Tag: Yemen

  • The Yemen Question: Will the U.S. Ever Call It Done?

    The Yemen Question: Will the U.S. Ever Call It Done?

    Yemen now stands as the last remaining stronghold of the “Axis of Resistance”. Syria is under a pro-Turkey government, while Iraq and Lebanon have seen their pro-Iranian factions weakened. However, Yemen’s Houthi-led government continues to pose a significant challenge to both the U.S. and Israel.

    Positioned along critical international trade routes, Yemen’s instability threatens not only U.S. and Israeli interests but also global commerce. Adding to these concerns, the Houthis—now the only group openly confronting Israel—could attract broader support across the global Muslim community, a prospect that would deeply unsettle Riyadh, Washington’s most significant partner in the Muslim world.

    Under the Trump administration, Yemen has become an increasingly central focus for the U.S. Washington appears to be taking the conflict more seriously, raising the likelihood of a more aggressive military response—one that could escalate the situation to an entirely new level.

    Missiles Keep Flying

    In recent days, the United States has intensified its airstrike campaign against Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, targeting key strongholds. According to Houthi sources, the strikes in the capital, Sanaa, and the northwestern city of Saada have resulted in over 50 deaths, including civilians. In response, the Houthis—designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and acting as Yemen’s de facto government—have escalated their attacks, launching ballistic missiles at Israel’s international airport and targeting U.S. ships in the Red Sea.

    Unyielding Houthi Troubles

    This escalation could signal the beginning of a prolonged conflict. While the Trump administration’s Middle East strategy appears to be advancing, the Houthis remain a strong force, even as reports suggest that Iran has scaled back its direct support. The group has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to withstand sustained military pressure—first from Saudi Arabia during Yemen’s civil war, which began in 2014 and was largely halted by a fragile ceasefire in 2022, and more recently from U.S. and U.K. airstrikes. Their resilience suggests that further escalation is likely.

    After Hamas’ brutal raid on  Israel, and the war in Gaza d, the Houthis launched missiles at Israel and targeted international shipping lanes in the Red Sea, claiming to act in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinian cause. Their actions strengthened their recognition and support within Yemen and across parts of the Arab world.

    During the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas earlier this year, the Houthis temporarily halted their attacks. However, with the resumption of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, they renewed their missile strikes on Israel, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes on Yemen. As a result, the conflict has returned to its previous intensity.

    Will Trump Finish It?

    The Houthi-controlled part of Yemen is no match for the military power of the United States and Israel, nor does it compare to Saudi Arabia’s forces. However, engaging the Houthis on their home terrain presents significant challenges, similar to the difficulties the U.S. faced in Afghanistan. This has made Washington hesitant to commit ground forces. Still, the ongoing Houthi threat has become an increasing burden for two of America’s key regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, making it harder to ignore.

    Earlier this week, former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, asserting that the Houthis would be completely annihilated. For the Trump administration, striking the Houthis offers a chance to project American military strength. However, whether airstrikes alone can effectively weaken the Houthis remains uncertain.

    Trump also issued a warning to Iran, demanding that it halt the supply of weapons to the Houthis and making it clear that Tehran would be held accountable for any attacks carried out by the group. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, he called for an immediate end to Iran’s military support for the Houthis.

    Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denied on Friday that Tehran directly controls proxy forces in the region, insisting that the groups it supports operate independently. Analysts argue that while Iran may not dictate Houthi decision-making, its support has significantly bolstered the group’s military capabilities. Iran maintains that the Houthis act autonomously, and to some extent, experts concur. However, Iran and the Houthis share strategic interests, coordinate policies, and exchange intelligence, even if Tehran does not issue direct orders.

    What happens next?

    The Houthis continue to draw widespread support across the Islamic world, but they have tightened their grip on Yemen through increasing repression. As living conditions worsen, more Yemenis are demanding their removal.

    For over a decade, the United Nations has labeled Yemen one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The crisis deepened this year when former U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, citing their attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes and Israel. This designation, along with new sanctions, has severely restricted humanitarian aid.

    The United States may respond by adopting a strategy similar to its approach in Syria. Just as it relied on Turkey to counterbalance forces there, Washington could support a rival faction through Saudi Arabia or the UAE to weaken Houthi control. If Iran, like Russia in Syria, scales back its support, this strategy could enable the U.S. to neutralize the Houthi threat without direct military intervention. A full-scale invasion remains unlikely, as Washington seeks to avoid another costly conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan. However, Trump—a businessman with an eye for strategic assets—may view Yemen’s geopolitical significance differently.

  • Can Yemen’s Crisis Find a Resolution, Like Syria’s?

    Can Yemen’s Crisis Find a Resolution, Like Syria’s?

    The Arab Spring, fueled by Islamist populist movements advocating for Islamic rule and opposing dictatorial regimes, plunged many nations into chaos. This upheaval fractured several countries, leaving them embroiled in civil wars that have lasted over 13 years. Despite numerous peace talks over this period, most efforts ended in stalemates. Meanwhile, several global powers exploited these conflicts, strengthening their influence. Iran, in particular, expanded its regional power by funding and directing proxy groups involved in civil wars across various nations.

    However, The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is helping various factions in war to break long-standing deadlocks. Syria offers a key example. Despite significant risks, Israel-backed forces successfully challenged Iran-aligned factions, collaborating with allies like Turkey to oust the Iran-backed regime and ultimately reach a resolution. A similar shift appears to be unfolding in Yemen, where Israel’s growing focus on the region has sparked renewed optimism that a resolution to the prolonged conflict may finally be within sight.

    Yemen, with its strategic geopolitical location, once served as a vital trade hub between the East and West. For much of its history, Yemeni cities were among the wealthiest in the Arabian Peninsula, flourishing along key trade routes. However, its strategic importance made Yemen vulnerable to superpowers, and it eventually fell under the control of Islamic kingdoms and European powers. The modern state of Yemen, as we know it today, was established in 1990 following the unification of the previously divided South and North. Yet, foreign influence and interests did not diminish. Saudi Arabia and the United States continued to pursue their agendas in Yemen—Saudi Arabia aiming to create a Shia-free region, while the U.S. sought to maintain control over this vital geopolitical location.

    Ali Abdullah Saleh, the leader who unified Yemen, soon began treating the country as his personal fiefdom. However, his failure to build strong state institutions hampered Yemen’s development into a stable nation. Instead, Yemen’s political landscape became defined by a fragile form of collaborative governance, where competing tribal, regional, religious, and political interests coexisted through an unspoken arrangement. This informal structure was underpinned by a power-sharing agreement among three key figures: President Saleh, who controlled the state; Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, who commanded the majority of Yemen’s armed forces; and Abdullah ibn Husayn al-Ahmar, the leader of the Islamist al-Islah party, who served as a Saudi-appointed broker overseeing transnational patronage payments to various political factions, including influential tribal leaders.

    Misgovernance, internal divisions, and deteriorating living conditions in Yemen created a fertile environment for terrorism, turning the country into a recruitment hub for various Islamic organizations. Despite the worsening situation, Saleh managed to hold on to power through fraudulent elections. During the Arab Spring, multiple groups united in opposition to him, sparking a new wave of civil war. However, the opposition quickly fragmented, and as various factions seized control of different regions, each pursuing its own agenda, Yemen was pushed further into crisis, edging closer to collapse.

    Like in Syria, Iran plays a significant role in Yemen by backing the Houthis, a group of militants advocating for the implementation of Shia Islamic law. The Houthis are notorious for their attacks on maritime shipping routes, as well as for their strikes on Saudi oil refineries and their solidarity with Hamas and Iran in their opposition to Israel. They control a large portion of Yemen, primarily in the former northern part of the country. For years, international watchdogs and superpowers largely avoided engaging with the Houthis or seeking resolutions in Yemen. However, as the Houthis continue their attacks on Israel, it’s increasingly likely that Israel will retaliate. Israel may follow a strategy similar to the one it used in Syria, which could bring hope for Yemen. In Syria, Israel successfully targeted Hezbollah fighters, aligned with Iran, forcing them to collapse and paving the way for forces backed by the United States ally Turkey to topple the Iran-supported regime, ultimately bringing an end to the civil war.

    In Yemen, Israel may target the Houthis with the support of its intelligence agencies, while Saudi-backed troops, potentially bolstered by U.S. assistance, could attempt to seize control of Sanaa. However, Yemen presents a unique challenge for Israel due to its geographical distance and the significant cultural and social differences from Syria.

    Yemen is now fragmented into at least six parts, with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States playing key roles within the country. While Iran and its Houthi allies remain entrenched, other factions could unite in the conflict. If Israel were to target the Houthis, opposing groups or their coalition partners could likely execute a relatively straightforward mission. This would involve a surgical strike strategy and targeted attacks similar to those that severely weakened Hezbollah by eliminating key leaders. If successful, the Houthis would be significantly diminished, reducing their threat. Although the timeline for such an outcome remains uncertain, if the Houthis persist in their missile attacks against Israel, a resolution will eventually emerge. This could provide an opportunity for opposition groups in Yemen to retake the capital and reunify the nation.

  • Israel Aims to End the “Axis of Resistance”

    Israel Aims to End the “Axis of Resistance”

    Hamas lies in ruins, Hezbollah is in disarray, and the Houthis are increasingly under attack. Iran, the chief backer of these groups, has lost both its key strategist and its revered military leader to assassination. The so-called Axis of Resistance – formed as a Shia military coalition in solidarity with the Palestinian cause, with the goal of destroying the Jewish state and asserting Shia Islamic dominance – now faces an existential crisis. Following the unprecedented assault it suffered on October 7, Israel, with precise and methodical force, has embarked on a campaign to eliminate all remaining threats. Its multi-front offensive is not only altering the regional balance but driving this once formidable alliance to the brink of collapse.

    Israel remains resolute in its campaign, despite criticism from international media, political groups, and human rights organizations, as it continues to prioritize its security. The Israeli military presses forward, targeting key Hamas leaders, even those who believe they are safe outside Gaza, showing little regard for the ongoing hostage situation. However, the expansion of operations into Lebanon to target Hezbollah was less anticipated. Hezbollah presents a more geographically and strategically challenging position for Israel, as it operates from Lebanon with access to Iranian support and maintains a robust infrastructure, often blending into civilian populations.

    However, Israel’s intelligence apparatus, including Mossad, has delivered significant blows to Hezbollah, which could shatter the group’s confidence and operational strength. On September 17th and 18th, a coordinated electronic attack using pager bombs killed several Hezbollah operatives. There were also reports following the deaths of several high-ranking leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s longtime commander, along with other key figures. Although Hezbollah denies it, Israel claims to have also killed Abu Ali Rida, Hezbollah’s last remaining senior military commander. Meanwhile, Israel continues to launch precise missile strikes against Hezbollah targets, including second-tier leaders and munitions, in contrast to Hezbollah’s less effective retaliatory fire.

    Beyond military action, Israel is reportedly attempting to strategically exploit divisions within Lebanon’s population, particularly among Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shia Muslims who migrated from the south. Social discourse is filled with reflections on Lebanon’s rich history and its decline, attributed to the influx of this migrated population. Lebanese expatriates lament the country’s downfall, blaming these sectarian divisions, which further weaken Lebanon’s defenses against cross-border actions. This narrative helps to portray Israel’s actions as targeting Hezbollah, not Lebanon itself.

    Unlike in the past, Sunni Arab nations, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, appear unwilling to intervene in Lebanon’s favor. Previously, they had united to fight against Israel in solidarity with Palestine. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia, a Sunni powerhouse, is likely content as Israel begins to target the Houthis in Yemen – another Iranian-backed faction that has fought against Saudi Arabia. The Houthis, who previously launched missiles at key Saudi targets and inflicted significant losses, have also attacked Israeli-linked ships and even launched missiles toward Israel, making them the next likely target of Israeli strikes. Israel has already initiated attacks on the Houthis, and, much like with Hezbollah, its approach appears calculated and deliberate.

    Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq, two collapsed countries due to civil war and foreign interests, are also expected to attack Israel in solidarity with Palestine as part of Iran’s axis of resistance. Although they are trained and supported by Tehran, they currently pose less of a direct threat to Israel. Israel will likely neutralize them with relative ease, as it has done with similar threats in the past.

    The leader of the axis of resistance, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is now facing its greatest setback. They are losing control over other states through their Shia military units due to Israel’s actions. And It is a humiliation for them, as Israel’s reach extends within borders to eliminate key leaders of these militant groups who seek refuge in Iran. No Iranian city is now beyond Israel’s reach, making the country increasingly vulnerable. Some even accuse Israel of orchestrating the killing of former president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash. Israel is also reportedly working to destabilize the Islamic Republic through information warfare, posing a significant threat to the very existence of the regime.

    The Israel-Hamas conflict, often labeled by the media as the Israel-Palestine conflict, is increasingly being viewed as an Israel-Iran conflict. No Arab countries are showing interest in this situation, not even the official governments of Lebanon and Yemen. Iran and its proxies, known as the axis of resistance, are isolated and now feeling the full wrath of Israel.

  • Why Is Saudi Arabia Concerned About the Houthis Attack on Israel?

    Why Is Saudi Arabia Concerned About the Houthis Attack on Israel?

    Pro-Islamic and pro-Palestinian social media accounts across various platforms and countries are celebrating the Houthi militants claim of breaching Israel’s missile defense system and reaching central Israel, near Tel Aviv, with a modern ballistic missile. The reported strike on September 15th caused no casualties but captured headlines due to its strategic significance. A militant group from Yemen launched the missile over Saudi Arabia, breaching Israel’s renowned defense system and reaching the vicinity of Tel Aviv. For the Houthis, this was a notable achievement in their “Holy War”, one Israel likely did not anticipate. However, this development has heightened tensions in Saudi Arabia, the leading nation in the Islamic world and home to its most sacred sites. Saudi Arabia, already engaged in conflict with the Houthis, now faces an increasing security risk. The Houthis striking capabilities and resilience represent a significant threat to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

    Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority Islamic nation that supports Yemen’s official government in its battle against the Shia-majority Houthis, believes that Iran, a Shia power, has been supplying arms to the group and is convinced that the recent strikes were carried out with Iran’s assistance, despite the Houthis claiming they used homemade weapons. The Sunni-Shia conflict has deep historical roots, spanning centuries of violence and mutual hostility, much like the long-standing conflict between Muslims and Jews. Now, Saudi Arabia views the recent Houthi attacks as a growing threat to its own security. The Houthis advanced capabilities, including their weapons and technology, have surprised many observers. Additionally, the group’s involvement in attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea has significantly reduced traffic on this crucial route, leading to increased maritime transport costs and disruptions to the global economy by affecting the Suez Canal. Given these impacts, Saudi Arabia presented Houthis as not just a regional threat, but a global one. 

    In Sana’a, the capital of Yemen and a Houthi stronghold where the rebel group coordinates its attacks on shipping, the leadership celebrated Sunday’s missile strike on Israel, which landed in an open area near Ben Gurion International Airport. They hailed the strike as a breakthrough, attributing it to the efforts of Yemeni technicians, and vowed that more attacks would follow. Prior to the strike, the Houthis had issued warnings of an impending assault on Israel. Previous missile attacks by the group had failed to penetrate deep into Israeli airspace, with one missile in March landing in an open area near the Red Sea port of Eilat. In July, an Iranian-made drone attack on Tel Aviv killed one person and wounded ten others. During Sunday’s strike, Israel activated its Arrow and Iron Dome defense systems, though it remains unclear whether any of the interception attempts were successful.

    Saudi Arabia now faces an urgent need to take stronger action against the Houthis, as the threat they pose could be as significant to the kingdom as it is to Israel, if not greater. A potential attack on Saudi territory is a growing concern, especially given previous incidents. The kingdom also wants to prevent the Houthis from gaining further support and enhancing their reputation for bravery in the name of Islam. If the Houthis gain more support in Yemen, the Saudi-backed official government could be in jeopardy. However, before launching any strikes, Saudi Arabia is likely to seek U.S. approval, and more military operations are anticipated. Saudi leaders are calling for a more robust approach than mere pinprick bombings to effectively sever the Houthis supply lines.

    Saudi Arabia has also pointed to Iran’s interference in Arab nations such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, expressing disappointment that Tehran has failed to uphold the diplomatic agreement it reached with Saudi Arabia in China two years ago. The kingdom had hoped Iran would take a more proactive role in fostering regional stability and resolving disputes, not just with Saudi Arabia but across the broader region. However, the escalating tensions are likely to exacerbate the Middle East crisis, potentially drawing in additional parties, including the U.S. and the U.K. The Houthis are likely to receive more support, and Saudi Arabia may bear higher costs than Israel in this situation.

  • Escalating Tensions: US Unleashes Fresh Strikes on Houthis in Yemen

    Escalating Tensions: US Unleashes Fresh Strikes on Houthis in Yemen

    After Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and the Islamic State, the United States has shifted its focus toward yet another extremist Islamic faction—the Houthis. This group has emerged as a substantial threat to the global trade route extending from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. The disruptive activities of the Houthis pose a significant risk to the critical trade pathway linking Asia and Europe, causing considerable financial losses for businesses worldwide.

    The United States has entered the arena, initiating targeted strikes against the Houthi group to incapacitate their offensive capabilities. Reports from Centcom indicate that the US precision-targeted a land-attack cruise missile and four anti-ship missiles, positioned for launch in the Red Sea. These military actions followed coordinated strikes by both the US and the UK on Houthi targets the day before. Yahya Sarea, the Houthi group’s military spokesman, affirmed, “These attacks will not deter us from our moral, religious, and humanitarian stance in support of the resilient Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and will not go unanswered or unpunished.”

    The Houthi movement, self-identifying as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), emerged as a Shia Islamist political and military entity rooted in Yemen during the 1990s. Predominantly consisting of Zaidi Shias, its leadership maintains close affiliations with the Houthi tribe. By targeting ships linked to Israel, the Houthis project an image of themselves as formidable fighters for Islam. Notably, there is an alliance between Hamas, responsible for the October 7 attack on southern Israel, and the Houthis, both receiving substantial backing from Iran. The Houthis assert their assaults on Red Sea shipping as a demonstration of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, causing disruptions in crucial shipping routes and consequential impacts on international trade.

    Starting from November 19, the Houthis have seized a commercial ship in the Red Sea and subsequently directed attacks on over two dozen others using a combination of drones, missiles, and speed boats. Despite the Houthis claiming to specifically target Israeli-owned, flagged, or operated ships, or those bound for Israeli ports, a significant number of the vessels under attack have no discernible connection with Israel. Notably, even a British-linked tanker fell victim to Houthi attacks, which were attributed to “American-British aggression.”  The Houthi ship attacks have significantly affected global economies, compelling shipping companies to alter routes, resulting in delivery delays, price hikes, and overall economic repercussions. Egypt reported a nearly 50% drop in Suez Canal revenue in January, accompanied by a more than one-third decrease in the number of ships navigating the vital trade route. Major shipping companies have chosen a longer route around southern Africa in order to reduce risk.  

    The United States and the United Kingdom initiated airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on January 11, responding to the attacks on Red Sea ships that posed threats to trade and freedom of navigation. President Joe Biden characterized the strikes as a “direct response” to safeguard these interests. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak deemed the action “necessary and proportionate” to protect global shipping. While US-led naval forces have successfully thwarted numerous attacks, the dynamics underwent a significant shift with the direct intervention of the United States in Yemen, aligning its interests with those of global shipping companies, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

    If the current tensions escalate into a war, the U.S. would face a challenging scenario. The Houthi rebels exercise control over Sanaa and the northwest, including the Red Sea coastline, effectively functioning as a quasi-government with the ability to levy taxes and issue currency. Given that the majority of Yemen’s population resides in these regions, any further escalation is likely to lead to a prolonged and intricate conflict. The Houthi involvement in Yemen’s civil war traces back to 2014, endowing them with substantial experience in enduring prolonged conflicts with the official government. Their resilience has been demonstrated through years of enduring airstrikes and ground combat.

    Saudi Arabia, a possible future participant in the conflict, has encountered significant Houthi attacks, prompting diplomatic endeavors to facilitate a peace accord. Despite a UN-mediated ceasefire in effect since April 2022, recent developments have diminished the likelihood of long-term stability in the region.

    According to the US, Iran is actively supporting Houthi attacks on ships, which is vigorously refuted by Iran and led President Biden to send a “private message” to Tehran requesting an end to these activities. There are still ongoing claims that Iran has secretly sent weapons to the Houthis, including ballistic, cruise, and drone missiles, in violation of a UN arms embargo. According to the Italian Institute of International Political Studies, Iran has been crucial in helping the Houthis set up drone factories in Yemen. In addition, there is evidence of military direction and assistance coming from the Islamist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.

    Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is embarking on a Middle East trip with scheduled meetings in Israel, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the West Bank. According to Mr. Sullivan, Blinken’s top priority will be brokering a deal between Israel and Hamas, focusing on securing the release of hostages in exchange for a temporary cessation of hostilities in Gaza. The push for de-escalation in both Gaza and the Red Sea region is expected.

    In this context, the likelihood of a full-scale war akin to Iraq and Afghanistan is diminished, given the United States’ reluctance for such conflicts in the region. A settlement involving Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, and the USA appears as the most plausible outcome, given that economic interests take precedence for modern nations. The rapid rise in oil prices, compounded by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, poses further risks to the global economy. The potential costs of an escalating war would negatively impact every country, everyone will be a loser. 

    Sometimes, indeed, oil can play a crucial role in saving the world.