Trump’s Talks Proposal: A Lifeline for Iran or a Political Trap?
Iran is grappling with a worsening political and economic crisis. Over the past year, international setbacks have eroded its influence in the Middle East, while divisions between reformists and conservatives have sharpened. The economy is in turmoil, and growing public discontent poses an increasing challenge to the regime’s authority.
The election of moderate-reformist Masoud Pezeshkian after the death of Ebrahim Raisi was a major blow to conservatives, who have struggled to accept the outcome. From the start, the new government was on unstable footing, and tensions have now reached a breaking point. With no clear path forward, the country stands on the brink of deeper instability.
Amid this turmoil, Iran’s strongest adversary has made a dramatic move. In a surprising turn, U.S. President Donald Trump claims to have sent a letter to Iran’s leadership, proposing to restart nuclear negotiations. The move is especially striking given Trump’s own role in worsening Iran’s crisis during his first term—pulling out of the nuclear deal and imposing harsh sanctions that continue to strangle the economy. Now, as Iran struggles with internal and external pressure, Trump’s offer is widely seen as a calculated attempt to exploit Tehran’s vulnerabilities.
Political Crisis in Iran
Over the past month, Iran’s conservative-dominated parliament has flexed its power against the reformist-leaning administration, removing key figures from the government. It impeached and dismissed Abdolnaser Hemmati, the experienced economy minister, and forced out Mohammad Javad Zarif, the vice president and the most prominent reformist in the administration.
Both moves were clear challenges to President Masoud Pezeshkian’s authority. Yet, with the economy struggling under the weight of U.S. sanctions, the 85-year-old supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has shown no intention of stepping in to support Pezeshkian.
Emboldened, the parliament is now summoning 11 more ministers for questioning, demanding answers to 49 inquiries about their performance—an apparent effort to further pressure and weaken Pezeshkian’s government.
Pezeshkian to Step Down?
Speculation is mounting that Masoud Pezeshkian, known for his emotional temperament and strong sense of integrity, may soon resign. If he does, his departure would serve as confirmation that Iran’s deep state—what some refer to as the shadow government—will not tolerate any shift in power.
Pezeshkian has made it clear whom he holds responsible for his predicament. In a remarkably candid speech, he finally asserted himself, revealing that he had advocated for negotiations with the West, only to be overruled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He admitted that the matter was settled and that no further discussions would take place.
He emphasized that his stance had always been in favor of negotiations, but now he had to follow the framework set by the supreme leader. He acknowledged that once the supreme leader determined a course of action, it was necessary to adapt to it and find a way forward.
Since taking office, Pezeshkian noted, his government has faced severe shortages in energy, water, and electricity, along with massive debts to the agricultural sector for wheat, the healthcare system, and pension payments. His efforts to ease pressure on women regarding the hijab have also met constant resistance. On Saturday, he issued yet another apology for ongoing energy shortages.
Trump’s Letter
While economic mismanagement and poverty dominate much of Iran’s political discourse, the deeper struggle remains its stance toward the West. Conservatives continue to see Trump and his ally, Israel, as not only untrustworthy but actively working toward regime change in Tehran. Just a week ago, there was little doubt that Trump had no intention of cooperating with Iran—he had repeatedly vowed harsher measures against the country and maintained a staunchly pro-Saudi Arabia and pro-Israel stance, dashing any hopes reformists had of engagement. But suddenly, a letter from Trump emerged, seeking talks—a move that raised hopes among reformists while stoking fears among conservatives that it could shift political momentum in their rivals’ favor.
If Trump’s letter imposes strict conditions for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, conservatives will argue that Washington’s demands are far too excessive. Yet, if Tehran rejects the offer outright, it risks escalating tensions to the point where an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites becomes increasingly likely. Meanwhile, greater economic sanctions would further devastate the lives of ordinary Iranians, potentially triggering mass protests against the regime—protests that could grow to a level capable of toppling the already unpopular Islamic Republic.
A Lifeline and a Trap
For reformists, however, the letter represents a lifeline—perhaps the only chance to rescue Iran’s ailing economy. They view negotiations as essential and believe they, rather than conservatives, are better suited to lead such talks. This means Trump’s move is not just about diplomacy; it is a direct challenge to Iran’s internal political balance, exacerbating the divide between reformists and conservatives.
Many in Iran see the letter as a calculated act of psychological warfare—an attempt to corner Tehran into either accepting difficult terms or rejecting talks entirely, further deepening domestic fractures and accelerating the crisis between Iran and the West. A well-laid trap, courtesy of Donald Trump.
