Will China Push the Thai Land Bridge Project to Reality?

China’s interest in the Indian Ocean is as strong as its interest in the South China Sea. The Indian Ocean connects China to Europe, the Middle East, and its future key market, Africa. However, China’s route to the Indian Ocean is increasingly threatened, as it relies on major U.S. allies in the region – Singapore and Malaysia, along with Indonesia, which share the Malacca Strait. This narrow passage connects the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. Interestingly, at the entrance of the Malacca Strait, India is establishing a strategic presence by building a port city, effectively positioning itself as a gatekeeper for this vital route.

In this context, the discussion of the Thai Land Bridge Project has resurfaced as an alternative passage that connects the Gulf of Thailand, part of the South China Sea, with the Andaman Sea, part of the Indian Ocean. The project promises to reduce distance and costs for ships navigating traditionally congested routes. For China, it offers greater access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing Singapore and U.S.-controlled gates. For Thailand, the project could bring significant economic benefits, boosting its wealth and positioning it as a leading player in Southeast Asia, potentially diminishing the strategic importance of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore.

The revived Kra Canal project, now known as the Land Bridge Project, proposes an alternative to digging a canal similar to the Panama Canal through the Kra Isthmus, the narrowest part of the Malay Peninsula. Instead, it plans to build two deep-sea ports in Ranong and Chumphon provinces. These ports would be connected by 90 kilometers of highways, railways, and pipelines across the Kra Isthmus. The project requires substantial investment, time, and engineering. China, with its engineering capabilities and funding, is well-positioned to support the project. The Land Bridge Project has gained renewed enthusiasm for its expected boost to the southern Thai economy. And The passage would alleviate some of the congestion in the Malacca Strait, a crucial transport route for a significant portion of China’s crude oil imports from the Middle East and raw materials from Africa, with approximately 94,000 ships passing through or using its 40-plus ports each year.

As political events in Thailand unfold and the gap between the royal-backed government and the public widens, it is anticipated that the new Thai Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, from a prominent political family with royal support, will take extensive measures to gain public support. The Thai government under Paetongtarn is expected to pursue large infrastructure projects to enhance her public image and contribute to Thailand’s economy. It is also clear that Paetongtarn is likely to continue her predecessors’ efforts to strengthen economic ties with Beijing. Therefore, the current political climate in Thailand appears favorable for China to intervene and advance the project.

The Thai government is seeking financing for a project estimated to cost at least $28.6 billion. The Bangkok Post reported last October that the state-owned China Harbour Engineering Co was considering a contribution, according to the Thai government. Additionally, Hong Kong property developer New World Development has shown interest. Without the government’s push for the project, contractors may not need to appear immediately, so it is important to consider that China is taking it seriously. However, challenges may arise at the administrative level, even if China supports the project. China would likely seek a favorable deal similar to other Belt and Road Initiative projects, while stakeholders from Bangkok to Washington may question it. But It is clear that Thailand’s ambitious project will not advance without Chinese assistance. If China invests some money, it stands to gain significant political, economic, and strategic benefits.