Myanmar’s Junta Moves Toward Elections, but Fears of a Farce Persist

Despite Myanmar’s ongoing civil war, the junta is pressing ahead with plans for an election. Rather than seeking peace or addressing the country’s deepening crisis, it is focused on tightening its grip on key cities through political maneuvering and the familiar tactics of sham elections used by other authoritarian regimes.

On the surface, this move appears to be an attempt to pacify critics and draw advancing rebel groups into the political process. Yet, with the junta widely despised across the country, its promise of elections in December 2025 or January 2026 is seen as little more than political theater. A genuinely fair vote would almost certainly result in the military’s defeat—an outcome it is unlikely to accept. So, instead of bringing stability, the election is expected to escalate violence, fuel repression, and serve as yet another means for the junta to cling to power.

The Call for an Election

Myanmar’s military junta announced on Saturday, through state media, that it would hold a long-promised election—its first time specifying a timeline since seizing power in a 2021 coup. The announcement follows junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s recent visit to Moscow, where Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly endorsed the plan.

China, a key military ally with significant economic interests in Myanmar, has also expressed support for the elections. Meanwhile, Belarus, another close partner of the junta, has signaled its willingness to assist in the process. However, most Western governments and election watchdogs are expected to dismiss the vote as a sham, lacking both credibility and legitimacy.

A challenging election

An election—if conducted under genuine democratic principles—would be fraught with challenges, as opposition parties are either banned or have chosen to boycott the process. Nearly 22,000 political prisoners remain behind bars, according to a local monitoring group, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate and former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, whose government was overthrown in 2021. Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), was dissolved after failing to re-register under an electoral law imposed by the junta following the coup.

Beyond political repression, the feasibility of holding nationwide elections remains highly questionable. The military has lost control of vast swathes of the country to a patchwork of opposition groups actively resisting its rule. The junta’s territorial losses have been so severe that it managed to conduct a full census—intended to prepare voter lists—in fewer than half (145) of the country’s 330 townships. A BBC-commissioned study estimates that the military now controls only 21% of Myanmar’s territory, though it still dominates key, densely populated cities.

So, the prospect of holding nationwide elections that genuinely represent the entire country and all its people is not only a formidable challenge but an almost impossible task.

Path to more bloodshed

Rather than bringing peace or stability, the election is expected to escalate violence. For ordinary people in Myanmar, it represents a source of fear and uncertainty. When the military conducted its census last year, many were too afraid to respond, while those tasked with carrying it out feared being targeted by opposition forces. A similar scenario could unfold during the election.

Analysts warn that the junta, which has brutally suppressed dissent since the coup, will likely resort to even greater force to ensure polling takes place in the areas it still controls, leading to intensified confrontations. It is almost certain that opposition groups, currently in an aggressive stance, will resist, increasing the risk of prolonged conflict.

How will it unfold?

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has long pledged to hold elections but has repeatedly extended the state of emergency, delaying the process. During a visit to Belarus, he stated that the election would be held in December 2025 or by January 2026. He also claimed that 53 political parties had registered to participate.

Min Aung Hlaing further announced that the military would invite Belarusian teams to observe the election. His statement came during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has held power for more than three decades and recently secured a seventh five-year term in an election widely dismissed as a sham.

The junta’s decision to align itself with regimes well-versed in orchestrating controlled elections raises serious concerns. Given past patterns across the region, the vote is likely to be carefully engineered to guarantee victory for junta-backed parties, ensuring the military’s continued grip on power.