Tag: Pakistan

  • Will Balochistan Secede from Pakistan?

    Will Balochistan Secede from Pakistan?

    Independent Balochistan, a demand for ethnic statehood, dates back decades. It is quite similar to the demand for Kurdistan, an ethnic state for Kurds, by seceding Kurdish-majority regions from different countries. In the case of Balochistan, the land of the Baloch tribes, they seek to form a new state by seceding Baloch-dominated territories in Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. Although the demand for statehood is significant across Baloch territories in these countries, the demand from Pakistan is more intense, as they have acted more forcefully against it than others. This has led to full-scale conflicts between the Pakistani army and Baloch militants in 1948, 1958–59, 1962–63, and 1973–1977, with a new ongoing insurgency at varying levels since 2003.

    Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

    Although the Baloch are now Sunni Muslims, they have historically opposed the creation of Pakistan, and some even opposed the partition of India. In response, Pakistan has consistently treated the Baloch harshly. It is clear that Pakistan will never agree to secede its largest province, which is roughly the size of France and one of the largest provinces by area within any country. However, despite Balochistan being rich in natural resources such as gold, diamonds, silver, and copper, it is sparsely populated, economically underdeveloped, and one of the poorest regions in Pakistan.

    Pakistan has attempted several measures to assimilate Balochistan with the rest of the country, such as promoting the national language Urdu while suppressing native languages like Balochi and Brahui, and arresting local leaders by branding statehood advocates as terrorists and Indian supporters. Additionally, Pakistan has encouraged migration to Balochistan to alter the demographics, but the people have resisted, with Baloch organizations resorting to extreme measures like suicide bombings and targeted killings. This has allowed Pakistan to label Baloch organizations as terrorist groups.

    The region has always attracted the interest of Pakistani politicians due to its valuable mineral resources and strategic location. When China initiated the Gwadar port project in Balochistan – a natural deep-sea port at the mouth of a critical trade route – Pakistani politicians tried to use the situation to benefit from the migration of workers from the rest of Pakistan. However, this move was met with significant opposition. As Pakistan’s political and economic situation worsens day by day, the secessionist movement in Balochistan is rising to an unprecedented level.

    The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), an ethno-nationalist militant group operating out of Afghanistan, regularly targets the Pakistan Armed Forces, civilians, and foreign nationals. Recognized as a terrorist organization in multiple countries, the BLA recently launched Operation Herof, striking Pakistani army checkpoints and camps along key highways in Balochistan. This operation reportedly claimed the lives of nearly 102 people, including civilians, and led to the capture of significant parts of the Bela army camp. The BLA has also set up checkpoints across the province to ambush military convoys, indicating a broader effort to achieve secession from Pakistan.

    The BLA claimed that over 40 soldiers were killed in the attack on the main army camp in Bela. According to the group, its Fidayeen unit maintained control over a substantial portion of the camp for six hours as part of Operation Herof, with the Majeed Brigade spearheading the assault on the occupying forces in Bela, resulting in the deaths of more than 40 military personnel.

    Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the violence, asserting that the separatists aim to disrupt China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development projects, which seek to expand Beijing’s influence in Pakistan and across Central and South Asia. This is viewed as a counter to the influence of the United States and India in the region. Sharif vowed retaliation, noting that the violence coincided with a visit from a top Chinese general to Islamabad.

    Pakistan will definitely retaliate, as it has a history of doing so. According to Amnesty International, over 10,000 Baloch have disappeared in Pakistan since 2011. This challenge presents opportunities for both the Pakistani army and the government. The Pakistani army, which holds control over the state, will likely use the situation to act more aggressively in Balochistan, gaining control over more areas and justifying actions in other problematic regions. The Pakistani government, which is not well-liked due to issues like banning opposition, corruption, nepotism, and poor governance, sees this as an opportunity to strengthen its grip on the state.

    There was opposition to the government over Chinese-run projects that have led to significant debt for Pakistan and offered little benefit to local communities. Now, the government has a reason to suppress this dissent and push its anti-India agenda, which could unify the nation and seek warmer relations with Iran and Afghanistan – both of which are also dealing with secessionist movements from their Baloch populations.

    How Pakistan handles this situation will be crucial in determining the country’s future. Pakistan already faces significant challenges in its northwestern territories, and if it fails in Balochistan, India will most likely intervene, leading to the loss of occupied Kashmir. Furthermore, Pakistan could face mass protests in Sindh and Punjab that could weaken the union’s control, similar to what happened in former East Pakistan, now Bangladesh. Therefore, the management of the Balochistan issue will play a key role in shaping the future of the world’s first Islamic republic.

  • How Long Can Pakistan Remain a Republic?

    How Long Can Pakistan Remain a Republic?

    Pakistan, a state formed by the division of British India in response to the long-standing demands of Islamists in the Indian subcontinent, has always been a battleground between conservative Muslims and British-educated Muslims. From the country’s inception in 1947, leaders like Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who strongly advocated for Pakistan and led the movement for its creation in British India, envisioned a modern state that included Sunni and Shia Muslims, as well as Ahmadiyya, who are considered outcasts of Islam, and Dalits, the outcasts of India. However, there was strong opposition from conservatives who demanded an Islamic state based on Sharia law, which excludes rights for anyone outside Sunni Islam.

    Pakistan has never fully resolved these internal conflicts, which have even called its foundation into question. The 1956 constitution reflected these disputes by blending British modern values with Islamic principles, declaring Pakistan the world’s first “Islamic Republic.” Initially, British-supported and British-educated individuals dominated the administration, maintaining a relatively peaceful period in the country. Since the 1970s, the situation has changed dramatically. Corruption among leaders, the influx of Middle Eastern funds promoting a strict form of Islam, the Islamic Revolution in Iran that rejected modernism, the rise of the Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, and the resurgence of Hindu nationalism in India have all fueled support for Islamist factions in Pakistan. Political parties that once championed coexistence have moved towards more radical stances. Combined with worsening living conditions in a failing state, these factors have contributed to the rise of terrorism. Pakistan, which sheltered Osama bin Laden and conducted terrorist operations in several countries, eventually became one of the hotspots of Islamic terrorism, making life increasingly difficult for seculars and liberals.

    Now, Islamist factions, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamist political parties like Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by Imran Khan, are more influential in the country than conventional ones, reflecting the changing mood in the state. This shift is evident in the transformation of the country’s most popular leader, Imran Khan, once the stylish captain of Pakistan’s national cricket team, who was married to a liberal British woman and has now become one of the country’s most prominent Islamic preachers. He established an Islamist party and married a wife who wears a burqa – a change visible throughout the state.

    Pakistan, once considered a potential competitor with India in science and technology with strong support from the UK, the US, and Saudi Arabia—all of whom sought to elevate Pakistan as a rival to India – now appears to be deteriorating into a more extremist Islamic state, resembling Afghanistan. However, this does not satisfy the Islamists, who demand further Islamization of the administration. Attacks on British-influenced or modern-valued administrative systems and institutions have increased under the banner of anti-colonialism. In addition to frequent terrorist attacks and bomb blasts targeting opposition groups, attacks on police stations and courts – key remnants of the British-introduced system – have become increasingly common. In the border regions near Afghanistan and Iran, where the TTP (commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban) is strong, there was a record surge in violence last year. According to Al Jazeera, Pakistan’s two border provinces have seen a 93 percent rise in attacks since the TTP ended its ceasefire in 2022. Most recently, a video trending on X shows Islamic clerics attempting to invade the Supreme Court to attack the Chief Justice, whom they accuse of supporting minorities. It is clear that, after politics, the judiciary and the law have become the latest targets of the Islamists. Even though the Islamic Republic of Pakistan already has biased Islamic codes that make life miserable for minorities, the Islamists demand the introduction of complete Sharia law, which would undermine human rights and modern values.

    The question is how long Pakistan can continue with the current constitution and Islamic Republic status, which includes many British and modern values, as extremism and radicalism rise. It is noted that people do not have much belief in the current administration system, which imposes tough living conditions. There is also little expectation of change in the administration style, as politicians are seen as embezzling money to the UK, and the country is heavily in debt to China. This creates a perfect environment for radicalism to grow. With the situation in Iran, Afghanistan, or Bangladesh not far from Pakistan, a revolution is also possible here. However, the result is unlikely to be a modern government like in many Muslim countries; it may be a more Islamic government, potentially worse than Afghanistan, as Pakistanis may feel the need to prove they are more authentic Muslims than the Arabs.

  • What Hamas Has Done to the Palestinians

    What Hamas Has Done to the Palestinians

    Gaza, the tiny piece of land on the Mediterranean coast densely populated with around 20 million people, is suffering greatly from the wrath of Israel. In the name of the promised state of Palestine or in an effort to maintain Muslim solidarity worldwide, the people – mainly Sunni Muslims – are enduring immense hardships. The death toll has risen to nearly 40,000 according to Hamas health authorities, while Israel reports around 1,000 deaths, including women and children. Injuries are expected to surpass 100,000. However, a truce remains elusive as neither Israel nor Hamas, the rulers of Gaza, are willing to settle. As Hamas, an organization that aims to uphold Islamic values and wage holy war against Israel, refuses to move toward peace by releasing hostages, civilians in Gaza are being harshly punished. Hamas is, in fact, punishing the Gazan people for choosing them, all in the name of God.

    Israel is now relentlessly destroying Gaza to punish Hamas, along with those who support them, and to dismantle all infrastructure intended for attacks on Israel. After the brutal October 7th attack on Israel, the country is no longer willing to gamble with its people’s lives. Consequently, Israel’s assault on Gaza is leading to what may be one of the worst war crimes in modern history. Hamas, committed to the removal of Israel and the Islamization of the region, initiated the brutal attack after a long pause during the Jewish holiday, showing no mercy to civilians.

    Now, they blame Israel, refuse to release hostages, and perpetuate suffering for their perceived heavenly reward. Israel, particularly under Netanyahu’s leadership, is using the situation very strategically. The attack by Hamas is now being used by Israel on a global scale to undermine the Palestinian cause, which is a dream for Muslims worldwide. It appears that Hamas has destroyed those dreams.

    The Islamic Resistance Movement, known by its Arabic acronym Hamas, has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007. The movement was founded in 1987 by quadriplegic Palestinian imam and activist Ahmed Yassin and has been associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. In the 2006 Palestinian legislative election, Hamas secured a majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council by campaigning on promises of a corruption-free government and advocating for resistance as a means to liberate Palestine from Israeli occupation. However, the Islamist organization, which does not recognize the existence of Israel, was seen as a significant threat to Israel. This tension culminated in the Battle of Gaza in 2007, after which Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip from the rival moderate Palestinian faction Fatah. Since then, Hamas has governed the territory independently of the Palestinian National Authority.

    Following Hamas’s takeover, Israel significantly intensified existing movement restrictions and imposed a complete blockade on the Gaza Strip, with Egypt also enforcing a blockade starting in 2007. Hamas has conducted attacks against Israeli civilians, including suicide bombings and rocket launches targeting Israeli cities. As a result of these militant activities and attacks on civilian targets, several countries – including Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States – have designated Hamas as a terrorist organization. Although Hamas has exploited the harsh conditions in Gaza caused by the blockade to fuel hatred among the youth, this situation has inadvertently benefited Israel, allowing them to brand Palestinians as terrorists and weaken Arab countries efforts to gain recognition for Palestine.

    The October 7th attack will be remembered as one of Hamas’s biggest blunders. At the time, Israel was deeply fractured by internal politics, with citizens protesting against the government. However, the Hamas attack unexpectedly united the Israeli people and strengthened their support for the government. Hamas may have believed that the weakened Israeli government would collapse under the assault, that taking hostages would soften Israel’s response, and that they could eventually negotiate peace through Qatari mediation, allowing Hamas to continue ruling Gaza and secure more funding from the Islamic world.

    However, Netanyahu, a shrewd leader, saw this as an opportunity to unite the nation and solidify his grip on power. Now, Israel no longer feels the need to compromise with Hamas or the Palestinians, as they have a clear justification for their actions.

    Life in Gaza is unbearable, with all boundaries of human suffering crossed. Even before the 2021 Israel-Palestine crisis, Gaza faced 48% unemployment, and half of its population lived in poverty. However, with the renewed Israel-Hamas conflict, life has become even more miserable. Death, injuries, and destruction have become daily occurrences, with businesses shutting down and access to basic necessities like food and water severely limited. As Hamas continues its battle with Israel, the United States and other countries have been limited in their ability to intervene, while Arab countries, which once celebrated Gaza as a symbol of Islamic resistance, are also not addressing the crisis. The people of Gaza seem abandoned, allowed by extremists to become martyrs for heaven. When we examine Hamas’s contribution to Palestine, it’s clear that they have made the lives of Gazans more miserable and have led to the collapse of the Palestinian cause.

  • How Foreign Influence Shapes Bangladesh?

    How Foreign Influence Shapes Bangladesh?

    Even though Bangladesh claims a constructed identity of Islamic Bangla, it is actually a product of conflict between the region’s superpowers, India and Pakistan. This former part of Pakistan became an independent state in 1971 with the intervention of India. The conflict nearly escalated into a world war, as Pakistan received strong support from the United States, while the Soviet Union aligned with India. Even after independence, Bangladesh has remained entangled in power politics, with foreign powers interfering and causing various political incidents, including assassinations, coups, and student protests. Political analysts point to this foreign interference as a cause of the recent wave of protests that led to the toppling of the government. Why is Bangladesh subject to such interference, and who is making it prone to unrest?

    Bangladesh, a small and densely populated country, has highly congested living conditions. A spark can lead to mass unrest that can affect the administration in Dhaka. This is why Bangladesh is often in turmoil, with mass mob actions being common, making it susceptible to foreign interference. India’s and Pakistan’s involvement in Bangladesh stems from their mutual fears. India is particularly concerned that any instability in Bangladesh could destabilize its eastern regions. Since Bangladesh shares the majority of its border with India, any conflict within Bangladesh could result in a significant influx of refugees into India, posing substantial political and economic challenges. Many districts in India have become Muslim-majority due to this influx, leading to cultural tensions as Hindus and tribal communities feel outnumbered. Many immigrants to India are reportedly attracted to Islamist organizations and become radicalized. Consequently, India has consistently supported Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party to stabilize the country and its borders and promote cultural ties. Through this alliance, India has emphasized a Bangla identity over an Islamist identity, enhancing cultural exchange between Bangladesh and the Indian state of Bengal.

    Pakistan, which lost the war with India and was forced to grant independence to Bangladesh, has never given up on the country. They have attempted to disrupt Bangladesh’s growing ties with India by supporting the anti-Indian Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its leader, Khaleda Zia. While India has promoted a Bangla identity, Pakistan has pushed for an Islamic identity and anti-Indian propaganda. Pakistan also supported Jamaat-e-Islami, an organization advocating for the Islamization of the Indian subcontinent, which has worked to promote Islamic values in Bangladesh. Many accuse the recent riots that led to Sheikh Hasina’s ousting of being influenced by Pakistan-supported Islamic factions. Indian media have reported on these accusations and are investigating whether the riots involved persecution of minorities in Bangladesh.

    India and Pakistan are not the only interested parties in Bangladesh. The United States and the UK, which did not support Bangladesh’s independence and even opposed India for backing it, are also implicated according to some political analysts. Sheikh Hasina has consistently blocked U.S. attempts to acquire St. Martin’s Island, which was reportedly part of a U.S. plan to establish a military base and boost its military dominance in the region. Some believe that the United Kingdom has plans to create a Christian nation in the Indian subcontinent while forming a Muslim nation elsewhere, and sees an opportunity in Bangladesh. Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have supported Islamist factions in Bangladesh, have helped to bolster the Islamic identity of the country. China, which seeks to reduce India’s dominance in the Bay of Bengal, also disapproves of Hasina’s alignment with India and has therefore been accused of intervening in Bangladesh as well.

    Bangladesh is currently in a transitional phase, and foreign countries are closely watching the situation. Despite previous authoritarian tendencies during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh has recorded growth and emerged from India’s shadow. It will be interesting to see what Bangladesh will be like after Hasina. The country is now under an interim government led by Younus, who has the support of the West. The upcoming election will be a battleground for various parties with different agendas and foreign influences. If Bangladesh cannot form a strong government, foreign interference will likely continue.

  • What Caused So Much Anti-India Sentiment in the Indian Subcontinent?

    What Caused So Much Anti-India Sentiment in the Indian Subcontinent?

    Bollywood and Indian policymakers dominated the Indian subcontinent until the last decade. The Indian subcontinent, including Islamic countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan, maintained a good relationship with India. Countries like the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan acted more like India’s satellites. They developed and evolved using India as a model, and India was generous to its neighbors, offering assistance in areas from education, health, to the satellite services. This collaboration led to the formation of SAARC, which was one of the most effective regional bodies.

    The people of these countries shared a strong cultural bond, enjoying the same movies, music, and cricket and admiring stars from each other’s nations. Despite nationalism, there was a sense of fondness and unity. However, in 2024, the scenario has changed dramatically. The union and sentiments that once bound them together are no longer present. Politicians, people, and even artists are expressing hostility toward each other, with social media filled with hate comments. Anti-India factions are ruling in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Maldives, and have gained strength in Sri Lanka and Nepal. Recently, a violent riot in Bangladesh toppled an India-supported government, revealing a clear rise in anti-India sentiment. Now, it seems only Bhutan remains allied with India in the subcontinent. What caused such a split between these countries that once seemed as close as in a Bollywood drama?

    India, as the largest secular democratic republic, was a role model for its fellow South Asian states. Even when they had disputes with India, they admired it. While some Islamist countries and the United States, which was opposed to Russia, propagated against India, people in these countries were fond of India, its secularism, and its culture. Indian Bollywood movies facilitated this cultural exchange significantly. Bollywood films, with their family values and cultural closeness, attracted large audiences in these countries, creating hardcore fans who cherished Bombay dreams. Bollywood produced content that appealed to these audiences and included more artists from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other countries, resulting in significant box office collections for Bollywood movies in these regions. At one point, despite border tensions, Pakistan was one of the largest contributors to Bollywood’s box office revenue.

    Cricket was also a unifying factor, as India provided facilities to promote the sport in these countries. Indian cricket and hockey stars were admired across the region. A similar cultural exchange occurred in reverse, with Pakistani musicians and Sri Lankan cricketers becoming big stars in India. Together, they formed a friendly alliance. The wars at the borders and foreign interests did not disturb this friendly environment.

    But things began to change over the last decade, specifically after Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), came to power in 2014. The rise of the Hindu nationalist party caused widespread concern in Islamic countries, leading them to question India’s secular image among their own people. Comments from BJP leaders were widely circulated, giving more spotlight to Islamic factions in countries like Pakistan, the Maldives, and Bangladesh. The public in these countries slowly began to fall out of love with India. Economic downturns in these countries were also redirected into India-hatred by local politicians, who blamed India for various problems. Jealousy played a role as well; in the past, everyone seemed to grow together, but now only India was progressing, leading to the perception that India didn’t care about them and was taking away their opportunities and overshadowing them on the global stage.

    The decline of Bollywood also contributed to this cultural divide. As Bollywood started producing more propaganda-based movies instead of the traditional romantic dramas, the films lost their connection with markets in Pakistan and other regions. Meanwhile, the youth, especially Gen Z, began exploring Hollywood and Korean movies instead of Indian content, further weakening cultural ties.

    But political analysts point to another important factor: the influence of social media on a predominantly young population. As social media spaces are heavily utilized by propagandists, minor incidents in distant places, which mainstream media usually neglect, have started to be highlighted and shape the national mood. This has further strained the already deteriorating connections between people and policymakers. Additionally, outsiders with vested interests have begun to exploit the situation. The United States and the United Kingdom have been culturally disseminating anti-India narratives in the surrounding countries, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar are advancing Islamic interests. Meanwhile, China has heavily invested in the region through infrastructure projects that small-income countries cannot afford to repay, pulling them out of India’s sphere of influence. Anti-Indian groups in these nations are taking advantage of this situation by fostering a new and distinct identity that previously did not exist.

    As a result, India is becoming increasingly isolated in the region, posing significant economic and military risks. With satellite countries bound by Chinese debts, they cannot refuse the influx of Chinese products, causing substantial losses for Indian businesses. Furthermore, infrastructure projects in strategic locations around India provide a military advantage for China. It appears that China is now the dominant player in the region with its partners, putting India in a difficult position.

  • How Imran Khan’s Possible Comeback Will Affect Pakistani Politics

    How Imran Khan’s Possible Comeback Will Affect Pakistani Politics

    The military-driven politics of Pakistan is in crisis again, with the possible return of former Prime Minister and Islamist populist leader Imran Khan and his political party to the mainstream. Major cases against Imran Khan, which blocked him from contesting in the last general election, have been suspended, including a conviction for illegal marriage that carried a seven-year sentence, a serious crime in the Islamic Republic. This conviction was overturned by a court in Islamabad on Saturday. This development raises fears that Imran Khan will actively return to politics to lead his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party against the will of the notorious military, conventional political parties, and executives.

    In the highly rigged last general election, the authorities did everything to prevent Imran Khan and his party from climbing to power. Although Imran Khan remains the most popular figure in the country, he and his party were banned, and all candidates contested independently. Nevertheless, PTI independents, who didn’t even have a common election symbol as they were banned from contesting collectively, won 118 seats out of 336. Removing the cricket bat symbol, which connects people with former cricket champion Imran Khan, was seen as preventing voters from recognizing the party on ballot papers, a crucial factor considering 40 percent of the population is illiterate.

    Although the number obtained by PTI independents falls far below the 169 seats needed for a majority, considering the attempts by the authorities to suppress the party, this was a significant achievement. Despite strong support from the authorities, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) only garnered fewer than 100 seats. Even though these independents secured a majority, their party was not recognized. The other parties joined to form a government under the direction of the military. The absence of Imran Khan facilitated this, but his return will likely end the dominance of the ruling alliance. His well-known ability to mobilize his supporters will likely cause more turmoil in a country already suffering from economic crises, terrorism, and poor governance.

    Pakistan’s government is not ready to give up and is seeking more ways to keep Imran Khan out of politics and stop the resurrection of PTI. In the last week, a Supreme Court ruling made the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) authorized again, and they became the largest party in the country’s parliament. The Supreme Court ruled last week that PTI was a political party and eligible for 20 further seats in a post-election dispute that arose from its candidates running as independents. The ruling handed PTI members seats reserved for women and minorities, which will increase the power of PTI in parliament.

    In response, the Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, said the government would go to court to press for treason charges against Khan, adding that there are many charges that can be brought against Imran Khan. The Pakistani judiciary is notorious for such charges. Tarar said the move to ban PTI was because Khan’s supporters had targeted military installations during violence after his earlier arrest on corruption charges in May last year and over allegations of foreign funding.

    The last election made it clear that Imran Khan and the PTI are the people’s choice. However, what if the people’s choice leads to suffering for the country and the region? Islamist populist leader Imran Khan can be considered a threat to the future of the country. He has chosen China over their conventional ally, the US, which poses a significant risk for both the country and the region, especially since Pakistan holds nuclear weapons, which can lead to more conflicts.

    Although questioning how dangerous Imran Khan is may be secondary, it is clear that the government’s actions against him are unethical and not supported by the constitution of the Islamic Republic. The government’s movements clearly indicate a shift towards a soft martial law. And PTI has faced a severe crackdown since last year. Its leaders were harassed and arrested in the run-up to the general election, and the military forced Khan’s close aides to leave the party.

    The actions of the Pakistani government are a significant blow to democratic norms, especially given that the Supreme Court has unanimously ruled that PTI is a legitimate political party. Imran Khan, who has been saved by the court on many occasions, may get arrested again, but this will lead to more division in Pakistani politics and probably more anarchy and violence.

  • Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    NATO, one of the most successful international military collaborations, has helped Europe and the United States defend against communism and the Soviet Union, maintaining a stalemate in Europe and avoiding a possible third world war. Its importance in bringing peace to Europe is undeniable, even though the left and anti-war groups may disagree. While the Soviet Union ended, the might of Russia has kept NATO alive. However, Russia has proven not to be a significant threat to NATO, and the United States now sees the primary threat coming from Asia. The continent is on a journey back to prominence, with Communist China, the world’s second-biggest economy, along with its communist allies and Russia, deciding to challenge the United States and its influence. The United States recognizes these risks and is shifting its focus from the Atlantic to East Asia, strengthening military relationships with Asian countries. 

    The bilateral military relationships that the United States maintains with countries in the region are slowly evolving into regional ones. Although no official multilateral military organization like NATO has been created, political scientists believe such a coalition is already in effect in East Asia. North Korea, a communist ally of China, has no doubts about this development. North Korean state media have connected it to a recent joint military exercise by South Korea, Japan, and the US, claiming that these drills demonstrate that the relationship among the three countries has evolved into “The Asian version of NATO”.

    The three countries recently launched large-scale joint military drills near China, called “Freedom Edge”, involving navy destroyers, fighter jets, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. These exercises aim to enhance defenses against missiles, submarines, and air attacks. Conceived at the three-way summit at Camp David last year, the exercise is designed to strengthen military cooperation amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula due to North Korea’s weapons testing and increasing military ties among Russia, North Korea, and China. Thus, the joint exercise’s mission extends beyond North Korea to include China and Russia.

    North Korea’s foreign ministry declared that Pyongyang would not overlook the strengthening of a US-led military bloc and would safeguard regional peace with an aggressive and overwhelming response, according to the KCNA news agency, on Sunday. It is certain that the Chinese government will take note of this development, especially given the increasing number of joint military exercises in the water near China and the disputed South China Sea, which China considers crucial.

    According to political analysts, beyond merely connecting allied countries in the region to NATO, the US has cultivated a group of nations capable of forming an inter-military collaboration in Asia similar to NATO. The United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and Singapore all fall under US military security in the region, effectively countering China’s influence. For more effective cooperation, a NATO-like body with a secretariat and other administrative structures could be established by the US soon. However, cost remains a significant issue, as there is already criticism from US citizens regarding US spending on NATO, while other member countries contribute less. It is clear that if the Soviet Union was the primary threat last century, China is seen as the primary threat to the United States in this century. Taming China will likely be a priority for the US despite spending issues in the coming decades.

    So, it’s not only North Korea’s comments; the United States is likely to move in this direction to prevent potential aggression from China and North Korea in the region. The rapid movements from the US side, including numerous diplomatic talks, military exercises, and weapons trade agreements, all indicate this. Given the failure of SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization), a US initiative modeled after NATO in Asia, due to disagreements among members, adding new members will likely involve close scrutiny and consideration of their importance.

    It will be interesting to see how this process progresses, especially since Chinese investments are significant in Asian countries, and the United States is expected to engage with them. Many Asian countries, which lean toward authoritarianism, may not prefer to align with the US if it means cutting ties with the Russia-China alliance. Only if an aggressive China emerges will a NATO-level multinational inter-military collaboration spanning vast regions be smoothly established.

  • Why Pakistanis Were Targeted In Kyrgyzstan

    Why Pakistanis Were Targeted In Kyrgyzstan

    Former Soviet Union republics are well-known destinations for South Asia’s medical education aspirants. Students from South Asian countries fly in large numbers to Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan to pursue medical degrees at a cheaper rate and with better quality than in their home countries. The governments in the former Soviet Union countries promote this because these students provide a significant amount of money to their economy. However, although South Asian countries value and respect doctors educated in former Soviet states, the poor living conditions and overpopulation lead many of these doctors to seek opportunities in other countries or to stay in the countries where they graduated. While Indian students, who are comparatively better off financially, often move to other countries, most Pakistanis prefer to stay. As a predominantly Muslim former central state, Kyrgyzstan, is a popular destination for Pakistani students, who are there in significant numbers. Although, the Kyrgyz people, struggling with economic difficulties and a lack of jobs, are not happy with this situation.

    Long-simmering xenophobia in Kyrgyzstan erupted in a violent clash between Kyrgyz youth and Pakistani students. The harmful fight left dozens injured and prompted hundreds of Pakistani students to flee from the country. According to a statement issued by the Kyrgyzstan Ministry of Internal Affairs, the issue began on the night of May 12, when a comparatively minor incident on the street led to the mishappenings. Following the issues on the street, four Kyrgyz youths allegedly pursued the Pakistani nationals into their dormitory and proceeded to cause mayhem. According to reports, the four Kyrgyz youths who entered the dorm stole an estimated $2,800 in cash as well as personal property of the residents. The Pakistani version of events claims the issue ensued when the Kyrgyz youths allegedly began harassing female dorm residents, which developed into a violent clash between the Kyrgyz youth group and Pakistani students. Kyrgyz individuals too injured in the fight, a videos went viral through social media, it sparked outrage among some Kyrgyz people who consider the May 12 incident as a “Humiliation for their Nation”. At the elevation of Rage, One week later, on the night of May 17, a mob of about 700 people approached the same dormitory, demanding justice. They proceeded to attack any foreign student they could find, instilling significant fear in the foreign population.

    Kyrgyz authorities are trying to defuse tension that could severely impact their foreign relations and reassure the foreign students who contribute significantly to the economy. Kyrgyzstan, in a poor economic condition since the collapse of the Soviet Union, is actively seeking investments to exploit its valuable minerals and needs foreign collaboration to improve its economic situation. They are engaging in discussions with representatives from China, the United States, India to attract more investments. Despite Pakistan’s economic challenges, its middle-class population can help support Kyrgyzstan’s educational institutions. However, the targeting of Pakistani students, who have been reported in criminal activities in other countries they migrate to, is a significant blow to Kyrgyzstan and could further damage the country’s image and deter potential investors. Understanding the gravity of the situation, the deputy head of the Kyrgyz Cabinet, Edil Baisalov, visited the dormitory on May 19, offering an apology and extending a security guarantee. “Your parents and relatives should know that there is no threat to you in Kyrgyzstan, and that authorities bear full responsibility for your well-being. The events of one night do not reflect the attitude of our people towards you”, Baisalov assured the students and teachers present.

    The problem escalated to the diplomatic level as well. When the media, especially social media, spread attack visuals and student comments rapidly, it filled their home countries with fear. The day after the attack, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif expressed concern on Twitter about “The situation of Pakistani students in Bishkek” and directed the country’s ambassador to assist the victims. Pakistani authorities also organized charter flights to bring home any student who felt unsafe continuing their studies in Bishkek. Over 20000 Pakistani students in Kyrgyzstan had opted to return home. Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Japarov announced that Pakistani students injured in the melee would not have to pay for medical care. He also blamed unnamed opposition forces for stoking the xenophobic outburst and vowed that any repetition of such violence would be swiftly crushed. However, it seems that more xenophobic incidents have been reported, targeting Indian and other foreign nationals as well.

    There are reports that resentment is building among Kyrgyz people over the perception that foreigners, especially from South Asia, are displacing Kyrgyz workers in some sectors of the economy. While Kyrgyzstan is a major source of labor migrants working in Russia, the Persian Gulf, and elsewhere abroad, the Central Asian nation is also attracting labor migrants to fill some of the most menial jobs. Lack of jobs and prosperity often leads to hatred and xenophobia toward foreigners in many countries, and it is the same underlying reason for the violence in Kyrgyzstan. Pakistani students have become scapegoats for this violence, which is essentially an outburst of frustration from people leading difficult lives.

  • Why Is The Pakistan-Afghanistan Relationship In Crisis?

    Why Is The Pakistan-Afghanistan Relationship In Crisis?

    Pakistan, a country troubled with borders, is facing a deep existential crisis. The multi-ethnic, multilingual nation continues to exist due to its strong adherence to Islamism and animosity towards India. However, the state has already faltered due to poor governance, recurrent military rule, escalating separatist movements, and rampant terrorist activities. Challenges also emanate from neighboring countries. India, the primary adversary, is increasingly assertive in its demand for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Additionally, relations with Iran have soured over Balochistan, while territorial disputes strain ties with Afghanistan. Afghanistan has never acknowledged the Durand Line, the border line between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which traverses the heartland of the Pashtun. Nevertheless, the relationship with Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Islamic brother, is crucial for Pakistan due to unique geographical challenges and the potential threat posed by India. But as like the twists in Bollywood movies Afghanistan is now the biggest concern of Pakistan.

    Pakistan, once accused of nurturing terrorism, reaped benefits from it. Serious blasts in Indian economic centers and Jammu Kashmir served to stun India, portraying it as lacking security in international media. Terrorism also served strategic purposes in Iran and Afghanistan. The Taliban, current rulers of Afghanistan, emerged from Pakistan’s terrorist nurturing programs. However, terrorism eventually turned against itself as terrorist organizations aimed at Islamizing the Indian subcontinent began to target Pakistan primarily. These groups, like the Pakistan Taliban, began attacking officials, tourists, and mostly Chinese foreign workers, earning Pakistan the label of a serious terrorist state. And severely worsened the economy of Pakistan. Accusations against Afghanistan grew as they seemingly adopted strategies of Pakistan used against India to now target Pakistan.

    Recently, Pakistan’s military revealed that a suicide bombing in March, which killed five Chinese engineers and a Pakistani driver, was orchestrated from neighboring Afghanistan by an Afghan citizen. Four suspects linked to the attack were apprehended. This is only one incident that grabs headlines of newspapers, due to the deaths of Chinese nationals, but there are a lot of similar incidents reported. The Pakistani Taliban, with sanctuaries in Afghanistan, intensified attacks within Pakistan since January, resulting in the deaths of 62 security forces. Evidence strongly implicates their involvement in the escalating violence. Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, witnessed numerous militant attacks in recent years, including a recent suicide blast targeting a van carrying five Japanese workers. The Pakistani Taliban, although distinct from but closely aligned with the Afghan Taliban, bore responsibility for such attacks. Consequently, animosity toward Afghans in Pakistan has surged. Nearly 563,639 Afghan migrants returned to Afghanistan following Islamabad’s crackdown on illegal migration, drawing criticism from international and domestic human rights groups.

    Pakistan and Afghanistan, as part of the Indian kingdoms, historically maintained a good relationship. There was a time when discussions leaned toward uniting Pakistan and Afghanistan to form a strong Islamic country in the Indian subcontinent. Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, a seasoned diplomat who held the position of Pakistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, recalled significant efforts made at the governmental level to establish an Pakistan-Afghanistan Confederation. According to Kasuri, the United States also endorsed this concept. President Zia-ul-Haq expanded on the notion of a Pakistan-Afghanistan Confederation, envisioning unrestricted movement for both Pakistanis and Afghans without the need for passports.. General Akhtar Abdur Rahman, considered Zia’s right-hand man and the Director-General of the ISI, himself a Pashtun, shared Zia’s vision of a post-Soviet “Islamic Confederation” comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kashmir, and even the states of Soviet Central Asia. Despite its abandonment, Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan remained warm. The Taliban received significant financial and logistical support from Pakistan, facilitated by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, which provided funding, training, and weaponry. After the Taliban’s removal in 2001, many found refuge in Pakistan. However, following the Taliban’s return to Afghanistan in 2021, the situation changed drastically. There is now a considerable amount of anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan, while negative feelings toward Afghan refugees are widespread in Pakistan. Issues such as calls for Pashtun land in Pakistan, the refugee crisis, and terrorism have strained the relationship to its lowest point.

    Foreign relationships are essential in modern times, as they create more opportunities for every state. Building relationships with neighbors is particularly crucial. However, Pakistan currently lacks both. Its relationship with Afghanistan is in a volatile state, and any further developments will likely exacerbate the situation. Both the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, though they are Islamic, their views, directions, and agendas differ. Pakistan’s new government favors the military and the West but does not support Islamic extremism like the Taliban’s Afghanistan. The Taliban government, on the other hand, will strive to benefit from Pashtun support by claiming Pashtun areas. Consequently, the Western-oriented Pakistani government may soon clash with the Taliban government, and as a result, the chances of improving relationships are diminishing.

  • Pakistan’s Terrorism Dilemma: Chinese Engineers Getting Increasingly Targeted

    Pakistan’s Terrorism Dilemma: Chinese Engineers Getting Increasingly Targeted

    Pakistan faces a series of ongoing challenges, encompassing political instability, a dearth of employment opportunities, sluggish economic progress, insufficient infrastructural development, and a variety of other pressing concerns. Yet, among these, the paramount issue demanding immediate action is terrorism. Formerly perceived as assets in regional conflicts with Afghanistan and India, terrorists have now transformed into a substantial liability. The nation’s aspirations for tranquility are consistently shattered as terrorist attacks become increasingly commonplace.

    As terrorists increasingly target Chinese nationals working on infrastructure, concerns are growing. China is a major investor and actively participates in infrastructure projects of a magnitude that may help Pakistan recover from its disastrous economic collapse. 

    In the latest incident, a suicide bomber killed six people by driving a vehicle into a convoy of Chinese engineers working on a dam project in north-west Pakistan. Chinese engineers have been actively involved in various projects across Pakistan, supported by Beijing’s investment of over $65 billion in infrastructure development as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key component of China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative. The attack occurred in a Pashtun-majority area close to Afghanistan, known to harbor numerous extremist terrorist organizations operating both within and beyond Pakistan’s borders. This marks the third significant assault on Chinese interests within the country in just one week. The engineers were traveling from Islamabad to their camp at the dam construction site in Dasu, located in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, according to Mohammad Ali Gandapur, the regional police chief. “Five Chinese nationals and their Pakistani driver were among those killed in the attack,”.

    Prior to this incident, two other attacks occurred within the same week. The initial two assaults targeted a Pakistani naval air base and a strategic port utilized by China in the south-western province of Balochistan. This region is witnessing a significant separatist movement advocating for an independent Balochistan, while Beijing continues to invest billions in infrastructure projects there. ethnic militants aiming to challenge Beijing’s presence in resource-rich Balochistan.

    Islamist groups predominantly operate in Pakistan’s north-west region, where the convoy came under attack. Upon the incident, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa police swiftly responded, initiating relief efforts. Dasu, the location of the attack, houses a significant dam project and has previously been targeted. In 2021, a bus explosion claimed 13 lives, including nine Chinese nationals. Neither Tuesday’s nor the 2021 attack has been claimed by any group. 

    The Chinese embassy in Pakistan has urged thorough investigations into the recent attack. In a statement, the embassy emphasized immediate action, calling on Pakistani authorities to conduct a comprehensive inquiry, mete out severe punishment to the perpetrators, and implement practical measures to safeguard the well-being of Chinese citizens. According to a source within the prime minister’s office, Shehbaz Sharif, the Prime Minister, is anticipated to visit Beijing next week, marking his first official visit since assuming office following the February elections.

    A statement from the Pakistani military labeled the three recent attacks as attempts to destabilize internal security, implicating “Foreign Elements” in facilitating such incidents within Pakistan. While Pakistan’s military traditionally points fingers at India, it is widely viewed as part of a conventional blame game lacking credible evidence.

    Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, condemned Tuesday’s attack and affirmed Pakistan’s commitment to combating militants. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry underscored the paramount importance of the life and safety of Chinese nationals within Pakistan. In a statement, it pledged ongoing collaboration with Chinese counterparts to ensure the safety and security of Chinese nationals, projects, and institutions in Pakistan.

    It stated that strategic projects and critical sites essential for Pakistan’s economic advancement are under threat in an attempt to undermine progress and create discord between Pakistan and its allies, notably China. Gwadar, Pakistan’s Indian Ocean port, strategically positioned along crucial Gulf shipping routes, is under Chinese management. Adjacent to it, the Siddique naval air base supports security and development efforts led by Beijing in Balochistan. If successfully executed, this endeavor promises significant benefits for both Pakistan and China. China gains access to a port, naval base, and potentially a full military unit near the strategically vital Persian Gulf, rich in oil and mineral reserves. This marks a significant expansion for China into the Indian Ocean, reducing reliance on the South China Sea amidst escalating tensions. Despite apprehensions, China remains committed to the project, recognizing its strategic value. For Pakistan, the project signifies infrastructure development beyond its current capabilities, potentially establishing authority over Balochistan. Both parties stand to benefit significantly, underscoring their determination to press ahead despite threats from terrorist groups.

    The ongoing terrorism threat not only poses a significant challenge to infrastructure projects but also jeopardizes Pakistan’s stability. The nation confronts dual insurgencies: one propelled by Islamist factions and the other by ethnic separatists. Islamist militants primarily target minorities and India, while separatist movements, deemed terrorist by the government and revolutionary by their followers, have history in former Bengal and persist in regions like Balochistan and the northwest. This threat is persistent and existential, fueled by mounting aspirations for independence in Balochistan, dreams of an Islamic emirate among Pashtuns in the northwest, enduring issues in Kashmir, and governance hurdles in populous areas such as Punjab and Sindh. These factors contribute to the escalating terrorism within the country, emphasizing the urgent need for Pakistan to take decisive action against terrorists to avoid further breakdown and economic prosperity.