in the country’s deep-seated divisions, remains elusive. Even as the official government signals a willingness to cooperate with the rebel coalition and promises elections, skepticism pervades. A significant segment of the population—primarily Alawites and Shias—continues to rally behind Assad, their allegiance rooted in sectarian solidarity. Adding to the complexity is the Christian minority’s apprehension toward the Sunni Islamist factions that now dominate the coalition. Distrust runs deep, and it is far from certain that a religiously aligned organization can effectively navigate the intricacies of Syria’s fractured social fabric.
For the Sunni rebels, forging alliances with these wary communities poses a daunting challenge. Within their own coalition, cracks are already visible, with the specter of internal discord looming and threatening to unravel their fragile unity. Adding to the precariousness is the broader geopolitical chessboard. The risk of another civil war hangs heavy over this uneasy settlement. For now, the promise of peace remains as tenuous as ever, a fragile hope in a nation scarred by relentless conflict and irreconcilable divisions.
The fall of the Assad regime and the rise of a new administration in Damascus have been met with widespread approval across the globe. The United States and France, two of the West’s most prominent actors in Syria, have openly expressed support for the shift in power. Turkey, meanwhile, has welcomed the outcome, as has Saudi Arabia, which now champions the Sunni-led takeover. Israel, too, seems content, having played a role in Assad’s decline through its strikes on Hezbollah, and now looks favorably upon the prospect of a Sunni populist government in Damascus.
Despite the optimistic global response, a pressing question lingers: can Syria’s deeply divided population come together under the new administration? Should the proposed government adopt a Sunni Islamist constitution, could this herald yet another chapter of turmoil, akin to the upheavals that followed other Arab Spring uprisings? The answer remains uncertain, as the country’s fractures, both sectarian and political, threaten to undo even the most well-intentioned reforms.
