Tag: Egypt

  • The Emirates Strategic Charm Offensive in Africa

    The Emirates Strategic Charm Offensive in Africa

    Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two ambitious nations seeking superpower status, have invested heavily in this pursuit, leveraging their immense wealth. Both have utilized Islam as their principal tool of influence, channeling resources into spreading their interpretations of the faith worldwide. Their efforts have included significant investments in conversion campaigns, mosque construction, and the global promotion of their ideologies. In addition, they have financed a variety of political and extremist groups, strengthening their foothold in numerous countries across the globe. More recently, however, the two states have turned to sports as their latest vector for influence. Qatar’s successful bid to host the FIFA World Cup stands as a remarkable testament to this strategy, while both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have secured high-profile sports deals and events. Beyond these pursuits, the Gulf states continue to invest in myriad ways—enhancing their soft power, cementing their global stature, and attempting, with varying success, to stake their claim as new superpowers.

    However, there is another country in the Gulf region that employs strategies to increase its soft power in a quieter, more effective way: the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Often seen in the shadow of Saudi Arabia, the UAE has pursued its own distinct agenda. Over time, it has crafted a positive image, positioning itself as a force separate from the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Today, the UAE is the most invested and influential country in Africa, gradually establishing itself as a superpower through calculated diplomacy and strategic investments.

    The influence of the United Arab Emirates in Africa has grown unmistakably in recent years, as it has quietly cemented itself as the leading backer of new business ventures across the continent.  With many African nations eager to meet their urgent development needs, the UAE has positioned itself as a key partner, offering substantial investments with a sharp focus on green energy and infrastructure. Between 2019 and 2023, Emirati companies committed $110 billion to various projects, $72 billion of which was dedicated to renewable energy, according to FT Locations, a data firm owned by the Financial Times. This surpasses the combined pledges of the UK, France, and China, whose investments in African infrastructure have waned due to disappointing returns. As many African leaders grow increasingly disillusioned by the underwhelming climate finance commitments from Western governments, the UAE’s persistent investment strategy has earned it a reputation for reliability. At the COP29 conference, while Western nations promised a mere $300 billion annually—far less than the $1.3 trillion requested by developing countries—the UAE’s ongoing contributions stand as a clear and deliberate contrast, signaling not only economic strength, but an increasingly strategic diplomatic footprint across the African continent.

    The UAE’s influence in Africa has grown with subtlety and purpose, particularly in North and East Africa, where it has been an unspoken yet significant actor in the conflicts that have plagued Libya and Sudan. Unlike the international powerhouses of China and India, the UAE has kept a low profile in the global superpower race, often escaping the glaring scrutiny of the Western media or outlets such as Al Jazeera. This relative invisibility, in fact, has worked to the UAE’s advantage. Far from courting attention or controversy, it operates in the shadows, its investments flowing with far less opposition or critique, thus allowing its strategic engagement across Africa to unfold with remarkable ease.

    The UAE’s influence in Africa has grown with quiet determination too, largely through the early efforts of Dubai’s port and airline companies, which were among the first to establish a robust presence on the continent. Emirates, the airline controlled by the Dubai royal family, now services 20 African nations, a footprint that underscores its growing reach. Similarly, DP World, a state-owned giant, has been a fixture in the region since 2006. It currently oversees six ports and is planning to expand its footprint with two more. Abu Dhabi Ports has also made significant inroads, managing Kamsar Port in Guinea since 2013, and recently securing new concessions in Egypt, the Republic of Congo, and Angola. Angola stands out as the only country where both DP World and Abu Dhabi Ports are active. The UAE has not been swayed from its commitment to East Africa, but rather is seeking to extend its influence and connectivity toward the Americas, particularly Latin America.

    The UAE’s economic interests are equally broad, as Emirati firms diversify investments across sectors like agriculture and telecoms. Notably, since 2022, Dubai royal Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook al-Maktoum has brokered deals to sell carbon credits from vast forests in several African nations—spanning 20% of Zimbabwe, 10% of Liberia, 10% of Zambia, and 8% of Tanzania. The UAE’s investments are shaping a new kind of geopolitical engagement—strategic, expansive, and far-reaching, yet executed largely beneath the radar.

    Emirati investments are reshaping long standing power dynamics in the mining sector too. One of the more surprising moves came when International Resource Holdings (IRH), a company controlled by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s national security adviser, secured a $1.1 billion deal to acquire a 51% stake in Zambia’s Mopani Copper Mines. The announcement caught many off guard, as the shortlist of potential investors had long been expected to feature China’s Zijin Mining and South Africa’s Sibanye Stillwater. This shift occurred after Zambia’s state-run mining company, ZCCM, took over the ailing Mopani Copper Mines from Glencore in 2021, a transaction weighed down by crippling debt and the need for a fresh infusion of capital. Despite Sheikh Tahnoon’s company having no prior mining experience, the deal ultimately won over Zambian officials. IRH’s promise to invest heavily in the mine while maintaining jobs, coupled with its recruitment of world-class expertise, proved a compelling combination that outweighed conventional expectations. The transaction not only symbolized the UAE’s growing role in the sector, but also reflected a shift in how capital from the Gulf is infiltrating industries long dominated by larger, more established players. And there is the growing amount of illegally smuggled gold from African countries to Dubai. Research by the NGO Swissaid revealed a significant discrepancy between official exports from African nations to Dubai and the emirate’s actual imports. From 2012 to 2022, this difference amounted to 2,569 tons of gold, valued at an astonishing $115.3 billion. This surge in illicit gold trade further exemplifies the UAE’s influence in Africa.

    There is little doubt that pouring money into sporting events like the World Cup has granted Saudi Arabia and Qatar significant attention and influence, particularly within global sporting bodies. This is a form of influence, yes, but one rooted in wealth rather than subtlety. What sets the UAE apart is how its investments have drawn politicians, not only to its coffers, but also closer to its vision for regional and global dominance. In Africa, it can be argued that UAE influence is more refined and effective than that of its neighbors, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The latter maintains control over some of the most conservative Islamic nations, but it is the UAE’s diverse portfolio—spanning trade, infrastructure, and energy—that has given it the upper hand.

    While investment from traditional Western powers such as the United States and Europe has dwindled, often discouraged by the outspoken stances of African leaders, and the investments from China, India, and Russia have similarly faltered amid American political concerns, a perfect opening has emerged for the UAE. With fewer competitors and a clearer path forward, the UAE has seized the opportunity. As it continues to amplify its investments and diplomatic strategies, the Emirates have become arguably the most influential Gulf state in Africa, marking a significant shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.

  • BRICS Shows Strength in Russia

    BRICS Shows Strength in Russia

    There are many multinational alliances in the world today, such as the European Union, NATO, the GCC, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and ASEAN. Most of these are regional organizations focused on enhancing cooperation and elevating the importance of their respective regions. However, BRICS stands apart as a unique entity—neither regional nor military like NATO. Instead, it is an international body created as an alternative to the dominance of the United States. BRICS, originally formed as BRIC in 2009 with the addition of Brazil to the team of Russia, India, and China—four of the world’s top 10 economies—was later joined by South Africa. The group initially aimed to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and U.S. technology while boosting investment opportunities. Now in its 16th year, BRICS has become an increasingly significant geopolitical bloc. They are currently holding their 16th summit in Kazan, Russia, chaired by Vladimir Putin, a leader ostracized by the West, with more than 36 global leaders in attendance. The summit underscores the group’s independence and its indifference to the United States and the West.

    Beyond the typical photo shoots, the 16th summit in Kazan showcases the unity of its members. Several meetings are planned among various state leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This summit also marks the debut of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The expanded membership suggests a shift toward alliances reminiscent of the Cold War era, when states formed strong, politically driven partnerships. Despite economic threats from the United States, all participants are eager to cooperate, and Putin is using the occasion to assert Russia’s enduring global relevance. The summit can be viewed as a personal success for Putin, as he has brought together nations like China and India, which were previously on the verge of conflict in a way that questions the existence of the bloc.

    The meeting between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Indian Prime minister Narendra Modi takes place after five years as part of the summit. The relationship between China and India was very strained, following deadly fights at the border. Emerging reports indicate that China and India are actively working to resolve their border disputes and are ready to cooperate as they did in earlier years. This development poses a significant setback to U.S. efforts to divide the coalition and pull India to its side.

    Russia is also using the Kazan BRICS summit to push de-dollarization as a key agenda item. With Western sanctions severely impacting its businesses, Russia is seeking alternatives, and China, with its expansionist ambitions, is also anticipating potential sanctions. Iran, a new BRICS member, has likewise suffered under U.S. sanctions. Together, these countries are advocating for a faster transition to de-dollarization, increased use of local currencies in trade, and the strengthening of financial institutions as alternatives to U.S.-controlled banks. However, there is some resistance from India, Brazil, and South Africa, which are hesitant to accelerate the process despite their shared goal of finding an alternative to the dollar.

    The summit is expected to yield agreements on expanding trade routes and enhancing cooperation. Strengthening trade ties has been BRICS’ biggest achievement to date, helping Russia and Iran maintain relatively stable economies despite harsh Western sanctions. If India and China can rebuild their cooperation, the group’s economic power will grow significantly. Russia is working hard toward this goal, and key meetings and important decisions are anticipated at this iteration of the BRICS Summit.

    Most people in the West may not even be aware of BRICS, but it’s evident that something significant is brewing in the East that could counterbalance the United States. BRICS+ now boasts a larger GDP than the G7 or the EU, and its banks and institutions prioritize equal participation, unlike those dominated by the U.S. While Russia and China have demonstrated their capacity to challenge American influence, the inclusion of members like India, Iran, and Brazil suggests the group is poised to push further against U.S. interests. Although still in its early stages, BRICS has already proven capable of bypassing strict U.S. sanctions through enhanced cooperation. Politically, the 2024 BRICS Summit presents a challenge to U.S. dominance in global politics and represents a pivotal moment for Putin, signaling his and Russia’s resurgence on the global stage.

  • Why Doesn’t the Islamic World Have a Superpower to Challenge Israel?

    Why Doesn’t the Islamic World Have a Superpower to Challenge Israel?

    The conflict between Muslims and Jews has historical roots extending over centuries, primarily driven by religious differences rather than just territorial disputes. This is why the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict attracts worldwide attention and involves Muslims and Jews globally. Social media is abuzz with propaganda from both sides. However, on the ground, Israel has a significant advantage as a sovereign state with advanced project management, while Hamas, which governs Gaza and initiated the fresh wave of conflict with terrorist attacks in Israel, finds itself on the defensive with only weakened support from Iran. The conflict appears to be heavily skewed in favor of one side, with the Hamas side suffering greatly.

    In terms of international politics, Israel receives support from superpowers like the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, while countries like Russia, China, and India maintain a more neutral stance. This support provides Israel with a substantial advantage. On the other hand, Hamas and Gaza mainly receive backing from Iran, whose capabilities are in question. This raises the question: why are there no superpowers in the Arab or Muslim world capable of challenging Israel?

    The answer lies in U.S. supremacy in a unipolar world. Although there is widespread anger and calls for solidarity with Hamas across the Islamic world, which stretches from Morocco to Indonesia, these are largely limited to public statements. This situation represents a clear victory for U.S. diplomacy, which has either aligned powerful countries with U.S. interests or severely weakened others. A powerful or superpower country typically has strong leadership, economic influence, political influence, strong international alliances, and a strong military, but few countries in the Islamic world possess all these features combined. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey are considered powerful countries within the Islamic world today, but they are all aligned with the United States. Turkey is a NATO member with tight ties to the U.S., while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are highly reliant on business with the U.S., and their leadership maintains strong connections with U.S. diplomats. They also have military defense pacts with the U.S. Qatar, one of the wealthiest Islamic countries, also maintains a close relationship with the U.S. Despite their connections with Islamist leaders and organizations, and their roles in mediating with groups like Hamas and the Taliban.

    All the countries that previously challenged Israel are now weakened and humbled by U.S. strategies and diplomacy. Egypt, home to the largest army in the Middle East and the leader of last century’s Arab movements against Israel, along with Libya, Iraq, and Syria – countries that once challenged Israel—have lost the leadership capable of making such decisions. They are experiencing severe economic decline and face significant domestic challenges. Now, it seems that the Islamic Republic of Iran is currently the only major power from the Muslim world still challenging Israel. However, Iran has also been economically weakened by strong U.S. sanctions and faces serious domestic issues. Iran has been stunned and humbled by Israel through severe attacks. While Iran has vowed revenge, it has not taken any significant actions that are visibly effective. Nonetheless, Iran has not completely withdrawn from its ideological commitment to opposing Israel, unlike other states. Iran continues to fund organizations fighting against Israel, and Qatar is also reported to be providing support. Despite these efforts, no one is currently able to effectively challenge Israel, highlighting the weakness of the Islamic world outside of its elaborate organizations.

    As Israel is not ready for a truce, it seems likely that Gaza will be systematically annexed by Israel. This outcome appears inevitable. The stance of Islamic countries, which avoids a regional war, may bring peace, but it is clear that the position of Muslim governments does not reflect the sentiment of their populations. This could lead to a revival of terrorist organizations like ISIS in the Islamic world, which would bring more challenges in the region.