Tag: Pakistan

What Will the New Government in Pakistan Mean for the Neighbors?

After the widely rigged recent national election, Pakistan is set to form a new government. Caretaker prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif is well-positioned to return to the prime minister’s office by the partnership developed between the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). They underscored having secured the requisite majority to establish a coalition government. The inaugural session of the National Assembly, expected at the end of February or in early March, is poised to witness the taking of Shehbaz Sharif as the new prime minister, representing the cohesive front of the PML-N. The inception of this new government is accompanied by a myriad of internal and external challenges. Anticipated public anger over mandate rigging may intensify and extend. The state is currently confronting economic challenges, with citizens contending with poverty and a deepening hunger crisis. In the midst of these hardships, public confidence in the system is diminishing.

Will this transition affect any change in Pakistan’s volatile relationship with neighbors? Sadly No. More than the Pakistan Government, Pakistan Military is crafting foreign policy. As some political experts said before, for every state there will be an army. But in the case of Pakistan, the army owns that state. Yes, the Pakistan Military is still a powerful authority in that country. And they need peace? Never!!

Whenever Pakistan grapples with internal obstacles, a recurrent pattern appears: a highly powerful military seizes power and pushes out any remaining democratic elements. The historical precedent of this occurred last time in 1999 when Pervez Musharraf orchestrated a military coup to overthrow the government led by Nawaz Sharif. This move was spurred by tensions with India, culminating in a war that Pakistan lost in the same year. Notably, this conflict, which was not necessarily desired by either the Pakistani or Indian government, was perceived as aligning with the preferences of the powerful Pakistan military.

The dominance of the Pakistan military is visible even it democratic governments, they drive Pakistan’s external affairs. The Pakistan army is considered as one of the fiercest, and they hold a large arsenal including nuclear weapons. So countries are often connecting with the Pakistan military instead of governments. The United States, intricately linked with the Pakistani army, has consistently endorsed the military’s expanding autonomy, often diverting authority from elected governments. Despite the state being officially an “Islamic republic,” the Pakistan Military’s proximity to both the USA and the UK suggests a closer alignment with Western interests. This alignment gains particular significance in light of the substantial debt owed to China. Faced with an overwhelming debt burden, Pakistan is compelled to open its markets and economy to China while simultaneously maintaining the military in alignment with U.S. interests. This dynamic played a role in Imran Khan’s removal from office as he leaned towards China over the U.S.

India, Pakistan’s largest neighbor, is viewed as a dangerous enemy. The existence of Pakistan and the people’s loyalty to the military often hinge on the animosity towards India. During periods of internal turmoil, conflicts with India are used to rally the nation. The Kashmir issue is still fuming. And India’s current leadership under Modi has a strong stance in the case of Kashmir and they continuously cite the annexation of Pak occupied Kashmir to their side of Kashmir. And Pakistan uses separatism, Muslim extremist in India, to counter the growth of India. And the Military need to continue their strategy that will lead to further tensions. And in any case Pakistan military wants to topple Sharif government, they will choose a conflict with India.

Iran, another neighbor of Pakistan who is ready to fight with the United States, engaged in air strikes within Pakistan’s borders last year. Although Pakistan retaliated, bringing an end to the immediate violence, the relationship remains strained. The longstanding issue of Balochistan, akin to the Kashmir problem with India, adds complexity. India and Iran appear to be close allies, making it imperative for the new government in Pakistan to prioritize peace with Iran while maintaining popular anti-India sentiments.

The historical connections between the Taliban’s emirate in Afghanistan are facing a decline. The Taliban maintains strong affiliations with Islamic groups in Pakistan, particularly within the ethnic Pashtun community. Recently, this association has evolved into a potential threat to Pakistan’s stability. Certain factions within Pakistan advocate for the autonomy of Pashtun-majority regions, urging immediate intervention from the Pakistani military. In the years ahead, this particular region of Pakistan is poised to become the most precarious. Given historical precedents, there is a likelihood that various militia groups may challenge Pakistan’s authority in the area, even if a Taliban-led Afghanistan refrains from overt opposition due to their official ties.

In Pakistan’s political arena, the military’s hegemony frequently obscures democracy. And this is the ongoing story. It’s clear, The Pakistan military operates as a distinct entity from the government and they shape foreign policies. Consequently, there is expected to be minimal change in Pakistan’s foreign policies in the coming years. Nonetheless, enduring geopolitical hurdles pose challenges in fostering constructive relationships with neighboring nations. Issues such as radical Islam, the increasing influence of India, and the deterioration of Iran and the US relationships, may necessitate a shift in foreign policy. It is evident that Pakistan is navigating through turbulent times, raising concerns for the broader region.

February 26, 2024
Imran Khan’s Setback: Coalition of Political Dynasties to Take Power in Pakistan

In the end, it’s all about power. Two arch-rivals, both hailing from prominent political dynasties and tainted by allegations of corruption, have forged an alliance to grasp the reins of authority. Following the dramatic aftermath of the recent general election in Pakistan, a coalition comprising the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has orchestrated a strategic accord, effectively sidelining the party led by the populist former prime minister, Imran Khan, despite its securing the highest number of votes.

The coalition, composed of former collaborators who worked together to dismantle Imran Khan’s PTI government, was revealed in a press conference held in Islamabad on Tuesday night. With a shared goal of addressing the nation’s numerous challenges, these opposing factions, supported by two smaller coalition partners, publicly announced their plan to form a united government. Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister and current president of PML-N, emerged as their nominee for the position of prime minister.

In response to this intricate political maneuver, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party vehemently denounced the coalition as “mandate thieves,” criticizing the collaborative endeavor to wrest control from the party that secured the highest number of votes. Despite PTI holding the largest vote percentage and the highest number of members, their inability to contest with a uniform election symbol, due to a ban, led to PML-N emerging as the largest party according to the election commission. With PPP and smaller parties lending their support, this coalition is poised to secure the majority of 133 seats out of 265. The military, a crucial determinant of power dynamics in the nation, has already given its endorsement to this formidable coalition.

As the final tally comes out by election commission, The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has successfully garnered support by endorsing independent candidates, securing a significant tally of 92 seats. In a tightly contested political arena, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) has strategically allied with independent candidates, consolidating a formidable bloc with 81 seats. The Pakistan People’s Party follows with 54 seats, while the Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), and the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) hold 17, 6, and 3 seats, respectively. Contributing to the intricate mosaic of political representation, smaller parties like the Balochistan National Party (Mengal), Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party, Awami National Party, Balochistan Awami Party, Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen, Pakistan Muslim League (Z), and Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party each hold one or two seats. This diverse distribution highlights the multiparty dynamics in play, laying the groundwork for a coalition government that necessitates strategic alliances for effective governance.

Initially anticipated as a straightforward victory for PML-N and its leader, the three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the election took an unexpected turn. PTI’s overwhelming support translated into the highest number of parliamentary seats, dealing a perceived blow to Nawaz Sharif, who had received tacit support from Pakistan’s influential military—an institution historically known for shaping election outcomes. PTI contends that widespread rigging tainted the electoral landscape, leading to an alleged injustice that deprived them of numerous parliamentary seats. From his prison confines on Tuesday, Khan cautioned against other political entities “venturing into the misadventure of forming a government with stolen votes.”

The subsequent press briefing illuminated the coalition’s selection of Shehbaz Sharif, the younger sibling of Nawaz Sharif and a former prime minister from 2022 to 2023, as their nominee for the role of prime minister. With no opposition within the coalition, he stands poised to assume the position uncontested. Asif Ali Zardari, co-chair of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), elucidated the reasoning behind their alignment with PML-N, stating, “Looking at everything, we have thought and decided to sit together. We have contested elections against each other, but despite that, it is not necessary forever. Opposition happens in elections. It was electioneering opposition, not ideological opposition.”

While Zardari is slated for the presidency nomination, the PPP affirmed their intention to abstain from holding ministries within the coalition government. These roles will be occupied by figures from PML-N and smaller coalition partners. Bilawal Bhutto, Zardari’s son and PPP co-chair, exhibited reluctance to forge a close association between the party and the coalition government, rooted in the considerable support for PTI among the masses and the perceived unpopularity of PML-N.

Shehbaz Sharif expressed gratitude to Zardari and Bilawal, acknowledging their party’s decision to vote for PML-N. He emphasized the coalition’s unified stance, declaring, “Today we have united to tell the nation that we all accept the split mandate.” Despite this, public skepticism and legitimacy questions persist, prompting Shehbaz Sharif to pledge “revolutionary steps” to address the economic crisis. However, the new government inherits power amid a cloud of public distrust, particularly from fervent supporters of Khan and PTI, who view PML-N and PPP as enablers of military interference in politics.

The coalition’s proclamation also underscores the sustained dominance of Pakistan’s two powerful political dynasties – the Bhuttos and the Sharifs. Maryam Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, assumes the role of chief minister of Punjab province, wielding significant political influence.

In anticipation of a potential opposition role, PTI’s leadership categorically rejected coalition offers from PML-N or PPP, bolstered by the incarceration of numerous senior PTI figures who allege politically motivated legal proceedings against them. Responding to the evolving political landscape, Zardari extended an olive branch to PTI for reconciliation, stating, “It should, and every other political force should, come and talk with us. Our economic and defense agenda should be common.”

Despite legal challenges raised by PTI, the impending government is destined to be a coalition of PML-N and PPP. Despite skepticism from international media, the military’s decisive role solidifies this alliance. The future trajectory of this government may be foreseeable, as any internal issues within this coalition are unlikely to lead to another election, given the fragile state of Pakistan’s economy. The notorious alliance of parties notorious for corruption and dynastic politics, appears poised to steer Pakistan, raising concerns about the country’s future stability.

February 15, 2024
People Choose Democracy in Pakistan; “Military Nominee” Fails to Impress
In the recent Pakistan general election, both the military and Nawaz Sharif fell short in their endeavors to secure victory. Instead, the electorate opted for the alternative led by the Islamic populist figure Imran Khan, who is presently incarcerated on serious charges, including an alleged non-Islamic manner of marrying his wife – a crime in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Despite Imran Khan’s imprisonment, his party had to navigate the electoral landscape with independent candidates, lacking a uniform election symbol. Surprisingly, the voters rejected candidates endorsed by the military, opting instead for those aligned with Imran Khan.

To summarize the distribution of seats for various parties in the Pakistan general election according to Al Jazeera’s report:
- Pakistan People’s Party (PPP): 54 Seats
- Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN): 76 Seats
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Affiliates: 97 Seats
- Others: 37 Seats (Including the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM -17)
The total number of seats mentioned in the report is 264.

According to reports from Pakistan, no single party secured a majority in the 265-seat assembly. Imran Khan’s affiliates emerged with a leading position, securing 97 seats, although they currently lack an official party structure. The party with the majority, officially backed by the military and representing former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), is set to shape the political landscape. The election outcome underscores a significant divergence from the expectations set by the military and Nawaz Sharif, highlighting the enduring support for Imran Khan and his political vision even in the face of challenges and legal controversies.

This election outcome not only stands as a testament to Imran Khan’s political standing but, perhaps more significantly, reflects the public’s aversion to military intervention in governance. The lingering uncertainty revolves around whether Imran Khan can establish a government, fostering the potential for a coalition government or, conversely, grappling with a military junta in the upcoming term. Despite enduring challenges such as living costs, security, energy, employment, and environmental concerns, the noteworthy aspect extends beyond the yet undetermined final seat tally for each party. The remarkable voter turnout signals a resolute commitment to exercising democratic rights and resisting military interference in the electoral process.

Despite allegations of vote-rigging and a suspicious internet blackout during the election, General Asim Munir, the current army chief, remains optimistic about the outcome. The military’s endeavors to manipulate the election were seemingly thwarted, partly due to the innovative use of social media by the PTI, including AI-generated campaign videos featuring Khan addressing voters from jail.

Although Nawaz Sharif secured the second position, he assertively claims his right to form the next government. To achieve this, he may seek support from the PPP, his historical rivals, and potentially court independents aligned with Khan. Both parties, emblematic of powerful political dynasties—the Sharif family and the Bhutto family—may engage in political negotiations in the days ahead before the largest party or coalition is decided and subsequently invited by the president to form the government.

Before the polling on February 8th, the prevailing perspective suggested that Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister and leader of the PML-N, was on the verge of assuming the role of the next prime minister. This perception gained traction as he appeared to have tacit support from Pakistan’s influential military establishment, a historical powerhouse recognized as the nation’s political arbiter, renowned for influencing elections and directly shaping governance through coups.

As the election approached, it became clear that the military leadership was resolute in preventing Imran Khan’s party from regaining power. Khan, who had initially secured victory in 2018 with military backing, experienced the dissolution of their alliance, ultimately leading to the orchestrated downfall facilitated by the generals.

In a spokesman role for Imran Khan, Ali Khan emphasized the crucial part that the military, frequently referred to as the “establishment,” plays in shaping the political environment. Ali Khan was shocked by the public’s overwhelming support and encouraged the “prime institution”, which is the military, to respect the people’s will and avoid getting directly involved in politics, even in the face of the military’s best efforts to retain control.

Despite these appeals, the imprint of the military’s influence remained unmistakable in the election outcomes. Nawaz Sharif’s apparent return from political exile, facilitated by a clandestine agreement with the army, echoed a history fraught with turbulence, marked by the conclusion of previous terms following challenges to military authority.

Within Sharif’s party, apprehensions surfaced concerning the election results and the anticipated formation of a feeble coalition government. Some speculated that this coalition might align with the military’s agenda, strategically sidestepping challenges to their political and business interests. There were murmurs of the potential ascension of Sharif’s younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif, to the role of prime minister should such a coalition come to fruition.

A senior PML-N leader intimated that the military harbored concerns about Nawaz Sharif’s pursuit of a parliamentary majority, apprehending the resurgence of a defiant leader. The military seemingly derived satisfaction from the election results, capitalizing on a society divided and polarized. A hung parliament, according to observers, conforms to the military’s proclivity for control through repression, ensuring their unopposed dominance in the political arena.

The Chief of Pakistan’s military is urging political leaders to demonstrate “maturity and unity” in the aftermath of an inconclusive recent election. The failure to produce a clear winner has prompted the military’s favored party to forge a coalition for governance. The military’s historical influence over Pakistan’s political landscape, with generals overseeing nearly half of the country’s post-1947 history since partition from India, is significant. General Syed Asim Munir stressed that elections are not a zero-sum competition but a mechanism to determine the people’s mandate. He called on political parties to respond with maturity and unity, emphasizing the importance of stability and a healing approach to transcend the prevailing politics of anarchy and polarization.

In the aftermath of an unforeseen election triumph, Imran Khan’s political party asserts its determination to lead the next government, despite opposition efforts to wrest power through a discreet coalition deal. However, challenges loom large as Khan remains incarcerated and effectively in exile, posing potential ramifications for the governance of any forthcoming administration. The political landscape, shaped by Imran Khan’s brand of Islamist populism, prompts reflections on Pakistan’s future, especially in the context of perceived shortcomings.

The election results suggest potential geopolitical repercussions as well. A fragile government backed by the military may resort to conflict with India to garner public support, a move that could exacerbate the country’s existing challenges. The unfolding political developments will likely have a profound impact on the entire region. In such a scenario, Sharif emerges as a favorable candidate for the military. The impending struggle to secure a government position may witness independent affiliates aligning with Nawaz Sharif’s coalition, enticed by financial and power incentives. Should these efforts prove unsuccessful, the imminent specter of military rule—a familiar occurrence in Pakistan—continues to loom on the horizon.
February 12, 2024
The Power Play: A Closer Look at Pakistan General Election 2024

Pakistan finds itself in its most challenging period since its inception. Confronted with an array of formidable obstacles encompassing poverty, inflation, corruption, substantial public debt, escalating military expenditures, and a surging wave of extremism, the nation is navigating the complexities of organizing a general election for the national and state assemblies.

Set for February 8, 2024, the impending general elections in Pakistan stand as a critical juncture in shaping the composition of the 16th National Assembly. The spotlight is on two major political contenders vying for the leadership: the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), helmed by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the prevailing party in the previous elections, faces a unique predicament, with its leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan prohibited from contesting in the election. Moreover, a contentious Supreme Court ruling, stripping them of their electoral symbol in the lead-up to the elections, has compelled them to field candidates as Independents.

The oscillation between democratic and military rule in the so-called “Islamic Republic” State adds a touch of irony when discussing tenures. While the constitution stipulates a consistent 5-year term for the government, the actual duration often hinges on military decisions. The last General Elections in Pakistan took place in 2018. The National level election occurred in 272 constituencies, each selecting one member for the National Assembly. Simultaneously, at the provincial level, elections transpired in all four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA). Despite numerous changes in government leadership, the 2018 parliament successfully completed its mandated 5-year term.

The aftermath of the elections saw the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerge as the single largest party at the national level, securing both the popular vote and a majority of seats. At the provincial level, the PTI maintained its dominance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) retained its stronghold in Sindh. The newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) claimed the top spot in Balochistan. In Punjab, a closely contested scenario unfolded, with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) initially securing the largest number of directly elected seats. However, with the support of Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and the inclusion of independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter ultimately became the largest party, successfully forming the government. The intricacies of Pakistan’s political landscape, shaped by these elections, highlight the intricate dance between democratic processes and military influences.

The landscape of 2024 diverges significantly from that of 2018. Imran Khan, the once-popular leader who secured victory in the 2018 election, was compelled to step down from the head of the government following a no-confidence vote in 2022. His political fortunes took a further hit with a 10-year ban, preventing his participation in the upcoming general election. The party he led, PTI, has faced neglect in the election arena, with its symbol removed and often obscured in television broadcasts.

Shehbaz Sharif assumed the role of the new prime minister after the successful no-confidence vote. Subsequently, in 2023, as the parliament’s five-year tenure concluded, Anwar ul Haq Kakar took charge as the Caretaker Prime Minister. After protracted negotiations and disputes over the election date, Pakistan finally settled on a definitive schedule in February.

As the 129 million citizens prepare to select their prime minister, the political scenario is still completely unpredictable. The potential for low voter turnout and concerns over terrorist activities cast a shadow on the election. With Imran Khan absent from the arena, and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) not participating, discussions about the last election’s winner are set aside. In the previous election, PTI, with its populist ideology under Imran Khan’s charismatic leadership, military support, and a stance against corruption, secured 31.82% of the votes. This translated into 149 seats out of 342 after the election, surpassing the majority threshold of 171 with the assistance of smaller parties.

The main candidates in the current election contest are the Pakistan People’s Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Another prominent candidate in this election is Fazal ur Rahman, who is affiliated with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (Fazl).

The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML(N), positioned as a center-right and conservative political entity in Pakistan, currently holds the status of the third-largest party in the Senate. Established in 1993, the party emerged as a consolidation of influential conservative figures after the dissolution of the Islamic Democratic Alliance, with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at its helm. While the party’s foundational principles lean towards conservatism, advocating for free markets, deregulation, lower taxes, and private ownership, recent years have witnessed a shift towards a more liberal stance on social and cultural matters. However, members have faced allegations of employing Islamist populist rhetoric.

The historic 2018 general election in Pakistan saw a close race between the PML-N and PTI. The PML-N won 165 seats in the Punjab legislature and 64 seats in the National legislature of Pakistan, their influence was less pronounced in the assemblies of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Baluchistan. After the election, his son, Hamza Shahbaz, became the Leader of the Opposition in Punjab (Pakistan), while Shehbaz Sharif became the Opposition Leader in the National Assembly.

PML-N played a pivotal role in the opposition alliance, Pakistan Democratic Movement, which successfully orchestrated a No-confidence motion against Imran Khan, leading to his removal from office on April 10, 2022. Subsequently, Shehbaz Sharif ascended to the position of Prime Minister of Pakistan. As the upcoming elections approach, PML-N, led by Nawaz Sharif, anticipates a triumph in the absence of PTI. Pre-election opinion polls conducted by reputable Pakistani surveyors, including Gallup Pakistan and the Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR), indicate that PMLN has regained ground against its rival, PTI, particularly since June 2023. The return of Nawaz Sharif from exile and the Supreme Court’s decision disallowing the bat symbol associated with former national cricket team skipper Imran Khan have been influential factors in this resurgence.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) stands as a center-left, social-democratic political force in Pakistan, currently holding the position of the second-largest party in the Senate. Established in 1967, the party emerged in response to the military rule of President Muhammad Ayub Khan, uniting prominent left-wing politicians under the leadership of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. While the PPP’s initial platform was rooted in socialism, its objectives persistently include the transformation of Pakistan into a social-democratic state, the promotion of egalitarian values, the establishment of social justice, and the maintenance of a robust military. Among the three largest political parties in Pakistan, alongside the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the PPP has played a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape. The advent of PTI in Pakistan’s political arena significantly impacted the PPP, but they aspire to gain ground in some provinces and witness a substantial boost in their vote share.

On the other hand, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (Fazl) (JUI-F) represents a Deobandi Sunni political entity in Pakistan, often hailed as “the biggest religious-political party” in the country. Concentrated predominantly in southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Baluchistan, areas primarily inhabited by Pashtuns, JUI-F may not clinch a victory single-handedly in the upcoming election. However, experts posit that the party holds the potential to influence the ruling dynamics, with some believing that the chance of PML-N securing a single-party majority is relatively low.

Regardless of the election outcome, the military’s influence will loom large over Pakistan’s future, presenting a myriad of challenges in the years to come. Hopes for a government capable of controlling the military and fostering economic prosperity seem bleak. However, even maintaining the current situation could be considered a positive scenario for Pakistan.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once prominent funders of Pakistan as an Islamic nation, have curtailed their financial support, redirecting their focus towards their own growth. Meanwhile, China’s mounting debt and increasing control over the country, coupled with the waning interest of the USA and the West in the region, along with Iran’s aggression and India’s aspirations for superpower status, all contribute to the turbulent times ahead for Pakistan.

In an effort to present themselves favorably on the global stage, Pakistan must project an image of a democratic nation governed by rule of law. This election assumes paramount importance in shaping the country’s future, serving as a crucial factor in navigating the challenging geopolitical landscape.

February 3, 2024