Tag: Europe

  • Georgia Accelerates Toward Russia with Pro-Kremlin President

    Georgia Accelerates Toward Russia with Pro-Kremlin President

    Democracy and free speech remain intolerable for many governments, who see them as direct threats to their control over the populace and their profitable monopolies on state resources. In their quest to forestall any transfer of power to the people, ruling elites will stop at nothing. These dynamics inevitably breed tension, especially when domestic factions align with opposing global powers. And it is the scenario in Georgia, a small but strategically crucial nation at the juncture of Europe and Asia, where a political crisis is unfolding. Here, a West-leaning, democracy and free speech supporting populace finds itself in an increasingly fraught standoff with a government tethered to Moscow’s influence.

    Georgia’s political landscape is dominated by an entrenched elite, closely intertwined with powerful business magnates—a structure long shaped by Russian dominance and, more recently, tempered by Europe’s growing influence. This dual allegiance has ignited a fierce power struggle, with each side staking a claim to public support. Pro-Russian conservatives find their champion in the ruling Georgian Dream Party, while those resisting the oligarchic nexus are tied to the promise of a European future. After witnessing Ukraine’s struggle, a significant portion of Georgia’s public began favoring closer ties with Europe. However, the Kremlin-linked government, seeking to consolidate power and move closer to Russia, started pushing back. They have rewritten the constitution, held unfair elections, and enacted measures reminiscent of Russian authoritarian practices to silence dissent and retain authority.

    Following constitutional changes and a new framework set by the ruling party’s interests, Georgian lawmakers have chosen Mikheil Kavelashvili as the country’s president. A former professional football player and outspoken critic of the West, Kavelashvili is staunchly pro-Russia. Over the past year, he has repeatedly accused Western intelligence agencies of attempting to drag Georgia into a war with Russia. Under the revised system, Georgia’s president is now selected by a college of electors, comprising members of parliament and local government representatives. Of the 225 electors present, 224 voted for Kavelashvili, who was the sole nominee. His election starkly contrasts with the country’s previous practice of direct presidential elections, further fueling public discontent over Georgia’s democratic backsliding.

    The opposition has declared Saturday’s election invalid and recognizes only Salome Zourabichvili, the sitting president, as Georgia’s legitimate leader. Zourabichvili, a pro-Western figure deeply at odds with the ruling Georgian Dream Party, has refused to step down. She is demanding fresh parliamentary elections, paving the way for a looming constitutional crisis. The October parliamentary elections were widely viewed as heavily rigged, further eroding public trust in the pro-Kremlin government.

    Protests have swept across Tbilisi, with demonstrations planned at over a dozen locations. For the 16th consecutive day, thousands of pro-EU demonstrators have filled the streets, now turning their anger toward the newly nominated president as well. The protests culminated in a massive rally outside parliament, where the crowd rallied behind Salome Zourabichvili. Intensifying her criticism of the government, Zourabichvili denounced its latest actions during a press conference, stating, “What will happen in parliament tomorrow is a parody—an event entirely devoid of legitimacy, unconstitutional, and illegitimate.”

    Georgia is plunging into a significant political crisis as the country finds itself with two presidents after December. Salome Zourabishvili’s refusal to leave office, the opposition’s parliamentary boycott, and ongoing protests have already overshadowed the presidency of her successor, Gia Kavelashvili, likely weakening his position from the outset. The government’s response to Zourabishvili’s defiance following Kavelashvili’s inauguration on December 29 remains uncertain, constrained by widespread public anger.

    Adding to the turmoil, European leaders have thrown their support behind the Georgian opposition, openly rejecting the legitimacy of the recent parliamentary elections and the current parliament. Meanwhile, Washington has intensified its pressure by imposing sanctions on Georgian officials, including visa bans for around 20 individuals accused of undermining democracy, among them key ministers and parliamentarians.

    These developments raise the alarming prospect of Georgia drifting closer to Moscow. The fear is that the country could fall further into Russia’s orbit, effectively becoming another satellite state. As this political standoff deepens, those advocating for democracy face increasing risks of suppression and retaliation.

  • The Politics of Climate Conference

    The Politics of Climate Conference

    There are no longer any doubts about climate change, as its effects are evident to everyone. People’s suffering continues to grow, but climate spending and the politics surrounding it have caused significant division. The global right-wing and those burdened by rising living costs protest the expenses tied to climate initiatives, while the global left and climate activists demand more funding for climate action. As this polarization grows, the United Nations held its annual Climate Change Conference, COP29, in Azerbaijan, a country made up of oil. The conference took place in Baku from November 11 to 22, 2024.

    Unlike previous years, the event failed to generate significant attention. Despite the Azerbaijani government investing substantial oil revenues in PR campaigns, international media provided minimal coverage. The conference lost the global focus it once enjoyed, though it sparked some interesting controversies. The controversy began with the choice of hosts. Last year, Dubai—a wealthy, oil-rich desert hub—hosted the conference. This year, the decision to hold COP29 in Azerbaijan raised eyebrows once again. Azerbaijan, a major oil and gas producer, is also known for its authoritarian governance and widespread corruption. Adding to the controversy, Mukhtar Babayev, a longtime official with Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company SOCAR, served as the president of COP29. These contradictions are glaring, much like LGBTQ+ advocates supporting Muslim rights. The peak of these ironies fuels doubts among the public and erodes trust in global climate efforts. Many accuse these actions of greenwashing, with little positive impact on the climate. Countries and businesses use climate change as a means to generate public opinion, much like how sports-washing works.

    COP29 Chief Executive Elnur Soltanov was secretly recorded discussing potential oil and gas deals during the conference, raising serious concerns about the need for such high-cost events. And EU diplomats criticized Azerbaijan for excluding fossil fuel phase-out from the conference agenda, which focused solely on mitigation. These events led Papua New Guinea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Justin Tkatchenko, to announce a boycott of the summit, calling it a total waste of time.

    Discussions largely focused on climate-related finances. A key agenda item was negotiating the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, which sought to establish a new financial target to support developing nations after 2025, building on the previous $100 billion annual commitment. Proposed solutions included blended finance, which combines public and private investments to boost funding for climate initiatives, and debt-for-nature swaps, allowing countries to redirect debt repayments toward environmental and climate projects. COP29 encouraged global financial institutions and the private sector to increase climate finance and invest in green innovation. 

    Delegates also agreed on rules and established a UN registry to facilitate and track international carbon credit trading. Key points of tension in the negotiations involved the donor base. Developed economies, such as the US and the European Union, argued that resource-rich countries like China and Gulf Cooperation Council nations should automatically contribute. Another point of contention was the share of funding coming from public budgets, with developing countries demanding significant increases in public, non-loan grants. The final $300 billion climate finance agreement stipulates that both public and private sources will provide funding and encourages voluntary contributions from developing countries, including China and Middle Eastern nations.

    The next COP, set to take place in Brazil in 2025, is expected to witness more intense political friction. The United States will have a new president, one who has shown little interest in climate-related issues. This shift could influence major countries, particularly in Europe, where there is significant opposition to spending large amounts of money on climate initiatives. The rise of right-wing movements and the weakening of climate-focused green parties in Europe may further undermine pledges, as they may not come to fruition. Meanwhile, China and India, the world’s growing economies, are unlikely to bear the burden even though they find clear opportunities in the process. As a result, the climate will continue to heat up.

  • China-European Union Trade War Heats Up

    China-European Union Trade War Heats Up

    Europe has finally taken action to shield its market from the influx of cheap products that have devastated its industries. European-made goods have struggled due to fierce competition from high-quality U.S. and Japanese products, as well as the low prices of Chinese goods in the global market. Despite its high purchasing power, Europe has faced challenges in protecting its own domestic market. Consequently, European powerhouses have been overshadowed by producer countries, resulting in the closure of domestic industries, job losses, and deteriorating living conditions. These problems have fueled the rise of far-right movements, which pose a threat to the stability of the European Union.

    Though belated, Europe has started to act to restrict cheap and technologically advanced Chinese products to protect its domestic businesses, launching investigations that could lead to higher tariffs. At the same time, China, the target of Europe’s actions, is facing its own setbacks from declining demand following similar strategies implemented by the U.S. and its allies. In response, China has begun to counter Europe’s actions with its own investigations, mirroring the European Union’s tactics.

    As part of initial measures that could escalate into a broader trade war, Europe is targeting the Chinese government’s subsidies to certain industries, which have resulted in cheap products with strong research and development backing. Chinese-made electric vehicles, popular among European consumers for their low prices, have benefited from these substantial subsidies. After an investigation, the European Commission found that Chinese authorities had provided extensive subsidies to electric vehicle manufacturers at every stage of production, making these cars so artificially cheap that European competitors might eventually be forced to close factories and lay off workers. By the end of October, Chinese carmakers that fail to cooperate with the EU’s investigation into electric vehicles could face tariffs of up to 36.3%, in addition to the existing 10% EU duty on cars.

    For China, this is a significant setback, as the country aspires to achieve global dominance in the electric vehicle (EV) industry. In response, Chinese authorities have initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into European dairy imports. According to the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU, Beijing launched the investigation following a complaint from its dairy industry on July 29, with consultations with the EU taking place on August 14.

    China’s investigation will focus on 20 subsidy programs that support the production of milk, cream, and cheese in eight EU countries, including subsidies for dairy storage, young farmers’ allowances, and supplementary income schemes under the Common Agricultural Policy. The countries targeted in the investigation include Ireland, which receives subsidies for dairy equipment, Austria and Belgium for loan schemes, Italy for livestock insurance and dairy subsidies, Croatia for livestock producer subsidies, Finland for three types of farming support, Romania for livestock subsidies, and the Czech Republic for a subsidy scheme related to farm damage. Of these, Ireland is the largest dairy exporter to China, with €423 million in sales in 2023, including dried milk for infant formula, according to Irish government data.

    China’s commerce ministry announced the investigation on Wednesday, just a day after the European Commission revealed revised duties on Chinese electric vehicles as part of its investigation into what it sees as artificially cheap cars that threaten jobs in Europe’s automotive industry.

    The EU Chamber of Commerce in China remarked that the investigation was expected following the EU’s actions against Chinese electric vehicle exports. It seems more investigations are on the horizon, as EU officials have also launched separate anti-dumping inquiries into other renewable industries, such as Chinese-made solar panels and wind turbines. This week, EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, stressed the need to avoid a systemic confrontation with China, though he acknowledged that a trade war might be inevitable. In response, Beijing has initiated retaliatory investigations into politically sensitive European imports like pork and cognac. As with any trade war, both sides are likely to suffer, but China may be the most affected, given the current trade balance, which favors China.

  • Does Georgia Help Russia Bypass Sanctions?

    Does Georgia Help Russia Bypass Sanctions?

    It is dubious that, while people in Georgia aspire to European integration, politicians are not taking significant action toward this goal. Instead, they are drafting laws like the foreign agents bill, which make the country increasingly authoritarian and similar to Russia in terms of governance and media control. This situation is largely attributed to the significant business ties between Georgian politicians, businesspeople, and their Russian counterparts. Although Georgia was expected to align with Ukraine, given its own loss of substantial territory to Russia in the 2008 war, it is now accused of circumventing Western sanctions imposed due to Russia’s war with Ukraine – an accusation that could jeopardize Georgia’s European aspirations.

    The investigative outlet iFact recently published an article revealing troubling patterns. Journalists posing as parties interested in shipping dual-use goods to Russia found that sending items like drones and computer processors faced few obstacles. The report acknowledged existing inspection protocols designed to prevent illicit goods from crossing the Georgia-Russia border but pointed out that the effectiveness and thoroughness of these checks can vary. Moreover, couriers could potentially bypass Georgian restrictions by routing goods through Azerbaijan, Armenia, or Central Asian countries before reaching Russia. This pattern suggests that such circumvention is unlikely to occur without some level of cooperation from Georgian authorities.

    Georgian government officials have yet to directly address the report published earlier this month. Instead, their focus has shifted to other allegations linking them to Russia. Recently, the ruling Georgia Dream party has been preoccupied with damage control following an August 9 OCCRP investigation into the property holdings of Honorary Chairman Bidzina Ivanishvili’s family in Russia. Georgia’s Revenue Service has rejected the report, claiming that this is not the first instance of investigative journalists making baseless accusations about uncontrollable entry of sanctioned goods into Georgia and their subsequent export to Russia. Georgian Dream Party leaders have previously denied allegations that Georgia facilitates the shipping of sanctioned goods to Russia, citing a lack of conclusive evidence. Former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili asserted in June 2023 that the government is absolutely transparent and declared with full responsibility that no evidence has been presented showing that Georgia has helped anyone evade sanctions. However, this claim remains hard to believe.

    Georgia has not joined Western nations in sanctioning Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, citing concerns that such measures would severely impact its economy. Businesses often exploit loopholes to circumvent sanctions, a tactic historically common through rerouting trade via allied or neighboring countries. Georgia has been accused of such practices, along with other countries close to Russia like Kyrgyzstan, despite its recent protests against Russia and aspirations for EU membership. 

    Georgian leaders insist that the country is not being used to bypass Western sanctions. However, dual-use goods, such as certain mechanical and electronic components, are among Georgian exports to Russia, despite limited production capacity in Georgia. iFact’s report suggests that the presence of these goods indicates exploitation of legal loopholes and logistical routes to support Russia’s war effort. While some argue that sanctions circumvention is minimal, as shown by trade data, and that stricter restrictions could harm Georgia’s economy, others believe that Georgian authorities, closely linked with Russia, are deceiving both Western nations and their own citizens for business interests.

  • What Does the European Parliament Election Mean for Asia?

    What Does the European Parliament Election Mean for Asia?

    An important election is underway in Europe for the next European Parliament. Voting is taking place in all 27 nations of the European Union (EU), with polling set to conclude on Sunday. Approximately 373 million people across Europe are participating in the election to choose 720 members of the Parliament. This election will be crucial in shaping the priorities and political trajectory of the influential European Union for the next five years. The EU is currently dealing with pressing issues such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as challenges related to immigration and climate change. Polls suggest that hard-right parties are expected to make significant gains in several countries, a development that could have profound long-term implications for the continent. The world’s largest multi-country election, involving influential countries like France and Germany, will also impact global politics. Furthermore, many issues affecting Asia are also being discussed in the election campaigns.

    The European Parliament is the only EU institution where representatives are directly elected, and its Members of Parliament pass laws that are applied across all member states. For any legislation to be implemented, both the Council and the Parliament must agree. The Parliament also has ultimate approval over the funds allocated in the EU budget. The European Parliament is often the final authority on major policy issues such as the budget, trade, and sanctions on foreign nationals. It can also put major international objectives on hold, in the interest of the bloc.

    There are seven main groupings in the European Parliament, ranging from the extremes of the far right to the far left. The two dominant groupings are the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). Because of proportional representation, no single group holds a majority, necessitating the formation of broad coalitions to accomplish tasks in Parliament. While these two parties are expected to be the largest after the elections, all eyes are on the other main right-wing groups: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the hard-right, populist Identity and Democracy (ID). Once all the votes have been counted, each national political party will be assigned a number of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) relative to their vote share. It is up to the member states to determine how these seats are allocated. Full results are expected on Monday.

    The European market is crucial for Asian countries, making this election significant in light of the ongoing trade war with tariffs and other regulations. The trade conflict that began between the USA and China has now extended to Europe. The European market is a significant outlet for Chinese production, and additional regulations on Chinese goods will undoubtedly impact the Chinese economy and potentially the broader Asian economy as well. Right-wing groups are concerned about the loss of production to China and are advocating for more aggressive actions against market penetration by Chinese products. The push from Chinese companies in the electric vehicle (EV) market is being scrutinized by Parliament, and China is awaiting the results to gauge future trade laws against them. There is also a plan to find alternatives to China, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, and it is expected that the European Parliament will pursue this.

    As there are many migrants from Asia to Europe, both legal and illegal, this causes concern among right-wing groups, who frequently criticize current immigration laws. Therefore, the European Parliament election results are important for shaping future immigration policies, with expectations of tighter immigration controls. The current immigration system by the EU is contributing to the rapid development of far-right politics in Europe. Climate change is a key issue in the election campaigns. While left and green parties are advocating for more stringent emission restrictions, it is expected that the right-wing will gain ground in this election and work towards rolling back climate policies. This could indirectly benefit the Asian economy, as climate change discussions and restrictions have often targeted countries like China, India, and oil producers in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in Gaza will also be influenced by the European Parliament election. The Gaza war is currently supported by many European countries, but the European Union does not intervene much. As the conflict continues, many believe that Europe needs to take a move. The upcoming parliament may not intervene in the conflict, given that right-wing parties generally support Israel’s actions. The parliament’s approach to expanding European influence into the Caucasus will also be closely monitored, as it could significantly impact the power dynamics in Asia. 

    It is expected that the European election trend will also influence the elections in member states. A surge of far-right influence is anticipated in Europe’s upcoming elections, including in France. If they perform well in the European Parliament election, it could herald a golden age of far-right politics in Europe. This would not only influence and shape the European Union and the European continent but also have repercussions across all continents. Asia is likely to bear the brunt, especially as tensions rise between the superpowers.

  • Why Is GCC Not Evolving Like The European Union?

    Why Is GCC Not Evolving Like The European Union?

    While countries rapidly raise tariffs and sanctions, markets have become even more valuable. Forming a stable market with shared interests is seen as the solution to these increasing trade wars. The European Union, with its single market formed by the economic union, serves as a role model even in the most challenging times for international trade. Forming unified markets can bind nations together and provide more opportunities. This is evident in the growing desire to join the European Union, which continues to expand into new regions, leading them all towards economic prosperity. Together, they can compete with economic giants with massive markets like the United States and China. By taking the European Union as a model, many economic cooperation are evolving now. The Gulf countries, who formed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), are among them. Even though they started decades ago and began implementing measures like a single visa and free border, they are still far away from forming a single market and creating a strong body like the European Union.

    Challenges make countries cooperate. After the disastrous World War and the subsequent Cold War, Europe collapsed, and outsiders became prominent decision-makers in the region. To overcome these challenges, the long-time rivals of Europe began considering European cooperation by raising European identity and past European glory; eventually, this move led to the formation of the European Union and the Single European Market. They grew economically together and have now become a powerful entity capable of negotiations. The European Union, the multinational economic and political union comprising 27 European member states and is further expanding to more countries. The cooperation started with the Customs Union and then grew to establish a strong internal single market following a standardized legal framework and legislation applicable to member states. The States already joined, and Any state wishing to join the EU must agree to its policies, which ensure the free movement of people, goods, services, and capital within this “Pan-modern State”. Consequently, passport controls have been abolished at the borders within the EU. Among the European member states, twenty have formed a central bank and adopted a single currency, the Euro, which is one of the most valuable currencies now. While the European Union is progressing in economic terms, they are also developing foreign and security policies and agreements that benefit all member states. The EU maintains permanent diplomatic missions worldwide and has representatives in key organizations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and groups like the G7 and G20.With increasing influence and acceptability, many consider the European Union a superpower, demonstrating lobbying capacity through their combined strength. 

    Some Arab think tanks frequently accused the EU, as a Christian Union reminiscent of Medieval Europe who fought with Muslim countries, citing the delayed entry of Turkey and Albania despite them applying years ago. They frequently promote the establishment of a counter-Arab union that would grow into a strong economic union and possibly divide the wealth of nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with less wealthy surrounding Arab states.  In the same way that France and Germany help the poorer European nations. Many experts think that such a union may oppose the diverse interests of the area  and create an Islamic superpower.  The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional political and economic union formed in 1981, comprises Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. It is the closest multinational intergovernmental body resembling the EU and one of the first to mimic it. Discussions have taken place regarding the potential future membership of Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen. The GCC could further expand to include many Islamic countries in Asia and Africa. While the GCC has not advanced as cohesively as the EU, in earlier times, Saudi Arabia proposed transforming the GCC into a Gulf Union similar to the European Union, with tighter economic, political, and military coordination. However, objections arose from other countries due to their disapproval of leadership. And all member countries prioritized construction projects that stunning the world and hosting the glamorous events over regional interests. It’s evident that the leaders hindered the evolution of the GCC akin to the EU. While a Customs Union was established in January 2003, it has yet to thrive like the EU’s single market. The idea of a common currency also faltered due to conflicts of interest. UAE, Oman announced it would not meet the target date for a common currency, Due to the decision to locate the central bank for the monetary union in Riyadh instead of the UAE. If it was realized, the GCC monetary union would rank as the second-largest supranational monetary union in the world by GDP. It’s sure the GCC has high potential like the EU. But there are not many politicians capable in GCC.

    The Gulf region boasts some of the fastest-growing economies in the world and the highest GDP per capita. This growth is largely due to a surge in oil and natural gas revenues, combined with a construction and investment boom, and an increase in the hospitality business, all supported by decades of accumulated petroleum wealth. While the Middle East faces numerous issues, ranging from the Palestine conflict to increasing foreign influences, the idea of more cooperation between the countries evolving as a European Union-like body is indeed plausible for the GCC. However, the countries do not appear inclined to set aside individual interests in favor of collective growth. If the GCC formed an Arabian superpower, capable of successfully intervening in Middle Eastern issues, including the Palestine conflict, but the lack of willingness to cooperate remains a curse for Arab countries, often relegating them to mere satellites of powerful countries.

  • How will Xi’s visit to Hungary influence Europe?

    How will Xi’s visit to Hungary influence Europe?

    Hungary, the central European state, which frequently criticizes Europe and maintains warm relations with Russia, was said to be a Trojan horse to Europe by international media. The country, with a conservative government under the leadership of Viktor Orban, has kept a closer relationship with Putin than with any other western leaders. Many expect this country will join the pole under the leadership of China and Russia. Both Chinese and Russian governments are keen to maintain their relationship with Hungary, their sole ally in the European Union. China, who is losing the European market gradually, is investing a lot of money in Hungary to keep their business in the European market through Hungary. Many officials from both countries are flying in both directions to advance this objective. Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hungary, and it is considered to further bolster the relationship between China and Hungary, strengthening their economic collaboration, which leaves many doubts in the European union.

    Xi’s visit to Hungary is part of the recently concluded Eurotrip, which was his first European tour in five years. Xi arrived in Hungary late on Wednesday after stops in Serbia and France, and he was given a ceremonial welcome by Hungary’s president, Tamás Sulyok, at Buda Castle in Budapest. Xi was also met by the controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the airport. The Hungarian prime minister, the EU’s longest-serving leader, has sought to deepen ties with Beijing and Moscow and blocked EU motions criticizing China’s human rights abuses. After their meeting, the Chinese state media agency Xinhua reported that China and Hungary had decided to elevate their ties to an “All-weather comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era”. Orbán mentioned that the two countries were planning to broaden their collaboration across all aspects, including the nuclear industry. In a major departure from the European mainstream, the Hungarian prime minister said he supported China’s “Peace Plan” for Ukraine. While Western leaders have criticized the Chinese peace plan, known as the 12-point plan, published in 2023, because it does not call on Russia to withdraw its forces or return territory, the biggest demand of Ukraine and Europe.

    The rapport between Europe and China has significantly worsened in recent years. In 2019, the EU labeled China as “A Systemic Rival,” and just last year, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized the necessity for Europe to “De-risk” its ties with Beijing. This involves, in part, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains. It’s visible that the trends of European countries withdrawing from Chinese investment, and Europe is said to be working to shift the global manufacturing hub from China. The increasing calls for “Make in Europe” were disrupted by China and their “Unfair” market strategies, including subsidies. European agencies are conducting investigations against Chinese businesses, and the relationship between Europe and China is at an all-time low in the 21st century. However, Hungary, which is marking 75 years of diplomatic relations with Beijing, has distanced itself from the EU strategy. They continue their warm relationship with China and keep their doors open for Chinese business. In return, the central European country has received billions in Chinese investment and hosts Huawei’s largest base outside China. BYD, a prominent Chinese automaker, is preparing to inaugurate its first production line for battery-powered cars in Europe, located in Szeged, Hungary. This initiative presents a considerable challenge for European companies operating at the core of Europe. Interestingly, one of the main causes for dispute between China and Europe is China’s interest in the European EV market, which can be dominated by the cheap EV cars of China. According to statements reported by China’s state news agency, Xinhua, Xi declared that the relationship between China and Hungary is now at its strongest point in history.

    The countries chosen for Xi’s Eurotrip are interesting. France has a neutral relationship with China, while Serbia and Hungary, two European countries, have strong relationships with China. This proves the political importance of the trip. Serbia has long supported China’s claim on Taiwan and has Beijing’s support for its claim to Kosovo. Although Serbia is not a member of the European Union and doesn’t have much influence in the European market, the agreements with the European Union’s member, Hungary, will impact European politics and the European market. Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, has stated that 16-18 cooperation agreements would be signed during Xi’s visit, one of which could be a large-scale infrastructure scheme within China’s vast Belt and Road project. These agreements will further strengthen the relationship and maintain China’s ties with Europe and their foothold in the European market.

  • Is Armenia’s Defense Strategy Changing with US Military Aid?

    Is Armenia’s Defense Strategy Changing with US Military Aid?

    Armenia was humiliated when Azerbaijan captured the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which had long been under the rule of Armenian Christians. It’s a historical rivalry between these former Soviet republics, but this time Armenia’s anger at the loss in the war was directed towards their Christian brother Russia, which provided military, economic, and political assistance to Armenia but considered staying neutral or allowing the takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan. The Armenian government accepted defeat and chose not to make comments against it, despite some protests and anger towards Russia. There was a general perception in Yerevan that the Kremlin had not lived up to its security obligations to Armenia. However, people with deep ties to Russia or those in geopolitically isolated situations refrained from making further protests against Russia.

    But Armenians are not only in Modern Armenia; they have a larger population in the United States and Western countries than in Armenia itself. They are angry. They believe Russia preferred richer Azerbaijan and strategically important Turkey and their interests over Armenia. They believe it’s time to shift their allegiance from Russia to the West. And when Russia weakens or is perceived as weak, Armenian politicians are removing the redline they aspire to join in Europe, and they have won some impressive military assistance from the Eagle, the United States.

    The European Union and the United States swiftly responded to Armenian overtures for closer security and economic ties. In early April, they jointly proposed an assistance package totaling over $350 million for Yerevan. Following this initiative, US Ambassador to Armenia Kristina Kvien stated that the relationship between the US and Armenia is expanding. She noted that Washington’s engagement with Yerevan has broadened and deepened across various sectors over the past year, including military cooperation. Kvien highlighted significant developments in this area, such as the joint US-Armenian military exercises held in early September in Armenia. Additionally, she mentioned plans for an American military advisor to collaborate with the Armenian Defense Ministry to implement reforms aimed at enhancing planning and operational standards to modern levels. This is enough to consider Europe’s interest is expanding to Armenia and the Russosphere is shrinking and Armenia leading to deep trouble. Ukraine’s desire to join NATO is perceived as motivation for Russia’s war on the nation. 

    Though Ambassador Kvien echoed they don’t have plans to disrespect Relationship with Russia , emphasizing that US assistance to Armenia does not come with a condition to sever ties with Russia. She highlighted the importance of having multiple allies and trade partners for Armenia’s strength and resilience, stating that diversification, rather than exclusion, is the goal. However, it’s evident that if Armenia strengthens its ties with the United States or Europe, it could strain its relationship with Russia, given the historical tensions between these countries. And Russia is already concerned about the United States growing interest in the former soviet republics. Russia and Azerbaijan responded strongly to the EU-US aid package announced on April 5th for Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed concerns in the Armenian parliament by emphasizing increased economic and security cooperation with the West.

    The possibility that the United States was going to provide significant military support to Armenia seemed unthinkable just a few years ago. However, situations have changed, and Washington is moving cautiously in its efforts to remove a geopolitical red line in the Caucasus, painted by the Soviet Union. While Russia and Iran will likely face increased confrontation with the expanding Eurosphere in the Caucasus, the region will become more unstable. The two spheres are evolving in this tiny region, with Georgia, Armenia, and Europe on one side, and Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan on the other side. Turkey’s involvement will only add complexity to the situation.

  • How The New Foreign Agents Bill Affects Georgia’s European Dreams

    How The New Foreign Agents Bill Affects Georgia’s European Dreams

    Georgia, a southern Caucasian country geographically located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, is one of the latest candidate members of the European Union. The country, which was long under the Soviet Union and is the birthplace of the famous Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, is now joining the pro-Europe movement in Eastern Europe. Georgia suffered humiliation during the war against Russia in 2008, resulting in the loss of territory, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Doubt among people towards Russia is further exacerbated in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Armenia’s humiliation in the war with Azerbaijan. From the protests in support of Ukraine to the recent celebration of Euro qualification, events have served as venues for pro-European sentiment. However, the government of Georgia and several prominent leaders are not willing to break away from their Soviet and pro-Russian past. The Georgian parliament recently passed a new Foreign Agents bill that highly resembles or mirrors Russia’s democratic bill aimed at restricting people from accessing information. During the Soviet era, this was one way of keeping knowledge under government control. But, of course, this has dealt a significant blow to this West Asian nation’s path to the European Union.

    Georgian lawmakers’ passing of a controversial Foreign agents bill, igniting fresh street protests. The ruling Georgian Dream party, which has a majority in the parliament ,voted 78 to 25 to advance the draft of Foreign Agents bill for further debate. Thousands of people gathered in front of the Georgian parliament building in Tbilisi, causing traffic disruptions on the capital city’s main road. Opposition to the legislation wasn’t confined to the streets; even the country’s president spoke out against it. Georgia’s president, Salome Zurabishvili, who is at odds with the ruling party, condemned the move as “Against the will of the population”. The proposed law, if adopted, would require any independent media outlet or NGO receiving more than 20 percent of its financing from abroad to register as an “Organization pursuing the interests of a foreign power”. This represents a departure from last year’s bill, which used the term “Agent of foreign influence”. Following widespread protests last year, the ruling party was compelled to rescind the similar bill.

    The law contradicts the democratic reforms that the EU asserts Tbilisi must enact to progress on its path to EU membership. The EU has previously implored Tbilisi not to proceed with the Foreign agents bill. “The draft law on transparency of foreign influence is not aligned with Georgia’s EU aspirations and its accession trajectory”, remarked European Council President Charles Michel on Tuesday, echoing Brussels’ criticism of the bill. Furthermore, he emphasized that instead of bringing Georgia closer to the EU, the draft bill would distance it. He continued to express that the rights to freedom of expression and association would be directly threatened by the new law. Last December, the EU granted Georgia official candidate status but stipulated that Tbilisi must reform its judicial and electoral systems, diminish political polarization, enhance press freedom, and limit the influence of oligarchs before membership negotiations can commence formally. But it looks like Georgia is working against the directions.

    Opposition parties and civil society activists argue that the mechanism for this takeover is being facilitated by Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream. Despite ostensibly seeking EU membership, the party is seen to be aligning more closely with Moscow. Video footage was trending in which the head of the parliamentary group of the ruling Georgian Dream party and a major supporter of the Foreign Agents Bill,  was punched in the face by opposition MP Aleko Elisashvili while delivering a speech from the dispatch box. Leading players in Georgia’s national men’s football team, the new national heroes, have also voiced their support from the public. They have backed mass protests sparked by a Foreign agents bill criticized for mirroring a repressive Russian law. They wrote: “Georgia’s path is to Europe. The European way unites us!! Forward to Europe!! Peace to Georgia” .

    Georgia, which was formerly regarded as spearheading the democratic transition among the former Soviet states, has come under fire recently for what is thought to be a democratic regression. This further adds to the doubts for the leaders of Georgia, as they risk their dreams of joining the euro by pushing for Russian-type laws. In addition to losing territory, they are maintaining friendlier relations with Russia. As a former Soviet republic, Georgia has sought for years to deepen relations with the West, but the current ruling party is accused of attempting to steer the Black Sea nation towards closer ties with Russia.