Germany, having lost momentum in international politics and economics, is also joining the race for Central Asia’s abundant and untapped natural resources. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is currently visiting Central Asia, a region highly sought after by global powers – from the United States to Japan – for its rich mineral and natural gas reserves, now more accessible as Russian influence wanes. While the Germany-backed European Union is working to strengthen ties, Germany has its own interests, particularly in securing natural gas imports. The ban on Russian gas has severely impacted Germany, and continuing on this trajectory will further weaken its already struggling economy. Accessing Central Asia’s resources could help Germany regain its lost momentum and global standing.
During Scholz’s three-day visit, which included a bilateral meeting and the second Germany-Central Asia summit, the five Central Asian heads of state, now acting as a bloc, gathered in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and discuss expanding trade between the West and Central Asia. Although no specific deals were announced, the atmosphere was positive, with all parties expressing optimism for future agreements. Scholz emphasized that exchanges between Central Asia and Germany had never been closer and were steadily increasing.
Central Asian leaders conveyed a clear message that mutual benefits would be essential for cooperation. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the host of the meeting, reinforced this sentiment, noting that the exchange of views demonstrated a strong mutual interest in deepening ties. Tokayev provided a rough outline for future trade relations, indicating that Kazakhstan and other regional states were eager to assist Germany and the EU with energy needs. However, Central Asia expects more than just financial compensation in return for its energy exports.
Describing Germany as a global leader in economic and technological innovation, Tokayev expressed that Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states aim to leverage German expertise to advance the localization of production and create high-value products. He highlighted several economic sectors that could benefit from German technology transfers, including finance, agriculture, transit logistics, and information technology. Tokayev also emphasized Kazakhstan’s interest in German expertise and investment to support Central Asia’s green energy initiatives. He specifically mentioned a collaborative project involving Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to develop solar and wind power plants for exporting electricity to the EU. Tokayev subtly suggested that Germany consider participating in this strategic project. It seems that Central Asian countries are firm in their demands for compensation in exchange for their resources. For Germany, securing affordable gas is now a critical priority.
Before visiting Kazakhstan, Scholz stopped in Uzbekistan, where his discussions in Samarkand with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev were similarly governed by a mutual benefit approach. The main outcome was a politically strategic agreement allowing Germany to send potential Afghan migrants to Uzbekistan for eventual repatriation to Afghanistan. In return, Berlin agreed to accept skilled Uzbek workers to fill job vacancies in Germany. For Scholz, this agreement demonstrates that his beleaguered Social Democrat-led government is addressing domestic migration issues. Public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of migration has eroded support for his coalition and was a significant factor in the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party’s strong performance in recent state elections.
The deal is also a notable achievement for Mirziyoyev, whose administration aims to transition Uzbekistan’s economy from raw material production to finished goods manufacturing. As part of this economic transformation, the government is restructuring the labor market and labor migration policies to create more opportunities for skilled workers abroad. And If the Taliban agrees to accept Afghan nationals sent from Germany to Uzbekistan, it could showcase their ability to act as a responsible international actor, potentially supporting their efforts to legitimize their rule.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its failure to meet its objectives, Central Asian states have gained greater confidence in their negotiations with other global actors. Alongside traditional partners like Russia and China, leading figures from the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Turkey, and the Middle East are now engaging with Central Asia. They are discussing initiatives aimed at boosting the economies of both sides and influencing the region’s political landscape.
If Germany successfully collaborates with Central Asia and begins importing natural gas from the region, it would represent a significant setback for Russia. Given Russia’s ongoing political influence in Central Asia, such a shift could lead to disruptions and political unrest. Other countries may seize this opportunity to advance their own interests. Thus, while new partnerships in Central Asia present both risks and opportunities, Germany stands to gain significant benefits from its involvement in the region.
