Tag: Philippines

  • How will “Squad” be beneficial for the Philippines?

    How will “Squad” be beneficial for the Philippines?

    Amid rising tensions, more regional blocs are emerging in East Asia and the Pacific. In addition to the Quad, consisting of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, and AUKUS, a defense pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US, a new regional bloc linking Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States is getting advanced into a more permanent alliance. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met counterparts from Australia, Japan, and the Philippines last week as Washington sought to deepen ties within the rising regional group, which Pentagon officials had privately nicknamed the “‘Squad”. The quadrilateral marks the latest regional partnership Washington has forged to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the region, and the formation of the alliance holds importance in the region’s evolving landscape as the United States expects imminent tensions in the region.

    The Philippines confronts substantial risks in the South China Sea, owing to its geography and close proximity to the Chinese shore. Nevertheless, the informal alliance referred to as the Squad offers a significant opportunity for the country. The Philippines will receive security assistance including both hardware and human resource training. Analysts suggest that this alliance will enable Manila to “Borrow the Strength” of the other three nations in countering challenges from China and in elevating the Philippines status beyond that of a “Junior Partner”. The Squad is expected to undertake more maritime exercises and provide greater security assistance to the Philippines, which in recent months has been involved in several naval skirmishes with Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. Washington has made it clear to all nations, including China, that Beijing’s recent behavior in the disputed waterway is “Irresponsible” and “Disregards International Law”. 

    The Squad will not just provide Manila with enhanced “Diplomatic Assurances” and assistance in building its capabilities but also guarantee increased interoperability between the Philippines and its allies. The absence of the Philippines in the Quad, formed between Asia-Pacific superpowers like Australia, Japan, India, and the United States, was notable. When India, traditionally allied with Russia, joined forces to counter China, the Philippines, the United States key ally in the region, was not included. This omission appeared to disregard the importance of the Philippines in the regional tensions, but the new alliance appears to rectify this.  Many believe there will be the move to  integrate the Philippines into the Quad to turn it into a five-member grouping, and some believe the United States forming an Asia-Pacific version of NATO. There are more countries in the region facing the threat of China and have entered into separate pacts with the US, such as Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. They could join with them when analyzing the tensions in the region.

    However, there are also dissenting voices; some argue that likening China to the Soviet Union or Russia is a mistake, suggesting that these agreements primarily benefit US interests. Chinese analysts warned that the Philippines had become increasingly manipulated by the US, losing its autonomy and becoming a pawn of the US in the region. Countries like India, never an ally of the US, have joined with them only to counter China, and they hold separate interests in the region. The integrating security pact will not agree with India, as they have been seeking separate relationships, including with the Philippines. India has forged ties with Manila, as seen in the recent sales of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines, noting that India-Philippines ties were likely to progress in non-traditional security areas such as cybersecurity, anti-piracy, and anti-terrorism. Last month, India delivered its first batch of supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines under a $375 million deal signed in 2022. However, the recent aggression of China on Philippines vessels is validating the Philippines moves and bringing the country to the center of tensions. 

    The United States can’t allow a situation like Ukraine in the South China Sea because significant suffering is occurring for the US and Europe due to the war. Additionally, as China seems to be losing momentum and facing significant challenges in its manufacturing sector, many predict that this situation will lead to an aggressive stance from China in the South China Sea, with the Philippines being a sure target in that situation. Here underscores the significance of the Squad; a bolstered opposition could prompt China to reassess its position. For the Philippines, it extends beyond security concerns; they foresee that aligning with the US can elevate them to the status of a regional power.

  • Who is Provoking Whom? US and Philippines Plan Military Drills in Disputed Waters

    Who is Provoking Whom? US and Philippines Plan Military Drills in Disputed Waters

    While western Asia is gripped by the fear of war, with Israel and Iran launching attacks against each other, Philippine and US forces will carry out their first-ever military exercises along the edge of South China Sea waters, outside their territorial waters. This action is poised to provoke China and deepen the crisis in the South China Sea and East Asia. Even though there is no issue with conducting military drills in international waters, and the Philippines and the US being long-time allies, it will undoubtedly represent a significant setback for China, a nation asserting claims over the South China Sea and striving to control regional politics. While it may resemble high school bullying, it underscores the imperative for countries to steer clear of further conflicts, as people suffer from the effects of ongoing wars.

    The annual military drills, known as Balikatan or “Shoulder-to-Shoulder” drills, are scheduled to take place from April 22nd to May 10th this year, with the participation of 16,700 soldiers. The program involves simulations of retaking enemy-occupied islands in areas facing Taiwan and the South China Sea, potentially sending a message to China. This year’s military drills are notable for the inclusion of the Philippine Coast Guard for the first time, reflecting their increasing involvement in confrontations with China, where they have previously faced humiliation from the Chinese navy in incidents involving water cannons.

    China appears to be paying close attention to this issue. Beijing continues to claim almost every inch of the South China Sea, citing historical and cultural ties to the region, despite an international tribunal’s 2016 ruling that Beijing’s expansive claims lacked legal legitimacy. Their unwavering position is supported by the strategic importance of the South China Sea to China’s political and economic hegemony. China’s aggressive actions against Philippine vessels prompted the Philippines and the US, its strongest ally, to decide to conduct the drill in the disputed waters.  The Chinese foreign ministry issued a warning, stating that the Philippines should be “Sober enough to realize” that inviting other nations to demonstrate their military  might in the South China Sea and provoke conflict will only heighten tensions and jeopardize stability in the region. China opposes the involvement of the United States and Japan in the South China Sea issue. During a scheduled press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stressed that “Attempts to enlist external forces to safeguard its purported security will only result in greater insecurity for itself”, urging both countries to refrain from provocations. Chinese official media also warned that such actions would have a “Destructive impact on regional security”.

    The foreign ministry of the Philippines asserted that China should “Reflect upon its own actions” in the South China Sea, stating that the country’s decision to strengthen ties with the US and Japan was a “Sovereign choice”. The ministry emphasized in a statement that “The source of tension in our region is well known to all”, linking the escalation of tensions in the region to China’s aggressive behavior and excessive maritime claims, including the militarization of disputed islands. China and the Philippines have had multiple clashes, thankfully avoiding direct war like those seen in West Asia, given the unstable political climate in the region. However, there are concerns that this area would be among the first to see war  if the world order continues to collapse.

    The joint military drills are commonly conducted to improve communication between militaries, and this will feature bolstered support from the United States to the Philippines. Amid growing tensions with Beijing, Joe Biden promised last week to protect the Philippines from any attacks in the South China Sea during the first-ever joint summit with Manila and Tokyo. Currently, approximately 14 countries will observe the annual practice, including Japan, India, and countries from ASEAN and the EU. The military drills are going to showcase the readiness of the team to oppose China.

  • Role of the Philippines Domestic Politics in South China Sea Tensions

    Role of the Philippines Domestic Politics in South China Sea Tensions

    Steadfast foreign policies are instrumental in bolstering the strength and reputation of each country. The United States maintains a consistent foreign policy stance regardless of whether it is led by a Democratic or Republican administration. In many developed democratic nations, policies remain stable across different administrations. However, in some countries, changes in governments and issues in domestic politics lead to significant shifts in foreign policies. Countries with flawed democracies and highly corrupted politicians are often known for making rapid policy changes or shifts in views. They may shift foreign policies to quell the people’s discontent with the ruling government. These shifts may lean towards the United States, China, or India, but regardless, they have a substantial impact on the nation. While some outcomes may be positive, many occasions result in negative effects on the nation, and sometimes, the entire region is affected.

    The Philippines serves as a notable example of these political trends. It is a country where political dynasties, celebrities, and prominent families often wield significant influence over the political sphere, which is rife with corruption. The Philippines is traditionally allied with the United States and in contention with China over the disputed South China Sea. The Philippines and the People’s Republic of China are at odds over the Scarborough Shoal, the Spratly Islands, and the Camago and Malampaya gas reserves. However, China’s economic growth in the 2000s also impacted Philippine politics, leading to a shift in policies favoring China. The former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte, was accused of favoring China, deviating from the conventional strong alliance with the US. Allegations suggest that Duterte aided China in advancing its efforts in the South China Sea by forming an unofficial alliance with the country.

    Actually, a hornet’s nest was created by the purported “Gentleman’s Agreement” between China and the Philippines regarding the South China Sea during the previous Duterte administration. Harry Roque, a former presidential spokesman, contended that the unofficial agreement was designed to maintain the status quo in turbulent areas, such as the Second Thomas Shoal. The agreement was referred to as a “Disguised Surrender” of the nation’s sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone by retired Associate Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court. Many important figures requested an inquiry over this agreement. It was deemed “Treasonous” by Senator Ana Theresia Hontiveros, who also requested an investigation. The covenant purports to require Manila to promise not to transfer building supplies to support its outpost in the low-lying Second Thomas Shoal, which is a corroding beached ship. Opponents claim that it gives Beijing more leverage.

    It was clear that Duterte favored China by deviating from the conventional US-favored policy. Even though Duterte didn’t sever the US relationship, his closeness to China definitely affected the relationship with the US. The current president Bongbong Marcos, is shifting the policy back in favor of the US, which makes China more aggressive. Many believe that Marcos’s return to a policy favoring the United States is part of the growing tension between the current and previous presidents; their disagreement became apparent to the public. The “Gentleman’s Agreement” was withdrawn, but the sudden changes show how short-sighted Philippine foreign policy has become. Indeed, domestic politics are affecting the Philippines. A political alliance with Beijing in the previous government was undoubtedly in the interest of politicians, even though it is evident that China wants to increase its territory and does not share the Philippines ambitions. Politics also plays a role in the current movement towards the US. We can predict that there is a chance that the future president will alter these policies.

    Under the new president, it appears that the Philippines is heavily leaning on the United States; they have entered into numerous agreements with the United States, and Biden recently announced a commitment to protecting the Philippines along with Japan. It’s clear that there will be a warming of the relationship between the United States and the Philippines as the Chinese economy shows weakness, and there will be no switching. However, if the government fails to address the people’s issues, opposition may sometimes bring China back into the scenario. Nevertheless, it’s certain that Philippine politics contribute significantly to the country’s problems.

  • Manila Faces Humiliation Against China in the South China Sea

    Manila Faces Humiliation Against China in the South China Sea

    It is undeniably disheartening for the Philippines. In the waters of the South China Sea, a Chinese coast guard ship deployed a water cannon against a civilian Philippine vessel, a stark demonstration of power dynamics and a form of blatant bullying. The widespread dissemination of video clips depicting the incident has stirred strong emotions within the Philippines.

    According to official statements from the Philippines, China engaged in “dangerous maneuvers” that not only inflicted damage on vessels but also resulted in minor injuries to four Filipinos, posing a significant threat to lives. A thorough investigation by a Philippine national task force revealed that the ship’s windshield was shattered during the confrontation. In addition to this distressing incident, a Philippine coast guard vessel suffered minor structural damage in two separate collisions involving Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels.

    Escalating tensions in the South China Sea mark a heightening power struggle between the Philippines and China. The unfolding events transpired during a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre, a venerable World War II-era ship reconfigured to function as an outpost for a small Philippine troop contingent. Grounded in the shallow waters of Second Thomas Shoal since 1999, situated within the Spratly Islands, this aging vessel has now become a central and strategic focus in the ongoing dispute.

    The Philippine Armed Forces describe the rotation and reprovisioning of troops on the BRP Sierra Madre as a routine and essential task, vital for sustaining military forces in the West Philippine Sea and upholding a continuous Philippine presence within its exclusive economic zone. However, China doesn’t like this.

    Video footage from one of the incidents, shared by the Philippines, depicts its crew swiftly placing a buffer between two coast guard vessels on a collision course, while their Chinese counterparts document the event. China argues that its coastguards took necessary measures against a Philippine vessel, accusing it of “illegally intruding” into waters near Second Thomas Shoal.

    According to China, the Philippines deliberately provoked discord and engaged in malicious propaganda, consistently destabilizing peace and stability in the South China Sea, objectives solely pursued by China. Such behavior is viewed as a form of bullying against other nations, including Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. China’s territorial claims encroach upon the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

    The enduring challenges between the Philippines and China persist, partly fueled by robust support from the United States. Through various agreements, the Philippines and the USA have solidified their alliance, positioning the Philippines as the United States’ most reliable regional ally. This collaborative partnership has, to some degree, prevented conflicts from escalating to critical levels. In the event of a large-scale confrontation, the presence of the United States and Japan in the region holds the potential to forestall catastrophic outcomes, averting a scenario reminiscent of a global conflict akin to World War.

    Situated 118 miles (190km) off the Philippine island of Palawan, the disputed atoll lies within Manila’s exclusive economic zone, serving as a contentious focal point in the South China Sea. The Philippines consistently lodges accusations against Chinese vessels for engaging in aggressive attempts to impede resupply missions to the shoal. Analysts caution that escalating incidents heighten the risk of miscalculation, with the potential consequence of involving the United States—a significant ally of the Philippines—in a confrontation with Beijing.

    The Second Thomas Shoal, claimed by both China and the Philippines, faces overlapping claims from Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. This area, crucial for global trade and believed to hold substantial undersea oil and gas deposits, has been a central point of contention. A small Philippine marine and navy contingent stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, a stranded warship since the late 1990s, monitors the area. China has surrounded the shoal with coast guard, navy, and other vessels, hindering Filipino efforts to fortify the Sierra Madre.

    The Chinese coast guard contends that it took control measures against Philippine ships illegally intruding into waters near Ren’ai Reef (Second Thomas Shoal), accusing a Philippine ship of intentionally ramming a Chinese coast guard vessel. Longstanding tensions in the South China Sea were expected to be discussed at a summit of leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and their Australian counterparts in Melbourne, with the Philippines and Vietnam planning to express concerns over China’s escalating actions in the disputed waters.

    Despite a 2015 ruling by an international tribunal in The Hague, dismissing China’s claim to almost the entire South China Sea as legally baseless, China persists in asserting sovereignty over the region. The South China Sea serves as a vital global shipping route, facilitating trillions of dollars in trade annually, while also housing significant reserves of oil, natural gas, and abundant fisheries.

    The timing of the incident just ahead of an Asian leaders’ summit, where Beijing’s maritime aggression was expected to be discussed, adds an intriguing layer to the narrative. Responsibility for the event remains unclaimed, creating a murky backdrop. The task force strongly condemned China’s actions, characterizing them as “another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission.” They emphasized that such unprovoked acts not only put lives at risk but also caused injuries to Filipino individuals.

    In response to these developments, the Philippines took a diplomatic stance by summoning China’s deputy chief of mission to Manila, seeking clarification and addressing what was perceived as “aggressive actions” leading to the collision. Interestingly, the situation has not escalated further, and there is a hope that it will maintain a diplomatic course. The avoidance of an all-out war is crucial, as everyone seeks to assert their rights in the region without triggering a potentially disastrous conflict. It is reminiscent of a situation akin to a college bullying scenario, where posturing for dominance is prevalent, yet there is a shared understanding that a collapse into war would be detrimental for all parties involved.

  • The Philippines in Crisis: Unveiling the Escalating Political Feud and Its Toll on the State

    The Philippines in Crisis: Unveiling the Escalating Political Feud and Its Toll on the State

    The deepening conflict between the Philippines’ former President Rodrigo Duterte and Incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is steering the nation towards the edge of unprecedented turmoil. The confrontation between Duterte and Marcos Jr. surpasses ordinary political statements; it has evolved into a fracture with the capacity to split the nation, foreshadowing the specter of imminent civil unrest.

    The unexpected fallout between former allies Duterte and Marcos Jr. has left many bewildered. The once-unified coalition that propelled President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to a landslide victory in May 2022 is now unraveling, posing a threat to political stability in one of Asia’s rapidly growing economies. In the 2022 election, Marcos formed an alliance with Duterte’s daughter, Sara, who secured the position of vice-president. However, fractures in this political partnership have surfaced as Marcos deviates from his predecessor’s stances on anti-drugs and foreign policies. At the crux of this discord lies a fierce struggle for power. Duterte’s allegations center on Marcos Jr.’s purported ambitions to modify the constitution, specifically in relation to presidential term limits. Such a move, if proven true, raises concerns about a potential shift towards authoritarianism, echoing the era of Marcos Sr., the father of Marcos Jr.

    The haunting legacy of Marcos Sr.’s autocratic rule looms large over the Philippines, with memories of his oppressive regime, characterized by human rights abuses and economic mismanagement, still casting a shadow. The downfall of his authoritarian grip came during a popular uprising in the 1980s, prompting the establishment of the current constitution as a safeguard against the resurgence of dictatorial tendencies. Today, this constitutional fortress faces a critical test. Amidst this historical backdrop, the reported inclination of Marcos Jr. to amend the constitution raises concerns, given the Philippines’ tumultuous past. President Duterte’s resolute opposition is rooted in a profound fear of history repeating itself, with the nation confronting the unsettling prospect of renewed turmoil and division.

    While Marcos Jr. advocates for constitutional amendments under the banner of economic reform, skeptics perceive this as a thinly veiled maneuver to consolidate power. The potential economic benefits tied to relaxing restrictions on foreign investment spark apprehensions about potential compromises to democratic principles and social cohesion. At the heart of the dispute lies Marcos’s push for a constitutional overhaul in 1987, aiming to attract more foreign investors. However, suspicions within the Duterte camp suggest a more ominous motive: the perceived intent to extend Marcos’s stay in office, challenging the existing single, six-year term limit mandated by the nation’s constitution.

    In a sobering warning, Duterte expresses deep concerns that this growing schism may plunge the nation into a divisive and potentially violent era, drawing parallels to historical events involving the Marcos family. With a heartfelt plea, Duterte implores the armed forces and police to safeguard the constitution, underlining the gravity of a situation that transcends mere political discord. The emotional resonance of Duterte’s plea mirrors the magnitude of the crisis at hand, as the Philippines grapples with a constitutional quagmire propelled by a feud of epic proportions.

    While Sara Duterte has generally maintained a neutral stance amid the dispute between Marcos and her family, analysts caution that alterations to political provisions in the constitution could imperil her political future. Despite being a frontrunner in the 2022 presidential surveys, she aligned with Marcos to run as his vice president, and she is considered an early favorite for the 2028 election to succeed him.

    As per new reports things are getting more volatile. Duterte is now advocating for the secession of his home region, Mindanao, from the Philippines. This push for Mindanao’s independence stems from disagreements with Marcos over proposed changes to the constitution. While Marcos contends that constitutional amendments aim to facilitate foreign investments, Duterte accuses him of using these changes as a ploy to extend his stay in power.

    The 78-year-old former president has not only threatened to sever his native Mindanao region from the nation but has also drawn a stern warning from the country’s defense and security officials. In response to this recent fallout, simmering tensions between the two factions have become evident. The Philippine government is taking a resolute stance against any secession attempts, with a security official asserting their readiness to use “authority and forces” to prevent the division of the nation.

    National security adviser Eduardo Ano emphasized in a statement that any effort to secede, particularly recent calls related to Mindanao, would be met with decisive government force. Ano stressed that such attempts could undermine the progress made through the government’s peace deal with former separatist groups.

    Mindanao in Philippines map

    Mindanao’s tumultuous history is marred by prolonged violence and conflict as the government grapples with insurgents and extremists over the decades. This persistent instability has impeded economic development, resulting in widespread poverty in numerous villages. The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest rebel group in the region, had previously opted for peace, signing an agreement in 2014 that saw them relinquishing their pursuit of independence in exchange for increased autonomy in the Bangsamoro Muslim region.

    Despite the current tensions, Bangsamoro’s chief minister, Ahod Ebrahim, has reiterated a steadfast commitment to the peace agreement. Government peace process adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. has urged Filipinos to resist any calls for destabilization, emphasizing the crucial need for unity. Similarly, Philippine armed forces chief Romeo Brawner has instructed soldiers to remain united, loyal to the constitution, and obedient to the chain of command.

    Yet, should the political landscape further deteriorate, the looming threat of foreign investment withdrawal becomes increasingly pronounced amid the deepening polarization among the populace. Arsenio Balisacan, Marcos’s chief economic planner, echoes these apprehensions, underscoring that political instability has the potential to significantly impact the economy. Despite falling slightly below the government’s target last year, the Philippines achieved the fastest growth in Southeast Asia at an impressive 5.6%.

    Internationally, these disputes will undoubtedly resonate. Both Marcos and Duterte have showcased unique foreign policy orientations, with one forging closer ties to the United States and the other cultivating relationships with China. This expanding tug-of-war, intensifying with each passing day, carries repercussions not just for the Philippines but also for the wider region. Situated in the highly volatile South China Sea, the implications of this geopolitical struggle reverberate across an already precarious landscape.

  • Philippines-Vietnam Seascape: Marcos Paves the Way for Enhanced Maritime Cooperation

    Philippines-Vietnam Seascape: Marcos Paves the Way for Enhanced Maritime Cooperation

    Nestled in a corner of the Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea is the center of one of the biggest maritime disputes. Every country along its coast is involved in this complex geopolitical struggle. The main point of contention is China’s aggressive attempt to impose severe humiliation on its neighbors by gaining total control over the South China Sea. China’s narrative directly contradicts the territorial integrity of nations like the Philippines and Vietnam, which both have long coastlines along this disputed sea region. 

    The world economy heavily depends on the South China Sea. A staggering $3.4 trillion of the $16 trillion global maritime shipping industry passed through its seas in 2016. This vast territory, which is roughly 3,500,000 km2, is bordered to the north by South China, to the west by Vietnam, to the east by the islands of Taiwan and the Philippines, and to the south by the islands of Indonesia and Malaysia. The South China Sea Islands, which are made up of many archipelago clusters with hundreds of seamounts, islets, and small, uninhabited islands, are the center of conflicting sovereignty claims from various nations. Asia’s most potentially explosive source of conflict arises from these disagreements over the many names given to the islands and the sea. 

    In recent developments, the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is currently on a tour in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, for a crucial meeting aimed at fostering greater collaboration, particularly in the maritime domain. President Marcos announced that talks on maritime cooperation with Vietnam will be a cornerstone in establishing a strategic partnership between the two Southeast Asian nations. Prior to his departure for a two-day state visit to Hanoi, Marcos emphasized his commitment to enhancing this aspect, emphasizing the promotion of peace and stability in the region.

    During his visit, President Marcos is slated to engage with top officials from Vietnam, with a specific focus on agreements related to coastguard collaboration and rice supply. Given Vietnam’s significance as a major rice exporter and the Philippines being one of the world’s largest importers of rice, this collaboration holds strategic importance. It is anticipated that closer ties and collaboration will contribute to the formation of a strong alliance. With two-way trade exceeding US$7.8 billion last year, the trading relationship between Vietnam and the Philippines has become crucial for both nations, and further expansion is expected as their relationship deepens.

    President Marcos expressed optimism that his visit would elevate bilateral relations, ushering in a new era of friendship and cooperation. Beyond maritime affairs, discussions are anticipated to cover a broad spectrum, including trade, investment, education, tourism, and addressing regional as well as multilateral concerns.

    The historical roots of Philippines-Vietnam relations extend back for centuries. Following the conclusion of the Cold War, these relations witnessed a significant warming, despite Vietnam’s alignment with the Soviet Union and the Philippines’ affiliation with the United States during that era. Although territorial disputes over the Spratly Islands persist, involving Brunei, China, Malaysia, and Taiwan, recent bilateral ties have generally been characterized as amicable.

    Both nations disapprove of China’s nine-dash map, and they advocate for a multilateral diplomatic approach, considering the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as a mechanism for dispute resolution. Notably, Vietnam has been drawing closer to Europe and the U.S., prompting some experts to suggest that Vietnam is emerging as the new strategic partner for the West. This shift is not viewed favorably by China, leading to a deterioration in the relationship.

    As Vietnam becomes a more prominent ally of the U.S. in the region, the country seeks to foster stronger ties with Vietnam as part of its strategy to secure allies in the face of China’s increased influence in Southeast Asia. The recent visit by the President of the Philippines can be seen in the context of follow-ups to the visits by the U.S. and German presidents to Hanoi, indicating the intricate diplomatic dynamics at play in the region.

    It represents the optimal partnership that the U.S. seeks in the region to counter China’s aggression. Despite territorial disputes in the Spratlys, both nations consider each other diplomatic allies and members of ASEAN, averting potential military conflicts. Positioned strategically along a vital maritime route, these two countries can economically leverage the current Western sentiments of discontent towards China and potential future trade disputes. For both Vietnam and the Philippines, this situation presents both opportunities and risks concurrently.

  • Navigating Diplomacy: Marcos and Widodo Collaborate in the South China Sea

    Navigating Diplomacy: Marcos and Widodo Collaborate in the South China Sea

    During a recent meeting in Manila, Presidents Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines and Joko Widodo of Indonesia engaged in discussions concerning the latest developments in the South China Sea and strategies for enhancing regional cooperation. Given that both nations are archipelagos with numerous islands in the South China Sea, they play pivotal roles in managing tensions in the region.

    Following their bilateral meeting, Marcos characterised the discussions as “fruitful and honest,” underscoring the significance of regional developments, particularly the evolving scenario in the South China Sea. The heightened focus is seen as imperative to foster unity among nations and establish a collective front for negotiations and defence against China’s territorial claims.

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, expressed her government’s willingness to collaborate with other Southeast Asian countries in finalizing the long-awaited code of conduct for the South China Sea. Retno stated, “On the South China Sea, Indonesia is prepared to work together with all ASEAN member states, including the Philippines, to expedite the finalization of the Code of Conduct.” This commitment is made in consideration of the overlapping claims with China by several neighboring nations, including Indonesia.

    With the primary goal of fostering stability in the region, there is a strong emphasis on addressing conflicts in the South China Sea through diplomatic means, as highlighted by the collaborative endeavor to establish a Code of Conduct. The effort involves China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which have long sought to create a framework for negotiating the code of conduct—a concept initially proposed in 2002. Despite assurances from all parties to accelerate and expedite the process, progress has been notably slow.

    The “nine-dash line,” which China uses to demarcate its territorial claims on maps, encroaches on the exclusive economic zones of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam and stretches up to 1,500 km (900 miles) south of the Chinese mainland. There are still worries that China’s influence and interests in the region could cause conflicts among Southeast Asian countries, even after a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling invalidated most of China’s claims—a decision Beijing rejected. President Marcos addressed the need for more collaboration among ASEAN members, emphasizing that Indonesia and the Philippines both reaffirmed their adherence to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The legal foundation guiding all activity in seas and oceans is UNCLOS. 

    The necessity of bolstering cohesion and centrality within the Southeast Asian bloc was underscored by President Widodo. He said, “[We also agreed] for ASEAN to continue upholding the principles of international law and serving as a positive force for peace, stability, and prosperity.” Both presidents pushed for calm communication between all sides in the South China Sea in reaction to the increased tensions there, which were reported by the foreign ministers of ASEAN last month. Increased marine encounters in the disputed waterway have been a sign of the Philippines and China’s rising tensions in recent months. In light of conflicting territorial claims, maintaining regional security is complicated and difficult, as seen by the urgent need for diplomatic solutions. 

    Additionally, Manila and Jakarta decided to strengthen their border security cooperation. This cooperative endeavor entails hastening the rewrite of border patrol agreements and initiating talks to establish continental boundaries. The stability and security of the area are strengthened by this commitment.

    Although there have been territorial disputes in the South China Sea for millennia, there has been an increase in tension in recent years due to different geopolitical developments, Taiwan’s elections, and the United States’ deteriorating international ties. Southeast Asian countries’ ability to work together and overcome these obstacles will determine how this area and the world order develop in the future.