Tag: Japan

  • Can East Asia Set Aside Old Rivalries to Forge a New Economic Order?

    Can East Asia Set Aside Old Rivalries to Forge a New Economic Order?

    While East Asia remains divided into two camps—one aligned with the U.S. and the other with China—recent developments have sparked speculation about a striking possibility: that the region’s economic giants—China, Japan, and South Korea—could set aside their long-standing rivalries to forge a new economic order. Such an alliance could emerge as a formidable force in Asia, challenging the U.S.-led global system and reshaping the balance of power.

    This idea gained traction after reports from China, initially shared by a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media and later picked up by major outlets like DW, captured widespread interest. As the world focuses on Trump’s escalating tariff threats, East Asian nations—long dependent on trade with the U.S. and deeply embedded in global production and innovation networks—find themselves particularly exposed.

    Despite historical tensions and political differences, Trump’s tariff war is increasingly seen as a common economic challenge. His policies, which make no distinction between allies and adversaries, aim to restore manufacturing to the U.S. or at least rebalance trade—a strategy that threatens to further slow growth in these East Asian economies.

    Amid this uncertainty, diplomatic engagements among these nations have taken on greater significance. Meetings that might have once drawn routine attention are now closely scrutinized, with Chinese reports of closer cooperation between these states gaining widespread recognition.

    The meeting in Seoul

    While the world was waiting for Trump’s Liberation Day announcements on new tariff rates, a pivotal meeting took place in Seoul. China, Japan, and South Korea came together to strengthen trade cooperation, bringing together South Korean Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun, Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Yoji Muto, and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

    In a joint statement released after the meeting, the three trade ministers committed to advancing comprehensive and high-level negotiations on a South Korea-Japan-China free trade agreement, aiming to bolster both regional and global trade, as reported by DW.

    South Korean Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun emphasized the need to reinforce the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in which all three nations participate. He also highlighted the importance of creating a framework to expand trade cooperation through Korea-China-Japan FTA negotiations.

    The countries further pledged to foster a stable and predictable trade and investment environment. Ahn pointed to the increasing fragmentation of the global economic landscape, stressing the necessity of collective efforts to tackle shared challenges.

    As part of their ongoing collaboration, the ministers agreed to hold their next meeting in Japan.

    Trump’s tariffs

    As Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Wednesday, East Asia is set to bear the brunt of the economic repercussions. A base tariff of 10% has been introduced, and in a bid to rebalance trade, China, Japan, and South Korea will face even steeper taxes, with no exceptions made for U.S. allies.

    Chinese imports will now be subject to a total tariff of 54%, combining a newly imposed 34% tariff with the existing 20%. Key U.S. partners have not been spared—South Korea will be hit with a 26% tariff, while Japan will face a 24% rate. The base tariffs will take effect on April 5, with the higher reciprocal rates coming into force on April 9.

    Adding to the economic strain, new tariffs on automobiles and auto parts have been introduced, delivering a heavy blow to the manufacturing sectors of China, Japan, and South Korea. As home to some of the world’s largest automakers, these nations rely heavily on their automotive industries, making the new trade barriers a serious threat to their economic stability.

    Obstacles outweigh potential?

    While the economic benefits of closer cooperation are real, the challenges outweigh the advantages. Generational animosity between these nations remains strong, and domestic politics in each country often thrives on such rivalries. Closer collaboration could destabilize the already fragile political landscapes of Japan and South Korea, both of which face significant internal challenges. Additionally, the ideological divide between China’s communist government and Japan and South Korea’s democracies raises further concerns about compatibility.

    Another major obstacle is the deep-rooted geopolitical ties—Japan and South Korea’s strong alliances with the U.S. contrast sharply with North Korea’s alignment with China. Both Tokyo and Seoul receive substantial economic and security support from Washington, and any shift toward deeper cooperation with China could put them in a difficult position. Trump, known for his retaliatory economic policies, could respond unfavorably to such a move.

    Amid these complexities, a report from a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media on Monday claimed that China, Japan, and South Korea had agreed on a joint response to U.S. tariffs. However, Seoul dismissed the claim as exaggerated, and Tokyo outright denied that such discussions took place. A spokesperson for South Korea’s trade ministry stated that the assertion was overstated and pointed to the official text of the countries’ joint statement.

    At a press conference on Tuesday, Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto acknowledged that the trade ministers had met over the weekend but clarified that no such discussions had occurred. He described the meeting as a general exchange of views rather than a coordinated economic response. Yes, the fear is real.

    What if major economies join forces?

    According to the IMF, China is the world’s second-largest economy at $20 trillion, followed by Japan at $4 trillion and South Korea at $2 trillion. Together, they form a $26 trillion economy—larger than the European Union’s nominal GDP and nearing the $30 trillion U.S. economy. However, uniting these economic powerhouses remains a daunting challenge, despite their strong trade ties.

    Japan and South Korea depend on China for semiconductor raw materials, while China imports advanced chip products from both nations. Acknowledging this interdependence, all three countries have pledged to strengthen supply chain cooperation and expand discussions on export controls.

    At the Seoul meeting, trade ministers from China, Japan, and South Korea committed to expediting negotiations for a trilateral free trade agreement aimed at strengthening regional and global trade. A spokesperson for South Korea’s trade ministry stated that all three nations acknowledged evolving global trade dynamics and reaffirmed their dedication to ongoing economic cooperation.

    Some analysts speculate about the potential formation of an Asian economic bloc that includes ASEAN and India, creating a formidable economic force. However, deep-seated rivalries, competing strategic interests, and the ambitions of some leaders to establish an “Asian NATO” pose significant challenges, making full economic integration uncertain.

  • Stormy Waters or Smooth Sailing? Japan’s Fate Under Trump 2.0

    Stormy Waters or Smooth Sailing? Japan’s Fate Under Trump 2.0

    In his second term, Trump continues to clash with allies, undermining longstanding partnerships, all while the global political landscape grows ever more volatile. Against this backdrop, Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, visited Washington last week, seeking to reaffirm the U.S.-Japan alliance. Their first meeting struck a notably cordial tone, with Japan—at least for the time being—avoiding the tariffs Trump has imposed on other allies. But as Trump pushes for greater reciprocity, Tokyo may soon find itself facing the harsher, more transactional aspects of his foreign policy.

    The meeting was marked by a cordial exchange of praise between the two leaders at the White House, where they pledged solidarity in the face of Chinese “aggression” and unveiled a resolution to a stalled deal involving the troubled U.S. Steel. However, Trump also pressed Ishiba to address the U.S. trade deficit with Japan, warning that Tokyo could still face tariffs on its exports if it did not meet that demand. Despite Japan’s role as a steadfast U.S. ally and a key player in managing the escalating tensions between China and the U.S. in the region, the central theme of their discussions remained Trump’s “America First” policy.

    During Trump’s first term, the U.S.-Japan relationship flourished, strengthened by the close rapport between Trump and Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Ishiba, a self-proclaimed “geek” and warship enthusiast, has been under pressure to emulate the strong ties that Trump shared with Abe. Both leaders claimed to have formed a connection during what was only the second visit by a foreign leader in Trump’s second term. Ishiba, a proponent of an Asian NATO and increased U.S. involvement in the region, now finds himself contending with a president who has consistently criticized NATO spending and threatened to cut security support to allied nations.

    Trump also made a significant announcement that Japan’s Nippon Steel would make a major investment in U.S. Steel, though it would not proceed with the original plan to take over the struggling company. Instead of a full acquisition, the focus would be on a strategic investment. This shift came after his predecessor, Joe Biden, had blocked the deal, underscoring Trump’s distinct approach to international business. While this move raised questions about the stability of the U.S.-Japan relationship, it also signaled Japan’s growing investments in the U.S., especially in light of its own demographic challenges. Many speculate that Trump’s show of support is linked to Japan’s commitment to a $1 trillion investment in the U.S. and its promise to increase purchases of U.S. defense equipment. Ishiba emphasized that Japan is already the largest foreign investor in the U.S. and would continue to ramp up its spending.

    Trump and Ishiba agreed to address what they termed “Chinese Economic Aggression,” and in a joint statement, they condemned Beijing for its “provocative activities” in the contested South China Sea. They also reiterated their call for a denuclearized North Korea, though Trump—who had previously met with Kim Jong-un during his first term—expressed a desire to maintain “relations” with Pyongyang.

    Thus far, Trump has imposed tariffs on China, briefly extended them to Mexico and Canada before pausing the measures for a month, and vowed to impose tariffs on the European Union. He has also hinted at announcing unspecified “Reciprocal Tariffs” in the coming week. Should the EU face pressure, Japan may no longer enjoy the same guarantees of protection it once did. While Trump’s personal friendship with Abe had been a factor in their prior rapport, it may not carry the same weight in his second term, where he appears more resolute. In the end, only Trump can predict whether the waters ahead will be stormy or smooth for Japan in the years to come.

  • Japan Enters a Phase of Political Uncertainty

    Japan Enters a Phase of Political Uncertainty

    While Japan struggles economically and demographically, its politicians steer the country into another round of instability. Last month, a new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, took office but quickly decided to hold an election to solidify his position and introduce a fresh government distinct from that of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, who stepped down amid low approval ratings and scandals. However, Ishiba’s strategy backfired as voters dealt a significant blow to both his party and its coalition partner, resulting in their lowest combined seat count since 2009. Intriguingly, for the first time since 1955, no single party surpassed the 200-seat mark in the 465-member parliament. Now, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) must secure new allies from opposition groups as they prepare to face a formidable opposition bloc in parliament, complicating the path forward for the conservative yet nominally liberal Liberal Democratic Party.

    On October 27, Japan held its 50th general election for the House of Representatives following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to dissolve the lower house. Voters cast their ballots for 465 assembly seats, including both single-member constituencies and proportional representation seats. In the previous assembly, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) maintained a clear majority with 259 out of 465 seats. However, Ishiba’s gamble on early elections ended in disappointment. The LDP, recognized as Japan’s ‘grand old party’ and a proponent of nationalism and conservatism, suffered a major setback, losing 68 seats and falling to 191—45 seats short of a majority.

    The LDP’s ally and the fourth-largest party, the Buddhist-nationalist Komeito, also saw its seat count drop from 32 to 24. Meanwhile, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), led by Yoshihiko Noda, rose significantly from 96 to 149 seats. This substantial gain reflects the prevailing anti-LDP sentiment and other factors, yet the CDP could not surpass the LDP’s total seat count. The right-wing populist and economically liberal Nippon Ishin no Kai secured 38 seats, becoming the third-largest party. Another notable outcome emerged as the conservative Democratic Party for the People (DPP) climbed to fourth place by winning 28 seats, an increase of 17 from the previous election, displacing Komeito.

    The LDP and Komeito alliance needs 18 seats to form the government. Eleven political parties won seats in the parliament, along with 12 independent candidates. Even if all the independents supported the government, the LDP coalition would still fall short by 6 seats. Therefore, they need the support of political parties. Analysts expect that the LDP will talk with other conservative parties in the parliament to form a multi-party government aligned with common minimum programs. Both the DPP and Ishin have ruled out joining an LDP-Komeito government for now because they understand the public’s discontent with the current administration. However, many believe they will eventually agree to a coalition. The chances for the CDP, the main opposition party, to form a government are slim, as they cannot create a coalition with other parties that hold very different views, many of which are conservative. The number of communist and liberal parties is also very low. 

    Major newspapers in Japan, including Sankei Shimbun, Yomiuri Shimbun, and Asahi Shimbun, all ran editorials in their morning editions calling for Ishiba to step down as prime minister, emphasizing the need to understand the people’s mandate. Nevertheless, he insists that he will continue. So it is clear that Shigeru Ishiba and the LDP will form a government with compromises.

    Many political and economic analysts believe that the downfall of Japan results from its politics as well. Each term filled itself with incidents. Besides Shinzo Abe, Japan has not had any strong government or leadership recently. After Abe, the country witnessed more turmoil in Japanese politics, and now Ishiba’s gamble creates even more chances for political upheaval. However, he is experienced, and optimists expect that increasing tensions with North Korea and China will lead to cooperation among politicians.

    The upcoming Ishiba government will face numerous internal problems too, from the need for corruption-free governance to deep demographic challenges, presenting a host of issues for the administration. It will be interesting to see how he leads the country through these issues with the coalition government.

  • Japan confirmed Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister

    Japan confirmed Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister

    Japan’s parliament on Tuesday elected Shigeru Ishiba, the newly appointed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as the country’s next prime minister. His appointment will be formalized in traditional ceremonies at the Imperial Palace, where the emperor will officially confirm Ishiba and his newly assembled cabinet. In reorganizing the cabinet inherited from Fumio Kishida, Ishiba introduced significant changes, forming a 19-member team with only two women. Yoko Kamikawa, the outgoing foreign minister and one of five women in the previous administration, was replaced by former defense minister Takeshi Iwaya. Katsunobu Kato, who played a key role as health minister during the COVID-19 pandemic, was appointed finance minister, while Gen Nakatani took on the defense portfolio.

    As anticipated, Ishiba also announced a snap election for October 27, just a month after assuming office and a full year ahead of the scheduled date, seeking a fresh mandate for his government.

    Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has selected Shigeru Ishiba to succeed Fumio Kishida as prime minister, following an internal vote on September 27. Ishiba, a 67-year-old veteran moderate and former defense minister, secured the position by defeating his right-wing rival, Sanae Takaichi, with a vote of 215 to 194. Takaichi had aimed to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

    Ishiba’s victory is seen as an opportunity to harness his broad appeal among voters to rejuvenate the party after months of scandal and internal discord. As Japan’s new prime minister, he will face a host of challenges across multiple fronts. To succeed, Ishiba and his team must distance themselves from the controversies of the Kishida administration and present the public with a fresh agenda and new promises.

    The leadership contest was set in motion after outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he would not seek re-election as LDP president, following a series of damaging fundraising scandals and a sharp decline in approval ratings. Citing the need for fresh leadership after a challenging period for the party, Kishida emphasized that his successor would need to lead a renewed LDP.

    Ishiba expressed his confidence in restoring trust in the party and outlined his commitment to protecting Japan, its local communities, its laws, and its people once the election was concluded.

    Now, tasked with revitalizing the party, Ishiba faces the challenge of addressing public frustration over rising living costs, a faltering economy, and the pressing issue of a shrinking and aging population. At the same time, he must navigate a volatile regional security environment, marked by an increasingly assertive China and the looming threat of a potentially nuclear-armed North Korea.

    As a defense expert with a personal interest in building models of warplanes and ships, Ishiba has proposed the creation of an Asian version of NATO and is a strong advocate for Taiwan. He is widely regarded as a fitting leader for the region’s military buildup under the United States’ strategic framework. Additionally, Ishiba has called for the establishment of a disaster-management agency, recognizing the need for more robust preparedness in a country frequently hit by powerful earthquakes and typhoons.

    Ishiba is known for his distinct views, often diverging from those of prominent party figures. Unlike most of his peers, he is the only one among the nine LDP presidential candidates to advocate for a post-Fukushima shift from nuclear power to renewable energy. He also backs legislation that would allow women to ascend to the Chrysanthemum Throne, a stance that many within the LDP oppose. Additionally, Ishiba has criticized the party’s resistance to public demands for reforms, such as permitting married couples to use separate surnames. Economically, he seeks to raise wages and supports exempting certain essentials from the 10% consumption tax to alleviate the burden on lower-income households.

    Shigeru Ishiba’s ambition to lead Japan has long been clear, and now, after securing the prime ministership, the veteran MP is finally set to achieve that goal on his fifth attempt. A former defense minister who entered parliament in 1986 following a brief career in banking, Ishiba was previously overshadowed by Fumio Kishida. Yet, he has remained a steady figure in Japanese politics, regularly appearing in the media and engaging with the public through social media and his YouTube channel, where the married father of two daughters discusses a wide array of topics—from Japan’s declining birthrate to his fondness for ramen—with over 16,000 followers.

    Known for his calm demeanor coupled with strong leadership, Ishiba commands considerable support as he prepares to lead the nation. That confidence extends to the upcoming snap election, where he believes he can secure the public mandate to continue his leadership.

  • China and Japan delegate efforts to ease tensions

    China and Japan delegate efforts to ease tensions

    China and Japan, two powerhouses in Asia, share a long history of conflicts and conquests, a dynamic that continues into the modern era. Currently, their relationship is considered to be in one of its worst phases. As the world’s second and third largest economies, both countries are positioning themselves for potential conflict, seeking triggers that could escalate tensions. Their actions significantly influence the political landscape of the Asia-Pacific region and could potentially lead to a global conflict, with the United States likely to support Japan and Russia aligning with China. Numerous other countries could also join either side.

    Both China and Japan have their own reasons for accusing each other. The Chinese government claims that relations with Japan have been strained by Japan’s failure to fully acknowledge its wartime crimes to China’s satisfaction. On the other hand, the Japanese government attributes the tension to the expansion and assertive actions of the People’s Liberation Army, as well as China’s revisionist statements. The two countries also face serious territorial disputes and frequently provoke each other, as evidenced by a recent incident where China allegedly attempted to breach Japanese airspace.

    Despite the tense situation over the South China Sea, efforts are being made at diplomatic level. Recently, veteran Chinese diplomat Liu Jianchao urged visiting Japanese lawmakers to adopt a long-term perspective on bilateral relations and manage their differences constructively. During a meeting with a cross-party delegation from the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians Union – a platform that fosters dialogue and collaboration between lawmakers from both countries – Liu highlighted that relations were at a critical juncture. He expressed hope that both sides would approach Sino-Japanese relations with a broader and long-term view, enhance strategic communication, collaborate across various fields, and handle their differences constructively. Liu also called for increased dialogue and exchange visits from all Japanese political factions to China to strengthen strategic communication and mutual understanding.

    Nikai, a prominent figure in the Japanese parliament, stated that the visit aimed to improve communication between the two countries. He emphasized the goal of fostering deeper dialogue with China, strengthening communication between relevant departments of both nations, and creating favorable conditions for resolving differences and enhancing cooperation in politics, economics, culture, and tourism.

    Liu, head of the International Department for China’s ruling Communist Party, is leading the discussions with a group from Japan headed by Toshihiro Nikai, a prominent member of the House of Representatives and a key figure in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The group is on a three-day visit and met Zhao Leji, the head of China’s top legislative body, on Wednesday morning. During the meeting, Nikai expressed regret over the recent intrusion of Chinese military aircraft into Japanese airspace, as reported by Jiji Press. Key topics of discussion are expected to include China’s ban on Japanese seafood imports, the reinstatement of pre-pandemic visa-free entry for short-term visits by Japanese nationals, and the detention of Japanese nationals in China on espionage charges. Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s chief government spokesman, expressed hope that this visit—the first by the union in five years – would further strengthen multifaceted exchanges and communication between Beijing and Tokyo. 

    In May, Liu led a delegation to Japan and consented to reinitiate regular discussions between the ruling parties, marking the first such meetings in six years. In July, Hiroshi Moriyama, chairman of the LDP’s decision-making general council, visited China and met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who called for enhanced communication and cooperation. Additionally, Chinese Foreign Vice Minister Ma Zhaoxu resumed the China-Japan strategic dialogue with his Japanese counterpart in Tokyo after a four-year hiatus and held a candid and in-depth discussion with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa. Despite these efforts, the situation does not seem to have significantly improved, and the results are still pending.

  • Who Will Become Japan’s Next Prime Minister?

    Who Will Become Japan’s Next Prime Minister?

    As Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida decided to step down in September following his poor approval ratings, it has become certain that Japan will have a new prime minister next month. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a conservative party despite its name, is facing challenges in finding a successor. Their previous attempts, including Kishida, to continue the legacy of Shinzo Abe, who served as LDP’s prime minister from 2012 to 2020, have failed. The election to choose Kishida’s successor will take place during an LDP meeting in September.

    Kishida’s decision to step down has triggered one of the most unpredictable leadership races for the LDP in recent history. The selection process has turned what was once a competitive race with a vulnerable incumbent into an open contest with numerous credible contenders but no clear frontrunner. Among the potential successors are party insiders, unconventional ministers, and, in a rare move for Japan, two MPs under the age of 50. The presence of two women in the race also raises the possibility – however slim – of the country’s first female prime minister. This uncertainty is fitting, as it comes at a time of significant instability for the LDP, a broad coalition of conservatives that has governed modern Japan for most of the time since its establishment in the mid-1950s.

    Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister in his 60s who has declared his intention to run, could play a key role in the party’s future. Although he has failed in four previous attempts to become party leader, Ishiba consistently polls well among voters and should easily secure the 20 endorsements from lawmakers required to enter the race. The final decision will be made by the party’s 1.1 million members. Ishiba may face competition from digital minister Taro Kono, a moderate, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. The candidacy of two women is also notable. Yoko Kamikawa is one of the two women who might become prime minister if she receives support from Fumio Kishida. Meanwhile, Sanae Takaichi, the economic security minister and a right-wing favorite, recently underscored her conservative credentials with a visit to Yasukuni Shrine, a site linked to Japan’s militarist past. The party’s secretary-general, Toshimitsu Motegi, is likely ruled out due to his connection with factional maneuvering that has alienated voters.

    Kishida could still influence the race, especially if he supports another potential candidate, Yoko Kamikawa, whom he appointed last year as Japan’s first female foreign minister in nearly two decades. Although Kishida is not popular with the public, he remains influential within the party. If he backs Kamikawa and secures support from others in the LDP, she could become a strong candidate.

    The unexpected decision provides the LDP with some breathing room. With a month to choose a new leader and a year before the general election scheduled for October 2025, the new leader’s top priority will be to restore public trust before the next general election. The LDP’s next leader must be able to unite the party and effectively manage the government, with experience being more valuable than mere popularity in polls. Kishida’s successor will also need to address pressing issues such as the rising cost of living, escalating tensions with China and North Korea, and the potential return of Donald Trump as U.S. president. If the LDP selects a leader without addressing public concerns over political funding scandals, the party could face a significant defeat in the upcoming election. It would be advantageous for the LDP to choose a young leader with no ties to the current administration who can offer a fresh vision for the party.

    Given that the parliament is controlled by the LDP, the new leader will not face immediate challenges from within. However, if the party performs poorly, it risks losing its administration after nearly 13 years and potentially seeing the return of the opposition. As regional tensions with the U.S. and China escalate, strong governance is essential for Japan to safeguard its interests.

  • Japan to Get New Prime Minister as Fumio Kishida Steps Down

    Japan to Get New Prime Minister as Fumio Kishida Steps Down

    Japan is poised for another prime ministerial change as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who took office two years ago, has decided to step down in September. With Japan’s next general election scheduled for October 31, 2025, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is making every effort to restore its image with the public, considering a prime ministerial change as part of this move. The current government and prime minister have a poor reputation among the public, according to polls.

    Kishida, 67, made a surprise announcement on Wednesday that he would step down as LDP leader in September and would not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) next month. His decision concludes a three-year tenure defined by scandal, escalating living costs, and unprecedented defense spending. Media reports suggest that Kishida faced pressure from within the LDP, with some members doubting his ability to lead the party to electoral victories. The party has struggled to manage rising criticism over the funding scandal, while soaring prices have left his cabinet’s support levels hovering around 25% this year, occasionally dipping below 20%.

    Conservative yet named liberal, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has no shortage of potential leaders. Among the likely successors are Shigeru Ishiba, a centrist and former defense secretary, and Taro Kono, the charismatic digital minister. The race for the LDP presidency may also feature female candidates, raising the possibility that Japan could have its first female prime minister. Ultra-conservative economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and former internal affairs minister Seiko Noda, both of whom ran against Kishida in the 2021 leadership race, might consider running again, though it’s unclear if either can secure the support of the 20 lawmakers needed to enter the race. Foreign minister Yoko Kamikawa is also mentioned as a potential candidate. The leader selected in next month’s party polls will become the new prime minister. 

    Kishida was elected president of the LDP in September 2021 for a three-year term, and went on to win a general election. Under his leadership, Japan bolstered its alliances with U.S. partners to address China’s expanding influence. However, public dissatisfaction increased due to the LDP’s links with the former Unification Church, which became evident after Abe’s assassination. Additionally, scandals involving slush funds and the yen’s decline, which contributed to inflation, further eroded trust. Kishida also faced criticism for failing to ensure that wages kept up with rising living costs as Japan moved past years of deflation.

    Kishida’s successor will be Japan’s third prime minister since Shinzo Abe, the longest-serving leader in the country’s history, stepped down in September 2020. Although the new prime minister will have the advantage of a strong LDP majority in parliament, he will need to prove his capability to secure a longer term. The incoming leader will face increasing international uncertainty, including the election of a new U.S. president, and growing domestic concerns over the cost of living crisis. Opposition parties are likely to intensify their campaigns, given their current best opportunity to challenge the administration after being out of power since Abe’s first term in 2012. 

    Japan is in urgent need of strong leadership amid rising threats from China, shifting U.S. leadership, and a declining economy. Therefore, the LDP’s upcoming election is a crucial event for both Japan and Asia.

  • US and Japan Are Getting Ready for China

    US and Japan Are Getting Ready for China

    The United States and its top ally in the Asia-Pacific, Japan, are preparing for a potential confrontation with China in the near future. As part of this effort, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been making frequent trips to Tokyo, where he holds essential meetings with his Japanese counterpart and signs important agreements, including plans to increase arms production to address China’s aggression.

    Most recently, Secretary Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with their Japanese counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Minoru Kihara, in Tokyo at the US-Japan Security Consultative Committee, referred to as the “2+2” talks. They reaffirmed their alliance in the wake of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the November presidential race. Both US and Japanese defense leaders, along with senior diplomats, agreed to strengthen their military cooperation regardless of any administrative changes, acknowledging that China remains a significant threat to both nations.

    Japan, which dismantled its military after its defeat in World War II, is now rapidly remilitarizing with the support of the US in response to threats from China. They are increasing investments in the defense sector and strengthening military cooperation with regional allies. And the US and Japan are upgrading the command and control of US forces stationed in Japan and boosting American-licensed missile production. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin noted that the command upgrade will be the most significant change to the US Forces Japan since its creation and one of the strongest improvements in the military ties with Japan in 70 years. These new operational capabilities and responsibilities will advance collective deterrence. Japan is home to more than 50,000 US troops, but the commander of the US Forces Japan (USFJ), based in Yokota in the western suburbs of Tokyo, currently has no direct command authority. Instead, directives are issued by the United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in Hawaii.

    Diplomatic meetings among “Asian NATO” countries are increasing rapidly. With China making slow progress on its economic goals, there is growing concern that it might turn to its political interests. Japan, due to historical tensions and its geographical proximity, could become a primary target if China decides to act. So, Japan is taking swift measures to counter Chinese ambitions in the region. It is evident that the weakened Japan emboldens China both economically and politically. Therefore, the United States is actively encouraging Japan to adopt a more assertive stance and is prepared to offer full support. Given the strong alliance between China, North Korea, and Russia, the United States recognizes that this coalition cannot be managed alone and views Japan as its most reliable partner in the region.

    Escalating regional tensions into full-blown war would be disastrous for everyone involved. While conflict is always costly, creating fear in an opponent can be an effective strategy. Political analysts suggest that the US and Japan are working together with this strategy to counter China’s ambitions. Sometimes, showcasing military strength can be more effective in maintaining peace than negotiations alone.  Following the recent 2+2 talks with Japan, the US announced its commitment to “Extended Deterrence”, including nuclear weapons, in response to nuclear threats from Russia and China. This marks a significant shift from Japan’s previous reluctance to openly address this sensitive issue, given its history as the only country to have endured atomic attacks.

  • Tokyo Election Set Up with Women Candidates in the Spotlight

    Tokyo Election Set Up with Women Candidates in the Spotlight

    Tokyo, the capital of Japan, is not just another Asian city; it’s the most populous city in the world, with numerous institutes that influence the entire Asian economy. The city extends into a vast metropolis or prefecture, comprising around 40 million people who live densely, making it a city with a high cost of living and high rental rates, but a GDP that almost rivals that of the Netherlands. Tokyo is setting off the governor election on July 7, and campaigns kicked off last week. Interestingly, two women are the leading candidates in the upcoming Tokyo election, representing major parties in a highly male-dominated political landscape. The Tokyo election of 2024 is led by the incumbent Yuriko Koike, who has been in charge since 2016 and represents the governing conservative but named Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has presented Renho Murata as the challenger. The Tokyo election is expected to be a proxy war between the country’s two main political parties.

    Koike, 71, has an impressive record in administration, guiding the city through the most challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic. The city, severely hit by the pandemic, implemented lockdowns that included tight controls. Interestingly, she conducted the Summer Olympics during this challenging time. The prestigious Tokyo Olympics 2021 was a great success, even though she faced a lot of opposition to conducting the Olympics under such challenging conditions. Considering the obstacles faced, the Tokyo Olympics was one of the most successful events in recent years. These achievements make Koike, a former TV anchor first elected to the lower house of parliament in 1993, the frontrunner in the upcoming Tokyo election. She now owns her party, Tomin First, though receives strong support from the LDP, as well as from parties like Komeito and the Democratic Party for the People. There are no major allegations against her, despite a funding scandal involving her party and a dispute over her academic qualifications.

    Renho, the main challenger of Koike, represents center-left politics and, with the support of the opposition party, the CDP, is expected to give a tough fight to Koike in the Tokyo election. Renho, born to a Japanese mother and Taiwanese father, was also a television personality like Koike and a former swimsuit model. She entered politics as an upper house member in 2004 and became the first female leader of Japan’s biggest opposition party, the CDP, in 2016. She contested the presidential election as an independent, though with the support of the CDP and the Japanese Communist Party. Renho sparked a minor controversy when she became opposition leader in 2016 by revealing that she still held dual Japanese and Taiwanese nationality, despite earlier insisting that she had become a naturalized Japanese citizen in her teens. Japanese law requires individuals with dual nationality to choose one before they turn 22. Renho later renounced her Taiwanese citizenship.

    The demographic crisis is the biggest topic in the Tokyo election as well as in Japanese politics. Lowering fertility rates and connected issues, ranging from work-life balance to economic decline, have become heated topics in the Tokyo election. Nationwide, the fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, stands at 1.2 – significantly below the 2.07 needed to maintain a stable population. The situation in Tokyo is even more urgent, with its birth rate at 0.99, the lowest among Japan’s 47 prefectures. The frontrunners have clashed over their plans to raise the birth rate, with Koike promising lower rents for families and free daycare for married couples first children. Renho has said she would pressure companies to improve their employees work-life balance. She aims to make life in Tokyo more appealing and turn it into a destination for Japan’s young people seeking their ideal lifestyle. However, many people are demanding a clear blueprint for tackling these challenges before the July 7 vote.

    The 2024 Tokyo gubernatorial election will feature a total of 56 candidates from across the political spectrum. The previous election, held on July 5, 2020, resulted in the incumbent Yuriko Koike being re-elected for a second term in a landslide, increasing her share of the vote to 59.7%. This result was widely viewed as an endorsement of her handling of Tokyo’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many believe that the 2020 election result was influenced by the pandemic situation and that Koike may not be able to repeat her victory this time. Additionally, the current political climate in the country is not favorable for the LDP. However, The 2024 election, led by two female candidates, is expected to draw significant interest not only from Japan but also from around the world.

  • How will “Squad” be beneficial for the Philippines?

    How will “Squad” be beneficial for the Philippines?

    Amid rising tensions, more regional blocs are emerging in East Asia and the Pacific. In addition to the Quad, consisting of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, and AUKUS, a defense pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US, a new regional bloc linking Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States is getting advanced into a more permanent alliance. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met counterparts from Australia, Japan, and the Philippines last week as Washington sought to deepen ties within the rising regional group, which Pentagon officials had privately nicknamed the “‘Squad”. The quadrilateral marks the latest regional partnership Washington has forged to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the region, and the formation of the alliance holds importance in the region’s evolving landscape as the United States expects imminent tensions in the region.

    The Philippines confronts substantial risks in the South China Sea, owing to its geography and close proximity to the Chinese shore. Nevertheless, the informal alliance referred to as the Squad offers a significant opportunity for the country. The Philippines will receive security assistance including both hardware and human resource training. Analysts suggest that this alliance will enable Manila to “Borrow the Strength” of the other three nations in countering challenges from China and in elevating the Philippines status beyond that of a “Junior Partner”. The Squad is expected to undertake more maritime exercises and provide greater security assistance to the Philippines, which in recent months has been involved in several naval skirmishes with Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. Washington has made it clear to all nations, including China, that Beijing’s recent behavior in the disputed waterway is “Irresponsible” and “Disregards International Law”. 

    The Squad will not just provide Manila with enhanced “Diplomatic Assurances” and assistance in building its capabilities but also guarantee increased interoperability between the Philippines and its allies. The absence of the Philippines in the Quad, formed between Asia-Pacific superpowers like Australia, Japan, India, and the United States, was notable. When India, traditionally allied with Russia, joined forces to counter China, the Philippines, the United States key ally in the region, was not included. This omission appeared to disregard the importance of the Philippines in the regional tensions, but the new alliance appears to rectify this.  Many believe there will be the move to  integrate the Philippines into the Quad to turn it into a five-member grouping, and some believe the United States forming an Asia-Pacific version of NATO. There are more countries in the region facing the threat of China and have entered into separate pacts with the US, such as Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. They could join with them when analyzing the tensions in the region.

    However, there are also dissenting voices; some argue that likening China to the Soviet Union or Russia is a mistake, suggesting that these agreements primarily benefit US interests. Chinese analysts warned that the Philippines had become increasingly manipulated by the US, losing its autonomy and becoming a pawn of the US in the region. Countries like India, never an ally of the US, have joined with them only to counter China, and they hold separate interests in the region. The integrating security pact will not agree with India, as they have been seeking separate relationships, including with the Philippines. India has forged ties with Manila, as seen in the recent sales of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines, noting that India-Philippines ties were likely to progress in non-traditional security areas such as cybersecurity, anti-piracy, and anti-terrorism. Last month, India delivered its first batch of supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines under a $375 million deal signed in 2022. However, the recent aggression of China on Philippines vessels is validating the Philippines moves and bringing the country to the center of tensions. 

    The United States can’t allow a situation like Ukraine in the South China Sea because significant suffering is occurring for the US and Europe due to the war. Additionally, as China seems to be losing momentum and facing significant challenges in its manufacturing sector, many predict that this situation will lead to an aggressive stance from China in the South China Sea, with the Philippines being a sure target in that situation. Here underscores the significance of the Squad; a bolstered opposition could prompt China to reassess its position. For the Philippines, it extends beyond security concerns; they foresee that aligning with the US can elevate them to the status of a regional power.