Tag: Russia

  • Russia Seems Unhappy with the US Flirting with Armenia

    Russia Seems Unhappy with the US Flirting with Armenia

    Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia continued to control the politics of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Eastern Europe. They cultivated and protected many authoritarian leaders in these regions and propagated anti-Western views. However, over the last decade, it has become evident that a new generation in these countries, free from Soviet nostalgia, desires better living standards and opportunities similar to those in the West. Consequently, the politics of many of these countries have shifted accordingly.

    Recognizing this change in sentiment, other parties began to seize the opportunity. The European Union has integrated parts of the former Soviet republics in Eastern Europe and is now extending its influence into the Caucasus. Meanwhile, Turkey is growing its presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus, all contributing to the weakening of Russia’s sphere of influence. The United States has played a significant role in altering the mindset of politicians through diplomatic talks, investment plans, and various other initiatives aimed at shaping public sentiment. Together, they have slowly begun to lift the Iron Curtain. 

    Armenia, a long-term ally of Russia with deep religious and political ties, also joined the race and is now looking towards the West. Despite its Russian-linked politics, the public mood in Armenia has shifted considerably, particularly after the loss of the war with Azerbaijan, which resulted in the loss of a significant Armenian territory tied to their heritage. This defeat has fueled anger within the country, with many believing that Russia, which was supposed to protect them, contributed to Azerbaijan’s victory. There is a widespread belief that a wealthier Azerbaijan received more preferential treatment from Russia, and some suspect that Russia betrayed them.

    As a result, Armenia has started cooperating with the United States. The US, a country with a large Armenian diaspora, is making efforts to align Armenia with Western and European partners. This time, the United States does not want to repeat the mistakes made in Ukraine, and as a first step, they are discussing military collaboration.

    A joint military exercise involving a small number of American and Armenian troops is taking place at a base in the suburbs of Yerevan. Naturally, this has sparked a paroxysm of rage in Moscow. The 11-day exercise, dubbed Eagle Partner, began on July 15 and aims to boost interoperability between the US and Armenia during peacekeeping and stability operations. It’s not the number of troops involved that’s drawing attention; It’s the timing and symbolism of the joint exercise. This exercise is a tangible measure of Armenia’s progress in its geopolitical pivot away from Russia.

    According to US Ambassador to Armenia Kristina Kvien, the US and Armenian troops are at the forefront of a crucial and rapidly growing relationship and partnership. Simultaneously, the Armenian media outlet Hetq reported that a resident adviser from the Pentagon will be attached to Armenia’s Ministry of Defense. The adviser’s specific duties and responsibilities have not been publicly disclosed. Additionally, the US and Armenia are actively exploring cooperation on constructing a new nuclear power plant in Armenia. These fascinating and significant developments from both sides highlight a promising and dynamic relationship.

    Regarding Armenia’s rapid embrace of the West, exemplified by the Eagle Partner exercise, the vitriol expressed by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova was notable. She characterized the presence of American forces in the Caucasus in alarming terms, alleging that the United States and NATO aimed to disrupt the fragile balance in the region and provoke conflict. She also asserted that Western countries are obsessively involving Armenia in various interactions in Transcaucasia.

    Zakharova’s comments indicate that the Kremlin is alarmed by the rapid erosion of its influence in Armenia and is concerned that an expanding US strategic presence in the region could impede the development of the North-South corridor, a developing trade network connecting Russia, Iran, and India. This corridor has been crucial in supporting the Kremlin’s efforts to evade sanctions and its military operations in Ukraine. Moscow may also worry that the US presence in the region will influence other countries and restive regions within Russia, such as Chechnya. Furthermore, if Armenia fully aligns with the West, Russia would face a significant power check from NATO.

    Russia still maintains some levers of influence in Armenia. Yerevan is economically dependent on Russian trade and natural gas supplies, and the Kremlin also maintains a military base in Gyumri that hosts a Russian brigade. However, Armenia recognizes that this is an opportune moment to explore other opportunities, as it doubts Russia’s willingness to support them in the event of a conflict with Azerbaijan or Turkey. Consequently, Armenia is increasingly turning towards the United States, even as it retains ties with Russia. Interestingly, just before Eagle Partner commenced, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Yerevan would withdraw from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. This suggests that the United States is winning Armenia’s heart as Russia becomes increasingly unattractive.

  • Why is Modi’s trip to Russia significant?

    Why is Modi’s trip to Russia significant?

    Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of the world’s largest democracy, has chosen Russia for his first bilateral meeting after securing a third term in last month’s general election. The two-day visit, which included informal discussions, photo sessions, dinners, diplomatic talks, and the awarding of the highest civilian honor to the Prime Minister, holds considerable geopolitical importance. This visit sends important signals to the West, particularly as Western countries stand united in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, albeit with less attention to the situation in Palestine.

    India has never aligned with any major power bloc since becoming a republic, its leaders, irrespective of their political affiliations, have always maintained a warm relationship with Russia. Narendra Modi, who has been in power for the past 10 years, continues this policy. Over the last decade, the United States and Western countries have attempted to draw India away from its traditional alliances and towards a grand democratic alliance in Asia, including the West and Japan. However, Modi’s recent actions demonstrate India’s steadfast stance despite the evolving Asian political landscape. Modi also stated that the visit, his first since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic, aimed to cement the “Bonds of Friendship” between the two countries. He later enthusiastically described Russia as India’s “All-weather friend and trusted ally”. 

    At Tuesday’s formal summit, Modi stated that he and Putin had covered everything from establishing new Indian embassies in Russia to enhancing trade cooperation. India’s significant imports of Russian oil, minerals, and arms, in exchange for Indian agricultural products, are crucial for sustaining the Russian economy amid stringent Western sanctions, alongside China. However, reports indicate that during informal discussions, Modi called for Russia’s withdrawal from the war and called for an end to the conflict.

    India and Russia anticipate enhanced cooperation as the North-South corridor becomes fully operational. India, with a market of 1.4 billion people and one of the world’s largest economies, presents significant opportunities for Russian businesses. Conversely, Russia offers a large and cost-effective option for Indian businesses seeking natural resources, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship. However, ethical concerns remain, as Modi’s visit was condemned by Ukraine, citing ongoing war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. Just hours before Modi arrived in Moscow, Russian airstrikes targeted Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital and other civilian sites, causing numerous casualties and prompting global condemnation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described it as “A devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy embracing the world’s most notorious criminal in Moscow on such a day”.

    But the situation extends beyond Ukraine. Asia is undergoing polarization, and two blocs are  formed. The superpowers are already teamed up. One side includes Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States. The other side consists of Russia, China, Iran, Kazakhstan, and North Korea. The stances of India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are crucial but not yet clearly defined. With significant investments and diplomatic talks, these blocs are aligning more countries with them. Vietnam will likely join the United States bloc, and Indonesia is expected to lean towards the Russian bloc. According to reports, India is also moving towards an alliance with Russia, which will be a significant blow to the U.S. bloc.

    The U.S. recognizes the importance of India and has not criticized it, instead praising India for directly calling on Putin to stop the war, which indicates the U.S. still has hope in India. Historically, the U.S. was aligned with Pakistan, while India was connected to the Soviet Union and Russia from its formation. However, over the last decade, as Pakistan was ousted from the U.S. plan, the U.S. began to consider India more seriously. During Trump’s tenure, the relationship flourished, and there were reports that India leaned toward the U.S. side while Pakistan moved toward an alliance with China and Russia.

    After Trump, due to poor handling of foreign relations, India began returning to Russia’s side again. This shift will not be easy for India, as India and China now have serious disputes and appear to be enemy countries, both of which are important to Russia. If any issue arises between India and China, Russia’s stance will be crucial, as both countries are important to Russia. If Russia favors China, it won’t take long for India to switch sides to the U.S., given India’s existing relationships with U.S. allies Japan and Israel.

    The importance Modi places on Putin and the significance Russia attributes to India is the message conveyed by the recent meeting of both leaders. However, the U.S. will not abandon its mission with India. For its plan in Asia, the U.S. cannot rely on the U.K. and France anymore, so it needs superpowers from Asia. India is valuable for the control of Asia, particularly for security against China. If the Republicans return to the U.S. presidency, they will likely attempt to revive the relationship with India. From Russia’s side, even though they may prefer China, they will remain connected to India and ensure India stays neutral.

  • What is the Future of Shanghai Cooperation?

    What is the Future of Shanghai Cooperation?

    Asia is undergoing accelerated bipolarization, with one pole represented by the United States and Japan, and the other shaped by Russia and China. Both teams are actively seeking to expand their influence. While the United States ramps up its efforts in the Asia-Pacific region, leaders from China, Russia, and countries in the global south are gathering in Kazakhstan for the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), often referred to as the “Asian NATO”. This summit is widely seen as part of China’s efforts to establish a “Multilateral” world order that challenges US dominance while aligning with the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia. The forum will test the “strategic partnership” between China and Russia as they compete for influence in Central Asia, amidst efforts by other countries to reduce Russian and Chinese hegemony in the region. Questions persist about the SCO’s ability to maintain its relevance amid ongoing conflicts of interest among its member states.

    The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), formed under the leadership of Russia and China in 2001, strives to promote cooperation in politics, economics, defense, and security among its member nations in the Eurasian region. SCO is recognized as the world’s largest regional organization by geographical area and population, encompassing approximately 80% of Eurasia’s land area and 40% of the global population. As of 2021, its combined GDP represented around 20% of the global GDP, featuring the second and fifth largest economies globally, making it a significant market and a resource-rich entity. Currently, there are 10 full members of the SCO, including Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus. Additionally, there are numerous observer states, dialogue partners, and guest attendees, together encompassing a significant portion of Asia. 

    In its early years, between 2001 and 2008, the SCO thrived in what could be considered its golden age, experiencing rapid development and establishing permanent bodies and ad hoc initiatives focused on economic and security issues. During this period, many anticipated that the organization would grow akin to the EU or NATO, posing a significant challenge to United States interests and global dominance. The annual meetings of the Council of Heads of State, the SCO’s principal decision-making body, often garnered attention in global newspapers, depicting the organization as a burgeoning bloc. The SCO operated efficiently, akin to the operational models of the European Union or NATO. Based in Beijing, China, the SCO Secretariat acts as the organization’s central executive body. It oversees the implementation of organizational decisions, prepares documents like declarations and agendas, manages the organization’s records, coordinates activities within the SCO’s framework, and disseminates information about SCO activities. 

    However, after a challenging period began, the weaknesses in decision-making within the SCO became apparent, especially in choosing both India and Pakistan, longstanding adversaries, as full members. This decision highlighted the contradictions in decision-making between China and Russia. These divergent interests led some parties to use the forum as a platform to criticize others. Tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as between India and China, became evident. The consistent neglect of annual SCO meetings by the Indian Prime Minister, including the latest one, underscored India’s waning interest in the organization. Pakistan, unlike the previous Imran Khan government, attempted to realign with the West, which may challenge the organization’s stability. Central Asia, historically and geographically bound to Russia and China, is also exploring economic interests with the United States and its satellite countries like South Korea.

    The 24th annual meeting is being held in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, starting from Tuesday. China’s President Xi Jinping arrived in Astana on Tuesday for the meeting and will also undertake state visits to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. More announcements are expected from Xi aimed at maintaining China’s control over mineral-rich Central Asia and preventing Western access to these countries. Xi and his Russian counterpart, President  Vladimir Putin, will convene for a crucial face-to-face meeting. However, a notable downside of the occasion is the absence of the Indian Prime Minister, while the Pakistani Prime Minister is in attendance.

    As India cherishes its relationship with Russia and aims to strengthen it further, they avoid working against cooperation and aligning with the West. However, India does not agree with China’s increased decision-making influence within organizations and their mutual conflicts over other interests. China prefers Pakistan, and both have adversarial relations with India. Currently, Russia cannot afford to conflict with China’s interests, making the SCO a challenging environment for India. As a result, the dreams of NATO and the EU seem distant now, and SCO’s relevance may not necessarily increase. It is likely that it will remain another formal organization with regular meetings, potentially failing to address its foundational interests and principles.

  • How the North – South Corridor is Saving Russia?

    How the North – South Corridor is Saving Russia?

    While Russia lost its major markets in Europe and the United States following the Ukraine war, everyone predicted that Russia would suffer; at least, Biden believed so. But after two years of war, the Russian economy has not suffered as predicted and is not ready to cease its war in Ukraine. Even though the Russian economy has been blocked from the international financial system, it is slowly getting back on track despite the sanctions remaining in place.

    How is this possible? The two big markets, China and India, the second and fifth largest economies respectively, with more than a billion people each, along with satellite countries, including Iran, are keeping the Russian economy relatively unaffected by US sanctions. As the war shows no signs of ending soon, Russia is strengthening its relationships with these countries. The trade routes between China and India are becoming more streamlined thanks to government efforts to ensure a smooth flow of goods and link their economies.

    With China, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the Silk Road, provides good connectivity and facilitates smooth trade. However, with India, which is not part of the BRI and does not have a good relationship with China, there are issues with trade due to infrastructure limitations. To address this issue, Russia and India are working on improving infrastructure. The International North–South Transport Corridor, a 7,200-km-long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road routes for transporting freight stretching between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Central Asia, is integral to these efforts. Russia and India are making significant investments to link up with each other and these countries to facilitate smoother trade, and these efforts are starting to show promising results.

    Trade along the North-South corridor is off to a strong start in 2024, a boon and relief for the Kremlin. The route received a significant boost from a jump in Russian trade turnover with Iran. During the first quarter of this year, trade turnover between Russia and Iran grew by 48 percent compared to the same period in 2023, a year in which overall commerce between the two countries lagged. While trade increased between Russia and Iran, it decreased by 6 percent year-on-year between Russia and Azerbaijan during the first four months of 2024. Meanwhile, turnover between Russia and India, the countries at each end of the network of road, rail, and sea links, set a new quarterly value record during the first three months of this year, totaling about $17.5 billion, Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency reported.

    As the total trade balance with export country China is not beneficial for the Russian economy in the long term, the trade balance with Iran and India is expected to be more advantageous for Russia in the long run. The North South transport corridor avoids the conventional route that passes through many countries with U.S. involvement and is expected to grow as infrastructure development flourishes. The route, passing through Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, and India, connects major cities such as Mumbai, Moscow, Tehran, Baku, Bandar Abbas, Astrakhan, and Bandar Anzali, which is expected to boost the economies of these cities as well. This new route is anticipated to significantly reduce costs in terms of time and money compared to the traditional route currently being used.

    In early June, Russian leader Vladimir Putin praised the North-South trade network as a more efficient international trade route compared to the Suez Canal. Intent on maintaining growth momentum, Putin recently approved an agreement on free trade between members of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and Iran. Beyond laying the groundwork for new infrastructure and improved logistics, the TASS news service reported that the pact could save Russian exporters up to $300 million in export duties and other costs. On June 16, Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran announced the creation of a working group to improve logistics arrangements along the North-South route, TASS also reported.

    India, a populous country and one of the fastest-growing economies, which has high demand for Russian oil and natural gas, is also looking to invest in speeding up the linking process. Last year, Indian Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar stated that the North-South corridor is one of India’s top priorities. During a state visit to Turkmenistan, Prime Minister Modi, recognizing Turkmenistan’s natural gas wealth, formally invited the country to become a member of the project. He proposed that Turkmenistan become a member of the International North-South Transport Corridor. The interest of India is clearly visible. The North-South corridor project is of interest to everyone.

    While the United States is doing its best to reduce Central Asia’s dependence on Russian dominance by offering trade benefits to these countries, Russia knows that it must invest more to maintain its influence in the region. They also work towards fostering more cooperation between China and India. Russia is well aware of the importance of China and India for its future and understands how the US can exploit disputes between these countries.  Russia and Iran, along with their allies, are highly capable of challenging the sanctions imposed by the US. If these countries further unite to form an effective trade bloc, it would deal a significant blow to the West.

  • Is Vietnam Truly Reliable for the West?

    Is Vietnam Truly Reliable for the West?

    Vietnam, the Southeast Asian communist country and birthplace of communist legend Ho Chi Minh, is known for its complex foreign relationships. Despite its communist single-party system and historical ties with the Soviet Union, Vietnam joined the non-aligned movement in 1976. Today, Vietnam is considered a friendly country in Asia by both Europe and the United States, who view it as a potential counterbalance to China in South China Sea disputes. Vietnam skillfully maintains good relations with other communist nations while being seen as a potential ally of the West in the region, engaging in significant diplomatic discussions and attracting European investments. However, Vietnam’s policy of non-alignment still causes confusion, especially following recent receptions of Western pariah Vladimir Putin and its ongoing ties with Russia.

    Vladimir Putin’s visit to Hanoi is aimed at reaffirming Russia’s importance in the region and maintaining its relationship with the country. The Russian president landed at Hanoi airport on Thursday following a significant visit to North Korea. President Putin was greeted on the red carpet by Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha and top party diplomat Le Hoai Trung. Russia and Vietnam pledged to enhance their relationship. However, there are no reports that important military trade and aid agreements will be signed as they were in Pyongyang. Speaking to the press in Vietnam after his two-day visit to North Korea, Putin mentioned the possibility of providing high-precision weapons to North Korea and criticized NATO for posing a security threat to Russia in Asia. The increasing U.S. presence in Asia has become a significant concern for Russia. Meanwhile, the United States is forging more relationships in Asia, leading to shifts among traditionally Russian-aligned countries like India and Vietnam toward the West.

    The Vietnamese president, To Lam, had earlier stated that his country and Russia aimed to enhance cooperation in defense and security, addressing non-traditional security challenges based on international law, for Regional and global peace and security. Lam and Putin signed 11 memorandums for cooperation in areas including civil nuclear projects, energy and petroleum cooperation, education, and disease prevention. Putin informed reporters that the talks were constructive and that both sides held “Identical or very close” positions on key international issues. In an opinion piece published in Vietnam’s Communist Party newspaper Nhan Dan to coincide with his visit, Putin listed progress on payments, energy, and trade between the countries, and commended Vietnam for supporting “A pragmatic way to solve the crisis” in Ukraine. 

    The outcoming statements and warm relationships with these two countries cast doubt on recent reports about Vietnam’s shift to the West. When U.S. President Biden visited the country, reports emerged suggesting that Vietnam, facing several disputes with China, was getting closer to the West and would join the bloc of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Australia in opposing China’s dominance in the region. Visits by Vietnamese Communist Party leaders to Western countries and policy changes favoring business and investment have supported this view. However, Vietnam has repeatedly abstained from UN General Assembly votes relating to Russia’s war in Ukraine, despite its strong relationship with Europe. This suggests that while Vietnam may need the economic support of the West, the communist country cannot fully align with the West, positioning itself as a smaller version of China.

    Vietnam’s leadership favors a so-called “Bamboo Diplomacy”, which sways with the winds and avoids picking sides in international disputes, including those involving Ukraine and the rivalry between the US and China. There is no doubt that Russia has a longstanding friendship with Vietnam, as many still remember the support the Soviet Union provided during past wars against the French and the US. The former Soviet Union was one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with Ho Chi Minh’s Vietnamese government.

    However, the economy is the most potent weapon in the 21st century. Russia is not a major trade partner for Vietnam, and international sanctions have weakened Russia. The US, UK, and the European Union all announced new sanctions over the past week. Therefore, for the sake of its economy, Vietnam needs to make decisions in favor of the West. Trade between Vietnam and Russia amounted to just $3.5 billion in 2022, compared to Vietnam’s $175 billion trade with China and $123 billion with the US. More than Russia and China, the US is now crucial for Vietnam. A spokesperson for the US embassy in Hanoi warned before Putin’s visit that “No country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalize his atrocities”, and highlighted Putin’s international crimes. Although the likelihood of the US taking strong actions against Vietnam is low, given Vietnam’s importance in potential tensions with China, Vietnam, now mimicking China in the early 2000s, will need the economic support of Western countries. However, its communist government may struggle to maintain these relationships in the long term.

  • Is Kazakhstan Imitating Russia by Targeting Critics

    Is Kazakhstan Imitating Russia by Targeting Critics

    Kazakhstan, often referred to as “Junior Russia”, is the second largest republic in the former Soviet Union and remains closely aligned with Russia. Kazakhstan politics are deeply intertwined with Russian politics. While the European  Russosphere countries are increasingly shifting towards the West and adopting an anti-Putin stance, Kazakhstan is not yet ready to feel this wind of change. Until now, Kazakhstan’s politics have been considered flawed, potentially placing it among a list of countries with poor democratic practices. This flawed democracy could also be seen as a binding factor between Russia and Kazakhstan. Politicians of both countries need each other to cover their undemocratic democracies. None of Kazakhstan’s elections have met Western standards for fairness; issues include ballot tampering, multiple voting, harassment of opposition candidates, and press censorship. Similar to Russia, political party winners can often be predicted early, and genuine opposition voices are not tolerated in the country. Wait, it’s all about Kazakhstan, not Russia; the similarities may indeed be genuine.

    Kazakhstan is also known for targeting critics of the regime, similar to Russia. Numerous incidents have been reported, including the recent attempted killing of Aydos Sadykov, a Kazakh opposition figure and prominent blogger with over 1 million subscribers on YouTube. Sadykov, who operates the YouTube channel named “ Base” and was granted asylum in Ukraine in 2014, was shot near his home. He has been wanted in Kazakhstan since last year. Sadykov and his wife jointly run the popular opposition social media channel in Kazakhstan, known for its strong criticism of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

    According to Natalya Sadykov, while driving into their apartment building’s courtyard on June 18 afternoon, her husband Sadykov was shot by a man wielding a pistol while seated in the driver’s seat of their car. Ukrainian police released a photo of a dark-colored vehicle with a shattered driver’s side window, stating that the search for the attacker was ongoing. Kyiv officials announced the initiation of an investigation, stating: “Preliminary information suggests that an unidentified individual approached the car containing the victim and his wife, fired a gunshot at the man, and then escaped”. Sadykov is currently in hospital in bad condition. They added that law enforcement is taking steps to identify the assailant. Sadykova later mentioned that her husband underwent surgery and remains in serious condition. She requested prayers for his recovery. She also accused President Tokayev of orchestrating the assassination.

    Sadykov was targeted by the Kazakhstani government, akin to Russia’s pursuit of Alexey Navalny. Last October, Kazakh authorities placed the Sadykovs on a wanted list, accusing them of engaging in criminally unlawful conduct by “Inciting Social Hatred”, a charge often expected from such regimes. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev condemned the attack on June 19, describing it as a “Serious Incident”. He emphasized that all societal conflicts and disagreements should be resolved lawfully and in accordance with international norms. Tokayev also expressed Kazakhstan’s readiness to assist Ukraine in identifying the perpetrators.

    Political analysts in Kazakhstan have offered differing views on the motives and consequences of the attempted murder. Dimash Alzhanov, a political scientist known for his critical stance against the government, suggested that news of the attack sends a significant signal to Kazakhstani society. He warned that such actions could backfire, exacerbating societal anger and deepening divisions. Alzhanov emphasized the importance of constructive dialogue over destructive tactics.

    Kazakhstan is actively working to improve its image in international communities and position itself as a hub for business, while also enhancing relationships with various countries. However, repeated incidents like these could tarnish its image and potentially lead to sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia. Despite recent efforts to open up internationally, Kazakhstan’s domestic politics have seen little change. These inconsistencies may hinder cooperation with the West.

  • Vladimir Putin bolsters his relationship with North Korea

    Vladimir Putin bolsters his relationship with North Korea

    There are only a few countries left in the world that Russian President Vladimir Putin can visit without fearing arrest due to the ICC’s warrant against him. North Korea, a traditional ally of Russia, is among them. North Korea remains steadfast in its relationship with Russia while becoming increasingly isolated from the West. As the war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending, Russian munitions are failing to hit their targets, and Russia is even relying on soldiers, mostly trafficked from South Asia. In this situation, the relationship with North Korea will be mutually beneficial. North Korea, known to possess nuclear weapons and to have displayed various other dangerous weapons before, is causing concerns in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea regard North Korea as a dangerous enemy and are on high alert due to the growing relationship between Putin and Kim.

    Vladimir Putin has arrived in North Korea for an important summit with Kim Jong-un, according to sources. Making his first visit to the reclusive country since 2000, the Russian president flew to Pyongyang early on Wednesday and was greeted by huge welcome banners and Russian flags, as reported by Russian state media. His plane touched down in Pyongyang at about 2:45 am local time after a stopover in Russia’s far east. Putin and Kim held a brief meeting shortly after his arrival and are scheduled to meet again on Wednesday to sign agreements aimed at deepening their relationship, which has significantly strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

    Kim is not involved in the Russia-Ukraine war but has expressed support for Russia. Some Western media have reported that they have already provided munitions to Russia. The US and South Korea assert they have evidence that North Korea has supplied Russia with dozens of ballistic missiles and over 11,000 containers of munitions for use in Ukraine. They have also highlighted evidence of Korean-made artillery in Ukraine. However, both Russia and North Korea have denied these allegations. North Korea could provide more to Russia with ongoing supplies of artillery, guided rockets for multiple rocket launchers, and short-range missiles to support its operations in Ukraine. Kim, who met Putin in the Russian Pacific city of Vladivostok during a week-long visit to Russia last September, is among the few world leaders to have expressed unequivocal support for the war. Putin has described the pair as “comrades-in-arms” against Western attempts to isolate them through sanctions.

    North Korea is highly reliant on Russia, who has closed all relationships with the world and is only open to Russia and China. Both countries support the communist regime in North Korea, so welcoming Putin isn’t merely ceremonial; without support from Russia, North Korea can maneuver independently. However, for Russia, the president’s visit signifies more than symbolic gestures; it entails securing deals and ensuring continued support from North Korea to maintain a hassle-free eastern border. The vast eastern part of the elongated country is distant from Moscow, and any signs of Russia’s weakness could lead to trouble in this region. Therefore, maintaining a militarily strong ally in the east is crucial for Korea. Perhaps Putin’s first visit to the country in 24 years is driven by Russia’s insecurities. Currently, it appears that Russia is favoring North Korea more. Putin has even praised Kim for defying UN Security Council sanctions, measures that Moscow had supported until recently, aimed at curbing his regime’s nuclear ambitions.

    North Korea’s state KCNA news agency said Putin’s visit proves that ties between the two countries “are getting stronger day by day” and would lend “fresh vitality to the development of good-neighborly cooperative relations between the two countries”. However, the media in South Korea, Japan, and the West raised concerns. The US expressed concern that the visit could impact security in Ukraine and on the Korean peninsula, which has recently experienced tension along the heavily fortified border separating North and South Korea since the end of the notorious Korean War.

    Putin’s trip showed he was “Dependent” on authoritarian leaders. North Korea, Iran, and China are the closest friends and biggest supporters of the Russian war effort. The Russian government is now taking all steps to bolster these relationships. The Russian delegation to Pyongyang is said to include Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the heads of the Russian space agency and railways, and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is Putin’s key representative for energy. Putin’s North Korean hosts have not released any details of his itinerary. However, according to Russia’s Interfax news agency, the visit will feature one-on-one discussions between Putin and Kim, a gala concert, a state reception, honor guards, document signings, and a statement to the media.

  • Significance of Putin’s Visit to China

    Significance of Putin’s Visit to China

    Russia and China, once the fighting communist brothers, now appear to be in a great relationship. The bond between Moscow and Beijing has reached unprecedented levels. Both Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping celebrated their “no-limits” friendship, recognizing it as a counterbalance to the global influence of the US. This partnership is becoming stronger as the Biden administration seeks to isolate Russia from its Chinese lifeline following the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. While Russia increases its attacks in Ukraine and the United States increasingly expands into the Russosphere, President Vladimir Putin has arrived once again in Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, as he seeks to showcase the enduring strength of the relationship and engage in further discussions with Chinese authorities. It is Putin’s second visit to Beijing in less than a year, the first after he took his fresh term, and the visit will also commemorate 75 years since the Soviet Union recognized the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

    Even Though, there are alot security issues to discuss, Experts believe business and the economy will be the main topics of discussion in Putin’s meeting with Xi. The two sides will be seeking ways to quietly circumvent US restrictions that have led to a decrease in Chinese exports to Russia following a post-war boom in both consumer products and dual-use goods, which have been crucial to the Russian war machine in Ukraine. China’s major banks are throttling payments out of concern over US sanctions, prompting Russia to propose a solution to the issue through a decentralized payment system that the West would be unable to track. Both sides will seek mechanisms that are immune to sanctions in the future. China officially opposes US sanctions, but in reality, banks and companies often find ways to comply to avoid encountering blowback from the US or being blocked from US dollar payments. Russia also aims to confront the decline in its gas exports, which have sharply dropped since its invasion of Ukraine, causing record losses for Gazprom, formerly the nation’s most profitable company. However, observers question whether Moscow and Beijing will be able to finalize an agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a long-anticipated project that would supply China with Russian gas. Putin is bringing an expanded team of advisers and industry leaders to Beijing; the team includes a number of seasoned technocrats whom he has dubbed the Russian “A-Team”.

    Putin’s relationship with Xi first took shape in May 2014 when the Russian leader traveled to Beijing for a two-day state visit to discuss a major gas supply deal. The visit occurred shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, resulting in Moscow being isolated by many Western countries. Xi promptly returned the favor by visiting Moscow and sitting alongside Putin during the city’s Victory Parade, an event boycotted by Western leaders as Russian-backed rebels seized territory in eastern Ukraine. Weeks before Putin sent his troops to invade Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian leader flew to Beijing where the two leaders famously celebrated their “no-limits” friendship. In an unmistakable show of support for Putin after his decision to invade Ukraine, Xi traveled to Moscow in the spring of 2023. For all the favors China does for Russia, in return, China gained a strong ally, as they have no more powerful allies. Xi praised Putin as his “best friend,” and many deals were signed between Russia and China. Russia provided China with oil and natural gas at a cheap rate and opened up the markets of Russia and Central Asian countries to China, which was an important move for China as they are losing European, American, and Indian markets. The United States responded fiercely. With tariffs raised by Trump, the Biden administration unveiled tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports last Tuesday. Tariffs were extended or introduced on a range of strategic sectors, including solar panels, electric vehicles, and semiconductors. On electric vehicles, rates were hiked from 25% to 100%, a situation that can pull them out of the flourishing market. 

    The Russian leader’s two-day trip to China comes as his country’s forces have pressed an offensive in northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, which began last week, marking the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began. Russia, which has signaled it is unwilling to abandon the war, will become increasingly dependent on China as a trade partner and as a key diplomatic ally in its deepening conflict with the West. Tensions in the South China Sea, increasing blocs in East Asia, and Central Asia’s recent lean towards the United States, and possibly Gaza, will be additional talking points. However, the primary objective of this meeting will be to prove their friendship to each other and demonstrate it to their enemies.

  • How will Xi’s visit to Hungary influence Europe?

    How will Xi’s visit to Hungary influence Europe?

    Hungary, the central European state, which frequently criticizes Europe and maintains warm relations with Russia, was said to be a Trojan horse to Europe by international media. The country, with a conservative government under the leadership of Viktor Orban, has kept a closer relationship with Putin than with any other western leaders. Many expect this country will join the pole under the leadership of China and Russia. Both Chinese and Russian governments are keen to maintain their relationship with Hungary, their sole ally in the European Union. China, who is losing the European market gradually, is investing a lot of money in Hungary to keep their business in the European market through Hungary. Many officials from both countries are flying in both directions to advance this objective. Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hungary, and it is considered to further bolster the relationship between China and Hungary, strengthening their economic collaboration, which leaves many doubts in the European union.

    Xi’s visit to Hungary is part of the recently concluded Eurotrip, which was his first European tour in five years. Xi arrived in Hungary late on Wednesday after stops in Serbia and France, and he was given a ceremonial welcome by Hungary’s president, Tamás Sulyok, at Buda Castle in Budapest. Xi was also met by the controversial Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the airport. The Hungarian prime minister, the EU’s longest-serving leader, has sought to deepen ties with Beijing and Moscow and blocked EU motions criticizing China’s human rights abuses. After their meeting, the Chinese state media agency Xinhua reported that China and Hungary had decided to elevate their ties to an “All-weather comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era”. Orbán mentioned that the two countries were planning to broaden their collaboration across all aspects, including the nuclear industry. In a major departure from the European mainstream, the Hungarian prime minister said he supported China’s “Peace Plan” for Ukraine. While Western leaders have criticized the Chinese peace plan, known as the 12-point plan, published in 2023, because it does not call on Russia to withdraw its forces or return territory, the biggest demand of Ukraine and Europe.

    The rapport between Europe and China has significantly worsened in recent years. In 2019, the EU labeled China as “A Systemic Rival,” and just last year, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized the necessity for Europe to “De-risk” its ties with Beijing. This involves, in part, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains. It’s visible that the trends of European countries withdrawing from Chinese investment, and Europe is said to be working to shift the global manufacturing hub from China. The increasing calls for “Make in Europe” were disrupted by China and their “Unfair” market strategies, including subsidies. European agencies are conducting investigations against Chinese businesses, and the relationship between Europe and China is at an all-time low in the 21st century. However, Hungary, which is marking 75 years of diplomatic relations with Beijing, has distanced itself from the EU strategy. They continue their warm relationship with China and keep their doors open for Chinese business. In return, the central European country has received billions in Chinese investment and hosts Huawei’s largest base outside China. BYD, a prominent Chinese automaker, is preparing to inaugurate its first production line for battery-powered cars in Europe, located in Szeged, Hungary. This initiative presents a considerable challenge for European companies operating at the core of Europe. Interestingly, one of the main causes for dispute between China and Europe is China’s interest in the European EV market, which can be dominated by the cheap EV cars of China. According to statements reported by China’s state news agency, Xinhua, Xi declared that the relationship between China and Hungary is now at its strongest point in history.

    The countries chosen for Xi’s Eurotrip are interesting. France has a neutral relationship with China, while Serbia and Hungary, two European countries, have strong relationships with China. This proves the political importance of the trip. Serbia has long supported China’s claim on Taiwan and has Beijing’s support for its claim to Kosovo. Although Serbia is not a member of the European Union and doesn’t have much influence in the European market, the agreements with the European Union’s member, Hungary, will impact European politics and the European market. Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, has stated that 16-18 cooperation agreements would be signed during Xi’s visit, one of which could be a large-scale infrastructure scheme within China’s vast Belt and Road project. These agreements will further strengthen the relationship and maintain China’s ties with Europe and their foothold in the European market.

  • Impact of Biden’s Xenophobia Comment on Asian Politics

    Impact of Biden’s Xenophobia Comment on Asian Politics

    The United States Presidential race is heating up. President Joe Biden, appearing aged and sluggish, intends to seek another term for the presidential role. The Democrat, known for his pro-migration stance, consistently supports and welcomes immigrants. Biden’s recent comment favoring the country’s migration policy, in comparison with Asia, is emerging as a controversial topic in the political sphere. At last week’s event to raise funds for his 2024 re-election campaign, Biden remarked that their welcoming stance towards immigrants was a contributing factor to their growth of the economy. He proceeded with the economic struggles of China, Japan, Russia, and India, attributing them to their xenophobic reluctance to accept immigrants. Biden underscored the strength immigrants bring to a nation, but with negative comments on rivals China and Russia, and interestingly towards Japan and India. Such a seemingly casual remark from a seasoned politician has the potential to impact foreign relationships badly.

    Biden’s comments against Asian countries’ xenophobia, were only meant to target Trump’s policies, but they made news in the Asian political landscape. Despite Russia, China, and India being multi-ethnic countries historically welcoming foreigners, their immigration policies do not resemble those of the United States or Western countries today. These countries’ stringent immigration laws and high population numbers coupled with a low job market, make them unattractive destinations for migration. These countries have significant multi-ethnic cities, such as Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Moscow, but small cities and villages usually don’t have that multi ethnic color. Though these countries’ populations and religions are generally open to foreigners, their politicians often run campaigns against immigrants. The stringent regulations are directly linked with politics. The countries are notorious for campaigns against the US, and which is often referred to as Xenophobia. But the comments against these countries by Biden, used by politicians in these countries, are being used to further escalate anti-American sentiments. However, mentioning Japan in the comment, a staunch ally of the United States, adds an intriguing dimension to the discussion.

    Japan is more notorious for xenophobia than other countries in Biden’s comment, and historically, this trait has been visible in Japanese society. The nation, which prides itself on its homogeneity, has long been hesitant about immigration. However, its falling birth rate and rapidly aging population point to an acute labor shortage in the coming decades. Many experts believe that Japan’s lagging economy is a result of its strict regulations on immigration. In the case of Japan, Biden’s comment is actually true. However, Making a negative comment on Japan alongside comments about enemy nations is a blow for Japan. Japan has been described as “Regrettable”, the top government spokesperson said on Tuesday. Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, Yoshimasa Hayashi informed at a scheduled regular news conference that representations had been lodged with the United States. These representations indicated that the comment was not based on the correct understanding of Japan’s migration policy and was regrettable. Japan’s ties with its security ally, the United States, remain solid. Nevertheless, this type of comment will definitely affect people’s mood.

    Only a few weeks before, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Washington for a summit with Biden and unveiled plans for military cooperation and projects ranging from missiles to moon landings to strengthen ties with an eye toward countering China and Russia. At this time, mentioning Japan was an unnecessary move by Biden. At Least it doesn’t need  to be criticized along with the enemy states. China and Russia already have strained connections with America. Regarding India, they were moved towards the direction of the U.S. during Trump. But, Biden’s comment has already made headlines in India, and it could worsen the relationship. This is certainly a blunder by Biden at a time when strong alliances with Japan and India are needed to counter the growing influence of China and Russia in the continent. While Trump was accused by Biden of damaging foreign relations, Biden’s actions may be causing even more harm to the United States’ foreign relationships.