Tag: US

Is Armenia’s Defense Strategy Changing with US Military Aid?

Armenia was humiliated when Azerbaijan captured the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which had long been under the rule of Armenian Christians. It’s a historical rivalry between these former Soviet republics, but this time Armenia’s anger at the loss in the war was directed towards their Christian brother Russia, which provided military, economic, and political assistance to Armenia but considered staying neutral or allowing the takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan. The Armenian government accepted defeat and chose not to make comments against it, despite some protests and anger towards Russia. There was a general perception in Yerevan that the Kremlin had not lived up to its security obligations to Armenia. However, people with deep ties to Russia or those in geopolitically isolated situations refrained from making further protests against Russia.

But Armenians are not only in Modern Armenia; they have a larger population in the United States and Western countries than in Armenia itself. They are angry. They believe Russia preferred richer Azerbaijan and strategically important Turkey and their interests over Armenia. They believe it’s time to shift their allegiance from Russia to the West. And when Russia weakens or is perceived as weak, Armenian politicians are removing the redline they aspire to join in Europe, and they have won some impressive military assistance from the Eagle, the United States.

The European Union and the United States swiftly responded to Armenian overtures for closer security and economic ties. In early April, they jointly proposed an assistance package totaling over $350 million for Yerevan. Following this initiative, US Ambassador to Armenia Kristina Kvien stated that the relationship between the US and Armenia is expanding. She noted that Washington’s engagement with Yerevan has broadened and deepened across various sectors over the past year, including military cooperation. Kvien highlighted significant developments in this area, such as the joint US-Armenian military exercises held in early September in Armenia. Additionally, she mentioned plans for an American military advisor to collaborate with the Armenian Defense Ministry to implement reforms aimed at enhancing planning and operational standards to modern levels. This is enough to consider Europe’s interest is expanding to Armenia and the Russosphere is shrinking and Armenia leading to deep trouble. Ukraine’s desire to join NATO is perceived as motivation for Russia’s war on the nation.

Though Ambassador Kvien echoed they don’t have plans to disrespect Relationship with Russia , emphasizing that US assistance to Armenia does not come with a condition to sever ties with Russia. She highlighted the importance of having multiple allies and trade partners for Armenia’s strength and resilience, stating that diversification, rather than exclusion, is the goal. However, it’s evident that if Armenia strengthens its ties with the United States or Europe, it could strain its relationship with Russia, given the historical tensions between these countries. And Russia is already concerned about the United States growing interest in the former soviet republics. Russia and Azerbaijan responded strongly to the EU-US aid package announced on April 5th for Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed concerns in the Armenian parliament by emphasizing increased economic and security cooperation with the West.

The possibility that the United States was going to provide significant military support to Armenia seemed unthinkable just a few years ago. However, situations have changed, and Washington is moving cautiously in its efforts to remove a geopolitical red line in the Caucasus, painted by the Soviet Union. While Russia and Iran will likely face increased confrontation with the expanding Eurosphere in the Caucasus, the region will become more unstable. The two spheres are evolving in this tiny region, with Georgia, Armenia, and Europe on one side, and Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan on the other side. Turkey’s involvement will only add complexity to the situation.

April 21, 2024
Who is Provoking Whom? US and Philippines Plan Military Drills in Disputed Waters

While western Asia is gripped by the fear of war, with Israel and Iran launching attacks against each other, Philippine and US forces will carry out their first-ever military exercises along the edge of South China Sea waters, outside their territorial waters. This action is poised to provoke China and deepen the crisis in the South China Sea and East Asia. Even though there is no issue with conducting military drills in international waters, and the Philippines and the US being long-time allies, it will undoubtedly represent a significant setback for China, a nation asserting claims over the South China Sea and striving to control regional politics. While it may resemble high school bullying, it underscores the imperative for countries to steer clear of further conflicts, as people suffer from the effects of ongoing wars.

The annual military drills, known as Balikatan or “Shoulder-to-Shoulder” drills, are scheduled to take place from April 22nd to May 10th this year, with the participation of 16,700 soldiers. The program involves simulations of retaking enemy-occupied islands in areas facing Taiwan and the South China Sea, potentially sending a message to China. This year’s military drills are notable for the inclusion of the Philippine Coast Guard for the first time, reflecting their increasing involvement in confrontations with China, where they have previously faced humiliation from the Chinese navy in incidents involving water cannons.

China appears to be paying close attention to this issue. Beijing continues to claim almost every inch of the South China Sea, citing historical and cultural ties to the region, despite an international tribunal’s 2016 ruling that Beijing’s expansive claims lacked legal legitimacy. Their unwavering position is supported by the strategic importance of the South China Sea to China’s political and economic hegemony. China’s aggressive actions against Philippine vessels prompted the Philippines and the US, its strongest ally, to decide to conduct the drill in the disputed waters. The Chinese foreign ministry issued a warning, stating that the Philippines should be “Sober enough to realize” that inviting other nations to demonstrate their military might in the South China Sea and provoke conflict will only heighten tensions and jeopardize stability in the region. China opposes the involvement of the United States and Japan in the South China Sea issue. During a scheduled press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stressed that “Attempts to enlist external forces to safeguard its purported security will only result in greater insecurity for itself”, urging both countries to refrain from provocations. Chinese official media also warned that such actions would have a “Destructive impact on regional security”.

The foreign ministry of the Philippines asserted that China should “Reflect upon its own actions” in the South China Sea, stating that the country’s decision to strengthen ties with the US and Japan was a “Sovereign choice”. The ministry emphasized in a statement that “The source of tension in our region is well known to all”, linking the escalation of tensions in the region to China’s aggressive behavior and excessive maritime claims, including the militarization of disputed islands. China and the Philippines have had multiple clashes, thankfully avoiding direct war like those seen in West Asia, given the unstable political climate in the region. However, there are concerns that this area would be among the first to see war if the world order continues to collapse.

The joint military drills are commonly conducted to improve communication between militaries, and this will feature bolstered support from the United States to the Philippines. Amid growing tensions with Beijing, Joe Biden promised last week to protect the Philippines from any attacks in the South China Sea during the first-ever joint summit with Manila and Tokyo. Currently, approximately 14 countries will observe the annual practice, including Japan, India, and countries from ASEAN and the EU. The military drills are going to showcase the readiness of the team to oppose China.

April 20, 2024
Surprising Development: UN Approves Gaza Ceasefire Resolution as US Abstains

The United States faced a critical decision amid the worsening situation in Gaza, with escalating retaliatory actions leading to a humanitarian crisis. Despite feeling powerless to halt the violence, the US initially contemplated vetoing the UN Security Council’s call for a ceasefire in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, it ultimately chose to abstain from the vote. The resolution passed unanimously, leaving Israel significantly isolated on the international stage. The chamber erupted in cheers upon the ratification of the ceasefire resolution, indicating widespread support for peace efforts.

After vetoing three previous resolutions, the United States found itself at the center of attention once again as the United Nations Security Council convened on Monday to push for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, especially during the remaining weeks of Ramadan. In a surprise move, as no one expected, The resolution finally received the green light after the Biden administration withdrew its veto threat, choosing instead to abstain from the vote. This decision marked a notable shift in the US’s diplomatic approach towards Israel, albeit temporary. With the conflict’s grim toll revealing over 32,000 lives lost, mostly women and children, and more than 75% of Gaza’s population displaced, the urgency for the resolution became undeniable. Interestingly, on the same day the US refrained from vetoing the UN ceasefire vote, allowing its passage, the Biden administration also affirmed that Israel hadn’t breached international law or hindered humanitarian aid to Gaza’s residents, despite ongoing concerns.

The US continues to remain firmly committed to its partnership with Israel while juggling allegiance with a more sophisticated understanding of its behavior. The Biden administration has chosen to believe Israel’s assurances throughout the conflict, even in the face of strong evidence suggesting possible violations of international law.

It’s quite notable how swiftly the US adopted this position, especially considering that just a week prior, the UN’s foremost authority on food security had issued a dire warning about an imminent famine in northern Gaza. This area, housing 1.1 million individuals – almost half of Gaza’s population – is grappling with severe malnutrition and acute food shortages. Despite consistent alerts raised by humanitarian organizations and UN officials since December, shedding light on Israel’s deliberate policies exacerbating starvation in Gaza and the looming famine threat, the Biden administration has largely overlooked these concerns.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conveyed strong displeasure regarding the Biden administration’s choice not to veto the latest UN resolution. In a retaliatory move, he called off a planned visit by a high-level Israeli delegation to Washington later that week. This delegation, consisting of Israeli military, intelligence, and humanitarian officials, aimed to discuss alternatives to a potential ground invasion of Gaza’s southern city of Rafah, where over a million Palestinians have sought refuge. Despite persistent warnings from the US, Netanyahu remains resolute in his intentions for a military intervention in Rafah, disregarding the grave consequences for civilians.

However, Netanyahu tempered some of his frustration towards Biden by refraining from recalling Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who is currently visiting Washington. Gallant advocates for expediting the processing of a substantial arsenal of US weapons requested by Israel. These include thousands of bombs and other munitions crucial for Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza, as well as more advanced weaponry like new F-35 and F-15 fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters, which have extended production timelines.

Netanyahu’s strategic response – simultaneously resisting US pressure regarding civilian protection in Rafah while persistently seeking additional American weaponry – captures the intricate dynamics of the US-Israeli relationship under the Biden administration. It underscores a reality that the Biden administration has sought to downplay: the ongoing violence in Gaza heavily relies on deep complicity and support from the United States.

White House spokesperson John Kirby clarified that the UN vote didn’t signal a shift in US policy, but it did indicate a notable divergence between the Biden administration and the Israeli government. This resolution marked a long-awaited display of international solidarity on the Gaza issue, especially given the dire humanitarian situation, with over 32,000 reported Palestinian casualties, thousands missing, and UN agencies warning of an impending famine.

Meanwhile, in Washington, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant reiterated Israel’s commitment to continue fighting until the release of hostages held in Gaza. “We cannot morally justify halting the conflict while there are still hostages in Gaza,” Gallant stated ahead of his initial meeting with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. He cautioned that a lack of a decisive victory in Gaza could escalate tensions and potentially lead to conflict in the northern regions.

Israel’s desire for retaliation is understandable, as they prioritize the safety of their innocent citizens and seek to reclaim hostages, including women and children, held by the terrorist organization Hamas. While their actions may be justified in this regard, the operation to eradicate terrorism and rescue hostages has tragically resulted in the deaths of over 30,000 Palestinian individuals and left many others facing famine. Regardless of the reasons behind support for Hamas or the celebration of violence against Israelis, Israel’s response has unfortunately led to the loss of innocent lives as well.

The United States, often seen as the big brother or father figure to Israel, has typically been protective and overlooked its actions. However, it’s a hopeful sign that, for the first time in recent history, the father figure isn’t making excuses for the son’s misdeeds. At Least some people hope that abstaining from voting on the UN resolution will pave the way for peace in Gaza and the release of all captives held by Hamas.

March 28, 2024
Central Asian States Embrace US-Facilitated Integration Plan: Redefining Regional Dynamics

Once firmly ensconced within Russia’s sphere of influence, Central Asia is now slowly stepping out of its shadow. Despite possessing vast economic potential, abundant geographical resources, and significant opportunities for tourism, the region had been reluctant to liberate itself from the iron grip of the Soviet era. However, as Russia’s influence diminishes and Central Asian nations strive to assert their own identities, they are increasingly seeking collaboration with other global actors.

China has made notable strides, participating in diverse agreements like the Belt and Road Initiative and embarking on infrastructure and mining ventures. India, an emerging economic force, similarly seeks to tap into Central Asia’s mineral resources to satisfy its expanding needs, resulting in numerous accords. Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has rekindled its focus on the Turkic identity and is deepening its engagement in the region. Saudi Arabia expresses interest, while Iran sustains its presence.

Despite these shifts, the United States, a major player in global politics, has not significantly intervened in the region, largely deferring to Russian authority. Central Asian leaders have also distanced themselves from the United States to maintain favor with Russian rulers. However, as Russia’s supremacy is challenged with the incidents such as the Ukraine conflict and increasing alignment of neighboring countries with the United States, both Central Asia and the U.S. see an opportunity for closer ties and market exploration in the region.

The United States is initiating a strategic effort, akin to stringing pearls, to unify all Central Asian nations into a cohesive network of collaboration. They initiated B5+1, a diplomatic platform for Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) and the U.S.. Following its inaugural Forum, the group is placing emphasis on five priority industries and outlining specific actions necessary to expedite regional integration and economic growth in Central Asia. Attendees at the March 2024 Forum in Almaty, Kazakhstan, included business leaders, investors, experts, and policymakers from the region and various other nations. The role of the United States in this initiative is that of a facilitator, anticipating that Central Asian states will lead efforts to integrate the region’s economy through robust public-private partnerships. Furthermore, the involvement of the private sector is deemed essential in shaping the process.

the United States laying a sturdy groundwork for potential success. Central Asian governments are responding positively to the plan. The objective of the primary forum was to foster discussions aimed at dismantling trade barriers hindering outside investment and fostering a regional market. This objective has been successfully realized. Interest from regional governments in developing the B5+1 initiative appears robust, with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan reportedly vying to host the forum next year.

The Kazakh government, the biggest player in the region, has shown immense support for the initiative. During the closing remarks of the initial B5+1 forum, held in Almaty from March 13-15, Kazakh First Deputy Minister of National Economy Timur Zhaksylykov expressed the government’s willingness to collaborate with the private sector in enhancing trade prospects, particularly in sectors like agribusiness and e-commerce. They also expressed a commitment to working towards the development of a unified regional market.

During the Almaty forum, private sector representatives issued a statement expressing their commitment to coordinating efforts aimed at enhancing trade, transit, and investment facilitation. Additionally, they pledged to work towards harmonizing regulations in key industries beyond the dominant energy and extractive sectors, which have traditionally attracted the majority of Western investment in the region. The B5+1 initiative has identified five economic sectors for prioritized development: trade and logistics, agribusiness, e-commerce, tourism, and renewable energy. Areas where the United States can pump their interest and money.

They also addressed the immediate need to establish a regional chamber of commerce to advocate for economic integration. One common priority identified across all sectors is the development of transnational mechanisms to harmonize regulatory and customs frameworks. One suggestion is the development of a standardized digital CMR, allowing for the smooth movement of truck-borne goods across borders through electronic contractual documentation. Currently, many customs procedures lack digitalization. Another recommendation advocates for the removal of visa requirements for truck drivers engaged in import-export activities. Additionally, to boost tourism, the B5+1 proposes the adoption of a Schengen-like tourism visa, enabling tourists to freely explore the five regional states.

Despite the promising start of the B5+1 initiative, numerous challenges persist. In a region where authoritarian governance often shapes policy, the extent to which officials are willing to relinquish control to private sector entities remains uncertain. Moreover, the private sector’s capacity in areas like policy development and advocacy is largely untested. Previous attempts to enhance regional economic integration have faltered, and the promotion of a unified Central Asian market conflicts with the interests of Russia and China.

However, if the B5+1 maintains its momentum, the envisioned outcome is a well-regulated and efficient single market that attracts significant Western investment. Under the B5+1 vision, integration can safeguard the individual sovereignty of each Central Asian state, bolstering their resilience against political and economic pressures from neighboring and external actors.

Supporters of the US-led B5+1 process acknowledge Washington’s intention to enhance its influence in Central Asia but emphasize a significant contrast between this approach and those of Russia and China. The strategy of the B5+1 aims to organically expand American influence in the region, employing methods that fundamentally differ from those employed by Moscow and Beijing.

Cooperation with the United States economy holds paramount importance for any nation’s success. From bolstering foreign reserves to attracting significant business investments, reliance on the dollar and partnerships with the United States permeate various aspects of economic development. And here, collaboration talks extend beyond financial realms, encompassing areas like travel visas, currency agreements, legal frameworks, and trade tariffs, all contributing to creating a highly competitive environment for investments in partner countries. Indeed, intensified cooperation between the United States and their allies in Asia like Saudi Arabia holds the potential for increased investment and developmental strides in the region.

Moreover, as companies engage in collaborative ventures, the United States stands to gain allies in the region, countering the dominance sought by Russia and China over resource-rich nations. This collaborative approach not only mitigates the risk of monopolistic tendencies but also accelerates the realization of development aspirations in Central Asia. While Russia may attempt to maintain control through power dynamics, the path forward may not be without challenges. Nonetheless, for Central Asian nations and the United States alike, this presents an opportunity to foster economic growth and wield greater political influence in the Asian landscape.

March 21, 2024
Will Chinese Economy Slowdown Affect the “Science War” With the United States?

The perpetual struggle for supremacy among nations often culminates in tragic and devastating conflicts. However, in the realm of science, this rivalry proves beneficial, as the nation at the forefront of innovation typically emerges as a global leader. This dynamic prompts governments to allocate substantial resources for research and development.

Throughout history, the competitive landscape of science has propelled progress.. Nazi Germany’s advancements in aircraft research, for instance, spurred the United States to enhance its own aircraft technologies. Similarly, the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union fueled significant progress in space science, consequently advancing capabilities in various fields such as agriculture and medicine.

After the dissolution of the USSR, a period of stagnation gripped innovation, lacking the competitive impetus that had driven progress. However, the rise of China as a formidable force in the early 21st century, particularly excelling in technology, artificial intelligence, and space exploration bring back good days for science. China’s ambitious pursuits compelled the United States to readjust its research focus, breaking free from years of relative stagnation.

However, there are indications that the Chinese economy might be faltering. This situation makes one wonder what impact it might have on the pace of technological development and what shape future global innovation will take.

While Chinese leaders address the economic challenges, they are not putting their feet back in embracing the technology. China’s policy decisions are channeled through the Chinese National Assembly, colloquially referred to as the “Two Sessions.” Last week’s deliberations during the “Two Sessions” are expected to yield additional policies aimed at bolstering science and technology, forming a pivotal component of a broader strategy to enhance economic growth. As the legislative and top political advisory bodies convene, a fervent discussion ensues concerning China’s technological development and the potential threat posed by the “Middle-technology Trap.”

The “Middle-technology Trap” involves the peril of developing nations initially benefiting from the transfer of industrial capabilities but encountering prolonged stagnation in catching up with technologically advanced nations, sparking a spirited debate. China’s pursuit of high-quality economic development is intricately linked with technological advancements. While some argue that the substantial gap between China’s technological capabilities and the West fuels the discourse, opposing views question the accuracy of the middle-technology trap concept in portraying China’s current status. This skepticism arises from instances where China has surpassed the United States in certain technological aspects.

The ongoing discussions reflect China’s nuanced approach to navigating the challenges and opportunities in its technological journey. China aims for a delicate balance between self-reliance and global collaboration to propel its development, showcasing a strategic and multifaceted perspective on the evolving landscape of technology and its role in the nation’s progress.

China’s standout technological achievement is in the realm of electric vehicles (EV). Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) in the EV value chain has experienced significant growth, and Chinese companies’ expects dominance in high-tech industries expanding overseas.

The surge in Chinese EV investments abroad can be attributed to a combination of “Pull” factors abroad and “Push” factors within the Chinese market. International car manufacturers in Europe and the US prefer proximity between battery makers and their plants to mitigate supply chain disruptions and reduce transportation costs. Chinese battery manufacturers, possessing the necessary technology and capital, are well-positioned to meet this demand. Simultaneously, the deceleration and increasing saturation of China’s domestic EV market serve as additional incentives for Chinese EV companies to explore overseas opportunities. With a concurrent rise in global EV adoption, leading Chinese EV companies, spanning raw material refiners, battery material producers, battery manufacturers, and EV producers, are actively targeting international markets.

Notably, BYD stands out as the world’s largest EV car producer, continually advancing technologies, vehicles, and batteries within China’s robust research centers. The reliance on subsidies and support from the Chinese government is evident, providing a crucial boost for Chinese companies in research and development. When the Chinese economy undergoes a slowdown, there is a growing need for more market-driven funding, potentially impacting business operations.

China has emerged as a global leader in the development and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI). Whether in e-commerce, ride-hailing services, or autonomous vehicles, Chinese companies operating in these sectors are formidable global competitors, significantly contributing to China’s overall progress. Chinese policymakers have implemented a comprehensive set of regulations focused on data and consumer protection. These regulations aim to ensure the responsible use of technologies and prevent market abuses by dominant players. China’s regulatory framework, in terms of scope and breadth, currently outpaces that of leading counterparts in Europe and the United States.

When we are talking about data security we have to consider the government level data breaching too. The alignment of interests between autocratic governments and AI technology is notable. Autocratic rulers seek the ability to predict the whereabouts, thoughts, and behaviors of citizens – a fundamental aspect of AI technology. This shared purpose creates a synergy between AI technology and autocratic governance. Given the significant data dependence of AI, regimes with authoritarian tendencies, known for extensive data collection, hold a distinct advantage. Companies with Chinese government contracts can leverage state data to enhance commercial projects.

China is poised to intensify research and development in advanced space technology, with potential implications for the country’s economy and national security. Scheduled for 2024, China’s lunar mission aims to retrieve the first-ever samples from the moon’s far side. Additionally, plans include sending Chinese astronauts to the moon by 2030 and establishing an international lunar research station. China has made remarkable strides in its space endeavors, achieving notable success in key programs such as the independently-run manned space station Tiangong, the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, and lunar and Mars exploration initiatives. And it provoked the US to reinvigorate their space missions.

China aims to explore outer space to expand humanity’s understanding of Earth and the cosmos. Simultaneously, the program seeks to foster global consensus on responsibly utilizing outer space for peaceful purposes and ensuring its security for the benefit of humanity. Additionally, the mission includes meeting the demands of economic, scientific, and technological development, national security, and social progress.

China’s major achievements in space science include the successful operation of the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, the high-resolution earth observation system, advancements in satellite communications and broadcasting, the completion of the lunar exploration program, and the establishment of China’s own space station. Notably, the Tianwen-1 Mars probe and the Zhurong Mars rover have marked China’s entry into interplanetary exploration.

Looking ahead, China aims to integrate space science, technology, and applications to support the new development philosophy and meet high-quality development requirements. Initiatives include upgrading Long March carrier rockets for non-toxic and pollution-free launches, deploying smarter modular technology, and introducing new-generation manned carrier rockets and high-thrust solid-fuel carrier rockets.

Preparations for the Chang’e-6 lunar mission are progressing smoothly, with plans for a relay satellite deployment in early 2024. The Chang’e-8 mission in 2028 invites global collaboration for unmanned lunar expeditions, emphasizing cooperation in spacecraft launch, orbit operation, spacecraft-to-spacecraft interactions, and lunar surface exploration. The mission aims to gather valuable data for the construction of a permanent international research station on the lunar south pole by 2040, aligning with China’s broader ambition to become a major space power.

Despite China’s rapid economic growth driven by technological advancements borrowed from developed economies and Russia, lingering concerns persist. It is clear that fostering innovation, optimizing incentive structures, and refining review systems are critical for maintaining this growth. Even in sectors where China holds a leading position, such as electric vehicles, the reliance on foreign technology underscores potential gaps in achieving complete self-sufficiency. But, it’s clear, China acknowledges the pivotal role of science and technology in its growth trajectory and is unwavering in its commitment to ensuring their sustained development. Prognostications indicate that China’s future growth in high technology will involve a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, biotechnology, green technology, internet, robots, artificial intelligence, and material science. Certain analysts contend that the present-day anxiety surrounding China’s artificial intelligence breakthroughs is reminiscent of earlier concerns regarding Soviet technology developments. They propose that these concerns might potentially propel technological growth in the United States by fostering the creation of increasingly sophisticated technologies.

March 12, 2024
Russia’s Presidential Election: Putin is Ready for his “First Term”

While influential opposition leaders are either being murdered, jailed, or barred, Russia is preparing for its upcoming presidential election in the coming weeks. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has carefully crafted constitutional modifications to prolong his term in office, looks set to win his fifth election. As for the 2020 constitutional amendment, which essentially “Nullified” his prior tenure, he is officially running for another term, but the March 15–17 election will be his first under the new structure. Thanks to this clever political maneuvering, Putin is able to seize several openings, leaving his opponents with no choice but to surrender or risk certain death. The most recent victim was Alexei Navalny, who was barred from future participation in democratic elections in Russia.

In December, during a staged event in an opulently furnished Kremlin ballroom, Putin declared his candidacy while speaking with a separatist “Colonel” from the Donbas region of southeast Ukraine. He has four terms under his belt. In 2000, he won the presidency, and he was reelected in 2004, 2012, and 2018. Due to the constitution, he was not elected president during a brief tenure in between; instead, he served as prime minister and also “Super President”. As anticipated, he will serve a further six years if he prevails, as the term has been extended by constitutional revisions. His fifth term would begin with this. After that, he is eligible for a sixth term in 2030.

Since Joseph Stalin, the Soviet leader, the 71-year-old former KGB spy has already led Russia for the longest period of time. Putin’s increasingly harsh handling of opponents, critics, and antiwar demonstrators has drawn comparisons to Stalin’s “Big Terror” operations. To those who support the Kremlin, however, Putin is seen as a political “Genius” who stopped Russia from collapsing, brought billionaire oligarchs under control, and defeated Chechen insurgents. In addition, Putin’s admirers refer to him as a “Gatherer of Russian Lands,” a dignified moniker bestowed upon Russian princes and czars, for his actions in the 2008 war against Georgia, the recognition of two breakaway Georgian statelets, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and his intentions to annexe full of Ukraine.

Putin’s most vocal political rival, Alexey Navalny, passed away in an Arctic prison on February 16 in what his family, followers, and a large portion of the international community considered to be political murder. In the 2018 presidential election, which Putin won with about 78% of the vote, Navalny was not allowed to register. Further opposition activists, Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kaza-Murza, have been sentenced to eight and a half years and twenty-five years in prison, respectively, for their criticism of Putin’s war in Ukraine. Numerous opposition activists, critics, and normal Russian citizens who shared or liked antiwar comments on the internet have also been charged with crimes in thousands of cases. Tens of thousands have been detained, fined, or expelled from the nation. Russian Democracy is defined here.

This is the first three-day voting in Russian history as opposed to the usual one-day one. Additionally, this marks the debut of internet voting for voters in 29 locations. In Russia, 112 million people who are at least 18 years old are able to cast votes. Voting will also take place in occupied Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, a move that Kiev and its Western supporters have denounced as illegal. Millions of Russian citizens residing overseas, from California in the United States to the southern Kazakhstan spaceport of Baikonur, which Russia leases, are also able to cast ballots via mail, consulates, or embassies. The initial results are anticipated to be made public on March 19 and the final result on March 29. According to official estimates, the officially-expected turnout is almost as high as it was during the 2018 election, when about 68 percent of Russians cast ballots.

There’s hardly much optimism for a free and fair vote among those who follow Russian politics. Due to the widespread perception of the current United Russia party as corrupt and ineffective, Putin is contesting as an independent. It was referred to as the “Party of Crooks and Thieves” by late opposition leader Navalny. Other contenders are viewed as symbolic figures whose involvement serves mainly to demonstrate Putin’s “Popularity.” The Communist Party’s Nikolay Kharitonov is one among them.

Boris Borisovich Nadezhdin is an opposition politician who has openly condemned the war in Ukraine, said he will designate unbiased observers to supervise elections, and promised to keep appealing the rulings of the Supreme Court against him. But he’s not going to be able to run at all. Sometimes he will also in his final time.

Nobody is expecting a different result from this election; Putin is viewed as a strong leader, and he is successful in portraying this image. Additionally, his admirers claim that the Russian Federation would fall apart and pandemonium will envelop the country in his absence. The Russian nationalists are therefore standing firm beside him. His drives for “Slavic Unity” and “Russia First”. However, many disbelieve the percentage of vote he gained in elections. The unnatural death of opponents increased screening of opposing candidates, videos of election employees making dubious actions in the booth, a lot of suspicious activity raised doubts in his win. Putin, however, will still receive more than 60% of the vote in the current scenario, and all of the leaders hail him as Russia’s savior. And he will continue to be the ruler. Russia presents new conceptions of democracy that any rulers craving power can embrace.

March 11, 2024
The US Military to Construct a Port in Gaza: Will it Help Reach Humanitarian Aid to Gaza?

This is cruel punishment. Whatever the reason for the Gaza people are suffering, They are suffering it in a very cruel manner. Basic need of people is declining, there is nothing left, buildings are collapsing , the casualties by the Israeli army’s attack is skyrocketing, and the war effect is now deepening in Gaza, kids are starving, some find peace by the death. And the war of the neighbors, war for religion is getting its very disastrous situation. For the 1200 Israeli’ blood, Israel took back more than 30000 lives of Palestinians.

The conflict in Gaza appears to have no imminent resolution. Israel remains steadfast in its pursuit of complete control over the region, contributing to a prolonged war. The division among Islamic countries adds complexity, and the Western world, despite its advocacy for human rights, faces challenges in providing even humanitarian aid. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Saudi Arabia no one has been unable to reach Gaza with aid.

Israel’s reluctance to open doors for humanitarian assistance, coupled with Egypt’s cautious approach, further exacerbates the dire situation. The region appears to be ensnared in a fortress-like blockade, contending not only with external threats but also facing internal challenges, particularly from groups like Hamas. In the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs and open avenues, the looming risk of one of the world’s largest massacres hangs over Gaza.

As Prominent supporter of Israel, the United States is finally acting in response to the humanitarian situation in Gaza. President Joe Biden is set to unveil a substantial initiative in his upcoming State of the Union address, as disclosed by three senior administration officials on Thursday. This initiative entails a pivotal role for the U.S. military, tasked with establishing a temporary port in Gaza. The strategic plan leverages the distinctive capabilities of the U.S. military, aiming to construct a port or causeway without deploying troops to Gaza’s shores. The primary objective is to enhance access to essential provisions, encompassing food, water, medicine, and various other forms of aid, for the Palestinian population.

Officials emphasized, the operation is not intended to involve U.S. boots on the ground. The initiative aims to create a maritime corridor from Cyprus to Gaza in collaboration with governments and commercial partners, supplementing aid delivered through airdrops and land routes. The decision to resort to this military mission stems from concerns that Israel is not permitting sufficient aid to address the humanitarian crisis resulting from the Israel-Hamas conflict affecting 2.2 million Palestinians in Gaza. In addition to the establishment of a temporary port in Gaza, The U.S. is actively urging Israel to open more land routes, enabling quicker and more efficient assistance to reach those in need.

While the scheme, involving the construction of a temporary pier by U.S. military engineers off the coast of Gaza City, will take several weeks to implement, concerns persist that it may supply insufficient relief too late. Aid experts, while acknowledging it as a step in the right direction, argue that leveraging U.S. influence to open more land routes for humanitarian assistance would be a more effective strategy.

The Larnaca port in Cyprus will serve as the primary relief hub, facilitating aid shipments to Gaza. President Biden is set to announce this emergency mission during his State of the Union address, with the aid deliveries expected to come through a collaborative effort with like-minded countries and humanitarian partners.

Though The maritime corridor plan encounters numerous challenges, particularly in addressing how to efficiently unload, secure, and distribute the aid. Several U.S., European, and Middle Eastern officials, including four others, have indicated that many aspects of the plan are still under discussion. While smaller aid packages are expected to arrive by sea soon, a coordinated effort is required to establish a regular schedule for larger assistance shipments across the Mediterranean, a process anticipated to take 45 to 60 days.

The initial entry point for aid will be the Larnaca port in Cyprus, situated approximately 230 miles from Gaza and already equipped with advanced screening technology for Israeli officials in Cyprus to inspect deliveries. Given Gaza’s lack of a functioning port, President Biden has directed the U.S. military to assist in establishing a temporary pier, though the specific roles of other partners in this endeavor remain uncertain. Negotiations with Israel regarding a security and crowd-control mission on the beachhead are ongoing, including discussions about potential Israeli involvement in demining staging areas for the aid.

Criticism of Biden within his own party for the failure to facilitate humanitarian aid to Gaza, where a famine is looming and casualties from the conflict have reached 30,000, has intensified. The UN has warned of catastrophic levels of deprivation and starvation among over a quarter of Gaza’s population, emphasizing the urgency of action to prevent widespread famine.

Dispersing aid throughout Gaza, an active war zone with security risks for aid workers, presents a significant challenge. The multinational coalition plans to rely on the United Nations, non-governmental organizations, and other groups to ensure targeted distribution. Talks between the United Arab Emirates and Qatar with the Cypriots are underway to explore their potential contributions to the maritime corridor. While officials from both governments have not responded to requests for comment, there are reports of UAE-funded aid arriving in Gaza the following week.

March 8, 2024
Singapore’s Concert Economy: How Will Taylor Swift Contribute to the Singapore Economy?

Swifties are insane; They are determined to go to any lengths to show support for Taylor Swift. Every album, event, and show she undertakes becomes a significant economic influx. Fans are willing to spend generously, constituting a substantial contribution to the economy. This phenomenon is even humorously referred to as “Swiftonomics,” highlighting the economic influence Taylor Swift carries. Economists are delving into the field of “Swiftonomics,” recognizing the undeniable impact of a superstar on the economy.

In Singapore, Taylor Swift is performing live for the first time. As part of her world-tourist Eras Tour, this will be the first of six sold-out shows in the city-state. Swift, who helped the US economy anticipate at least $5 billion more in consumer spending, would aim to strengthen Singapore’s economy as well. Apart from Taylor Swift, numerous other international celebrities have performed on Lion City stages, and the schedule of events for the future looks exciting. Singapore is becoming the new heart of concert culture, further cementing its position as the world’s entertainment capital.

In January, the British band Coldplay staged six performances at Singapore’s National Stadium, marking a significant milestone for the city-state. With an impressive 200,000 tickets swiftly purchased, the shows achieved a record-breaking feat, becoming the highest number of tickets sold by an artist in a single day in Singapore. Serving as a key destination for Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres World Tour, this event had a profound impact on Singapore’s tourism industry.

Agoda, a leading Asia-Pacific travel platform, reported a substantial surge in search traffic for accommodations in Singapore during the concert dates. Notably, interest in these dates skyrocketed to 8.7 times higher after Coldplay initiated ticket sales in June. The surge was primarily fueled by neighboring countries, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia.

Following the announcement of the singer’s concert dates in Singapore, hotel bookings for March 2024 experienced a remarkable 10% surge, as indicated by data from hotel analytics company Smith Travel Research. With Taylor Swift performing six shows in early March, the month is poised to achieve the highest occupancy levels among the first eight months of 2024, according to data from STR.

The surge in demand extends to flights into Singapore, with Taylor Swift’s blockbuster tour visiting only three countries in the Asia-Pacific region: Japan, Australia, and Singapore. Both Singapore Airlines and budget airline Scoot confirmed to CNBC that there has been a substantial increase in demand for flights to Singapore in March, particularly from Southeast Asia. Jetstar Asia also reported a surge of approximately 20% in demand for routes connecting destinations like Bangkok, Manila, and Jakarta to Singapore.

Data from Trip.com further emphasizes this upward trend, revealing a noteworthy increase in Singapore-related bookings for the period between March 1 and 9, aligning with the concert dates. This surge is notably 275% higher than bookings recorded for the March 15 to 23 period, occurring later. Specifically, inbound flight bookings for March 1 to 9 witnessed a 186% rise, while hotel bookings experienced a remarkable 462% increase compared to the March 15 to 23 timeframe.

The anticipated impact of Taylor Swift’s concerts on Singapore’s tourism sector is substantial, with expectations of generating approximately 350 million to 500 million Singaporean dollars ($260.3 million to $371.9 million) in tourism receipts. Previously regarded mostly as a business travel hub, the Lion City is currently utilizing the significant prospects brought about by major international music festivals to advance its hotel sector. It is projected that the possibility of arranging well-known concerts will increase Singapore’s tourism income by hundreds of millions of dollars.

The resurgence of the hospitality industry in Singapore gives it the opportunity to recapture its leading position in Asia, which was briefly contested by cities in the Middle East. A shift in focus for major events, including the Asia Cup football and global expos, has gravitated towards the Middle East, resulting in substantial business losses for Singapore. The city-state has faced tough competition from destinations like Dubai and Doha, which, with recent changes to Islamic laws, have presented themselves as increasingly hospitable, diverting attention and revenue away from Singapore. However, the commencement of concerts at the start of the year is poised to help Singapore regain its standing.

While Singapore may not possess the grandeur of its Arab counterparts, it boasts several advantages over the Middle East. Its strategic location between India, China, and Australia, all considered significant economies, positions it as an ideal destination. Unlike the Middle East, which often has stringent regulations and restrictions, Singapore provides a more accessible and open environment for hosting foreign events. This makes it an attractive option for Europeans and Americans looking to organize events in Asia.

Singapore’s tourism board and culture ministry have officially acknowledged that Taylor Swift received a government grant, although specifics about any exclusivity conditions tied to the funding remain confidential. The Singapore government, however, has indicated its intention to maintain exclusivity for the event within the country. KASM chairman Keith Magnus confirmed there was an understanding that it would be an exclusive performance in Singapore. While some criticize Singapore’s approach, others view it as a strategic move with economic benefits, even if it requires a substantial government grant.

While Singapore is heavily invested in tech manufacturing and finance, travel-related services still constitute 10% of the country’s GDP. Post-pandemic, event tourism is becoming a transformative force in the travel industry, with an increasing number of individuals willing to travel for concerts or sporting events. Beyond the immediate revenue generated by concerts, hosting A-list performers can result in enduring reputational benefits for the host countries. Following Taylor Swift’s visit, Bruno Mars and South Korean pop star IU are slated to perform in Singapore.

March 3, 2024
Escalating Tensions: US Unleashes Fresh Strikes on Houthis in Yemen

After Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Islamic State, the United States has shifted its focus toward yet another extremist Islamic faction—the Houthis. This group has emerged as a substantial threat to the global trade route extending from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. The disruptive activities of the Houthis pose a significant risk to the critical trade pathway linking Asia and Europe, causing considerable financial losses for businesses worldwide.

The United States has entered the arena, initiating targeted strikes against the Houthi group to incapacitate their offensive capabilities. Reports from Centcom indicate that the US precision-targeted a land-attack cruise missile and four anti-ship missiles, positioned for launch in the Red Sea. These military actions followed coordinated strikes by both the US and the UK on Houthi targets the day before. Yahya Sarea, the Houthi group’s military spokesman, affirmed, “These attacks will not deter us from our moral, religious, and humanitarian stance in support of the resilient Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and will not go unanswered or unpunished.”

The Houthi movement, self-identifying as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), emerged as a Shia Islamist political and military entity rooted in Yemen during the 1990s. Predominantly consisting of Zaidi Shias, its leadership maintains close affiliations with the Houthi tribe. By targeting ships linked to Israel, the Houthis project an image of themselves as formidable fighters for Islam. Notably, there is an alliance between Hamas, responsible for the October 7 attack on southern Israel, and the Houthis, both receiving substantial backing from Iran. The Houthis assert their assaults on Red Sea shipping as a demonstration of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, causing disruptions in crucial shipping routes and consequential impacts on international trade.

Starting from November 19, the Houthis have seized a commercial ship in the Red Sea and subsequently directed attacks on over two dozen others using a combination of drones, missiles, and speed boats. Despite the Houthis claiming to specifically target Israeli-owned, flagged, or operated ships, or those bound for Israeli ports, a significant number of the vessels under attack have no discernible connection with Israel. Notably, even a British-linked tanker fell victim to Houthi attacks, which were attributed to “American-British aggression.” The Houthi ship attacks have significantly affected global economies, compelling shipping companies to alter routes, resulting in delivery delays, price hikes, and overall economic repercussions. Egypt reported a nearly 50% drop in Suez Canal revenue in January, accompanied by a more than one-third decrease in the number of ships navigating the vital trade route. Major shipping companies have chosen a longer route around southern Africa in order to reduce risk.

The United States and the United Kingdom initiated airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on January 11, responding to the attacks on Red Sea ships that posed threats to trade and freedom of navigation. President Joe Biden characterized the strikes as a “direct response” to safeguard these interests. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak deemed the action “necessary and proportionate” to protect global shipping. While US-led naval forces have successfully thwarted numerous attacks, the dynamics underwent a significant shift with the direct intervention of the United States in Yemen, aligning its interests with those of global shipping companies, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

If the current tensions escalate into a war, the U.S. would face a challenging scenario. The Houthi rebels exercise control over Sanaa and the northwest, including the Red Sea coastline, effectively functioning as a quasi-government with the ability to levy taxes and issue currency. Given that the majority of Yemen’s population resides in these regions, any further escalation is likely to lead to a prolonged and intricate conflict. The Houthi involvement in Yemen’s civil war traces back to 2014, endowing them with substantial experience in enduring prolonged conflicts with the official government. Their resilience has been demonstrated through years of enduring airstrikes and ground combat.

Saudi Arabia, a possible future participant in the conflict, has encountered significant Houthi attacks, prompting diplomatic endeavors to facilitate a peace accord. Despite a UN-mediated ceasefire in effect since April 2022, recent developments have diminished the likelihood of long-term stability in the region.

According to the US, Iran is actively supporting Houthi attacks on ships, which is vigorously refuted by Iran and led President Biden to send a “private message” to Tehran requesting an end to these activities. There are still ongoing claims that Iran has secretly sent weapons to the Houthis, including ballistic, cruise, and drone missiles, in violation of a UN arms embargo. According to the Italian Institute of International Political Studies, Iran has been crucial in helping the Houthis set up drone factories in Yemen. In addition, there is evidence of military direction and assistance coming from the Islamist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is embarking on a Middle East trip with scheduled meetings in Israel, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the West Bank. According to Mr. Sullivan, Blinken’s top priority will be brokering a deal between Israel and Hamas, focusing on securing the release of hostages in exchange for a temporary cessation of hostilities in Gaza. The push for de-escalation in both Gaza and the Red Sea region is expected.

In this context, the likelihood of a full-scale war akin to Iraq and Afghanistan is diminished, given the United States’ reluctance for such conflicts in the region. A settlement involving Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, and the USA appears as the most plausible outcome, given that economic interests take precedence for modern nations. The rapid rise in oil prices, compounded by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, poses further risks to the global economy. The potential costs of an escalating war would negatively impact every country, everyone will be a loser.

Sometimes, indeed, oil can play a crucial role in saving the world.

February 6, 2024
Strategic Economic Alliances: Hong Kong and Malaysia Forge Deeper Connections Despite Ongoing US-China Dynamics

Amid the challenges of the United States trade war, Hong Kong, the special administrative region of China, is grappling with a backlash. The protests for democracy, viewed as a catalyst for the deterioration of Hong Kong’s standing by the United States, have led to a significant retraction of American businesses from the region. However, China, emerging as a new superpower, is extending support to Hong Kong, ensuring the continuity of trade through the territory. In pursuit of this objective, the new government in Hong Kong is actively fostering stronger ties with Southeast Asia, especially Malaysia.

In a recent development, at a celebration commemorating the tenth anniversary of the Malaysian Chamber of Commerce, the newly appointed Chief Executive of Hong Kong, a special administrative territory of China, committed to strengthening collaboration between Malaysia and Hong Kong to support free-trade agreements among ASEAN member nations. Malaysia, a crucial member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Hong Kong’s second-largest economic partner, plays a vital role in this initiative.

Acknowledging the strategic significance of ASEAN in its comprehensive plans, Hong Kong is actively expanding its corporate engagements. Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu underscored that this pivotal collaboration goes beyond mere trade statistics. He highlighted Hong Kong’s contributions to the Economic and Technical Cooperation Work Programme under the free-trade agreement between ASEAN and Hong Kong, expressing optimism about the future. The event attracted a diverse audience, including ambassadors and representatives from over 30 international trade associations.

The Malaysian ambassador to China, Norman Bin Muhamad, who was present at the reception, expressed his hope for an intensified relationship between Malaysia and Hong Kong in the future. He emphasized that the success of this ongoing collaboration is a result of sustained and diligent efforts by all stakeholders over the years. He added, “It is our responsibility to ensure the relationship will endure and grow.”

Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu conducted a week-long tour of ASEAN nations, including Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, last year. During this tour, he oversaw the signing of 33 agreements covering various areas such as trade and commerce, investment and finance, innovation and technology, logistics, academic research, and cultural exchanges. Among these agreements were 11 deals with Malaysia, including a significant railway and property agreement with Hong Kong’s MTR Corporation for a rapid transit project connecting the city of Johor Bahru and Singapore, with an estimated cost of about 10 billion ringgit (US$2.2 billion).

Anthony Loke, Malaysia’s transport minister, expressed admiration for the property development funding model employed by Hong Kong’s MTR Corporation during the 2023 visit by Chief Executive John Lee’s delegation. Loke indicated openness to expanded collaboration with MTR Corp in various locations across Malaysia. Additionally, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore have endorsed Hong Kong’s membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free-trade bloc, comprising 15 Asia-Pacific countries, including the ASEAN group. During a meeting with consuls general of ASEAN countries, Lee reaffirmed his commitment to fostering closer ties between Hong Kong and the group.

The prevailing trend in Southeast Asia reflects a growing affinity toward China. The surge of Chinese investments in infrastructure development and technology serves as a clear indicator of a significant shift in the region, where China is gradually assuming a more central role. Notably, Hong Kong is no longer detached from China, and the actions of the Hong Kong premier should be interpreted in conjunction with China’s strategic movements in the region.

January 26, 2024