Tag: India

  • Why Is The Pakistan-Afghanistan Relationship In Crisis?

    Why Is The Pakistan-Afghanistan Relationship In Crisis?

    Pakistan, a country troubled with borders, is facing a deep existential crisis. The multi-ethnic, multilingual nation continues to exist due to its strong adherence to Islamism and animosity towards India. However, the state has already faltered due to poor governance, recurrent military rule, escalating separatist movements, and rampant terrorist activities. Challenges also emanate from neighboring countries. India, the primary adversary, is increasingly assertive in its demand for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Additionally, relations with Iran have soured over Balochistan, while territorial disputes strain ties with Afghanistan. Afghanistan has never acknowledged the Durand Line, the border line between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which traverses the heartland of the Pashtun. Nevertheless, the relationship with Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Islamic brother, is crucial for Pakistan due to unique geographical challenges and the potential threat posed by India. But as like the twists in Bollywood movies Afghanistan is now the biggest concern of Pakistan.

    Pakistan, once accused of nurturing terrorism, reaped benefits from it. Serious blasts in Indian economic centers and Jammu Kashmir served to stun India, portraying it as lacking security in international media. Terrorism also served strategic purposes in Iran and Afghanistan. The Taliban, current rulers of Afghanistan, emerged from Pakistan’s terrorist nurturing programs. However, terrorism eventually turned against itself as terrorist organizations aimed at Islamizing the Indian subcontinent began to target Pakistan primarily. These groups, like the Pakistan Taliban, began attacking officials, tourists, and mostly Chinese foreign workers, earning Pakistan the label of a serious terrorist state. And severely worsened the economy of Pakistan. Accusations against Afghanistan grew as they seemingly adopted strategies of Pakistan used against India to now target Pakistan.

    Recently, Pakistan’s military revealed that a suicide bombing in March, which killed five Chinese engineers and a Pakistani driver, was orchestrated from neighboring Afghanistan by an Afghan citizen. Four suspects linked to the attack were apprehended. This is only one incident that grabs headlines of newspapers, due to the deaths of Chinese nationals, but there are a lot of similar incidents reported. The Pakistani Taliban, with sanctuaries in Afghanistan, intensified attacks within Pakistan since January, resulting in the deaths of 62 security forces. Evidence strongly implicates their involvement in the escalating violence. Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, witnessed numerous militant attacks in recent years, including a recent suicide blast targeting a van carrying five Japanese workers. The Pakistani Taliban, although distinct from but closely aligned with the Afghan Taliban, bore responsibility for such attacks. Consequently, animosity toward Afghans in Pakistan has surged. Nearly 563,639 Afghan migrants returned to Afghanistan following Islamabad’s crackdown on illegal migration, drawing criticism from international and domestic human rights groups.

    Pakistan and Afghanistan, as part of the Indian kingdoms, historically maintained a good relationship. There was a time when discussions leaned toward uniting Pakistan and Afghanistan to form a strong Islamic country in the Indian subcontinent. Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, a seasoned diplomat who held the position of Pakistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, recalled significant efforts made at the governmental level to establish an Pakistan-Afghanistan Confederation. According to Kasuri, the United States also endorsed this concept. President Zia-ul-Haq expanded on the notion of a Pakistan-Afghanistan Confederation, envisioning unrestricted movement for both Pakistanis and Afghans without the need for passports.. General Akhtar Abdur Rahman, considered Zia’s right-hand man and the Director-General of the ISI, himself a Pashtun, shared Zia’s vision of a post-Soviet “Islamic Confederation” comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kashmir, and even the states of Soviet Central Asia. Despite its abandonment, Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan remained warm. The Taliban received significant financial and logistical support from Pakistan, facilitated by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, which provided funding, training, and weaponry. After the Taliban’s removal in 2001, many found refuge in Pakistan. However, following the Taliban’s return to Afghanistan in 2021, the situation changed drastically. There is now a considerable amount of anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan, while negative feelings toward Afghan refugees are widespread in Pakistan. Issues such as calls for Pashtun land in Pakistan, the refugee crisis, and terrorism have strained the relationship to its lowest point.

    Foreign relationships are essential in modern times, as they create more opportunities for every state. Building relationships with neighbors is particularly crucial. However, Pakistan currently lacks both. Its relationship with Afghanistan is in a volatile state, and any further developments will likely exacerbate the situation. Both the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, though they are Islamic, their views, directions, and agendas differ. Pakistan’s new government favors the military and the West but does not support Islamic extremism like the Taliban’s Afghanistan. The Taliban government, on the other hand, will strive to benefit from Pashtun support by claiming Pashtun areas. Consequently, the Western-oriented Pakistani government may soon clash with the Taliban government, and as a result, the chances of improving relationships are diminishing.

  • Impact of Biden’s Xenophobia Comment on Asian Politics

    Impact of Biden’s Xenophobia Comment on Asian Politics

    The United States Presidential race is heating up. President Joe Biden, appearing aged and sluggish, intends to seek another term for the presidential role. The Democrat, known for his pro-migration stance, consistently supports and welcomes immigrants. Biden’s recent comment favoring the country’s migration policy, in comparison with Asia, is emerging as a controversial topic in the political sphere. At last week’s event to raise funds for his 2024 re-election campaign, Biden remarked that their welcoming stance towards immigrants was a contributing factor to their growth of the economy. He proceeded with the economic struggles of China, Japan, Russia, and India, attributing them to their xenophobic reluctance to accept immigrants. Biden underscored the strength immigrants bring to a nation, but with negative comments on rivals China and Russia, and interestingly towards Japan and India. Such a seemingly casual remark from a seasoned politician has the potential to impact foreign relationships badly.

    Biden’s comments against Asian countries’ xenophobia, were only meant to target Trump’s policies, but they made news in the Asian political landscape. Despite Russia, China, and India being multi-ethnic countries historically welcoming foreigners, their immigration policies do not resemble those of the United States or Western countries today. These countries’ stringent immigration laws and high population numbers coupled with a low job market, make them unattractive destinations for migration. These countries have significant multi-ethnic cities, such as Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Moscow, but small cities and villages usually don’t have that multi ethnic color. Though these countries’ populations and religions are generally open to foreigners, their politicians often run campaigns against immigrants. The stringent regulations are directly linked with politics. The countries are notorious for campaigns against the US, and which is often referred to as Xenophobia. But the comments against these countries by Biden, used by politicians in these countries, are being used to further escalate anti-American sentiments. However, mentioning Japan in the comment, a staunch ally of the United States, adds an intriguing dimension to the discussion.

    Japan is more notorious for xenophobia than other countries in Biden’s comment, and historically, this trait has been visible in Japanese society. The nation, which prides itself on its homogeneity, has long been hesitant about immigration. However, its falling birth rate and rapidly aging population point to an acute labor shortage in the coming decades. Many experts believe that Japan’s lagging economy is a result of its strict regulations on immigration. In the case of Japan, Biden’s comment is actually true. However, Making a negative comment on Japan alongside comments about enemy nations is a blow for Japan. Japan has been described as “Regrettable”, the top government spokesperson said on Tuesday. Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, Yoshimasa Hayashi informed at a scheduled regular news conference that representations had been lodged with the United States. These representations indicated that the comment was not based on the correct understanding of Japan’s migration policy and was regrettable. Japan’s ties with its security ally, the United States, remain solid. Nevertheless, this type of comment will definitely affect people’s mood.

    Only a few weeks before, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Washington for a summit with Biden and unveiled plans for military cooperation and projects ranging from missiles to moon landings to strengthen ties with an eye toward countering China and Russia. At this time, mentioning Japan was an unnecessary move by Biden. At Least it doesn’t need  to be criticized along with the enemy states. China and Russia already have strained connections with America. Regarding India, they were moved towards the direction of the U.S. during Trump. But, Biden’s comment has already made headlines in India, and it could worsen the relationship. This is certainly a blunder by Biden at a time when strong alliances with Japan and India are needed to counter the growing influence of China and Russia in the continent. While Trump was accused by Biden of damaging foreign relations, Biden’s actions may be causing even more harm to the United States’ foreign relationships.

  • What makes Uttar Pradesh the Focal Point of Indian General Elections?

    What makes Uttar Pradesh the Focal Point of Indian General Elections?

    Uttar Pradesh is the powerhouse of Indian Politics. With an approximate population of 250 million, it would rank fifth, just below the fourth-placed Indonesia, if it was an independent country. The most populous state in India, wields considerable influence in the country’s representative parliamentary system. The state holds 80 seats, the highest number of seats, out of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (House of commons). Therefore, whoever secures more seats in Uttar Pradesh will determine who will wield power in New Delhi. In the ongoing 2024 general election, voting in Uttar Pradesh spans all seven phases, and unlike the previous elections, the fight is concentrated between the two powerful alliances as seen at the national level. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance and the Indian National Congress led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) are making final efforts to sway voters in their favor.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party and their allies swept almost every seat in the last two general elections. BJP is confident and hopes they can improve the tally from last time’s 62 seats out of 80 and 50% vote share. Uttar Pradesh contributed more to Modi’s magic in the recent Indian general elections or made Modi’s magic run possible. Several factors favor the BJP this time around. There is a notable absence of anti-incumbency sentiment, and Narendra Modi remains the most popular leader in the state. The positive mood towards the BJP-led Uttar Pradesh state government and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is another factor BJP will benefit from. The construction of Ram Mandir, infrastructure projects, and welfare programs for the common people will contribute. Under Modi’s leadership, BJP successfully broke the caste politics once prominent in the state, which is expected to decrease votes for opposition parties that mostly relied on caste politics.  The BJP maintains alliances with minor regional parties such as Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal Sonelal, and is competing in a total of 75 out of 80 seats, with the remaining 5 allocated to these regional parties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is standing from Varanasi, as in previous general elections.

    The Indian National Congress (INC), the venerable political party and the second-largest in India, lacks its former prominence in Uttar Pradesh. So, they are in alliance with the strongest regional party in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP). The alliance is part of the national-level I.N.D.I.A alliance, which gives a tight contest for Narendra Modi’s third term wish. A total of 62 seats out of 80 will be contested by the Samajwadi Party, 17 seats are allocated for the Indian National Congress, and 1 seat is for the Trinamool Congress. The last general election was a disaster for the Samajwadi Party and the Indian National Congress. The Samajwadi Party only got 5 seats, and the INC shrunk to one seat. Both parties’ recent great performances occurred in the 2009 general election, before Modi’s entry. In that election, the SP won 23 seats, and the INC won 21 seats from Uttar Pradesh. But in the next general election, the political landscape completely changed with Modi’s entry. However, this time, the alliance is confident to gather anti-BJP votes, secular votes, and Muslim votes. They expect that even though anti-incumbency sentiment is not visible outside, people have concerns about the lack of jobs and loss of recruitment in government posts, against the backdrop of unemployment in India. The alliance expects that the call for a caste census will successfully disrupt the Hindu unity stitched by Narendra Modi. Moreover, the decision of charming leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi to contest seats in Uttar Pradesh will delight the party’s supporters.

    The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also vying for seats in Uttar Pradesh. Though, Similar to the INC, they are encountering significant challenges in the state. They are contesting in 79 seats in Uttar Pradesh and without forming any major alliance. In the last election, they got the second-biggest tally in Uttar Pradesh with 10 seats. However, they had an alliance with SP in that election that collapsed soon after the election, and since then, the party has been in constant deterioration. Mayawati, the supreme leader, is not looking to contest in the Lok Sabha election, and her nephew, raised as her successor, is not looking like a charming leader. It’s clear they can’t make a stunning performance like in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, but if they repeat 2019’s result, BSP can remain in the political sphere of Uttar Pradesh, and they can be an important player if BJP doesn’t get a single-handed majority at the national level. The Communist Party is also contesting in Uttar Pradesh but doesn’t seem like it will make an impact.

    Uttar Pradesh has always perplexed political experts. The “Modi magic” in Previous general elections in Uttar Pradesh was also a wonder. And if Modi gets another sweep from the state, that will also be a wonder. Given the inherent bias in Indian opinion polls, they are not a reliable indicator. However, judging from the state’s mood and the polling rates of the preceding two phases, the BJP seems to hold the advantage. However, the contest between the BJP alliance and the INC alliance remains tight. While exit polls suggest a BJP sweep akin to the 2014 election, there’s anticipation for the Samajwadi Party to stage a comeback. INC and BSP expect seats. It’s evident that Uttar Pradesh plays a crucial role in shaping every parliament and the forthcoming one, so political parties are sparing no effort to sway Uttar Pradesh’s electorate. As someone aptly said, Uttar Pradesh will determine the rulers for New Delhi.

  • How Does India-China Tension Benefit Nepal?

    How Does India-China Tension Benefit Nepal?

    Geopolitical tensions between superpowers always cause damage to their smaller neighbors. In the world wars and during the cold war era, the small neighbors of superpowers suffered greatly; often, they were dragged in without any direct interest in the conflicts. The domestic politics of these countries are always influenced by their neighbors. Any attempt to change puppet governments often leads to severe punishments for the people. While there are many adverse effects of this power struggle, there are also some benefits to consider. We can see this in the flow of funds from super powers to strategically located poor countries. For example, the Maldives is receiving a large sum of money from China, Taiwan is receiving considerable aid from the United States, and some countries are benefiting from both sides due to their strategic location. Nepal, the landlocked Himalayan country sandwiched between the heavyweights of India and China, is one such country. The country, home to Mount Everest, is dragged into India-China tensions, and these countries are investing in infrastructure projects, politicians, and even cultural organizations.

    Nepal has seen a significant influx of foreign investment in recent years. Most recently, during a two-day investment summit in Kathmandu, which concluded on Monday, representatives from India and China actively announced investments seeking to forge closer ties with Nepal and enhance their countries’ economic presence in South Asia. At the summit, potential investors pledged to inject up to US$68.3 million into the country. It is huge for a politically unstable country. Nepal is currently undergoing a transition from a centralized monarchy to a federal democratic republic under its 2015’s Constitution. Additionally, it aims to shift from reliance on international aid towards becoming a hub for global investments. Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal emphasizes that liberal economic policies lay the foundation for a vibrant and investor-friendly business environment. Although India’s and China’s interests were evident in the resulting deals announced.

    Delegates from India and China constituted the largest contingent among the 2,400 representatives from various countries attending the summit. While India dispatched around 150 participants, China’s delegation was twice as large. During the summit’s opening on Sunday, Beijing announced the exemption of visa fees for Nepali travelers starting May 1. This initiative coincides with the commencement of commercial flights from two international airports in Nepali cities Pokhara and Lumbini. Previously, the Himalayan route to China was inaccessible to Nepalis due to the government’s support for Tibetans, and the open border between India and Nepal caused concerns for China. However, recent developments suggest cooperation between Nepal and China to establish more routes through these challenging terrains. Progress is evident in air and road links, as well as border checkpoints. Feasibility studies for cross-border railways and transmission lines are also advancing.

    The airports, funded by China in the hundreds of millions of dollars, have been completed. In contrast, India has been cautious about opening air routes to Nepal, partly due to concerns over these airports’ connection to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. While additional projects are planned, there are concerns that they may further facilitate China’s access not only to Nepal but also directly to India’s northern regions. Despite Nepal’s naturally open border with India, infrastructure development appears to be more pronounced and effective on the Chinese side. Additionally, China’s funding of hydropower projects raises concerns for India. If India-China tensions escalate, the rivers originating in Nepal could become contentious, as they supply water to populous and fertile plains in India. Recognizing the importance of the situation, India is now actively addressing these issues. Piyush Goyal, India’s Federal Minister for Commerce and Industry, emphasized in a speech at the event via video call: “We will continue to expand our trading and business relationship. I urge Indian investors worldwide to invest in Nepal, seize the opportunity, and contribute to Nepal’s emerging development”.

    The impoverished South Asian country, boasting some of the world’s largest mountain peaks, holds potential across various sectors but has unfortunately been overlooked by investors. However, the current India-China tensions are instilling hope. The country’s hydro power generation sector, already one of its biggest exports and poised for further expansion, is expected to benefit from these investments. Presently, Nepal generates 3,200MW of hydropower, with numerous large-scale projects totaling 5,568MW in the pipeline. While India heavily invests in Nepal’s hydropower initiatives, China aims to establish a foothold in the sector. Infrastructure development from both ends will also improve the tourism sector. Hindu and Buddhist pilgrimages to Nepal already promise significant economic benefits for the tourism industry. As railroads are completed, Nepal expects an influx of Chinese tourists too. Hence, the India-China tensions offer hope for Nepal, recognizing that its transition from a low-income to a middle-income nation hinges on support from India and China.

  • How Does The COVID-19 Vaccination Affect Indian Politics Anew?

    How Does The COVID-19 Vaccination Affect Indian Politics Anew?

    In a country with a significant conservative and religious population, the world’s largest and most successful COVID-19 vaccination drive was conducted. Despite doubts within religious communities about the unknown liquid being injected as a population control measure, and within the scientific community regarding the vaccine’s insufficient testing, nearly 95% of India’s eligible population received vaccinations. This drive was a huge success because people believed in Narendra Modi, who led the campaign. Narendra Modi conducted extensive campaigns, publishing images of himself receiving vaccines and urging everyone to get vaccinated. He touted this massive vaccination drive as one of his biggest achievements and issued certificates for vaccine recipients with his own prominent image on them. In the subsequent state elections, Narendra Modi benefited from the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. However, during the crucial time of the Lok Sabha elections, after only two phases out of seven had been completed, the COVID-19 vaccination drive gained mainstream again, but not in Modi’s favor.

    With the approval of several vaccines in India, the Covishield vaccine, initially developed by Oxford–AstraZeneca and manufactured under license by the Serum Institute of India, emerged as the preferred choice for most individuals. At a time when the world was gripped by fear of the deadly COVID-19 virus, the Serum Institute stepped up production, delivering a significant number of vaccine doses. Modi faced pressure from international media and opposition parties, who criticized the Indian government for inaccurate death counts. Consequently, when the WHO authorized the vaccine, the Modi government swiftly introduced it to the people, leading to a massive COVID-19 vaccination drive that astounded the world. Modi consistently stressed the significance of vaccinations and initiated programs to encourage people to participate in the COVID-19 vaccination drive. Modi and the managing director of the Pune Serum Institute, Cyrus Poonawalla, became stars and sensations in Indian newspapers. Modi’s image was displayed on certificates, vaccination centers, and wherever possible. Modi further condemned political parties and leaders who expressed doubts about vaccines, including his strong criticism of the Samajwadi Party and its leader Akhilesh Yadav, who raised concerns about large-scale vaccination drives without thoroughly examining potential side effects. The principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress, faced humiliation as Modi vaccinated the majority of the population, dismissing any reservations they voiced. Those who questioned the vaccine were branded as anti-national. In the eyes of the Indian populace, Modi emerged as a superhero, revered as the savior who safeguarded them from the deadly Coronavirus.

    But as the COVID virus receded from the news headlines, people started to question the side effects of the virus. They began to doubt the increased cases of heart attacks and brain damage, even among youths. Conspiracy theories emerged, while the government and government-linked medical associations denied them all. However, during a crucial time, on the occasion of the General election in which Modi sought a continuous third term, the situation took a turn. As the vaccine developer, AstraZeneca admitted in a British court that the vaccine had some side effects that could cause hemorrhage in rare cases, prompting almost 52 people to join a petition in the British court. The opposition parties and social media erupted in rage against Modi, dealing a setback to his aspirations for a third term as Prime Minister. The Indian National Congress hit Narendra Modi hard because the government had not addressed the issue yet, despite having information about the side effects. The government failed to take actions to study and address the issue. The Samajwadi Party, which had questioned vaccines during the vaccination drive, was now mocking Modi and the BJP. Cyberspace attacked Modi more furiously, with Twitter hashtags like #ArrestModi trending, and many people expressing concerns. This is likely to influence Indian voters, who are highly emotional. Interestingly, neither Modi nor the government has made any statements in response, They are neglecting it  and viewing it as an attempt to alter the election scenario.

    The doubts surrounding the COVID virus, such as its origin, original impact, and whether it is a biological weapon, as well as concerns about vaccines, remain entrenched in conspiracy theories. In India, the COVID-19 vaccine has become a political tool, with numerous accusations directed at both the vaccine and its manufacturer, the Serum Institute. The Institute is accused of providing funds to the BJP through the election bond scheme, highlighting systemic corruption issues. However, government supporters affirm that the COVID-19 virus saves lives and provides immunity for people, with side effects being very rare compared to the number of people who have received the vaccines. Despite this, people, especially in cyberspace, continue to share their fears. This is an issue the government must acknowledge and will likely impact future vaccination drives. As petitions are filed in Indian courts, any comments from the court will undoubtedly affect the Indian populace and, consequently, Indian General election.

  • Can Rahul Gandhi Bring Back the Era of Caste Politics in India?

    Can Rahul Gandhi Bring Back the Era of Caste Politics in India?

    Castes, the subdivisions in Hindu society, have always been a political tool in India. People have voted for leaders from their caste, and caste-based politics, or caste politics, became prominent in Indian politics. More than development and basic infrastructure, people love leaders and parties that speak for their caste. In a country where marriages are arranged based on caste, caste-based voting is quite understandable. However, in recent years, under Modi’s regime, caste politics is facing tough challenges. Modi’s religious politics successfully blanketed caste politics; he brought all Hindu castes under an umbrella and called for Hindu unity, causing a significant setback for Indian opposition parties, which lost their conventional voting patterns. In response, opposition parties are protesting against religious politics and now calling for the return of caste politics. Rahul Gandhi, the prominent leader of the opposition party, repeated calls for a caste census, considered a significant move to bring back caste politics in India.

    Since independence, castes have been a factor in Indian elections, although their impact was not visible in initial elections due to sentiments lingering from the Indian independence movement and the animosity directed against Muslims from the Partition. However, there have been voices raised against the neglect of backward castes. Higher castes, such as Brahmins, have traditionally held positions in higher levels of administration, while backward castes, which are more numerous, have historically been sidelined and severely disadvantaged due to educational and economic backwardness. Dr. Ambedkar, a renowned Dalit leader in India, voiced concern about this situation and advocated for the reservation system to benefit the most backward classes, commonly known as scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. However, the system has failed to sufficiently meet the needs of the of backward castes. Consequently, politics based on caste empowerment slowly commenced in the Indian political sphere. Several leaders have emerged as caste advocates, and several parties have been formed to represent different castes.

    The Indian National Congress, now voicing for caste politics, was initially against it and used religious politics to suppress the rise of caste politics. However, caste-based mobilization and communities have become common. The Mandal Commission report, which emerged after extensive protests, shook the Indian political sphere. Movements like government job reservations, where government jobs are highly prestigious, shook the nation and led to the rise of caste-based political parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, and Lok Dal. The Bahujan Samaj Party, aimed at empowering backward castes, became a national-level party, marking the peak of caste politics while religious politics suffered. 

    However, corruption, greedy leaders, and dynasty politics resulted in the diminishing influence of caste-based political parties in later years. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, caste politics was undergoing a reduction in significance. The Bharatiya Janata Party, advocating Hindu nationalism and often expressing animosity towards Muslims, successfully united all castes and formed a massive Hindu vote bank. They appointed a Scheduled Caste and a Scheduled Tribe person to the country’s most respected position, the Indian presidency. Through this action, Ram Nath Kovind, a Scheduled Caste individual, and Draupati Murmu, the incumbent president from a Scheduled Tribe, assumed the presidential role, while Narendra Modi himself is from a backward community. They effectively reshaped the political landscape into Hindu nationalists versus Anti-Hindus. Opposition parties, including the Indian National Congress, are accused by the BJP of being sentimentally inclined towards Muslims.

    As Narendra Modi is seeking a third term, the opposition has begun addressing the strategy adopted by the BJP and is ready to undermine Hindu unity or religious politics and bring back caste politics. The Indian National Congress, once damaged by caste politics, is now the front-runner advocate for caste politics because they know it’s the only way to counter Narendra Modi’s dominance. They have started working on this strategy. Rahul Gandhi, the most influential leader in Indian politics after Narendra Modi, frequently advocates for a caste census. The caste census is a tool to determine the number of people in various castes and their economic and social status. Many expect that conducting a caste census will evoke a situation similar to that after the implementation of the Mandal Commission report, where people will vote according to their caste sentiment rather than religious interests, potentially splitting the Hindu vote bank created by the BJP. This could revive caste-based political parties that are now in alliance with the Indian National Congress. Therefore, the Opposition alliance and the Indian National Congress are actively promoting the caste census, repeatedly mentioning it in different rallies and including it in their election manifesto.

    Caste politics was once believed to improve the living conditions of backward castes and untouchables -But it doesn’t. Leaders of caste politics parties and their relatives became wealthier and more influential, but this did not benefit the common people, who still suffer from poverty and social backwardness. Caste politics has drawn criticism for worsening the state of people, with all caste-based political parties being highly corrupted and facing serious accusations, with some even in jail. Rahul Gandhi aims to introduce a caste census only for political purposes. But if the opposition wins, by campaigning for caste census, it may mark the return of caste politics in India.

  • Pro-China Party Emerges Victorious In Maldives Parliament Election

    Pro-China Party Emerges Victorious In Maldives Parliament Election

    The Maldives is drifting away from India. Following the Maldives parliamentary election held on April 21st, the pro-China party, People’s National Congress (PNC), emerged victorious. President Muizzu’s PNC’s win garnered significant attention due to its strong ties with China, which coincide with its expressed hostility towards India. The People’s National Congress (PNC) secured 66 out of the first 86 seats declared by the Elections Commission of Maldives, exceeding the threshold for a super-majority in the 93-member parliament. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which had aimed to obstruct efforts to reshape Maldivian diplomacy, faced a substantial setback after its previous landslide victory in the 2019 elections. The outcome was seen as a validation of Muizzu’s push for strengthened collaboration with China.

    Maldives, an archipelago nation made up of approximately 1,192 small coral islands spanning 800 kilometers near the equator, stands as one of the nations most susceptible to rising sea levels due to global warming. Despite its vulnerability, this premier luxury destination finds itself at the center of significant geopolitical tensions. China’s extensive investment in various infrastructure projects such as land reclamation, apartment complexes, and bridges has led to a notable shift in the country’s allegiance towards China. Although the Maldives lacks historical ties to China, the populace has increasingly embraced Chinese influence due to the economic and emotional advantages derived from these investments. China’s strategic move in the Indian Ocean, along with its significant financing of infrastructure initiatives in countries surrounding India, is being viewed as a potential strategy to ensnare smaller states in debt and exert influence as proxies for China. India is concerned that China may exploit the strategic positioning of the Maldives, Which is close to Indian shores. Historically, the Maldives enjoyed a close relationship with India, benefiting from historical ties and Indian assistance in safeguarding its sovereignty, including thwarting an invasion attempt by Sri Lanka. However, under President Muizzu’s tenure, there has been a notable shift away from India, evidenced by politicians, including members of the government, openly ridiculing Indian Prime Minister Modi and India. Tensions heightened when the Maldives chose to remove Indian military personnel deployed under an agreement. And also President Muizzu refrained from ceremonial visits to India, instead favoring engagements with Turkey and China. These events sparked campaigns against the Maldives in India, leading to a notable economic downturn for Maldives.

    In the midst of heightened geopolitical tensions, the resounding victory of Muizzu’s party reflects the prevailing sentiment within the state. Muizzu himself emerged triumphant in last September’s presidential election, representing the interests of the pro-China former president Abdulla Yameen, who was recently released following the overturning of his 11-year corruption conviction by the court. Before this parliamentary election, Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) and its allies held only eight seats in parliament, limiting Muizzu’s capacity to implement his agenda post his presidential victory. However, as campaigning for the parliamentary elections intensified this month, Muizzu strategically awarded significant infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, the principal opposition party, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which had previously held a super-majority, suffered a humiliating defeat, securing just a dozen seats. Additionally, independents secured 11 seats in the parliament.

    Despite the concerns raised by ecologists and climate activists about the future of the island nation, which stands among the first countries significantly affected by climate change, it seems that both the populace and politicians are not prioritizing it as they should. This sentiment is reflected in the election results, with Muizzu, the former construction minister, planning to pursue further apartment construction, land reclamation, and other large-scale projects that strain the capacity of the fragile coral islands. The political landscape is heavily influenced by Islamism, with foreign affairs failing to adequately address the realities of climate change. However, this victory is a green flag for Muizzu and China.

  • The Politics of Opinion Polls: Can We Rely on Indian Opinion Polls?

    The Politics of Opinion Polls: Can We Rely on Indian Opinion Polls?

    The mammoth Indian general election, unfolding across multiple phases starting on April 19th. anticipates the participation of over 96 million voters throughout its seven phases spanning two months. Results are slated for release on June 4th, marking nearly 50 days since the inauguration of the first polling phase. As India asserts itself as a global force in both economic and political spheres, the Indian election gains paramount importance internationally. Supporters of democracy closely scrutinize the intricate electoral processes, applauding Indian authorities for effectively engaging such a vast electorate. Nevertheless, numerous analysts voice concerns over potential flaws in the democratic system. The prevalence of smartphones among the populace, often outweighing educational resources, exacerbates susceptibility to misinformation and paid propaganda. From television to cinema, there is a considerable propaganda drive aimed at shaping the mood of the nation, often overshadowing real issues. Opinion polls are one of the tools used in Indian elections, often tailored to specific interests and potentially influencing the collective mood of the nation. In a country like India, celebrated for its mob mentality, opinion polls are considered to have a significant impact.

    Opinion polls have been a fixture in elections worldwide for many years, utilized by political parties and the press in various democracies such as France and the United States for centuries. Over time, they have developed foolproof sampling, leveraging technology to minimize inaccuracies. Nonetheless, from the outset, many have raised objections to opinion polls, questioning their reliability and their influence on voters and politicians. Several countries have implemented regulations governing opinion polls, and allegations of biased funding against certain well-known polling agencies have undermined their credibility, leading to doubts about their impartiality. As opinion polls stir considerable tumult in the Western world, India, the largest democracy, has only recently adopted this trend in the 21st century. While some press and agencies had conducted opinion polls previously, they did not gain much popularity. However, the proliferation of television and rivalry between television channels propelled opinion polls into prominence in India. Initially confined to major cities, India’s opinion polls expanded through technological advancements and substantial funding. Indeed, opinion polling has burgeoned into one of the most lucrative industries in India, with television channels, the press, and YouTube channels vying for the services of surveying agencies or establishing their own survey teams.

    Opinion polls in India have peaked in the last 10 years, with many inaccuracies regarding the winners of constituencies and completely wrong predictions at the state level, although at the national level, most opinion polls predicted the general mood. However, questions persist about the sampling methods and the impact of opinion polls on Indian people. The population is highly diverse, encompassing various ethnicities, religions, views, and languages, and individuals often feel ashamed, fearful, or dishonest about revealing their voting preferences. Despite education levels, factors such as family influence, caste dynamics, mob mentality, and celebrity endorsements heavily shape voter mentality. Additionally, millions of people may never encounter any opinion poll.

    Though The result of opinion polls have become celebrated in the television and social media. In this context, Indian opposition parties accuse Indian opinion polls of being highly corrupted and influenced by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and business interests. They claim that television channels and major agencies, currently funded by BJP-linked business entities, propagate the notion that the opposition is weak and that Modi will secure most seats. This creates a “Bandwagon Effect”, prompting voters to support the candidate perceived to be winning in the polls. Those familiar with the parliamentary system tend to favor the party projected to win, making it a potent election strategy. The river of Opinion polls  from the past year predicting Modi’s third term and the humiliation of the opposition are likely to influence public opinion.

    According to the findings of numerous television, print, and YouTube channels engaged in conducting surveys, many of which boast considerable sample sizes of up to 200,000, all indicate that the BJP is likely to emerge victorious. Despite the Election Commission’s mandate prohibiting opinion polls within 48 hours before polling commences, the released results have already shaped a favorable narrative for the BJP. Voters are primarily interested in electing members from the party projected to govern the state, or they prefer candidates aligned with the ruling party over those going to sit in the opposition bloc. Thus, opinion polls are poised to have a significant impact on the outcome of the Indian general election.

  • Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Can the Upcoming General Election Propel Modi’s Southern Expansion?

    Narendra Modi is on a mission to sweep the upcoming Indian general election. He continuously states in rallies that he will secure 400+ seats out of the total 545 seats. Perhaps it is merely an election strategy to ensure the common perception that Modi will continue for a third term, though it’s clear that if Modi wants a third term single-handedly, he has to expand his influence to the southern states, which are still opting for the rival Indian National Congress and its allies.

    When opinion polls and election scientists predict the loss of current seats and anticipate tough fights from states where Modi’s BJP has secured the majority of their seats, such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra, they are focusing on other states that traditionally haven’t contributed to the BJP. South India is now in the radar of the BJP. The people of southern states, with different ethnicities and languages compared to the rest of India, always follow different trends. But Modi has proven his winning mindset before and is not backing down. By increasing rallies and setting up thorough election campaigns, Modi is getting ready to reap more seats from the south.

    South India, the region comprising the five states and one union territory, which are Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Puducherry, contributes almost 130 seats out of 545 seats. Every state has different political scenarios, different leaders, and different alliances. The stronghold of the Indian National Congress has the government in Karnataka and Telangana. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the ruling parties are allied with the Indian National Congress. In Andhra Pradesh, a Congress faction, YSR Congress, is in administration, and the only government in alliance with the BJP is in Puducherry.

    Tamil Nadu, known as the paradise of regional parties, has a myriad of parties advocating Tamil nationalism, representing various castes, and fans associations of movie stars. It holds the most number of seats in South India, with 39 seats in the upcoming general election being contested by three alliances. The INDI alliance, comprising the Indian National Congress, Tamil Nationalist Party DMK, Communist parties, and Dalit Party VCK, is at the forefront. The All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance includes some Islamist parties, and the NDA, the BJP-led front, comprises the Vanniyar Caste Party Pattali Makkal Katchi and factions of All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The state gave one or two seats to the BJP in the last elections, and opinion polls suggest they may gain some seats this time, improving upon their previous general election’s record of zero seats. Expectations are for 3-4 seats to be won here, while opinion polls favor the INDI alliance. However, Modi is confident and hardworking, conducting numerous rallies and expecting to secure more seats from Tamil Nadu.

    Karnataka, which has 28 seats, is the only BJP stronghold in South India. Previously, it formed governments, and BJP surprisingly secured 26 seats in the last Indian general election. However, the state assembly election followed by the general election was swept by the Indian National Congress. BJP formed an alliance with the regional party JDS to repeat the victory of the last time and sweep all seats. However, this time, the Congress is putting up a tight fight under a strong state-level leader. It is expected that the BJP-led NDA alliance can secure 15-18 seats out of the 28 available. In a state known for Hindu-Muslim tensions, BJP will definitely use Hindu sentiments to secure more seats.

    In Andhra Pradesh, which contributes 25 seats, there are multi-front fights. The ruling YSR Congress, a faction of Congress, is on one side, while the Indian National Congress is on the other. Additionally, the BJP leads an alliance with the strong regional party TDP and the party of movie star Pawan Kalyan. Like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh has many parties associated with movie stars and caste-based parties. However, as the general election coincides with the state assembly election, the sentiment against the ruling state government largely determines the election results. In the last general election, the YSR Congress party led with 22 seats out of 25, with the rest going to the TDP. But this time, the Indian National Congress and BJP are also contenders. With the alliance of TDP and the Modi factor, BJP is expecting to secure 3-4 seats from Andhra Pradesh.

    Kerala is the state that has never given a Member of Parliament to the BJP. The BJP doesn’t have any significant role in the political landscape of the state, which has 20 seats and is highly divided between the CPIM-led LDF alliance and the INC-led UDF alliance. Even though the BJP has some strongholds in the state, they didn’t secure any seats in the last general election for parliament. Out of the 20 seats, 19 were won by UDF and 1 by LDF, but the subsequent state assembly election was won by LDF. However, with the state facing severe economic struggles and the rise of Islamism, there is hope for the BJP. Narendra Modi has conducted several rallies, and they are expecting to secure more than 4 seats from the state in the changed political landscape.

    Telangana contributes 17 seats to the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). In the upcoming general election, there is expected to be a multi-front fight for these 17 seats. The INC, BJP, and the strong local party BRS, along with many communist and religious parties, are all participating. In the last general election in 2019, BRS secured the highest number of seats with 9, followed by BJP with 4, and then Congress with 3. However, the INC made a comeback following the state assembly election. Currently, the INC holds the advantage in opinion polls, while the BJP is gaining momentum and hopes to capitalize on the collapse of the BRS Party. BJP expects to secure more than 4 seats, and there is a possibility for BJP to capitalize Hindu-Muslim religious tensions.

    Puducherry, the Union Territory, an old French territory, has one seat in the House of Commons, which was won by the INC last time. Then, the BJP-led alliance won the state assembly election, and they are expecting to win the seat by tightening the contest.

    It’s clear that the Indian National Congress has the upper hand in South India. However, the BJP will pose a tough challenge, and the growth of the BJP in the region is evident. They are gradually expanding into more regions and states, with Modi giving importance to the region. Increasing their tally from the current 29 out of 130 seats to more will help them secure additional seats and decrease the number of seats for their prime rival, the INC, as they too expect to gain more seats from the region. Predictions suggest 35 to 40 seats for the BJP in the upcoming general election, and sometimes it may even be more. Modi has proven before that he can work wonders in general elections.

  • Will the 2024 General Election Mark the End of Indian Communism?

    Will the 2024 General Election Mark the End of Indian Communism?

    The Modi era is redefining Indian politics. The Indian political landscape has undergone drastic changes since Modi assumed the prime ministership after the 2014 general election. Under his leadership, the ruling party, BJP’s influence has expanded across India, with many states that were previously inaccessible to even the mighty Indian National Congress now showing no reluctance to turn in favor of the BJP. As a result, several political parties, including the Indian National Congress, are experiencing their lowest representation in the Lok Sabha (House of Commons). Indian communist parties, once significant players in Indian politics, have also suffered significant losses, with their remaining strongholds crumbling during what Modi’s supporters refer to as his “Ashwamedha”. Despite India’s large working-class and untouchable populations, which were once seen as fertile ground for communism, the country now appears poised to eradicate the last vestiges of communist influence.

    In a country that maintained a highly amicable relationship with the Soviet Union, numerous communist-affiliated parties emerged. Among these, The Communist Party of India (CPI) and its factions are considered the foremost representatives of communism in India. The Communist Party of India was founded in 1925 in Kanpur and actively participated in the resistance against British rule and Indian landlords. The party garnered support from the people by addressing common issues such as casteism and advocating for land reforms. Following independence in 1947, the party gained popularity at the national level and emerged as the second-largest party in the early Lok Sabha elections. It also formed governments in many states through democratic elections.

    The Communist Party of India (CPI) and its two divisions, the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPIM) and the Communist Party of India Marxist Leninist (CPIML), are considered the strongest communist parties in the Indian political landscape. There are many other divisions, including several banned divisions, who do not agree with the Indian constitution and fight against the Indian military, commonly referred to as the “Naxals”. The CPI, CPIM, and CPIML are also contesting in the upcoming general election. They are in coalition with the INDI alliance and contesting in many constituencies. 

    CPIM, the strongest and only remaining national party, is contesting most seats. They are part of the government in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, but they fear they will lose their status as a national party if they do not make an impressive performance in the upcoming general election. CPIM is contesting in Kerala, once a stronghold, and in West Bengal, Tripura, and several pockets in the states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, etc., with the support of the Indian National Congress. They do not have any national ambition, but they want to preserve their election symbol, the prestigious Hammer sickle and star, and their national party status. They hope they can garner anti-Modi votes in Kerala and anti-Mamata votes in Bengal and contribute to the INDIA alliance to form a government. However, considering the ground reality, the possibilities are low. In Kerala, their only remaining fortress in India, they failed to form an alliance with the Indian National Congress, and they are fighting each other. It is expected that INC has the upper hand in Kerala with the people’s hatred toward the incumbent communist government. In West Bengal and Tripura, once strongholds of CPIM, the party is now very weak, and it will be a wonder if they secure seats there as they face stiff competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party, though they expect to secure some single-digit seats in Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan as part of the INDI alliance.

    CPI and CPIML, other important communist parties, have already lost their national party status. They contest in the election just to have their representation in the Lok Sabha. They are contesting in their strongholds like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Bihar, and Jharkhand. CPI expects some single digits from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana, while CPI ML expects seats from Bihar. All three prominent communist parties are getting ready for the endgame because they know that if they are removed from one state, a comeback is almost impossible. In every state where communist parties have been removed from power, people don’t choose them again. West Bengal, the state they ruled for almost 40 years, doesn’t offer any scope for them now. And in Tripura, they vanished. Therefore, continuing to be represented from their remaining stronghold is important for them. Many opinion polls and reports are predicting a blow for the communist party. Combining all three parties at the national level, a mere five to ten seats are predicted.

    There are many reasons why communist parties are failing. Firstly, continuous splitting has led to the division of vote banks and reduced the bargaining power and wealth of the party. Even though they are now cooperating, they remain split. Additionally, there is a lack of vision from leadership, shifting policies, increasing caste-based politics since the 1990s, and a Hindu wave since 2014. The party leadership is considered greedy, and many are reported to be corrupt. Serious corruption accusations are rising against leaders, including the remaining communist Chief Minister, Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who is expected to be arrested after the election. It is clear that people are moving away from communist parties, and the party struggles to reach a new audience except for some university students. And interestingly, The current ruling party of India, the BJP, considers communists as anti-nationals. Therefore, this election will decide the future of communism in India.