Tag: Lebanon

With the New President, Can Lebanon Chart a Course Toward the West?

Lebanon, grappling with political, economic, and social unrest, seems to be shifting away from Iran’s influence by electing a new president who is supported by the West and advocates for a stronger Lebanon. The country’s parliament has chosen Army Commander Joseph Aoun as the new president, ending a two-year vacancy and raising hopes for the long-term stability of a ceasefire with Israel. Aoun received 99 out of 128 votes in the parliament’s 13th attempt to select a new head of state, succeeding former President Michel Aoun—who is unrelated to Joseph Aoun—after his departure in October 2022.

Lebanon’s political system often undermines democratic principles, with a convoluted structure built around a confessionalist framework that allocates key political positions to religious communities through quotas. The system requires the president to be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister to come from the Sunni branch of Islam, and the speaker of Parliament to be from the Shia branch of Islam—reflecting a fragile power-sharing arrangement. Political appointments, from the presidency to parliamentary seats, strictly follow sectarian divisions. The parliament elects the president for a single six-year term, and the president works with lawmakers to appoint the prime minister, adhering to the same quota system. Sectarian interests dominate political parties, complicating governance and eroding democratic values. This flawed structure has led to Lebanon’s mismanagement, resulting in one of the most severe economic and sociological crises in modern history. According to the United Nations, over 80%—or four out of five—of Lebanon’s population now lives in poverty.

While the presidency in Lebanon holds limited authority, the election of Joseph Aoun hints at a significant shift in the country’s political trajectory. Aoun, who has built strong ties with international powers like Saudi Arabia, France, and the United States during his time as the head of Lebanon’s armed forces, reflects a broader trend of Lebanon leaning westward and distancing itself from Iran’s influence.

Iran’s sway has been steadily diminishing, a process notably accelerated by the 2022 parliamentary elections. In those elections, the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement and its allies lost their majority in parliament, signaling a notable decline in Tehran’s grip on the country. At the same time, Hezbollah’s Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement of outgoing President Michel Aoun, was overtaken as the dominant Christian faction by the Lebanese Forces, a party led by Samir Geagea, who shares close ties with Saudi Arabia.

The evolution in Lebanon’s politics mirrors the broader regional shifts, particularly Turkey’s efforts to limit Iran’s influence in Syria. Now, with Saudi Arabia—another U.S. ally—on the scene, it seems likely that the Kingdom will play a central role in weakening Iran’s hold over Lebanon, marking a strategic recalibration in the delicate balance of power.

International leaders, particularly from the West, expressed optimism over the election of Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun. A spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the election as an important step toward resolving Lebanon’s long-standing political and institutional impasse, which had persisted for over two years due to the presidential vacancy. U.S. President Joe Biden praised Aoun as a suitable leader for the current challenges facing Lebanon.

Aoun’s primary focus will be on strengthening the Lebanese army, especially in southern Lebanon, where its authority has been challenged since the late 1970s by groups like the Palestine Liberation Organization and Hezbollah. His efforts are expected to be bolstered by assistance from Saudi Arabia, the United States, and France, and Israel is likely to view these developments positively as they improve security along its northern border. After his election, Aoun addressed parliament, emphasizing the state’s right to control the possession of weapons and highlighting the importance of the army in safeguarding Lebanon’s borders.

The 2004 UN resolution required all armed groups in Lebanon to disarm, but Hezbollah has refused to comply, insisting it is the only force capable of defending Lebanon from Israel. However, he has an opportunity to act as Hezbollah grapples with mounting difficulties, including Iran’s waning regional influence and reduced support from Syria. During Lebanon’s prolonged leadership vacuum, Hezbollah exploited the instability to tighten its grip on southern Lebanon and engage in skirmishes with Israel. By reinforcing the army, Aoun can directly counter Hezbollah’s dominance in the region.

Hope is on the rise in Lebanon with the election of a new, Western-backed president and the diminishing influence of both Hezbollah and Iran. Now, the country stands at a pivotal moment to rebuild and strengthen its institutions. However, this task will not be simple, as Lebanon’s deep-rooted divisions remain a significant obstacle. Yet, with strong leadership, support from global powers, and a weakened opposition, the Lebanese president is presented with a better opportunity. Though President Aoun faces limitations due to Lebanon’s unique constitution, his six-year term gives him a critical platform to shape the nation’s future. He will also play a vital role in the 2026 parliamentary elections—or potentially in a snap election—that could break the long-standing political deadlock. This moment marks a potential shift toward the West, signaling that Lebanon is indeed charting a new course in its international orientation.

January 13, 2025
Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire: A Path to Peace or a Temporary Pause?

Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire, bringing an end to their latest wave of conflict. The truce went into effect at 4 a.m. Wednesday in Lebanon, drawing praise from peace advocates and world leaders. However, Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, including several in the city center, occurred just before the ceasefire began, further contributing to the chaos on the ground. The Israeli military issued warnings to residents in southern Lebanon to avoid IDF positions and evacuated villages. Despite the warnings and ongoing uncertainty, residents filled the roads from Beirut to southern Lebanon, determined to return to their homes. Hezbollah and the Amal political movement provided guidance for those returning to villages south of the Litani River. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government remained silent, revealing its inability to assert authority or manage the unfolding situation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu endorsed the deal after his full cabinet approved it, despite opposition from his far-right allies. In televised remarks following the Israeli security cabinet’s vote on the 60-day ceasefire proposal, Netanyahu confirmed his readiness to implement the deal but stressed that Israel would retain full military freedom to act if Hezbollah violated the ceasefire.

The 60-day agreement, spanning two months, is grounded in UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought an end to the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah but remains only partially enforced. Under its terms, Israel must withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah is required to move its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River, about 25 kilometers from the border. During the transition, the Western-backed Lebanese army is expected to take up positions in the south.

Although Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government, its forces are not included in the official military. A copy of the ceasefire deal, reviewed by Reuters, specifies that only official military and security forces in Lebanon may carry weapons. While Hezbollah is unlikely to fully disarm, it may reduce its visible armed presence. Israel has consistently criticized Hezbollah for stationing weapons near its border.

Both parties repeatedly cycle through conflicts and ceasefires, demonstrating that neither truly seeks lasting peace. This time, they paused strategically and agreed to a truce because both required time. Their deep-rooted hatred persists without any signs of diminishing. Hezbollah considers expelling Jews a religious obligation, while Israel, fueled by the memory of the October 7th attack, remains driven by a desire for vengeance. Hezbollah uses the truce to rebuild its infrastructure, which Israel’s attacks and the loss of its top leader have severely damaged. At the same time, Israel works to strengthen ties with the incoming Trump administration and avoid escalating the conflict further, as doing so could harm its business relationships with Gulf states. And the truce gives Israel an opportunity to shift its focus toward Gaza.

Will this ceasefire pave the way for one in Gaza? That remains unclear. Israel has not shifted its focus toward securing a truce in Gaza. The current agreement does not address the ongoing conflict there, where U.S.-led efforts to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have so far failed. Negotiators deliberately excluded Gaza from the discussions. When asked about the possibility of a Gaza ceasefire, Biden expressed cautious optimism, stating that he believed it was possible and hoped for it. However, Israel may delay addressing the Gaza conflict until Trump takes office, when he could bring a plan for Gaza that heavily favors Israel’s interests.

November 28, 2024
Israel Aims to End the “Axis of Resistance”

Hamas lies in ruins, Hezbollah is in disarray, and the Houthis are increasingly under attack. Iran, the chief backer of these groups, has lost both its key strategist and its revered military leader to assassination. The so-called Axis of Resistance – formed as a Shia military coalition in solidarity with the Palestinian cause, with the goal of destroying the Jewish state and asserting Shia Islamic dominance – now faces an existential crisis. Following the unprecedented assault it suffered on October 7, Israel, with precise and methodical force, has embarked on a campaign to eliminate all remaining threats. Its multi-front offensive is not only altering the regional balance but driving this once formidable alliance to the brink of collapse.

Israel remains resolute in its campaign, despite criticism from international media, political groups, and human rights organizations, as it continues to prioritize its security. The Israeli military presses forward, targeting key Hamas leaders, even those who believe they are safe outside Gaza, showing little regard for the ongoing hostage situation. However, the expansion of operations into Lebanon to target Hezbollah was less anticipated. Hezbollah presents a more geographically and strategically challenging position for Israel, as it operates from Lebanon with access to Iranian support and maintains a robust infrastructure, often blending into civilian populations.

However, Israel’s intelligence apparatus, including Mossad, has delivered significant blows to Hezbollah, which could shatter the group’s confidence and operational strength. On September 17th and 18th, a coordinated electronic attack using pager bombs killed several Hezbollah operatives. There were also reports following the deaths of several high-ranking leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s longtime commander, along with other key figures. Although Hezbollah denies it, Israel claims to have also killed Abu Ali Rida, Hezbollah’s last remaining senior military commander. Meanwhile, Israel continues to launch precise missile strikes against Hezbollah targets, including second-tier leaders and munitions, in contrast to Hezbollah’s less effective retaliatory fire.

Beyond military action, Israel is reportedly attempting to strategically exploit divisions within Lebanon’s population, particularly among Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shia Muslims who migrated from the south. Social discourse is filled with reflections on Lebanon’s rich history and its decline, attributed to the influx of this migrated population. Lebanese expatriates lament the country’s downfall, blaming these sectarian divisions, which further weaken Lebanon’s defenses against cross-border actions. This narrative helps to portray Israel’s actions as targeting Hezbollah, not Lebanon itself.

Unlike in the past, Sunni Arab nations, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, appear unwilling to intervene in Lebanon’s favor. Previously, they had united to fight against Israel in solidarity with Palestine. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia, a Sunni powerhouse, is likely content as Israel begins to target the Houthis in Yemen – another Iranian-backed faction that has fought against Saudi Arabia. The Houthis, who previously launched missiles at key Saudi targets and inflicted significant losses, have also attacked Israeli-linked ships and even launched missiles toward Israel, making them the next likely target of Israeli strikes. Israel has already initiated attacks on the Houthis, and, much like with Hezbollah, its approach appears calculated and deliberate.

Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq, two collapsed countries due to civil war and foreign interests, are also expected to attack Israel in solidarity with Palestine as part of Iran’s axis of resistance. Although they are trained and supported by Tehran, they currently pose less of a direct threat to Israel. Israel will likely neutralize them with relative ease, as it has done with similar threats in the past.

The leader of the axis of resistance, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is now facing its greatest setback. They are losing control over other states through their Shia military units due to Israel’s actions. And It is a humiliation for them, as Israel’s reach extends within borders to eliminate key leaders of these militant groups who seek refuge in Iran. No Iranian city is now beyond Israel’s reach, making the country increasingly vulnerable. Some even accuse Israel of orchestrating the killing of former president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash. Israel is also reportedly working to destabilize the Islamic Republic through information warfare, posing a significant threat to the very existence of the regime.

The Israel-Hamas conflict, often labeled by the media as the Israel-Palestine conflict, is increasingly being viewed as an Israel-Iran conflict. No Arab countries are showing interest in this situation, not even the official governments of Lebanon and Yemen. Iran and its proxies, known as the axis of resistance, are isolated and now feeling the full wrath of Israel.

September 30, 2024
Israel Expands War to Southern Lebanon

After a series of missile exchanges and targeted strikes, it is clear that Israel is now at war with Hezbollah. Having nearly completed its campaign in Gaza, Israel is shifting its focus to the next target, following a well-executed plan. However, this conflict will not be as straightforward as Gaza. In Gaza, Israel primarily dealt with media coverage of civilian casualties – images of dead bodies, crying children, and grieving women that fueled international outrage from left-wing and liberal movements. Militarily, Hamas posed little threat. In contrast, Hezbollah operates from Lebanon, an independent country with strategic advantages, such as its mountainous terrain and easy connections to Iran and other regional militant groups. Nevertheless, Israel appears determined, and the war is already in motion. Lebanon, a nation already devastated by economic and political collapse, faces the grim possibility of becoming the next Gaza.

Lebanon’s health ministry reports that at least 500 people have been killed and 1,645 injured in a series of Israeli airstrikes on alleged Hezbollah targets, marking the highest daily death toll in the country since the end of its civil war in 1990. As Israel intensifies its offensive, thousands of residents are fleeing towns and villages in southern Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the military’s actions as shifting the security balance along Israel’s northern border, though his remarks seemed to downplay the severity of the situation. Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, indicated that the military is preparing for the next phases in Lebanon, withholding further details. Israel appears determined to dismantle Hezbollah’s parallel governance in southern Lebanon, which it claims exists solely to target Israel and pursue a religious mandate to kill Jews.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported striking over 1,300 Hezbollah targets in the past day, marking its most extensive assault on the group since the Gaza war began last October, when Hezbollah started attacking in solidarity with Hamas. The success rate of Israel’s missile operations remains high, and more strikes are expected in the coming days, possibly before any ground invasion is considered. Earlier in the day, the IDF issued warnings to Lebanese residents in Beirut and other areas via phone calls, urging them to evacuate and avoid buildings suspected of housing Hezbollah weapons. Israeli media later clarified that these strikes were not indiscriminate missile barrages but were specifically targeting Hezbollah operatives, including Ali Karaki, the group’s third-ranking military commander. Reports suggest the operation was successful. Meanwhile, about 35 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward Israel’s Safed area, with some landing in open fields near the community of Ami’ad, according to the IDF.

Lebanon is now bracing for the possibility of a ground war, not by mobilizing its military but by focusing on protecting its citizens. A direct confrontation with Israel is beyond the country’s capabilities, and unlike Hezbollah, the Lebanese people do not view martyrdom in battle as a national or religious duty. Families fleeing southern Lebanon are publicly pleading for apartments or rooms to shelter their loved ones. Grassroots housing efforts have quickly emerged, with individuals coordinating calls for available spaces and hostels offering discounted rates to those displaced by the conflict. Meanwhile, international efforts to evacuate foreign nationals from Lebanon are underway, with countries like the U.S. issuing calls for peace, though such interventions often prove ineffective. Hezbollah, for its part, has vowed to continue its strikes in support of Palestinians and Hamas.

For over four decades, a shadowy and unyielding conflict has simmered between Israel and Hezbollah. Now, with steely determination, and despite the geographic and military risk factors, Israel appears intent on bringing this protracted struggle to a definitive conclusion. Israel’s resolute commitment to pursue this conflict may push Hezbollah into a corner, even though they appear stronger on paper. It is clear that, just as Gazan civilians have borne the brunt of hostilities, Lebanese civilians, too, will face the consequences. While Israel has been forged in the crucible of existential threats and built to withstand aggression, Lebanon, fractured and vulnerable, is far less prepared and could easily collapse. Should a ground war unfold, it would not only devastate Lebanon but also send ripples throughout the region. Such a conflict would signal to militants in Syria, Yemen, and Iran that they need to prepare for what lies ahead.

September 26, 2024
What is happening in Lebanon?

Lebanon, the volatile home of Hezbollah, finds itself reeling from a bewildering series of explosions. Just a day after thousands of pagers detonated in unison across the country, a new wave of blasts from seemingly innocuous devices – walkie-talkies, laptops, radios – claimed the lives of 14 people, injuring 450 more. On Tuesday, the shocking detonations of pagers linked to Hezbollah members killed 12 and left nearly 3,000 injured, a grim spectacle that stunned not only Lebanon but the world, both in its method and its sheer scale of destruction. By Wednesday, reports of further explosions spread like wildfire across messaging apps, with disturbing images of shattered devices and smoldering buildings circulating rapidly,

As Lebanon teeters on the brink, already frayed by political dysfunction and administrative paralysis, it faces a new and bewildering crisis. The source of these devastating attacks remains shrouded in mystery, and citizens, now fearful of their own electronic devices, find themselves paralyzed in a country unable—or unwilling – to respond. While Israel has yet to officially claim responsibility, many cast accusatory glances in its direction. Civilians are increasingly caught in the crossfire, victims of what appears to be Israel’s widening focus on Hezbollah. Yet within Hezbollah itself, a disquieting confusion has surfaced, even as the group vows retribution. The ominous specter of a Hezbollah-Israel conflict hangs in the air, inching Lebanon ever closer to the precipice of war. Poor Lebanon, once again.

Information is still emerging, but multiple explosions were reported on Wednesday afternoon in Beirut’s southern suburbs and the southern city of Tyre. Social media images showed vehicles ablaze and smoke billowing from residential areas, as reports of walkie-talkies and even solar cells exploding surfaced. Shockingly, blasts were reported at funerals as well. Chaos gripped the streets, with ambulances rushing to aid the injured and panic spreading as more explosions were reported.

There is growing fear among the public about how Israel might have executed such an operation, raising concerns over the involvement of vast global supply chains, stretching from Japan and Taiwan to Europe. Some suspect these supply chains may have been infiltrated, allowing devices to be equipped with small amounts of high-powered explosives – between 1 and 3 grams. Reports suggest that Hezbollah members suspect the blasts are linked to batteries, with several removing and discarding batteries from their radios after one exploded during a funeral in Beirut. While most affected devices appeared to be communication systems, there were also reports of other objects, like solar panels, causing explosions.

Israel has neither claimed responsibility nor made any official comments regarding the explosions. However, investigations are underway by various parties, and international media has ramped up its coverage, saturating the digital sphere with the unfolding story. Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have pointed fingers at Israel for the attacks. Experts believe as Israel’s operations in Gaza approach their final stages, and they are moving to the next stage. Israel’s long-term strategy remains unclear, but these explosions represent a significant escalation against Hezbollah and Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced on Wednesday that the army would redirect resources and forces from its nearly year long campaign in Gaza to the northern front.

The attacks dealt a heavy blow to Hezbollah, not only operationally but also in terms of psychological warfare, raising questions about the group’s standing within Lebanon. As Israel wraps up its operations in Gaza, it now faces threats primarily from the north, particularly along its borders with Lebanon and Syria. In Syria, Israel holds an advantage due to its control over key strategic areas, but Lebanon presents a more complex risk. The recent explosions seem to signal Israel’s intent to pressure both Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah, demonstrating that no one is beyond its reach.

Hezbollah has vowed revenge, but it must acknowledge that Israeli intelligence operates with a sophistication that may surpass its own capabilities. Despite this, Hezbollah faces a critical dilemma; the attacks have been a severe blow to its reputation, and failure to retaliate could undermine its very existence. As tensions rise, the Lebanese people should brace themselves for further hardship.

September 19, 2024
Will Pager explosions escalate tensions in the Middle East?

Lebanon was rocked by a series of explosions that seemed straight out of a Hollywood spy thriller, with pagers used in a meticulously coordinated attack targeting Hezbollah leaders and Iranian diplomats. While Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility, the precision and scale of the operation bear unmistakable signs of Mossad’s involvement. In what appears to be an intelligence-driven strike, thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah members were detonated simultaneously. Early reports indicate at least twelve deaths and around 3000 injuries across dozens, if not hundreds, of explosions. The attack highlights a relentless drive to strike at Hezbollah, which had adopted pagers as a less traceable communication tool, avoiding the location risks posed by mobile phones.

Diplomats, netizens, and Iranian officials are certain of Israel’s involvement in these recent attacks, viewing them as part of Mossad’s ongoing campaign against high-profile targets. Initial reports indicate that the pagers, a new model possibly compromised during the supply chain process, were also intended for use in Europe – further evidence pointing to Israeli intelligence. Such tactics are not without precedent. In January 1996, a rigged mobile phone was used to assassinate Yahya Ayyash, Hamas’s chief bomb maker, in Gaza City. Since Israel’s renewed conflict with Hamas, efforts to eliminate militant leaders have intensified. In August, Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, was killed by a short-range projectile in Tehran, prompting Iran to warn of direct military retaliation against Israel.

As Israel’s war in Gaza approaches its second year, the conflict has expanded beyond Hamas to include the wider “Axis of Resistance”, which encompasses various Iran-backed militias. Bombings, missile strikes, and targeted attacks have become routine between these factions, with increasing clashes along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, home to the Iran-supported Hezbollah. While a full-scale regional war involving Arab nations, including Lebanon and Iran, seems unlikely, many experts believe the chances of a conflict like the previous Arab-Israeli wars are low. However, Israel’s intensified targeting of key leaders is becoming a major concern for the axis of resistance. The recent pager attack highlights Israel’s capabilities and the opposition’s vulnerability, leaving Hezbollah and others under pressure to restore their standing in the Islamic world. Failure to act could lead to an existential crisis for these groups, as their legitimacy is tied to their fight against Israel. Many predict a potential full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel, with Hezbollah nearing a possible endgame. Israel’s demands for peace will not be met by eliminating Hamas alone, as Hezbollah continues to pose a similar threat from the north. The likelihood of war appears increasingly imminent, while international negotiations remain ineffective, with the U.S. downplaying the severity of the situation.

If Israel’s involvement in recent events is confirmed, it would represent a major escalation. Further attacks in Lebanon seem likely, given Israel’s apparent determination to eradicate the threats it faces, potentially targeting Hezbollah as well. With Hezbollah pressured to respond, Israel appears ready for their counteractions. Additionally, Houthi forces and Syrian militants might also need to be cautious of Pagers.

September 18, 2024
Iran Is Forced, But Are They Capable?

Iran is deeply humiliated by Israel’s killing of the Hamas chief in Tehran. Although it was anticipated that Israel might target him, the attack did not occur while he was in Gaza or Qatar. Instead, Israel chose to act when he arrived in Iran for the new president’s inauguration. As a major player in the Islamic world and the only country actively opposing Israel, Iran views this as a significant humiliation. This incident is not unprecedented; Israel has previously targeted several high-ranking Iranian officials, and some experts even speculate that Ebrahim Raisi might be a target. Iran’s regime feels compelled to retaliate to maintain its strong image domestically and its status as a defender of Islam globally. While previous responses have involved ceremonial missile launches, such a response may no longer suffice. But are they capable?

Iran is undeniably a superpower in the Middle East, boasting a formidable military force. As of 2024, the Iranian Armed Forces are the second-largest in the region, surpassed only by the Egyptian Armed Forces in terms of active troops. Iran’s military consists of approximately 425,000 active-duty personnel and an additional 100,000 reserves and trained personnel available when needed. These numbers do not include the Law Enforcement Command or the Basij. Despite its numerical advantage over Israel, Iran faces more challenges than opportunities.

Most of Iran’s imported weapons are American systems acquired during the shah’s regime before the Islamic Revolution. Following international sanctions, Iran initiated a strong domestic rearmament program, resulting in an increasingly indigenous military inventory. By the 2000s, Iran had become an exporter of arms, although the effectiveness of its domestically manufactured items remains. The country has invested significantly in an ambitious ballistic and cruise missile program to enhance its mid-range strike capability, though updates on its progress are scarce. Additionally, Iran produces a variety of arms and munitions, including tanks, armored vehicles, drones, and an array of naval assets and aerial defense systems, which could be crucial in a conflict.

Iran has purchased some munitions from Russia in addition to its indigenous weapons. However, since Russia is currently at war, it cannot meet Iran’s demand. It is uncertain whether other superpowers in Asia, such as China and India, will supply munitions to Iran. Supplying munitions would likely invite U.S. sanctions, so Islamic countries will probably refrain from doing so.

The biggest challenge for Iran is that it does not share a border with Israel, so the size of its army does not provide an advantage. War through waterways is possible, but on all the routes through land and sea, U.S. allies are present and will likely stop them. Through the air, missiles are available, and they have been launched at Israel before, but Israel successfully blocked them. The only way that might work for Iran now is a joint attack with its allies in the region. However, there are doubts that these countries will cooperate with Iran now because they would suffer more than Iran if they intervened. However, it is certain that militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen will fight alongside Iran, and a joint attack with them is the only possibility for Iran. Iran is trying its best to partner with Islamic countries.

Iran has called in foreign ambassadors to Tehran to assert its moral duty to hold Israel accountable for what it views as provocations and violations of international law following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Tehran has also requested an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Wednesday to seek backing from Arab states for potential retaliatory measures against Israel. Many Gulf leaders have expressed their condemnation of Israel’s actions but are advising Iran to show restraint.

Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Security Council Secretary, arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iranian leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian. While discussions are advancing quickly, it remains uncertain how many countries will support Iran in its war against Israel.

Experts suggest that Iran is striving to maintain its image. To potentially promote peace, the U.S. might indirectly assist Iran by allowing a token attack, enabling Iran to claim retaliation. Iran could then shift blame to other Gulf states. At this stage, a full-scale war seems unlikely, as Iran recognizes the significant challenges and potential internal problems that such a conflict would create. Although missile strikes or proxy attacks might continue, the likelihood of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains low.

August 6, 2024
Israel-Lebanon Tensions Mount as Beirut Is Hit

Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have been exchanging fire across the border since last October, with daily confrontations gradually intensifying. Deaths and casualties have been reported from both sides, and thousands of people have been displaced from their homes on both sides of the border. The conflict has been between Israel and Hezbollah, not Lebanon. There has been no attack from Israel outside of southern Lebanon, which is a stronghold of Hezbollah. However, it has been clear that if either Israel or Hezbollah escalates the conflict, Lebanon, an already fragile country, will be forced to join. This is now feared to be happening.

Yesterday, Israel attacked a suburb of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Israel described it as a targeted operation to kill Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukur, who is wanted as a criminal. But, Lebanon is unhappy about the extension of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict into its densely populated capital city. The attack resulted in civilian casualties. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, three people, including two children, were killed, and 74 were injured in the attack.

Lebanon’s cabinet is reportedly holding important meetings to discuss the attack, which the caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, condemned as a criminal act by Israel. In his statement, he added that the Israeli killing machine has not been satisfied by targeting the south of Lebanon and the Bekaa; it has now reached the heart of the capital, Beirut, just meters away from one of the largest hospitals and near the city’s important international airport.

.In reality, Beirut had been bracing for Israel’s response to a rocket strike on a children’s football match in the occupied Golan Heights three days earlier. However, the attack on Beirut came as a surprise. The Golan Heights attack was attributed to Hezbollah, with both Israel and the U.S. blaming the group, though Hezbollah denied responsibility. Global leaders engaged in intensive diplomacy on Sunday to persuade Israel against escalating attacks on Lebanon, amid fears of a broader regional conflict. The U.S. has been spearheading global diplomatic efforts to prevent Israel from targeting Beirut or Lebanese infrastructure, aiming to avert a full-scale regional war. Although it was anticipated that Israel would retaliate, the assault on the capital city has left Lebanon feeling humiliated as an independent nation. Efforts are now underway to work with Lebanon to de-escalate the situation.

Despite widespread anger expressed on social media, the Lebanese government is actively working to ease tensions. Lebanon’s foreign minister called the strike on Beirut a shock, given prior assurances from Israel’s allies that the country was planning a limited response that would not escalate into war. Lebanon plans to file a complaint with the UN Security Council and has requested Hezbollah to carry out a proportional retaliation. He stressed the need to end the cycle of destruction, killing, and death. In a briefing, Hagari noted that Hezbollah’s ongoing aggression and brutal attacks are pulling Lebanon and the entire Middle East into a broader escalation. It looks like Israel also aims to resolve hostilities without a larger war, the IDF is fully prepared for any scenario.

Both parties are growing increasingly vigilant as the situation in the region reaches a state of heightened tension. Tensions in Lebanon have escalated to its peak since Saturday’s rocket strike on a town that killed 12 children playing football. Queues formed at petrol stations across the city as people filled their cars in anticipation of further escalation. Many airlines have canceled flights to Beirut, with Greece’s Aegean Airlines and Germany’s Condor joining Royal Jordanian, Air France, and Lufthansa in suspending services. But the chance of full scale war is less, because both parties will suffer.

Hezbollah will need to retaliate now, and Israel will follow…

July 31, 2024
How Imminent is the Israel-Lebanon War?

There was a time when all Arab Islamic neighbors were a threat to Israel. There was a time when all Arab Islamic neighbors surrounding Israel decided to vanish the Jewish country from the Earth. There was a time when all the neighbors were the hope for an Islamic country in a land now called Israel. But now, it all seems like sleeping in history books. Arab Islamic nations, once advocated for Islamic solidarity and the liberation of Palestine from the river to the sea, now merely issue statements in support of Palestinians who face retaliation from Israel for terrorist attacks by Hamas, the rulers of Gaza. Egypt, once a major Arab power, is no longer prominently involved. Jordan and Syria are not capable without Egypt. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran, though they all claim to be the leader of Islamic nations, have not challenged Israel like Egypt once did, and possibly never in future. So Israel’s borders with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan are all safe now. But the border with Lebanon, which is home to a large Palestinian population and the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which has close ties with Hamas, poses a heavy risk for Israel. It’s certain that while Israel works on security issues with Hamas, they will also deal with threats from Hezbollah, possibly leading to cross-border attacks into Lebanon, and another Israel-Lebanon war soon.

The Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, affirmed a possible escalation of war with Lebanon, stating that a decision on an all-out war with Hezbollah was imminent. Israeli generals announced late on Tuesday that they had finalized plans for an offensive into Lebanon. These statements are considered as part of Israel’s efforts to ensure public support for the war before the attack in Lebanon, where Hezbollah is perceived, a threat to people in Israel. The escalating rhetoric followed the release of video footage from a Hezbollah surveillance drone’s overflight of the northern city of Haifa, which included images of sensitive sites and civilian neighborhoods. The broadcast of the footage was widely interpreted as a thinly veiled threat against Haifa and comes amid ongoing cross-border exchanges between the two sides. Northern Israel faced the most intense barrage of the conflict from Hezbollah last week following the Israeli operation that resulted in the death of a senior Hezbollah commander. Following threats by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to target Haifa’s ports, Katz stated in a post on X: “We are approaching the moment of deciding to change the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon”. He stated that, In a full-scale war, Hezbollah will face destruction, and Hezbollah’s host Lebanon will endure serious consequences.

Israel’s military later announced, “Operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon have been approved and validated, with decisions made to further increase troop readiness in the field”. Minister Katz’s comments came as the IDF announced on Tuesday that it had approved battle plans for Lebanon. During an assessment, IDF generals approved “Operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon”, including “Accelerating the readiness of forces on the ground”. Israel is considering the Hezbollah drone footage as a warning that they are capable of an attack similar to what Hamas carried out last year. The warnings came hours after Hezbollah released nine minutes of drone footage gathered from its surveillance overflight of locations in Israel, including residential areas. The distribution of the footage was highlighted by the Lebanese armed movement, including on its Telegram channel, urging viewers on several platforms to “Watch and Analyze” what it described as “Important Scenes.”

Even though a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon has not occurred since the 2006 war, tension between Israel and Hezbollah has always been present despite their agreements on ceasefire. Since the Hamas attack on Gaza, there have been ongoing skirmishes between them. Over the past eight months, Hezbollah has deployed surveillance and attack drones into Israel, engaging in fire exchanges with the Israeli military concurrently with the Gaza conflict. The decision to broadcast footage, which included images of residential and military sites in and around Haifa, including port facilities, seemed aimed as much at an Israeli audience as at a wider international one. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah stated in November that they had been sending surveillance drones over Haifa. Curiously, the release of this footage seemed to coincide with the visit of US envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon, which followed his meetings with senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the day before. The US called for “urgent” de-escalation of the cross-border exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli forces that have been ongoing since the start of the Gaza conflict. However, tensions escalate without showing down. Last week, Hezbollah launched hundreds of drones and rockets, with more than 200 fired on a single day, prompting Israeli military strikes on Hezbollah targets in response.

The latest exchange of threats between the two sides came as the US and France worked on a negotiated settlement to the hostilities along Lebanon’s southern boundary with Israel. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has endured for an extended period. It’s best to resolve it quickly and diplomatically, that is both achievable and urgent. However, Israel’s mission for safety will not be completed if they only tame Hezbollah. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Shiite militias in Syria can all be seen as a threat to Israel. But The level of support from Western countries for an escalation of war will be crucial. Netanyahu has dissolved the war cabinet to gain more control in the conflict, enjoying support in opinion polls. Upcoming conflict may also serve to deflect attention from previous corruption charges and public discontent during Netanyahu’s rule extension. Therefore, a possible conflict with Hezbollah is imminent and it seems likely and could lead to an Israel-Lebanon war, causing further destruction in Lebanon.

June 21, 2024