Tag: Elections 2024-25

  • How the Congress leader’s racist remark stirred controversy in India?

    How the Congress leader’s racist remark stirred controversy in India?

    Racism is an accepted joke in India. It is visible in public spaces, offices, and almost everywhere. Indian movies often depict scenes making jokes about black people and glorifying white individuals. It’s a common trend where villains and hooligans are portrayed as black, while heroes and heroines are white. People from the northeast, primarily Mongoloid, were humiliated by being referred to as other nationalities like Chinese. Furthermore, Southern Indian individuals have been called derogatory terms such as “negroes” by Indo-European people in the northern regions. As Southern Indian and northeastern individuals become more educated and attain better financial conditions compared to northern India, and as they ascend to important positions in government bodies, derogatory jokes of this nature have gradually diminished. However, as the General Election season heats up, the racist comment made by the leader of the Indian National Congress (INC) has once again brought racism in India to the forefront as a contentious issue.

    Sam Pitroda, a telecom entrepreneur, advisor to former prime ministers, and the former chairman of the Indian National Congress’s overseas wing, made a controversial comment that suddenly became a trending topic in Indian political spheres. He stated that over the past 75 years, Indians had thrived in a harmonious environment where people had coexisted, despite occasional disputes. Indians managed to unite a nation as diverse as India, where individuals in the east resembled those from China, in the west like Arabs, in the north like Europeans, and perhaps in the south like Africans. Furthermore, he added that diversity was not a problem at all as Indians considered themselves as brothers and sisters. However, the comments comparing South Indians, predominantly of Dravidian ethnicity, to Africans, and likening North East Indian people to the enemy country Chinese, were suddenly thrust into India’s political sphere.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), facing a tough fight from the Indian National Congress-led alliance in the ongoing general election, found Sam’s comment to be a boon. They cunningly used the comment made by the 81-year-old when only 3 out of 7 total phases had been completed, with remaining places including some in South India, a stronghold of the Indian National Congress. However, the BJP shrewdly exploited the situation against the Indian National Congress, highlighting their British connection and Rahul Gandhi’s Italian heritage, the current leader and star campaigner of the Indian National Congress. The BJP has consistently accused foreign media of aiding the Congress, and this incident was skillfully directed towards the influence of foreign culture on Indian culture. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself entered the stage, stating that Pitroda’s comment reflects the mindset of the Indian National Congress and their white worship. He added that Indians revere Lord Krishna, who is depicted as black, and do not harbor racist thoughts.

    The Indian National Congress, which was gaining momentum in Indian election campaigns, was severely hit by Sam Pitroda’s comment. Prior to this incident, there was another comment by Pitroda that caused trouble for Congress by suggesting an inheritance tax on the new wealth management system. Modi also used this comment against Congress by interpreting it from another perspective. As Pitrodha repeatedly made controversial statements, Congress removed him from his position and stated they do not support his statements. They accused the BJP of using his statements in a manner that he did not mean, and claimed that the BJP is diverting voters’ attention from the real issues in Indian politics. Some leaders suggest that the Indian culture Modi advocates has more racist elements than Western culture. However, the comments celebrated in the Indian political space will likely trouble the Indian National Congress.

    India is a multi-ethnic, multilingual country. Many wonder how such a country with so much diversity can exist. However, the country demonstrates unity and economic progress. Many believe that comments like those made by Sam Pitroda will affect India’s diverse culture and integrity, while others believe that Indian society accepts this kind of racism as humor and will overlook it. However, timing was crucial, and the BJP effectively used the situation. It’s time to rethink the leadership of INC, the venerable party, as their own leaders consistently lead them into trouble and their victories handed to the BJP. Regardless of the political aspect, such comments have far reaching consequences.

  • What’s Behind The Dip In Voting Percentage In India?

    What’s Behind The Dip In Voting Percentage In India?

    It’s a massive effort being carried out by the Indian government and the Election Commission to conduct the mammoth general election. The voting schedule spans seven phases over a two-month period, involving almost 970 million voters. A significant amount of money is being spent on campaigns to bring almost every voter to the polling booths. Democracy is only complete with the participation of people. Although efforts have been made by the Election Commission and political parties, the first three phases of polls have concluded with a lukewarm response. In the first two phases, there was a dip in percentage turnout, and in the third phase, although comparatively better, it remained low. Why are Indian voters reluctant to cast their votes? Which party will benefit from the low turnout?

    After extensive campaigning by both the Election Commission and political parties for the general election, the first phase of polling was conducted on April 19th, but it marked a decrease in the recorded vote percentage. As many as 102 seats went to the polls in the first phase, with a final turnout of 66.14 per cent, a decrease under 4 percent from 70 per cent in 2019. This phenomenon sparked curiosity in the electoral arena as younger voters, increasingly active on social media discussing politics, are observed to be less engaged in actually casting their votes. All political parties were disappointed as they did not receive the expected turnout. The first phase included Tamil Nadu, a southern state where Modi heavily concentrated, but the voting percentage decreased. There was zero voter turnout in 6 districts in Nagaland amid a shutdown call by some organizations, and the BJP’s stronghold recorded a lower turnout than in 2019. The trend continued in the second phase as well. In the second phase, for 88 seats, the election was conducted on April 26, registering a dip of about 3 percentage points in the voter turnout from 69.64 per cent in 2019. Interestingly, states like Kerala, which usually have a high percentage of voting, also recorded a lower turnout.

    Despite some single-digit percentage decreases, considering India’s mammoth population, there will be thousands of people withdrawing from the voting process, which is a significant blow to Indian democracy. This goes against the trend of increasing voter turnout in the last election when youths were increasingly ready to participate. However, the recent dip shows that youths are not actively participating, posing a threat to democracy. Fortunately, in the third phase of polling, after calls from the Prime Minister and the Election Commission to encourage participation in the election, on May 7th, a turnout of 64.45% was recorded, which is closer to the turnout in 2019. Thanks to Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, and Tripura, but the most populous state with a higher number of constituencies, Uttar Pradesh, continued the trend of decreasing percentage, with only 52.24% voter turnout. This means almost half of the population did not take part in the election, raising concerns for the Election Commission.

    While the Election Commission attributes the lower voter percentage to the harsh summer, with temperatures rising over 40°C and heat waves making people reluctant to vote, there are also political causes behind this decline. As experiencing a dip in voter percentage from 2019, which had propelled Modi and the BJP to power, it surely will affect Modi’s third term wish. A lower turnout indicates that there is no wave for Modi and Hindu vote consolidation. Opposition leaders also point out that the lower voting percentage, with all their votes are ensured, and the high interest among Muslim voters in the election will give the opposition party an edge. Experts believe that people’s reluctance to vote in connection with many believe election results will not bring any change, Modi will surely win his third term, that opinion polls and news channels predict, oppositions have nothing to do with it. They have become disinterested in the election, expecting a sure win for the BJP. Some are also discontent with Modi’s campaign that says they will surely win more than 400 seats, that brings an idea to people that the election result is already decided. Though It is clear that the ruling party will suffer more with a lower percentage, opposition parties also fear that besides party votes neutral votes will not be casted, so, they all are working to fix the issues in the upcoming phases.

    Three out of the seven phases of the Indian general election have been completed, leaving four more phases before the scheduled vote counting on June 4th. However, with several phases still ahead, out of the 543 seats, the election process for over half, 283 seats, has concluded. The remaining places include important states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Punjab. Political parties are addressing the lower turnout, and they are increasing their efforts to bring more people to the polling stations in the upcoming phases. National leaders, including the Prime Minister, are urging citizens to cast their votes, while the Election Commission is also working to enhance facilities and attract more voters. However, as every vote counts in democracy, people’s reluctance to participate is not a good sign.

  • What makes Uttar Pradesh the Focal Point of Indian General Elections?

    What makes Uttar Pradesh the Focal Point of Indian General Elections?

    Uttar Pradesh is the powerhouse of Indian Politics. With an approximate population of 250 million, it would rank fifth, just below the fourth-placed Indonesia, if it was an independent country. The most populous state in India, wields considerable influence in the country’s representative parliamentary system. The state holds 80 seats, the highest number of seats, out of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (House of commons). Therefore, whoever secures more seats in Uttar Pradesh will determine who will wield power in New Delhi. In the ongoing 2024 general election, voting in Uttar Pradesh spans all seven phases, and unlike the previous elections, the fight is concentrated between the two powerful alliances as seen at the national level. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance and the Indian National Congress led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) are making final efforts to sway voters in their favor.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party and their allies swept almost every seat in the last two general elections. BJP is confident and hopes they can improve the tally from last time’s 62 seats out of 80 and 50% vote share. Uttar Pradesh contributed more to Modi’s magic in the recent Indian general elections or made Modi’s magic run possible. Several factors favor the BJP this time around. There is a notable absence of anti-incumbency sentiment, and Narendra Modi remains the most popular leader in the state. The positive mood towards the BJP-led Uttar Pradesh state government and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is another factor BJP will benefit from. The construction of Ram Mandir, infrastructure projects, and welfare programs for the common people will contribute. Under Modi’s leadership, BJP successfully broke the caste politics once prominent in the state, which is expected to decrease votes for opposition parties that mostly relied on caste politics.  The BJP maintains alliances with minor regional parties such as Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal Sonelal, and is competing in a total of 75 out of 80 seats, with the remaining 5 allocated to these regional parties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is standing from Varanasi, as in previous general elections.

    The Indian National Congress (INC), the venerable political party and the second-largest in India, lacks its former prominence in Uttar Pradesh. So, they are in alliance with the strongest regional party in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP). The alliance is part of the national-level I.N.D.I.A alliance, which gives a tight contest for Narendra Modi’s third term wish. A total of 62 seats out of 80 will be contested by the Samajwadi Party, 17 seats are allocated for the Indian National Congress, and 1 seat is for the Trinamool Congress. The last general election was a disaster for the Samajwadi Party and the Indian National Congress. The Samajwadi Party only got 5 seats, and the INC shrunk to one seat. Both parties’ recent great performances occurred in the 2009 general election, before Modi’s entry. In that election, the SP won 23 seats, and the INC won 21 seats from Uttar Pradesh. But in the next general election, the political landscape completely changed with Modi’s entry. However, this time, the alliance is confident to gather anti-BJP votes, secular votes, and Muslim votes. They expect that even though anti-incumbency sentiment is not visible outside, people have concerns about the lack of jobs and loss of recruitment in government posts, against the backdrop of unemployment in India. The alliance expects that the call for a caste census will successfully disrupt the Hindu unity stitched by Narendra Modi. Moreover, the decision of charming leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi to contest seats in Uttar Pradesh will delight the party’s supporters.

    The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also vying for seats in Uttar Pradesh. Though, Similar to the INC, they are encountering significant challenges in the state. They are contesting in 79 seats in Uttar Pradesh and without forming any major alliance. In the last election, they got the second-biggest tally in Uttar Pradesh with 10 seats. However, they had an alliance with SP in that election that collapsed soon after the election, and since then, the party has been in constant deterioration. Mayawati, the supreme leader, is not looking to contest in the Lok Sabha election, and her nephew, raised as her successor, is not looking like a charming leader. It’s clear they can’t make a stunning performance like in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, but if they repeat 2019’s result, BSP can remain in the political sphere of Uttar Pradesh, and they can be an important player if BJP doesn’t get a single-handed majority at the national level. The Communist Party is also contesting in Uttar Pradesh but doesn’t seem like it will make an impact.

    Uttar Pradesh has always perplexed political experts. The “Modi magic” in Previous general elections in Uttar Pradesh was also a wonder. And if Modi gets another sweep from the state, that will also be a wonder. Given the inherent bias in Indian opinion polls, they are not a reliable indicator. However, judging from the state’s mood and the polling rates of the preceding two phases, the BJP seems to hold the advantage. However, the contest between the BJP alliance and the INC alliance remains tight. While exit polls suggest a BJP sweep akin to the 2014 election, there’s anticipation for the Samajwadi Party to stage a comeback. INC and BSP expect seats. It’s evident that Uttar Pradesh plays a crucial role in shaping every parliament and the forthcoming one, so political parties are sparing no effort to sway Uttar Pradesh’s electorate. As someone aptly said, Uttar Pradesh will determine the rulers for New Delhi.

  • Does The LDP’s Loss In Elections Signal For Kishida’s Future?

    Does The LDP’s Loss In Elections Signal For Kishida’s Future?

    As he assumed office in late 2021, Fumio Kishida, the Prime Minister of Japan and president of the country’s ruling conservative party, the LDP, made promises of a “New Capitalism” and a stronger Japan abroad. He pledged solutions to the country’s demographic crisis and was widely welcomed on international stages as a strong leader from Japan following Shinzo Abe. However, now he finds himself navigating a sea of struggles, with no visible improvement in the economic and social situation, and the LDP experiencing a significant loss in crucial by-elections within their party strongholds. The main opposition party, the CDP, has won three seats formerly held by the LDP. The result is widely interpreted as voter anger and punishment for the LDP’s involvement in a years-long corruption saga. These losses coincide with Kishida’s struggle to rebuild support for his cabinet amidst voter discontent over inflation and the scandal. The defeats may dissuade him from calling a general election prior to the party leadership vote in September, where there’s a risk of him being replaced.

    Over the past two weeks, international media outlets have been celebrating Fumio Kishida for his efforts to foster collaboration among East Asian countries and his advocacy for the US’s global leadership role. Kishida may have found reassurance in the recent suggestion by US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell that he, along with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, should be considered joint recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize for their endeavors to confront their countries’ turbulent historical legacies and present a united front against nuclear-armed North Korea. Additionally, Prime Minister Kishida received acclaim for his speech to the US Congress. His address was met with cheers, marking him as only the second Japanese leader to speak before a joint session of Congress, following in the footsteps of Shinzo Abe. However, after his return to Tokyo following a productive summit with Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister has encountered strong domestic political challenges. The yen’s plummet against the dollar, the persistent cost-of-living crisis, and uncertainties surrounding the funding of policies aimed at tackling Japan’s low birth rate and its most significant military buildup since the end of the war further exacerbate the situation.

    However, the most significant debate arises from a funding scandal, initially disclosed last year, which has emerged as a focal point for public outrage amid increasing doubts regarding Prime Minister Kishida’s capacity to lead the LDP to success in the upcoming lower house elections. Although the election is not scheduled for well over a year, the scandal, involving 85 LDP lawmakers who were discovered to have funneled undisclosed profits from ticket sales for party events into slush funds, has left Kishida with little room to maneuver. The party’s response to the slush fund debacle has consistently failed to convince the public, and there is scant reason to believe that planned reforms would reverse this trend. Efforts to mend the damage inflicted by the funding scandal, along with promises of reforming political funding regulations, have also proven ineffective in mitigating criticism from the media. Despite the punishment of 39 LDP lawmakers, Kishida evaded censure despite evidence indicating that his own faction had similarly underreported ticket sale, highlighting apparent double standards that risk inciting a factional power struggle, potentially leaving him politically wounded as he endeavors to secure his party’s endorsement as LDP president this autumn.

    The defeat in Shimane, along with victories for non-LDP candidates in other by-elections on Sunday, may ignite an early challenge to Kishida’s leadership as the party prepares for presidential elections in September, where the winner is automatically appointed prime minister. Despite generally positive feedback regarding his summit with Joe Biden earlier this month, three April surveys indicated that approval for Kishida’s cabinet fell well below the 30 percent threshold often considered a danger zone for Japanese premiers. Despite its robust economy, the country is experiencing turmoil within its political sphere. Now is a critical moment for Japan to confront these challenges head-on. Once the world’s second-largest economy, Japan risks being surpassed by numerous countries in the upcoming decades, which will undoubtedly impact the current trajectory of the nation. Therefore, these are valuable times for Japanese politicians to take action.

  • Can Rahul Gandhi Bring Back the Era of Caste Politics in India?

    Can Rahul Gandhi Bring Back the Era of Caste Politics in India?

    Castes, the subdivisions in Hindu society, have always been a political tool in India. People have voted for leaders from their caste, and caste-based politics, or caste politics, became prominent in Indian politics. More than development and basic infrastructure, people love leaders and parties that speak for their caste. In a country where marriages are arranged based on caste, caste-based voting is quite understandable. However, in recent years, under Modi’s regime, caste politics is facing tough challenges. Modi’s religious politics successfully blanketed caste politics; he brought all Hindu castes under an umbrella and called for Hindu unity, causing a significant setback for Indian opposition parties, which lost their conventional voting patterns. In response, opposition parties are protesting against religious politics and now calling for the return of caste politics. Rahul Gandhi, the prominent leader of the opposition party, repeated calls for a caste census, considered a significant move to bring back caste politics in India.

    Since independence, castes have been a factor in Indian elections, although their impact was not visible in initial elections due to sentiments lingering from the Indian independence movement and the animosity directed against Muslims from the Partition. However, there have been voices raised against the neglect of backward castes. Higher castes, such as Brahmins, have traditionally held positions in higher levels of administration, while backward castes, which are more numerous, have historically been sidelined and severely disadvantaged due to educational and economic backwardness. Dr. Ambedkar, a renowned Dalit leader in India, voiced concern about this situation and advocated for the reservation system to benefit the most backward classes, commonly known as scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. However, the system has failed to sufficiently meet the needs of the of backward castes. Consequently, politics based on caste empowerment slowly commenced in the Indian political sphere. Several leaders have emerged as caste advocates, and several parties have been formed to represent different castes.

    The Indian National Congress, now voicing for caste politics, was initially against it and used religious politics to suppress the rise of caste politics. However, caste-based mobilization and communities have become common. The Mandal Commission report, which emerged after extensive protests, shook the Indian political sphere. Movements like government job reservations, where government jobs are highly prestigious, shook the nation and led to the rise of caste-based political parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, and Lok Dal. The Bahujan Samaj Party, aimed at empowering backward castes, became a national-level party, marking the peak of caste politics while religious politics suffered. 

    However, corruption, greedy leaders, and dynasty politics resulted in the diminishing influence of caste-based political parties in later years. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, caste politics was undergoing a reduction in significance. The Bharatiya Janata Party, advocating Hindu nationalism and often expressing animosity towards Muslims, successfully united all castes and formed a massive Hindu vote bank. They appointed a Scheduled Caste and a Scheduled Tribe person to the country’s most respected position, the Indian presidency. Through this action, Ram Nath Kovind, a Scheduled Caste individual, and Draupati Murmu, the incumbent president from a Scheduled Tribe, assumed the presidential role, while Narendra Modi himself is from a backward community. They effectively reshaped the political landscape into Hindu nationalists versus Anti-Hindus. Opposition parties, including the Indian National Congress, are accused by the BJP of being sentimentally inclined towards Muslims.

    As Narendra Modi is seeking a third term, the opposition has begun addressing the strategy adopted by the BJP and is ready to undermine Hindu unity or religious politics and bring back caste politics. The Indian National Congress, once damaged by caste politics, is now the front-runner advocate for caste politics because they know it’s the only way to counter Narendra Modi’s dominance. They have started working on this strategy. Rahul Gandhi, the most influential leader in Indian politics after Narendra Modi, frequently advocates for a caste census. The caste census is a tool to determine the number of people in various castes and their economic and social status. Many expect that conducting a caste census will evoke a situation similar to that after the implementation of the Mandal Commission report, where people will vote according to their caste sentiment rather than religious interests, potentially splitting the Hindu vote bank created by the BJP. This could revive caste-based political parties that are now in alliance with the Indian National Congress. Therefore, the Opposition alliance and the Indian National Congress are actively promoting the caste census, repeatedly mentioning it in different rallies and including it in their election manifesto.

    Caste politics was once believed to improve the living conditions of backward castes and untouchables -But it doesn’t. Leaders of caste politics parties and their relatives became wealthier and more influential, but this did not benefit the common people, who still suffer from poverty and social backwardness. Caste politics has drawn criticism for worsening the state of people, with all caste-based political parties being highly corrupted and facing serious accusations, with some even in jail. Rahul Gandhi aims to introduce a caste census only for political purposes. But if the opposition wins, by campaigning for caste census, it may mark the return of caste politics in India.

  • Pro-China Party Emerges Victorious In Maldives Parliament Election

    Pro-China Party Emerges Victorious In Maldives Parliament Election

    The Maldives is drifting away from India. Following the Maldives parliamentary election held on April 21st, the pro-China party, People’s National Congress (PNC), emerged victorious. President Muizzu’s PNC’s win garnered significant attention due to its strong ties with China, which coincide with its expressed hostility towards India. The People’s National Congress (PNC) secured 66 out of the first 86 seats declared by the Elections Commission of Maldives, exceeding the threshold for a super-majority in the 93-member parliament. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which had aimed to obstruct efforts to reshape Maldivian diplomacy, faced a substantial setback after its previous landslide victory in the 2019 elections. The outcome was seen as a validation of Muizzu’s push for strengthened collaboration with China.

    Maldives, an archipelago nation made up of approximately 1,192 small coral islands spanning 800 kilometers near the equator, stands as one of the nations most susceptible to rising sea levels due to global warming. Despite its vulnerability, this premier luxury destination finds itself at the center of significant geopolitical tensions. China’s extensive investment in various infrastructure projects such as land reclamation, apartment complexes, and bridges has led to a notable shift in the country’s allegiance towards China. Although the Maldives lacks historical ties to China, the populace has increasingly embraced Chinese influence due to the economic and emotional advantages derived from these investments. China’s strategic move in the Indian Ocean, along with its significant financing of infrastructure initiatives in countries surrounding India, is being viewed as a potential strategy to ensnare smaller states in debt and exert influence as proxies for China. India is concerned that China may exploit the strategic positioning of the Maldives, Which is close to Indian shores. Historically, the Maldives enjoyed a close relationship with India, benefiting from historical ties and Indian assistance in safeguarding its sovereignty, including thwarting an invasion attempt by Sri Lanka. However, under President Muizzu’s tenure, there has been a notable shift away from India, evidenced by politicians, including members of the government, openly ridiculing Indian Prime Minister Modi and India. Tensions heightened when the Maldives chose to remove Indian military personnel deployed under an agreement. And also President Muizzu refrained from ceremonial visits to India, instead favoring engagements with Turkey and China. These events sparked campaigns against the Maldives in India, leading to a notable economic downturn for Maldives.

    In the midst of heightened geopolitical tensions, the resounding victory of Muizzu’s party reflects the prevailing sentiment within the state. Muizzu himself emerged triumphant in last September’s presidential election, representing the interests of the pro-China former president Abdulla Yameen, who was recently released following the overturning of his 11-year corruption conviction by the court. Before this parliamentary election, Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) and its allies held only eight seats in parliament, limiting Muizzu’s capacity to implement his agenda post his presidential victory. However, as campaigning for the parliamentary elections intensified this month, Muizzu strategically awarded significant infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, the principal opposition party, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which had previously held a super-majority, suffered a humiliating defeat, securing just a dozen seats. Additionally, independents secured 11 seats in the parliament.

    Despite the concerns raised by ecologists and climate activists about the future of the island nation, which stands among the first countries significantly affected by climate change, it seems that both the populace and politicians are not prioritizing it as they should. This sentiment is reflected in the election results, with Muizzu, the former construction minister, planning to pursue further apartment construction, land reclamation, and other large-scale projects that strain the capacity of the fragile coral islands. The political landscape is heavily influenced by Islamism, with foreign affairs failing to adequately address the realities of climate change. However, this victory is a green flag for Muizzu and China.

  • The Politics of Opinion Polls: Can We Rely on Indian Opinion Polls?

    The Politics of Opinion Polls: Can We Rely on Indian Opinion Polls?

    The mammoth Indian general election, unfolding across multiple phases starting on April 19th. anticipates the participation of over 96 million voters throughout its seven phases spanning two months. Results are slated for release on June 4th, marking nearly 50 days since the inauguration of the first polling phase. As India asserts itself as a global force in both economic and political spheres, the Indian election gains paramount importance internationally. Supporters of democracy closely scrutinize the intricate electoral processes, applauding Indian authorities for effectively engaging such a vast electorate. Nevertheless, numerous analysts voice concerns over potential flaws in the democratic system. The prevalence of smartphones among the populace, often outweighing educational resources, exacerbates susceptibility to misinformation and paid propaganda. From television to cinema, there is a considerable propaganda drive aimed at shaping the mood of the nation, often overshadowing real issues. Opinion polls are one of the tools used in Indian elections, often tailored to specific interests and potentially influencing the collective mood of the nation. In a country like India, celebrated for its mob mentality, opinion polls are considered to have a significant impact.

    Opinion polls have been a fixture in elections worldwide for many years, utilized by political parties and the press in various democracies such as France and the United States for centuries. Over time, they have developed foolproof sampling, leveraging technology to minimize inaccuracies. Nonetheless, from the outset, many have raised objections to opinion polls, questioning their reliability and their influence on voters and politicians. Several countries have implemented regulations governing opinion polls, and allegations of biased funding against certain well-known polling agencies have undermined their credibility, leading to doubts about their impartiality. As opinion polls stir considerable tumult in the Western world, India, the largest democracy, has only recently adopted this trend in the 21st century. While some press and agencies had conducted opinion polls previously, they did not gain much popularity. However, the proliferation of television and rivalry between television channels propelled opinion polls into prominence in India. Initially confined to major cities, India’s opinion polls expanded through technological advancements and substantial funding. Indeed, opinion polling has burgeoned into one of the most lucrative industries in India, with television channels, the press, and YouTube channels vying for the services of surveying agencies or establishing their own survey teams.

    Opinion polls in India have peaked in the last 10 years, with many inaccuracies regarding the winners of constituencies and completely wrong predictions at the state level, although at the national level, most opinion polls predicted the general mood. However, questions persist about the sampling methods and the impact of opinion polls on Indian people. The population is highly diverse, encompassing various ethnicities, religions, views, and languages, and individuals often feel ashamed, fearful, or dishonest about revealing their voting preferences. Despite education levels, factors such as family influence, caste dynamics, mob mentality, and celebrity endorsements heavily shape voter mentality. Additionally, millions of people may never encounter any opinion poll.

    Though The result of opinion polls have become celebrated in the television and social media. In this context, Indian opposition parties accuse Indian opinion polls of being highly corrupted and influenced by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and business interests. They claim that television channels and major agencies, currently funded by BJP-linked business entities, propagate the notion that the opposition is weak and that Modi will secure most seats. This creates a “Bandwagon Effect”, prompting voters to support the candidate perceived to be winning in the polls. Those familiar with the parliamentary system tend to favor the party projected to win, making it a potent election strategy. The river of Opinion polls  from the past year predicting Modi’s third term and the humiliation of the opposition are likely to influence public opinion.

    According to the findings of numerous television, print, and YouTube channels engaged in conducting surveys, many of which boast considerable sample sizes of up to 200,000, all indicate that the BJP is likely to emerge victorious. Despite the Election Commission’s mandate prohibiting opinion polls within 48 hours before polling commences, the released results have already shaped a favorable narrative for the BJP. Voters are primarily interested in electing members from the party projected to govern the state, or they prefer candidates aligned with the ruling party over those going to sit in the opposition bloc. Thus, opinion polls are poised to have a significant impact on the outcome of the Indian general election.

  • Ruling Party Gets Heavy Defeat in South Korean Parliamentary Elections

    Ruling Party Gets Heavy Defeat in South Korean Parliamentary Elections

    People showed a red signal to the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in the South Korean Parliamentary Election. The party, along with a number of prominent leaders, suffered defeat in the 22nd general election, which was held on April 10th to choose 300 lawmakers. Under the leadership of progressive leader Lee Jae-myung, who was the target of an assassination attempt earlier this year, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea reaped a landslide victory. The Democratic Party secured 161 seats out of the 254 constituency seats where members are chosen by the direct voting system. By combining the seats gained by the allies and the proportional seats, Lee Jae-Myung can easily form a strong government.

    With an overall turnout of 67 percent, the highest in 32 years, the shift of the wind was sensible and became evident with the election results. The People Power party, a conservative party which had won the presidential election two years before, saw conservative figure Yoon Suk Yeol take oath as president. Yoon’s campaign was successful in upholding Korean conservatism. However, the people decided to vote against the People Power party in the parliamentary election to replace the government under the prime ministership of Han Duck Soo, who was accused of several instances of corruption and misdeeds. The aggressive actions against opposition leaders, rising inflation, and the ongoing doctors’ strike all contributed to the loss of the People Power party, which only secured 109 seats, a combined number of constitutional and proportional seats. 

    The election has piqued the interest of the international media since it is perceived as a showdown between liberalism and conservatism, a trend that is currently evident in all democracies. Furthermore, Korea is perceived as a significant cultural force, and the belief that it is undergoing a rapid social revolution only adds to the curiosity 

    As the Prime Minister and leader of the disastrous election campaign, Han Duck Soo, along with his colleagues and senior politicians, took responsibility and offered their resignations. However, the result is actually a severe blow to President Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon accepted the result and promised a revision, though conventionally, a parliamentary election is considered as an assessment of the president or a referendum, and he failed. As many political analysts previously predicted, he planned to implement significant changes in domestic policies by leaning towards a conservative agenda before, but now it seems impossible. It’s clear that as the opposition holds the majority, they can block presidential vetoes and the passage of constitutional amendments. Yoo will be a lame duck leader as his rule has three more years in his five-year tenure.

    In terms of foreign policy, the South Korean parliamentary election is not having any serious effect, but the result is saddening for the United States and Japan. The relationship is at its warmest point, and they admire Yoon. However, the current prime minister has often adopted neutral stances on the Taiwan and Ukraine issues. Nevertheless, as the country highly values the international policies it has crafted with the United States and Japan, the election result will not have much impact

    The election result is hailed by the media as punishment for the previous government, which brought the people’s lives into misery with price hikes. Many experts point out that South Korean people prefer liberalism over conservatism, and it’s true. With the alliance of the Democratic Party and other liberal parties like the Progressive Party and the New Progressive Alliance winning seats, it clearly shows the mood of the nation. Additionally, many small parties also secured seats in the election by capitalizing on discontent with conventional parties. Despite being founded weeks before the election under the former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, the new Rebuilding Korea Party garnered 12 seats.

    Lee Jae-myung, the winner of the election, addressed the victory. As a politician who is always in the headlines of newspapers and whose journey started from a child factory worker to the prime ministership, he is an interesting figure to study. He has been plagued with several scandals, though Korean people chose him to replace the Han Duck soo government, which failed to address inflation and the cost of living crisis. Lee acknowledged that he will work on it. Korean people are showing that they have their own priorities. Conservatism may not be accepted in the face of price hikes.

  • Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Narendra Modi is on a mission to sweep the upcoming Indian general election. He continuously states in rallies that he will secure 400+ seats out of the total 545 seats. Perhaps it is merely an election strategy to ensure the common perception that Modi will continue for a third term, though it’s clear that if Modi wants a third term single-handedly, he has to expand his influence to the southern states, which are still opting for the rival Indian National Congress and its allies.

    When opinion polls and election scientists predict the loss of current seats and anticipate tough fights from states where Modi’s BJP has secured the majority of their seats, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra, they are focusing on other states that traditionally haven’t contributed to the BJP. South India is now in the radar of the BJP. The people of southern states, with different ethnicities and languages compared to the rest of India, always follow different trends. But Modi has proven his winning mindset before and is not backing down. By increasing rallies and setting up thorough election campaigns, Modi is getting ready to reap more seats from the south.

    South India, the region comprising the five states and one union territory, which are Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Puducherry, contributes almost 130 seats out of 545 seats. Every state has different political scenarios, different leaders, and different alliances. The stronghold of the Indian National Congress has the government in Karnataka and Telangana. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the ruling parties are allied with the Indian National Congress. In Andhra Pradesh, a Congress faction, YSR Congress, is in administration, and the only government in alliance with the BJP is in Puducherry.

    Tamil Nadu, known as the paradise of regional parties, has a myriad of parties advocating Tamil nationalism, representing various castes, and fans associations of movie stars. It holds the most number of seats in South India, with 39 seats in the upcoming general election being contested by three alliances. The INDI alliance, comprising the Indian National Congress, Tamil Nationalist Party DMK, Communist parties, and Dalit Party VCK, is at the forefront. The All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance includes some Islamist parties, and the NDA, the BJP-led front, comprises the Vanniyar Caste Party Pattali Makkal Katchi and factions of All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The state gave one or two seats to the BJP in the last elections, and opinion polls suggest they may gain some seats this time, improving upon their previous general election’s record of zero seats. Expectations are for 3-4 seats to be won here, while opinion polls favor the INDI alliance. However, Modi is confident and hardworking, conducting numerous rallies and expecting to secure more seats from Tamil Nadu.

    Karnataka, which has 28 seats, is the only BJP stronghold in South India. Previously, it formed governments, and BJP surprisingly secured 26 seats in the last Indian general election. However, the state assembly election followed by the general election was swept by the Indian National Congress. BJP formed an alliance with the regional party JDS to repeat the victory of the last time and sweep all seats. However, this time, the Congress is putting up a tight fight under a strong state-level leader. It is expected that the BJP-led NDA alliance can secure 15-18 seats out of the 28 available. In a state known for Hindu-Muslim tensions, BJP will definitely use Hindu sentiments to secure more seats.

    In Andhra Pradesh, which contributes 25 seats, there are multi-front fights. The ruling YSR Congress, a faction of Congress, is on one side, while the Indian National Congress is on the other. Additionally, the BJP leads an alliance with the strong regional party TDP and the party of movie star Pawan Kalyan. Like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh has many parties associated with movie stars and caste-based parties. However, as the general election coincides with the state assembly election, the sentiment against the ruling state government largely determines the election results. In the last general election, the YSR Congress party led with 22 seats out of 25, with the rest going to the TDP. But this time, the Indian National Congress and BJP are also contenders. With the alliance of TDP and the Modi factor, BJP is expecting to secure 3-4 seats from Andhra Pradesh.

    Kerala is the state that has never given a Member of Parliament to the BJP. The BJP doesn’t have any significant role in the political landscape of the state, which has 20 seats and is highly divided between the CPIM-led LDF alliance and the INC-led UDF alliance. Even though the BJP has some strongholds in the state, they didn’t secure any seats in the last general election for parliament. Out of the 20 seats, 19 were won by UDF and 1 by LDF, but the subsequent state assembly election was won by LDF. However, with the state facing severe economic struggles and the rise of Islamism, there is hope for the BJP. Narendra Modi has conducted several rallies, and they are expecting to secure more than 4 seats from the state in the changed political landscape.

    Telangana contributes 17 seats to the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). In the upcoming general election, there is expected to be a multi-front fight for these 17 seats. The INC, BJP, and the strong local party BRS, along with many communist and religious parties, are all participating. In the last general election in 2019, BRS secured the highest number of seats with 9, followed by BJP with 4, and then Congress with 3. However, the INC made a comeback following the state assembly election. Currently, the INC holds the advantage in opinion polls, while the BJP is gaining momentum and hopes to capitalize on the collapse of the BRS Party. BJP expects to secure more than 4 seats, and there is a possibility for BJP to capitalize Hindu-Muslim religious tensions.

    Puducherry, the Union Territory, an old French territory, has one seat in the House of Commons, which was won by the INC last time. Then, the BJP-led alliance won the state assembly election, and they are expecting to win the seat by tightening the contest.

    It’s clear that the Indian National Congress has the upper hand in South India. However, the BJP will pose a tough challenge, and the growth of the BJP in the region is evident. They are gradually expanding into more regions and states, with Modi giving importance to the region. Increasing their tally from the current 29 out of 130 seats to more will help them secure additional seats and decrease the number of seats for their prime rival, the INC, as they too expect to gain more seats from the region. Predictions suggest 35 to 40 seats for the BJP in the upcoming general election, and sometimes it may even be more. Modi has proven before that he can work wonders in general elections.

  • Potential Third Term Victory Looms for Modi and BJP

    Potential Third Term Victory Looms for Modi and BJP

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confident in his assertions. He has reiterated in the previous assembly meetings in parliament, the Republic Day ceremony, and numerous rallies that he will undoubtedly win the upcoming election. He has also stated his aim to secure over 400 seats in the House of Commons. This isn’t mere boasting; Modi is acutely aware of the ground realities. Having started his career as a tea seller and grassroots worker, he understands the pulse of the nation.

    A potential third term would pave the way for the BJP to implement its ideology, such as Hindu nationalism, with greater authority. While many express concerns about the potential authoritarianism and one-party state that a third term for Modi could entail, the opposition seems ill-prepared to counter the BJP’s groundwork and ambitions. 

    The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already completed seat distribution among its allies and commenced a significant number of candidate selections for the upcoming election marathon. They are confident in their prospects, buoyed by the BJP’s favorable standing in opinion polls. Even though the aspiration of securing over 400 seats out of the total 545 seems ambitious according to current opinion polls, the BJP has a history of surpassing such predictions. In the last Lok Sabha election in 2019, opinion polls underestimated the BJP’s performance, predicting that only alliances could surpass the 272-mark, yet the BJP single-handedly crossed the 300-seat threshold.

    Expanding into regions where the party traditionally had limited presence, such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and West Bengal, while maintaining dominance in Hindi-speaking states and western India, suggests that the BJP could easily exceed expectations. By positioning strong candidates and allocating seats based on ground surveys and reports, the party is laying extensive groundwork. Indian media’s overwhelming support for Modi and the government is evident, with a focus on celebrating the BJP rather than reporting on common people’s issues. News channels have taken on a quasi-spiritual role, projecting Modi as a spiritual leader and guru, particularly during events like the Ayodhya temple opening ceremony.

    Given the importance of social media in a country with the highest number of smartphone users and mobile connectivity in the world, the BJP’s successful utilization of social media is noteworthy. Their campaigns are saturating Indian cyberspace, further bolstering their electoral strategy.

    The BJP benefits greatly from the weakness of the opposition, particularly the Indian National Congress (INC). While analysts warn of increasing authoritarian tendencies within the BJP, the Indian opposition struggles to compete with Modi, even in media representation. Narendra Modi has openly expressed his goal of achieving a “Congress Mukt Bharat”, aiming to eliminate the main opposition party, the INC, from Indian politics. The INC’s presence in the media and social media platforms has significantly diminished, with their funds frozen due to actions by the tax department. Moreover, notable leaders, including former chief ministers, are defecting to the BJP amidst targeted investigations by the Enforcement Directorate into financial irregularities. This move not only weakens the opposition but also potentially shields those joining the BJP from further scrutiny by the Enforcement Directorate. Alongside these stringent measures against the opposition and the acquisition of media outlets, as well as the expansion of influence over the executive and judiciary, some analysts argue that this trend is leading to the increasing dominance of Modi and the BJP across all spheres of governance.

    Simultaneously, some experts highlight the unpredictability of Indian voters and they argue that opinion polls are pointless. Indian elections are inherently uncertain due to the vast diversity of the electorate, comprising 970 million individuals from various ethnicities, languages, and cultures. With an expected voter turnout of over 60%, the electorate’s highly emotive nature can lead to abrupt shifts in political preferences. Historical events, such as the 1991 general election, where the unforeseen assassination of Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi reshaped the electoral landscape, serve as poignant reminders of this unpredictability. Similarly, the decision by the Vajpayee-led BJP government to call for early elections, despite favorable opinion polls, led to an unexpected mandate for the INC.

    This unpredictability remains a significant factor, offering hope to the opposition until the final polls are concluded. Opposition parties anticipate potential seat losses for the BJP over the course of its ten-year tenure. Additionally, internal conflicts between new BJP leaders who come from other parties  and traditional party figures add an intriguing dimension to the political landscape. The formation of alliances between regional parties and the Congress presents an opportunity to garner diverse support, particularly amidst ongoing issues such as farmer protests, unemployment, and price hikes.

    However, the current dominance of the Indian media, largely funded by BJP-linked business interests, poses a challenge for the opposition. Despite aspirations for a 400-seat victory, the reality remains that the Congress lacks the capacity to diminish the BJP’s majority, touching the crucial 272-mark.

    When Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s inaugural Prime Minister, along with the freedom fighters, embraced democracy in a largely illiterate state, it signified a courageous step forward. Despite facing skepticism and ridicule initially, Nehru diligently fostered a democratic ethos in India. Even amidst criticism, he acknowledged and rewarded journalists and cartoonists for their critiques, showcasing his dedication to democratic principles. However, following Nehru’s era, India experienced a gradual decline in these values, with corruption, dynastic politics, horse-trading, and moral bankruptcy becoming prevalent.

    The BJP, under the leadership of Modi, emerged as a response to the scams and corruption of the previous Congress-led government. Failing to address these issues, Congress paved the way for the BJP’s rise, which now faces an election without many negative factors weighing it down. With its roots in the Hindu nationalist organization RSS, it’s evident that a third term for the BJP would align closely with the RSS’s directives. This third term could potentially redefine India, moving it further away from the principles established by Nehru’s government in 1947.