Tag: Thailand

  • Will China Push the Thai Land Bridge Project to Reality?

    Will China Push the Thai Land Bridge Project to Reality?

    China’s interest in the Indian Ocean is as strong as its interest in the South China Sea. The Indian Ocean connects China to Europe, the Middle East, and its future key market, Africa. However, China’s route to the Indian Ocean is increasingly threatened, as it relies on major U.S. allies in the region – Singapore and Malaysia, along with Indonesia, which share the Malacca Strait. This narrow passage connects the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. Interestingly, at the entrance of the Malacca Strait, India is establishing a strategic presence by building a port city, effectively positioning itself as a gatekeeper for this vital route.

    In this context, the discussion of the Thai Land Bridge Project has resurfaced as an alternative passage that connects the Gulf of Thailand, part of the South China Sea, with the Andaman Sea, part of the Indian Ocean. The project promises to reduce distance and costs for ships navigating traditionally congested routes. For China, it offers greater access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing Singapore and U.S.-controlled gates. For Thailand, the project could bring significant economic benefits, boosting its wealth and positioning it as a leading player in Southeast Asia, potentially diminishing the strategic importance of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore.

    The revived Kra Canal project, now known as the Land Bridge Project, proposes an alternative to digging a canal similar to the Panama Canal through the Kra Isthmus, the narrowest part of the Malay Peninsula. Instead, it plans to build two deep-sea ports in Ranong and Chumphon provinces. These ports would be connected by 90 kilometers of highways, railways, and pipelines across the Kra Isthmus. The project requires substantial investment, time, and engineering. China, with its engineering capabilities and funding, is well-positioned to support the project. The Land Bridge Project has gained renewed enthusiasm for its expected boost to the southern Thai economy. And The passage would alleviate some of the congestion in the Malacca Strait, a crucial transport route for a significant portion of China’s crude oil imports from the Middle East and raw materials from Africa, with approximately 94,000 ships passing through or using its 40-plus ports each year.

    As political events in Thailand unfold and the gap between the royal-backed government and the public widens, it is anticipated that the new Thai Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, from a prominent political family with royal support, will take extensive measures to gain public support. The Thai government under Paetongtarn is expected to pursue large infrastructure projects to enhance her public image and contribute to Thailand’s economy. It is also clear that Paetongtarn is likely to continue her predecessors’ efforts to strengthen economic ties with Beijing. Therefore, the current political climate in Thailand appears favorable for China to intervene and advance the project.

    The Thai government is seeking financing for a project estimated to cost at least $28.6 billion. The Bangkok Post reported last October that the state-owned China Harbour Engineering Co was considering a contribution, according to the Thai government. Additionally, Hong Kong property developer New World Development has shown interest. Without the government’s push for the project, contractors may not need to appear immediately, so it is important to consider that China is taking it seriously. However, challenges may arise at the administrative level, even if China supports the project. China would likely seek a favorable deal similar to other Belt and Road Initiative projects, while stakeholders from Bangkok to Washington may question it. But It is clear that Thailand’s ambitious project will not advance without Chinese assistance. If China invests some money, it stands to gain significant political, economic, and strategic benefits.

  • Thailand Gets a New Prime Minister From an Influential Political Dynasty

    Thailand Gets a New Prime Minister From an Influential Political Dynasty

    Amid turbulent times in Thai politics, Thailand has appointed a new, young, and inexperienced prime minister from a very influential political dynasty. With political power largely removed from the hands of the people and focused on preserving the constitutional monarchy, the situation became more complicated after the constitutional court ousted the previous prime minister, Srettha, on dubious charges. In response, the remaining politicians, after various bans in the legislative assembly, acted rapidly under the leadership of billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to prevent division and military rule. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, has now been chosen as Thailand’s next prime minister after securing enough support from lawmakers.

    Paetongtarn, 37, the youngest of three children of the controversial political figure Thaksin Shinawatra, will become Thailand’s youngest and only the second female prime minister. Her appointment on Friday followed 24 hours of intense negotiations. Speaking on Thursday after being named Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate, Paetongtarn expressed her respect for the ousted Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, acknowledging the unfortunate circumstances of his departure and emphasizing the need for the country to progress. However, analysts are skeptical, suggesting that her appointment may have been orchestrated by authorities and the Thaksin family. The Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, won the last general election but was subsequently banned by authorities due to its reformist stance. Despite the court’s decision to finalize the ban, the public remains supportive of MFP. By allowing Thaksin’s return, authorities hoped to mitigate public discontent. Young charming woman leader is definitely a good choice to deliver this hope.  Paetongtarn played a significant role in Pheu Thai’s election campaign, leveraging her family’s popularity among older rural voters in the north and northeast. Although her party finished second in the election behind Pita’s Move Forward Party, she did not run for prime minister last year. According to power brokers, she may now be ready for the role.

    Paetongtarn is the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to become prime minister, underscoring the family’s significant influence in Thai politics. However, she faces the challenge of leading a country that has moved beyond her father’s era. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006 before being ousted in a coup. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, was briefly prime minister in 2008, and his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, held the position from 2011 to 2014, both being forced from office by court rulings. Following his political setbacks, Thaksin went into self-imposed exile that stretched 15 years to avoid imprisonment and returned only recently. Many believe that through Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s influence will continue to shape the country’s leadership.

    Despite being Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn must prove herself as she takes office amidst significant political instability. Lacking prior government experience, she needed to secure 247 votes from the 493 members of parliament for confirmation. Although she achieved this, her tenure remains uncertain, and she could be dismissed at any moment, similar to her predecessors and other family members. Additionally, she faces challenges not only from the authorities but also from reformists who may form new parties and leadership to gain significant public support. Paetongtarn is in for a challenging journey ahead.

  • Thailand’s Political Drama Seeks New Actor for Prime Minister Role

    Thailand’s Political Drama Seeks New Actor for Prime Minister Role

    Thailand’s constitutional monarchy is viewed by observers as an ongoing political drama full of twists and turns. In the latest episode, the caretaker government’s prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, was ousted by the court for breaching ethical standards. This occurred just days after the constitutional court issued a high-profile verdict banning the political party and leaders who won the majority in the general election under lese-majeste laws.

    The coalition government was formed with the full support of royal establishments and authorities after overturning last year’s election results. This movement was backed by the courts, which effectively nullified the people’s verdict by law. The caretaker government, led by Srettha Thavisin, never garnered public support and is now facing a forced leadership change in an effort to regain public backing. The constitutional court ruled that Srettha had seriously violated ethical standards by appointing Thaksin’s former lawyer, Pichit Chuenban, to a cabinet position. Pichit was briefly imprisoned for contempt of court in 2008 over an unproven allegation of attempting to bribe court staff. Now, the leading party in the coalition, the Pheu Thai Party, has been tasked with finding a new prime minister.

    The Pheu Thai Party, a populist party lacking the reformist drive of Pita’s Move Forward Party, will convene on Thursday to select a successor for the ousted former prime minister, Srettha Thavisin. The party is working swiftly to strengthen its alliance ahead of a critical parliamentary vote on a new prime minister. Pheu Thai must choose between two candidates: Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney-general and justice minister, and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of controversial political figure Thaksin Shinawatra, who is also the party’s inexperienced leader.

    The constitutional court’s decision to dismiss Srettha on Wednesday not only dealt a significant blow to Pheu Thai but also to the political influence of the billionaire Shinawatra family, which has been at odds with Thailand’s powerful establishment and royalist military for two decades. Interestingly, Srettha is now the fourth premier from this movement to be ousted by a court ruling, and his removal may signal the end of a fragile truce between Thaksin and his opponents in the conservative elite and military establishment—a truce that had enabled the tycoon’s return from self-exile in 2023 and paved the way for Srettha’s rise to the premiership on the same day.

    Pheu Thai has acted swiftly to maintain its advantage, with media broadcasting live images late Wednesday of its coalition partners visiting the residence of its founder and influential figurehead, 75-year-old Thaksin. They aim to be decisive – any delay could lead to more infighting and power struggles, so the sooner they can hold a vote, the better. A quicker vote would make it easier to manage the process and control the outcome in the house.

    The convening of parliament less than 48 hours after Srettha’s dismissal stands in sharp contrast to last year, when it took two months for the lower house to convene and vote on a new premier following an election. At that time, lawmakers aligned with the military had united to block the anti-establishment election winner Move Forward from forming a government, but they later supported Srettha and Pheu Thai in a subsequent vote six weeks later. The 11-party Pheu Thai alliance, which holds 314 house seats, should have no trouble electing a prime minister on Friday, provided it remains united. A candidate must gain the support of more than half of the current 493 lawmakers to be elected as prime minister.

    Pheu Thai faces a crucial decision: whether to choose party veteran Chaikasem or take a gamble on newcomer Paetongtarn, despite the risk of triggering a backlash similar to the one that led to her father and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra being ousted in coups before fleeing into exile to avoid imprisonment. They will likely choose a successor soon, but the political drama is far from over, and it will continue until the people ultimately determine the final outcome. And after all, Bangladesh is not so far from Bangkok.

  • Thailand Outlaws Popular Progressive Party

    Thailand Outlaws Popular Progressive Party

    Thailand, the constitutional monarchy, once again failed its people. From the day the Move Forward Party, which aims to scrap outdated laws like lese majeste from the Thai constitution, came to light, the authorities have been working to bring it down. Even though the people voted for them and gave them the most seats in last year’s general election, they were denied administration. The party faced many cases, and finally, Thailand’s constitutional court ordered the dissolution of the country’s most popular and promising youth-led party, banning its leaders from politics for ten years over their election promise to reform the country’s strict and often cruel lese-majesty law. It seems the country doesn’t look for any chance to “move forward ”, despite people craving progress.

    On Wednesday, the constitutional court unanimously decided to dissolve the party and ban its executive committee, including its charismatic leader Pita Limjaroenrat, from politics for ten years. This decision followed a ruling by the same court in January, which declared the party’s pledge to reform the lese-majesty law unlawful and demanded an end to such efforts. Speaking at the party’s headquarters after the verdict, Pita stated that their movement would continue and that a new party and leadership would be established. The successor party, which Move Forward MPs will join, is expected to be announced on Friday.

    Thailand’s courts have often dissolved political parties and banned politicians, and the country has faced two coups since 2006 as part of a continuing power struggle between popular parties and the conservative establishment. Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, was dissolved by a court ruling in 2020 for allegedly violating election funding rules, a decision its supporters argued was politically motivated to remove them from the political landscape. The ruling sparked mass youth-led protests demanding democratic reforms and breaking a longstanding taboo by calling for changes to the royal family. Since then, at least 272 people have been charged with lese-majesty. In May, political activist Netiporn Sanae-sangkhom, 28, who was charged under the law, died in pre-trial detention after a 65-day hunger strike protesting the imprisonment of political dissidents.

    Although the dissolution might anger millions of young and urban voters who supported Move Forward and its progressive agenda, the ruling’s impact may be minimal, with only its 11 party executives facing 10-year political bans. Consequently, mass protests similar to those in 2020 may not occur. Hours after the ruling, Move Forward’s leaders announced that the remaining 143 lawmakers would establish a new party on Friday, similar to the response in 2020 when Future Forward, their predecessor, was dissolved.

    In Thailand, individuals have faced prosecution for making political speeches, wearing clothing considered to impersonate the royals, or selling satirical cartoons, all under Article 112 of Thailand’s criminal code, known as lese-majeste. In recent years, criticism of this law has grown, largely due to the mass protests that erupted in 2020. During these protests, young people demanded democratic reforms and challenged a deeply ingrained taboo by calling for changes to the monarchy’s role in public life.  their key demand was the abolition of the lese-majeste law. 

    It looks like Thailand’s youth politicians will not compromise with the authorities, and they have the support of the people, as evidenced by last year’s voter turnout. It is clear that a new party with new leadership but the same ideology will emerge in the next election. Sirikanya Tansakun, who is seen as a potential future leader, stated that while the party’s ideology would be preserved, its strategy would be dynamic and adaptable. Even if the constitutional authorities prevent them from participating in the administration and impose bans, the youth, including many from Gen Z who are globally connected through the internet, are not backing down. This cycle will continue until the people dismantle the authority. The constitutional monarchy is an absolute disgrace in the 21st century.

  • Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    Has an Asian NATO Already Evolved?

    NATO, one of the most successful international military collaborations, has helped Europe and the United States defend against communism and the Soviet Union, maintaining a stalemate in Europe and avoiding a possible third world war. Its importance in bringing peace to Europe is undeniable, even though the left and anti-war groups may disagree. While the Soviet Union ended, the might of Russia has kept NATO alive. However, Russia has proven not to be a significant threat to NATO, and the United States now sees the primary threat coming from Asia. The continent is on a journey back to prominence, with Communist China, the world’s second-biggest economy, along with its communist allies and Russia, deciding to challenge the United States and its influence. The United States recognizes these risks and is shifting its focus from the Atlantic to East Asia, strengthening military relationships with Asian countries. 

    The bilateral military relationships that the United States maintains with countries in the region are slowly evolving into regional ones. Although no official multilateral military organization like NATO has been created, political scientists believe such a coalition is already in effect in East Asia. North Korea, a communist ally of China, has no doubts about this development. North Korean state media have connected it to a recent joint military exercise by South Korea, Japan, and the US, claiming that these drills demonstrate that the relationship among the three countries has evolved into “The Asian version of NATO”.

    The three countries recently launched large-scale joint military drills near China, called “Freedom Edge”, involving navy destroyers, fighter jets, and the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. These exercises aim to enhance defenses against missiles, submarines, and air attacks. Conceived at the three-way summit at Camp David last year, the exercise is designed to strengthen military cooperation amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula due to North Korea’s weapons testing and increasing military ties among Russia, North Korea, and China. Thus, the joint exercise’s mission extends beyond North Korea to include China and Russia.

    North Korea’s foreign ministry declared that Pyongyang would not overlook the strengthening of a US-led military bloc and would safeguard regional peace with an aggressive and overwhelming response, according to the KCNA news agency, on Sunday. It is certain that the Chinese government will take note of this development, especially given the increasing number of joint military exercises in the water near China and the disputed South China Sea, which China considers crucial.

    According to political analysts, beyond merely connecting allied countries in the region to NATO, the US has cultivated a group of nations capable of forming an inter-military collaboration in Asia similar to NATO. The United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and Singapore all fall under US military security in the region, effectively countering China’s influence. For more effective cooperation, a NATO-like body with a secretariat and other administrative structures could be established by the US soon. However, cost remains a significant issue, as there is already criticism from US citizens regarding US spending on NATO, while other member countries contribute less. It is clear that if the Soviet Union was the primary threat last century, China is seen as the primary threat to the United States in this century. Taming China will likely be a priority for the US despite spending issues in the coming decades.

    So, it’s not only North Korea’s comments; the United States is likely to move in this direction to prevent potential aggression from China and North Korea in the region. The rapid movements from the US side, including numerous diplomatic talks, military exercises, and weapons trade agreements, all indicate this. Given the failure of SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization), a US initiative modeled after NATO in Asia, due to disagreements among members, adding new members will likely involve close scrutiny and consideration of their importance.

    It will be interesting to see how this process progresses, especially since Chinese investments are significant in Asian countries, and the United States is expected to engage with them. Many Asian countries, which lean toward authoritarianism, may not prefer to align with the US if it means cutting ties with the Russia-China alliance. Only if an aggressive China emerges will a NATO-level multinational inter-military collaboration spanning vast regions be smoothly established.

  • How Thailand is Helping Myanmar’s Junta Hold on to Power

    How Thailand is Helping Myanmar’s Junta Hold on to Power

    It has been three years since Myanmar witnessed a coup d’état that overthrew the democratically elected government. We all remember the viral video of a girl dancing while military vehicles approached the presidential palace to take control of the state. After three years, the military rule is still in power despite many democratic protests and military opposition. Major democracies around the world expressed concern and introduced tough sanctions in solidarity with democracy. Interestingly, despite Western sanctions, Myanmar, unlike resource-rich Russia, has managed to sustain itself. This has raised doubts about neighboring countries helping the junta by staying neutral. These suspicions were cemented by a recent United Nations-sponsored investigation revealing that Thailand has emerged as the leading source of banking services for Myanmar’s military junta and a key financial conduit for procuring arms and other military equipment.

    Tom Andrews, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, authored a report detailing the military junta’s adaptive strategies amidst sanctions from foreign governments. It describes how the State Administration Council (SAC), Myanmar’s military leadership, has altered financial and military suppliers to sustain arms procurement and its opposition campaign. The report identifies that despite international sanctions, SAC maintains crucial banking ties, with 16 banks across seven countries processing military transactions, and 25 banks providing correspondent services to Myanmar’s state-owned banks since the coup. Andrews highlights a significant shift in arms procurement, noting a decline in formal banking system transactions to $253 million in 2023 from $377 million the previous year, particularly citing decreased Chinese arms transfers from $140 million to $80 million. An interesting part of the report is how Thailand, which remains neutral and has not condemned the military takeover of the regime, has emerged as the major source for military supplies, surpassing Singapore, historically a major partner in trade and finance with Myanmar’s military and associated entities.

    As per the report published by Andrews, last year documented that despite Singaporean government opposition to arms transfers to Myanmar, entities based in Singapore had become the military junta’s third-largest source of weapons materials, following Russia and China. There are many reports that there are companies linked to military junta working in Singapore.  In 2022, the advocacy group Justice for Myanmar identified 38 Singapore-based companies involved in supplying weapons to the military, both pre and post the 2021 coup. Following a subsequent investigation by Singaporean authorities, Andrews reported in the document that the flow of weapons and related materials to Myanmar from Singapore-registered companies plummeted by nearly 90%, from $110 million to just $10 million. Total payments processed by Singaporean banks also declined sharply, from $260 million to approximately $40 million.

    However, the decline in business with Singapore led to an increase in transactions with Thailand, where business shifted due to easier administration and a junta-friendly government. In Thailand, the numbers moved in the opposite direction to Singapore, with transfers of weapons and related materials from companies registered in Thailand doubling from over $60 million in 2022 to nearly $130 million last year. These transfers included the purchase of spare parts for Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters and K-8W light attack aircraft, which were previously sourced via Singapore-based entities and used to conduct airstrikes on civilian targets. Thai banks have been pivotal in facilitating this shift. For example, Siam Commercial Bank facilitated just over $5 million in transactions related to the Myanmar military in the fiscal year ending March 2023, but the figure jumped to more than $100 million the following year.

    While the report demonstrates the junta’s ability to adapt to increasing financial restrictions, it also suggests that the campaign of Western sanctions is beginning to have an impact. Andrews notes that after the U.S. imposed sanctions on two state-owned banks last year, the Myanma Foreign Trade Bank (MFTB) and the Myanma Investment and Commercial Bank, the junta shifted most of its banking functions to Myanma Economic Bank (MEB), a state-owned bank that remains unsanctioned. Since then, MEB has processed tens of millions in payments for military procurement, receipt of international taxes and fees, and repatriation of foreign revenues from state-owned enterprises. Although Australia and Canada have also imposed sanctions on the first two banks, no foreign government has yet targeted MEB. The report emphasizes the need for the international community to shut down MEB’s international banking access through coordinated sanctions.

    The people of Myanmar are in a dire situation, as the suppression of democracy and pro-democracy movements has led to a civil war. The military regime continues to receive business and arms support from various countries, including Russia, Singapore, and now primarily from Thailand, their neighboring country and biggest supporter. While some rebel groups have connections with Western governments, there are few reports of military aid from the West. With India and China, Myanmar’s large neighbors, showing little interest in intervening in the civil unrest, Thailand’s indirect involvement becomes a significant advantage for the regime, enabling it to prolong the war and maintain its military rule.

  • Thailand Election Body To Dissolve The Move Forward Party: Thailand Democracy Directs To “Backward”

    Thailand Election Body To Dissolve The Move Forward Party: Thailand Democracy Directs To “Backward”

    Thailand’s electoral regulatory authority is on the verge of dissolving the Move Forward Party, despite the party’s success in the recent general election, raising concerns about the country’s democracy. The Move Forward Party, recognized for its commitment to democracy, progressive center-left agenda, and initiatives to reduce military influence in Thai politics, appears to be facing retaliation from the staunchly loyal election authority. Despite securing the most seats in the House of Representatives with 151 seats and 36.23 percent of the vote in the 2023 general election, the party has been barred from assuming power.

    On Tuesday, the Election Commission announced that it had conducted a thorough investigation into the court’s ruling against the Move Forward Party, which found the party’s attempts to amend lese majeste laws is unconstitutional. Subsequently, the Commission decided to proceed with the dissolution of the party. The Move Forward Party is accused by the Election Commission of undermining the democratic system, which recognizes the monarchy as the head of state, supported by compelling evidence. Additionally, Pita, along with other leaders, has become entangled in multiple legal cases. 

    The dissolution of political entities opposing the lese majeste law and military control over administration is a recurring issue in Thai politics. The Move Forward Party vehemently opposes the lasting effects of the military dictatorship, which governed Thailand from 2014 to 2019. If the party is disbanded, its leaders will face a ten-year ban from engaging in politics.

    Parit Wacharasindhu, a spokesperson for Move Forward, stated that the party’s legal team would “try their best until the last second to prevent the party from being dissolved.” He emphasized that proving the party’s innocence would also help “establish a proper standard for Thai politics in the future.”

    Initially founded in 2014 as the Ruam Pattana Chart Thai Party, the Move Forward Party underwent several name changes. However, in 2020, it adopted its current name after emerging as the de facto successor to the dissolved Future Forward Party. In early 2020, following the dissolution of the Future Forward Party by a controversial Constitutional Court order, the Move Forward Party effectively took its place. Fifty-five of Future Forward’s 65 MPs, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, expressed their intention to join the Move Forward Party, pledging to uphold the progressive and anti-junta agenda of their former party. Subsequently, the party’s name was changed to Move Forward, accompanied by the introduction of a new logo resembling that of Future Forward. Now, facing a threat of dissolution once more, the Move Forward Party anticipates a more stringent response from the authorities, given their apparent intolerance towards any party capable of garnering public support and securing a majority of seats in public elections, despite efforts to manipulate the electoral process.

    The Move Forward Party’s campaign to repeal the lese majeste law reflects a long-standing desire among the people. Since the protests sparked by the denial of power to the Move Forward Party, over 260 individuals, including children, have faced prosecution under this law. Widely criticized by human rights organizations, the lese majeste law is seen as a tool to suppress dissent and wield political influence. Its broad interpretation allows cases to be filed by anyone. For instance, last year, a man received a reduced two-year sentence for selling satirical calendars featuring cartoon rubber ducks deemed defamatory to the king. Similarly, in 2022, an activist was sentenced to two years for wearing fancy dress deemed to mock the queen. Both are currently on bail while appealing their convictions. Notably, in January, a man was handed a 50-year prison sentence for criticizing the monarchy on Facebook – marking the longest sentence for such an offense, as reported by Thai Lawyers for Human Rights.

    The Move Forward Party has chosen not to openly criticize the monarchy or the prevailing political structure, fearing potential dissolution. Instead, the party has consistently opposed undemocratic practices. While refuting allegations of seeking to overthrow the current system led by the king, they advocate against the lese majeste law. Their aim is to prevent the monarchy from intervening in politics and to better reflect the public opinion. Conversely, conservatives staunchly resist any attempts to modify the law. Last year, military-appointed senators, empowered to appoint the next president, used Move Forward’s reform calls as a basis to block them from assuming office. 

    We can’t predict the verdict of constitutional approval of Banning the political party, but it’s clear, the banning of the Move forward Party and continuing cruel Lese Majesty law is definitely a shame for Thailand and Democracy.

  • Thaksin out of Prison: How Former Prime Minister’s Parole Will Affect Thailand’s Politics

    Thaksin out of Prison: How Former Prime Minister’s Parole Will Affect Thailand’s Politics

    In a surprising turn of events, Thailand’s justice minister has announced the impending release of Thaksin Shinawatra, the nation’s former prime minister currently serving time in prison. This development unfolds six months after Thaksin’s return from a self-imposed exile. Thaksin was originally given an eight-year sentence in August of the previous year due to charges of corruption and abuse of power, but King Maha Vajiralongkorn  reduced it to just one year. 

    Srettha, a member of the Pheu Thai Party led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of Thaksin, broke the news. Following the May elections, in which the progressive Move Forward Party won the majority of votes but was prevented from taking office by powerful groups allied with the military and traditional elite, the Pheu Thai Party emerged winner. This political environment in Thailand has become even more complicated as a result of this most recent event. The link between the military and the ruling Pheu Thai party is now solidified. Additionally, the military can take more serious action against Pita, the current populist leader, and his Move forward Party.

    In the current Thai political landscape, a complex dynamic unfolds as both populist leaders and the authorities find themselves in opposing positions. A populist figure, advocating for systemic change, is navigating a relentless stream of legal challenges, employing the typical lese majeste tool. Concurrently, after years of detainment and exile, a former prime minister pivotal in reshaping the nation’s authority is on the brink of release. This marks a momentous development as Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, seeks liberation from imprisonment, having been a target of the country’s perilous lese majeste laws and accusations of dictatorship.

    The intrigue deepens as the military authority takes substantial actions against Pita, the current focal point of their attention, facing the looming threat of a party ban. Pita’s party holds the majority in the Thailand legislative assembly. The recent release of Thaksin, who once found himself in a similar predicament, sparks curiosity, considering his party’s prior banishment and his enduring political exile. The prevailing perception suggests that the authority’s heightened measures against Pita and the Move Forward Party are strategically aimed at garnering support from the populace, predominantly in favor of Pita.

    On Tuesday, Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong disclosed that the 74-year-old, renowned for his past ownership of Manchester City, would be among 930 prisoners granted early release. Thaksin qualifies for release after a six-month period due to his critical health condition and age exceeding 70, as outlined by Sodsong. While the specifics of his release remain unclear, there are expectations that monitoring measures, possibly including an ankle tag, and travel restrictions may be imposed. Thaksin’s return to Thailand aligns with his Pheu Thai party’s resurgence to power, in collaboration with pro-military factions, prompting speculation about a potential behind-the-scenes agreement influencing the reduction of his prison term.

    Thaksin Shinawatra was the inaugural prime minister of Thailand to serve a full term, leaving an indelible mark on the nation’s modern history. The former prime minister held the position from 2001 to 2006, and after being absent from the political arena since his 2006 ousting, he is making a comeback to Thailand after a hiatus of over 15 years. His leadership, widely considered distinctive, was characterized by a plethora of noteworthy policies that set him apart from his predecessors. These policies encompassed various domains such as the economy, public health, education, energy, social order, drug suppression, and international relations, marking a departure from the norm. Notably, Thaksin secured re-election once during his tenure. Among his most impactful initiatives were the reduction of rural poverty and the introduction of universal healthcare. These measures garnered previously overlooked support from the rural poor, particularly in the populous northeast region of the country.

    Thaksin’s cabinet comprised a diverse coalition, including academics, former student leaders, and past leaders of the Palang Dharma Party. Figures like Prommin Lertsuridej, Chaturon Chaisang, Prapat Panyachatraksa, Surapong Suebwonglee, Somkid Jatusripitak, Surakiart Sathirathai, and Sudarat Keyuraphan were instrumental in his government. Traditional regional power brokers also aligned themselves with his administration.

    Despite these achievements, Thaksin’s government faced mounting accusations of dictatorship, demagogy, corruption, conflicts of interest, human rights offenses, undiplomatic behavior, exploitation of legal loopholes, and a confrontational stance towards a free press. As a highly controversial leader, he became the subject of numerous allegations, including lese majeste, treason, usurpation of religious and royal authority, asset sales to international investors, and religious desecration.

    Rumors are circulating that Thaksin Shinawatra’s imprisonment, which commenced on August 22 last year, might conclude as early as this weekend, sparking discussions in local media. Thaksin continues to wield significant influence, stirring controversy in the nation. Since 2008, living in exile to evade legal charges, he has maintained impact by sharing viewpoints on social media and engaging in discussions on platforms. Despite his physical absence, political parties aligned with him dominated recent elections, with Move Forward, a pro-democracy party, emerging as the leading vote-getter.

    Upon his return to Bangkok, Thaksin received a hero’s welcome from supporters, making a poignant public gesture by prostrating himself before a portrait of the king at the airport. Recently, the former telecoms tycoon faced lese-majesty charges related to comments made almost a decade ago in South Korea. The outcome of the case remains uncertain, but Thaksin vehemently denies the charges and has written to the attorney general, seeking fair treatment.

    In the current landscape, Thaksin’s potential release signifies the authorities’ intent to bolster the Pheu Thai party, establishing a connection between the royal and government spheres to secure widespread support. The clear implication is that further measures will be taken against Pita and the Move Forward Party. The authorities have unequivocally identified Pita and the New Forward Party as their primary targets, signaling a strategic alignment with Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party.

  • Democracy on Trial: The Hard Journey of Pita and Move Forward Party

    Democracy on Trial: The Hard Journey of Pita and Move Forward Party

    Thailand’s democracy is being tested in the courtrooms. Thailand’s opposition leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, and his Move Forward Party are entangled in significant legal battles that pose a serious threat to the country’s democracy. The situation is critical and demands attention. 

    The country, characterized by its constitutional monarchy, has long been under the influence of both royals and the military, whose allegiance to the kingdom surpasses that to the government. Democratic aspirations received a boost last year through a landmark election that saw Pita Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward Party clinch victory. However, the current trajectory deviates from the nation’s democratic ideals. Increasing legal challenges have led to Pita’s removal from parliament, ensnaring both the party and its leader in a complex web of legal intricacies. Pita’s parliamentary return faces formidable obstacles imposed by the recently established government, which enjoys support from the military and royalists.

    In a recent development, Pita Limjaroenrat and seven other political figures have been handed suspended sentences by a Thai court for orchestrating an unlawful rally in 2019. This legal verdict adds to the hurdles confronting the opposition Move Forward Party, which recently faced a constitutional court ruling against it. The court’s decision highlighted that the party had undermined the monarchy and national security, as it advocated for amendments to the law safeguarding the monarchy from criticism.

    Limjaroenrat’s recent sentencing represents a substantial legal setback. Despite his recent reinstatement as a Member of Parliament, Pita faces potential disqualification should his appeal prove unsuccessful and the courts uphold the verdict. The legal framework in Thailand prohibits individuals convicted of serious crimes from holding parliamentary seats, prompting an organized effort to remove him from office. Charges against him include orchestrating an unlawful rally, and this setback follows a recent Thai court ruling that found his Move Forward party had undermined the monarchy.

    The Move Forward party is now confronted with the imminent threat of dissolution. Legal challenges have escalated in the aftermath of the recent constitutional court ruling, heightening the possibility of bans on the party’s executives from participating in political activities.

    The National Assembly of Thailand, (Ratthasapha in Thai), operates as the bicameral legislative branch of the Thai government Established in 1932 following the adoption of Thailand’s inaugural constitution, the formation of the National Assembly marked the country’s transition from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy. Comprising a Senate and a House of Representatives, the bicameral legislature boasts a total of 750 members. Among them, 500 are directly elected through a general election, constituting the lower house. The remaining 250 Senate members are appointed by the military. Elections in Thailand predominantly adhere to the first-past-the-post system, with 400 House of Representatives members elected through this method. The remaining 100 House members are elected through party list proportional representation.

    In the general elections held on May 14, 2023, to elect 500 House of Representatives members, the Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, surprised analysts by securing the highest number of seats. The Pheu Thai party, also in the opposition, followed closely, having previously won the most seats in the 2011 and 2019 elections. The voter turnout set a record at 75.22%. Despite emerging as a youthful and progressive force, winning the majority of votes and seats in the previous year’s election, Move Forward has encountered obstacles in realizing its agenda. The party’s promises of military reform, dismantling corporate monopolies, and amending the lese-majeste law were met with resistance. Unelected senators, aligned with the military royalist establishment, blocked the party from assuming power. Move Forward’s liberal platform and significant appeal among young and urban voters are perceived as a potential challenge to the established order in Thailand.

    The legal challenges against those perceived as opposing democracy in Thailand extend beyond Pita’s case. Several ongoing cases underscore the tension between supporters of democracy and those aligned with the constitutional monarchy. In a recent development on Monday, a district court in Bangkok issued a suspended four-month prison sentence for two years to six prominent figures associated with Move Forward’s precursor, the now-defunct Future Forward Party (FFP). Additionally, two activists received sentences in connection with the same issue.

    Thailand has long considered criticism of the lese-majesty law and the royal family as a forbidden topic. Pita’s rise to prominence was propelled by mass youth-led protests that called for changes to the monarchy’s role, including the abolition of lese-majesty. However, the authorities resist these changes, leading to charges against the main protest leaders. Over 260 individuals, including children, have faced prosecution under lese-majesty, also known as Article 112 of the criminal code. This law is broadly interpreted, allowing cases to be filed by anyone.

    It is evident that Pita and the Move Forward Party face an uncertain future, with implications for their participation in future elections. However, the people’s desire for democracy persists, and they are likely to rally behind new leaders and parties in the future.

  • Navigating Legal Hurdles: Pita Limjaroenrat’s Resilience Leads to Parliament Return

    Navigating Legal Hurdles: Pita Limjaroenrat’s Resilience Leads to Parliament Return

    The electoral success of Pita’s progressive Move Forward party in the previous year underscored a notable yearning for change among Thai voters following nearly a decade of military-controlled rule. Despite this victory, Pita encountered obstacles, being denied the role of prime minister and facing multiple charges that jeopardized his parliamentary position. 

    In a ruling issued on Wednesday, Thailand’s Constitutional Court concluded that Pita Limjaroenrat, despite being prevented from assuming the role of prime minister, did not breach election laws and is entitled to retain his parliamentary seat. The suspension from the legislature had stemmed from accusations of violating the law by owning shares in a media company. However, the court accepted Pita’s argument that ITV was not actively involved in media operations. Electoral rules explicitly prohibit political candidates from holding shares in any media company during the registration for an election.

    In a noteworthy legal development, a panel of nine judges ruled 8-1 in favor of Pita Limjaroenrat on Wednesday. The court determined that Pita’s ownership of shares in ITV, a company connected to a defunct independent television station, did not violate Article 98 of the constitution since ITV was not engaged in media businesses. Consequently, Pita’s parliamentary status remained unaffected. Expressing his satisfaction, Pita declared, “I’m happy and will continue working as planned” following the verdict.

    Outside the court, approximately 40 supporters, holding signs and flowers, enthusiastically cheered for Pita as he emerged. Jiraporn Bussawaket, a 76-year-old supporter, remarked, “There is justice for the people. Initially, I didn’t trust the court, but now I see justice.” However, Pita still confronts another legal challenge scheduled for January 31. In this case, he and his party are accused of attempting to undermine Thailand’s government system by proposing an amendment to the law prohibiting defamation of the royal family, known as lese-majeste. This law carries a severe penalty of up to 15 years in prison and is often criticized as a political weapon. Given the monarchy’s significant role in Thai identity, any proposed amendments to related laws are deemed sensitive.

    Since 2020, more than 260 individuals, including children, have been subjected to prosecution under the lese-majeste law. This surge in legal actions has primarily occurred in the backdrop of youth-led protests advocating for comprehensive reforms to the monarchy, with a particular focus on abolishing the lese-majesty law. In a recent development, an individual received a 50-year prison sentence for criticizing the monarchy, marking the most extended sentence for this offence, as reported by Thai Lawyers for Human Rights.

    The precursor to the Move Forward Party, the Future Forward Party, faced dissolution through a constitutional court ruling in 2020 due to violations of funding rules. Furthermore, its former leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, was disqualified as a Member of Parliament for holding shares in a media company—a case he argued was politically motivated.

    Critics contend that these legal challenges against Pita Limjaroenrat and his party reflect tactics employed by the ruling conservative establishment. The approach involves sidelining political rivals through legal proceedings and nominally independent state agencies. The Move Forward Party’s forerunner, the Future Forward Party, encountered dissolution through a Constitutional Court ruling in 2020, reinforcing concerns about the politicization of legal processes.

    Pita, alongside the Move Forward Party, is currently confronting an additional complaint that alleges their intention to amend lese-majesty—a law prohibiting criticism of the royal family—is perceived as an effort to undermine the constitutional monarchy. The court is slated to announce its verdict in this case next week. If the ruling goes unfavorably for Move Forward, the party may be directed to abandon its commitment to altering the law.

    When questioned about his sentiments leading up to the impending verdict on January 31, Pita expressed confidence, highlighting the factual and legal foundation of their case. Move Forward’s advocacy for reforming lese-majesty played a pivotal role in the military-appointed senate’s decision to thwart Pita’s candidacy for the prime minister’s position last year, ultimately leading his party into the opposition.

    Despite encountering challenges, Pita Limjaroenrat and the Move Forward Party persist in retaining strong public backing. Their supporters condemn the legal cases as tactics orchestrated by the establishment to undermine political opposition. Eager to resume parliamentary duties at the earliest opportunity, Pita expressed the need for official permission. He reaffirmed his dedication to serving the people and outlined immediate plans, including a press conference to discuss Move Forward’s future agenda. Pita shared these details with reporters, underscoring his unwavering commitment to the public.