The Yemen Question: Will the U.S. Ever Call It Done?

Yemen now stands as the last remaining stronghold of the “Axis of Resistance”. Syria is under a pro-Turkey government, while Iraq and Lebanon have seen their pro-Iranian factions weakened. However, Yemen’s Houthi-led government continues to pose a significant challenge to both the U.S. and Israel.

Positioned along critical international trade routes, Yemen’s instability threatens not only U.S. and Israeli interests but also global commerce. Adding to these concerns, the Houthis—now the only group openly confronting Israel—could attract broader support across the global Muslim community, a prospect that would deeply unsettle Riyadh, Washington’s most significant partner in the Muslim world.

Under the Trump administration, Yemen has become an increasingly central focus for the U.S. Washington appears to be taking the conflict more seriously, raising the likelihood of a more aggressive military response—one that could escalate the situation to an entirely new level.

Missiles Keep Flying

In recent days, the United States has intensified its airstrike campaign against Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, targeting key strongholds. According to Houthi sources, the strikes in the capital, Sanaa, and the northwestern city of Saada have resulted in over 50 deaths, including civilians. In response, the Houthis—designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and acting as Yemen’s de facto government—have escalated their attacks, launching ballistic missiles at Israel’s international airport and targeting U.S. ships in the Red Sea.

Unyielding Houthi Troubles

This escalation could signal the beginning of a prolonged conflict. While the Trump administration’s Middle East strategy appears to be advancing, the Houthis remain a strong force, even as reports suggest that Iran has scaled back its direct support. The group has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to withstand sustained military pressure—first from Saudi Arabia during Yemen’s civil war, which began in 2014 and was largely halted by a fragile ceasefire in 2022, and more recently from U.S. and U.K. airstrikes. Their resilience suggests that further escalation is likely.

After Hamas’ brutal raid on  Israel, and the war in Gaza d, the Houthis launched missiles at Israel and targeted international shipping lanes in the Red Sea, claiming to act in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinian cause. Their actions strengthened their recognition and support within Yemen and across parts of the Arab world.

During the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas earlier this year, the Houthis temporarily halted their attacks. However, with the resumption of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, they renewed their missile strikes on Israel, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes on Yemen. As a result, the conflict has returned to its previous intensity.

Will Trump Finish It?

The Houthi-controlled part of Yemen is no match for the military power of the United States and Israel, nor does it compare to Saudi Arabia’s forces. However, engaging the Houthis on their home terrain presents significant challenges, similar to the difficulties the U.S. faced in Afghanistan. This has made Washington hesitant to commit ground forces. Still, the ongoing Houthi threat has become an increasing burden for two of America’s key regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, making it harder to ignore.

Earlier this week, former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, asserting that the Houthis would be completely annihilated. For the Trump administration, striking the Houthis offers a chance to project American military strength. However, whether airstrikes alone can effectively weaken the Houthis remains uncertain.

Trump also issued a warning to Iran, demanding that it halt the supply of weapons to the Houthis and making it clear that Tehran would be held accountable for any attacks carried out by the group. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, he called for an immediate end to Iran’s military support for the Houthis.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denied on Friday that Tehran directly controls proxy forces in the region, insisting that the groups it supports operate independently. Analysts argue that while Iran may not dictate Houthi decision-making, its support has significantly bolstered the group’s military capabilities. Iran maintains that the Houthis act autonomously, and to some extent, experts concur. However, Iran and the Houthis share strategic interests, coordinate policies, and exchange intelligence, even if Tehran does not issue direct orders.

What happens next?

The Houthis continue to draw widespread support across the Islamic world, but they have tightened their grip on Yemen through increasing repression. As living conditions worsen, more Yemenis are demanding their removal.

For over a decade, the United Nations has labeled Yemen one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The crisis deepened this year when former U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, citing their attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes and Israel. This designation, along with new sanctions, has severely restricted humanitarian aid.

The United States may respond by adopting a strategy similar to its approach in Syria. Just as it relied on Turkey to counterbalance forces there, Washington could support a rival faction through Saudi Arabia or the UAE to weaken Houthi control. If Iran, like Russia in Syria, scales back its support, this strategy could enable the U.S. to neutralize the Houthi threat without direct military intervention. A full-scale invasion remains unlikely, as Washington seeks to avoid another costly conflict like Iraq or Afghanistan. However, Trump—a businessman with an eye for strategic assets—may view Yemen’s geopolitical significance differently.