Tag: Elections 2024-25

  • Jammu and Kashmir Set to Elect Assembly After 10 Years

    Jammu and Kashmir Set to Elect Assembly After 10 Years

    Jammu and Kashmir, one of three Muslim-majority union territories in India along with Lakshadweep and Ladakh, has long been a focus of global interest. Both Pakistan and China, along with several Western diplomats, have expressed a desire to annex the territory to Pakistan, and Pakistan has conducted several wars and militant operations to achieve this goal. The global Muslim population has repeatedly raised the Kashmir issue, emphasizing Muslim solidarity worldwide and accusing the Indian government of suppressing Islamic rights. Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, has taken a particular interest in the region and has increased central government control over Kashmir during his tenure. Jammu and Kashmir, which was previously granted special constitutional status and a separate constitution with elements such as Sharia law and its own flag, removed these privileges under Modi’s government. The dissolution of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly and the removal of Article 370 from the Indian Constitution by parliament ended the region’s special status. Elections in the union territory are now scheduled to take place in four stages from September to October, marking the first time since 2014. Given the region’s significant Islamist extremist threats, the election poses a challenge for India, as  terrorists may threaten potential voters.

    Jammu and Kashmir, a former state and now a union territory, has deep historical ties with India and was part of various great kingdoms that ruled the Indian subcontinent. Over the years, it became a Muslim-majority region, but it still has a significant Hindu, Sikh, and Buddhist population that strongly supports Indian rule, along with Shia and Ahmadiyya communities. The region is now divided into four parts: the Kashmir Valley, which has a Sunni majority and faces the most extremist threats to elections; Jammu, which has a considerable Sikh and Hindu population; the territory under Pakistan’s control, annexed during the 1950s war – India does not recognize this occupation, and seats for it remain vacant in the assembly; and Ladakh, which was once part of Jammu and Kashmir but is now a separate union territory.

    The Jammu and Kashmir union territory elections are set to occur in three phases: Phase I on 18 September 2024, Phase II on 25 September 2024, and Phase III on 1 October 2024. Results will be announced on 4 October 2024. These elections will choose the 90 members of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. Four major political parties, along with several smaller contenders, are vying for the assembly seats.

    In the complex political landscape of Jammu, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which holds the reins of power in India, stands out as the preeminent force. In the most recent assembly elections, the BJP clinched 25 of the 87 available seats, reinforcing its dominance. The party further solidified its position by capturing two of the five Lok Sabha constituencies in the recent general election, underscoring its significant influence in the region. The BJP is focusing on major infrastructure projects funded by the central government, including new railway lines, roads, hospitals, and other developments that were previously unavailable in the region. They are appealing to voters who felt disadvantaged under the previous special constitutional status, which was accused of favoring certain families and religious groups, and they are capitalizing on the rise of nationalism in the state. However, as the party lacks strong support in Muslim-majority areas, the BJP has been accused of backing smaller pro-Muslim parties in certain regions. The BJP aims to surpass the 45-seat mark for a majority in the 90-member assembly, with some seats expected to come from these smaller parties.

    The Indian National Congress, the main opposition party in the Indian parliament, is contesting the election in alliance with the region’s largest state-level party, the National Conference, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). This alliance has a strong presence in both the Kashmir Valley and Jammu and is demanding the restoration of statehood and special status for the region. In the last election, all parties in this alliance contested individually, collectively winning 28 seats, which was more than the BJP’s tally. Another significant party is the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which secured the most seats in the last assembly election with 28 seats. They are expected to contest individually this time. Other national parties, including the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), are also participating in this election, along with numerous state parties and independent candidates, who also play a crucial role in forming the government in the state.

    The upcoming election is a crucial juncture for the state. If the BJP wins, they will grant statehood but not restore special status. If the BJP loses, it is likely that other parties will join forces to demand special status. Additionally, if the BJP forms a  coalition government, there might be pressure to address this demand. The election will also attract international attention, especially from Pakistan. As Jammu and Kashmir moves towards greater democracy and development, it could impact the already troubled state of Pakistan and its part of Kashmir, leading to serious impact in the region. Therefore, the assembly election of Jammu and Kashmir is not only important for the union territory but also for the entire South Asia.

  • Mongolia Chooses Ruling Party Despite Dire Economic Realities

    Mongolia Chooses Ruling Party Despite Dire Economic Realities

    Even though there are many factors against voting for the ruling party and prime minister, Mongolia allowed the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) and Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene to continue. Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene declared an early victory, but the parliamentary majority of the ruling party significantly diminished, reflecting deepening public anger over corruption and the state of the economy. An interesting aspect of the election result is that the opposition gained ground and more parties gained representation in parliament. Regardless of the outcome, it should be considered as a victory for Mongolian democracy, which conducted a democratic election while situated between highly authoritarian Russia and China. Additionally, millions of Mongolians turned out to elect 126 members of the State Great Khural, the country’s unicameral parliament.

    According to the latest reports from the Mongolia’s General Election Commission, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) has secured a majority with 68 seats, four more than needed, and garnered 35.01% of the votes. This marks a significant drop from their 45% in the 2020 election, where they held 62 out of 76 seats. The main opposition Democratic Party, led by Luvsannyamyn Gantömör, won 42 seats and 30% of the votes, a notable increase from their 11 seats and 24% previously. This represents a win for the opposition as well. The minor anti-corruption HUN party secured eight seats and 10% of the votes, while smaller parties collectively won eight seats. These results, the first under a new electoral system where Mongolians vote for both proportional lists and individual representatives in large districts, mean that the MPP will govern with a significantly reduced majority. The new parliament will see the MPP holding 54% of the seats, compared to around 80% in 2020.

    The MPP, successor to Mongolia’s communist party that held power for almost 70 years, remains popular, especially among rural, conservative, and older voters, maintaining a vast, nationwide campaign infrastructure. Many critics liken the country to other post-Soviet Union nations in the region with authoritarian tendencies influenced by Russia and China. Therefore, they believe the authorities will try to consolidate power to maintain control. Analysts had anticipated the MPP to maintain the majority it has held since 2016 and govern for another four years. They attribute much of the party’s success to a coal mining boom that fueled double-digit growth, improved standards of living, and a formidable party machine. However, the campaign was overshadowed by widespread public frustration over endemic corruption, high living costs, and limited opportunities for the young majority. There is also a prevalent belief that profits from the coal mining boom are hoarded by a wealthy elite, leading to frequent protests. The election results reflect these sentiments.

    According to Bayarlkhagva Munkhnaran, an analyst and former official with the National Security Council of Mongolia, “This election result definitely represents a rebuke to the MPP and its leadership”. He added that winning 68 seats is “Barely a face-saver, and any subsequent government will be weak but much more democratic”. Despite the MPP’s victory in the election, many consider it a loss for the party within the framework of Mongolian politics. This sentiment was noted by Democratic Party leader Gantumur Luvsannyam, who stated, “Through this election, people have evaluated the past policy mistakes of the ruling party”.

    It was the first election following an important constitutional change and new electoral law. On Friday, people across the vast, sparsely populated nation of 3.4 million voted. Regardless of the outcome, the election is a win for democracy, especially considering the challenges it faces due to its location between authoritarian countries. The streets of Ulaanbaatar, home to almost half of Mongolia’s population, were adorned with colorful campaign posters featuring candidates across the political spectrum, including populist businessmen, nationalists, environmentalists, and socialists, a rarity in the region. The Prime Minister upheld democracy, thanking even those who did not vote for his party. He remarked that for the first time, five to six parties had been elected to parliament, marking a “New page” in Mongolian democracy. He added, “The essence of democracy lies in having diverse and contrasting opinions. Your criticisms will influence our actions”.

  • Tokyo Election Set Up with Women Candidates in the Spotlight

    Tokyo Election Set Up with Women Candidates in the Spotlight

    Tokyo, the capital of Japan, is not just another Asian city; it’s the most populous city in the world, with numerous institutes that influence the entire Asian economy. The city extends into a vast metropolis or prefecture, comprising around 40 million people who live densely, making it a city with a high cost of living and high rental rates, but a GDP that almost rivals that of the Netherlands. Tokyo is setting off the governor election on July 7, and campaigns kicked off last week. Interestingly, two women are the leading candidates in the upcoming Tokyo election, representing major parties in a highly male-dominated political landscape. The Tokyo election of 2024 is led by the incumbent Yuriko Koike, who has been in charge since 2016 and represents the governing conservative but named Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has presented Renho Murata as the challenger. The Tokyo election is expected to be a proxy war between the country’s two main political parties.

    Koike, 71, has an impressive record in administration, guiding the city through the most challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic. The city, severely hit by the pandemic, implemented lockdowns that included tight controls. Interestingly, she conducted the Summer Olympics during this challenging time. The prestigious Tokyo Olympics 2021 was a great success, even though she faced a lot of opposition to conducting the Olympics under such challenging conditions. Considering the obstacles faced, the Tokyo Olympics was one of the most successful events in recent years. These achievements make Koike, a former TV anchor first elected to the lower house of parliament in 1993, the frontrunner in the upcoming Tokyo election. She now owns her party, Tomin First, though receives strong support from the LDP, as well as from parties like Komeito and the Democratic Party for the People. There are no major allegations against her, despite a funding scandal involving her party and a dispute over her academic qualifications.

    Renho, the main challenger of Koike, represents center-left politics and, with the support of the opposition party, the CDP, is expected to give a tough fight to Koike in the Tokyo election. Renho, born to a Japanese mother and Taiwanese father, was also a television personality like Koike and a former swimsuit model. She entered politics as an upper house member in 2004 and became the first female leader of Japan’s biggest opposition party, the CDP, in 2016. She contested the presidential election as an independent, though with the support of the CDP and the Japanese Communist Party. Renho sparked a minor controversy when she became opposition leader in 2016 by revealing that she still held dual Japanese and Taiwanese nationality, despite earlier insisting that she had become a naturalized Japanese citizen in her teens. Japanese law requires individuals with dual nationality to choose one before they turn 22. Renho later renounced her Taiwanese citizenship.

    The demographic crisis is the biggest topic in the Tokyo election as well as in Japanese politics. Lowering fertility rates and connected issues, ranging from work-life balance to economic decline, have become heated topics in the Tokyo election. Nationwide, the fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, stands at 1.2 – significantly below the 2.07 needed to maintain a stable population. The situation in Tokyo is even more urgent, with its birth rate at 0.99, the lowest among Japan’s 47 prefectures. The frontrunners have clashed over their plans to raise the birth rate, with Koike promising lower rents for families and free daycare for married couples first children. Renho has said she would pressure companies to improve their employees work-life balance. She aims to make life in Tokyo more appealing and turn it into a destination for Japan’s young people seeking their ideal lifestyle. However, many people are demanding a clear blueprint for tackling these challenges before the July 7 vote.

    The 2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election will feature a total of 56 candidates from across the political spectrum. The previous election, held on July 5, 2020, resulted in the incumbent Yuriko Koike being re-elected for a second term in a landslide, increasing her share of the vote to 59.7%. This result was widely viewed as an endorsement of her handling of Tokyo’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many believe that the 2020 election result was influenced by the pandemic situation and that Koike may not be able to repeat her victory this time. Additionally, the current political climate in the country is not favorable for the LDP. However, The 2024 election, led by two female candidates, is expected to draw significant interest not only from Japan but also from around the world.

  • What’s Happening Between Modi and the RSS?

    What’s Happening Between Modi and the RSS?

    India’s general election is completed, and Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)  have formed a government. However, the result is still causing wonder among political analysts in India. Everyone predicted a third Modi government, but no one expected BJP to fall below the majority. When we analyze the election results in India, we can understand that there was no significant anti-incumbency and the opposition was not strong enough to challenge Modi. Yet, Modi did not achieve a single-handed majority like his previous two terms. Indian media have been searching for reasons from the day of vote counting, and one interesting factor they found is that the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), the parent Hindu nationalist organization of BJP, did not cooperate with BJP as they did in previous terms. This is evident from the dipping vote percentages, the loss of votes in strongholds, and the failure of BJP candidates who were selected over RSS nominees.

    Narendra Modi entered the public space as an ordinary worker of the RSS, and the RSS supported him in attaining all the positions he got in his political career. He still works with the RSS’s agendas, no doubt about it. However, a strong, disciplined organization will never like individuals who grow larger than the organization itself. Over the last two terms, Modi has grown larger than the RSS, and of course, larger than the BJP. The last government was criticized for not being an NDA (Alliance led by BJP) government or a BJP government, but a Modi government. All decisions were taken single-handedly by Modi and his team. Modi was raised as an idol, and all the campaigns for the last general election were in the name of Modi, like “Modi ki Guarantee”, Some people started chanting his name with slogans for Hindu gods, like “Har Har Modi” instead of “Har Har Mahadev”, which definitely hurts a Hindu organization. This idolization became more evident when Modi took the priest role in the inauguration of the Ayodhya temple, the biggest election topic raised by the BJP. Modi himself even announced during the campaign that he is a representative of God. Further worsening the situation, during the campaign, the BJP chief and Modi supporter, JP Nadda, publicly stated that the BJP had grown to a level where they did not need assistance from the RSS. This was definitely a statement that could hurt RSS associates, who were already angry that Modi did not do enough with the RSS’s agendas, despite having a superior majority in Parliament. This resulted in dipping vote percentages and losses in the BJP’s secure seats.

    Many believe the tiff between BJP and RSS is a result of ego clashes among leaders of both organizations. Despite RSS maintaining calm during the election period and avoiding statements, after the results, they criticized the bitter campaigning by both the ruling party and the opposition in the recent general election. In a rare public comment on politics, though it included criticism of the opposition, it was clear the target was BJP. Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), also demanded urgent attention to be given to the strife-torn remote state of Manipur, a security failure during Modi’s rule that has often been reported as neglect by Modi. In his first comments after the election results last week, Bhagwat said the election should be viewed as a competition and not a war, and criticized parties for comments that stoked religious divisions. He stated on Monday in Nagpur that the kind of statements made in campaigns, the manner in which both sides criticized each other, and the lack of concern for social divisions resulting from their actions raised serious concerns about the country’s operation. “The opposition is not an opponent”, he said, in what appeared to be a dig at the BJP, which sharply criticized the opposition and even called “Congress Mukt Bharat ”, which means  the washing out of the main opposition party from Indian Politics. 

    Analysts believe that within BJP, a group has developed under the leadership of Modi and Shah, which is cornering the RSS leadership. Interestingly, RSS has not maintained the same level of firmness against the Indian National Congress in previous times. Therefore, if the relationship between RSS and BJP worsens, it will have a seismic impact on Indian politics, although the likelihood of this happening is low. Both parties know they need each other. Even though Modi garners neutral votes, there are not many other leaders in BJP who can cultivate the same popularity among the common people. Considering this is Modi’s last term according to BJP’s age limit program, BJP cannot sustain its machinery and leadership without RSS. Possibly, the successor of Modi will be decided by RSS. For RSS, if BJP is not in power, they will face challenges similar to those during the Indian National Congress’s time. Therefore, both RSS and BJP need each other, and despite any discontent between leaders, it is believed, they will ultimately cooperate with each other.

  • Third Modi Government Inaugurated With a Multitude of Ministers

    Third Modi Government Inaugurated With a Multitude of Ministers

    Narendra Modi commenced his third term in the Prime Minister’s office after completing two full terms, marking him as the first prime minister to achieve this since Jawaharlal Nehru, the founding Prime Minister of the Republic. The oath ceremony took place at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, the President’s Palace, on the evening of June 9th. The Prime Ministers and Presidents of neighboring countries, including the Maldives President who has taken an anti-India stance, attended the ceremony. A large crowd, including politicians from different parties, movie stars, and businesspeople, witnessed the oath ceremony. An interesting fact is the inclusion of a mammoth 71 ministers in the third Modi government, which has many members from parties allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party. It’s clear that the third term will be more of an NDA (National Democratic Alliance) government, unlike the previous BJP-dominated NDA governments, where the BJP single-handedly had the majority.

    Modi’s new government retained key figures from the last government. Members from almost every alliance party, as well as BJP leaders from states where elections are scheduled in the upcoming months, were included. The ministries for senior ministers haven’t changed. Rajnath Singh, senior and former Home Minister, took the oath after Modi and is expected to be the second person in Modi’s ministry, continuing in the Defense Ministry.

    Modi’s right-hand man Amit Shah, the RSS (the BJP’s parental organization) nominee Nitin Gadkari, the female face of Modi’s government Nirmala Sitharaman, and bureaucrat-turned-politician Subramanian Jaishankar are all included in the new ministry with the same roles they held in the last Modi government. Other important inclusions are Shivraj Singh Chauhan, who ruled the state of Madhya Pradesh for 15 years and achieved repeated victories but was forced out from the role of Chief Minister; he is now included in Modi’s ministry. The leader, who was once expected to become Prime Minister, was awarded the important Agriculture Ministry. Other former Chief Ministers who were removed from power by the BJP Central body, like Manohar Lal Khattar from Haryana and Sarbananda Sonowal from Assam, are also included in the Cabinet. Former Chief Ministers from alliance parties, such as HD Kumaraswamy from Karnataka and Jitan Ram Manjhi from Bihar, have been awarded cabinet ranks. Another important inclusion is the current BJP President JP Nadda, who is expected to step down from his post and has been given the Health Ministry.

    Modi’s third government ensures participation from almost all states. Out of the 71 total ministers, 30 will be in cabinet rank and 41 will be Ministers of State (MoS), with 5 of those having independent charges. Among the 72 ministers, 7 will be women. As in previous terms, women are underrepresented. Modi has ensured representation of almost all major communities, including Dalits, Brahmins, Christians, Sikhs, etc., but there are no Muslims.

    Despite significant pressure from major alliance parties, the BJP has retained all important ministries. However, they were forced to scrap the decision to reduce the number of ministries and cut costs. It is expected that, as in the previous Modi government, there will be a reshuffle before state assembly elections, including ministers from the states approaching elections. So far, apart from the NCP, which was not given cabinet rank ministers, there have been no significant objections, suggesting that Modi and his team have successfully managed the demands of their alliance partners.

    Modi’s third term will be interesting as they cannot push the Hindu nationalist agendas as aggressively as in the previous term, but it’s hard to imagine a Modi rule without promoting Hindu agendas. For the most part, India’s next five years will be governed under a common minimum program, with consultation from all parties in the NDA. Political observers are predicting more horse-trading of MPs to increase the number of BJP MPs. Some believe that if Modi can’t rule independently, he might resign, and there could be another prime minister within these five years. However, it is certain that Modi will not be awarded another term because he will exceed the age limit set by the BJP. As all the potential successors, except Yogi Adityanath, are in the cabinet, the performance of these ministers will be closely monitored. In short, an important five years is impending for Indian politics.

  • Singapore to Conduct General Election Earlier?

    Singapore to Conduct General Election Earlier?

    While several months remain before the general election in Singapore, rumors are circulating that the election might be conducted earlier than currently expected. Updates from the Singapore Elections Department and the increased activity of political parties have led analysts to suggest that a general election could be called as early as September. This would be just four months after Singapore’s rare and only third leadership transition, during which Lawrence Wong succeeded Lee Hsien Loong as Prime Minister. This election will be a significant test for Wong as he faces public scrutiny for the first time in this role.

    By November 23, 2025, Singapore must hold a general election to establish the composition of its fifteenth Parliament. The upcoming general election will be the fourteenth since independence. Although there are several months remaining before the election and the completion of the current Parliament’s five-year term, the actions of political parties and other significant entities are causing analysts to speculate. Political parties have been ramping up activities both publicly and behind the scenes, even though the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee, which must be convened before a general election, has not yet been formed. In addition to the movements of political parties, the Elections Department has updated balloting processes and voter rolls, fueling speculation about an impending election. The department announced several updates to the election process, including the appointment of a returning officer, a public official appointed by the prime minister, who has the authority to direct individuals and social media firms to remove online election advertising that may breach rules. 

    All parties, including the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), have entered into an election mood. The People’s Action Party secured a significant victory in the 2020 general election, which was its most challenging contest since independence. The PAP won a majority of seats, losing only three electoral divisions, and has maintained its grip on power since the country’s independence. PAP has spent the past six months collecting feedback from volunteers through a “Refresh PAP” initiative, spearheaded by newly minted Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. Wong is expected to address PAP Members of Parliament and supporters on June 8 about the feedback from the initiative and how the PAP plans to incorporate it. The PAP aims to increase efforts to build stronger connections with Singaporeans and retain their confidence and trust. Wong has called for more diversity among newcomers and improvements in communication channels. The engagement sessions started early this year, with several talks posted on social media by party members using the hashtag #RefreshPAP. The PAP is modifying its election strategies. With a new campaign, new strategies, and a new Prime Minister, the PAP is looking for a fresh start. 

    Meanwhile, the opposition parties are also preparing for the election, anticipating a possible early call. The Workers’ Party is continuing its efforts to maintain its strongholds in Hougang and Aljunied, as well as in other areas it contested in the 2020 general election, such as Tampines, East Coast, and Marine Parade. They are aiming for a strong performance in the Jalan Besar group constituency as well. Although the party did not contest Jalan Besar in 2020, it did so in the 2015 election. Another important opposition party, the Progress Singapore Party, with Secretary-General Hazel Poa stating that her party, which currently holds two non-constituency MP seats, is prepared for the election to be called at any time. Non-constituency MP seats are awarded to opposition parties whose candidates perform best without winning a seat in an election. Poa stated that since last month, her party has been conducting two to four walkabouts and door-to-door visits every weekend.

    Even Though the election department did not know when the election would be held but emphasized that it must be ready whenever the vote was called. In March, the department responded to media queries by stating that about 50,000 public servants were being appointed as election officials, with training set to begin in April. Singapore has a history of calling early elections; for instance, in 2015, then-Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong informed Parliament on July 13 that the committee had been formed two months earlier. The committee’s report was subsequently submitted on July 21, and the election was called on August 25. The process could even be expedited with advancements in technology. In 1991, the report was completed on August 8, and Parliament was dissolved six days later on August 14. So fast.

    But there is also opposition to calling an early election. Many believe that a September election would be “hasty” and a more likely window would be after the 2025 budget statement. One of the key political events of the year, Singapore’s budget speech, is typically delivered by the finance minister in February. Many believe that Wong should not rush to seek a fresh mandate and instead take his time to make his case to voters. However, given the rapid preparations, it seems there is a high chance of an early call for a general election.

  • Modi Warned by Indian Voters

    Modi Warned by Indian Voters

    We love you, Modi. We need you, but we will not provide you with excessive power. This is the exact outcome of the Indian general election 2024. Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister, who was seeking a third consecutive term, failed to capture a majority single-handedly as he did in the previous two elections and is now forced to collaborate with allies. As per the latest report, it is certain that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will clinch power with 300 MPs, including independents who won in the election. However, the election results are contrary to celebrated predictions, which gave Modi a single-handed majority of 300 MPs out of 543. Many believe this unexpected election result is part of voters concern that securing a continuous mandate in favor of Modi could lead to authoritarianism and push him towards the collapse of the republic founded in 1950, ultimately leading to a Hindu nation.

    There were reported instances of authoritarianism and threats to the secular Indian republic during Modi’s second tenure and even during the campaign for this general election. Opposition figures who were reluctant to join BJP were punished by detective agencies, and the main opposition party, Indian National Congress, had its funds frozen at a time when they were in dire need. Additionally, all media, business tycoons, and movie stars aligned with the BJP, and the campaigns often turned into hate campaigns. Modi’s campaign highly idolized himself with slogans like ”Modi ki Guarantee” and he frequently boasted that he would win 400 seats while the opposition would not even cross 50. However, something different happened, as the election results proved.

    Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party can form a government, no doubts about it. BJP won 240 seats out of 543. No one is nearer, and the main opposition party Indian National Congress collected only 99 seats. There is no need to compare these two parties to determine the winner by tally. But Modi faces humiliation in India’s social media space because he alone couldn’t reach the 272 mark, the majority. Social media finds it amusing with the amount of money they used, the machinery they deployed, and all the tactics to tackle opposition chances. BJP still didn’t get the result they expected, and now they are relying on other parties. They are no longer invincible in India. 

    People appreciate Modi’s charisma and Indians admire his leadership. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that they may not fully endorse all of Modi’s unilateral actions; they prioritize safeguarding the constitution and halting authoritarian tendencies. Now, the BJP must broaden its alliances and foster more discussions among its allies and opposition, a departure from the previous term. Despite Modi’s assurance of continuing with allies, it remains to be seen how long he can sustain a united front. Modi previously ruled single-handedly, establishing his own brand by marginalizing other ministers and exercising control over every ministry. Going forward, this will not be feasible as they will have allies with differing interests. Modi can move forward, with parties like the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal United ready to join the BJP in a possible BJP-led NDA government. However, they may not fully support Modi’s policies and the BJP’s foundation agendas, which lean towards Hindu nationalism. Consequently, Modi faces constraints.

    The performance of opposition parties deserves applause, even though they failed to displace Modi. The Indian National Congress, which won 99 seats this time, doesn’t need to plead with the BJP for the official opposition leader post, which wasn’t granted in the previous two instances. The election results also favored the alliance led by the Indian National Congress, marking a resurgence for its leader Rahul Gandhi, who traveled across India to regain lost ground, although his leadership was previously questioned. The Samajwadi Party, the third-largest party in the election results, caused a major upset by breaking the BJP’s fortress in Uttar Pradesh and reducing seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party, securing 37 seats. Other parties in the opposition alliance, such as the Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, also performed well but fell short of toppling Modi’s dominance. However, the election results will undoubtedly boost the opposition alliance and parties, enabling them to raise issues like unemployment more prominently in the public sphere. It is expected that Indian media will finally allocate screen time to opposition parties as well.

    Indian democracy, frequently criticized by the West and seen as a bad example for democracy. But the election results show how Indians value their democracy and how they make decisions to safeguard the republic each time. Even though they did not punish Modi like they did with the previous autocracy wisher, Indira Gandhi, by giving all the mandate to the opposition bloc, they sent a strong message to Modi that the republic will be preserved. The possible next government by Modi will likely emphasize development programs instead of pushing Hindu agendas. For Modi, it’s time to review his actions and correct them; he has acted more like a king than a Prime Minister. So, the election results are good for Modi, good for the Opposition, and good for the republic.

  • India Entering A Political Circus

    India Entering A Political Circus

    Indian politicians and political parties are well known for their flexibility. They can shift sides sacrificing their political aims and stances to secure administration and power. This trend was common in the 1990s when several governments formed in New Delhi without a single majority, mixing up different ideological parties. Even parties that fought each other in Lok Sabha General elections would form alliances to form a government. There are several examples of this phenomenon; we even saw the Hindu Nationalist Party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Anti-Hindu Ideology Party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), coming together solely for the objective of forming a government, only to fail and soon after, find another partner. This trend, which badly affected India’s growth and the credibility of Indian politics, was diminished with the entry of Narendra Modi into national-level politics. He secured the magical number to form the government single-handedly in the general election. BJP formed the government with a single-handed majority but added their close allies ceremonially in 2014 and 2019. There was no scope for political circuses. Though the election results for the 2024 general election are coming out, BJP doesn’t have a single-handed majority, and is offering a great time for Political Circus again.

    While the Election Commission of India still has not officially published the full election results, the media is already announcing the outcome of the marathon Indian general election, stretched over seven phases and spanning over three months. It dealt a huge blow to predictions and opinion polls, which had anticipated more than 350 seats for the BJP-led alliance out of the 543 total constituencies, foreseeing an easy victory for the BJP. Even though the BJP emerged as the largest party after the election, it fell short by 32 seats  (at the time of writing) for a majority, which is 272. The main opposition party, INC, nearly doubled its previous seat count to 100, and with their alliance, they posed a tough fight for the BJP. At first glance, it may seem that the BJP-led alliance could easily form a government as they have a tally above the 272 mark. However, this is where India’s political circus comes into focus. The BJP-led alliance includes Janata Dal United (JDU), with 12 seats, and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), with 16 seats. They are known for their swing politics, having previously cooperated with the Indian National Congress. If they receive a favorable offer, they may jump to the opposition alliance, and to the hope of the Bharatiya Janata Party, these swing parties could also align with the BJP. Interestingly, besides the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress, everyone seems capable of switching sides.

    Even Though Modi can climb to the prime minister post for the third time, it’s sure it will not be the same as the previous Modi government. As the importance comes for the local parties which can help BJP to touch 272 mark, they can’t agree with the supremacy of Modi in Government,  idolizing and celebrating him in the government programs, and direct control of the Prime minister’s office in ministries. Sure, there will be opposition from allies. While BJP makes a mixture of the different politics in NDA, it’s sure different interests of each party will collide, Possible allies Janata dal united and Telugu Desam Party have regional interest and they uphold secularism over BJP’s Hindu nationalism. So bringing the bills in parliament, especially the bills projecting BJP’s ideologies, will be challenging unlike previous times. BJP’s flagship objectives like Uniform civil code, unification of Indosphere, which is widely expected to be carried on Modi’s third term with a great majority,  is in limbo now. Probably Allies, which projects secularism and regionalism will not cooperate with them.

    Indian circuses, widely known in the name of Bombay circuses were great entertainment to  watch and the current scenario in Indian politics after the general election results, with scope for a possible political circus will also be expected to offer entertainment. BJP has the upper hand, as they are still the biggest party, but who is going to stay with them is important. Before election results were announced, BJP leaders started talks with its current allies and parties in opposite blocs. BJP previously formed several state governments, by effectively catching the parties from the opposition bloc. The same strategy is expected by BJP here and they will form a government at whatever the cost. And INC the second biggest party, and Samajwadi Party third biggest party, they are allies now and They will probably wait, to watch the happenings, and they will try their best to  topple the BJP-led government, there is now more scope for them. The General election results clearly show BJP losing their tight grip in Indian Political space, and give negotiation capacity for small parties. It is sure that Modi’s third government will be completely different from the previous two terms.

  • West Bengal And Its Criminal Politics

    West Bengal And Its Criminal Politics

    West Bengal, an eastern province in India, was once considered the think tank of the country, producing a row of talents that India was proud of, including Rabindranath Tagore, Asia’s first Nobel laureate in literature, and Oscar-winning director Satyajit Ray, among many others. However, now West Bengal is infamous for politically affiliated criminal gangs and their lethal conflicts. Almost every month, there are reports of violent political gang wars, with the government led by Mamata Banerjee, leader of the All India Trinamool Congress, frequently accused of supporting these criminal activities. Following last year’s notorious Panchayat (Local Body) elections, it was reported that almost 50 people lost their lives. Political violence in rural Bengal continues unabated. Local body leaders are being killed, party offices are being set on fire, and opposition party workers are being brutally attacked. Events like those in Sandeshkhali, where party leaders turn into powerful authorities and rule through criminal activities, preventing other parties from conducting political activities, are not isolated incidents. These issues persist as West Bengal faces another significant election for the Lok Sabha in Delhi.

    Along with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, West Bengal is one of the few states in India where polling is spread across all seven phases of the marathon election, largely due to security concerns arising from political feuds. The Election Commission chose to conduct elections by selecting a small number of constituencies in each phase to provide tight security for the election process and to allow security agencies to take complete control of violence-prone hotspots, thus avoiding deadly fights. Despite tight security by different state and central agencies, sporadic incidents of violence were reported across the state during the six completed phases. The Election Commission of India reported receiving nearly 1,000 complaints following the last phase alone, and police noted clashes and threats in various areas. Each phase has witnessed significant violence, whereas the rest of the nation, including volatile Kashmir, has hosted elections peacefully. Interestingly, despite the high political tensions, a higher voter turnout was recorded in Bengal, in contrast to the lower responses seen in the rest of India.

    West Bengal is a crucial battleground in the Lok Sabha elections, contributing 42 seats to the 545-seat Lok Sabha (House of Commons), making it the third-largest contributor after Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), aiming for a third consecutive term, needs to secure more seats from the state, having won only 18 out of 42 seats previously. The All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), the current ruling party in the state, is also strongly contesting the ongoing general election. The intense rivalry between these parties is leading to disastrous street fights and other criminal activities in the state. Formerly dominant parties like the Indian National Congress, and India’s biggest communist party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), are also contesting the Lok Sabha election, but this time as allies, turning it into a three-way fight between the BJP, AITC, and the CPIM-Congress Alliance.

    While the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) and BJP are now leading the violent politics, many experts believe that the past Communist years, which lasted for a long time, laid the groundwork for the current situation. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), or shortly CPIM, dominated the political sphere from the 1960s onward, displacing the Indian National Congress (INC) in the state. Like most communist governments worldwide, CPIM established groups capable of quashing political opposition in their strongholds. In some places, these groups evolved into more violent factions, including Naxals, who opposed the Indian Union. Even though CPIM distanced itself from Naxals, CPIM-supported groups, criminal gangs became increasingly common in West Bengal. The long rule of a single party, the bureaucratic culture of communism, economic decline of the state, and lack of employment all contributed to the evolution of political gang culture in Bengal. When CPIM was removed from power after a long tenure, many of these gangs migrated to the All India Trinamool Congress, where they continued their criminal activities. Interestingly, these gangs then started to target CPIM, their former supporters. However, with Narendra Modi’s seismic entry into national politics, the Bengal landscape was also shaken. The BJP replaced CPIM as the prime opposition party, possessing the finances, ideology, and power to challenge Trinamool Congress. And Bengal became the arena for these two heavyweights, further splitting the gangs into AITC-linked and BJP-linked factions. Many analysts fear that the BJP’s entry into Bengal may escalate political gang wars along communal lines, as the party represents Hindu nationalism, while Bengal’s large Muslim population, many of whom migrated from Bangladesh, stands firmly with the Trinamool Congress, paving the way for a potential communal clash in the future.

    We cannot deem it democracy when violence becomes the means to seize power. However, in Bengal, violence is increasingly becoming a tool for political parties to assert control and uphold their dominance. Political parties shamelessly nurture individuals associated with violence. Police and judiciary intervention is limited due to extensive support for gangs from lawmakers. We cannot expect an end to this cycle as both state and central governments are complicit in using these criminals, regardless of their party affiliations. However, The decline of Bengal persists, with no concerted efforts to rectify the situation.

  • The Hindu Rivalry in Maharashtra Politics

    The Hindu Rivalry in Maharashtra Politics

    Maharashtra, the richest state in India, has always been a stronghold for Hindu politics. It boasts a proud history with Chhatrapati Shivaji, the king who established a strong Hindu kingdom and fought against the Islamic Mughal Empire. The Hindu Maratha Kingdom and Shivaji remain sources of pride for Maharashtrians even today. Many organizations in Maharashtra claim Shivaji’s succession. Shiv Sena, one of the biggest political parties in Maharashtra, is a group of proud followers of Shivaji, formed by Shivaji devotee Bal Thackeray. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the current ruling party of India, also supports Shivaji’s pro-Hindu ideology. Naturally, the Hindu nationalist BJP and the Hindu regionalist Shiv Sena became allies, forming joint governments in Maharashtra. However, following interesting events after the 2019 general election, a serious crack formed in the relationship. These former Hindu brothers became the worst of enemies and now find themselves on opposing fronts, engaging in fierce battles against each other to remove the other from Maharashtra Politics.

    Maharashtra, including India’s financial capital, Mumbai, contributes the second-largest number of members to the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). After populous Uttar Pradesh, the 48 MPs from Maharashtra are crucial for forming the government in Delhi, making its politics always significant for Indian politics. Like many other Indian states, the Indian National Congress (INC) dominated the state after independence, continuously forming governments in the state until the 1990s. However, after Shiv Sena decided to enter parliamentary politics and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) provided strong support, forming a Hindu alliance, the political landscape in Maharashtra changed. The allies clinched power by removing INC. Then, two clear political spheres emerged: the Hindu alliance led by Shiv Sena and BJP, and the secular sphere led by INC and its schism, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

    With Narendra Modi’s entrance into the leadership of the BJP in 2014, the scenario changed dramatically once again. With Modi’s popularity, the BJP rose as the biggest Hindu party in Maharashtra, overtaking Shiv Sena in terms of obtaining seats in the state assembly and parliament. This eventually grew into a serious ego clash, leading to the collapse of their alliance. Shiv Sena then moved to a secular alliance with Congress and NCP, forming a government together at the state level. However, the BJP managed to split Shiv Sena, causing a significant number of Shiv Sena members in the state assembly to move to the BJP side. This led to the toppling of the Shiv Sena government with Congress and NCP. The BJP then formed a government with the splintered faction of Shiv Sena. Through these actions, reminiscent of Hindu mythologies, the rivalry between BJP and Shiv Sena intensified. Interestingly, the Election Commission granted the faction that joined the BJP official status, including the party’s symbol and colors. This marked the complete collapse of Shiv Sena and a thorough victory for Modi and the BJP. The remaining faction, led by Uddhav Thackeray, the son of founding leader Bal Thackeray, continued as Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) and remained aligned with Congress.

    The ongoing general election is taking place in this tumultuous political landscape. Long-term allies are now fighting each other by leading separate fronts. Whoever secures more seats in the general election will gain an advantage in the upcoming crucial state assembly elections. It’s a race to determine who carries the Hindu legacy and who carries Shivaji’s legacy. The volatile election is filled with toxic comments and is attracting attention throughout the country. The comment of Shiv Sena (Udhav) leaders comparing Modi to Aurangzeb and Narendra Modi’s reply all took the headlines nationwide. Shiv Sena, which lost its official status to the faction that moved to the BJP side, now known as Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), is fighting alongside their old foes, the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The NCP was also split by the same strategy the BJP used on Shiv Sena. In the alliance, Shiv Sena (Uddhav) will contest in 21 seats, INC will contest in 17 seats, and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) will contest in 10 seats. Meanwhile, the BJP’s alliance, which includes the Election Commission’s officially recognized factions of Shiv Sena and NCP, will see the BJP contest in 28 seats, the official Shiv Sena faction in 15 seats, and the official NCP faction in 4 seats. With five phases of the election in the state, only one phase remains, scheduled for May 20th. 

    Opinion polls are predicting a close contest for both sides. Even though Modi remains a popular leader in the state, there is considerable sympathy for Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), NCP, and INC, which have also lost leaders to the BJP alliance. Many believe that while leaders have jumped to the BJP alliance, the supporters remain with the opposition. Election analysts point out that different vote banks in different sectors, who conventionally do not join, can be stitched together by the alliance of Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and Congress. Hindu nationalists, Muslim voters, and secular voters can join with the alliance. However, Maharashtra is crucial for Modi’s aspiration for a third term, so he is also contesting fiercely. The election result will reveal who is the true Hindu leader in Maharashtra and who is the inheritor of Shivaji’s legacy. So the result day will be a significant day in Maharashtra politics.