Tag: Philippines

  • Duterte On Arrest: What’s Next for His dynasty?

    Duterte On Arrest: What’s Next for His dynasty?

    The relentless drama of Philippine politics has taken another dramatic turn with the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte at Manila’s international airport, following a request from the International Criminal Court (ICC). A towering figure in one of the country’s two dominant political dynasties, Duterte’s detention is more than a legal reckoning—it is a moment of profound political consequence. With the general elections fast approaching in May, the Duterte family, now steered by its next generation, is fighting to preserve its influence in an increasingly hostile landscape.

    President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s decision to comply with the ICC’s warrant, coming after his earlier move to remove Duterte’s daughter from the vice presidency, appears to be a calculated bid to erode the family’s power. In a time when ICC warrants are often dismissed or ignored, Marcos Jr.’s cooperation is widely seen as a strategic maneuver—one that not only neutralizes a formidable rival but could also signal the decline of a once-dominant political dynasty.

    Duterte Indicted

    As his 80th birthday nears, an international tribunal closes in on the former president. Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court (ICC) accuse him of crimes against humanity for orchestrating a ruthless anti-drug campaign that claimed up to 30,000 lives. Gunmen, acting under his war on drugs, executed most of the victims—men from the country’s poorest urban enclaves—in the streets, blurring the line between state policy and unrestrained violence..

    Duterte’s rise to the presidency in 2016 was built on a promise of unrelenting violence. Before assuming national office, he had already cultivated a fearsome reputation as the mayor of Davao City, where he was accused of deploying criminal gangs to carry out extrajudicial executions. On the campaign trail, he vowed to rid the country of drugs with a crackdown so ruthless that, he boasted, Manila Bay’s fish would grow fat on the bodies of the slain. Once in power, he made good on his threats, publicly endorsing the killing of suspected drug dealers and even encouraging ordinary citizens to take up arms against addicts.

    Since his election, estimates cited by the ICC suggest that between 12,000 and 30,000 civilians have been killed in anti-drug operations. His long-anticipated arrest came as he arrived at Manila’s international airport from Hong Kong, where the prosecutor general served him with an ICC warrant, formally charging him with crimes against humanity. He was swiftly taken into custody and has since boarded a flight bound for The Hague.

    The Political Impact

    Despite the international outcry over his administration’s bloody drug war, Duterte remained a deeply entrenched political force, particularly in his stronghold of Davao. Yet even his most devoted supporters, for all their outrage over his arrest, are unlikely to transform their defiance into a large-scale People Power-style uprising. For now, their resistance is largely confined to the digital sphere, far removed from the historic street protests that once altered the course of Philippine politics. Still, Duterte is not merely an individual; he is the patriarch of a powerful political dynasty, with his family wielding influence at both the local and national levels. How they navigate this crisis will determine whether the Duterte name retains its political clout or fades into irrelevance.

    Many analysts see his arrest as the beginning of his dynasty’s decline. Unlike Duterte, whose strongman persona and incendiary rhetoric cultivated a nationwide following, his children have yet to command the same level of appeal. His downfall, they argue, is more than just a legal reckoning—it is a repudiation of the brand of politics he embodied, one that valued brute force over diplomacy. Meanwhile, Marcos Jr. has capitalized on this shift, recasting himself as a pragmatic and responsible leader—one who champions human rights and the rule of law. In doing so, he not only consolidates his own power but also leaves an already fragmented opposition struggling to find its footing.

    For years, Duterte sought to insulate himself from prosecution by pulling the Philippines out of the Rome Statute in 2019, effectively shielding himself from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. But Marcos Jr. reversed course, rejoining the treaty and clearing the way for the ICC’s case against Duterte to move forward. His arrest marks the final and irrevocable fracture in the Marcos-Duterte alliance, a strategic partnership that secured their joint electoral victory in 2022. The alliance had propelled Duterte’s daughter, Sara, to the vice presidency while helping Marcos Jr. mobilize Duterte’s voter base. But the split had been brewing for some time. Marcos methodically distanced himself, rejoined the ICC, and systematically sidelined Sara—moves that now seem less like routine political repositioning and more like the calculated dismantling of a former ally.

    Time for another Duerte?

    Rodrigo Duterte’s children—Sara, Paolo, and Sebastian—occupy key positions of power, ensuring the family’s continued political relevance. Sara Duterte currently serves as the 15th Vice President of the Philippines, having been elected alongside Bongbong Marcos in 2022, when he secured the presidency in a decisive landslide. Before assuming the vice presidency, Sara was the mayor of Davao City, a position she first held in 2010 after succeeding her father, who had completed his third term. She returned to the post in 2016 when Rodrigo Duterte launched his presidential bid, having previously served as his vice mayor in 2007.

    Paolo Duterte, the eldest son, has represented Davao City’s 1st District in Congress since 2019 and previously served as Deputy Speaker for Political Affairs. His political trajectory includes stints as vice mayor to his father in 2013 and later to his sister in 2018. Meanwhile, Sebastian Duterte, who ran unopposed in 2019, succeeded Paolo as vice mayor and later replaced Sara as Davao City mayor following the May 2022 elections. The Duterte family’s hold over Davao’s mayoralty has been nearly unbroken since 1988, with the only exception occurring between 1998 and 2001, when Rodrigo Duterte was briefly succeeded by Benjamin de Guzman before reclaiming the post.

    As the Duterte dynasty faces a political reckoning, the question of who will emerge as its next standard-bearer looms large. Sara Duterte, despite her position as Marcos Jr.’s vice president, has openly positioned herself as his rival. Her confrontational stance, including incendiary rhetoric that at times suggests her allies are prepared to remove Marcos from power, has resonated with a significant segment of Filipinos while also exposing her to political risk. Now facing an impeachment process that threatens to derail her career, she could either see her ambitions cut short or find herself elevated as the leader of an opposition movement, paving the way for another Duterte resurgence.

    Many believe the Duterte family will use Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest to craft a narrative of persecution, portraying him as a martyr punished for his leadership. This framing could rally public sympathy, reinforcing the dynasty’s influence even in adversity. In response, the family may attempt to introduce a new figurehead, ensuring the continuity of the Duterte brand in Philippine politics. Whether Filipinos embrace or reject this strategy remains to be seen, but the dynasty’s capacity to shape the country’s political landscape is far from diminished.

  • Sara Duterte’s Impeachment: When Political Heirs Flunk the Job

    Sara Duterte’s Impeachment: When Political Heirs Flunk the Job

    Philippine politics, often regarded as one of the world’s most troubled democracies, feels like a script lifted from third-rate Indian films—a full-on drama with a cast of characters drawn from powerful dynasties. The narrative is laced with an unhealthy dose of masala: intrigue, betrayal, and a penchant for bloodshed. The latest installment, starring President Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, is performing well in the Philippines’ political theater. The revenge story now reaches its dramatic, inevitable climax. Duterte, embroiled in accusations ranging from plotting the assassination of the president to large-scale corruption and failing to confront China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea, has finally faced impeachment.

    On Wednesday, legislators in the House of Representatives, many of them allies of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., deepened the political rift between the country’s two highest leaders by advancing an impeachment complaint against the vice president. With at least 215 lawmakers signing the petition—well beyond the required threshold—the complaint was swiftly sent to the Senate, which would serve as the tribunal for the proceedings, according to House Secretary-General Reginald Velasco during the chamber’s final session before a four-month recess. Among the signatories were Representative Sandro Marcos, the president’s son, and Speaker Martin Romualdez. The complaint called on the Senate to convene as an impeachment court, convict the vice president, remove her from office, and disqualify her from holding any future public office. It accused her of betraying public trust, abusing power in a tyrannical manner, and showing an inability to hold public office, with actions that demonstrated a disregard for the 1987 Constitution.

    The Marcos and Duterte families remain locked in a political battle that has stymied the Philippines’ progress, with their contrasting policies—especially in foreign affairs—fueling divisions. While Marcos has strengthened defense ties with the United States, his predecessor, former president Rodrigo Duterte, cultivated close relations with China and Russia during his turbulent term, which ended in 2022. Despite these differences, the two families unexpectedly allied during the 2022 presidential election, securing Marcos Jr. the presidency and Sara Duterte the vice presidency. However, their alliance swiftly unraveled, giving rise to a fierce power struggle.

    Though often seen as politically inexperienced, Sara Duterte has gradually carved out her own influence, distancing herself from Marcos’s circle. As this political drama unfolds, she has become a central figure in Philippine politics, attracting public attention in a country where political rivalries often shape leadership prospects. Many now view her as the Duterte family’s strongest candidate for the presidency in 2028.

    However, the impeachment process carries significant risks for her. If the Senate upholds the charges, she would be barred from future elections. While Sara Duterte has not yet responded publicly to her impeachment, her brother, Representative Paolo Duterte, has condemned it as a clear act of political persecution. He accused rival lawmakers of hastily gathering signatures to push a baseless case to the Senate. Duterte has consistently leveled accusations of corruption, weak leadership, and attempts to silence her against Marcos, his wife, and his cousin, House Speaker Martin Romualdez, speculating that they are targeting her due to fears she may challenge Marcos for the presidency once his six-year term concludes in 2028.

    The impeachment complaint against the vice president centers on a death threat she allegedly made against the president, his wife, and the House speaker last year, as well as accusations of irregularities in the use of her office’s intelligence funds and her failure to take a strong stance against Chinese aggression in the disputed South China Sea. 

    During an online news conference on November 23, she stated that she had contracted an assassin to kill Marcos, his wife, and Romualdez if she were assassinated, emphasizing that her words were not meant as a joke. She later clarified that she was not issuing a threat but expressing concerns for her own safety. However, as a member of a powerful political dynasty, she failed to recognize the gravity of making such statements about the country’s leader. Her remarks triggered an official investigation and raised national security concerns.

    Allegations of graft and corruption against the vice president stemmed from a months-long, televised House investigation into the alleged misuse of 612.5 million pesos ($10.5 million) in confidential and intelligence funds allocated to her offices as vice president and education secretary. Her political rift with Marcos eventually led to her departure from the education post.

    She has also faced accusations of unexplained wealth and failing to disclose her assets as required by law. However, she has repeatedly refused to address these allegations in detail, remaining evasive during tense televised hearings last year.

    However, this battle is as much about the next elections as it is about governance. The Philippine general elections are scheduled for May, but the 2028 presidential race is the real prize. Sara Duterte has already signaled her interest, positioning herself as a strong and decisive leader—an image that resonates with the country’s electorate, which has long gravitated toward tough-talking politicians.

    Her fate now rests with the 24 senators, two-thirds of whom must vote for her impeachment to remove her from office. A conviction would not only unseat her but also bar her from holding any future government position, effectively ending her presidential ambitions. But this is the Philippines—where political twists are always unpredictable.

  • Can the Philippines be found on Trump’s Map of Ambitions?

    Can the Philippines be found on Trump’s Map of Ambitions?

    Donald Trump, the real estate mogul-turned-politician, returned to the U.S. presidency after a four-year break, setting a record as the oldest president ever to hold office. Back in power, his focus has shifted to expanding the nation’s influence by acquiring new territories, beginning with Greenland, which he views as strategically vital due to its location and rich natural resources. He has also proposed the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state, stressing the potential benefits for both nations. Meanwhile, rumors circulating on social media suggest that Trump may target other regions, including Panama, the Gulf of Mexico, and even the Philippines, a former U.S. colony. While some dismiss these ambitions as mere fantasy, Trump remains resolute, driven by his bold vision and relentless pursuit of new opportunities.

    Greenland and Canada have long been strategically important due to their proximity to Russia and their access to the emerging trans-Arctic trade route. However, the war in Ukraine has revealed a shift in global power dynamics, with Russia’s influence waning and China emerging as a more significant threat to the U.S. This prompts a crucial question: Is Trump eyeing territories closer to China? While the U.S. already maintains strong alliances with nations like Japan and South Korea, Trump’s continued interest in Greenland and Canada suggests his ambitions may go beyond just security, seeking broader strategic objectives. Trump’s strategy seems to revolve around securing regions that provide both strategic advantages and increased global influence for the U.S. As part of this broader vision, he may turn his attention to territories closer to China. Enter the Philippines: strategically positioned in the Asia-Pacific and just off China’s shores, it remains one of the most Americanized countries in the region due to its history as a former U.S. colony. The Philippines could play a significant role in Trump’s long-term plans.

    Filipinos hold the distinction of being the oldest Asian ethnic group in the Americas, a legacy shaped by their arrival on North American shores more than four centuries ago. Filipino sailors, who made their way across the vast Pacific, were the first Asians to step onto what is now U.S. territory, reaching Morro Bay, California, as early as 1587. In 1763, a group of Filipinos established the first permanent settlement in Louisiana, giving rise to the Manilamen, a community whose members would later distinguish themselves in one of the most pivotal moments in American history. During the War of 1812, they fought alongside Americans in the Battle of New Orleans, their contributions a quiet but significant part of the nation’s struggle against the British Empire.

    The American state of Texas, once part of Spanish territory, was once christened “New Philippines” by the Spanish themselves. This name was not born of affection but of ambition—a vision of replicating the prosperity they had fostered in the Philippines on this side of the world. In 1898, the Philippine Revolution, inspired by the ideals of the French and American revolutions, reverberated with a demand for independence from Spanish rule. What followed was the United States’ acquisition of the Philippines through the Treaty of Paris, an act that set in motion not just the purchase, but the military invasion that would dismantle the nascent First Philippine Republic. The subsequent Philippine–American War would see the dissolution of Filipino sovereignty, and for all but a brief period of Japanese occupation from 1942 to 1945, the archipelago would remain under U.S. governance until 1946.

    Since the Philippines gained independence, the relationship between the country and the United States has remained strong, with deep ties across almost every sector. As one of the U.S.’s oldest partners in Asia and a crucial non-NATO ally, the Philippines holds significant strategic value. Unlike many former colonies, the Philippines has consistently maintained a positive view of the U.S., with surveys showing strong support over the years. This enduring favorability positions the Philippines as both a valuable ally and a potentially appealing candidate for annexation under Trump’s strategy.

    While the two nations share many cultural and historical connections, the idea of merging them would not be easily accepted by all. Though one could argue that such a move could lead to a stronger economy, better infrastructure, and more efficient governance, the political realities make this unlikely. The Philippines has one of the most corrupt political landscapes, dominated by powerful dynasties, where fair democratic processes often struggle. Therefore, Philippine politics would most likely reject any attempt to join the United States.

    A move to annex the Philippines would undoubtedly strengthen the U.S.’s influence in Asia, with a developed Philippines potentially playing a more prominent role in regional affairs. However, unlike Greenland and Canada, the Philippines lacks substantial natural resources, and its much larger population presents distinct challenges. Additionally, such a significant shift could attract accusations of recolonization, making it unpopular globally. While the possibility remains unlikely, it is not entirely out of the question—Donald Trump has a history of pursuing unconventional moves.

  • What’s Going On Between the Philippines President and Vice President?

    What’s Going On Between the Philippines President and Vice President?

    Philippine politics is a shame for democracy, dominated by powerful political dynasties. Politicians manipulate elections to maintain patronage networks, while clientelism and electoral fraud are deeply embedded in the system, allowing corruption to thrive. Weak state institutions struggle to uphold their credibility. Though it is interesting to watch, like a drama—particularly action dramas—these dynasties love to fight each other, and often these feuds reach toxic levels. In the latest episode of the Philippines’ political drama, the president and vice president, elected from different political dynasties, have sparked a new wave of conflict, including death threats. Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte, publicly declared on Saturday that she would have someone assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (Bongbong Marcos), son of former president Ferdinand Marcos Sr. Duterte revealed that she had contacted an assassin and ordered him to kill Marcos, his wife, and the speaker of the Philippine House of Representatives if enemies were to murder her. She believes the president’s team is trying to kill her. She made it clear that her words were serious. Duterte also threatened to exhume the remains of Marcos Sr., her political rival’s father, and throw them into the sea. Too cold!

    The very next day, Duterte denied making an assassination threat and clarified that any killing would depend on her dying first. Duterte further claimed that merely discussing the possibility of such an act was not actionable. However, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared on Monday that he would not take troubling threats against him lightly. Marcos’s office labeled Duterte-Carpio’s remarks as an active threat and said the executive secretary had referred the incident to the Presidential Security Command for immediate action.

    Although the vice president later retracted her comments, the fallout fueled discussions about her potential impeachment. And The Department of Justice noted that, unlike the president, Duterte was not immune from suit and might face charges of grave threats and sedition, as well as disbarment from her law profession. And it’s quite possible in revenge politics. 

    During the 2022 presidential election, the relationship between the president and vice president, as well as their two political families, was strong. However, it has since deteriorated. The two families clash over foreign policy, former president Rodrigo Duterte’s deadly war on drugs, and other issues. Sara Duterte resigned from the cabinet in June while remaining vice president, signaling the collapse of a powerful political alliance. In the fallout, Speaker Romualdez, a cousin of Marcos, slashed the vice-presidential office’s budget by nearly two-thirds. Angered, Duterte accused Marcos of incompetence and even claimed she had imagined cutting off the president’s head. She also called for the country to descend into hell under a lying president.

    Even though the threat is most likely politically motivated, the Southeast Asian nation is notorious for political violence, killings, and other criminal activities. Some consider Sara Duterte’s claim and threat to be possible, but many believe she is simply laying the groundwork for the upcoming elections. Filipinos have a long history of supporting strong, mafia-like leaders, and she and her family are well aware of this. Her dramatic break with the president gives her the chance to present herself as an alternative to a government that has lost popularity due to the economy’s lackluster performance. Despite the threats of impeachment and potential sedition charges, this could provide her with a stronger platform for the 2028 presidential race than remaining aligned with the Marcos administration. It is clear that she has inherited the toxic politics of the Philippines.

  • The Story of Alice Guo, the Philippine Mayor Who Alleged Chinese Espionage

    The Story of Alice Guo, the Philippine Mayor Who Alleged Chinese Espionage

    In 2022, Alice Guo was elected as the new mayor of Bomaban, a town on Luzon, the Philippines largest and most populous island. Despite limited public information about her background, such as her birthplace or education, Guo defeated the Nationalist People’s Coalition candidate. It was clear that this independent candidate with an uncertain past heavily invested in her campaign, with expenses exceeding ₱134,000, as reported in her Statement of Contributions and Expenditures (SOCE). Although her background and activities raised doubts, Guo remained in office until last week, specifically August 13, when she was dismissed by the Ombudsman.

    In a country like the Philippines, where corruption is widespread, such events may seem plausible. However, the controversy intensified when Guo accused a Chinese spy and presented evidence of her connections to China, significantly affecting Philippine politics. As tensions between China and the Philippines rose – especially after another vessel collision – news emerged that Alice Guo, who was on trial, had escaped the country. This development was a major blow to the Philippine judiciary and political systems.

    Alice Guo’s story took a dramatic turn in March when officials raided a compound in her town and found around 1,000 workers, including victims of human trafficking, along with luxury villas, high-end cars, and expensive cognac. Investigators discovered a panic room and three underground tunnels at the eight-hectare (20-acre) site, which were believed to be escape routes for evading authorities. The Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Commission (PAOCC) reported that these tunnels led to a vacant plot of land owned by Guo. Guo, a controversial figure, reportedly owned 50% of Baofu, the compound where the criminal activities occurred, though she claims to have sold her share before becoming mayor. Despite these suspicious circumstances, Guo was involved in important meetings as a small-town mayor.

    In June 2024, the Ombudsman suspended Guo from her position as mayor for up to six months following graft charges filed by the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG). On August 13, 2024, the Ombudsman dismissed Guo from office. When Guo appeared before senators, she struggled to answer questions about her childhood, claiming she had grown up on a farm in Bamban. However, school records revealed by a senator contradicted her statements about her education. Additionally, the election commission discovered that the fingerprints on her election records matched those of a Chinese citizen. During the hearings, Senator Hontiveros accused Guo of possibly being a Chinese spy or criminal. Guo has since ceased attending Senate hearings, with her lawyer citing trauma from the experience and the widespread mockery of her responses on social media.

    Guo is now the subject of a Senate arrest warrant for failing to attend hearings. However, reports have surfaced that she managed to outsmart authorities and flee the country. On Monday, Senator Risa Hontiveros claimed that Guo had left the Philippines, a claim previously denied by the Department of Justice. Hontiveros provided evidence indicating that Guo arrived at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia on July 18, prompting questions about how she could have evaded such close scrutiny. Officials allege that Guo then flew to Singapore and later took a ferry to Riau, Indonesia, on August 18. An Indonesian immigration official confirmed her entry into the country that day, according to a Reuters report. The media began to celebrate it as a perfect spy game.

    President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed anger over the news, despite the Chinese spy charges against Guo being upheld in court. He announced that a full-scale investigation is underway to determine how Guo managed to leave the country, and those responsible will be suspended and held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. The presidential office has also ordered the cancellation of her passport. 

    The president’s statement highlights the weaknesses and vulnerabilities in the Philippine administration system, which has long been criticized for corruption and poor rule of law. Despite Guo running as an independent candidate, she supported Marcos Jr. during the 2022 campaign, backing both Bongbong Marcos for president and Sara Duterte for vice president. As the government defends itself, it will be interesting to see if China has deployed more spies in countries of strategic interest.

  • China and the Philippines Collide Again

    China and the Philippines Collide Again

    China and the Philippines, long at odds over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, found themselves in conflict once again. On Monday, Chinese and Philippine vessels collided during a confrontation near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, according to statements from both countries. As expected, each side blamed the other for the incident near the Sabina Shoal, which is very close to the Philippines but claimed by all parties with stakes in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines reported that two of its coast guard vessels were damaged by China’s unlawful maneuvers, while Beijing claimed it took control measures after the vessels allegedly entered waters around the shoal illegally. China’s claim to nearly the entire South China Sea, a crucial trade route, continues to fuel tensions, with the dispute further complicated by the region’s strategic importance.

    China and the Philippines Collide Again

    Although both parties are avoiding casualties and showing restraint to prevent a broader conflict, China and the Philippines have repeatedly clashed in the vital waterway in recent months. These confrontations include disputes over a warship that was grounded years ago by Manila on the contested Second Thomas Shoal, where a garrison is stationed – a strategic move by the Philippines. Despite an international tribunal ruling that China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea have no legal basis, Beijing continues to assert its dominance in the region. The Philippines, however, maintains its claim to the rusted, grounded ship, a move that China strongly opposes and views as a provocative action.\

    Both sides avoided taking responsibility for the recent collision. China Coast Guard spokesperson Geng Yu accused a Philippine vessel of deliberately colliding with a Chinese ship early on Monday. He stated that the Philippine coast guard vessels had illegally entered waters near the Xianbin Reef in the Nansha Islands without Chinese government permission, using the Chinese names for the Sabina Shoal and the Spratly Islands. China claims the Sabina Shoal, located 140 km (86 miles) west of the Philippine island of Palawan, and over 1,000 km from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan Island. Geng added that the China Coast Guard took control measures against the Philippine vessels in accordance with the law. He also accused the Philippine vessels of acting in an unprofessional and dangerous manner, leading to a glancing collision. Geng sternly warned the Philippine side to immediately cease its infringements and provocations.

    Meanwhile, Manila’s National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea reported that two of its coast guard ships sustained damage in collisions with Chinese vessels conducting unlawful and aggressive maneuvers near the Sabina Shoal. The confrontation resulted in structural damage to both Philippine Coast Guard vessels, according to Manila.
    In recent months, both Manila and Beijing have stationed coast guard vessels around the shoal, with the Philippines concerned that China might build an artificial island there, while China fears the Philippines will deposit additional ships to strengthen its claim. Footage purportedly showing the incident, attributed to the Chinese coast guard and shared by state broadcaster CCTV, depicts a Philippine vessel appearing to collide with the left side of a Chinese ship before moving away. Another 15-second clip seems to show the Chinese vessel making contact with the rear of the Philippine ship. Captions with the footage claimed that the Philippine ship made a sudden change of direction, causing the collision. Additionally, a second Philippine coast guard ship, the BRP Bagacay, was reportedly rammed twice by a Chinese coast guard vessel about 15 minutes later, resulting in minor structural damage, according to Malaya.

    The repeated clashes in the South China Sea have raised concerns that Manila’s ally, the United States, could be drawn into the conflict as Beijing escalates its efforts to assert its claims in the region. The Filipino crew involved in the recent incident were unharmed and continued their mission to resupply Philippine-garrisoned islands in the Spratly group, which reduces the likelihood of direct U.S. involvement. However, analysts warn that Beijing’s strategy appears to involve advancing from the Second Thomas Shoal toward the Sabina Shoal, encroaching on Manila’s exclusive economic zone and normalizing Chinese control of the area. This situation is increasingly alarming for the Philippines, and the potential for serious escalation remains high and could eventually involve the United States.

  • China and the Philippines to Ease Tensions in the South China Sea

    China and the Philippines to Ease Tensions in the South China Sea

    After escalating tensions to a highly inflammable level in the waters, including humiliations, passing highly volatile laws, and fueling the conflict in every way, it now seems that China is downplaying the situation and seeking to de-escalate tensions with the Philippines. It appears that China now aims only to maintain its claim to the sea and realizes that further inflaming the region would be detrimental. Consequently, they are preparing to compromise with the Philippines, spreading hope for peace in the region.

    According to reports, China and the Philippines have reached an understanding regarding resupply missions to a beached Filipino naval ship, a key flashpoint between the two countries in the South China Sea. In 1999, Manila intentionally beached the naval ship Sierra Madre on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal to assert its claims over the surrounding waters. Since then, a small group of sailors has remained on the vessel to support the Philippines interests, which has led to resupply missions that China has been accused of repeatedly attempting to obstruct. China asserts sovereignty over the South China Sea and is uninterested in the Philippines claims to the islands within it. China has accused the Philippines of using these supply missions to further its interests on the islands, while the Philippines has leveled similar accusations against China.

    The Chinese foreign ministry confirmed a temporary arrangement between the two sides to jointly manage maritime differences and de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea. The ministry reiterated China’s demand that the Philippines tow away the ship and restore Second Thomas Shoal to its original state, as if it were unmanned and without facilities. The ministry also stated that China is willing to allow the Philippines to provide supplies to the ship’s occupants on humanitarian grounds before the beached warship is removed. However, they warned that if the Philippines attempts to transport large amounts of building materials to the ship and construct fixed facilities or permanent outposts, China will not accept it and will resolutely block such actions to protect its sovereignty. It seems like China is indicating that it does not want to fight but is ready to engage in dialogue.

    The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) did not provide specifics about the provisional arrangement agreed upon Sunday for the resupply missions to the Sierra Madre. However, they noted that the arrangement followed frank and constructive discussions between the two sides earlier this month. The DFA emphasized that both parties continue to acknowledge the need to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation, agreeing that the arrangement will not affect each other’s positions in the South China Sea. Philippine foreign ministry spokesperson Teresita Daza also stated that they will not retreat from their claims on the South China Sea islands and affirmed that Manila will continue to assert its rights and jurisdiction in its maritime zones, including Second Thomas Shoal.

    The United States is bound to the Philippines by several defense agreements and pacts, including the well-known Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951. Additionally, the U.S. is working to increase cooperation with its allies in the East, such as Japan, Taiwan, and Australia, to build a military cooperation structure similar to NATO. This means that if tensions between China and the Philippines escalate further, it could develop into a regional conflict or even a third world war. However, the United States has no doubts about its commitment to the Philippines, and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that they will take all necessary measures to support the Philippines resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal. Interestingly, Sullivan’s counterpart in the Philippines, Eduardo Año, sought to prevent further escalation of tensions by stating that they do not need direct American military engagement in the resupply mission at this point.

    Both China and the Philippines have maintained firm positions on their territorial claims in the disputed waters. Tensions in the area have escalated into violence over the past year, including a recent incident where a Filipino soldier lost a finger in what Manila described as an intentional high-speed ramming by the Chinese Coast Guard. Numerous reports of similar incidents, mostly from the Chinese side, have involved attempts to humiliate opponents. Such provocations have raised fears of a conflict that could have global repercussions. However, recent developments and a mutual desire for dialogue offer the best solution for both China and the Philippines, as well as for the entire region.

  • Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    NATO, one of the most successful international military collaborations, has helped Europe and the United States defend against communism and the Soviet Union, maintaining a stalemate in Europe and avoiding a possible third world war. Its importance in bringing peace to Europe is undeniable, even though the left and anti-war groups may disagree. While the Soviet Union ended, the might of Russia has kept NATO alive. However, Russia has proven not to be a significant threat to NATO, and the United States now sees the primary threat coming from Asia. The continent is on a journey back to prominence, with Communist China, the world’s second-biggest economy, along with its communist allies and Russia, deciding to challenge the United States and its influence. The United States recognizes these risks and is shifting its focus from the Atlantic to East Asia, strengthening military relationships with Asian countries. 

    The bilateral military relationships that the United States maintains with countries in the region are slowly evolving into regional ones. Although no official multilateral military organization like NATO has been created, political scientists believe such a coalition is already in effect in East Asia. North Korea, a communist ally of China, has no doubts about this development. North Korean state media have connected it to a recent joint military exercise by South Korea, Japan, and the US, claiming that these drills demonstrate that the relationship among the three countries has evolved into “The Asian version of NATO”.

    The three countries recently launched large-scale joint military drills near China, called “Freedom Edge”, involving navy destroyers, fighter jets, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. These exercises aim to enhance defenses against missiles, submarines, and air attacks. Conceived at the three-way summit at Camp David last year, the exercise is designed to strengthen military cooperation amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula due to North Korea’s weapons testing and increasing military ties among Russia, North Korea, and China. Thus, the joint exercise’s mission extends beyond North Korea to include China and Russia.

    North Korea’s foreign ministry declared that Pyongyang would not overlook the strengthening of a US-led military bloc and would safeguard regional peace with an aggressive and overwhelming response, according to the KCNA news agency, on Sunday. It is certain that the Chinese government will take note of this development, especially given the increasing number of joint military exercises in the water near China and the disputed South China Sea, which China considers crucial.

    According to political analysts, beyond merely connecting allied countries in the region to NATO, the US has cultivated a group of nations capable of forming an inter-military collaboration in Asia similar to NATO. The United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and Singapore all fall under US military security in the region, effectively countering China’s influence. For more effective cooperation, a NATO-like body with a secretariat and other administrative structures could be established by the US soon. However, cost remains a significant issue, as there is already criticism from US citizens regarding US spending on NATO, while other member countries contribute less. It is clear that if the Soviet Union was the primary threat last century, China is seen as the primary threat to the United States in this century. Taming China will likely be a priority for the US despite spending issues in the coming decades.

    So, it’s not only North Korea’s comments; the United States is likely to move in this direction to prevent potential aggression from China and North Korea in the region. The rapid movements from the US side, including numerous diplomatic talks, military exercises, and weapons trade agreements, all indicate this. Given the failure of SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization), a US initiative modeled after NATO in Asia, due to disagreements among members, adding new members will likely involve close scrutiny and consideration of their importance.

    It will be interesting to see how this process progresses, especially since Chinese investments are significant in Asian countries, and the United States is expected to engage with them. Many Asian countries, which lean toward authoritarianism, may not prefer to align with the US if it means cutting ties with the Russia-China alliance. Only if an aggressive China emerges will a NATO-level multinational inter-military collaboration spanning vast regions be smoothly established.

  • How Beijing’s New Trespass Laws Will Affect the South China Sea?

    How Beijing’s New Trespass Laws Will Affect the South China Sea?

    The politics of the South China Sea are interesting to observe because we often witness numerous measures that appear to escalate towards war, only for tensions to suddenly diminish. This has been a frequent occurrence since the 2010s, during which China has re-emerged as a political and economic superpower. China harbors strong desires for control over Taiwan and the entire South China Sea but clearly fears direct conflict with the United States. Consequently, China introduces measures or claims to assert authority in these disputed areas, even though it cannot effectively implement or enforce them, merely to maintain its claims.

    However, the recent trespass laws, which allow foreigners accused of illegally entering Chinese waters to be detained for up to 60 days without trial, mark a further escalation in tensions in this fiercely contested waterway. The term “Chinese Water” is confusing. China’s Coast Guard Law, introduced in 2021 and serving as the basis for current regulations, applies to “maritime areas under Chinese jurisdiction” but lacks a clear definition. Maritime areas typically refer to the shores and economic zones of the country, but according to China, they encompass the entire South China Sea and the waters around Taiwan. This ambiguity creates significant confusion and tensions among neighboring countries and their fishing communities.

    As the law came into effect on Saturday, the neighboring Philippines, which strictly opposes China’s claim on the South China Sea, has stepped up patrols in the region ahead of the rollout of a new Chinese regulation empowering its coast guard to detain foreigners accused of trespassing. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has previously characterized the new Chinese regulations as concerning and an escalation of the situation. He has also stated that any deliberate killing of a Filipino citizen would be very close to “An Act of War”. There will be no doubts about that. Already, there are concerns that as maritime confrontations near the shores of the Philippines increase, so does the risk of a miscalculation that could inadvertently provoke conflict. There have been reports of Philippine vessels being humiliated by water cannons from the Chinese coast guard. Representatives of fishing groups, who are likely to be most affected by the recent regulation, have told Philippine media this week that they fear being detained at sea but have no option but to continue, as their livelihoods depend on it. This situation puts pressure on the Philippine government to enhance security measures in their waters. Other countries around the South China Sea are also observing the situation to understand China’s intentions behind the law.

    Even though there is much tension, the South China Sea remains devoid of disastrous war primarily due to the political stalemate unfolding in the region. China, the superpower seeking control over the entire region under Beijing’s authority, finds itself deadlocked by counter moves from the United States, which have strengthened neighboring countries along the coasts of the China Seas such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, remaining neutral, would lean towards the US if a conflict were to arise. Incidents such as firing water cannons at Philippine vessels have prompted warnings from the US, which has affirmed it would defend the Philippines, a treaty ally, in the event of an armed attack on its public vessels, aircraft, armed forces, or Coast Guard in the South China Sea. Therefore, a full-scale war would ultimately be detrimental to China, a fact acknowledged by China itself. Thus, China attempts to maintain its objectives through laws and unsupported claims.

    As neighboring countries protest the trespass law, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, has stated that the trespass laws are intended “To standardize the administrative law-enforcement procedures of Coast Guard agencies and better uphold order at sea”, and reassured that “Individuals and entities have no need for concern as long as they have not done anything illicit”. However, they have not defined what constitutes illicit.

    Even though the chance of a full-scale war remains low in the current situation, it is certain that the new trespass law will open up a “Lawfare”. The implementation of the new law could also prompt the Philippines to advance its own legal challenges against China. The Philippines has previously indicated it is considering filing a new legal challenge against China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, accusing it of environmental damage within the Philippine’s exclusive economic zone, the waters that stretch for 200 nautical miles (370 km) from a state’s coastline, where a country has special rights to exploit resources and build. Though From the Chinese perspective, the trespass laws are expected to maintain China’s aspirations alive.

  • Vietnam’s Spratly Reclamation Impact on Dispute

    Vietnam’s Spratly Reclamation Impact on Dispute

    The multi-party dispute in the South China Sea is escalating as more land reclamation projects are being carried out on the disputed islands. It’s not only China; other parties are involved as well. International media are mainly highlighting China’s actions, including their reclamation efforts and bullying tactics in the South China Sea, which serve their demand for complete control of the territory. Reports and maps show China’s major projects to turn rocks in international waters or disputed areas into artificial islands, converting them into military bases. This gives China an advantage, allowing them to claim more land and, through that, more sea. However, in reality, other parties interested in the region or sharing borders with the South China Sea are also making efforts to claim land using the same strategy. There are reports of Vietnam reclaiming land from the South China Sea, particularly around the Spratly Islands, which is causing serious tensions in the region.

    According to a report by the South China Morning Post, Vietnam, which has a long shoreline along the South China Sea, has reclaimed more land in the South China Sea in the past three years. This action could complicate and expand disputes in the contested waters. The report highlighted increased construction on islands and reefs occupied by Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia in the Nansha Islands, the name in which Beijing calls Spratly islands. The Beijing-based Grandview Institution stated that until 2019, the Vietnamese government had carried out only modest reclamation efforts on the 29 disputed islands and reefs it controlled in the Spratly Islands. However, Vietnam then embarked on major dredging and landfill work. Vietnam has carried out large-scale land expansion on several islands and reefs, adding 3 sq km of new land, far exceeding the total construction scale of the previous 40 years. Reports originating from Beijing allege that Vietnam has occupied a greater number of Chinese islands and reefs, stationed more troops, and erected more facilities than any other coastal state in the South China Sea. The report also noted that after 2021, following the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, Vietnam started using large cutter suction dredgers to reclaim land. These dredgers are specialized maritime vessels equipped with a rotating cutter designed to dredge rock, clay, silt, and sand. The Grandview Institution stated that the Vietnamese government had been extremely low-key and secretive about its island construction.

    The Spratly Islands, the small archipelago in the South China Sea with more than 100 reefs, islets, and islands, are the focal point of rival claims between China and Vietnam. The South China Sea islands, called the Nanshas by Beijing and referred to as Quần đảo Trường Sa by Hanoi, hold strategic significance for both countries. These islands are also subject to disputes along the Vietnamese coast. Although these communist nations currently do not engage in direct confrontations like China and the Philippines, and Vietnam avoids close cooperation with the United States, neither China nor Vietnam is willing to relinquish their claims. Both nations employ the same strategy to support their claims: extensive land reclamation. Vietnam and China are just two of the various parties claiming parts of the resource-rich South China Sea, through which important sea routes connect East Asia to Europe. Both of them know that control over these islands offers strategic dominance in the region and that the archipelago offers rich fishing grounds and potentially significant oil and natural gas reserves. These resources are crucial to the claimants in their attempts to establish international boundaries. Some of the islands in the Spratly archipelago have civilian settlements, while fewer than 50 islands are entirely occupied and contain structures suitable for military purposes. These islands are under the control of China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, and all these nations make great efforts to secure control over their territory.

    Morning Post’s report also referred to the Philippines’ increasing efforts to repair and reinforce a warship it grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal, another outcrop in the Spratlys. Coastguard vessels from China and the Philippines have clashed around the Scarborough Shoal, and tensions are brewing over Sabina Shoal. Philippines’ construction on its occupied features in the Spratlys was low-level and the defenses there were weak, so they were unlikely to pose a substantial threat to the military presence of other countries and the surrounding waters.  These actions all serve to complicate and escalate the disputes, impacting peace and stability in the region. Some observers say the South China Sea presents an even greater risk of conflict than the Taiwan Strait, but many believe the water is not a priority of China as Taiwan. But everyone doing their own part makes the sea more heated.