Tag: Israel

  • Iran Is Forced, But Are They Capable?

    Iran Is Forced, But Are They Capable?

    Iran is deeply humiliated by Israel’s killing of the Hamas chief in Tehran. Although it was anticipated that Israel might target him, the attack did not occur while he was in Gaza or Qatar. Instead, Israel chose to act when he arrived in Iran for the new president’s inauguration. As a major player in the Islamic world and the only country actively opposing Israel, Iran views this as a significant humiliation. This incident is not unprecedented; Israel has previously targeted several high-ranking Iranian officials, and some experts even speculate that Ebrahim Raisi might be a target. Iran’s regime feels compelled to retaliate to maintain its strong image domestically and its status as a defender of Islam globally. While previous responses have involved ceremonial missile launches, such a response may no longer suffice. But are they capable?

    Iran is undeniably a superpower in the Middle East, boasting a formidable military force. As of 2024, the Iranian Armed Forces are the second-largest in the region, surpassed only by the Egyptian Armed Forces in terms of active troops. Iran’s military consists of approximately 425,000 active-duty personnel and an additional 100,000 reserves and trained personnel available when needed. These numbers do not include the Law Enforcement Command or the Basij. Despite its numerical advantage over Israel, Iran faces more challenges than opportunities. 

    Most of Iran’s imported weapons are American systems acquired during the shah’s regime before the Islamic Revolution. Following international sanctions, Iran initiated a strong domestic rearmament program, resulting in an increasingly indigenous military inventory. By the 2000s, Iran had become an exporter of arms, although the effectiveness of its domestically manufactured items remains. The country has invested significantly in an ambitious ballistic and cruise missile program to enhance its mid-range strike capability, though updates on its progress are scarce. Additionally, Iran produces a variety of arms and munitions, including tanks, armored vehicles, drones, and an array of naval assets and aerial defense systems, which could be crucial in a conflict.

    Iran has purchased some munitions from Russia in addition to its indigenous weapons. However, since Russia is currently at war, it cannot meet Iran’s demand. It is uncertain whether other superpowers in Asia, such as China and India, will supply munitions to Iran. Supplying munitions would likely invite U.S. sanctions, so Islamic countries will probably refrain from doing so.

    The biggest challenge for Iran is that it does not share a border with Israel, so the size of its army does not provide an advantage. War through waterways is possible, but on all the routes through land and sea, U.S. allies are present and will likely stop them. Through the air, missiles are available, and they have been launched at Israel before, but Israel successfully blocked them. The only way that might work for Iran now is a joint attack with its allies in the region. However, there are doubts that these countries will cooperate with Iran now because they would suffer more than Iran if they intervened. However, it is certain that militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen will fight alongside Iran, and a joint attack with them is the only possibility for Iran. Iran is trying its best to partner with Islamic countries.

    Iran has called in foreign ambassadors to Tehran to assert its moral duty to hold Israel accountable for what it views as provocations and violations of international law following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Tehran has also requested an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Wednesday to seek backing from Arab states for potential retaliatory measures against Israel. Many Gulf leaders have expressed their condemnation of Israel’s actions but are advising Iran to show restraint.

    Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Security Council Secretary, arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iranian leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian. While discussions are advancing quickly, it remains uncertain how many countries will support Iran in its war against Israel.

    Experts suggest that Iran is striving to maintain its image. To potentially promote peace, the U.S. might indirectly assist Iran by allowing a token attack, enabling Iran to claim retaliation. Iran could then shift blame to other Gulf states. At this stage, a full-scale war seems unlikely, as Iran recognizes the significant challenges and potential internal problems that such a conflict would create. Although missile strikes or proxy attacks might continue, the likelihood of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains low. 

  • What’s next for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic?

    What’s next for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic?

    It was a significant week for Israel; they humiliated Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic all in the same week. They killed Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, at a safe house during his visit to the Iranian capital, Tehran, just hours after killing Hamas’s military commander, Mohammed Deif, at a safe house in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. The Qatar-based official’s death is likely to affect progress in talks for a ceasefire and hostage release deal, which were already faltering. It appears that Israel is gaining the upper hand, with Arab countries uninterested in regional escalation, and the UN is a big humor.

    Hamas, which began the conflict with a brutal attack on October 7th by crossing into Israeli territory, is now facing severe repercussions. Their leaders are being consistently assassinated, even as they flee to Syria, Iran, or Qatar. Hamas’s plan to negotiate using hostages has already failed, and the people of Gaza, who initially celebrated the attack, are now suffering the most. According to Hamas authorities, the death toll in Gaza has approached 40,000 and the situation seems far from being resolved, as indicated by Netanyahu’s address to the U.S. Congress.

    Ismail Haniyeh, who lost all his family members in Israel’s retaliatory actions, was an important figure in the Hamas movement. While Hamas will likely regroup and survive, this war has left them with a leadership vacuum. Salah al-Arouri, considered one of Haniyeh’s deputies, was killed in a strike in Lebanon in January, and Marwan Issa, Hamas’s deputy military chief, was reportedly killed in Nuseirat in March. On Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that an airstrike in Khan Younis last month successfully targeted Hamas’s military chief, Mohammed Deif.

    In the past, Hamas used a secret ballot in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and abroad to choose their political chief, but that is currently impossible. Instead, Khaled Meshaal, who is currently the head of the Hamas office in the Palestinian diaspora and was Haniyeh’s predecessor, is likely to step back into the role, at least as the acting politburo leader. Khalil al-Hayya, a Qatar-based deputy who has led Hamas’s ceasefire negotiation team, is from Gaza and is reportedly well-regarded by officials in Tehran, which positions him well to succeed Haniyeh.

    Even if a peace-seeking leader were to emerge within Hamas, peace in Gaza remains elusive. Prime Minister Netanyahu has consistently affirmed that the military operation will continue until all Hamas militants are eliminated. Israel claims to have eliminated half of the leadership of Hamas’s military wing, including six senior brigade commanders and more than 20 battalion commanders, and to have killed or wounded 14,000 militants. With the collapse of the hostage deals Hamas was relying on, it is becoming evident that this is the endgame for Hamas.

    Hezbollah, engaged in conflict with Israel alongside Hamas, is facing significant setbacks despite their control over certain territories. They have suffered major losses from Israel’s targeted strikes, with the most recent incident involving the death of a key militant leader who was believed to be secure in a residential area of Beirut. This event is a humiliation not only for Hezbollah but also for Lebanon. Last week, Hezbollah reportedly sent a warning through U.S. mediators that any strikes on Beirut would cross a red line and lead to retaliation against Tel Aviv. Despite this warning, Israel seems to have disregarded it and continues its hunt of Hezbollah leaders, exacerbating the group’s troubles.

    The Guardian of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, led the prayers over the coffins of Haniyeh and his bodyguard, who were draped in traditional black and white Palestinian scarves. Iran is also facing turmoil due to escalating tensions with Israel. Many believe that the death of former Islamic Republic President Ebrahim Raisi was planned and executed by Israel, along with other reported deaths from targeted killings. Despite attempts at retaliation, Iran has been unable to take effective action against Israel. However, Iran appears to be increasingly enraged. Speakers at Haniyeh’s funeral, which was attended by Khamenei, Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian, Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Hossein Salami, and senior members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, vowed to avenge his death. While Israel has already launched a new wave of attacks in Lebanon, Iran’s response is of significant interest. It remains to be seen whether Iran will continue its proxy warfare using militants in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, or if it will escalate to a direct conflict with Israel or engage in combined warfare similar to the 1960s.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t have any worries on escalating situations and they announced on Thursday that his  country is fully prepared to respond to any aggression from any party. Although international officials have limited influence over Israel and Iran, they are working to de-escalate the cycle of retaliation and prevent a broader conflict.

  • Israel-Lebanon Tensions Mount as Beirut Is Hit

    Israel-Lebanon Tensions Mount as Beirut Is Hit

    Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have been exchanging fire across the border since last October, with daily confrontations gradually intensifying. Deaths and casualties have been reported from both sides, and thousands of people have been displaced from their homes on both sides of the border. The conflict has been between Israel and Hezbollah, not Lebanon. There has been no attack from Israel outside of southern Lebanon, which is a stronghold of Hezbollah. However, it has been clear that if either Israel or Hezbollah escalates the conflict, Lebanon, an already fragile country, will be forced to join. This is now feared to be happening.

    Yesterday, Israel attacked a suburb of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Israel described it as a targeted operation to kill Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukur, who is wanted as a criminal. But, Lebanon is unhappy about the extension of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict into its densely populated capital city. The attack resulted in civilian casualties. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, three people, including two children, were killed, and 74 were injured in the attack.

    Lebanon’s cabinet is reportedly holding important meetings to discuss the attack, which the caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, condemned as a criminal act by Israel. In his statement, he added that the Israeli killing machine has not been satisfied by targeting the south of Lebanon and the Bekaa; it has now reached the heart of the capital, Beirut, just meters away from one of the largest hospitals and near the city’s important international airport.

    .In reality, Beirut had been bracing for Israel’s response to a rocket strike on a children’s football match in the occupied Golan Heights three days earlier. However, the attack on Beirut came as a surprise. The Golan Heights attack was attributed to Hezbollah, with both Israel and the U.S. blaming the group, though Hezbollah denied responsibility. Global leaders engaged in intensive diplomacy on Sunday to persuade Israel against escalating attacks on Lebanon, amid fears of a broader regional conflict. The U.S. has been spearheading global diplomatic efforts to prevent Israel from targeting Beirut or Lebanese infrastructure, aiming to avert a full-scale regional war. Although it was anticipated that Israel would retaliate, the assault on the capital city has left Lebanon feeling humiliated as an independent nation. Efforts are now underway to work with Lebanon to de-escalate the situation.

    Despite widespread anger expressed on social media, the Lebanese government is actively working to ease tensions. Lebanon’s foreign minister called the strike on Beirut a shock, given prior assurances from Israel’s allies that the country was planning a limited response that would not escalate into war. Lebanon plans to file a complaint with the UN Security Council and has requested Hezbollah to carry out a proportional retaliation. He stressed the need to end the cycle of destruction, killing, and death. In a briefing, Hagari noted that Hezbollah’s ongoing aggression and brutal attacks are pulling Lebanon and the entire Middle East into a broader escalation. It looks like Israel also aims to resolve hostilities without a larger war, the IDF is fully prepared for any scenario. 

    Both parties are growing increasingly vigilant as the situation in the region reaches a state of heightened tension. Tensions in  Lebanon have escalated to its peak since Saturday’s rocket strike on a town that killed 12 children playing football. Queues formed at petrol stations across the city as people filled their cars in anticipation of further escalation. Many airlines have canceled flights to Beirut, with Greece’s Aegean Airlines and Germany’s Condor joining Royal Jordanian, Air France, and Lufthansa in suspending services. But the chance of full scale war is less, because both parties will suffer.

    Hezbollah will need to retaliate now, and Israel will follow…

  • China, the New Global Mediator, Unites Palestinian Factions

    China, the New Global Mediator, Unites Palestinian Factions

    Even though it has reasons, Gaza is facing one of the worst humanitarian crises. So-called modern valued countries in the West have failed to address the issue, or they fear Israel. Arab countries are found ineffective, and Islamists exploit the situation to cultivate hatred and boost the revival of notorious Islamist organizations. Though everyone, including Arab countries, now knows that a two-state solution is the most feasible solution, the West can’t even suggest it to Israel, as Israel plans to annex Gaza and the West Bank and eliminate all threats.

    At the same time, The Palestinian Authority  is split, with different factions focusing on personal interests rather than addressing the basic needs of their people. However, an interesting development has emerged: China has decided to unite these divided factions. China has effectively mediated talks and meetings to consolidate the Palestinian factions, advancing their two-state demand with greater assertiveness and authority.

    For the Palestinian cause and the movement towards a two-state solution, this is a major development. On Tuesday, leaders from Notorious Hamas, the West Bank’s main party Fatah, and other Palestinian factions reached an agreement after three days of talks in Beijing. They have pledged to enhance collaboration, continue discussions, and establish a national unity government at an unspecified future date. This agreement between Fatah and Hamas represents a significant advancement from previous agreements since their 2007 conflict, which led to Hamas ousting Fatah from the Gaza Strip. The “Beijing Declaration,” signed by 14 Palestinian factions, is a notable step forward in negotiations, though it lacks specific details on how to achieve Palestinian unification. Notably, the agreement emphasizes that the factions should work together to unify Palestinian institutions in the West Bank and Gaza and prepare for national elections.

    This move is a significant diplomatic win for China, who are seeking global leadership status. They have achieved what Western countries and Arab states, despite having closer relationships with the factions, could not. Bringing long-fighting factions to the negotiating table and proposing more practical plans has bolstered China’s status as a global mediator and increased its influence in the Middle East.

    However, there are many criticisms. Some argue that this move does not affect Israel’s actions in Gaza and that without including Israel in the negotiations, it is a waste of time. The involvement of Hamas, responsible for the brutal attack last October, which killed, raped, and kidnapped many and caused chaos in Israel, is unacceptable to both Israel and the US. Any collaboration with Hamas is unlikely to be accepted by Israel, as evidenced by the collapse of previous peace plans pushed by the United States. Israel’s politics are also now linked to actions against Hamas. On Tuesday, Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz reacted angrily to the inclusion of Hamas in the Beijing Declaration. In a post on X, Katz stated that the agreement for joint control of Gaza after the war “won’t happen because Hamas’s rule will be crushed.”

    Although there are doubts about whether the meetings of Palestinian factions – due to their lack of popular support, corrupt leaders, and luxurious lifestyles abroad – can bring real change in Palestinian lives or unity, China’s emergence as a global mediator and key power broker in the Middle East is nonetheless significant. China has shown increasing interest in the Middle East in recent years and is trying to assert more influence in the region. Last year, Beijing successfully mediated a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, raising concerns in Washington about the diminishing influence of the US in the region. Therefore, China’s involvement in this situation appears less focused on resolving the crisis itself and more on Beijing’s effort to establish itself as an alternative global leader to the US.

  • Is the Israel-Houthi Conflict Intensifying?

    Is the Israel-Houthi Conflict Intensifying?

    Israel was stunned last week by a drone attack on its second-largest city, Tel Aviv. The drone, launched by the notorious Houthi militia, an Islamist organization operating from Yemen, penetrated Israel’s renowned surveillance radars and missile defense system, hit its target, and caused the death of an Israeli citizen while injuring multiple others. This incident was a significant embarrassment for Israel, which prides itself on its defense technologies. Although Israel conducted powerful airstrikes the day after officials vowed revenge, devastating the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah, an important location for the Houthi-led government in Yemen, Israelis now realize these militias can strike them by breaching defense systems. While the Houthis and other Islamists are celebrating their attack on Israel, there is global concern that Yemen, along with Lebanon and Syria, might escalate into a war with Israel. However, this will not be an easy task for Israel.

    The Houthis, an Islamic insurgent group linked with Iran, control a significant area in Yemen along its Red Sea coastal region, a vital trade route. They have long supported Palestine and Gaza, pledging to eliminate Israel. They have allied with Hamas and Hezbollah, two Islamist organizations with the same goal of establishing a Palestinian Muslim state from the river to the sea. The Houthi militia has targeted ships in the Gulf of Aden and disrupted maritime activity in the Red Sea for months in response to Israeli attacks in Gaza, garnering support from the Islamic world as they advocate for Islam more than the so-called wealthy Islamic kingdoms.

    Although numerous strikes against Israel and Western-linked ships have severely disrupted business at key Israeli ports, the recent strike on Tel Aviv was the first direct hit on Israel since Houthi rebels began targeting the country with missiles and drones last year. All previous attacks had been intercepted until Friday’s strike. The Houthis immediately claimed responsibility and boasted that they had used a new type of drone undetectable by radar and air defense systems.

    Israeli officials downplayed the Houthis’ claim, attributing it to “Human Error” rather than the Houthis capability to conduct a long-range attack that skillfully evaded Israel’s technology. Chief military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari stated that the drone had been detected by air defenses, but an “Error” prevented its interception.

    On Saturday, the very next day, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that its fighter jets had struck military targets in Hodeidah Port in Yemen “In response to the hundreds of attacks carried out against the state of Israel in recent months”. The airstrikes targeted a refinery and electricity infrastructure, igniting a massive blaze. Reports indicate that three people were killed and 87 wounded in the strikes on the oil facilities, though this has not been confirmed. Later in the evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the attack, stating that the port was targeted because it was being used for military purposes. He added that the strike sends a clear message to their enemies that there is no place beyond the reach of Israel’s long arm.

    The score is now 1 to 1, and it will likely end this way, just like the Israel-Iran conflict. However, political experts have other opinions. The increase in the number of missile attacks from the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Syrian Islamist militants proves they are intensifying their actions against Israel. They are aware that Western support for Israel is diminishing while support from the Muslim world for these groups is increasing, which is certainly advantageous for them. The Houthis vowed to “Plague” Israel with further attacks in response to the strikes on their port city, an approach that must be viewed within the context of the shifting global sentiment regarding the Israel-Gaza war.

    Israel is also unlikely to escalate the situation further because they know it isn’t as easy as dealing with Lebanon or Syria. The geographical distance, diminishing global support, and potential disruptions to global logistics will influence Israel’s decisions. The situation resembles Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia, despite having modern weapons, failed in their costly intervention in Yemen. The U.S. and U.K. also experienced setbacks with direct proxy wars there. Therefore, Israel is unlikely to engage in a full-scale war against the Houthis or Yemen right now. The drone and missile attacks will likely continue, as both sides seek to showcase their strength. However, since they are targeting populated cities, human losses are to be expected. Missiles are for killing people, not for finding solutions.

  • UN Court Orders Against Annexation of Palestinian Territories

    UN Court Orders Against Annexation of Palestinian Territories

    The hilly land known as Samaria to Israel and the West Bank to the rest of the world is a center of complex geopolitical tension. This land, reclaimed by Israel from Jordan during the 1967 war, is considered part of the territory designated for an independent Palestine, alongside Gaza. However, both Israel and Palestine remain unwilling to compromise on their stances, failing to reach an agreement on a widely accepted two-state solution. Consequently, Israel has unilaterally begun annexing the West Bank, often involving the forcible removal of the local population and the facilitation of Israeli migration, thereby undermining the prospects for a Palestinian state.

    Although Western countries permitted Israel to proceed and Arab nations showed little interest, the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) disagrees with Israel’s actions. The ICJ has now ordered Israel to end its occupation of the Palestinian territories as swiftly as possible and to provide full reparations for its internationally wrongful acts. Alongside the ICJ’s moves to charge against Netanyahu in light of war crimes in Gaza, it appears that the ICJ is taking a tougher stance against Israel, though Israel is likely to disregard its orders.

    Nawaf Salam, President of the ICJ, stated that the court views Israel’s violations of the prohibition on acquiring territory by force and of the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination as directly affecting the legality of Israel’s ongoing occupation of Palestinian territory. He emphasized that Israel’s persistent abuse of its position as an occupying power, through annexation, asserting permanent control over the territory, and continually obstructing the Palestinian right to self-determination, breaches fundamental principles of international law and makes Israel’s presence in the occupied territory unlawful.

    The court identified several breaches of international law by the government of Israel, including forcible evictions, widespread house demolitions, and restrictions on residence and movement. It also noted severe violations such as the transfer of Israeli settlers to the West Bank and East Jerusalem with excessive government support. Additionally, the court highlighted Israel’s failure to prevent or address settler attacks on Palestinians, restrictions on Palestinian access to water, and the exploitation of natural resources in the West Bank. Furthermore, the court observed the extension of Israeli state law to the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The Hague court also found that Israel was in breach of Article 3 of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination.

    Palestine welcomed the court’s order. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, ruling from the West Bank, described the decision as historic and a victory for justice, urging that Israel be compelled to implement it, fearing Israel might neglect the order. Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki called it a “watershed moment”. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a firm supporter of West Bank annexation, expressed discontent. In a statement, Netanyahu emphasized that the Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land and asserted their ancestral heritage in Judea and Samaria. He criticized the ICJ decision, stating, “No decision of lies in The Hague will distort this historical truth, and the legality of Israeli settlements in all parts of our homeland cannot be disputed”.

    Israel did not participate in the proceedings, which involved arguments from an unprecedented 52 states, but it submitted a written argument in July of the previous year, urging the ICJ to dismiss the request for an opinion. Israel also accused the court of prejudice and of failing to recognize Israel’s right and duty to protect its citizens, citing the October 7th attack as an additional point of contention.

    In addition to ordering an end to the occupation as soon as possible, the court, composed of 15 judges, stated that Israel must cease all unlawful acts, including halting new settlement activity and repealing legislation that maintains the occupation, particularly laws that discriminate against Palestinians or alter the demographic composition of any occupied territories. The court also mandated the evacuation of all settlers from existing settlements and the dismantling of sections of the wall constructed by Israel in the occupied Palestinian territory. Furthermore, the court called for the return of all Palestinians displaced during the occupation to their original places of residence.

    UN Secretary-General António Guterres will promptly transmit the advisory opinion to the 193-member General Assembly, and it is for the General Assembly to decide how to proceed in the matter. However, the matter is likely to remain unresolved as Israel is unlikely to agree with the ICJ order due to concerns that withdrawing from the West Bank will pose severe security threats to Israel, similar to those from Gaza. Although Israel withdrew its military and settlements from Gaza in 2005, the terrorist organization Hamas strengthened its position there, leading to attacks on Israel.

    Now, Israel is taking back control of Gaza and may act rapidly in the West Bank as well. Right-wing parties are pushing for more settlements, and Israeli politicians with real estate interests have their eyes on the West Bank, further diminishing the prospects for a Palestinian state. As a result, the ICJ decision is unlikely to be accepted by Israel, and they will not work in the direction of the order. However, this decision will mark an important chapter in the history of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

  • What is Jordan’s role in the latest Arab-Israeli conflict?

    What is Jordan’s role in the latest Arab-Israeli conflict?

    As civilians in Gaza receive warnings and reports emerge of Israel preparing for more offensives, the reactions from Arab countries that have historically fought with Israel, such as Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt, are interesting to watch. Jordan, the country with the longest border with Israel, and Egypt, now in a treaty with Israel, have no interest in further conflict and have become good neighbors, like Saudi Arabia. Lebanon and Syria are expected to be drawn into war soon due to the increased presence of Islamic terrorist organizations sympathetic to Gaza and their domestic collapses. Since the October 7 Hamas attack in Israel and the subsequent Israeli invasion of Gaza, few regional states have faced challenges as acute as Jordan, with its substantial Palestinian-origin population and prominent roles within the Arab and Muslim world. Once fiercely fighting Israel for Muslim solidarity, Jordan now appears to have understood its limitations in war, despite ongoing protests amid tight government control. As regional war tensions escalate with the potential involvement of Lebanon and Syria, can Jordan remain a friend of Israel or stay neutral?

    As casualties have mounted in Gaza, outrage in Jordan, as elsewhere in the Muslim populated countries, has grown. Regular Friday protests, after the prayer,  led by the kingdom’s Islamists, have brought participants close to the rare act of publicly criticizing King Abdullah, who has ruled Jordan since 1999. Though Jordan is relatively liberal compared to many other states in the region, reports noted that the “Regime’s red lines” on what can be published without repercussions have tightened “Dramatically” since the war began. In the first month of the conflict, at least 1,000 protesters were detained in the capital city, Amman, particularly at demonstrations near the Israeli embassy, which some tried to storm. People are angry not only at Israel’s actions in Gaza and Jordan’s inaction but also at the perception that Jordan is aiding Israel and the United States for economic gains, betraying Islam and Palestine. Jordan, with US assistance, shot down many of the more than 300 Iranian missiles and drones launched at targets in Israel as they flew over the kingdom. Officials stated that Jordan was defending its sovereignty and keeping its population of 12 million safe, but it is evident this was in the interest of the United States. Though lauded by Western powers, the kingdom’s actions have led to accusations at home that it was protecting Israel.

    The King and the Jordanian government are amidst numerous pressures from different directions. The kingdom now navigates a “Tricky balancing act” as King Abdullah II and his advisers skillfully juggle the demands of citizens calling for tough action and punishment in the Gaza war, alongside the kingdom’s close ties to Washington and a 30-year-old peace treaty with Israel. King Abdullah has made statements and repeatedly called for international action to halt the conflict in Gaza, accusing Israel of war crimes, while Queen Rania has criticized the West’s “Complicity”. The kingdom’s diplomats have proposed multiple plans for governing Gaza, and its military has opened field hospitals in the territory and airdropped aid. In Amman’s corridors of power, debates are ongoing over whether the relationship with the US, which has thousands of troops in Jordan and provides $1.5 billion in economic aid annually, should be downgraded or reinforced. However, it is clear that Jordan is not capable of exerting enough pressure on the US to influence Israel, given its economic reliance on these countries. Interestingly, unlike in previous times, the absence of a unifying leader in the Arab world means Jordan must navigate these challenges alone. Therefore, it remains to be seen if the government is merely making statements to appease the dissatisfied populace.

    Jordan consistently followed an anti-Zionist policy between 1948 and 1994 and both countries clashed on several occasions before 1994. In 1994, Jordan and Israel signed a peace treaty that normalized relations and resolved territorial disputes, including water sharing. The treaty resolved land and water issues and encouraged extensive cooperation in tourism and trade. Following the agreement, Israel and Jordan opened their borders, establishing several crossings that facilitated travel for tourists, businessmen, and workers between the two countries.

    However, there have been several disputes between the two governments even after the treaty, and the public has not fully trusted each other. Now, Jordan faces a dilemma: If the war escalates to a regional level or if Israel’s actions in Gaza intensify, it is certain that the people will not obey the government, or the government will be forced to act. However, they know well that they are not capable of fighting without Arab unity as before, which makes them realize they cannot engage in conflict. A fight would have devastating effects on the country, which lacks the resources like other Arab nations. Definitely, tough times lie ahead for Jordan.

  • What Led to Armenia’s Recognition of Palestine?

    What Led to Armenia’s Recognition of Palestine?

    Armenia and Israel, countries founded on religious identities, have had a historically strong relationship. Predominantly Christian Armenians and predominantly Jewish modern Israelis have maintained diplomatic relations, and their histories date back centuries. Both nations have experienced persecution under various kingdoms and share many similarities, including suffering from genocides that shocked the world with their cruelty. Many Jews lived in Armenia, and Israel still hosts Armenian Christians and a Jewish diaspora. There is even a quarter dedicated to Armenians in the holy city and disputed capital, Jerusalem.

    However, their relationship has not been entirely smooth. There has been reported discontent between the populations regarding each other’s history. Israel’s reluctance to recognize the Armenian genocide and its recent arming of Azerbaijani troops against Armenia have caused friction. Conversely, Israel perceives Armenia as aligning with Palestine and joining Muslims in the effort to establish a free Palestine. The latest development, with modern Armenia recognizing the State of Palestine after 30 years of its formation, is worsening the relationship with Israel.

    On July 23, Armenia became the ninth country since April to recognize Palestine as a direct response to the Gaza war. This was a unilateral decision, unlike many other countries. The Armenian Foreign Ministry highlighted that the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and the ongoing military conflict are key issues on the international political agenda that demand resolution. However, many believe this situation is different.

    Despite ties between Armenia and Israel existing since Armenia’s independence from the Soviet Union, their relationship has not been smooth, with many diplomatic issues between the two countries. Tensions worsened significantly following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia feels betrayed after losing long-held Armenian heritage cities in Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, which received support from Armenia’s long-time rival, Turkey. To exacerbate the situation, Armenia believes that Russia and Israel, the only nearby non-Muslim countries, did not provide sufficient support. Since Russia cannot be targeted, Armenia’s fury is directed towards Israel. In a post-interview, Armenia’s ambassador to Israel, Arman Akopian, stated that Azerbaijan has been utilizing Israeli weapons to bolster its control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

    From Israel’s side, they consider Armenia’s relationship with Iran a threat. Political ties between Armenia and Iran are growing increasingly robust, extending beyond typical neighborly relations. Recently, Iranian media reported that Armenia plans to construct a new highway connecting to Iran. Additionally, Armenia has signed an arms deal with India, stipulating that the arms will be transported to Armenia through Iran. In 2023, reports emerged indicating the presence of Iranian soldiers stationed along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan. Such activities make Armenia a questionable ally for Israel.

    Israel believes Armenia’s decision to recognize Palestine as a state reflects underlying antisemitic sentiments within certain segments of Armenian society. There are reports of many Armenians in Israel believing they are considered third-class citizens and that Armenians prefer Muslims over Jews. This recent recognition can also be seen as a deepening relationship between Armenia and Shia countries in solidarity with the Palestinian population. Many anti-Israel social media groups celebrated Armenia’s decision, pointing out that Christians in Palestine are also suffering, emphasizing that it is not solely a Muslim-Jewish issue.

    “The Republic of Armenia has joined the resolutions of the UN General Assembly calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza”, the Armenian Foreign Ministry stated following the recognition of Palestinian statehood. This move is likely to impact Armenia’s aspirations to join the EU and align with the United States, signaling a shift towards closer relations with Iran and Russia.

  • Singapore to recognize Palestine, but differently from its neighbors

    Singapore to recognize Palestine, but differently from its neighbors

    Singapore, Asia’s business hub, has a great relationship with Israel, unlike their Islamic neighbors Malaysia and Indonesia. Singapore doesn’t recognize Palestine even though they have a Muslim population and are a parliamentary democracy. When we examine Asia’s politics, it is interesting to note the dynamics. In Asia, Muslim countries from Saudi Arabia to Indonesia follow the policy of supporting Palestine and not recognizing Israel. Democratic countries like India recognize both Israel and Palestine. Only hardline U.S. allied countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Myanmar, a closed country, do not recognize Palestine. But In an interesting turn of events, Singapore is now getting ready to recognize Palestine finally.

    According to Vivian Balakrishnan, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, speaking in parliament on Tuesday, Singapore is prepared to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state if it establishes an effective government that denounces terrorism and accepts Israel’s right to exist, specifically in reference to the Palestinian Authority governing from the West Bank. It is noteworthy that Singapore will recognize Palestine only if such a government is formed. Many believe it is a tricky move by Singapore, and that Singapore will delay the recognition because there is no recognizable government now, and they are only seeking further cooperation with the Palestinian Authority. But Some believe Singapore will join Spain, Sweden, and other Western allied countries in recognizing the Palestinian Authority government from the West Bank to denounce Israel’s actions in Gaza. It’s sure, Singapore will maintain its friendship with Israel and their recognition of Israel. The two-state solution, or recognition of both states, has been a strategy followed by different countries to demonstrate their diplomatic standing. However, the issue of Palestine has been in the spotlight in Singaporean politics due to the large Malay Muslim population and the influence of neighboring Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Vivian Balakrishnan was addressing five questions raised by Members of Parliament about Palestine and Singapore’s aid in reconstruction. Dr. Balakrishnan noted that in May this year, Singapore voted in favor of the resolution expressing support for Palestine’s membership in the United Nations after “Very careful consideration”. “This reflected our hope to encourage both Israel and Palestine to resume direct negotiations towards a two-state solution, at a time when the prospects for such negotiations were increasingly bleak”, he said. The decision was also in line with Singapore’s consistent support for the principles of international law, he added. “Our vote at the United Nations General Assembly means that Singapore is prepared in principle to recognize the State of Palestine”, said Dr. Balakrishnan. “We will make this move at an appropriate time”. “Our key consideration is that such a move on our part should help progress toward peace and a negotiated two-state solution”.

    Singapore has almost a 15% Muslim population, which is a significant number in a parliamentary democracy. Although fundamentalism and extremism are comparatively low compared to neighboring countries where people support Hamas, Singapore has not been much involved. However, the recent change in mood is notable, with the voting in the UN and statements from leaders, including the recent speech by Vivian Balakrishnan in parliament, bolstering this shift. Despite this, Singapore’s heavy dependence on the Western financial system and its strong relationship with Israel means it is unlikely to jeopardize these relationships. Throughout his speech, Vivian emphasized the two-state solution, which is supported by many countries like India, China, and Spain, and highlighted that Singapore does not support Hamas, designating it as a terrorist organization, and will only deal with the PLO. It’s sure, the recognition  will disturb Israel, but it is the best course of action for Singapore at the moment.

  • How Imminent is the Israel-Lebanon War?

    How Imminent is the Israel-Lebanon War?

    There was a time when all Arab Islamic neighbors were a threat to Israel. There was a time when all Arab Islamic neighbors surrounding Israel decided to vanish the Jewish country from the Earth. There was a time when all the neighbors were the hope for an Islamic country in a land now called Israel. But now, it all seems like sleeping in history books. Arab Islamic nations, once advocated for Islamic solidarity and the liberation of Palestine from the river to the sea, now merely issue statements in support of Palestinians who face retaliation from Israel for terrorist attacks by Hamas, the rulers of Gaza. Egypt, once a major Arab power, is no longer prominently involved. Jordan and Syria are not capable without Egypt. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran, though they all claim to be the leader of Islamic nations, have not challenged Israel like Egypt once did, and possibly never in future. So Israel’s borders with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan are all safe now. But the border with Lebanon, which is home to a large Palestinian population and the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which has close ties with Hamas, poses a heavy risk for Israel. It’s certain that while Israel works on security issues with Hamas, they will also deal with threats from Hezbollah, possibly leading to cross-border attacks into Lebanon, and another Israel-Lebanon war soon.

    The Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, affirmed a possible escalation of war with Lebanon, stating that a decision on an all-out war with Hezbollah was imminent. Israeli generals announced late on Tuesday that they had finalized plans for an offensive into Lebanon. These statements are considered as part of Israel’s efforts to ensure public support for the war before the attack in Lebanon, where Hezbollah is perceived, a threat to people in Israel. The escalating rhetoric followed the release of video footage from a Hezbollah surveillance drone’s overflight of the northern city of Haifa, which included images of sensitive sites and civilian neighborhoods. The broadcast of the footage was widely interpreted as a thinly veiled threat against Haifa and comes amid ongoing cross-border exchanges between the two sides. Northern Israel faced the most intense barrage of the conflict from Hezbollah last week following the Israeli operation that resulted in the death of a senior Hezbollah commander. Following threats by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to target Haifa’s ports, Katz stated in a post on X: “We are approaching the moment of deciding to change the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon”. He stated that, In a full-scale war, Hezbollah will face destruction, and Hezbollah’s host Lebanon will endure serious consequences.

    Israel’s military later announced, “Operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon have been approved and validated, with decisions made to further increase troop readiness in the field”. Minister Katz’s comments came as the IDF announced on Tuesday that it had approved battle plans for Lebanon. During an assessment, IDF generals approved “Operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon”, including “Accelerating the readiness of forces on the ground”. Israel is considering the Hezbollah drone footage as a warning that they are capable of an attack similar to what Hamas carried out last year. The warnings came hours after Hezbollah released nine minutes of drone footage gathered from its surveillance overflight of locations in Israel, including residential areas. The distribution of the footage was highlighted by the Lebanese armed movement, including on its Telegram channel, urging viewers on several platforms to “Watch and Analyze” what it described as “Important Scenes.”

    Even though a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon has not occurred since the 2006 war, tension between Israel and Hezbollah has always been present despite their agreements on ceasefire. Since the Hamas attack on Gaza, there have been ongoing skirmishes between them. Over the past eight months, Hezbollah has deployed surveillance and attack drones into Israel, engaging in fire exchanges with the Israeli military concurrently with the Gaza conflict. The decision to broadcast footage, which included images of residential and military sites in and around Haifa, including port facilities, seemed aimed as much at an Israeli audience as at a wider international one. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah stated in November that they had been sending surveillance drones over Haifa. Curiously, the release of this footage seemed to coincide with the visit of US envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon, which followed his meetings with senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the day before. The US called for “urgent” de-escalation of the cross-border exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli forces that have been ongoing since the start of the Gaza conflict. However, tensions escalate without showing down. Last week, Hezbollah launched hundreds of drones and rockets, with more than 200 fired on a single day, prompting Israeli military strikes on Hezbollah targets in response.

    The latest exchange of threats between the two sides came as the US and France worked on a negotiated settlement to the hostilities along Lebanon’s southern boundary with Israel. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has endured for an extended period. It’s best to resolve it quickly and diplomatically, that is both achievable and urgent. However, Israel’s mission for safety will not be completed if they only tame Hezbollah. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Shiite militias in Syria can all be seen as a threat to Israel. But The level of support from Western countries for an escalation of war will be crucial. Netanyahu has dissolved the war cabinet to gain more control in the conflict, enjoying support in opinion polls. Upcoming conflict may also serve to deflect attention from previous corruption charges and public discontent during Netanyahu’s rule extension. Therefore, a possible conflict with Hezbollah is imminent and it seems likely and could lead to an Israel-Lebanon war, causing further destruction in Lebanon.