Tag: France

  • Decoding the Flourishing India-France Affair

    Decoding the Flourishing India-France Affair

    France once sailed in step with Britain, Spain, and Portugal, its ambitions stretching as far as the winds would carry its ships. It fought on distant shores, its banners raised in the great imperial struggle that shaped the modern world. From the Americas to Asia—including in India, where it vied with Britain for influence—France played its part in the violent theater of empire, but history had other plans. In the end, it yielded to Britain, its colonial reach eclipsed as the English secured their grip on global power.

    The British Empire, in time, grew old, its influence fraying at the edges, and from its shadow emerged a new master of the world—the United States. France, ever watchful, remained an ally of the West but never quite relinquished its longing for distinction. In partnership with Germany, it imagined a Europe unshackled from Anglo-American dominance, a world where Paris and Berlin, not Washington and London, set the terms. But as the English-speaking nations tightened their bonds, France found itself seeking new avenues for influence.

    Now, with nationalist fervor stirring on both sides of the Atlantic, France is once again in search of a role, a place in the shifting global order. It needs a partner—one formidable enough to shape the world alongside it, yet not so powerful as to cast it into the shadows. And so, France is turning to India. India-France relations are  evolving into a great partnership rooted in shared interests. As India grows wary of the deepening China-Russia partnership and faces limitations in its ties with the U.S., it, too, seeks a reliable ally. With defense, trade, and technological cooperation at the forefront, the India-France relationship is emerging as a key pillar of global diplomacy. 

    While India and France have long shared a strategic partnership, their ties are now reaching new heights. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to France underscored this deepening relationship, culminating in a stop at the Mediterranean port city of Marseille—an entry point that French President Emmanuel Macron envisions as Europe’s gateway to a future shaped by the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

    Announced at the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, IMEC is a planned railway and maritime corridor designed to strengthen trade between India and Europe via Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The initiative has been framed as a potential alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and was championed by the U.S. under former President Joe Biden. France, Italy, and Germany joined India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE as co-signatories, marking a significant step in Europe’s engagement with this new connectivity project.

    But for France, IMEC is more than just a trade corridor—it is an opportunity to revive its long-standing ambitions of expanding France-India trade. Historically, France saw India as a vital market and resource hub, but its aspirations were overshadowed by Britain, which secured dominance during the colonial era. Now, as France seeks to reassert its global relevance, its engagement with India has taken on a new strategic urgency, positioning India-France relations at the heart of its economic and geopolitical agenda.

    Macron emphasized that Marseille could serve as the main entry point for the European market, describing IMEC as a significant catalyst for concrete projects and investment. During his visit to Marseille, Prime Minister Modi attended a presentation by the CMA CGM Group, a French shipping and logistics giant eager to play a key role in making IMEC a reality. Modi stated on social media that as India expands its maritime and trade networks, collaborations with industry leaders will be essential in strengthening connectivity, supply chains, and economic growth. Recognizing the project’s significance, Macron had already appointed a special IMEC envoy last year to shape France’s role in the initiative.

    For India, Russia remains its most trusted partner, with deep ties spanning trade and defense. However, India’s concerns are growing as Russia strengthens its relationship with China. There is a fear that as Russia becomes more dependent on Beijing, China could dominate the partnership, potentially sidelining India. Given the already strained India-China relationship, such a shift could disrupt India’s access to critical Russian defense supplies and other essential imports.

    To mitigate this risk, India is actively diversifying its strategic partnerships and looking westward. France has emerged as a natural choice, offering advanced military technology and ammunition without the geopolitical constraints often imposed by the U.S. and Britain. Additionally, India sees France as a key partner in strengthening supply chains and securing greater access to European markets.

    India is set to acquire 26 French-made Rafale fighter jets, adding to the 33 already in service, while talks are underway for the purchase of three more Scorpene submarines, complementing the six previously acquired by the Indian Navy. These defense deals, worth approximately €10.6 billion, underscore the growing strategic alignment between the two nations. But France’s ambitions extend beyond defense—it sees India as a vital partner in shaping a world increasingly defined by the China-Russia axis and the U.S.-led order. For India, forging closer ties with France provides a powerful counterbalance, offering an ally beyond the dominant geopolitical blocs. With shared interests and mutual gains at play, this partnership is transforming into something deeper—a strategic alliance with the allure of a grand geopolitical romance.

  • Why Doesn’t the Islamic World Have a Superpower to Challenge Israel?

    Why Doesn’t the Islamic World Have a Superpower to Challenge Israel?

    The conflict between Muslims and Jews has historical roots extending over centuries, primarily driven by religious differences rather than just territorial disputes. This is why the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict attracts worldwide attention and involves Muslims and Jews globally. Social media is abuzz with propaganda from both sides. However, on the ground, Israel has a significant advantage as a sovereign state with advanced project management, while Hamas, which governs Gaza and initiated the fresh wave of conflict with terrorist attacks in Israel, finds itself on the defensive with only weakened support from Iran. The conflict appears to be heavily skewed in favor of one side, with the Hamas side suffering greatly.

    In terms of international politics, Israel receives support from superpowers like the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, while countries like Russia, China, and India maintain a more neutral stance. This support provides Israel with a substantial advantage. On the other hand, Hamas and Gaza mainly receive backing from Iran, whose capabilities are in question. This raises the question: why are there no superpowers in the Arab or Muslim world capable of challenging Israel?

    The answer lies in U.S. supremacy in a unipolar world. Although there is widespread anger and calls for solidarity with Hamas across the Islamic world, which stretches from Morocco to Indonesia, these are largely limited to public statements. This situation represents a clear victory for U.S. diplomacy, which has either aligned powerful countries with U.S. interests or severely weakened others. A powerful or superpower country typically has strong leadership, economic influence, political influence, strong international alliances, and a strong military, but few countries in the Islamic world possess all these features combined. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey are considered powerful countries within the Islamic world today, but they are all aligned with the United States. Turkey is a NATO member with tight ties to the U.S., while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are highly reliant on business with the U.S., and their leadership maintains strong connections with U.S. diplomats. They also have military defense pacts with the U.S. Qatar, one of the wealthiest Islamic countries, also maintains a close relationship with the U.S. Despite their connections with Islamist leaders and organizations, and their roles in mediating with groups like Hamas and the Taliban.

    All the countries that previously challenged Israel are now weakened and humbled by U.S. strategies and diplomacy. Egypt, home to the largest army in the Middle East and the leader of last century’s Arab movements against Israel, along with Libya, Iraq, and Syria – countries that once challenged Israel—have lost the leadership capable of making such decisions. They are experiencing severe economic decline and face significant domestic challenges. Now, it seems that the Islamic Republic of Iran is currently the only major power from the Muslim world still challenging Israel. However, Iran has also been economically weakened by strong U.S. sanctions and faces serious domestic issues. Iran has been stunned and humbled by Israel through severe attacks. While Iran has vowed revenge, it has not taken any significant actions that are visibly effective. Nonetheless, Iran has not completely withdrawn from its ideological commitment to opposing Israel, unlike other states. Iran continues to fund organizations fighting against Israel, and Qatar is also reported to be providing support. Despite these efforts, no one is currently able to effectively challenge Israel, highlighting the weakness of the Islamic world outside of its elaborate organizations.

    As Israel is not ready for a truce, it seems likely that Gaza will be systematically annexed by Israel. This outcome appears inevitable. The stance of Islamic countries, which avoids a regional war, may bring peace, but it is clear that the position of Muslim governments does not reflect the sentiment of their populations. This could lead to a revival of terrorist organizations like ISIS in the Islamic world, which would bring more challenges in the region.

  • Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    NATO, one of the most successful international military collaborations, has helped Europe and the United States defend against communism and the Soviet Union, maintaining a stalemate in Europe and avoiding a possible third world war. Its importance in bringing peace to Europe is undeniable, even though the left and anti-war groups may disagree. While the Soviet Union ended, the might of Russia has kept NATO alive. However, Russia has proven not to be a significant threat to NATO, and the United States now sees the primary threat coming from Asia. The continent is on a journey back to prominence, with Communist China, the world’s second-biggest economy, along with its communist allies and Russia, deciding to challenge the United States and its influence. The United States recognizes these risks and is shifting its focus from the Atlantic to East Asia, strengthening military relationships with Asian countries. 

    The bilateral military relationships that the United States maintains with countries in the region are slowly evolving into regional ones. Although no official multilateral military organization like NATO has been created, political scientists believe such a coalition is already in effect in East Asia. North Korea, a communist ally of China, has no doubts about this development. North Korean state media have connected it to a recent joint military exercise by South Korea, Japan, and the US, claiming that these drills demonstrate that the relationship among the three countries has evolved into “The Asian version of NATO”.

    The three countries recently launched large-scale joint military drills near China, called “Freedom Edge”, involving navy destroyers, fighter jets, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. These exercises aim to enhance defenses against missiles, submarines, and air attacks. Conceived at the three-way summit at Camp David last year, the exercise is designed to strengthen military cooperation amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula due to North Korea’s weapons testing and increasing military ties among Russia, North Korea, and China. Thus, the joint exercise’s mission extends beyond North Korea to include China and Russia.

    North Korea’s foreign ministry declared that Pyongyang would not overlook the strengthening of a US-led military bloc and would safeguard regional peace with an aggressive and overwhelming response, according to the KCNA news agency, on Sunday. It is certain that the Chinese government will take note of this development, especially given the increasing number of joint military exercises in the water near China and the disputed South China Sea, which China considers crucial.

    According to political analysts, beyond merely connecting allied countries in the region to NATO, the US has cultivated a group of nations capable of forming an inter-military collaboration in Asia similar to NATO. The United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and Singapore all fall under US military security in the region, effectively countering China’s influence. For more effective cooperation, a NATO-like body with a secretariat and other administrative structures could be established by the US soon. However, cost remains a significant issue, as there is already criticism from US citizens regarding US spending on NATO, while other member countries contribute less. It is clear that if the Soviet Union was the primary threat last century, China is seen as the primary threat to the United States in this century. Taming China will likely be a priority for the US despite spending issues in the coming decades.

    So, it’s not only North Korea’s comments; the United States is likely to move in this direction to prevent potential aggression from China and North Korea in the region. The rapid movements from the US side, including numerous diplomatic talks, military exercises, and weapons trade agreements, all indicate this. Given the failure of SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization), a US initiative modeled after NATO in Asia, due to disagreements among members, adding new members will likely involve close scrutiny and consideration of their importance.

    It will be interesting to see how this process progresses, especially since Chinese investments are significant in Asian countries, and the United States is expected to engage with them. Many Asian countries, which lean toward authoritarianism, may not prefer to align with the US if it means cutting ties with the Russia-China alliance. Only if an aggressive China emerges will a NATO-level multinational inter-military collaboration spanning vast regions be smoothly established.