Tag: Mongolia

  • Why Mongolia Ignored the ICC Verdict and Welcomed Putin

    Why Mongolia Ignored the ICC Verdict and Welcomed Putin

    Mongolia, located between Russia and China – two major adversaries of the West – maintains good relations with Western nations and Japan and is a member of several international organizations that Russia and China oppose. Although often overlooked by global media, Mongolia attracted significant attention when Russian President Vladimir Putin chose to visit. Such a visit might normally be overlooked due to their extensive cooperation and Mongolia’s high reliance on Russia. However, the visit gained prominence because Mongolia is one of the few Asian members of the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant for Putin and calls for his detention.

    Vladimir Putin received a warm reception on Tuesday during his state visit to Mongolia. He engaged in discussions with President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh, a influential political figure who has previously served as Prime Minister and chairman of the ruling Mongolian People’s Party. Upon his arrival in Ulaanbaatar, Putin was greeted by an honor guard, including some on horseback, wearing traditional uniforms reminiscent of those worn by Genghis Khan, the legendary 13th-century Mongol ruler. President Khürelsükh praised the visit, and Putin noted that the relationship between the two countries is progressing across all areas. The visit was expected to focus on energy cooperation, as Mongolia lies along the planned route of a Russian pipeline designed to transport 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Russia’s Yamal region to China.

    The International Criminal Court (ICC) – the sole permanent tribunal entrusted with prosecuting individuals for crimes of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and aggression – issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin last year, holding him accountable for his actions in Ukraine. This warrant, a formal directive to the ICC’s 124 member states, including Mongolia, mandates that they apprehend Putin and transport him to The Hague should he set foot within their borders. As Putin prepared for his visit to Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, Ukraine, alongside leading human rights organizations, urged the Mongolian authorities to detain him upon arrival. Yet, Mongolia’s deep-seated dependence on Russia for nearly all of its petroleum and its hesitance to criticize Moscow’s invasion into Ukraine cast doubt on the likelihood of any such action. 

    Mongolia’s choices are limited by its geographic constraints and its borders with only China and Russia, making its economy, military, security, and political landscape heavily reliant on these two giants. Lacking seaports, Mongolia depends on road and rail connections to Russia and China, and any disruption in these links could precipitate economic turmoil and severe daily hardships. Historically shaped by Sino-Russian tensions, the sparsely populated nation has long acted as a buffer zone between these two powers. Should Mongolia choose to comply with international rulings and attempt to detain or arrest Putin, it risks retaliation from Russia and intensified pressure from China. Furthermore, aligning with other international actors, such as Japan, might provoke a significant backlash from both Russia and China, potentially leading to grave consequences for Mongolia. Thus, in navigating these treacherous waters, Mongolia may well opt to align with Russia, particularly in light of the already diminished authority of the International Criminal Court.

    Mongolia, endowed with mineral wealth and cultivating stronger ties with global powers, risks losing momentum through its current actions. Yet, aside from Ukraine, global attention on the conflict and associated sanctions remains relatively muted. Nations such as India, Kazakhstan, and the UAE – each maintaining cordial relations with Russia and Putin while pursuing substantial business engagements with the West – exemplify this broader trend. Mongolia can follow this precedent. Despite significant criticism from both the West and Ukraine, it remains impractical for this landlocked country, nestled between Russia and China and heavily dependent on Russia, to oppose Moscow or obstruct Putin.

  • Mongolia Chooses Ruling Party Despite Dire Economic Realities

    Mongolia Chooses Ruling Party Despite Dire Economic Realities

    Even though there are many factors against voting for the ruling party and prime minister, Mongolia allowed the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) and Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene to continue. Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene declared an early victory, but the parliamentary majority of the ruling party significantly diminished, reflecting deepening public anger over corruption and the state of the economy. An interesting aspect of the election result is that the opposition gained ground and more parties gained representation in parliament. Regardless of the outcome, it should be considered as a victory for Mongolian democracy, which conducted a democratic election while situated between highly authoritarian Russia and China. Additionally, millions of Mongolians turned out to elect 126 members of the State Great Khural, the country’s unicameral parliament.

    According to the latest reports from the Mongolia’s General Election Commission, the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) has secured a majority with 68 seats, four more than needed, and garnered 35.01% of the votes. This marks a significant drop from their 45% in the 2020 election, where they held 62 out of 76 seats. The main opposition Democratic Party, led by Luvsannyamyn Gantömör, won 42 seats and 30% of the votes, a notable increase from their 11 seats and 24% previously. This represents a win for the opposition as well. The minor anti-corruption HUN party secured eight seats and 10% of the votes, while smaller parties collectively won eight seats. These results, the first under a new electoral system where Mongolians vote for both proportional lists and individual representatives in large districts, mean that the MPP will govern with a significantly reduced majority. The new parliament will see the MPP holding 54% of the seats, compared to around 80% in 2020.

    The MPP, successor to Mongolia’s communist party that held power for almost 70 years, remains popular, especially among rural, conservative, and older voters, maintaining a vast, nationwide campaign infrastructure. Many critics liken the country to other post-Soviet Union nations in the region with authoritarian tendencies influenced by Russia and China. Therefore, they believe the authorities will try to consolidate power to maintain control. Analysts had anticipated the MPP to maintain the majority it has held since 2016 and govern for another four years. They attribute much of the party’s success to a coal mining boom that fueled double-digit growth, improved standards of living, and a formidable party machine. However, the campaign was overshadowed by widespread public frustration over endemic corruption, high living costs, and limited opportunities for the young majority. There is also a prevalent belief that profits from the coal mining boom are hoarded by a wealthy elite, leading to frequent protests. The election results reflect these sentiments.

    According to Bayarlkhagva Munkhnaran, an analyst and former official with the National Security Council of Mongolia, “This election result definitely represents a rebuke to the MPP and its leadership”. He added that winning 68 seats is “Barely a face-saver, and any subsequent government will be weak but much more democratic”. Despite the MPP’s victory in the election, many consider it a loss for the party within the framework of Mongolian politics. This sentiment was noted by Democratic Party leader Gantumur Luvsannyam, who stated, “Through this election, people have evaluated the past policy mistakes of the ruling party”.

    It was the first election following an important constitutional change and new electoral law. On Friday, people across the vast, sparsely populated nation of 3.4 million voted. Regardless of the outcome, the election is a win for democracy, especially considering the challenges it faces due to its location between authoritarian countries. The streets of Ulaanbaatar, home to almost half of Mongolia’s population, were adorned with colorful campaign posters featuring candidates across the political spectrum, including populist businessmen, nationalists, environmentalists, and socialists, a rarity in the region. The Prime Minister upheld democracy, thanking even those who did not vote for his party. He remarked that for the first time, five to six parties had been elected to parliament, marking a “New page” in Mongolian democracy. He added, “The essence of democracy lies in having diverse and contrasting opinions. Your criticisms will influence our actions”.