Turkmenistan Eyes a Future in the Middle Corridor
For decades, Turkmenistan has stood apart—an authoritarian state wrapped in bureaucracy and wary of foreign influence. Visas are notoriously difficult to obtain, and for many Turkmen citizens, the prospect of traveling abroad remains out of reach. Since breaking from Moscow, its leadership has upheld a policy of strict isolation, maintaining a state-controlled economy and a political system defined by secrecy.
But as Central Asia’s geopolitical currents shift, Turkmenistan is beginning to reorient itself. No longer content with isolation, Ashgabat is making calculated moves to integrate into the region’s expanding trade networks. With East-West commerce surging through the Middle Corridor, the government is channeling resources into infrastructure projects that could turn the country from a reclusive state into a key transit hub.
Path to Integration
In early February, Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry announced that its officials had participated in a virtual meeting with counterparts from Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Romania to discuss enhancing East-West trade connectivity. These countries are key partners in the Middle Corridor, which links China and Kazakhstan to Europe while bypassing Russian territory. According to the ministry, Ashgabat is preparing to sign a quadripartite agreement to establish a new trade route through the Middle Corridor, connecting the Caspian and Black Seas. The agreement is expected to play a crucial role in facilitating cargo transport between Central Asia and Europe.
However, progress on the transit deal may not be swift. Turkmenistan has a history of unpredictable negotiations, as evidenced by its prolonged pricing dispute with Turkey over a gas swap deal originally agreed upon in early 2024. After months of back-and-forth, the gas flow is now set to begin on March 1, with Turkmenistan expected to supply 1.3 billion cubic meters by the end of 2025.
The government is ramping up infrastructure development with an emphasis on aligning it with key trade routes. According to the government-affiliated Turkmenportal, a new airport near the village of Jebel in western Balkan province is nearing completion. Strategically positioned along the railway linking Ashgabat to the Caspian port city of Turkmenbashy, the airport features a 3,200-meter runway and is primarily intended for air cargo, though it may also accommodate passenger flights. Turkmenportal reports that the facility is expected to boost trade, increase transport capacity, and support the country’s broader economic ambitions.
The Middle Corridor
The Middle Corridor, an important international trade route, connects China, a major global production hub, to Europe, one of the world’s largest markets. It passes through Kazakhstan, crosses the Caspian Sea by ship, and continues through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. This route serves as an alternative to the Northern Corridor through Russia and the congested maritime passage via the Suez Canal. Despite the Caspian Sea crossing, the Middle Corridor remains the shortest land connection between Western China and Europe. China has invested heavily in its infrastructure, completing the Trans-Kazakhstan railway—which runs east to west across Kazakhstan—in 2014 and inaugurating the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, which links the Caucasus region, three years later.
After the Ukraine war began, cargo traffic along the Middle Corridor—bypassing Russian and Ukrainian territory—surged, reaching 3.2 million tons in 2022 as trade shifted away from the Northern Corridor. However, the route still faces challenges, including limited port capacity in the Caspian Sea, insufficient railway infrastructure, and persistent geopolitical tensions along the transit countries. While Russia plays a minimal role in this corridor, Turkey has positioned itself as a key player through the Organization of Turkic States, driving a six-fold increase in cargo transport over the past decade.
Despite its strategic location, Turkmenistan remains outside the Middle Corridor, which primarily runs through Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Decades of neglect, compounded by the country’s insular and ultra-conservative politics, left its transportation infrastructure underdeveloped, limiting regional trade integration. However, Ashgabat is now ramping up infrastructure projects, positioning itself for potential connectivity with key trade routes. Strengthened transport links could not only facilitate energy exports to China but also provide a more efficient route for delivering Turkmenistan’s vast natural gas reserves to energy-hungry Western markets.
What Will It Deliver?
Turkmenistan’s economy is still recovering from the 2014 collapse in hydrocarbon prices, a downturn further exacerbated by prolonged low gas prices, the suspension of gas exports to Russia between 2016 and 2019, and poor agricultural yields. The country remains heavily reliant on natural gas, oil, and petrochemicals—sectors in which Russia is also a dominant player with limited demand for Turkmen exports. As Russia’s regional influence declines, Turkmenistan is exploring alternative economic partnerships. Despite possessing the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, its investment climate remains high risk, particularly for U.S. foreign direct investment. Strengthening ties with the Middle Corridor could boost investment in Turkmenistan, improve its connectivity, and create broader economic opportunities.
