Tag: India

  • Shrinking Russosphere: How Central Asia’s Cultural Uplift Will Affect Russia’s Interests?

    Shrinking Russosphere: How Central Asia’s Cultural Uplift Will Affect Russia’s Interests?

    Throughout history, language has consistently proven to be a crucial instrument in the delicate process of shaping national identities. The Russian language, in particular, stands out as one of the Soviet Union’s most powerful tools, adeptly molding diverse ethnic groups into a cohesive whole and forging a robust national identity. This linguistic force played a pivotal role in facilitating the dissemination of ideas, fostering the development of unions, and acting as a conduit for news to permeate society. Over time, it evolved into a unifying force, seamlessly binding together the disparate regions under Soviet rule.

    The Russian language has had a lasting impact on the global landscape even after the Soviet Union disintegrated. Despite changes in political landscapes, Russia, which is currently the successor to a “Russosphere,” observes the enduring effect of its language history. Russian continues to be the most widely spoken language in several republics, including the current Russian Federation, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

    As Russia, under Putin’s leadership, pursues ambitions of imperial resurgence through conflicts with Georgia and Ukraine, a counter-trend is quietly emerging in some nations seeking to rebuild their national identity by distancing themselves from the Russian language. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Central Asia.

    Originating in Eastern Europe, a movement has gained traction, aiming to dismantle Russian influence and foster distinct identities, particularly notable in the Baltic countries. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, motivated by a yearning to reclaim their cultural heritage, strategically pivoted towards their ethnic languages—Estonian, Lithuanian, and Latvian. Simultaneously, English emerged as a Lingua Franca, supplanting Russian, enabling national radios, television, and cultural programs to successfully resonate with both domestic and international audiences. These Baltic nations adeptly navigated the transition, reclaiming their identities during the shift from the Soviet Union to Putin’s Russia.

    However, the pace and assertiveness in this linguistic and cultural transition varied across different Eastern European countries. Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and Georgia were comparatively slow and less assertive, leading to a different outcome. These nations continued to embrace Russian programs and news, and paid a price for not fostering a distinct cultural identity. Ukraine, in particular, faced internal divisions, as the lack of assertive Ukrainian language contributed to a large population of Russian influenced people..

    Georgia lost territories, while Moldova too grappled with internal divisions. Belarus, facing a crisis of identity, is now closely aligned with Russia. The contrast in outcomes highlights the crucial role of linguistic and cultural choices in shaping a nation’s destiny, as Eastern European countries navigate the complex interplay between identity, politics, and external influences.

    Central Asia also embarked on a journey of self-discovery, slowly and amicably fostering their language and identity. However, the pace and approach differ markedly, as Central Asian nations lack the robust support enjoyed by their Eastern European counterparts from Europe and the United States. With a continued reliance on Russia for resources, financial support, and tourism, their journey has been shaped by a different set of challenges.

    While still dependent on Russia for essentials like gas and financial aid, the region is increasingly becoming a multi-player on the global stage. With a myriad of options, including support from Turkey, Qatar, Iran, India, China, and even Eastern Europe itself, Central Asian nations are strategically positioning themselves to diversify their alliances and reduce dependence on any single power.

    This shift opens avenues for Central Asia to make bold and swift moves in establishing and strengthening their languages and cultural identities. The geopolitical realignment not only offers opportunities but also poses challenges as these nations navigate a delicate balance between maintaining historical ties and forging new partnerships in their quest for identity.

    As the largest country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan grapples with intricate language dynamics, notably the coexistence of Russian and Kazakh. While Russian is not designated as a state language, Article 7 of Kazakhstan’s Constitution accords it equal status with Kazakh in state and local administration, despite Russian being the more commonly spoken language. The 2009 census sheds light on the linguistic landscape, revealing that a significant 84.8% of the population aged 15 and above in Kazakhstan can proficiently read, write, and understand Russian. 

    However, recent developments indicate a deliberate push towards elevating the use of the Kazakh language over Russian. In October 2023, Kazakhstan introduced a media law aimed at increasing the prominence of Kazakh. The law mandates a gradual rise in the share of the state language on television and radio, moving from 50% to 70% at a 5% annual increment, beginning in 2025.

    The matter of language in Kazakhstan stands as one of the most contentious issues today, marked by periodic language-related scandals. Language has evolved into a significant aspect of political rhetoric, particularly for politicians espousing a national-patriotic agenda. Arguments advocating for the strengthening of Kazakh’s position are gaining momentum, showcasing the complex interplay between linguistic identity, political discourse, and societal tensions in the country.

    Kyrgyzstan navigates a nuanced linguistic landscape, as Russian holds co-official status per Article 5 of the Constitution. According to the 2009 census, 8.99% of the population, approximately 482,200 individuals, speak Russian as a native language. Moreover, a significant 49.6% of Kyrgyzstan’s population aged 15 and above, or 1,854,700 residents, fluently speak Russian as a second language.

    At the close of 2023, Kyrgyzstan implemented a law on the state language, compelling civil servants, MPs, teachers, and healthcare workers to communicate in Kyrgyz. However, this move has sparked controversy, with Russian officials and propaganda outlets criticizing it as “undemocratic” and oppressive to the Russian language. Despite objections, language tests over three years reveal gaps in officials’ Kyrgyz proficiency, highlighting the need for improvement.

    The head of the National Commission for the State Language and Language Policy, Kanybek Osmonaliyev, is an advocate for allowing officials time to improve their Kyrgyz language proficiency. The new law stipulates that noncompliance with linguistic proficiency requirements will result in instant termination. Around 4.4 million people in Kyrgyzstan speak Kyrgyz, according to the census taken in 2022, and there is a rising desire among them to learn the language. 

    In Tajikistan, Russian serves as the language of inter-ethnic communication, permitted in official documentation under the country’s constitution. Despite being spoken by 28% of the population in 2006, and with 7% using it as their primary language in various settings, Russian remains integral in government and business. In Tajikistan, proficiency in Russian is often seen as essential for career success, granting access to modern literature and technology. While English holds promise, learning Russian is more affordable, and many families anticipate their children studying at Russian universities or working in Russia. However, Tajik language courses are scarce and expensive, with limited availability after school. The teaching system primarily focuses on literary Tajik, differing significantly from the modern spoken language.

    Contrastingly, in Turkmenistan, Russian lost its status as the official lingua franca in 1996. Approximately 12% of the population, those who grew up in the Soviet era, can speak Russian. Primary and secondary education in Russian is minimal for subsequent generations. Turkmen state press and the newspaper Neytralny Turkmenistan continue to publish material in Russian, and there are schools like the Joint Turkmen-Russian Secondary School. The country has made strides in revitalizing the national language, with only 18% of residents proficient in Russian in 2020. A radical language policy, notably the shift from Cyrillic to the Latin script, led to a significant outflow of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking populations. The reform also impacted education, eliminating Russian-language schools and university curricula despite the declared policy of trilingual education (Turkmen, Russian, English).These linguistic landscapes underscore the delicate balance between cultural preservation, economic considerations, and the evolving educational paradigms in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

    Russian is the official language of documentation, the lingua franca and language of the elite in Uzbekistan, and it plays an important role in interethnic communication. An estimate from the World Factbook that is not current states that 14.2% of people speak Russian. Russian is nevertheless widely used even though it is not an official language, especially in big cities, business, and science. Its persistence in society is partly due to the belief that education in Russian is better than in Uzbek. 

    Uzbekistan, among Central Asian countries planning to transition from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet since 1993, has faced multiple delays in implementing the change, with the latest deadline set for 2023. While some school textbooks have been published in the Latin alphabet, the shift has resulted in a nuance: young people not proficient in the Cyrillic version of Uzbek find themselves disconnected from the world’s literary heritage, as limited fiction, including classical works by Uzbek authors, has been adapted into Latin.

    The Russosphere stands at a crossroads, its existence intricately tied to the Russian language. Contrary to the belief that language merely spreads culture, it wields power. Former Soviet nations, once deeply connected to Russia, are now charting their own paths, fostering distinct identities and pivoting from Russian towards English. These countries aspire to align with prosperous Western standards, a departure that is transforming the geopolitical landscape. The Russosphere, once synonymous with Russian dominance, is undergoing a deterioration, signaling a new chapter in the histories of these nations.

  • What Will the New Government in Pakistan Mean for the Neighbors?

    What Will the New Government in Pakistan Mean for the Neighbors?

    After the widely rigged recent national election, Pakistan is set to form a new government. Caretaker prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif is well-positioned to return to the prime minister’s office by the partnership developed between the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). They underscored having secured the requisite majority to establish a coalition government. The inaugural session of the National Assembly, expected at the end of February or in early March, is poised to witness the taking of Shehbaz Sharif as the new prime minister, representing the cohesive front of the PML-N. The inception of this new government is accompanied by a myriad of internal and external challenges. Anticipated public anger over mandate rigging may intensify and extend. The state is currently confronting economic challenges, with citizens contending with poverty and a deepening hunger crisis. In the midst of these hardships, public confidence in the system is diminishing.

    Will this transition affect any change in Pakistan’s volatile relationship with neighbors? Sadly No. More than the Pakistan Government, Pakistan Military is crafting foreign policy. As some political experts said before, for every state there will be an army. But in the case of Pakistan, the army owns that state. Yes, the Pakistan Military is still a powerful authority in that country. And they need peace? Never!!

    Whenever Pakistan grapples with internal obstacles, a recurrent pattern appears: a highly powerful military seizes power and pushes out any remaining democratic elements. The historical precedent of this occurred last time in 1999 when Pervez Musharraf orchestrated a military coup to overthrow the government led by Nawaz Sharif. This move was spurred by tensions with India, culminating in a war that Pakistan lost in the same year. Notably, this conflict, which was not necessarily desired by either the Pakistani or Indian government, was perceived as aligning with the preferences of the powerful Pakistan military.

    The dominance of the Pakistan military is visible even it democratic governments, they drive Pakistan’s external affairs. The Pakistan army is considered as one of the fiercest,  and they hold a large arsenal including nuclear weapons. So countries are often connecting with the Pakistan military instead of governments. The United States, intricately linked with the Pakistani army, has consistently endorsed the military’s expanding autonomy, often diverting authority from elected governments. Despite the state being officially an “Islamic republic,” the Pakistan Military’s proximity to both the USA and the UK suggests a closer alignment with Western interests. This alignment gains particular significance in light of the substantial debt owed to China. Faced with an overwhelming debt burden, Pakistan is compelled to open its markets and economy to China while simultaneously maintaining the military in alignment with U.S. interests. This dynamic played a role in Imran Khan’s removal from office as he leaned towards China over the U.S. 

    India, Pakistan’s largest neighbor, is viewed as a dangerous enemy.  The existence of Pakistan and the people’s loyalty to the military often hinge on the animosity towards India. During periods of internal turmoil, conflicts with India are used to rally the nation. The Kashmir issue is still fuming. And India’s current leadership under Modi has a strong stance in the case of Kashmir and they continuously cite the annexation of Pak occupied Kashmir to their side of Kashmir. And Pakistan uses separatism, Muslim extremist in India, to counter the growth of India. And the Military need to continue their strategy that will lead to further tensions. And in any case Pakistan military wants to topple Sharif government, they will choose a conflict with India.

    Iran, another neighbor of Pakistan who is ready to fight with the United States, engaged in air strikes within Pakistan’s borders last year. Although Pakistan retaliated, bringing an end to the immediate violence, the relationship remains strained. The longstanding issue of Balochistan, akin to the Kashmir problem with India, adds complexity. India and Iran appear to be close allies, making it imperative for the new government in Pakistan to prioritize peace with Iran while maintaining popular anti-India sentiments.

    The historical connections between the Taliban’s emirate in Afghanistan are facing a decline. The Taliban maintains strong affiliations with Islamic groups in Pakistan, particularly within the ethnic Pashtun community. Recently, this association has evolved into a potential threat to Pakistan’s stability. Certain factions within Pakistan advocate for the autonomy of Pashtun-majority regions, urging immediate intervention from the Pakistani military. In the years ahead, this particular region of Pakistan is poised to become the most precarious. Given historical precedents, there is a likelihood that various militia groups may challenge Pakistan’s authority in the area, even if a Taliban-led Afghanistan refrains from overt opposition due to their official ties.

    In Pakistan’s political arena, the military’s hegemony frequently obscures democracy. And this is the ongoing story. It’s clear, The Pakistan military operates as a distinct entity from the government and they shape foreign policies. Consequently, there is expected to be minimal change in Pakistan’s foreign policies in the coming years.  Nonetheless, enduring geopolitical hurdles pose challenges in fostering constructive relationships with neighboring nations. Issues such as radical Islam, the increasing influence of India, and the deterioration of Iran and the US relationships, may necessitate a shift in foreign policy. It is evident that Pakistan is navigating through turbulent times, raising concerns for the broader region.

  • India’s New Megacity in the Mouth of Malacca Strait: A Geopolitical Study

    India’s New Megacity in the Mouth of Malacca Strait: A Geopolitical Study

    India is setting up a pioneering initiative by allocating a substantial investment of $9 billion (£7 billion) to establish a dynamic port city on Great Nicobar Island. Positioned at the entrance of the narrow Malacca Strait, serving as a gateway to the Indian Ocean, this ambitious project represents a transformative effort aimed at reshaping the regional dynamics. The comprehensive plan envisions the evolution of the Indian Ocean island, home to 8,000 inhabitants, into what has been termed the ‘Hong Kong of India.’ Which involves the creation of an international shipping terminal, airport, power plant, military base, and industrial park, strategically aligned with considerations for tourism development.

    At the heart of this venture lies India’s dream for dominance over the Malacca trade route, adding layers of geopolitical significance. Predictably, environmentalists, often vocal opponents of infrastructure projects in developing nations, are already raising concerns about one of India’s most ambitious undertakings. Scholars from diverse global perspectives are collectively urging India to reassess its mega-construction plans for the island. Their cautionary message emphasizes that proceeding with the project could potentially deliver a ‘death sentence’ to the indigenous Shompen hunter-gatherer community residing there.

    India’s Ambitious Plan

    Nestled within the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago in India, Great Nicobar Island stands as a haven predominantly inhabited by tribes. As the largest and southernmost among the Nicobar Islands, its strategic positioning serves as a gateway to the vast Indian Ocean via the narrow Malacca Strait. Notably closer to Indonesia than the Indian Mainland, this island is located just 93 miles northwest of Aceh on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and approximately 800 miles east of Chennai on the Indian mainland.

    Great Nicobar accommodates a population of Shompen people estimated to be between 100 and 400. Encompassing 921 km2 (356 sq mi), this sparsely inhabited island is characterized by lush rainforests, earning renown for its rich and diverse wildlife. Presently, the only signs of development on this often-neglected island are an airstrip of 915m at Campbell Bay/Ten Lua on the East coast and at least one small shipping dock.

    The island’s history is marked by a significant event – the 2004 earthquake and tsunami – which brought dire consequences, including a day-long isolation from external interactions. Despite its strategic importance and ecological richness, Great Nicobar remains a largely undeveloped landscape, waiting to unfold its potential.

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has unveiled an ambitious investment plan of $9 billion (€8.38 billion) to revolutionize Great Nicobar, envisioning it as a pivotal military and trade hub. The proposed developments encompass an international container terminal, deep-water port, dual-use airport, power plant, and a greenfield township, with the potential to elevate the population to the hundreds of thousands. Positioned strategically near the Malacca Strait, one of the world’s most bustling shipping lanes, the envisioned port in Galathea Bay adds a critical dimension to the plan.

    There is a hopeful anticipation for the implementation of free trade policies, distinct laws, and a separate entity, similar to the Hong Kong model. Experts posit that the success of such island endeavors often hinges on exemptions from the mainland’s stringent regulations.

    This visionary proposal, brought forth on January 18, 2021, by India’s policy development team NITI Aayog and informed by a comprehensive feasibility report from AECOM India Private Limited, projects a flourishing population of 650,000 inhabitants on the island by 2050. Currently, the island is home to a modest 8,500 residents, while the entire archipelago, comprising over 500 islands, with only about 40 inhabited, accommodates a total population of approximately 380,000. The anticipated population surge raises valid concerns about the substantial ecological pressure it may exert on the island and its environs.

    A Stalemate For China

    The enduring and contentious border dispute between China and India, Which is unrecognized by either side, has led to significant confrontations on multiple occasions. As India strengthens its alliances with key players like Japan and the U.S., China watches with heightened concern. Part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative strategically invests in India’s neighbors grappling with political and economic instability, including Pakistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. This financial leverage not only provides China with a considerable advantage but also allows it to shape political alliances and influence media narratives against India.

    India’s foremost geopolitical challenge with China extends beyond the harsh geography and climate of the land border. It encompasses critical port leases, where vital transport hubs have fallen into Chinese hands due to the inability of recipient countries to repay substantial loans. Notably, Hamabanthotta, a key port leased to China, poses a significant threat to Indian navies, with reports of Chinese naval and spy ships utilizing these strategic locations. If tensions escalate, there is a potential for all Indian ports to be targeted from these Chinese-controlled ports, pushing these nations into a proxy war, given their high dependency on China.

    The economic repercussions are twofold: these Chinese ports not only divert trade routes between China and Europe away from traditional Indian ports like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Kochi but also contribute to an economic setback for India. Amidst this complex scenario, India’s newly proposed port city emerges as a potential game-changer. Positioned strategically at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, a critical juncture in the China-Europe trade route, it becomes a focal point in one of the world’s most vital economic conduits in terms of goods’ value and shipping volume. The Indian navy’s presence in these waters creates a strategic stalemate, compelling Chinese ships to navigate through this crucial point, providing India with both economic and military advantages. Despite China exploring alternative land routes through Russia and Pakistan, the conventional route through the Malacca Strait remains irreplaceable. Any Indian blockade in the Malacca Strait could significantly impact the Chinese economy.

    The West Bloc’s Opposition

    The Western powers, notably the USA and UK, exerting their influence in the Indian Ocean, harbor reservations about India akin to their concerns about China. Despite their inclination to counterbalance China, they are cautious about empowering India too much. Western nations, alongside China, are wary of India gaining an upper hand in the trade route that facilitates 60 percent of global maritime trade. In contrast to the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait region doesn’t currently pose many problems.  because there are no unilateral claims.   It includes the territorial waters of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and India, which is a major player in the area. Even if no one country wants to rule the route by itself, India’s bold actions on Great Nicobar, which were previously disregarded, indicate a change in its strategic priorities. With this action, India’s influence in the Malacca Strait is expected to grow. 

    As the initial stages of discontent, the US and UK media expressed numerous reservations about the Nicobar project. Concerns have been prominently raised, particularly in relation to the Great Nicobar actions, with a focus on potential impacts on the Shompen community, deforestation, and seismic activity in the region. This scrutiny has been extensively covered by sources such as The Guardian, BBC, and Deutsche Welle. Evidently, Western nations, disapproving of India’s approach in Great Nicobar, are adhering to their established method of critiquing infrastructure projects in developing countries.. The alignment of India’s trajectory with China’s stirs expectations among Western powers that India will assertively seek a more substantial share in the region. This, in turn, is foreseen to directly impact the trade flowing through this pivotal route.

    In Summary

    A significant geopolitical shift looms on the horizon if India proceeds with its Great Nicobar plan. This strategic move promises an unprecedented advantage for India in the Malacca Strait. China, finding itself potentially blocked from the Indian Ocean, faces a challenge in advancing its cooperation with India unless its trade route is jeopardized in an unprecedented manner. The impact could be substantial for smaller nations heavily dependent on the trade route. Therefore, the persisting rivalry for influence between China and India in these smaller countries is expected to endure.

    It is evident that India is strategically deploying its trump card against China, presenting a formidable challenge. Interestingly, this shift is not welcomed by Western nations, adding an intriguing layer to the evolving geopolitical landscape

  • The Downfall of the Indian Opposition Alliance

    The Downfall of the Indian Opposition Alliance

    Narendra Modi and the BJP is in a cruise mode.  With the impending Lok Sabha (House of Commons) elections on the horizon, a multitude of factors fortify their confidence in an enduring dominance. Modi’s magnetic leadership, forward-looking developmental initiatives, resonance with Hindu sentiment, and substantial financial backing collectively underpin what appears to be an unimpeded march toward electoral success.

    Yet, at the heart of Modi’s seemingly seamless trajectory lies a conspicuous vacuum— the absence of a formidable opposition in the Lok Sabha. The official recognition of an opposition, necessitating at least 10% representation, is notably vacant in India’s current political landscape. This void amplifies the BJP’s influence, leaving the opposition space remarkably unfilled.

    The primary opposition force, the venerable Congress party, grapples with substantial weaknesses that have diminished its efficacy. Despite these challenges, the Congress seeks to mount a credible challenge to the BJP by forging alliances with various state parties under the umbrella of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. 

    In its initial phases, the alliance displayed commendable performance. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, commonly known as I.N.D.I.A., has emerged as a united front announced by leaders representing 28 political parties, gearing up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The acronym I.N.D.I.A. was proposed during a pivotal meeting in Bengaluru, where leaders from all 28 participating parties unanimously embraced this symbolic title.

    The inaugural meeting of opposition parties, a momentous gathering in Patna, Bihar, was chaired by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on June 23, 2023. Attended by 16 opposition parties, this assembly marked the introduction of the proposal for a new alliance. Following this milestone, the second meeting unfolded in Bengaluru, Karnataka, on July 17 and 18, 2023, under the chairmanship of UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi. During this session, the formal acceptance of the alliance’s formation took place, with an additional ten parties joining the coalition. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance was officially christened, and plans were set for the third meeting, scheduled to occur in Mumbai.

    The third assembly took place in Mumbai between August 31, 2023, and September 1, 2023. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and chief ministers from five different states were among the notable attendees. After two days of intense discussion, the coalition reviewed key electoral issues related to the approaching general elections in great detail. During these talks, the details of the coordination committee were carefully outlined, and a complete three-point resolution was eventually adopted. This resolution is a significant step forward for the cooperative projects carried out by various political organizations uniting under the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. It unequivocally declares the alliance’s commitment to working together to address the many issues that the general elections in India in 2024 are expected to present. 

    The fourth assembly, convened in New Delhi on December 19, 2023, honed in on pivotal elements encompassing seat-sharing, joint rallies, and the selection of a prime ministerial face and/or convenor for the alliance. A noteworthy resolution was embraced, underscoring the imperative to maximize the use of VVPATs in the imminent elections. The emphasis lay on self-verification by voters and the separate storage of VVPAT slips. Setting deadlines for seat-sharing arrangements, the alliance declared nationwide protests against the suspensions of opposition MPs in the Indian Parliament on December 22. While plans for a grand joint rally in Patna on January 30, the death anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi, were alluded to, they remained unconfirmed.

    However, the trajectory took an unexpected turn with the advent of the fifth meeting, conducted virtually, with some leaders unable to participate. Post-meeting, Mallikarjun Kharge, the president of the Indian National Congress, assumed the mantle of alliance chairperson. Seat-sharing discussions took center stage, with the Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, declining the role of national convenor.

    As the electoral momentum initially surged, the later days unveiled the burgeoning vulnerabilities of the alliance. The dearth of robust leadership, the failure to establish a cohesive minimum program, and internal avarice within participating parties are now precipitating the coalition’s collapse. At the national level, the Indian National Congress stands as the sole representative within the alliance. However, the party grapples with internal weaknesses, marked by the absence of a prominent leader and the dominance of the Gandhi family, reluctant to relinquish control to outsiders. Regrettably, this familial stronghold has yet to recognize the urgency of the situation, failing to formulate effective policies to counter the formidable presence of Modi, despite being a national-level party. The intricate dynamics of this political landscape underscore the critical need for a resilient and strategic opposition to navigate the challenges presented by the current political climate.

    While on paper, other collaborators such as the Aam Aadmi Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and former national parties like the All India Trinamool Congress and Nationalist Congress Party carry or carried a nationalist label, their influence remains largely confined to their regional strongholds. Exploiting the weakened state of the Congress, these parties seek to contest and expand their influence beyond their traditional territories, a move restricted by the Congress itself.

    The complications intensify as regional parties with conflicting national interests undermine the broader image and objectives of the Congress. The alliance with the DMK, with its anti-Hindu stance and leaders making divisive statements, casts a negative shadow on the national-level standing of the Congress. Personal agendas, exemplified by JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar, further contribute to leaders withdrawing from the alliance. Modi’s strategic overtures, including awards for local parties and their leaders, have enticed collaboration with the BJP-led NDA alliance, leading parties like RLD and the National Conference to consider exiting and join NDA. A growing number of parties are preparing to contest the elections independently rather than aligning with the BJP.

    Genuine democracy necessitates the presence of an opposition. India, proudly hailed as the world’s largest democracy with a populace exceeding 100 billion, fails to meet the criteria of a commendable democratic model in the eyes of Western think tanks. The absence of a robust opposition in India poses the risk of transforming the nation into a de facto single-party state, as the BJP champions the notion of Ramarajya, departing from the modern state concept embraced by Western counterparts.

    The ideological architects behind the BJP seem to dismiss the strength of a diverse and vibrant opposition, opting instead to emphasize a narrative that weakens the West and underscores perceived conflicts with Islam. To safeguard the essence of Indian democracy, it is imperative for the opposition to awaken to the current scenario. However, the very parties constituting the opposition, driven by personal interests and avarice, appear poised to precipitate the collapse of the INDIA alliance. This potential disintegration could inadvertently pave the way for a third term for Narendra Modi, if not counteracted promptly. The intricate interplay among political forces in India emphasizes the vital significance of a robust opposition to safeguard the democratic values that characterize the nation’s democracy.

  • India and UAE Agree for a Trans-Continental Trade Corridor to Counter the BRI

    India and UAE Agree for a Trans-Continental Trade Corridor to Counter the BRI

    In a momentous diplomatic development, India and the United Arab Emirates have formalized a groundbreaking agreement, establishing a trade corridor strategically linking Europe and India through the Middle East via sea and rail routes. This calculated bypass aims to navigate away from Chinese funding, mitigate pirate threats, and avoid the Suez Canal rush. Unveiled during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Gulf states, this ambitious initiative carries the endorsement of both the United States and the European Union.

    The Indian foreign ministry issued a statement detailing the framework agreement, although specific terms remained notably scarce. Emphasizing that this endeavor not only builds upon existing understandings and collaboration but also seeks to deepen cooperation between India and the UAE for the enhancement of regional connectivity. Initially introduced in September, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi, the corridor’s expansive scope stretches from India, crossing the Arabian Sea to the UAE, and further extending through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel before ultimately reaching Europe.

    The narrative of the India-Middle East Economic Corridor unfolds against the backdrop of a persistent four-month conflict in Gaza, introducing disruptions to U.S.-backed initiatives that seek to deepen integration between Israel and its Arab neighbors. In response to the ongoing regional unrest, Saudi Arabia, a pivotal player, has opted to suspend normalization plans. Notably, inquiries seeking clarification on the specifics of the agreement from the UAE foreign ministry have remained unanswered.

    During their meeting, characterized by Indian Prime Minister Modi as a fraternal relationship, both he and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan expressed optimism despite the formidable challenges in the region.

    In heralding the establishment of a contemporary trade route, this initiative elegantly resurrects historical pathways once traversed by ancient civilizations – the Romans, Greeks, Venetians, Arabs, and Indians. These routes, integral for centuries, regrettably fell into neglect following the opening of the Cape route and the Suez Canal. According to reports, the modern project unfolds with the development of cutting-edge ports, railways, and special economic zones. The unveiling of this initiative took place on the grand stage of the G20 summit in India, where President Biden’s plan not only secured the support of the United States but also garnered backing from the European Union, France, Italy, and Germany.

    The proposed plan outlines two distinctive routes – an east corridor linking India to the Gulf Arab states and a northern corridor connecting the Gulf states to Europe. Beyond showcasing the United States’ adeptness in rallying its Middle East allies against China’s ascendancy, this ambitious project also underscores the Gulf states’ intricate balancing act between long standing allies like the U.S. and emerging partners like China, all within the framework of an evolving global order. Analysts discern this strategic move as a direct challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a monumental infrastructure project launched by Beijing a decade ago to forge global connectivity. Intriguingly, three of the nations involved in the new corridor are already members of the BRI, potentially placing them in a delicate position. Italy, a G7 member, is also part of the BRI, but reports suggest that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is exploring ways to strengthen ties with China while contemplating a “soft” exit from the BRI—a move deemed unconventional by some analysts.

    The recently formalized framework agreement between India and the UAE appears to signify a joint commitment by both nations to advance their ambitious plan for establishing a corridor.  Beyond the corridor agreement, the UAE and India have solidified their collaboration through the signing of a bilateral investment treaty. This comprehensive partnership extends to cooperation agreements covering diverse areas such as electrical interconnection, trade, and digital infrastructure. Prime Minister Modi, making his seventh visit to the Gulf state in nearly a decade, is poised to address the Indian diaspora at an Abu Dhabi stadium and participate in a summit in Dubai. Additionally, he is scheduled to inaugurate the first-ever stone-built Hindu temple in the Middle East in Abu Dhabi, underscoring the deepening ties between India and one of its major trading partners.

    The envisioned trade corridor is anticipated to streamline movements significantly, serving as a linchpin for various interests. This ambitious project acts as a tool for the United States, seamlessly connecting all relevant stakeholders in the region. For the Middle East, the corridor transcends mere business; it is inherently intertwined with politics. The financial aspect is pivotal in the collaboration between Israel and the Gulf states. This agreement ensures their alignment with the United States, as financial influxes consolidate their cooperative stance.

    Amidst the Biden era and the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Gulf states’ relationship with the U.S. has experienced a slight diminishment. However, there’s a subtle yet discernible shift in their stance, displaying a newfound interest in engaging with Russia and China. The hope lingers that this project will foster common interests with Israel.

    From a European perspective, this route promises an uninterrupted supply chain, mitigating concerns about pirate attacks, Suez Canal blockages, and political obstacles. Furthermore, the project attracts infrastructure investments from the region, providing Europe access to India’s expansive market.

    For India, the corridor is more than an economic conduit; it symbolizes a strategic move to bolster power in countering China, perceived as a potential adversary in their future trajectory. This economic trade corridor, therefore, serves as a catalyst for extensive political cooperation, poised to have a profound impact on the unfolding dynamics of the 21st century.

  • India’s Lok Sabha Election 2024; Who Will Challenge Modi?

    India’s Lok Sabha Election 2024; Who Will Challenge Modi?

    • General elections are expected to be held in India between April and May 2024 to elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking third term with Bharatiya Janata Party. Opposition yet to choose their leader.

    India, renowned as the world’s largest democracy with a voter base exceeding 800 million, is gearing up to elect its next central government in the ensuing months. The incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Damodar Das Modi, a prominent figure in the realm of Hindu populism, leads his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with confidence through the political landscape. The recent state elections, often likened to semi-finals by the Indian media in anticipation of the Lok Sabha (House of Commons) elections, unveiled a discernible trend. In the prevailing scenario, the continuity of Narendra Modi in the Prime Minister’s office appears highly probable. However, making definitive predictions in the intricate tapestry of Indian elections, influenced by factors such as caste, emotions, and more, carries inherent risks. This article delves into the probabilities, obstacles, and strategies of each national party striving for success in the upcoming “Lok Sabha” elections.

    Lok Sabha Election 2023

    The Election Commission of India (ECI) is poised to unveil the election schedule for the 18th Lok Sabha, the lower house where constituents elect their representatives. The tenure of the 17th Lok Sabha is expected to conclude on June 16, 2024, but the prospect of an early election looms, fueled by the BJP’s heightened support following victories in state elections and a surge in Hindu backing after the Ayodhya Temple Inauguration. With a total of 543 seats, securing 272 forms a majority.

    As the 2024 Indian general elections draw near, the political landscape assumes an increasingly bipolar nature. Two major alliances have taken center stage: the incumbent National Democratic Alliance and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. Six national parties are in contention: Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Bahujan Samaj Party, National People’s Party, and Aam Aadmi Party. All parties, with the exception of the BSP, have aligned themselves with one of the two major alliances.

    India’s Lok Sabha Election 2024; Who Will Challenge Modi?

    Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

    Current Seats: 290 / 543

    Ideology : Hindu Nationalism

    Chances: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) asserts itself as a major political party in India, commanding substantial representation in both the Parliament of India and state legislatures. standing as one of the country’s two major political players alongside the Indian National Congress. Since 2014, it has held the reins of power in India, with Narendra Modi steering the ship as the incumbent Prime Minister. Aligned with right-wing tenets, the BJP maintains intricate ideological and organisational ties with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a volunteer paramilitary group. The party’s policy architecture finds its roots in Hindutva, a Hindu nationalist ideology. 

    The BJP touts various strengths, standing as the largest party, the ruling party, and the most financially robust party, all under the guidance of a strong leadership. Its broad support base is largely a result of Narendra Modi’s enduring popularity. With a well-organised structure, significant support from influential business figures, and minimal internal discord, the BJP presents itself as a potent political force. The party’s strength is further enhanced by initiatives in infrastructure development and the promotion of Hindu fundamentalism. The recent construction of a temple at the Ayodhya site, replacing the Babri Masjid allegedly demolished by former Muslim rulers, has garnered additional support for the BJP. The media also plays a pivotal role by offering substantial support to the party.

    Challenges: Since India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, no leader has secured a consecutive third election victory. In the face of a desire for change, people may opt for a new leader. Despite concerns such as rising prices and unemployment, the BJP skillfully manages to divert attention through Hindu-centric propaganda. The lack of significant challenges from the opposition allows the BJP to maintain its position. However, if opposing political parties successfully unite and strategically split the votes, it could impact the BJP’s chances of securing a clear majority. Nevertheless, the BJP remains the frontrunner with the highest likelihood of forming the government.

    Predicted Seats : 240-270

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    Indian National Congress (INC)

    Current Seats: 47 / 543

    Ideology: Secularism

    Chances: The venerable political institution, the Indian National Congress (INC), commonly known as the Congress Party, holds a significant and extensive presence in Indian politics. Established in 1885, the Congress emerged as the primary driver of the Indian independence movement. Presently, it serves as the principal opposition party, maintaining a widespread presence throughout the country. The Congress raises concerns against the government, citing issues like escalating unemployment, privatisation, price hikes, and growing societal divisions. Despite the backlash facing recent years, there persists a sentiment favouring the Nehru family, and they expect anti-BJP votes have the potential to consolidate through alliances formed with other anti-BJP parties.

    Challenges: In Indian politics, leaders are revered, yet the Congress party faces a dearth of figures who can rival Modi’s charisma. Rahul Gandhi, despite being part of a political lineage, struggles to command the recognition enjoyed by his father and grandmother. Additionally, the growing emphasis on secularism has led to perceptions of the party as more aligned with Islamist ideals. The party grapples with challenges in terms of limited television support and a comparatively weak presence on social media, compounding its issues.

    Predicted Seats: 60-110

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    Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)

    Current Seats: 8/543

    Ideology: Social Equality

    Chances:The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) stands as a political force on the national stage in India, dedicated to advocating for Bahujans, including Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes (OBC), and religious minorities. Established in 1984 by Kanshi Ram, the party sought to unite the diverse Bahujan communities, which were then divided into more than 1000 different castes.

    Despite facing a challenging phase marked by the absence of state governance, limited presence in various states, minimal representation in the Lok Sabha, and a lack of alignment with major alliances, the BSP still maintains a considerable vote percentage. As the election reaches its final stages, there is potential for the BSP to form an alliance with the Congress-led INDIA alliance. Capitalising on its strongholds in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, and others, the BSP could deliver a robust performance in the Lok Sabha Election.

    Challenges: The decision-making of Mayawati, the supreme leader, is proving detrimental to the party, resulting in a decline in its influence. The party’s footprint is diminishing, and it has not yet formed a significant alliance crucial for competing in the upcoming Lok Sabha election. Challenges include a dearth of policy development, insufficient funding, and a deficiency in strong leadership.

    Seat Prediction: 5-15

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    Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)

    Current Seats: 1/ 543

    Ideology: Populism

    Chances:The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is a political entity in India, established in 2012, by Arvind Kejriwal and his associates in the aftermath of the 2011 Indian anti-corruption movement. Currently, AAP holds the governing position in the Indian state of Punjab and the union territory of Delhi.  In the upcoming Lok Sabha election, the Aam Aadmi Party is participating in collaboration with the Indian National Congress under the INDIA alliance. Through this strategic partnership, AAP aims to consolidate anti-BJP votes.

    Challenges: The party leader, Kejriwal, is facing the potential of being charged in a scam case. Additionally, in Punjab, a key stronghold of the party, there is a lack of cooperation with the Congress, leading to the likelihood of votes being split.

    Seat Prediction: 5-15

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    Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM)

    Current Seats: 3/ 543

    Ideology: Communism

    Chances: The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) holding the status of the largest communist party in the country both in terms of membership and electoral seats. It stands as one of the national parties of India. The 34-year-long tenure of the CPI(M)-led Left Front in governing West Bengal marked the world’s lengthiest democratically elected communist-led government. The party has, at various times, been the third-largest in parliament. Presently, its prominence is primarily in the state of Kerala. As being a part of the INDIA alliance, the CPIM’s impact is expected to be significant in collecting anti-BJP votes in the contested seats.

    Challenges: The party’s significant presence is confined to Kerala. Workers and supporters have distanced themselves from the party in recent years. In a country marked by deep divisions based on caste and religion, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) stands minimal chances of making a substantial impact across India.

    Seat Prediction: 5-10

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    National People’s Party (NPP)

    Current Seats: 1/ 543

    Ideology: Cultural Conservatism

    Chances: The National People’s Party is a political party at the national level in India, primarily wielding influence in the state of Meghalaya. Established by P. A. Sangma following his expulsion from the NCP, the party attained national status in 2019, becoming the first political party from Northeastern India to achieve this recognition. The NPP is aligned with the BJP under the NDA alliance. Leveraging support from the Christian community, the party can also capitalise on developmental initiatives introduced by Modi in the region.

    Challenges: The party lacks any election strategies unless it contributes seat to the BJP-led alliance.

    Seat Prediction : 0-1

    In Summary

    The Indian elections take on global significance, given the nation’s status as the world’s fifth-largest economy and the largest democracy by participation. Narendra Modi’s vision includes expanding India’s influence globally, with aspirations for the country to secure its place as the world’s third-largest economy and a formidable global force. Consequently, the election results are bound to resonate beyond India’s borders. Some anticipate that a third term for Narendra Modi could mark a shift towards India’s identity as a Hindu-centric nation, departing from its current status as a modern secular state.

    The election results remain unpredictable, characterised by potential happenings before the election date  and its impact on sentiments of 80 million people. The days leading up to the elections are pivotal, shaping the trajectory of India’s future. In a society where opinions can swiftly shift, particularly in the realm of social media, making definitive forecasts becomes a formidable task. So,  Let’s wait for the biggest election festival of India.