Myanmar Junta in Trouble as Rebels Seize Strategic Military Base
The civil war in Myanmar, involving the military junta and an alliance of ethnic armies, is intensifying. The junta, formed after the 2021 coup d’état, is losing more territory to ethnic tribal armies, which are advocating for democracy despite their previous conflicts with Myanmar’s democratic governments. The coup and subsequent suppression united these ethnic armies, leading to the formation of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which is now waging war against the junta.
In a recent development, ethnic rebels in Myanmar have captured a key military base, the army’s Northeast Command in Lashio, dealing a significant blow to the military junta. This is seen as the biggest setback for Myanmar’s military government this year. The fall of Lashio’s Northeast Command underscores the growing strength and confidence of opposition forces, putting the military junta in a difficult position.
Lashio, the largest town in Shan State, Myanmar’s biggest state, lies just 110 km from the Chinese border. As an important trading hub, Lashio will provide political and economic benefits to the opposition. Losing control of this town and state could be the junta’s most significant defeat. The MNDAA has been targeting Lashio since launching its offensive in October, initially facing several setbacks. However, among Myanmar’s 14 regional commands, the Northeast Command in Lashio is the first to fall to armed resistance groups.
The situation is dire for the junta, as the military had recently reinforced the Lashio base with around 3,000 troops. Yet, within a month, the base fell, leading to the surrender of over 1,000 soldiers. The commander of the Northeast Military Region, along with his two brigadier-general deputies, has been captured, marking them as the highest-ranking prisoners of war to date. This setback raises concerns that the ruling military council might have to abandon its efforts to hold contested territories and concentrate on defending the central heartland. It may also increase discontent with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power by overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. Doubts are growing about whether the Army can continue to function effectively under his leadership.
On Monday, Myanmar’s military regime acknowledged losing communication with the commanders of a strategically important Army headquarters in the northeast, lending credibility to claims from a militia group that it had captured the base. Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for Myanmar’s ruling military council, said in an audio statement on state-run MRTV television that contact was lost with the Northeastern Command headquarters on Saturday night and that there were unconfirmed reports of some commanders being arrested by the MNDAA. Min also noted that the alliance was receiving weapons, including drones and short-range missiles, from unidentified foreign sources.
The situation has remained difficult for the military junta since last year. In October, through a campaign called Operation 1027, the MNDAA captured large areas of territory along the border with China, including numerous townships and hundreds of junta-held posts. While the MNDAA had previously taken a regional military headquarters in Laukkaing, a key city on the Chinese border, the capture of the Lashio headquarters is even more significant. Many political analysts believe that the success of recent attacks in Shan State will boost the confidence of other factions in Myanmar, with reports indicating that the Arakan Army in the Rakhine state is increasing its strikes.
The civil war in Myanmar has claimed the lives of over 5,000 civilians since 2021. Millions have been displaced internally, and the country’s economy is in tatters. The conflict is escalating, especially in Shan State and western Myanmar. According to Myanmar’s National Unity Government, a coalition of ousted democratically elected lawmakers seeking to establish a parallel government, resistance forces controlled over 60% of the nation’s territory prior to the capture of Lashio. There is speculation that the fighting may intensify and spread as opposition groups target towns and cities long regarded as military strongholds, such as Myawaddy and Mandalay. Mandalay, an economic and cultural hub, is located just over 200 kilometers from Lashio. Additionally, Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, faced an unprecedented attack that month when armed groups launched drone strikes and targeted military installations in the city. So, it looks like Junta is in big trouble.
