Tag: Elections 2024-25

  • Finally, the Date Is Out for GE2025: Singaporeans Will Go to the Polls on May 3

    Finally, the Date Is Out for GE2025: Singaporeans Will Go to the Polls on May 3

    Rumors of an early election have swirled for months, but now it is official: Singapore’s General Election will take place six months ahead of schedule. On May 3, Singaporeans will head to the polls, marking a pivotal moment for Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who will lead his first election as both Prime Minister and secretary-general of the long-ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

    The announcement came on April 15, shortly after President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, acting on the Prime Minister’s counsel, dissolved Singapore’s 14th Parliament and issued the Writ of Election, setting the stage for a swift political season.

    Nomination Day will be April 23, giving candidates just nine days of campaigning before Cooling-off Day on May 2, a brief but intense window for any last-minute maneuvering.

    An Unusual Pressure on the PAP?

    The outcome of the upcoming election seems all but decided: the People’s Action Party (PAP), the dominant force in Singapore’s political landscape, is widely expected to secure another victory. Even the opposition is not naive enough to entertain any illusions of victory. For decades, Singapore’s elections have faced criticism for their structural favoring of the ruling PAP, which has been in power since the nation’s founding. However, this election feels interesting. Beneath the surface of what might seem like a familiar narrative, several key factors are making it an intriguing contest to watch.

    This election marks a pivotal moment for PAP’s new leadership under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the first leader outside the Lee family to assume the role. The votes cast will be crucial for Wong’s political future, as any decline in public support could prompt tough questions about his leadership and his reforms. As a result, this election serves as a critical test of Wong’s direction and his vision for Singapore. It’s clear that Wong and his team are working diligently to secure a decisive win.

    While the PAP continues to emphasize its central role in the nation’s prosperity, it also underscores the added significance of this election in ensuring Singapore’s long-term stability and success. In a social media post following the writ’s issuance, Prime Minister Wong noted that this election provides Singaporeans with the opportunity to choose leadership capable of guiding the country through an increasingly uncertain global landscape. He also acknowledged that the global conditions that have supported Singapore’s success in recent decades may no longer be reliable. With this in mind, he is sending a clear message to the public: it’s time to choose him and his party to navigate Singapore through these turbulent times.

    PAP to contest all the seats, opposition to focus on strongholds.

    Singapore’s 14th general election since independence will see the People’s Action Party (PAP) contest all 97 seats across 33 constituencies, including 18 group representation constituencies (GRCs) and 15 single-member constituencies. The ruling party is expected to face a challenge in every seat, fielding over 30 new candidates—the largest slate in recent years. The PAP is confronted by a growing opposition that has gained ground in recent elections, fueled by calls for greater political checks and a wider range of voices in Parliament. In 2020, despite securing 61.23% of the vote, the PAP lost some key seats to the Workers’ Party (WP), which allowed the WP to secure the position of Leader of the Opposition for Pritam Singh.

    The WP is targeting at least 30 seats, including Hougang, Aljunied, and Sengkang GRCs, while also contesting five additional constituencies, including the new Punggol GRC. The party’s election slogan, “Working for Singapore,” underscores its commitment to unity and its goal of achieving a “First World Parliament.”

    The Progress Singapore Party (PSP) plans to field candidates in at least five constituencies. Following the confirmation of the election timeline, party leader Leong Mun Wai announced that its candidate list will be revealed soon. The PSP’s A-team is expected to contest the newly reconfigured West Coast-Jurong West GRC, where, led by Tan Cheng Bock, the party nearly defeated the PAP in 2020, securing 48.32% of the vote.

    Meanwhile, smaller opposition parties have staked claims to contested constituencies, creating the potential for multi-cornered races unless they can reach a consensus soon, making the path smoother for the PAP.

    A lot of topics to discuss

    In recent years, key issues such as the cost of living, job security, and the affordability of public housing have dominated national conversations, and it will lead to campaigns too. Inflation reached a peak of 6.1 percent in 2022 but eased to 4.8 percent the following year, dropping further to 2.4 percent in 2024. But impacts are still there and concerns remain about whether external factors, like renewed U.S. tariffs, could lead to another round of global price hikes.

    Resident employment saw an increase in 2024, reversing the previous year’s decline. Yet, new university graduates faced more challenges in securing full-time employment, and retrenchments rose in the final quarter. In response to these job insecurities, significant investments have been made in the SkillsFuture movement to help workers adapt to evolving industry demands. Additionally, a new initiative has been launched to support individuals who have lost their jobs and are working to re-enter the workforce.

    After a pandemic-driven supply crunch, resale Housing Board flat prices soared, with more units crossing the million-dollar mark. However, efforts to increase supply and stabilize the market have led to early signs of moderation in both public and private housing prices in the first quarter of 2025.

    Political scandals affecting both major parties are also likely to have an impact on the election. These include two extramarital affairs, the arrest of former Cabinet Minister S. Iswaran following a Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau probe, and a trial involving Mr. Singh, who was charged with lying to a parliamentary committee. Iswaran pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 12 months in jail. Mr. Singh was found guilty after a 13-day trial and fined, though he is appealing his sentence, which does not affect his eligibility to run for election.

    It’s heating up!

    The election mood is palpable following the release of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee’s report. Political parties have begun introducing their potential candidates to the public, and the atmosphere is expected to heat up—alongside the tropical summer—in the days ahead.

    The PAP has started rolling out its candidates constituency by constituency and will continue in the coming days. The WP and PSP are expected to follow soon. Still, Nomination Day could bring last-minute surprises as parties finalize their slates.

    This year will also mark the return of physical rallies—banned during the 2020 election due to the COVID-19 pandemic—with full-fledged campaigning set to begin after nominations close on April 23.

    The arena is ready.

  • Wong Highlights Critical Choice for Singapore in Election

    Wong Highlights Critical Choice for Singapore in Election

    Singapore is getting ready for an important chapter in its politics, with its first prime minister outside the Lee family preparing for a general election. As leader of the People’s Action Party (PAP), Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is stepping into a charged electoral atmosphere, seeking to gain public support, reaffirm the PAP’s role in shaping Singapore, and emphasize the party’s importance in a changing regional landscape.

    Speaking on March 26, Wong stressed that the upcoming election is about more than just securing a strong mandate for the PAP. He highlighted the need for a united and resilient Singapore to navigate global uncertainties and ensure continued growth, underscoring the high stakes of this election.

    Once again, the PAP stands ready.

    Wong Raises Global Politics

    This time, Wong is addressing the changing regional political dynamics with his people, emphasizing the importance of navigating these shifts safely and highlighting how he and the PAP are crucial for this task. It appears he also aims to present himself as a more significant figure in regional politics to his own people, positioning himself as a leader capable of guiding both Singapore and the region safely.

    Prime Minister Wong spoke to Singapore reporters in Hanoi before returning home after a two-day visit to Vietnam, his first since becoming prime minister in May 2024. He mentioned that his introductory visits to various ASEAN countries – including Brunei, Malaysia, Laos, Indonesia, and Thailand – have strengthened his relationships with regional counterparts, affirmed Singapore’s partnerships with these key neighbors, and identified new areas for cooperation.

    Wong highlighted that the changes occurring in the world are clear to everyone, pointing out a profound shift in the global order. He noted that competition is intensifying, and trade barriers are becoming more prevalent. Additionally, he explained that great power rivalry is on the rise, and it increasingly feels as though countries are focusing inward, with stronger nations using aggression or coercion to pursue their interests at the expense of smaller nations.

    Nevertheless, Wong emphasized that if ASEAN nations unite as a collective, they would be much stronger and better able to stand their ground.

    PAP Refreshes

    The media conference sparked discussions about Singapore’s upcoming election, with Wong emphasizing the PAP’s commitment to strengthening the nation, maintaining regional stability, and securing Singapore’s place on the global stage amid growing challenges. He also reaffirmed his dedication to bringing fresh perspectives and added value to the party to ensure the country’s long-term success.

    When asked about his efforts to recruit new candidates for the PAP, Wong highlighted that during the party’s conference in November 2024, he reiterated his focus on leadership renewal. He stressed that revitalizing both the PAP and its leadership remains a top priority.

    Wong explained that he has devoted considerable time to this process over the past one or two years. While he acknowledged that he could have taken a more gradual approach and continued with the current team, he emphasized that without renewal, the long-term consequences would become apparent in the next 10 to 15 years. He cautioned that stagnation would not only affect the PAP but also impact Singapore and its people.

    He also spoke about his efforts to engage and persuade individuals to enter politics, expressing satisfaction that some, including public servants, have answered the call.

    PAP for Stability

    It is almost certain that the PAP will win, securing another term for Wong and maintaining Singapore’s current trajectory. The party assures stability, positioning itself as the force that will guide the nation through the geopolitical turbulence surrounding it. Wong’s message is clear—there is no need to seek alternatives when the PAP promises continuity and renewal. Supporting the PAP, he suggests, is synonymous with safeguarding Singapore’s future, ensuring both personal security and national stability. The underlying message is unmistakable: choose the PAP, or risk uncertainty and disruption.

  • Tajikistan’s Election Charade Cements One-Party Rule

    Tajikistan’s Election Charade Cements One-Party Rule

    Tajikistan, a republic in Central Asia, offers yet another case study in the art of electoral theater—an exercise in ritual rather than representation. Like many of its neighbors, it conducts elections not as a contest of ideas but as a carefully managed reaffirmation of the ruling party’s dominance.

    On March 2, the country staged yet another parliamentary vote, ostensibly to select representatives for the lower house. The result, of course, was never in question. International media paid little attention, having long dismissed Tajikistan’s elections as political formalities. And sure enough, as the Central Commission for Elections and Referendums dutifully announced its preliminary figures, the expected supermajority materialized, less a revelation than a reminder of how power is preserved in the region.

    The 2025 Elections

    Tajikistan is holding two elections within a single month, one for each house of parliament. On March 2, 2025, voters elected members of the Assembly of Representatives, the lower house responsible for direct representation. Later, on March 28, 2025, the National Assembly, the upper house, will be selected.

    The Assembly of Representatives, or Majlisi Namoyandagon, consists of 63 deputies serving five-year terms. Under Tajikistan’s electoral system, 41 members are elected through single-member districts, while the remaining 22 are chosen from party lists.

    As expected, the ruling People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan, which has long dominated the country’s political landscape, secured an overwhelming victory. It won 49 of the 63 seats, including 37 of the 41 constituency-based seats. Through the party-list system, it received 2.43 million votes—51.9 percent of the total—claiming 12 of the 22 seats allocated by proportional representation.

    The Agrarian Party of Tajikistan followed with 986,000 votes (21 percent), securing five seats through the party list system and a total of seven seats, including two won in single-member districts. The Party of Economic Reforms obtained three party-list seats with 595,000 votes (12.7 percent) and gained two additional constituency seats. The Democratic Party and the Socialist Party each received around 250,000 votes (5 percent), earning three seats apiece.

    Meanwhile, the Communist Party of Tajikistan, with just 89,000 votes (1.9 percent), failed to secure representation, as it fell short of the 5 percent threshold required for party-list allocation.

    A Sham election?

    A total of 3,500 polling stations were established across Tajikistan, with an additional 36 set up at the country’s diplomatic missions in 28 nations to accommodate citizens abroad. According to the Central Commission for Elections and Referendums (CCER), 4.7 million people—85.3 percent of the 5.5 million eligible voters—participated in the elections. This strikingly high turnout figure appears dubious, given the widespread political apathy in Tajikistan, the lack of significant electoral campaigning, and the timing of the vote during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which likely reduced voter turnout.

    The government declared the elections valid and successful. CCER Chairman Bakhtiyor Khudoyorzoda claimed they were conducted in a transparent and open manner, with free and alternative choices, and that most voters participated with a strong sense of civic responsibility. However, independent verification of the March 2 election results remains nearly impossible.

    Tajikistan remains one of the world’s most repressive and undemocratic states, having been under the control of the same leadership since 1992. Every presidential and parliamentary election has faced strong criticism over a lack of transparency and fairness. Election observation missions in the country have long followed a predictable pattern—reports note compliance with technical procedures while simultaneously highlighting the absence of genuine competition, ultimately offering recommendations for reform that the government has consistently ignored.

    This time, in addition to barring international election observers, the government denied accreditation to major foreign media outlets, including the BBC, further reinforcing doubts about the election’s legitimacy.

    The Mighty PDPT

    The People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) has been the country’s dominant and ruling party since 2000. Originally founded in 1994 by Abdulmajid Dostiev as the People’s Party of Tajikistan, it has been led by President Emomali Rahmon since April 1998. Rahmon has consistently secured more than 75 percent of the vote in presidential elections, while the PDPT has maintained a supermajority in parliament since 2005.

    The PDPT maintains close ties with foreign political parties, particularly Russia’s ruling party, United Russia. It follows a similar ideology of ultranationalism, statism, and authoritarianism, reinforcing Moscow’s influence in the region and preserving the so-called “Russosphere.“

    What the Opposition Says

    The five parties that contested the elections alongside the People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan served more as symbolic opposition than actual challengers. The true opposition to Dushanbe was excluded from the race, and its leaders—now largely in exile—have dismissed the March 2 elections as a sham.

    Sharofiddin Gadoev, chairman of the Amsterdam-based Movement for Reform and Development, challenged the official turnout figures, alleging that only 300,000 people actually voted. The leader of Group 24, an opposition movement outlawed in Tajikistan, also denounced the elections.

    Further tightening the regime’s grip is the long-expected transfer of power from 72-year-old President Emomali Rahmon to his son, Rustam, the mayor of Dushanbe and speaker of parliament. As in many former Soviet republics, the authoritarian playbook endures—only the façade has changed.

  • Narendra Modi Finally Got India’s Capital Territory

    Narendra Modi Finally Got India’s Capital Territory

    Delhi, the national capital territory of India, serves as the country’s administrative center, housing Parliament, ministries, the Supreme Court, and other key government institutions and tribunals. Unlike Indian states, it functions as a special administrative zone with limited governing authority, akin to Washington, D.C., in the United States. Despite its small size, Delhi wields significant political influence. Often called “Mini Hindustan” due to the diverse migration from across India, it remains a crucial battleground for political parties, with gaining power in Delhi considered a point of pride.

    For Narendra Modi and the BJP, securing power in Delhi has been a long-standing goal. Though the party briefly controlled the capital in the 1990s, it struggled to regain influence after Modi became prime minister in 2014. Despite its widespread electoral success across India, the BJP consistently lost Delhi’s assembly elections to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal. Originating from an anti-corruption movement, AAP positioned itself as a grassroots alternative to traditional politics, operating more as an activist-driven group than a conventional party. While some experts saw AAP’s rise as a potential third force in Indian politics, the party lost its important ground in this latest election.

    After years of setbacks, the BJP’s hard work finally paid off in the latest Delhi Assembly elections, which concluded on February 5th. This victory—Modi’s fourth attempt at capturing the capital—marks a significant political shift. For the first time in over a quarter-century, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken control of Delhi’s government. In the 2025 assembly elections, the BJP won 47 of the 70 seats, ousting the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had governed the capital since 2015. AAP secured just 22 seats. In a stunning upset, its leader and founder, Arvind Kejriwal, along with his deputy, Manish Sisodia, lost their seats despite the party’s strong appeal through welfare programs and its anti-corruption agenda. The Indian National Congress, which failed to win a single seat for the third consecutive election, faces serious questions about its future. Once a dominant force in the region, Congress ruled Delhi for nearly 15 years before Kejriwal’s rise. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), another former powerhouse, also suffered a crushing defeat.

    Waving party flags and holding up posters of Narendra Modi, BJP supporters chanted slogans and danced outside the party headquarters in the capital as the vote results started to come in, with most exit polls predicting a decisive win for the party. Addressing the crowd, Modi criticized the Aam Aadmi Party and Arvind Kejriwal for their actions, but reserved his sharpest words for the Indian National Congress, delivering a scathing critique of the opposition. Amit Shah, India’s influential home minister and senior BJP leader, emphasized that the victory represented the people’s rejection of deceit. He noted that the public could no longer be misled by falsehoods. Shah also stressed that under Modi’s leadership, the BJP would transform New Delhi into the world’s leading capital by fulfilling all its promises. He hailed the victory as a testament to the people’s faith in Prime Minister Modi’s vision for progress.

    The election result was a major boost for the BJP, especially after the party failed to secure a majority in last year’s national elections and had to rely on coalition partners to form the government. The BJP regained momentum by winning key state elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. In the lead-up to the election, Modi’s government implemented tax cuts for the salaried middle class, a vital voting bloc. Throughout the campaign, both Modi and Kejriwal promised reforms, such as overhauling government schools, providing free healthcare and electricity, and offering a monthly stipend of over 2,000 rupees ($25) to impoverished women—proposals that have become standard in Indian elections.

    The Delhi election signals important political shifts in India. Narendra Modi and the BJP are reaching new heights, extending their influence into states and territories once beyond their grasp. Modi is also attracting support from Muslim and Sikh communities, groups that were traditionally outside his base. Meanwhile, the opposition bloc, known as I.N.D.I.A., which includes the Indian National Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), is unraveling. Both parties failed to coordinate and strike agreements ahead of the Delhi election, leading to disappointing outcomes. AAP may distance itself from the alliance, as many parties within the bloc face similar struggles due to a lack of cohesion. Modi’s success is well-deserved, and the BJP is clearly flourishing. However, the opposition must reassess its strategy if it hopes to challenge Modi’s expanding dominance.

  • Singaporean Politics in 2024: Preparing for the Big Election

    Singaporean Politics in 2024: Preparing for the Big Election

    In 2024, Singaporean politics was shaped by a series of pivotal moments. A once-in-a-generation shift in leadership brought a new prime minister, while the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) underwent substantial reforms under fresh leadership. As next year’s general election approached, political campaigns began to take shape. The country also faced the verdicts of high-profile scandals, which tarnished its reputation. Amidst all this, prominent foreign leaders, including India’s formidable Prime Minister Narendra Modi, visited, adding Singapore to global geopolitical discussions.

    In May, Lawrence Wong was sworn in as Singapore’s prime minister, marking only the third leadership transition since the country gained independence in 1965. A former government economist, Wong succeeded Lee Hsien Loong, who stepped down after two decades in office. Lee’s resignation was historic, as it was the first time since independence that no member of the Lee family held the office or was in line to do so. Lee continues to serve in Wong’s cabinet as senior minister.

    On May 13, Wong unveiled his first Cabinet, with key portfolios largely unchanged, except for the appointment of Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong as deputy prime minister. Together with Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, DPM Gan is expected to provide stability during the initial transition and mentor younger office-holders, according to Wong.

    A more substantial Cabinet reshuffle is anticipated after the general election, as PM Wong has indicated plans to rotate younger 4G ministers into new portfolios to broaden their experience, assuming the PAP is re-elected. While the two deputy prime ministers are seasoned leaders, it remains unclear who PM Wong views as his key 4G lieutenants. However, recent internal PAP appointments offer some insight: Education Minister Chan Chun Sing and National Development Minister Desmond Lee retained their positions as assistant secretaries-general.

    In his first National Day Rally address, Wong announced a reset of policies, including the introduction of an unemployment payment scheme and an extension of state-sponsored parental leave by 10 weeks. Political observers previously suggested that the unemployment payout signaled a shift toward welfarism. 

    Lawrence Wong is actively campaigning for next year’s general election, scheduled for November. He has taken several steps to boost the popularity of his party, the People’s Action Party (PAP), which has been in power since Singapore’s founding, while also enhancing his own image by leveraging modern tools and methods. Although the ruling party faces challenges from the opposition, it understands the risks and is positioning itself for a refresh ahead of its 70th anniversary. On December 4, Lawrence Wong was elected secretary-general of the PAP by the party’s top leadership. Additionally, Mr. Chan was promoted from vice-chairman to chairman of the headquarters executive committee, a position formerly held by Prime Minister Wong.

    In 2024, high-profile criminal cases involving former transport minister S. Iswaran and Leader of the Opposition Pritam Singh captivated the attention of Singaporeans. Iswaran, 62, pleaded guilty to five charges on what was supposed to be the first day of his trial, avoiding what many had expected to be a prolonged legal battle over corruption charges. In October, the court sentenced him to 12 months in jail for four counts of accepting valuable items as a public servant and one count of obstructing justice. Following this, Prime Minister Wong reaffirmed the government’s zero-tolerance policy toward corruption. He emphasized that, despite the personal difficulty in acting against a colleague and friend, it was the government’s responsibility to maintain Singapore’s clean and corruption-free system.

    Just weeks later, Singh, 48, faced two charges of perjury related to his testimony before a parliamentary committee. Over 13 court days spanning five weeks, the trial examined Singh’s statements in December 2021 to the Committee of Privileges, which had been convened to investigate a lie told by former WP MP Raeesah Khan. The trial saw testimony from Khan, former WP members, and former WP secretary-general Low Thia Khiang, with tense exchanges between the prosecution and defense. The case has drawn attention to the opposition, particularly the inner workings of the Workers’ Party, as Singh is the Republic’s first Leader of the Opposition.

    Singapore continues to maintain a conflicting stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict by not recognizing Palestine as a state while advocating for its cause and supporting a two-state solution. In 2024, it repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire and the safe, unconditional release of all remaining hostages. In August, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan emphasized that Singapore must be prepared to call out violations of international law, breaches of the UN Charter, or actions that threaten fundamental principles. However, in June, three women faced public order charges for allegedly organizing a pro-Palestine procession near the Istana and soliciting online attendance. Despite numerous calls from leaders for recognition, Singapore has not officially recognized Palestine.

    Neither the PAP nor opposition parties are actively engaging with the ground, but potential candidates have already been spotted in several constituencies. Some level of horse-trading between opposition parties appears to have begun to avoid three-cornered contests, which have historically been seen as detrimental by splitting the opposition vote. Red Dot United (RDU) chief Ravi Philemon said that his party began walkabouts in Nee Soon GRC in August, after learning that the Progress Singapore Party was no longer active there. RDU is part of a four-party coalition with the National Solidarity Party, Singapore People’s Party, and the Singapore United Party. In 2020, most opposition parties had to broker bilateral pacts after a proposed coalition of seven opposition parties failed to materialize.

    The 2025 general election will be crucial for Singapore as it will test the latest generation of PAP leadership and highlight the growing strength of the opposition, shaping the future of Singapore’s politics. The shift toward a welfare state is expected in the coming years, with the opposition playing an important role in this evolving landscape. At the same time, the new U.S. administration under Trump may demand more pro-U.S. policies from the Singapore government, potentially destabilizing the country’s geopolitical balance.

  • How the BJP’s ‘One Nation, One Election’ Is Redefining Indian Democracy

    How the BJP’s ‘One Nation, One Election’ Is Redefining Indian Democracy

    From the United States to Japan, democracies everywhere contend with a common predicament: the staggering financial burden of elections. Governments allocate vast budgets to organize them, while political parties and candidates pour in even greater sums to secure victory. This flood of money—both aboveboard and concealed—not only fuels corruption but often forges troubling alliances between business tycoons and politicians, bound by the relentless demand for funds. Fair elections remain the cornerstone of democracy, but their escalating costs can feel like a silent affliction, gradually undermining the very principles they are designed to protect.

    In India, the world’s largest democracy, elections scale up into grand spectacles of participation and spending. With over a billion people involved, the process transcends politics, transforming into a sprawling festival of flags, rallies, sweets, and freebies. Spanning months, election seasons unfold in staggered phases, covering parliamentary, state, and local polls across 28 states and multiple union territories. The financial strain on the nation is immense, fueled not only by government and political party expenditures but also by the pervasive corruption and money laundering that frequently accompany the process.

    The relentless cycle of political campaigns, rife with financial and ethical challenges, undeniably hampers India’s economic momentum. Yet democracy, by its very nature, cannot exist without elections. To address this dilemma, the Indian government has put forth the contentious “One Nation, One Election” proposal—a bold attempt to streamline the electoral process and curb costs and corruption. But the question persists: will this sweeping reform resolve India’s electoral quandary, or will it usher in a host of new complications?

    An India Today report predicts that the cost of the 2024 elections could soar to a staggering 1.35 trillion rupees. While official figures remain unverified, experts believe the final cost will likely surpass this estimate. The Centre for Media Studies, a Delhi-based non-profit, revealed that India spent over 600 billion rupees on the 2019 general elections, making it the world’s most expensive at the time. Added to this are the billions spent on various state elections. Confronted with these enormous costs, the government has proposed a solution aimed at reducing financial strain: the merger of national and state elections, to be held once every five years. This forms the backbone of the “One Nation, One Election” initiative. The Indian government is considering the synchronization of all elections, whether within a single month or a set time frame, to ease the financial burden of repeated electoral cycles.

    Beyond financial savings, the government argues that the proposal would bring other benefits: by avoiding the disruptions caused by ongoing election seasons, governance could become more efficient, and politicians could focus on national issues rather than just campaigning. Additionally, the government believes it would also boost voter participation and encourage greater political engagement.

    For years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been a staunch advocate for the concept of “One Nation, One Election.” The party has long supported a vision of a strong central government over a decentralized federal system. But this idea has sparked fierce opposition, particularly from India’s regional parties and the Congress Party, the country’s historic political powerhouse.

    The Congress Party now opposes the “One Nation, One Election” proposal, despite having conducted unified elections from 1951 to 1967. In stark contrast to Modi’s vision of a centralized system, Congress seems fragmented and hesitant to endorse the initiative. Party leaders fear the proposal could bolster Modi’s position, using his national popularity to secure synchronized state and parliamentary elections, potentially weakening Congress’s foothold in state politics. Many regional parties share this concern, believing the plan would further undermine India’s federal structure. They worry that national issues would dominate in a unified election cycle, sidelining state-specific concerns and diminishing the influence of regional governments in the national conversation.

    With a five-year parliamentary term and the possibility of no elections in between, critics argue that such a system would free the ruling party from the democratic “Test” of frequent elections. This, they warn, could empower the government to push through unpopular policies—like fuel price hikes—without fear of electoral consequence.

    Though the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) still enjoys a commanding position, even with a two-thirds majority necessary to amend the constitution, its path to implementing “One Nation, One Election” faces obstacles. On Tuesday, India’s law minister, Arjun Ram Meghwal, introduced a bill in Parliament to establish the system, only for it to fail in a vote. In a notable twist, even BJP members—including a prominent union minister—abstained from voting. However, the government remains undeterred, planning to move the issue to a parliamentary committee for further deliberation. The committee will review a report from former President Ram Nath Kovind, who chaired a nine-member panel recommending simultaneous elections. Kovind described the proposal as a “Game Changer,” citing economists who believe the change could bolster India’s GDP by up to 1.5%.

    India, the world’s largest democracy, is perpetually in election season. With 28 states, eight union territories, and nearly a billion eligible voters, elections are an ever-present feature of the nation’s political landscape. Unifying all elections into one season may reduce the spectacle and vibrancy of the process, but it could ultimately strengthen India’s democracy by streamlining elections and curbing excessive spending. However, this shift risks eroding the federal nature of India’s constitution, potentially creating tension at the local level. The impact of the “One Nation, One Election” proposal could fundamentally alter Indian democracy, diminishing the role of federalism and state-level politics, leaving national parties and their agendas with dominant influence.

  • EVM Rigging or Directionlessness: What’s Troubling the Indian National Congress?

    EVM Rigging or Directionlessness: What’s Troubling the Indian National Congress?

    Six months ago, the Indian National Congress, often called Congress—the grand old party of Indian politics—found itself celebrating a rare achievement in the past decade. It wasn’t a return to power in New Delhi, but the party’s first success in ten years at securing the minimum number of seats needed to claim the position of Leader of the Opposition. This modest victory, celebrated as a triumph, underscored the dramatic decline of a party that once ruled India with commanding majorities.

    Since Narendra Modi and his BJP took power in 2014, the Congress party, often called the Gandhi dynasty party, has steadily declined. The party’s flaws became glaringly evident after it lost power, yet its leaders ignored them. Instead of introspecting, they focused on accusing the BJP of malpractice, alleging Election Commission bias, and claiming voting machine tampering. By failing to address internal shortcomings, they repeatedly lost elections at both national and local levels.

    The Indian National Congress, along with its regional allies, benefited from the anti-incumbency wave against the ruling party, which had been in power for the past decade, during the last parliamentary elections in June. They secured 99 out of 543 seats, earning the position of Leader of the Opposition and a cabinet rank However, shortly after, crucial state assembly elections—including those in Jammu and Kashmir and Maharashtra—took place. The results deeply disappointed Congress, revealing challenges that went beyond the BJP and Modi.

    In the state elections held after the parliamentary elections, surveys predicted a favorable outcome for Congress, but the party failed to translate this into seats. In Jammu and Kashmir, where the BJP lacks significant influence, Congress underperformed, losing six seats compared to the previous election, while its alliance partner made a remarkable jump from 15 to 47 seats. In Haryana, despite strong performance in the parliamentary elections and favorable survey predictions, Congress squandered the opportunity and lost to the BJP.

    In Jharkhand, the alliance partner JMM gained seats and formed the government, but Congress failed to improve its tally. In Maharashtra, India’s wealthiest state, where Congress led in the last parliamentary election, the BJP dominated the assembly elections. Even Congress’s alliance partners could not save the party there. After these defeats, Congress leaders intensified their accusations against the BJP, alleging election malpractice, including tampering with electronic voting machines, in an attempt to explain their losses in the state elections.

    The Election Commission, BJP, and even Congress’s alliance parties disagree with the claims. The Supreme Court of India has also confirmed that the process is safe, to the best of its knowledge. Interestingly, only the Indian National Congress suffered in the recent state elections, while all other major state parties, including those that opposed the BJP, benefitted. This situation is forcing Congress to reflect on itself and wake up to reality.

    Congress no longer has a clear political direction. Once the flag bearer of socialism in India, with cadres who upheld socialism and secularism, it has now lost its way. Its current politics revolves around worshipping the Gandhi family and courting Muslim votes. Congress has seen three generations of the Gandhi family hold the position of prime minister and head of government. But people have now decided that enough is enough. Making Rahul Gandhi the prime minister is not their responsibility, especially since he hasn’t proven himself capable, even in his own assembly seats. Narendra Modi has consistently upheld his image as a man of the common people and demonstrated his capability at various levels of administration, excelling as the chief minister of Gujarat. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi is unwilling to build his credentials from the ground up; instead, he directly targets the prime ministership, just like his predecessors. Modi has skillfully used this contrast to frame the election as a choice between the common man and the royal family.

    Congress lacks leadership at different levels. The party no longer has quality leaders because it has punished and sidelined anyone who posed a threat to the Nehru-Gandhi family’s dominance, shrinking into a group of worshippers of the Gandhi family who have no connection with the people. Meanwhile, the BJP is cultivating and grooming second and third-tier leaders.

    Congress’s poor election management remains a significant problem. In a diverse country like India, with various vote banks and a caste-driven system, effective election management is essential. The BJP excels in this aspect, designing strong campaigns and implementing strategies to secure victories. For instance, the BJP has managed to win in Muslim-majority seats, even though Muslims are not traditionally part of its vote bank. By using strategies to divide the Muslim community and consolidating the Hindu vote bank, the BJP has achieved success.

    In contrast, Congress believes that Muslims will consistently support them out of fear of the BJP and Narendra Modi. However, other parties are now vying for Muslim votes, causing a split in support. Meanwhile, Congress’s heavy focus on Muslim-centric policies has alienated Hindu voters, further eroding its support.

    It is clear that Congress is losing its base. Once firmly rooted in Indian soil, the party has seen its foundation overtaken by the Bharatiya Janata Party and local parties. Ten years out of power have made this shift easier. Today, elections have become a contest between the BJP and local parties, while Congress’s significance continues to diminish.

    In a democracy, a party must offer meaningful politics to the people, rather than simply blaming the ruling party or promising freebies. While this approach has worked in some areas, Congress cannot compete with the BJP in the long term without redefining its politics. Furthermore, whether Congress wins or loses, the absence of another truly national party that spans from north to south and east to west threatens Indian democracy. A parliament dominated by a single party could soon become a reality, and that would be the biggest disaster for the democracy of the Republic of India.

  • Hindutva Strengthens Its Hold in India’s Wealthiest State

    Hindutva Strengthens Its Hold in India’s Wealthiest State

    Maharashtra, the largest economy in India, the second most populous state, and the third largest by area, has chosen the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Hindutva alliance to form the government for another five years through a landslide victory in the legislative assembly election. The state is home to India’s business capital, Mumbai, and serves as a major hub for business in the country. It is also the largest contributor to India’s economy, accounting for 14% of the national nominal GDP. Maharashtra’s significance in India’s economy and politics cannot be overstated, as political parties rely heavily on funding from the state. This victory marks a significant boost for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP, following setbacks in the previous parliamentary and Jammu and Kashmir elections, and strengthens the party’s financial position as well.

    The Maharashtra Assembly election for the 15th Legislative Assembly took place on November 20, 2024, with voters selecting all 288 members. Voter turnout reached 66.05%, the highest since 1995. The election featured a contest between two major alliances, reminiscent of the previous Indian parliamentary election.The first alliance, the Hindutva Alliance named Mahayuti, includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (SS), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and several regional parties. This alliance, led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde of Shiv Sena, currently governs Maharashtra, with the BJP being the largest party within the coalition. The second alliance, the Secular Alliance named Maha Vikas Aghadi, consists of the Indian National Congress (INC), Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (SS-UBT), the Nationalist Congress Party Sharadchandra Pawar(NCP-SP), the Samajwadi Party, communist parties, and other regional parties. While both alliances represent a broad spectrum of political ideologies—Hindutva and secularism—members have come together primarily to form a government. During the campaigns and even after voting concluded, both alliances made extensive preparations, with Maharashtra’s political landscape known for practices such as horse trading and corruption.

    The results, announced on November 23, were absolutely stunning, with a massive win for the ruling Mahayuti alliance under the leadership of the BJP. To secure a majority in the 288-seat assembly, a party or alliance needs 145 seats. Mahayuti bagged 235 seats, with the BJP alone securing 132 seats. This marks the party’s biggest success in the state’s history and one of the greatest wins for any party in recent Maharashtra history. The victory rate is remarkable, as the BJP contested only 145 seats, according to the alliance’s agreement. With this strong mandate, the BJP can form a government independently, without relying on other major parties in the alliance. They only need the support of 13 more members to ensure stability, and they are adept at securing such deals. Shiv Sena secured 57 seats, and the NCP got 41. It seems likely that there will be negotiations between the parties, as seen in previous governments. Most probably, BJP will take the Chief Minister’s post, with Devendra Fadnavis expected to be the next Chief Minister of Maharashtra. 

    The collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance is surprising, given its strong performance in the six months leading up to the parliamentary elections. However, the alliance secured only 50 seats out of 288, falling far short of expectations. It cannot even claim the position of opposition leader, as no single party or alliance has the required number of seats to do so. The Indian National Congress (INC) won only 16 seats out of the 102 it contested, marking one of its poorest performances in Maharashtra, a state it once dominated. Shiv Sena (UBT) emerged as the largest party in the alliance with 20 seats, despite contesting 92. The strength of the NCP-SP fell to just 10 seats, even though they contested 86. The election results have cast doubt on the future of the MVA alliance, as its member parties—driven by differing interests—had united primarily to gain power in Maharashtra. Questions now surround the relevance of Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP-SP, as well as the political futures of their leaders, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.

    The Maharashtra election results will significantly impact national politics. They signal strong support for Modi and his Hindutva agenda, as Maharashtra’s BJP leaders and the likely Chief Minister are staunch advocates of both. This victory will also bolster Modi’s position in Parliament’s upper house, where members are proportionally elected from state assemblies. For the Indian National Congress, the results underscore their ongoing failure to connect with the electorate. Their lack of political direction has once again led to a disappointing collapse.

  • Sri Lanka: The New Communist Hotspot in Asia

    Sri Lanka: The New Communist Hotspot in Asia

    Sri Lanka, once on the brink of collapse, now finds hope in communism. Frustrated with conventional political parties, dynastic politics, and rampant corruption, the people have rallied behind the country’s communist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), and its alliance under the banner of the National People’s Power (NPP). Last month, voters elected Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the party leader and former revolutionary, as president. The snap parliamentary elections he called led to a resounding victory for the party, which secured nearly two-thirds of the seats in Parliament.

    This remarkable victory for the JVP marks a significant shift in Sri Lanka’s political landscape, driven by widespread dissatisfaction with previous governments. Sri Lanka’s newly elected communist government now inspires communist parties across the region, who view it as a model for achieving their own political ambitions.

    However, this transformation has alarmed democracy advocates. In a small, politically volatile nation, many fear that Sri Lanka could transition into a one-party communist state, similar to China or Vietnam. The rise of a communist government in South Asia also promises to reshape regional politics, potentially altering the balance of power.

    The election for the 17th Parliament of Sri Lanka, held on November 14, 2024, mirrored the presidential election from two months earlier, but with an even more decisive victory for President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his communist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, now led by Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya. The National People’s Power (NPP) emerged as the largest group in Parliament, securing 61.65% of the popular vote and winning a supermajority with 159 seats out of the total 225. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) became the main opposition, capturing only 17.66% of the vote and a reduced total of 40 seats.

    Additionally, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi won 8 seats, the New Democratic Front secured 5 seats, and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, the winner of the previous election, fell to just 3 seats—a sharp decline from the 145 seats they had secured in the last election. This outcome reflected public dissatisfaction with the ousted leader Mahinda Rajapaksa and his political dynasty. The NPP’s 159 seats marked a historic achievement, surpassing all other Sri Lankan political parties and securing the second-highest proportion of seats in the nation’s history. The NPP won every district except Batticaloa. This was also the first election since 1977 in which a single party achieved a supermajority, and the first time a non-Tamil political party won the former separatist Jaffna District. The results delivered a clear verdict on how the 2022 Sri Lankan political crisis reshaped the country’s political landscape, as ultra-nationalism gave way to communism, marking a dramatic shift from global trends, or something akin to British politics.

    Sri Lanka’s victory marks the second instance of a fully communist government in South Asia without any coalition with centrist parties, following Nepal. This achievement, in a region once dominated by nationalism, is a significant milestone for communism as a global movement seeking to expand its influence. South Asia, one of the most populous regions in the world, has not embraced communism despite being fertile ground for it. Many hope that the communist victory in Sri Lanka will inspire communist factions in other South Asian countries.

    In India, once a communist hotspot, the movement now has very low or negligible representation in parliament, holding only a small state. Beyond that, communists have no significant role in Indian politics. Nepal, despite having a communist president and prime minister in the past, now experiences large splits within coalitions with centrist parties, holding little power compared to before. While many expected communism to fade from the region, Sri Lanka offers new hope. The country is already deeply tied to China through massive economic debt, making it easier for China to operate and spread communism from this Indian Ocean island, a gateway to the Indian subcontinent.

    Reports indicate that Indian communists are already celebrating this victory as they struggle for survival, particularly in Kerala, the only Indian state still governed by communists. The triumph of communism over nationalism is something they have long desired. In Nepal, the communist party is gaining ground as people grow frustrated with frequent changes in government. In other religiously dominated countries in the region, like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Maldives, communist influence remains weak. However, in Bangladesh, there have been reports of communist-linked parties hoping for a communist government. As communism is a pan-nationalist ideology, Sri Lanka’s victory could inspire and support other communist movements across the region.

    While many believe a communist Sri Lanka could emerge through the systematic occupation that communism deploys, others question how long the island can remain united, given its ethnic and cultural divisions and the fact that the population is only united by their hatred of the previous government. The United States will likely oppose the growth of communism, particularly with the Trump administration in charge. The country is highly volatile, and easily influenceable by the U.S., as its people are both educated and, at the same time, hopeless. India, too, would not want a communist government that could align closely with China. They will probably attempt some form of cultural uprising. But for now, it is clear: Sri Lanka is red, and communism has once again opened a door to the Indian subcontinent.

  • How Would Trump’s Second Term Affect Asia?

    How Would Trump’s Second Term Affect Asia?

    Donald Trump has been confirmed as the next U.S. president, defeating incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. As the 47th president, he will take office next year, though his return to the post after a defeat is already resonating worldwide. The U.S. president’s role extends beyond national borders, shaping global direction and policy. Asia, the world’s focal point this century, is preparing for Trump’s return, and he is likely to focus more on the region in his second term compared to his predecessors, who primarily concentrated on Europe and Latin America.

    In his last term, which ended four years ago, Trump clearly demonstrated his approach as a businessman-turned-politician. While the Biden administration has since reshaped the global landscape, Trump is expected to resume his previous style, promoting closer ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, taming Russia and Iran, shifting U.S. alliances from Pakistan toward India, challenging China, and reinforcing U.S. relations with East Asia.

    The war-ridden Middle East anticipates Trump’s immediate attention. Many Arab Americans expressed anger over the Democratic Party’s failure to address regional issues, which contributed to their loss. Trump is expected to be more reactive in the region than Biden. He has been a staunch supporter of Israel and has built strong ties with Israel and its Prime Minister Netanyahu, while Democrats, especially Kamala Harris, have advocated for a two-state solution and support for Palestine. Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the U.S. embassy there, and encouraged allies to follow suit. During his previous tenure, he also proposed a peace plan that, while heavily favoring Israel, was still somewhat workable.

    Trump’s pro-Israel approach led many to fear it would deteriorate relations with Muslim states. However, while openly supporting Israel, he also established a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia and the Crown Prince, despite heavy criticism from human rights watchdogs and significant opposition both within the U.S. and abroad. His efforts resulted in closer ties between several Muslim nations and Israel, with Saudi Arabia nearly formalizing relations. Some Republicans even nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize for these actions, and many believe Saudi Arabia would have formalized relations with Israel had Trump won a second term four years before instead of Biden.

    During Biden’s term, Saudi Arabia became increasingly distant and pursued other alliances, including with Russia. Many believe Trump can fix this and could persuade Netanyahu to negotiate a ceasefire. However, regarding Iran, Trump is expected to maintain a hardline stance against the regime, and a closer U.S.-Israel alignment could further pressure Iran, potentially fueling internal unrest. Conflicts in Syria and Iraq will likely persist, with additional U.S. support expected for the Kurds. Turkey, under Erdogan’s vision of Ottoman revival, may continue a balanced approach rather than adopting a more assertive role.

    Central Asia and Russia are also likely to remain in Trump’s focus. Given his alleged close ties with Putin, many believe he may work to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. As a seasoned negotiator, Trump might aim to broker an agreement between both sides. During his campaign, Trump acknowledged American frustration over spending on Ukraine, suggesting a resolution may be near. In exchange for potential cooperation with Russia, Trump might reduce U.S. involvement in Russia’s sphere of influence in Central Asia, an area where Biden sought to weaken Moscow’s control.

    In South Asia, Trump’s interest in the Indian market was evident during his previous term. He cultivated a strong relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and both view each other as close allies. However, as nationalists, they often balance competing interests. Nonetheless, the mutual reliance between the U.S. and India—both in terms of American production needs and the Indian market, and vice versa—suggests that major deals may soon follow. Despite her Indian heritage, Kamala Harris is often seen by Indian media as opposing Modi due to her stance on certain policies. It was also clear that Indian media endorsed Trump during the campaigns. This alignment creates room for more significant developments between the U.S. and India, while Islamic nations in the region, like Pakistan and Bangladesh, may face challenges due to Trump’s pro-India and pro-Hindu stance.

    In East Asia, Trump’s relationship with China is likely to worsen as he opposes any economic growth in China that might threaten U.S. market dominance. Trump initiated the ongoing trade wars, and further actions against Chinese products are expected. His push to revitalize American manufacturing will likely intensify pressure on China. By framing China as an adversary, Trump’s strategy may drive more countries away from China’s business, which could significantly impact China and escalate tensions between the U.S. and China. This economic friction may heighten tensions in the South China Sea, especially if China loses market influence.

    Trump’s search for alternatives to China could benefit Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, Indonesia, and possibly Malaysia. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will likely draw closer to the U.S., as Trump seeks to strengthen alliances to counter China. His previous engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also showcased his diplomatic flexibility.

    Asia is sure to see more eventful days during Trump’s second term. Israel and Russia, both seeking an end to ongoing conflicts, appear uncertain about how to resolve them and may be hoping for an intervention. Donald Trump is likely to step in, aiming to position himself as a hero. Optimists believe a resolution could happen within months, as he has discussed these issues multiple times and has strong relationships with key parties, along with a desire to save American money.

    However, while Trump may strengthen some alliances, many believe his approach could strain relationships with other regional actors, such as Iran, China and  nuclear-armed Pakistan. As tensions between the U.S. and China continue, there is a risk of increased instability in the eastern region. Yet, with Trump’s focus on economic growth and business, it’s expected that global attention will shift back to economic matters, setting aside other issues currently in the spotlight.